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dougdirt
11-13-2007, 10:14 PM
What does everyone think about having a Redszone top prospect list? Each day someone (I will take it by the horns if we want to do this) will post a new poll with 5-10 prospects and we can discuss and vote for who we think is the best prospect listed that day and eventually we can get a community list of 20-30 guys. Its pretty dead in the minor league forum these days and I thought maybe this could spark some conversation of our guys.

Thoughts?

AmarilloRed
11-13-2007, 11:11 PM
I think you and Reds44 would probably be best at leading a project of that sort, and it seems like a good idea. I have some knowledge of the top prospects, but do not have the necessary knowledge to come up with a poll like this. I am not sure if all members have the necessary knowledge to discuss all the players in our minor league system; however I am willing to give it a try.

dougdirt
11-13-2007, 11:17 PM
Well hopefully people can argue why or why not a player should be ranked here or there and we can all learn more about our guys.

Shaknb8k
11-13-2007, 11:22 PM
I 2nd the motion. I know a little bit about the farm system like what amarillo said and i can throw my 2 cents in when talking about the prospects but I dont think im qualified to come up with the five to put into the poll (Is Gookie Dawkins still a prospect? lol). I say start up a poll called something like Redszone Top Prospects we vote and discuss, the majority takes that spot then we move down the list and continue on. Sounds like a good way to keep me checking the minor league board.

by the way doug your blog has made its way onto my daily internet routine for what ever its worth. As far as im concerned what you say on the minor league board is written into law. I dont comment a lot on here but i enjoy your post as well as everyone on the minor league board that keeps it going. Like i said im all for this "Prospect Poll"

Mario-Rijo
11-14-2007, 12:57 AM
What does everyone think about having a Redszone top prospect list? Each day someone (I will take it by the horns if we want to do this) will post a new poll with 5-10 prospects and we can discuss and vote for who we think is the best prospect listed that day and eventually we can get a community list of 20-30 guys. Its pretty dead in the minor league forum these days and I thought maybe this could spark some conversation of our guys.

Thoughts?

DD, I am not quite sure what it is you mean to accomplish here. Are we compiling a list of REDS top Prospects by a majority vote as to who is the best prospect? And I am assuming here that by best prospect we are aiming to get who has the best shot of being the best at the major league level and on down to a cutoff where that prospect perhaps has absolutely no shot of playing at the Major League level?

I guess I need more information to understand exactly what you are getting but I am all for it. Hopefully we can compile a list that will keep it interesting straight through until Pitchers and Catchers report.

mlbfan30
11-14-2007, 01:35 AM
We did this before last year... it's not new. A community top 30 might work..... with a new poll every 3 days. That's 3 months worth. You can list all the top 10 players and we vote on the best one, and it gets taken off for the next poll. When it gets to the 20+ range it will be more even but it should be fine.

mth123
11-14-2007, 04:54 AM
I'm for it, but the list of candidates needs to be pretty long. Many have differing ideas of where guys should end up. When you get down to number 5, the ceiling faction will want Stubbs and Frazier while the guys who give more credance to likeliness to contribute may want Roenicke or Rosales.

How about a 2 day process for each spot? On the first day, we run a nominations thread where everyone who wants to can nominate a guy for a spot. Maybe the thread could go something like "here are the 10 players that the administrator has nominated as candidates for the next propspect poll. Please make any additional nominations in this thread."

If anyone wants to "campaign" for anyone not on the list, they can post a nomination with as much reasoning as they would like.

The next day, the poll would include the guys on the original list of 10 plus any players that received nominations. At the end of that day. the vote for that spot would close.

On day three, all the contenders from the previous vote would stay on the list and be posted in the nominations thread and additional guys could be nominated for a day. On day 4 there would be a vote and so on.

40 players would take us right up to Pitchers and Catchers time I think.

camisadelgolf
11-14-2007, 05:17 AM
A faster way to do it, and I'm condoning it--it's just an idea--would be for anyone who wants to participate to write up a top-20 list, and then we can assign points for where each person ranks (#1 is 20 points, #2 is 19 points, and so on). Then, after 20-50 lists or so, we can tally the points and show the rankings.

icehole3
11-14-2007, 06:28 AM
We did this before last year... it's not new. A community top 30 might work..... with a new poll every 3 days. That's 3 months worth. You can list all the top 10 players and we vote on the best one, and it gets taken off for the next poll. When it gets to the 20+ range it will be more even but it should be fine.

I like that ideal, last year that sparked a lot of interest

camisadelgolf
11-14-2007, 08:23 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54085

Here's the list from last year:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Travis Wood
6. Drew Stubbs
7. Chris Valaika
8. Sam LeCure
9. Milton Loo
10. Sean Watson
11. Paul Janish (59 points)
12. David Shafer (48 points)
13. Calvin Medlock (37 points)
14. Tyler Pelland (29 points)
15. Josh Hamilton (25 points)
16t. Josh Ravin (24 points)
16t. Cody Strait (24 points)
18. Justin Turner (16 points)
19. Jon Coutlangus (11 points)
20. Wirfin Obispo (9 points)

OTHERS: Dumatrait-8, Anderson & Dorn-6, Fisher & Lutz-5, Parker & Salmon-4, Gonzales & Gutierrez-2, Asadoorian, Guevara & Rosales- 1

klw
11-14-2007, 08:33 AM
Quick question (probably long answer)- Who qualifies as a prospect? No MLB experience or ROY eligible? To put it another way, do Bailey and Votto qualify for the list?

camisadelgolf
11-14-2007, 10:26 AM
I think the consensus says a prospect is someone who is still RoY eligible.

Joseph
11-14-2007, 10:53 AM
A faster way to do it, and I'm condoning it--it's just an idea--would be for anyone who wants to participate to write up a top-20 list, and then we can assign points for where each person ranks (#1 is 20 points, #2 is 19 points, and so on). Then, after 20-50 lists or so, we can tally the points and show the rankings.


Cam, I'm really in favor of this idea. Taking maybe even the major ranking places BA, BP etc and ranking their lists in the same way, while a number of RZers also do that and see if we can come up with an official RZ list.

Then of course we can use the info we already have and do our own write ups for each of the top XX players.

dougdirt
11-14-2007, 11:13 AM
Cam, I'm really in favor of this idea. Taking maybe even the major ranking places BA, BP etc and ranking their lists in the same way, while a number of RZers also do that and see if we can come up with an official RZ list.

Then of course we can use the info we already have and do our own write ups for each of the top XX players.

The only reason I don't like that idea as much, as it wont spark any conversation or insight that others have on players that some of the rest of us might not have or know. Say we get to #8 and someone wants to vote Player X while the majority of us are going with player C, they would make their argument for player X and maybe it gives us all something that we never thought about before with that player or maybe some new information we didnt have on that player.

Joseph
11-14-2007, 11:18 AM
C'mon Doug, this is Redszone, you know we're all gonna pick the list apart after its done no matter what. :)

You do bring up a valid point, with this being the minor league forum I think there are going to be more who want to discuss it in depth likely than many topic floated in other areas. The participants here are typically fewer but more hard core.

RedsManRick
11-14-2007, 12:21 PM
Doug, was it you who did the top 40 list recently? Perhaps a link to that blog at the top of the thread would give people a place to start. Or alternately, we (you) could simply compile a "guys to consider" list by position and level.

dougdirt
11-14-2007, 12:51 PM
Several posters have done top 30 and 40 prospects recently. I think the guys to consider will work itself out once we get past the top 4 prospects and people start making nominations and giving their reasons why they think they should be places.

texasdave
11-14-2007, 01:40 PM
Here's an idea. Every day a thread is started about a prospect. Everyone can contribute their thoughts on this guy - pro or con. The following day, after mulling things over everyone votes on that prospect, perhaps on a scale of 1 to 10. If you take two days per prospect that will allow everyone to discuss and vote on about 45 prospects before the start of spring training. You could speed up the process, after the first day, by having everyone vote on prospect a while in a separate thread discussing prospect b. This would effectively allow about 90 prospects to be discussed/voted upon before spring training.

TOBTTReds
11-14-2007, 04:15 PM
The only reason I don't like that idea as much, as it wont spark any conversation or insight that others have on players that some of the rest of us might not have or know. Say we get to #8 and someone wants to vote Player X while the majority of us are going with player C, they would make their argument for player X and maybe it gives us all something that we never thought about before with that player or maybe some new information we didnt have on that player.

I agree. Plus the polls for each slot pro-longs the process, and this is something that should keep us busy for a while.

dougdirt
11-14-2007, 04:54 PM
OK guys, I am going to give it a shot and put up a poll for #1.

Mario-Rijo
11-14-2007, 05:22 PM
Ok I know what you mean now, I recall last years. :thumbup: Which does bring me to my next point.

Mario-Rijo
11-14-2007, 05:40 PM
I'm for it, but the list of candidates needs to be pretty long. Many have differing ideas of where guys should end up. When you get down to number 5, the ceiling faction will want Stubbs and Frazier while the guys who give more credance to likeliness to contribute may want Roenicke or Rosales.

This is the thing in a nutshell too me, what is it we are shooting for here? The top 40 with the most and perhaps best potential, I.E. Ceiling guys? The Top 40 who are actually the most likely to contribute regardless of how little that may be, I.E. Contribute guys? Top 40 guys who have the most value both on the field or in a deal? Or does that even matter, because it seems after approximately 4-8 guys things will become confusing as to whom is truly the best prospect. I think it helps to have a goal in mind, so it's a truer set of rankings.

Does anyone follow me here? I myself would like to see it be a value based approach. Because let's say for example you have Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce entrenched in the OF for the next 5 yrs. Then what does that do to Drew Stubbs' ranking that through no real fault of his own (assuming he pans out the way we'd all hope for) he is stuck in AAA in say '10 because they wanna keep him playing everyday and he cannot do it at this level?

If he has a true value # then he isn't hurt by things he cannot control or more for this exercise things that he may potentially not be able to control. I mean does the idea that he could potentially get stuck in a position like that lower his perceived value now?

camisadelgolf
11-15-2007, 04:12 AM
I think it's okay if we all have our own ranking systems. Some people put more emphasis on ceiling while others put more emphasis on the likelihood of a player reaching his potential. In the long run, I think it will all balance out.

dougdirt
11-15-2007, 10:10 AM
This is the thing in a nutshell too me, what is it we are shooting for here? The top 40 with the most and perhaps best potential, I.E. Ceiling guys? The Top 40 who are actually the most likely to contribute regardless of how little that may be, I.E. Contribute guys? Top 40 guys who have the most value both on the field or in a deal? Or does that even matter, because it seems after approximately 4-8 guys things will become confusing as to whom is truly the best prospect. I think it helps to have a goal in mind, so it's a truer set of rankings.

Does anyone follow me here? I myself would like to see it be a value based approach. Because let's say for example you have Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce entrenched in the OF for the next 5 yrs. Then what does that do to Drew Stubbs' ranking that through no real fault of his own (assuming he pans out the way we'd all hope for) he is stuck in AAA in say '10 because they wanna keep him playing everyday and he cannot do it at this level?

If he has a true value # then he isn't hurt by things he cannot control or more for this exercise things that he may potentially not be able to control. I mean does the idea that he could potentially get stuck in a position like that lower his perceived value now?

Its all about how you want to look at prospects. Some people look at cielings only, others look at closeness to the majors mixed in with cielings, others look at performance for the most part.... its all up to the voter as to who they think goes where. There are tons of differing views on who to evaluate prospects, just go with the one you think is the best one to you.

RedsManRick
11-15-2007, 01:36 PM
Would you rather have:

40% shot at a decent middle reliever, 40% shot at fringe reliever, and 20% shot at bust

or

10% shot at a plus CF, 20% at decent CF, 20% a fringe CF, and 50% bust

I'm not sure how the heck I'd answer that question.

In my mind, the easiest way to "do the math" is to do the following; ignore the needs of the 25 man roster and the various strengths and weaknesses of the organization and then answer the question: Which guy would would I rather have in my system if I was drafting from scratch? Or alternately, would I trade player A for player B?

Answering that question allows you go with a gut feeling which in reality synthesizes all the various factors in way that is very difficult to do consciously.

camisadelgolf
11-15-2007, 03:27 PM
10% shot at a plus CF, 20% at decent CF, 20% a fringe CF, and 40% bust

What happens to the last 10%? Or was there some weird rounding off going on?

RedsManRick
11-15-2007, 04:33 PM
What happens to the last 10%? Or was there some weird rounding off going on?

:oops:

mth123
11-15-2007, 06:44 PM
Would you rather have:

40% shot at a decent middle reliever, 40% shot at fringe reliever, and 20% shot at bust

or

10% shot at a plus CF, 20% at decent CF, 20% a fringe CF, and 50% bust

I'm not sure how the heck I'd answer that question.

In my mind, the easiest way to "do the math" is to do the following; ignore the needs of the 25 man roster and the various strengths and weaknesses of the organization and then answer the question: Which guy would would I rather have in my system if I was drafting from scratch? Or alternately, would I trade player A for player B?

Answering that question allows you go with a gut feeling which in reality synthesizes all the various factors in way that is very difficult to do consciously.

I like the reliever of these two. I'd guess the ones who like the CF probably think the "Plus" % is higher.