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View Full Version : Wise to Trade Hamilton?



hippie07
11-24-2007, 11:34 AM
I see why the Reds are shopping Hamilton, but I think they are shopping him the way that other teams are shopping Snell & Kazmir. The article about Snell said that the Pitt braintrust was mulling over whether or not to dangle Snell.... that's like saying "they're thinking about.. thinking about trading him"... so, in other words its unlikely they'll trade him unless they're blown away. I think the same can be said for Hamilton. He's a superstar in the making and not some time in the distant future ... but this year probably. Unless Wayne knows something that we don't, about injuries or chance of relapse, then there's basically zero risk that this kid will not hit superstar status real soon and, not to mention, be under team control for a number of years.

Then, why would the Reds even think of trading him? The same article that mentions Snell, mentions Hamilton http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887
The article states, refering to Hamilton
"It really makes you wonder about his health," said an official of one team that spoke with them, "and whether all that time he missed took more of a toll than we thought."
People have a hard time believing that Hamilton's available unless there's a catch, which should let you know how highly other teams think of him.

We've seen deals being discussed of (Matt Kemp and others) for Bedard, and we've discussed how Hamilton is better than Matt Kemp. So, I say that WK shops a package of (Hamilton and Maloney) for Bedard, Kazmir, Snell or others of that caliber and if teams say no, then we keep Hamilton.

I think WK will pick up a couple pitching prospects for fringe players and/or prospects that won't hurt too much to lose and then at the All-Star break if we're in a position to win, we revisit the Hamilton for an ace type deal w/ a team that's out of contention.

I've seen people, especially on the org say Hamilton for Garza... I read one post that said Hamilton and EdE for Garza... WHAT?!! That's crazy!! No way we give up Hamilton for a pitching prospect... If we can't get a bonafide 1/2 for him, we hold onto him and see what happens, IMO.

fadetoblack2880
11-24-2007, 12:31 PM
I see no problem in trading Hamilton or anyone else for that matter if it makes the ballclub better right now. For too many years the Reds have been getting younger and now it seems that Castellini wants to compete. So if trading Hamilton can make the Reds a better ballclub immediately, then do it...

Bip Roberts
11-24-2007, 12:36 PM
I think we need to sit on him another year.

ChatterRed
11-24-2007, 01:07 PM
I think the GM talking about Hamilton's health problems is just posturing to lower the pricetag for Hamilton. It's a smart move. I think he's a desired commodity but other teams are trying to get him cheap. The Twins are in the market for a CFer. So are other teams.

It's simple math..........you're not going to get a #1, 2, or even possibly a 3 starter for just Hamilton. He'll have to be packaged with someone or several someone's, depending on which number starter we try and get. If we don't get sufficient return, then you don't trade him, sit on him a year, hoping he stays healthy and produces. We have Bruce in the wings and KGJ's contract will be up.

It's the same as always. Depends on the return. The hope is that WK doesn't trade him for pittance. He has not shown the inclination to make low return trades to date. So I'm not worried.

*BaseClogger*
11-24-2007, 01:37 PM
Hamilton + Stubbs/Maloney for Ian Snell

Ian Snell is cheap for several more years just like Hamilton, and I'll always take a proven starting pitcher over an oft-injured outfielder like Hamilton...

mroby85
11-24-2007, 01:50 PM
I wouldn't be "trying" to trade hamilton, but if the offer was right, i'd send him packing.

757690
11-24-2007, 02:13 PM
I wouldn't be "trying" to trade hamilton, but if the offer was right, i'd send him packing.

I am not of the opinion that the Reds need another big name starter to compete in the NL Central. So I see no need for them to trade Hamilton or any of their prospects for a top of the line SP.

No one in the division has a better 1-2 than Harang and Arroyo, and either Belisle or Bailey will have a solid year. Cordero will only make them better.

The Reds really just need two back end starters to fill out the staff, and I think that those can be picked up when teams non-tender players later on. Also, I think Freel can get a #5 starter. There are also plenty of quality arms that are coming off injury years that could be had for incentive filled contracts.

SoTxRedsFan
11-24-2007, 02:24 PM
Of course you listen to offers, but shopping him just brings his value down.

hippie07
11-24-2007, 03:25 PM
Of course you listen to offers, but shopping him just brings his value down.

How?

kaldaniels
11-24-2007, 03:57 PM
Of course you listen to offers, but shopping him just brings his value down.

Shopping a player can also kickstart a bidding frenzy...you just never know Tex.

captainmorgan07
11-24-2007, 04:02 PM
you can shop soembody but u dont' always have to buy. There's no problem with playing the market to see what you can get for a player. If the right deal comes along u pull the trigger if it doesnt you hold on to him. Playing the field is always a good option.

Degenerate39
11-24-2007, 04:05 PM
Get a package involving Hamilton for Bedard and I'll be one happy Reds fan.

Harang
Bedard
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto or Belisle

Not too shabby of a rotation.

AmarilloRed
11-24-2007, 05:56 PM
You listen to offers, but you don't trade him unless you are blown away. I agree that teams are trying to get him on the cheap, and that GM's comment about his health was designed to do just that. Hamilton can bring a #3 starter by himself, and a #2 if he is packaged with another prospect. I really believe his trade value is that high, and he will have an outstanding year for the Reds next year if he is not traded.

Vada Pinson Fan
11-24-2007, 06:52 PM
hippie07 - I agree with you 100%. I've been expressing the same feelings/concerns, as you have here, since the end of the season. To the others not in agreement with hippie, consider this: Josh Hamilton, in my opinion, gives the Reds the best chance of having a player on this team win the batting title since Pete Rose(which translates roughly into around 200 hits/600+ or- ABs/per season). Many thought Danny Driessen would win at least one batting title bak in the '70s, but if you are/were one of those people, then Josh Hamilton should win 3 or 4. Not saying he will, but I am saying Hamilton is a much better hitter than Driessen was(what does this have to do with anything you ask- I'm making the point of how rare this type of player has been on the Reds). Further, why trade anyone with the awesome potential of Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto and Maloney that the Reds have under their control for at least the next 5 years? A pitcher like Johan Santana could leave the Reds after the 2008 season, so why rent a pitcher at the expense of talents like the above named six? Trade veterans for veterans, keep the payroll as fluid as possible.

I don't risk a decade of entirely possible greatness (with what the Reds have locked in above) for a quick fix for now.

The following I would do but with much apprehension- Trade Hamilton only for a pitcher deemed to be available that is named Bedard or Kazmir maybe Dan Harren if he is healthy. As I have mentioned in previous posts, I don't think Tampa Bay would want Josh Hamilton back IF it meant trading Kazmir for him.

All in all, I give Bailey, Cueto and Maloney the chance to pitch for the Reds beginning Opening Day 2008. Then I go full out for the Free Agent Starting Pitchers available after the '08 season. Krivsky would have a much better feel for the team and its up and coming stars. I just wouldn't mortgage the future of the Reds for a quick fix.

hippie07
11-24-2007, 09:41 PM
Honestly, I'm not the conservative type, I'd rather see the Reds do whatever is possible to win now because I'm so sick of losing and would consider doing anything short of a felony to see the Reds take it all in 2008 .... but I think we have a good shot at it or at least the division w/ what we have now... if WK can pick up another SP which I think he'll do either by getting a 1/2 year FA fill-in or by making a shrewd deal w/ Freel and/or Hatteberg... so in this scenario - I really don't see us having to sacrifice the 2008 season, we can still have fun and take a division title, but then comes the sweet part...

In 2009, we'll have the best and cheapest lineup in all of baseball, even a re-signing of Dunn will still make our lineup dirt cheap!!

Hamilton
Phillips
Bruce
Dunn
Votto
Encarnacion
Gonzalez
Ross

So, in 09 we can go hog-wild in the FA market .... From projections I've seen.. we'll have somewhere around 20mil to spend in the FA market if we have a payroll similar to what we'll start the year w/ this year.....

I don't know... being competitive in 08 and having the luxury of buying the players in 09 to put us over the top, sounds pretty nice to me ;)

AmarilloRed
11-24-2007, 10:08 PM
I really wonder what we will be able to do in the '09 FA market as far as starting pitchers. The payroll may have increased, but I expect we are close to the limit of what we can afford. We will need to remove from current payroll by trading some players, and at best I would expect we might only be able to afford one SP. There is a 4 million buy-out of Griffey, so we will only save 8.5 million next year when he is gone. Freel and Hatteburg get you another 5, so that might be about 13 million we would save. That amount of money might buy you one good #2 SP on the market.

*BaseClogger*
11-24-2007, 10:10 PM
I really wonder what we will be able to do in the '09 FA market as far as starting pitchers. The payroll may have increased, but I expect we are close to the limit of what we can afford. We will need to remove from current payroll by trading some players, and at best I would expect we might only be able to afford one SP. There is a 4 million buy-out of Griffey, so we will only save 8.5 million next year when he is gone. Freel and Hatteburg get you another 5, so that might be about 13 million we would save. That amount of money might buy you one good #2 SP on the market.

13 million can get Derek Lowe can't it? Plus, if we trade for one starter this year and 2 out of Bailey/Cueto/Maloney really impress this year we may not be looking for a starter...

hippie07
11-24-2007, 10:53 PM
If you scroll down and find the great thread I(heart)Freel put together called "the four year plan" - he estimates that our payroll next year will be 42.73mil supposedly including arbritration increases, etc. if you add to that the 11mil for Cordero and say 15mil for Dunn.. that gives you around 59mil .... which means that if we carry the same payroll that we are this year...we'll have at least 20mil to spend in FA in 2009.....

Redsnake
11-24-2007, 11:28 PM
In my opinion, the Dunn's sitiuation will need to be addressed before Hamilton can be traded. If Dunn doesn't sign an extension, Hamilton is traded and JR is one year closer to the end. That only leaves the Reds Bruce, Hopper, Stubbs, ??? This offense just got worse.

Also, if the Reds do move Hamilton and Maloney/Stubbs I hope it's for some one like Bedard, Kazmir and not a Snell.

*BaseClogger*
11-25-2007, 10:44 PM
Wise to Trade Hamilton?

Dwayne Wise?:D

AmarilloRed
11-25-2007, 11:37 PM
I don't believe the Reds will even consider trading Hamilton until/unless Dunn is extended or the Reds know they can't re-sign him. Torii Hamilton got 5 years, 90 million and Dunn's agent might convince him he could get at least that in free agency.

*BaseClogger*
11-25-2007, 11:59 PM
I don't believe the Reds will even consider trading Hamilton until/unless Dunn is extended or the Reds know they can't re-sign him. Torii Hamilton got 5 years, 90 million and Dunn's agent might convince him he could get at least that in free agency.

Yeah, if I'm the Reds I don't give Dunn more than 15 mills per...

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
11-26-2007, 08:16 PM
I've seen his name tossed around quite a bit as being someone we could or should trade. I guess my question is why Josh, when we obviously would be so light in the centerfield position if this were to happen.What if a deal envolving Hamilton meant that Griffey were to go back to CF , if Dusty loves his older players like they say he does would a move like this suprise you? Do we count on Hopper in center all year, or Freel who just had a Doc Hollywood special. There is a reason that we all feel that it would take Hamilton in a deal to get a good pitcher, he is good, really good. Her is where I hope I don't upset anyone but, would we even mention getting rid of him if his past was clean, if the answer is no then how fair is that to Josh. I hope he never checks out this site but if he does I want him to know that he is the one player on this team that has me glued to the tv every time he steps to the plate, and I hope down the road I can say "I remember his first season with the Reds" without getting the response " I can't believe they got rid of him".

AmarilloRed
11-26-2007, 08:55 PM
We all like Josh Hamilton. I myself would be very upset if he were traded, but we have a lot of offense and he makes good trade bait with his low salary and good potential. Bill James projects him to hit 40 HR this year, so I would wait a year if we were to trade him. The fact is that it is unlikely Griffey, Dunn, Freel, Hatteburg, or any other position player is unlikely to bring the trade return Hamilton would. Even Edwin and Votto might not do it, and I would also prefer to keep them.As long as Bailey and Cueto(and Maloney) develop like we think they might, it may be unnecessary to make a trade. The one thing last year taught us is that it is risky to go into a season with 2(maybe 3) starting pitchers, and count on AAA for the rest. I like Josh Hamilton and would miss him, but if trading him would get the Reds to the playoffs, I could accept that bitter pill.

UPRedsFan
11-26-2007, 09:05 PM
I'm ok with trading him for a very young, very talented starting pitcher. Not a 2 year rental before we lose them to free agency though. It would need to be an on the cusp talent who has proven 1/2 season to full season of proven ML ability (i.e. just like Josh) - think Phil Hughes or Lester or Billingsley. Maybe there are some others I can't think of now. Josh has superstar written all over him. Would hate to lose that for just a couple years of Bedard or Kazmir.

PickOff
11-26-2007, 09:12 PM
It is absolutely "fair" to Josh to take into account anything in his past that affected his performance or may so in the future. This could mean mechanics, injury, mental health, drub abuse, among other things.

He will be 27 in May, maybe he turns out to be another Barry Bonds, but then again maybe he is injury prone the rest of his career and relapses into drug use.

I hope he never uses again, but addiction is an insidious thing.

If the Reds can get a younger #3 starter, even if they have to pair him with a Hatte or prospect, then they should do the trade now. There is just too much risk otherwise.

If they can't get younger #3 starter under contract, however, then they are better off just holding onto him and trading him at the end of next year for more value. Either way, I would trade him if possible because of the risk.

*BaseClogger*
11-26-2007, 10:23 PM
I would be said unless we get Ian Snell:(

hippie07
11-26-2007, 11:18 PM
I'm ok with trading him for a very young, very talented starting pitcher. Not a 2 year rental before we lose them to free agency though. It would need to be an on the cusp talent who has proven 1/2 season to full season of proven ML ability (i.e. just like Josh) - think Phil Hughes or Lester or Billingsley. Maybe there are some others I can't think of now. Josh has superstar written all over him. Would hate to lose that for just a couple years of Bedard or Kazmir.

Agree - that type of deal would be the most "fair" but you have to consider that the Reds are in need of pitching and 3 years of Kazmir would be pretty sweet and fits in w/ our upcoming 3-4 years left that looks like is our "window for winning". So, you're looking at the difference of 5yrs. of pitching prospects that could be anything from a #1-#3 starter, and 3yrs of a guaranteed #1... that seems about equal to me in value...

But Bedard,Kazmir and the young studs like those you mentioned (would Linecum be in that group?) ... are about the only thing I would be okay w/ if Hamilton leaves.

gedred69
11-26-2007, 11:25 PM
A bunch of really great views. I concur with most everything. The point is, you don't give up a Hammy unless you get equal value that you need in return. He is, IMO worth a proven #3 or a potential #2, period. Anything less is stupid. Fact being, the Reds are loaded with very serious OF potential. Beyond Bruce, there is Dorn and---everybody keeps saying Stubbs. Not to mention guys a step or two down the line that maybe best suited for the outfield. You take your strength, and use it to fill your weaknesses. I would be very sad to see Hamilton go. He is a potential Larry Walker. But, understand that the depth of his drug problem was the result of injuries that left him bored and he partook. He did 3 stints on the DL in '07 and very well would have, in frustration reverted, except for the babysitter the Reds hired for him. I can tell you as a former dabbler in recreational drugs, Hamilton's choice, (crack), is worse than heroin. I hope nothing but the best for him, and I hope he remains a Red. But, understand, he is potentially a very marketable commodity.

roby
11-27-2007, 12:14 AM
I really wonder what we will be able to do in the '09 FA market as far as starting pitchers. The payroll may have increased, but I expect we are close to the limit of what we can afford. We will need to remove from current payroll by trading some players, and at best I would expect we might only be able to afford one SP. There is a 4 million buy-out of Griffey, so we will only save 8.5 million next year when he is gone. Freel and Hatteburg get you another 5, so that might be about 13 million we would save. That amount of money might buy you one good #2 SP on the market.

If Bailey and Cueto turn out like I think they will...and sooner rather than later...the Reds may not need to get a FA pitcher in '09.