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View Full Version : What if we stand still?



5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-12-2007, 12:55 PM
I know this will not be a popular idea to most of you, but I wonder if it might be wise to stand pat this offseason and see what happens going into the all-star break. Hear me out here, if we make no moves we may not compete this year, but I think even with some desperate moves it's still a coin toss as to whether they
will work out especially with pitching. What if we saved our money and touted prospects and waited for next years FA class of pitchers which looks much deeper. Dunn will be need to be signed to a LTC of course for this to pan out, but I just don't like the idea of trading away young cheap talent for pitchers that are and will continue to get more and more expensive. Say we trade Votto, and Hamilton for a pitcher like Garza and he blows his arm out, that would be devistating at this point. I say if we are going to make any moves this year lets get rid of some older players and maybe get less in return than a Garza, Cain type and continue to get younger and shave the payroll to where we can sign a monster free agent or two next year when there is more to choose from. We've waited this long, and if the FO came out and told the fans that this was there plan then I think I could stomach it as long as they followed through. Just a thought.

UK Reds Fan
11-12-2007, 01:04 PM
We could stand still..and it be reasonable to some.

1. I would at minimum like to see some low offers w/incentives for pitchers coming off rough years. Clement type pitcher comes to mind.

I think we can possibly compete with everday lineup and BP (Maybe..maybe). But starting pitching will be a hole in 3-5 spots. One may round out for us (Belisle) but the other 2 spots will be just as likely to bottom out yet again.

But in the end, if we hold pat while terrible deals go thru, then fine and we'll be there til July to sell Hatteberg, Griff, Freel or Weathers if applicable for whatever interests the team.

ChatterRed
11-12-2007, 01:15 PM
I know this will not be a popular idea to most of you, but I wonder if it might be wise to stand pat this offseason and see what happens going into the all-star break. Hear me out here, if we make no moves we may not compete this year, but I think even with some desperate moves it's still a coin toss as to whether they
will work out especially with pitching. What if we saved our money and touted prospects and waited for next years FA class of pitchers which looks much deeper. Dunn will be need to be signed to a LTC of course for this to pan out, but I just don't like the idea of trading away young cheap talent for pitchers that are and will continue to get more and more expensive. Say we trade Votto, and Hamilton for a pitcher like Garza and he blows his arm out, that would be devistating at this point. I say if we are going to make any moves this year lets get rid of some older players and maybe get less in return than a Garza, Cain type and continue to get younger and shave the payroll to where we can sign a monster free agent or two next year when there is more to choose from. We've waited this long, and if the FO came out and told the fans that this was there plan then I think I could stomach it as long as they followed through. Just a thought.

I'm not opposed to this.

Only deal I make is for Kazmir, Peavy, or Bedard. Other than signing a free agent closer........I don't really want to trade for anyone but a number one starter.

The Cowboy
11-12-2007, 01:15 PM
All I would like to see is a commitment to win and by that I want to see them try to get better. We are a decent team if we stand pat, but we are one pitcher away from being a good team IMO.

hippie07
11-12-2007, 01:18 PM
Even if we stand pat - I think we should still dip into FA for bullpen help - at least a closer. Also, if we stand pat, I wouldn't sign Dunn to a LTC and I buy off Griffey. Hamilton steps into Dunn's shoes and Bruce steps into Griffey's shoes and we play a defensive CFer. Without Dunn & Griffey we free up at least $25 which we turn around and purchase Santana. Then we **cross-fingers** and hope that Bailey & Cueto are ready to be dominant in 2009. Making our starting rotation:
Santana
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto

and a lineup of:
fast defensive CFer
Phillips
Hamilton
Bruce
Votto
EdE
Gonzales
Catcher (don't know if Ross is here in '09)

That's not too bad ... especially if Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Cueto, & Bailey turn out to be the studs we all hope they'll be... but ... that's alotta finger-crossing, IMO, but if it all pans out - I think we'll be pretty good.

It might be the safest way to go as a GM, but it's not the way I would go about it if I were GM unless none of the excellent SP touted to be on the market this offseason were actually on the market, if that were the case then I think I would stand pat .... but w/ the additioin of a closer, of course ;-)

UK Reds Fan
11-12-2007, 01:22 PM
Very true, if we're serious in thinking that Hamilton and Bruce are the future and that both are better served by playing a corner OF spot...then shedding Griff (no brainer) and Dunn is going to be a decision we have to make and put it into pitching.

AmarilloRed
11-12-2007, 02:40 PM
I think that might be the best choice. Belisle and Bailey are likely to show a lot of improvement next year, and we are likely to see both Cueto and Maloney the second half of the year. Our young bullpen pitchers could be considered to be much better next year, and I would prefer our outstanding prospects to stay on the Reds. There really is not much out in free agency, and I would be very hesitant to trade any of our top prospects unles we got a #1-#2 back in return.

GoReds33
11-12-2007, 04:16 PM
You make a good point. I don't know what would happen if we stand pat. I am not a big fan of the idea though. I would prefer signing a couple bullpen pitchers. As the rotation goes though, I would like to see them let that work itself out. With Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney coming up, there seems to be plenty of talent to fill up the rotation.

UPRedsFan
11-12-2007, 04:38 PM
Standing pat on big trades may make sense for start of season. I'm afraid the asking price for Kazmir/Peavy/Bedard will be too steep.

But we do need a #5 starter. Can't start the season with Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Bailey? and Shearn/Ramirez/Maloney??? May need to sign a Lieber or Lohse. We also have some spare parts that could be dealt for bullpen or a #5 starter (i.e. Freel, Hatteburg, Cantu, or Hopper).

We can see what mid-season brings whether there's a deal out there for Dunn or Griffey that makes sense to make room for Bruce.

Will M
11-12-2007, 04:57 PM
Harang is a workhorse. Arroyo is fragile. 2007 was Belisle's 1rst year as a starter. Bailey will be on pitch limits. Cueto will be in AAA. Therefore we need someone to eat innings in 2007.
We don't want the young arms to fall off.
Also we have seen what Arroyo does when overused, don't get him injured simply because we have no one to take the mound.
We NEED another starter for 2008.
Cueto-Shearns-Maloney-hopefully Elizardo can be in AAA to start the season.

Signing another Stanton/Weathers/geriatric releiver is not what we need. BUT, even if the goal is to build for 2009+ then we could add a pitcher or two under age 30 this offseason.

So while I will be ok with no huge trades/signings I don't want to do nothing this offseason.

Krivsky has actually shown great talent in adding to the talent in the organization. Where he has struggled is in managing a 40 man roster & a few bad short term signings ( Stanton, Cormier ).

Old NDN
11-12-2007, 05:42 PM
I know this will not be a popular idea to most of you, but I wonder if it might be wise to stand pat this offseason and see what happens going into the all-star break. Hear me out here, if we make no moves we may not compete this year, but I think even with some desperate moves it's still a coin toss as to whether they
will work out especially with pitching. What if we saved our money and touted prospects and waited for next years FA class of pitchers which looks much deeper. Dunn will be need to be signed to a LTC of course for this to pan out, but I just don't like the idea of trading away young cheap talent for pitchers that are and will continue to get more and more expensive. Say we trade Votto, and Hamilton for a pitcher like Garza and he blows his arm out, that would be devistating at this point. I say if we are going to make any moves this year lets get rid of some older players and maybe get less in return than a Garza, Cain type and continue to get younger and shave the payroll to where we can sign a monster free agent or two next year when there is more to choose from. We've waited this long, and if the FO came out and told the fans that this was there plan then I think I could stomach it as long as they followed through. Just a thought.

I'm not opposed to standing pat. I agree with the person in another thread that said we as Reds fans tend to overestimate the value of our young prosects. I just don't see Cincinnati as being where "monster free agents" , especially pitchers, want to sign unless we grossly overpay.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-12-2007, 05:46 PM
You make a good point. I don't know what would happen if we stand pat. I am not a big fan of the idea though. I would prefer signing a couple bullpen pitchers. As the rotation goes though, I would like to see them let that work itself out. With Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney coming up, there seems to be plenty of talent to fill up the rotation.
I agree on signing someone for the pen, I just don't want to see any of the young guys go. We have a great core of young talent that could serve us well for a long time. About the bullpen, all you would need to add IMO is a closer. Lets say we are able to sign Cordero that gives us.
Bray
Cout
Stanton(not bad if used sparingly in match-up situations)
Maj(could rebound after full recoup.)
Weathers
Burton
Cordero
Looks much better when you can slide Weathers into the slot where we had most of our trouble last year.

Bigredfan#1
11-12-2007, 06:50 PM
I know this will not be a popular idea to most of you, but I wonder if it might be wise to stand pat this offseason and see what happens going into the all-star break. Hear me out here, if we make no moves we may not compete this year, but I think even with some desperate moves it's still a coin toss as to whether they
will work out especially with pitching. What if we saved our money and touted prospects and waited for next years FA class of pitchers which looks much deeper. Dunn will be need to be signed to a LTC of course for this to pan out, but I just don't like the idea of trading away young cheap talent for pitchers that are and will continue to get more and more expensive. Say we trade Votto, and Hamilton for a pitcher like Garza and he blows his arm out, that would be devistating at this point. I say if we are going to make any moves this year lets get rid of some older players and maybe get less in return than a Garza, Cain type and continue to get younger and shave the payroll to where we can sign a monster free agent or two next year when there is more to choose from. We've waited this long, and if the FO came out and told the fans that this was there plan then I think I could stomach it as long as they followed through. Just a thought.


I really think that standing pat would not be the worst idea, although I think our greatest need is a closer ala Cordero! I say sign him and hang onto the young talent and then if we are in the thick of it at the half make a trade. OF course if someone falls into our laps we sure better not reject it. I think trading Dunn, Votto, Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, Philips or Harang would be a major major mistake. We will never be able to compete on the open market, we have to develop talent. We are not deep in talent right now so I semi want to stand pat - sign a closer!!

ChatterRed
11-12-2007, 06:50 PM
Even if we stand pat - I think we should still dip into FA for bullpen help - at least a closer. Also, if we stand pat, I wouldn't sign Dunn to a LTC and I buy off Griffey. Hamilton steps into Dunn's shoes and Bruce steps into Griffey's shoes and we play a defensive CFer. Without Dunn & Griffey we free up at least $25 which we turn around and purchase Santana. Then we **cross-fingers** and hope that Bailey & Cueto are ready to be dominant in 2009. Making our starting rotation:
Santana
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto

and a lineup of:
fast defensive CFer
Phillips
Hamilton
Bruce
Votto
EdE
Gonzales
Catcher (don't know if Ross is here in '09)

That's not too bad ... especially if Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Cueto, & Bailey turn out to be the studs we all hope they'll be... but ... that's alotta finger-crossing, IMO, but if it all pans out - I think we'll be pretty good.

It might be the safest way to go as a GM, but it's not the way I would go about it if I were GM unless none of the excellent SP touted to be on the market this offseason were actually on the market, if that were the case then I think I would stand pat .... but w/ the additioin of a closer, of course ;-)


I hate to admit it, but I never thought about just letting Dunn and Griffey walk and just keeping Hamilton, bringing up Bruce, and sticking Hopper in the other spot and letting him leadoff. Then you have a blossoming infield of Votto, Phillips, Gonzalez/Keppinger and EE. Other than Phillips, you're not paying that much for any position player and you can dump money into starting pitching.

Interesting idea. If only they do it.

redsfanmia
11-12-2007, 07:18 PM
If we could sign a closer I would be fine with the rest of the team staying as is and Bailey and Cueto in the rotation.

hippie07
11-12-2007, 07:37 PM
I hate to admit it, but I never thought about just letting Dunn and Griffey walk and just keeping Hamilton, bringing up Bruce, and sticking Hopper in the other spot and letting him leadoff. Then you have a blossoming infield of Votto, Phillips, Gonzalez/Keppinger and EE. Other than Phillips, you're not paying that much for any position player and you can dump money into starting pitching.

Interesting idea. If only they do it.

Yeah, and you're talking about a completely home-grown group of starting position players (w/ the exception of Gonzalez - I consider Hamilton & Phillips "our" prospects) ... that would be pretty neat!

I know Dunn is home grown too, but I really LOVE Hamilton and I think his production next year will convince us that Dunn's too expensive and expendable and.. as a plus, Hammy would gives us an excellent glove for a LFer!!!

gedred69
11-12-2007, 08:43 PM
Standing semi-pat is worth considering, especially if what is needed to close a deal costs too dearly. Who would another team want for a #1? For that matter, what would they want for a #2-#4? (We already have #5's). Point being, the price could be lop-sided, not in the Reds favor.

I have to disagree with whoever it was said we didn't have a lot of prospects, I think this franchise is on the verge of being, "loaded". It is beginning to look like a bright Sun is rising in the very near future, that may well shine for several years.

Vada Pinson Fan
11-12-2007, 09:52 PM
"...If we stand still" Say Hello again to 5th place.

AmarilloRed
11-12-2007, 11:38 PM
I think one thing to remember is that many of our pitchers are young and have a good chance to improve in 2008. I think both Belisle and Bailey will have much better years in 2008, and Cueto and Maloney will have impressive debuts next year. Coutlangas, Mcbeth, and Salmon will be much better, and Hamilton, Votto and Encarcion will also have much better years. We may not make many off-season moves, but it is entirely possible we will still be a much improved team next year.

kaldaniels
11-13-2007, 12:03 AM
"...If we stand still" Say Hello again to 5th place.

Stand still, finish in 5th next year, finish 1st the year after.

OR

Make desparation moves, finish 3rd next year, finish 6th the year after.

Point - If the right move isn't there...yes, stand still.

roby
11-13-2007, 12:18 AM
Stand still, finish in 5th next year, finish 1st the year after.

OR

Make desparation moves, finish 3rd next year, finish 6th the year after.

Point - If the right move isn't there...yes, stand still.

I vote for Krivsky working his magic and getting a couple of pitchers who have been given up on, like he did with Philips and Hamilton..for about the same price as Philips and Hamilton. :thumbup:

mroby85
11-13-2007, 02:07 AM
Stand still, finish in 5th next year, finish 1st the year after.

OR

Make desparation moves, finish 3rd next year, finish 6th the year after.

Point - If the right move isn't there...yes, stand still.


there is no reason for them to HAVE to make a desperation move. You can't tell me there is no one in free agency that would help this team.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-13-2007, 11:57 AM
there is no reason for them to HAVE to make a desperation move. You can't tell me there is no one in free agency that would help this team.
Oh there is, I just don't know if we can afford to pay them. The issue I have with the FA's this year is that the "affordable" are not much better than what we already have.

Orenda
11-13-2007, 02:33 PM
Oh there is, I just don't know if we can afford to pay them. The issue I have with the FA's this year is that the "affordable" are not much better than what we already have.

We don't have to pay a thing. Don't forget the reds are a business owned by Mr.Castellini who has already stated his intentions to "Bring championship baseball back to Cincinnati." I haven't seen the reds yearly income statement but the game of baseball has never experienced economic success like its experiencing now. So as a paying customer isn't it time you started to demand more? How is it that a franchise that hasn't reached the postseason (which is the mark of success in this business?) in over a decade be a profitable organization? Why should I pay money to continually be letdown by the product I'm paying for and on top of that be bombarded by advertisements?
Some of you will point out to previous ownership. Marge Schott wrecked the franchise you say.. maybe, but what about the Marlins, and D-Backs? 3 World Series titles combined since the reds last reached the postseason. Not to mention another appearance by the Rockies this season. They point out a smaller market size, while ignoring success of other similar markets. The new gm, replaces veteran relievers Kent Mercker and Chris Hammond with veteran lefties Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier and Eddie Guardado. Making moves for the sake of making moves isn't a good plan for success (just ask Jerry Narron), but making business moves small or major to improve your product should always be the goal, and another year of doing nothing certainly isn't that. It's a sad day if we accept the no move is better than a bad move mantra and another off-season goes by with reds fans outside looking in. So how did we get to the point were this is tolerated?

The answer I think is this: Like most who post here, we are the great baseball consumer. My name is Summerplight and I'm a reds fan. Like most I was hooked when I was young, it all started out innocent enough with a few summer nights of hot dogs and nosebleeds. Back then I was just one of the many voices that could be heard mimicking the PA announcer as BAAARRRRRRY LAAAARRKIIIIN came to the plate. However, like some people do I went awry, instead of hotdog's and soda's, it became hotdogs and beer, no frosty malt for me. Instead of sharing the joy of the 8 year old boy sitting in front of me who has just caught his first and most likely his last home run ball, I bombard the reliever who has just coughed up another game winner. As Danny Graves exits, he shows me just how much he cares with the old number 1, luckily for me it's about as effective as his dead arm, so like any Jason Larue would do, I shake it off. And as for the 8 year old boy this is his introduction to baseball. My instructions to him are simple but stern. THROW IT BACK! Suddenly me and Danny Graves are starting to become the bad guys. He's mad we can't remember his better days and I’m mad he's no longer contributing to mine. Luckily for most of you, the white-knight owner releases Danny and has his ushers show me on my way. But just because we don't always do things the right way doesn't mean we don't have a valid point from time to time. If I took the time to type this and you took the time to read it then it probably means we go beyond casual fan. We are guilty of obsessing way too much over who is going to be the lefty bat off the bench. Our voices are mostly ignored by those who make the decisions, however we do have some influence with the casual fan, and that is the fan base that ownership can't afford to lose. If you can sway these simpletons then you are doing your part to help alleviate all of our pains. How many people talk reds baseball to you? Change their thinking, demand that you endorse a business worth endorsing. End of rant

kaldaniels
11-14-2007, 12:14 AM
there is no reason for them to HAVE to make a desperation move. You can't tell me there is no one in free agency that would help this team.

Look...what I'm saying is of course...FA will be signed, transactions will be made...its the offseason, come on. But, many on here think a significant move needs to be made to show that the Reds are serious about winning. If one can be made that fits the payroll, great...if not...don't make a foolish move just to appease some of the fanbase who are looking for a quick fix rather than work on an organizational overhaul, which I believe is in process.

AmarilloRed
11-14-2007, 12:21 AM
I suspect that Krivsky might have a busy off-season. He is going into his last year as GM, and I expect he wants to do all he can to bring winning winning baseball back to Cincinnati. Another losing season and Castellini might start the GM carousel again.