Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #6

[dougdirt]

Vote for the player who you think is the Reds #6 prospect (the best prospect who is not yet on the list). We will go with this as far as you guys want to take it.

I will post a new list every 2 days with 10-15 options to vote on.

If you feel like making an argument on why a guy should be voted here, feel free to vote and state why you voted for that player.

If there is someone that is not currently listed as an option to vote on, vote for 'other' then just state who you want to vote for in the thread.

If there is anyone you would like to see as an option on the next poll, just say so and if they garner enough support, they will be placed on the next poll. Guys with the lowest amount of votes will usually be removed for the next few guys who were talked about in the previous thread.


Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier

[TOBTTReds]

Stubbs is up 2-1, should be a good race!

[Kc61]

I expect a battle between Stubbs and Maloney. Each raises some issues. Stubbs' bat. Maloney his fly ball tendencies. He allowed, if I recall, 19 homers at various stops last year. Still, both are top ten guys, wherever they may land.

I think Roenicke deserves consideration. He's a bit older since he stayed longer at college, and a reliever. But his K rate is excellent as is his ground ball rate. He is a potential closer, certainly a late inning guy, with a pitcher's frame. I may well vote for him.

I think this is a bit high for Travis Wood coming off last season, where he was hurt and didn't have great numbers. Next year is key for him, and he certainly was excellent earlier.

The other way to go here is with pure youth, Mesoraco or Lotzkar. There's a lot to say for Lotzkar who performed so well in his first attempt at pro ball.

[Benihana]

Kc, I appreciate the fact that you are definitely Roenicke's #1 advocate, but I just can't make myself vote for a reliever who is going to be 26 next season and has never pitched above AA. I hope he turns into a great closer for our ballclub, and his peripheral numbers look pretty good. But truly elite young closers have a way of bursting through systems (see Huston Street, Chad Cordero, K-Rod, Ryan Wagner, I mean, er...oops!) Roenicke is doing well but the fact of the matter remains he is going to be 26 in AA, and there really isn't that much differentiating him from other minor league relievers, such as Guevara, Medlock, Pelland, etc.

Meanwhile, I am very much on the fence in terms of the Reds #6 prospect. I really like Wood but he has to show that he can bounce back from this year. Maloney's numbers are good but I can't shake visions of Dumatrait. I can't bring myself to get fired up about Stubbs until he continues his "hot streak" this year. Lotzkar looked great but he is so young. In other words, I can't really bring myself to join one camp yet, so I'll see how the debate plays out...

[M2]

Roenicke's got evil stuff and looks to be a solid bet to be a plus major league pitcher. He may not have come in with a pedigree, but if he keeps up what he did last season, he'll be in the majors at some point in 2008.

Between Roenicke, Stubbs and Maloney, Roenicke seems to me to be the guy who most reasonably can have some positive impact in the majors in his career.

[Benihana]

Roenicke's got evil stuff and looks to be a solid bet to be a plus major league pitcher. He may not have come in with a pedigree, but if he keeps up what he did last season, he'll be in the majors at some point in 2008.

I certainly hope you are right (and I think you may turn out to be.) However, I wasn't just questioning the pedigree he came in with, but the pedigree he currently has (being a 26-year-old AA reliever.)

You don't have to be drafted in the first round to get shuttled quickly through the system if you are truly tearing it up. I just think if the Reds brass was as confident in Roenicke as you guys seem to be, he would be with the big club by now, especially given their bullpen woes.

[Kc61]

Kc, I appreciate the fact that you are definitely Roenicke's #1 advocate, but I just can't make myself vote for a reliever who is going to be 26 next season and has never pitched above AA. I hope he turns into a great closer for our ballclub, and his peripheral numbers look pretty good. But truly elite young closers have a way of bursting through systems (see Huston Street, Chad Cordero, K-Rod, Ryan Wagner, I mean, er...oops!) Roenicke is doing well but the fact of the matter remains he is going to be 26 in AA, and there really isn't that much differentiating him from other minor league relievers, such as Guevara, Medlock, Pelland, etc.

Meanwhile, I am very much on the fence in terms of the Reds #6 prospect. I really like Wood but he has to show that he can bounce back from this year. Maloney's numbers are good but I can't shake visions of Dumatrait. I can't bring myself to get fired up about Stubbs until he continues his "hot streak" this year. Lotzkar looked great but he is so young. In other words, I can't really bring myself to join one camp yet, so I'll see how the debate plays out...


As head of the Roenicke fan club, your comments are well taken and acknowledged. Also, everyone should keep in mind that I was a strong Dumatrait advocate as well.

[dougdirt]

I am going with Drew Stubbs.

From July forward he hit .303/.399/.517 over a span of 246 plate appearances.

He has all the tools and began to put some of them together over the second half of the season. Plenty enough reason for me.

[dougdirt]

Roenicke's got evil stuff and looks to be a solid bet to be a plus major league pitcher. He may not have come in with a pedigree, but if he keeps up what he did last season, he'll be in the majors at some point in 2008.

Between Roenicke, Stubbs and Maloney, Roenicke seems to me to be the guy who most reasonably can have some positive impact in the majors in his career.

I am pretty sure that his father was a major leaguer..... Thats a fairly good pedigree.

He probably starts in AAA next season and should be in Cincinnati soon enough.

[Benihana]

I am pretty sure that his father was a major leaguer..... Thats a fairly good pedigree.

He probably starts in AAA next season and should be in Cincinnati soon enough.


I think Ron Roenicke was his uncle, but I think what M2 was referring to (and I was responding) was the fact that he was not a highly touted guy coming in as a 10th round pick (and college senior.)

But I agree, hopefully he will be in Cincinnati at some point this year. I do look forward to it.

[M2]

I certainly hope you are right (and I think you may turn out to be.) However, I wasn't just questioning the pedigree he came in with, but the pedigree he currently has (being a 26-year-old AA reliever.)

You don't have to be drafted in the first round to get shuttled quickly through the system if you are truly tearing it up. I just think if the Reds brass was as confident in Roenicke as you guys seem to be, he would be with the big club by now, especially given their bullpen woes.

He only got drafted in 2006, which is the year he started pitching. So he's gone from a college position player two years ago to a AA closer. He's already vaulted five levels in pro ball.

If he had progressed all the way to the majors, it would be something out of a dime store novel. If he could pitch his way into the majors in 2008, it still would be a spectacular achievement. He's actually on a career arc awfully similar to Trevor Hoffman.

BTW, he's 25, not 26, not that it makes any major sort of difference.

[dougdirt]

I certainly hope you are right (and I think you may turn out to be.) However, I wasn't just questioning the pedigree he came in with, but the pedigree he currently has (being a 26-year-old AA reliever.)

You don't have to be drafted in the first round to get shuttled quickly through the system if you are truly tearing it up. I just think if the Reds brass was as confident in Roenicke as you guys seem to be, he would be with the big club by now, especially given their bullpen woes.

Roenicke won't be 26 until August 2008..... As for where he is at, he was drafted in 2006. He went from Billings to AA from one season to the next, thats about as big of a jump as you will see guys make in 1 season.

[TOBTTReds]

Roenicke's age is tough to look at bc he was 23 when drafted. He has moved through levels relatively quick for a player in our org. I have him in the 8-10 range though.

[dougdirt]

I think Ron Roenicke was his uncle, but I think what M2 was referring to (and I was responding) was the fact that he was not a highly touted guy coming in as a 10th round pick (and college senior.)

His dad was Gary Roenicke, played for 12 MLB seasons. Ron was his uncle. You were probably right with what M2 was saying... I didn't read into that too well.

[Redman15]

I'm going with Dorn before Stubbs. You can project all you want, but I'm going with results. Dorn won the 2006 Pioneer batting title with a .354 avg. Stubbs hit .252. Dorn skipped Low A and went to Sarasota were he hit 12 HR's. He led the team in RBI's with 66 in only 92 games. He was promoted to AA where he hit .311 with 8 HR's and a OSP of 1.089 in 26 games. I think the numbers speak for themselves.

[Benihana]

He only got drafted in 2006, which is the year he started pitching. So he's gone from a college position player two years ago to a AA closer. He's already vaulted five levels in pro ball.

If he had progressed all the way to the majors, it would be something out of a dime store novel. If he could pitch his way into the majors in 2008, it would be a spectacular. He's actually on a career arc awfully similar to Trevor Hoffman.

BTW, he's 25, not 26, not that it makes any major sort of difference.


Roenicke won't be 26 until August 2008..... As for where he is at, he was drafted in 2006. He went from Billings to AA from one season to the next, thats about as big of a jump as you will see guys make in 1 season.

you guys twins?

[M2]

I'm going with Dorn before Stubbs. You can project all you want, but I'm going with results. Dorn won the 2006 Pioneer batting title with a .354 avg. Stubbs hit .252. Dorn skipped Low A and went to Sarasota were he hit 12 HR's. He led the team in RBI's with 66 in only 92 games. He was promoted to AA where he hit .311 with 8 HR's and a OSP of 1.089 in 26 games. I think the numbers speak for themselves.

Good argument. Don't know if I'm sold on it, but I'll definitely be giving Dorn more consideration from here on out.

[dougdirt]

you guys twins?

I don't know....

M2 are you extremely good looking? If so, it could be a possibility.

[edabbs44]

I went with Lotzkar...much hope for him.

[lollipopcurve]

Lotzkar here too. This is a ceiling pick based on the fact that Lotzkar looks like he may be the team's next best chance, following Bailey and Cueto, to develop an above average major league starter. His performance when he moved to Billings last summer told me he's got some legitimate power stuff.

[Kc61]

Like to see more discussion about Maloney. His frame is good, his K rate is terrific, he is young for his level. His fly ball tendencies could be a problem, his velocity is an issue. He's getting a lot of support, but how does he project at the major league level? Has anyone actually seen him pitch? Wonder what the answers are.

[Benihana]

Lotzkar here too. This is a ceiling pick based on the fact that Lotzkar looks like he may be the team's next best chance, following Bailey and Cueto, to develop an above average major league starter. His performance when he moved to Billings last summer told me he's got some legitimate power stuff.

I'd throw Travis Wood into that mix as well. Don't forget about him.

[dougdirt]

I have seen him pitch, only 1 game when he was in Louisvlle. Speed worries me. Liked his curveball. Not sold that he can get guys out in the major leagues consistantly though. Thats just my opinion.

[lollipopcurve]

I'd throw Travis Wood into that mix as well. Don't forget about him.

He's got to prove he's healthy. I still like his potential, but the reporting of his injury last year seemed too murky to me -- I wonder if he's trying to pitch through something, perhaps unwisely.

[Patrick Bateman]

Some good information on Roenicke here. I didn't realize that he was that new to pitching. His K numbers in Sarasota are awfully impressive considering how new he was to pitching and shows the calibre of his stuff.

Obviously, I went with Stubbs, but I'll have to give Roenicke more consideration in the upcoming spots.

[Benihana]

He's got to prove he's healthy. I still like his potential, but the reporting of his injury last year seemed too murky to me -- I wonder if he's trying to pitch through something, perhaps unwisely.

Of course he does. But I would put Wood with his health questions right up there with Lotzkar with his age/experience questions, mainly because Wood has gotten hitters out in Sarasota.

Don't get me wrong- I love Lotzkar. I'm just suggesting proceeding with caution when talking about 18 year old pitchers that have yet to see A-ball. Jacobo Sequea anyone?

[dougdirt]

He's got to prove he's healthy. I still like his potential, but the reporting of his injury last year seemed too murky to me -- I wonder if he's trying to pitch through something, perhaps unwisely.

He pitched well in instructional league after the season was over.

[M2]

I'd throw Travis Wood into that mix as well. Don't forget about him.

He's my #7 guy.

[Betterread]

He pitched well in instructional league after the season was over.
That's encouraging to hear. Any info on his velocity? Do you know if one of the reasons he was shut down early so that he could work on his curveball?

[Benihana]

I think I've actually been convinced, if by nothing else, than the surprising lack of enthusiasm I have for any of the other candidates. I'm voting for Josh Roenicke.

[Patrick Bateman]

Wood's probably my next guy too. His injuries weren't very serious for future consideration. So as long as he can get the minor stuff out of the way I think he will continue to produce. he was ahead of shcedule anyways, so the half year he lost isn't a big deal.

As for Lotzkar.... too young. He was exactly who I wanted the Reds to draft (partially becaue he's from Canada), but he's still a raw 18 year old pitcher. I like his potential arsenal, but he's still 5+ years away, and I'd like to think that some of our more experienced guys have a high enough ceiling to trump the raw guy.

[Kc61]

I've seen Wood listed at 5'11" or 6'. That's a possible red flag on a starting pitcher. Not that he can't succeed, but it raises the durability issue. And I haven't heard that Wood throws bullets like a Kazmir. Wood was very effective in low-A ball, but if his changeup is his best pitch that could explain it against very young hitters.

[RedsManRick]

I'm going with Dorn before Stubbs. You can project all you want, but I'm going with results. Dorn won the 2006 Pioneer batting title with a .354 avg. Stubbs hit .252. Dorn skipped Low A and went to Sarasota were he hit 12 HR's. He led the team in RBI's with 66 in only 92 games. He was promoted to AA where he hit .311 with 8 HR's and a OSP of 1.089 in 26 games. I think the numbers speak for themselves.

I agree. As of today, Dorn is possibly the most overlooked prospect in the system. I know he's not a gold glove CF, but all he's done is rake. A year after being drafted he was OPS'ing 1.000 in AA.

2006, A: 206 AB, .354/.457/.573 (1.030 OPS)
2007, A+: 338 AB , .281/.359/.456 (.815 OPS)
2007, AA: 90 AB, .311/.422.667 (1.089 OPS)

He was a 32nd round draft pick, so you have to love the value. He's on the fast track to be ready to go in late 2009. I don't know anything about his defensive ability, but if you can't hit like this, you'll have a position. And I don't mean this as a real comp, but Albert Pujols was a 13th Rd pick. It happens.

Dorn is a solid, but not a plus defender in LF and has a marked platoon split, not all uncommon for young lefties. Maybe he doesn't have the "upside" of a Drew Stubs. However, among position players after Bruce and Votto, if I had to put my money on any 1 guy to become a regular major leaguer, Dorn is the guy. Ceiling is important, but so is projectability, and that's why Dorn is high on my list.

[dougdirt]

I've seen Wood listed at 5'11" or 6'. That's a possible red flag on a starting pitcher. Not that he can't succeed, but it raises the durability issue. And I haven't heard that Wood throws bullets like a Kazmir. Wood was very effective in low-A ball, but if his changeup is his best pitch that could explain it against very young hitters.

Low 90s fastball and a great change up from a left hander who is 5-11 or 6-0..... man, that really sounds like someone who plays for an AL Central team....

[camisadelgolf]

I voted for Drew Stubbs out of spite. :D

[texasdave]

Matt Maloney is a left-handed Aaron Harang IMO. In fact, he has better minor league numbers than Harang. In his minor league career to this point he is averaging better than a strikeout per inning. His WHIP is 1.18. I am not sure what there is not to like about this guy. He may not throw as hard as some people would like, but as he moves up the ladder the strikeouts keep coming. He has not been old for the leagues he has been pitching in. I think MM is going to be just fine in the majors.

[dougdirt]

Matt Maloney is a left-handed Aaron Harang IMO. In fact, he has better minor league numbers than Harang. In his minor league career to this point he is averaging better than a strikeout per inning. His WHIP is 1.18. I am not sure what there is not to like about this guy. He may not throw as hard as some people would like, but as he moves up the ladder the strikeouts keep coming. He has not been old for the leagues he has been pitching in. I think MM is going to be just fine in the majors.

Except his top end fastball is Harangs low end fastball and he doesn't anything close to an out pitch in comparison to Harangs slider.

[Benihana]

Except his top end fastball is Harangs low end fastball and he doesn't anything close to an out pitch in comparison to Harangs slider.

To be fair, his fastball is about the same as Harang's was at his age. Remember, Harang didn't start becoming a fireballer until about three years ago.

[M2]

To be fair, his fastball is about the same as Harang's was at his age. Remember, Harang didn't start becoming a fireballer until about three years ago.

Though Harang always had the body for more velocity. It was just a matter of getting his frame behind his pitches.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm surprised Josh Roenicke's stock has risen so high. Not only is he a reliever, but hardly anyone expected anything at all from him a year ago.

[M2]

I'm surprised Josh Roenicke's stock has risen so high. Not only is he a reliever, but hardly anyone expected anything at all from him a year ago.

Stuff + performance = respect

[texasdave]

Except his top end fastball is Harangs low end fastball and he doesn't anything close to an out pitch in comparison to Harangs slider.

He keeps striking them out. He must have something working for him.

[texasdave]

Though Harang always had the body for more velocity. It was just a matter of getting his frame behind his pitches.

Baseball-reference has Maloney listed as 6'4" and 220 pounds. Seems like there is enough of him there to generate something extra down the line.

[Benihana]

I think Maloney and Wood are my 7-8 guys, with Stubbs and Dorn as my 9-10 guys.

[M2]

Baseball-reference has Maloney listed as 6'4" and 220 pounds. Seems like there is enough of him there to generate something extra down the line.

Is he that big? For some reason I thought he was shorter.

Certainly a frame like that bodes well for him. He'll probably find some oomph, or at least do a good of sustaining what he's got, in the future.

[OnBaseMachine]

I went with Josh Roenicke as well. I think he has a chance to be a plus major league reliever and fairly soon, IMO.

[Degenerate39]

I voted Maloney

[icehole3]

No love for Waring the guy hit 50 homers last year right?

[GoReds33]

No love for Waring the guy hit 50 homers last year right?I voted for Roenkie, but Waring is a beast. Waring has tremendous power. I also believe he had a stretch with like 9 homers in 10 games.

[camisadelgolf]

Waring might not even make my top-20. The same thing goes for, and please don't shoot me, Juan Francisco.

[dougdirt]

Is he that big? For some reason I thought he was shorter.

Certainly a frame like that bodes well for him. He'll probably find some oomph, or at least do a good of sustaining what he's got, in the future.

Maloney is a big guy. You can see that by just looking at him on the mound. That was my first impression of him, wow that guy is big.

[Mario-Rijo]

I voted Stubbs, again I think he actually improved last year as opposed to just getting hot for a while. It's up to him to continue his improvement this year if not the bottom will drop out fast on what little support he still has.

Quick question, do we have 2 Roenicke's in the system because I seem to remember seeing one struggle greatly this past season?

I like Dorn's bat as well but where does he play going forward, not that it matter's too much with regards to his value but just out of curiosity? Is he a Daric Barton type who can swing it but needs to play in the AL due to a lack of defensive ability?

[camisadelgolf]

I remember the Reds drafting a different Roenicke, but I believe they didn't sign him. Josh Roenicke has had major control issues at times, so maybe it was the same guy.

[Kc61]

Though Harang always had the body for more velocity. It was just a matter of getting his frame behind his pitches.

I too saw a comparison between Harang and Maloney. So I looked up Harang's home run rate in the minor leagues. He threw very few homers as compared with Maloney.

Maloney this year had a fly ball bias, his GO/FO ratio at each stop this year was below 1. This shows in the number of home runs allowed, 19 in all. This is my main concern, not so much his velocity which can improve. (Maloney had a slight ground ball bias at a lower level in 2006.)

So Maloney will need to work on this or he will be eaten alive at GABP or any similar stadium.

Still, with good coaching, whatever Maloney has that results in all the strikeouts could result in a heck of a good pitcher.

[Betterread]

I am amazed that Josh Roenicke has 11 votes while Sean Watson has 1. Sean Watson is the system's best reliever, not Roenicke. He has more velocity, a better breaking ball than Roenicke and he is obviously a stronger prospect. When the Reds stop experimenting with using him as a starter he will move quickly - if he stays healthy.

[klw]

As of now I have done the only other vote. I was thinking of Daryl Thompson. I think he showed excellant promise this year and with more time away from his surgery should at least be in the discussion at this point on. His home run totals this year are definitely a concern but had a bit of a breakout year this year.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=58319&highlight=daryl+thompson

[M2]

I am amazed that Josh Roenicke has 11 votes while Sean Watson has 1. Sean Watson is the system's best reliever, not Roenicke. He has more velocity, a better breaking ball than Roenicke and he is obviously a stronger prospect. When the Reds stop experimenting with using him as a starter he will move quickly - if he stays healthy.

Watson got hammered in high A while Roenicke made the FSL All-Star team and then went on to blow hitters away in AA.

I've seen non-Reds folks gush about Roenicke over the past season, while you don't even hear crickets chirping about Watson.

FWIW, I agree Watson's future is in the pen, though I've got no particular expectations that he'll be anything more than the next Kyle Edens.

[mth123]

I voted Roenicke for the same reason as M2. Best probability of a positive contribution. He just edged Rosales for the same reason, Maloney (Trade Value but I'm skeptical of him being more than another Dumatrait), Dorn with a nice bat but a higher bar in the Corner OF spots.

Beyond those, I like Jose Castro and Carlos Fisher so we'll need to add them in a round or two. Wood is a little farther down because of his injuries and slight frame. Stubbs is in the teens somewhere on my list though his trade value may get me to move him up a bit.

[M2]

I like Jose Castro and Carlos Fisher so we'll need to add them in a round or two.

Fisher's my #9 guy. I don't know that he'll pan out, but he throws hard, keeps the ball down and has a great frame.

[AmarilloRed]

I voted for Maloney again. I think he can be a legitimate starting pitcher in Cincinnati.

[reds44]

I voted for Juan Francisco.

He has the most upside of anyone left on the board.

If Drew Stubbs is the Reds 6th best prospect, Chris Dickerson better not be any lower then 10.

[Patrick Bateman]

Stubbs still has a few years on Dickseron and has started to show improvement, plus his defensive skills are that much better than Dickerson. They are very similar type of players, but as far as prospect ranking goes, they aren't even close.

As for Francisco, I love the power, but major on base issues. Usually players that struggle greatly with pitch selection like Francisco does have a lot of troubles as they move up the chain. He's an interesting sleeper because of his power, but I don't see him anywhere near top 10 because he has a great chance of being a bust, while his boom is deflated with his on base struggles.

[M2]

I voted for Juan Francisco.

I'm not sure I'd put Francisco on a list of the top 10 players to pass through Dayton last year.

[reds44]

I'm not sure I'd put Francisco on a list of the top 10 players to pass through Dayton last year.
Name me the 10 better.

Maybe you are right, but I just want to hear if you really believe that.

[M2]

Name me the 10 better.

Maybe you are right, but I just want to hear if you really believe that.

I'm probably exaggerating, but I hate his game to the point where I don't consider him a prospect. He's playing like Tony Batista in low A. Tony Batista didn't even do that.

[Highlifeman21]

I voted for Juan Francisco.

He has the most upside of anyone left on the board.

If Drew Stubbs is the Reds 6th best prospect, Chris Dickerson better not be any lower then 10.

I think posters are for better or for worse giving Stubbs the benefit of being our 1st round pick in 2006, and putting him at #6. That doesn't mean he is our 6th best prospect, but just that people can't wrap their heads around the fact that Stubbs is one of the biggest busts to ever be in our system, due largely to his age.

Chris Dickerson should be higher than Drew Stubbs for the simple fact that Dickerson has played in higher levels of the minors, while having a very similar skill set.

I'm sure people won't agree with that, but this is why it's a RedsZone Community project on Prospects.

[TOBTTReds]

plus his defensive skills are that much better than Dickerson.

I swear I was going to respond to this before I knew you posted it (though this is my 3rd response to a defensive comment by you today). But Dickerson is the best MiL CF'er I've seen. Dude is just nasty in the field. He makes catches against the CF fence like it isn't even there. I've seen him play about 50+ games in person, and he is incredible.

Now, I have only seen Mr. Stubbs play a few times and he didn't get many chances. Sean Watson was DEALING those games. So could he be better than Dickerson? Maybe. But I don't think Stubbs' defense gives him any advantage over Dickerson even if he is better, because it would be the slimmest of margins bc Dickerson is that good.

[TOBTTReds]

I'm probably exaggerating, but I hate his game to the point where I don't consider him a prospect. He's playing like Tony Batista in low A. Tony Batista didn't even do that.

Francisco has a lot to change before I go putting him in my top 6. But I don't think our system is deep enough to put him higher than 10 or so. His power potential is pretty crazy. All he needs is patience and he is golden. Though, patience is extremely hard to learn, hopefully a light goes on soon.

[Betterread]

I swear I was going to respond to this before I knew you posted it (though this is my 3rd response to a defensive comment by you today). But Dickerson is the best MiL CF'er I've seen. Dude is just nasty in the field. He makes catches against the CF fence like it isn't even there. I've seen him play about 50+ games in person, and he is incredible.

Now, I have only seen Mr. Stubbs play a few times and he didn't get many chances. Sean Watson was DEALING those games. So could he be better than Dickerson? Maybe. But I don't think Stubbs' defense gives him any advantage over Dickerson even if he is better, because it would be the slimmest of margins bc Dickerson is that good.

Nice description of Dickerson on Defense - and I would add that he matches up favorably with Stubbs as an athlete. However, he has a flaw that Stubbs does not - slow bat speed.

[dougdirt]

I swear I was going to respond to this before I knew you posted it (though this is my 3rd response to a defensive comment by you today). But Dickerson is the best MiL CF'er I've seen. Dude is just nasty in the field. He makes catches against the CF fence like it isn't even there. I've seen him play about 50+ games in person, and he is incredible.

Now, I have only seen Mr. Stubbs play a few times and he didn't get many chances. Sean Watson was DEALING those games. So could he be better than Dickerson? Maybe. But I don't think Stubbs' defense gives him any advantage over Dickerson even if he is better, because it would be the slimmest of margins bc Dickerson is that good.

Dickerson is an absolute stud defensive centerfielder. I am with you on that one. Stubbs is on the same level though defensively. Offensively I think the two are different players though with Stubbs coming out ahead by a long shot.

[Betterread]

I'm probably exaggerating, but I hate his game to the point where I don't consider him a prospect. He's playing like Tony Batista in low A. Tony Batista didn't even do that.

Comparing Juan Francisco to Tony Batista is....incomprehensible. Obviously you have never seen him play, yet you are comfortable providing a highly opinionated "scouting" analysis.
It is reminiscent of the megalomaniac language of schizophrenics, who use terrific, spellbinding words to reduce the transcendent to subjective form, to give banalities the charm of novelty, or pass off commonplaces as searching wisdom.
– Carl G. Jung, On the Nature of the Psyche, 1928

[M2]

Comparing Juan Francisco to Tony Batista is....incomprehensible. Obviously you have never seen him play, yet you are comfortable providing a highly opinionated "scouting" analysis.

I've only seen film on Francisco. That said, Batista has a career .299 OB and .453 SLG in the bigs. Francisco so far has a .303 OB and .447 SLG in the minors. Clearly I'm out of my mind in suggesting there's similarities.


It is reminiscent of the megalomaniac language of schizophrenics, who use terrific, spellbinding words to reduce the transcendent to subjective form, to give banalities the charm of novelty, or pass off commonplaces as searching wisdom.
– Carl G. Jung, On the Nature of the Psyche, 1928

Done being a nebbish? Or is Carl Jung still urging you to type?

[Highlifeman21]

Who knew we'd have a Carl Jung quote show up in a discussion about Reds' prospects?

Who had the over on that one?

[Patrick Bateman]

I swear I was going to respond to this before I knew you posted it (though this is my 3rd response to a defensive comment by you today). But Dickerson is the best MiL CF'er I've seen. Dude is just nasty in the field. He makes catches against the CF fence like it isn't even there. I've seen him play about 50+ games in person, and he is incredible.

Now, I have only seen Mr. Stubbs play a few times and he didn't get many chances. Sean Watson was DEALING those games. So could he be better than Dickerson? Maybe. But I don't think Stubbs' defense gives him any advantage over Dickerson even if he is better, because it would be the slimmest of margins bc Dickerson is that good.


I've seen neither play live, and I'm aware that Dickerson is a great fielding CF'der, a reason why I have always backed him. But from everything I have read, Stubbs trumps anyone in the system including Dickerson. Perhaps I'm wrong on that, but I can only base my opnions on defense based on what I read.

[Patrick Bateman]

Chris Dickerson should be higher than Drew Stubbs for the simple fact that Dickerson has played in higher levels of the minors, while having a very similar skill set.




And you can't just completely ignore Stubbs' upside. Yes, he has been very dissapointing so far, but he has a few years on Dickerson to potentially reach his higher ceiling.

Dickerson is clearly more likely to be a useful major league player since he's closer, but I think the upside is way more important.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'm probably exaggerating, but I hate his game to the point where I don't consider him a prospect. He's playing like Tony Batista in low A. Tony Batista didn't even do that.

I think that's pretty apt. Another guy is Tony Blanco. Former failed Reds prospect. he always had as much power as anyone but hige K's and no walks. It was fnny when Bowden tried to stick it to us by taking him in the rule V. That was a waste of a roster spot. But he did hit one 450 footer.

[camisadelgolf]

Name me the 10 better.

Maybe you are right, but I just want to hear if you really believe that.

I think M2 was clearly exaggerating. We don't agree on some things, but we might be on the same page when it comes to Francisco. Actually, we're probably not on the same page for anything--but it's not often we're in the same chapter, so I'll continue anyway. Just for fun, I made a rough list of my top-20 prospects who played for Dayton this year. If I saw someone else had put Francisco around Daryl Thompson or Pedro Viola, I wouldn't lose any respect for the list. However, if you would put ex-Dragon, Mike Stanton, on the list, I might bash you on the head and set your list on fire.

Anyway, yes, I realize how crazy it might sound to say Juan Francisco and Zach Cozart are nearly equal in prospect status at this juncture, but after watching Cozart play, I'm thoroughly impressed and expect him to be on the fast track to the Reds.

1. Todd Frazier
2. Drew Stubbs
3. Sean Watson
4. Justin Turner
5. Juan Francisco
6. Chris Heisey
7. Chris Valaika
8. Alex Smit
9. Brandon Waring
10. Daryl Thompson
11. Pedro Viola
12. Zach Cozart
13. Logan Parker
14. Jordan Smith
15. Jose Rojas
16. Ramon Geronimo
17. Rafael Gonzalez
18. Travis Webb
19. Daniel Guerrero
20. Misael DeJesus

[Redman15]

I think M2 was clearly exaggerating. We don't agree on some things, but we might be on the same page when it comes to Francisco. Actually, we're probably not on the same page for anything--but it's not often we're in the same chapter, so I'll continue anyway. Just for fun, I made a rough list of my top-20 prospects who played for Dayton this year. If I saw someone else had put Francisco around Daryl Thompson or Pedro Viola, I wouldn't lose any respect for the list. However, if you would put ex-Dragon, Mike Stanton, on the list, I might bash you on the head and set your list on fire.

Anyway, yes, I realize how crazy it might sound to say Juan Francisco and Zach Cozart are nearly equal in prospect status at this juncture, but after watching Cozart play, I'm thoroughly impressed and expect him to be on the fast track to the Reds.

1. Todd Frazier
2. Drew Stubbs
3. Sean Watson
4. Justin Turner
5. Juan Francisco
6. Chris Heisey
7. Chris Valaika
8. Alex Smit
9. Brandon Waring
10. Daryl Thompson
11. Pedro Viola
12. Zach Cozart
13. Logan Parker
14. Jordan Smith
15. Jose Rojas
16. Ramon Geronimo
17. Rafael Gonzalez
18. Travis Webb
19. Daniel Guerrero
20. Misael DeJesus

I think this is a pretty good list. I think the only change I would make is putting Denis Phipps at 12 or 13. He is going to be a good prospect when he fully understands the game.

[Mario-Rijo]

Tony Batista is the exact same guy I thought of when I 1st saw Francisco. He (Juan) is the most undisciplined hitter that I have ever seen, he makes Vladimir Guerrero look polished. And he is a complete hack in the field. So he has a huge hill to climb just to make it past high A IMO.

As a matter of fact If it weren't for the fact that it's not hurting him being in Dayton, that is where I would keep him. He is gonna be a kid that I hope put's it together just at the plate (he could be a DH, Ortiz-esque) but I truly doubt he does.

[M2]

Tony Batista is the exact same guy I thought of when I 1st saw Francisco. He (Juan) is the most undisciplined hitter that I have ever seen, he makes Vladimir Guerrero look polished. And he is a complete hack in the field. So he has a huge hill to climb just to make it past high A IMO.

Maybe we share the same voices in our heads!

[dougdirt]

Maybe we share the same voices in our heads!

Or maybe he had an implant put in your head and he just talks to you through it? :D

[M2]

Or maybe he had an implant put in your head and he just talks to you through it? :D

Beware, it may be the same voice that lauds your staggering good looks.

[dougdirt]

Beware, it may be the same voice that lauds your staggering good looks.

It just told me that its not and thats good enough for me!

[Mario-Rijo]

Maybe we share the same voices in our heads!

Drew Stubbs is a beast! :D

[New Fever]

In the BA chat today they said that Jared Burton still qualifies for their list. Shouldn't his name be on the candidates we can vote for.

[dougdirt]

In the BA chat today they said that Jared Burton still qualifies for their list. Shouldn't his name be on the candidates we can vote for.

I was unaware he qualified because of the amount of time he spent on the 25 man roster.

[reds44]

In the BA chat today they said that Jared Burton still qualifies for their list. Shouldn't his name be on the candidates we can vote for.
Why would he count and Josh Hamilton not?

[camisadelgolf]

Why would he count and Josh Hamilton not?

Exactly. Either there was a misunderstanding, or someone is just flat-out wrong.

[Ron Madden]

I see Drew Stubbs as pretty much as an average prospect.

I could be wrong but I really like Sam LeCure more than Stubbs.

I've always liked Sam LeCure and at one time had very high hopes for Drew Stubbs.

I have more faith in LeCure at this point than I do in Stubbs.

I could be wrong... but don't we all have the right to be wrong now and then?

[dougdirt]

Why would he count and Josh Hamilton not?
General lines are 50ip or 130 at bats.

Being a reliever, Burton didn't get 50 ip. that said, he spent a lot of time on the 25 man roster and that also doesn't let you qualify for the ROY.... I have a feeling he spent too much time on the active roster to qualify next year and someone simply overlooked that part.

[mth123]

General lines are 50ip or 130 at bats.

Being a reliever, Burton didn't get 50 ip. that said, he spent a lot of time on the 25 man roster and that also doesn't let you qualify for the ROY.... I have a feeling he spent too much time on the active roster to qualify next year and someone simply overlooked that part.

I think you are right. I thought the rule was 45 days (that is just from my ever worsening memory). To avoid repeating rule 5 status he needs 90 days (again from memory) and I think he got them and no longer is considered a rookie.

[dougdirt]

I see Drew Stubbs as pretty much as an average prospect.

I could be wrong but I really like Sam LeCure more than Stubbs.

I've always liked Sam LeCure and at one time had very high hopes for Drew Stubbs.

I have more faith in LeCure at this point than I do in Stubbs.

I could be wrong... but don't we all have the right to be wrong now and then?

I got to ask JJ a few questions the other day about the list and basically he came to the point of 'at the back end of the 20s should he add a guy like Sam Lecure who could be a #5 swingman type or go with a guy with a lot of potential but is much further away'. When the prospect handbook comes out, I would expect Lecure to be somewhere between 25-30.

I think a lot of people are cutting Stubbs short on this board.

[camisadelgolf]

Without thinking about it too much, I don't think I'd even put Lecure in the top 40.