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hippie07
11-16-2007, 02:49 PM
The Reds glaring problem heading into 2008 is pitching. Let's play WK - how would you fix it?

Obviously the Reds have a good 1/2 punch w/ Harang(1) and Arroyo(2/3). I see a couple of different strategies the Reds might do:

1. Harang & Arroyo and pray for rain, part two: do nothing, and hope that Bailey, Belisle, and some combo of Maloney/Livingston/Ramirez steps up and contributes. The Reds could add another Saarloos type for basically nothing that could compete for spot in the rotation.

2. Trade for a prospect to add in the mix of who might contribute - someone like Garza. I don't think this is a bad idea as long as it can be done cheaply. Some say it would take Votto or Hamilton, I would maybe do Votto but no way for Hamilton, and I'm thinking either would be a little steep. I know I'm gonna catch heat for this, but we have a couple spare parts that the Twins covet.... Hatteberg (they have particular man-love for and would like him as a DH), Freel (they're looking for a defensive CFer to help the pain of the departure of Hunter)... I think a combo of these guys and a promising pitching prospect (Maloney?) and $$$ might get this deal done **crosses fingers**- thoughts?

3.Sign a year or two pitcher at the end of his career to hold space and give time for the young ones to develop - Livan, Lieber, Glavine?

4. Use our biggest asset (star prospects) to land an young, ace pitcher for a couple/few years - Bedard or Kazmir (prefer Kazmir 'cuz he's guaranteed for 3 years. This is the type of high risk blockbuster trade that I think would really help the club the most in the long run, but it's something that would be controversial and the Reds probably won't do it.

If the Reds can do 2 & 3 and still have enough money to pay for some bullpen help ... then I do that. If not.. I do 2 & 4, targeting Kazmir.

Your thoughts?

BEETTLEBUG
11-16-2007, 03:12 PM
I do 2-3 but not Glavine.

Will M
11-16-2007, 10:03 PM
1. Improve the pitching by getting rid of Griffey. The Reds can't have a DH in left, a RF in center & a DH in right.
An outfield of Dunn-Bruce-Hamilton is much better defensively than Dunn-Hamilton-Griffey.

2. If the Reds can't come up with a pitcher equal or better than Arroyo then they need to find an innings eater for 2008.
A rotation for 2009 of Harang-Arroyo-Belisle-Bailey-Cueto could be very very good but I think in 2008 both Bailey and Cueto's innings need to be watched closley. Also Arroyo is BAD when he is overused.

3. Find one ( or two ideally ) under 30 relievers who are better than average. Wood? Riske? Japanese pitcher? trade?
The Reds have a LOT of POTENTIAALY good relievers but most are question marks for 2008.

hippie07
11-17-2007, 12:05 AM
Does anyone know or can provide a link to which starting pitchers are projected to become free agents for 2009?

hippie07
11-17-2007, 12:07 AM
1. Improve the pitching by getting rid of Griffey. The Reds can't have a DH in left, a RF in center & a DH in right.
An outfield of Dunn-Bruce-Hamilton is much better defensively than Dunn-Hamilton-Griffey.

2. If the Reds can't come up with a pitcher equal or better than Arroyo then they need to find an innings eater for 2008.
A rotation for 2009 of Harang-Arroyo-Belisle-Bailey-Cueto could be very very good but I think in 2008 both Bailey and Cueto's innings need to be watched closley. Also Arroyo is BAD when he is overused.

3. Find one ( or two ideally ) under 30 relievers who are better than average. Wood? Riske? Japanese pitcher? trade?
The Reds have a LOT of POTENTIAALY good relievers but most are question marks for 2008.

If Belisle is our #3 starter in 2009 I will cry ..

AmarilloRed
11-17-2007, 12:07 AM
1 and 3. I think Belisle and Bailey will do much better next year than most people think, and we could see Maloney and Cueto by the All-Star break. I would not be averse to trading one of our prospects for a starting pitcher, but I would not give up multiple prospects for one pitcher. I think we could see some movement in free agency, with the Reds offering 1 year deals(possibly with incentives) to some veterans. I could also see the Reds shoring up the bullpen in free agency.

hippie07
11-17-2007, 12:22 AM
Okay, so I found a list... alotta people kept talking about how the free agent market for starting pitching is going to be much better in 2009 so we should do the best we can to be competitive in 2008 and make a splash in that market... I think that's a possibility but I still hope the Reds acquire a Garza-like prospect and/or sign a 1-yr veteran or incentive deal ... I think we need to impress a FA w/ our competitiveness this coming year to show that we are serious about winning if we have any hope of landing a top-tier guy. Think about it we're not in a large metro area, or a beach town, and we play in an anti-pitcher park... we're either going to have to overpay or convince him that we're going to play for a series (or both). I remember Sean Casey and others calling Eric Milton to try and convince him to come play for the Reds....

Here's the list from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html
Starting Pitchers
* - player whose contract includes 2009 option
Kris Bensen BAL
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Jon Garland CWS
Tom Glavine NYM
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * OAK
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings HOU
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza OAK
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Matt Morris * PIT
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Jake Peavy * SD
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez KC
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior CHC
Horatio Ramirez SEA
C.C. Sabathia CLE
Johan Santana MIN
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez BOS
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko LAD
Claudio Vargas MIL
Woody Williams HOU
Randy Wolf LAD

Some other posters have shown that our player payroll will be really cheap in 2009, even if we keep Dunn, we should have enough money to buy at least 1 of the starter of our choice, so..... pick your pleasure!

*BaseClogger*
11-17-2007, 01:39 AM
I really think Garland or Lowe would be good fits for Cincy...

ChatterRed
11-17-2007, 03:02 AM
The Reds glaring problem heading into 2008 is pitching. Let's play WK - how would you fix it?

Obviously the Reds have a good 1/2 punch w/ Harang(1) and Arroyo(2/3). I see a couple of different strategies the Reds might do:

1. Harang & Arroyo and pray for rain, part two: do nothing, and hope that Bailey, Belisle, and some combo of Maloney/Livingston/Ramirez steps up and contributes. The Reds could add another Saarloos type for basically nothing that could compete for spot in the rotation.

I hope we don't stand pat.


2. Trade for a prospect to add in the mix of who might contribute - someone like Garza. I don't think this is a bad idea as long as it can be done cheaply. Some say it would take Votto or Hamilton, I would maybe do Votto but no way for Hamilton, and I'm thinking either would be a little steep. I know I'm gonna catch heat for this, but we have a couple spare parts that the Twins covet.... Hatteberg (they have particular man-love for and would like him as a DH), Freel (they're looking for a defensive CFer to help the pain of the departure of Hunter)... I think a combo of these guys and a promising pitching prospect (Maloney?) and $$$ might get this deal done **crosses fingers**- thoughts?

I would not trade any top prospects for Garza. I only want to trade our top prospects for a Peavy, Bedard, or Kazmir. That's it. If we trade a top prospect for Garza, I will be upset.



3.Sign a year or two pitcher at the end of his career to hold space and give time for the young ones to develop - Livan, Lieber, Glavine?


I'm all for this, but apparently we don't have the $$$ to sign a free agent aging pitcher for one or two years.



4. Use our biggest asset (star prospects) to land an young, ace pitcher for a couple/few years - Bedard or Kazmir (prefer Kazmir 'cuz he's guaranteed for 3 years. This is the type of high risk blockbuster trade that I think would really help the club the most in the long run, but it's something that would be controversial and the Reds probably won't do it.

Again, I would only trade our top prospects for Peavy, Bedard, or Kazmir.



If the Reds can do 2 & 3 and still have enough money to pay for some bullpen help ... then I do that. If not.. I do 2 & 4, targeting Kazmir.

Your thoughts?

Well, my "only in my dreams" wish is that we'd trade top prospects for one of either Kazmir, Bedard or Peavy.......then sign a FA aging decent pitcher........and finally spend money on the bullpen. I figure it would add $25-$30 million to the payroll.......and that ain't happening........but I wish it would.

Will M
11-17-2007, 10:04 AM
If Belisle is our #3 starter in 2009 I will cry ..

why?

He is young.

His stuff is as good as Arroyo's.

He was very unlucky this year. Based on average luck and an average defense his ERA should have been ~4.5, he could easily post a 4.25 ERA in 2008 & a 4.00 ERA in 2009.

Plus he is a big guy who should be able to give us 200 innings in 2008 & 200+ in 2009.

hippie07
11-17-2007, 10:53 AM
why?

He is young.

His stuff is as good as Arroyo's.

He was very unlucky this year. Based on average luck and an average defense his ERA should have been ~4.5, he could easily post a 4.25 ERA in 2008 & a 4.00 ERA in 2009.

Plus he is a big guy who should be able to give us 200 innings in 2008 & 200+ in 2009.

I don't mind him in the rotation, but hopefully as a 4 or even better a 5. It's not so much a knock on Belisle as it is on our overall level of starting pitching talent... ideally in 2009, we'll have a legitimate 2 w/ Arroyo at 3, not Belisle...

AmarilloRed
11-17-2007, 03:08 PM
There are things that can be done in free agency to help the Reds. Kerry Wood has let it be known he would be willing to settle for a 2 year deal at 5 million a year. The Cubs will make a hard push for him, but I would like to see the Reds go after both him and Prior.
Wayne's M/O is pretty obvious. He will go after cheap, low-risk, high-reward players and make incremental moves to improve the team.
I would not expect a block buster trade this off-season, and I also would not expect the Reds to try and sign a player like Silva who might not be much better than Belisle for a higher price.He might make a trade to acquire some pitching, but it will be a trade of a player he doesn't think will help the Reds in the future. I base a lot of this on moves Wayne has made in the past.
I think he has lain the groundwork by contacting a number of free agents, but is waiting to see how salary arbitration works out before he signs any free agents. I see that Dec.1 is the last date for the Reds to offer arbitration, so he might be waiting on how that process goes before making any major free agent signings. Belisle and Cantu may not cost much money, but Brandon can be very expensive.

757690
11-18-2007, 01:48 AM
I agree with AmarilloRed.

Basically, you need a 7-8 man rotation during the year, considering injuries. The Reds have a solid two man rotation of Harang and Arroyo. Then they have possibles in Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Shearn, and EZ. That gives them 7 and none of the last 5 are even close to a sure thing. If the Reds can add one or two cheap #4-5 starters, the rotation would be strong enough to compete.

None of those guys are innings eaters, and that is one thing this rotation needs, especially with Arroyo, and if Bailey and/or Cueto make the rotation. There are some potential innings eaters out there, that have (had) great arms, but are coming off injuries and could be had for a cheap one year contract. They would want that, so that they can prove that they can still pitch, and then go for the big bucks next year.
Here is who I think could be had for around $3-4M a year, and who would be worth the risk.

Wood and Prior, Colon, F. Garcia, Jennings, R. Lopez, J. Leiber, W. Miller, R. Wolfe, J. Wright.

The key is signing the one guy who will be back to full strenght next year.

mlbfan30
11-18-2007, 03:01 AM
Out of those Colon may be the best choice because of his past history of being very good and eating and eating innings. Considering he hasn't been healthy and has been bad for the past 2 years, he might be pretty cheap, with a chance of being pretty good.

AmarilloRed
11-18-2007, 09:28 AM
Belisle pitched 170 innings last year, and he could get over 200 this year. It does not make him an innings eater, but he will get some innings in. Elizardo is a minor league free agent, and may not be with the Reds next year.

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2007, 02:36 PM
Here is who I think could be had for around $3-4M a year, and who would be worth the risk.

Wood and Prior, Colon, F. Garcia, Jennings, R. Lopez, J. Leiber, W. Miller, R. Wolfe, J. Wright.

The key is signing the one guy who will be back to full strenght next year.

I think we need to be carefull not to sign another fly ball pitcher like Eric Milton... When you guys come up with pitchers we should pursue, you should look closely at their ground ball rates and their K/9 rates... I would just like to point out that Derek Lowe had be the best ground ball rate in the majors last year by a HUGE margin...

gedred69
11-18-2007, 10:18 PM
Speaking of Colon and Garcia most specifically, what would they cost? One year is fine with me, let 'em prove they can still pitch to the Reds' benefit for a season. If either still has it, it's another season to bring Bailey and Cueto along with less pressure. Although, I think Homer might be able to show where he's at---or at least learn what he needs to work on---with a little bit of, "let's see what you got kid". He showed Jekyll and Hyde last year, did he learn anything from his 1st taste? Or is his ego too big to learn, God I hope he isn't another Tomko, limited pitches and un-coachable to boot......

CySeymour
11-19-2007, 04:22 PM
I think we need to be carefull not to sign another fly ball pitcher like Eric Milton... When you guys come up with pitchers we should pursue, you should look closely at their ground ball rates and their K/9 rates... I would just like to point out that Derek Lowe had be the best ground ball rate in the majors last year by a HUGE margin...

This is a great point. I know I am like a lot of people, and I am getting nervous because I don't hear ANY Reds news...rumors or otherwise. However, no move is better than making a move just for the sake of making one. That's what got the Reds Milton and Ortiz in the first place.

AmarilloRed
11-19-2007, 05:00 PM
You also must look at their BB/9 rates and their BAA. As long as they can keep baserunners off the bases, a solo Hr will not hurt you much.

hippie07
11-26-2007, 06:59 PM
For this year, I used to be of the camp that thought we should trade for pitching, which I still hope we do, but now I'm hoping we hold onto the "big prospect group". I think we should make our big splash in the 2009 market and sign Derek Lowe. For this year, though, even though the 2008 FA market for starting pitchers is a bit weak, I think there's some guys we can take a chance on..

I was thinking about Freddy Garcia, of course it depends on whether he's back from injury... but if he's back to form - maybe he's someone we could sign for a 1/2 yr. deal and get an instant #3 .. leaving Belisle and Bailey to fill out the rotation, w/ hopefully Cueto coming up to fill in any gaps.

The other options would of course be Lieber or Livan... for a 1/2 yr. stop-gap

I know the Reds are probably short on money after the Cordero deal, and a FA signing is unlikely, but we would really only be over budget this year. Next year, (if we keep all of our young talent) we'll have a lot of extra money to play with...

Just wondering what people's thought are on Freddy?? Worth the risk? How much would we have to pay ??

Will M
11-26-2007, 07:04 PM
For this year, I used to be of the camp that thought we should trade for pitching, which I still hope we do, but now I'm hoping we hold onto the "big prospect group". I think we should make our big splash in the 2009 market and sign Derek Lowe. For this year, though, even though the 2008 FA market for starting pitchers is a bit weak, I think there's some guys we can take a chance on..

I was thinking about Freddy Garcia, of course it depends on whether he's back from injury... but if he's back to form - maybe he's someone we could sign for a 1/2 yr. deal and get an instant #3 .. leaving Belisle and Bailey to fill out the rotation, w/ hopefully Cueto coming up to fill in any gaps.

The other options would of course be Lieber or Livan... for a 1/2 yr. stop-gap

I know the Reds are probably short on money after the Cordero deal, and a FA signing is unlikely, but we would really only be over budget this year. Next year, (if we keep all of our young talent) we'll have a lot of extra money to play with...

Just wondering what people's thought are on Freddy?? Worth the risk? How much would we have to pay ??

I would trade griffey, dunn, freel ,hat for a pitcher but NOT Bruce,Hamilton,Votto,EE or Phillips. These 5 are the core young position players to build around.

Garcia is a fly ball pitcher coming off an injury. Pass.

Lieber is OK IMO as a one year stopgap. See how Belisle & Bailey do in the bigs. See how Cueto & Maoloney do in AAA.

hippie07
11-26-2007, 08:41 PM
For this year, I used to be of the camp that thought we should trade for pitching, which I still hope we do, but now I'm hoping we hold onto the "big prospect group". I think we should make our big splash in the 2009 market and sign Derek Lowe. For this year, though, even though the 2008 FA market for starting pitchers is a bit weak, I think there's some guys we can take a chance on..

I was thinking about Freddy Garcia, of course it depends on whether he's back from injury... but if he's back to form - maybe he's someone we could sign for a 1/2 yr. deal and get an instant #3 .. leaving Belisle and Bailey to fill out the rotation, w/ hopefully Cueto coming up to fill in any gaps.

The other options would of course be Lieber or Livan... for a 1/2 yr. stop-gap

I know the Reds are probably short on money after the Cordero deal, and a FA signing is unlikely, but we would really only be over budget this year. Next year, (if we keep all of our young talent) we'll have a lot of extra money to play with...

Just wondering what people's thought are on Freddy?? Worth the risk? How much would we have to pay ??

okay, yeah --- found an article on mlbtraderumors.com .. turns out Garcia won't be ready 'til June but is still looking to get 6-8mil ... probably won't be in our plans