PDA

View Full Version : Comps for top Reds prospects?



RedsManRick
11-27-2007, 10:58 AM
One way I find it very helpful to get a feel for a given player's skill set is to find a few good comps. I'm not looking for a statistical twin necessarily. Rather, I want a scouting comp. Who does things similarly to this guy?

I was listening to the radio last night and the name Ian Snell came up. They described his mid 90's fastball, good slider, and passable change. They said the Pirates were always worried about his height and slight frame and feared he'd break down. Then I looked at his numbers and saw a guy missing a good number of bats and keeping his K/BB north of 3.5. Boom -- Johnny Cueto comp pops in my head.

Snell will be 26 in 2008 and has 448 IP in the majors. He's improved each year and last year was essentially a #2 starter.

How does that sit as a comp for Cueto? Other good ones for him? How about for other prospects?

Bruce: Larry Walker?
Bailey: Kerry Wood?
Votto: Raul Ibanez?

Obviously it doesn't mean a guy is going to have his comps career, but perhaps it can give us some insight in to the range of reasonable outcomes as we talk about upsides.

Patrick Bateman
11-27-2007, 11:04 AM
I think the Snell/Cueto comp is pretty apt.

dougdirt
11-27-2007, 11:10 AM
Bailey: Josh Beckett

Thats the one I have heard since he was drafted and it still makes sense today.

Triples
11-27-2007, 02:53 PM
Bailey: Josh Beckett

Thats the one I have heard since he was drafted and it still makes sense today.

Boy I sure hope you're right. I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on the mound in a crucial game than Beckett. His stuff is nasty and his temperment is perfect. Just the right amount of mental toughness and emotional control combined with a little bit a bad a** attitude.

RedsManRick
11-27-2007, 03:38 PM
How about further down in the system?

Danny Dorn: Trot Nixon?
Drew Stubbs: Mike Cameron?
Juan Fransisco: Wily Mo Pena?
Todd Frazier: Jeff Kent?
Matt Maloney: ?
Devin Moreseco: ?
Travis Wood: ?

dougdirt
11-27-2007, 03:40 PM
I don't see the Francisco - WMP one. WMP is still an absolute physical freak of nature. Francisco has some crazy power, but I have yet to see anyone with the raw power that WMP displayed.

Superdude
11-27-2007, 03:44 PM
That's wierd. I was thinking the exact same thing about Cueto a couple days ago. If his stuff is as advertised, he's basically the stocky version of Ian Snell. Cueto's changeup is probably a little better, but they're almost identical.

Redman15
11-27-2007, 03:46 PM
Dorn = Mark Kotsay
Turner = Craig Biggio
Francisco = David Ortiz
Valaika = Adam Everett
Stubbs = Reed Johnson

Benihana
11-27-2007, 03:47 PM
How about instead of the same old Mike Cameron comps,
Drew Stubbs: Steve Finley?

Benihana
11-27-2007, 03:48 PM
Turner = Craig Biggio
Francisco = David Ortiz


Mesoraco = Johnny Bench
Lotzkar = Sandy Koufax
Waring = Babe Ruth

dougdirt
11-27-2007, 03:49 PM
Dorn = Mark Kotsay
Turner = Craig Biggio
Francisco = David Ortiz
Valaika = Adam Everett
Stubbs = Reed Johnson

:confused:

Patrick Bateman
11-27-2007, 04:00 PM
Mesoraco has some very similar traits to Russell Martin.

Heath
11-27-2007, 04:29 PM
Mesoraco has some very similar traits to Russell Martin.

Let's hope he never shows similar traits to Ricky Martin.

Now if he can sing, dance, and catch.......

Redman15
11-27-2007, 05:50 PM
Here are the comp stats for Ortiz/Francisco at A ball.

Batting Statistics Ortiz vs Francisco
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG
1996Wisc Midw 20 Sea A 129 485 89 156 34 2 18 93 3 4 52 108 5 8 2 4 5 .322
2007 Day Midw 20 Cin A 135 534 69 143 21 4 25 90 12 6 23 161 3 6 0 2 14 .268

dougdirt
11-27-2007, 05:54 PM
Here are the comp stats for Ortiz/Francisco at A ball.

Batting Statistics Ortiz vs Francisco
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG
1996Wisc Midw 20 Sea A 129 485 89 156 34 2 18 93 3 4 52 108 5 8 2 4 5 .322
2007 Day Midw 20 Cin A 135 534 69 143 21 4 25 90 12 6 23 161 3 6 0 2 14 .268

I don't see it. Ortiz knew how to take a walk, hit for a higher average and had a higher isolated slugging percentage as well. They also have different body types.

OnBaseMachine
11-27-2007, 06:13 PM
I actually compared Cueto to Ian Snell a while back. Mario Soto also comes to mind.

Redman15
11-27-2007, 06:37 PM
Ortiz has a different body today than in 1996. Who knows what Francisco will look like in say 2014? You put 40 lbs on Juan and I'll bet you see a lot of similarities in the two of them. Their numbers in single A are very comparable, if you look at hits, HR's and RBI's.
They are both big,left handed hitters and Juan will be playing 1B or DH at some point in his career. Don't forget at one point in 2003, David (Arias) Ortiz was cut by the Twins. The fans in Beantown are still pretty happy about that.

dougdirt
11-27-2007, 06:44 PM
Ortiz has a different body today than in 1996. Who knows what Francisco will look like in say 2014? You put 40 lbs on Juan and I'll bet you see a lot of similarities in the two of them. Their numbers in single A are very comparable, if you look at hits, HR's and RBI's.
They are both big,left handed hitters and Juan will be playing 1B or DH at some point in his career. Don't forget at one point in 2003, David (Arias) Ortiz was cut by the Twins. The fans in Beantown are still pretty happy about that.

RBI is not exactly a repeatable stat. The big difference between the two players is Ortiz has always understood strikezone judgement and Francisco swings at everything thrown that isn't behind him (slight exaggeration). Oritz hit nearly 60 points higher in batting average department, probably thanks to his understanding of the strikezone. As far as 40 pounds on JF... well that still leaves him about 20-30 pounds short of where Ortiz is.

Redman15
11-27-2007, 06:55 PM
They list Ortiz at 237 and Francisco at 180. I saw Francisco in person at least 15 times this year and there is no way he 180 lbs.He has to be at least 220 lbs. Logan Parker is also about 220 lbs. No doubt Juan strikes out way too much. He does have tremendous power though. Hopefully he can learn some plate discipline. You can get him out with 2 curve balls in dirt and a fastball up out of the zone most of the time.

Mario-Rijo
11-27-2007, 10:35 PM
They list Ortiz at 237 and Francisco at 180. I saw Francisco in person at least 15 times this year and there is no way he 180 lbs.He has to be at least 220 lbs. Logan Parker is also about 220 lbs. No doubt Juan strikes out way too much. He does have tremendous power though. Hopefully he can learn some plate discipline. You can get him out with 2 curve balls in dirt and a fastball up out of the zone most of the time.

180??? I had no idea they had him listed there. He is at least 205-210 lbs.

*BaseClogger*
11-27-2007, 11:11 PM
Joey Votto-I always think Ryan Klesko
Waring-Troy Glaus?

jmcclain19
11-27-2007, 11:40 PM
Votto just reminds me of Will Clark. Can't really explain why.

M2
11-28-2007, 01:01 PM
I like the Votto-Klesko comparison.

Some others:

Dorn - Good comp, Brad Hawpe (corner OF, LH platoon hitter with power); not so good comp, Jorge Piedra
Stubbs - Ruben Rivera

jojo
11-28-2007, 01:38 PM
I actually compared Cueto to Ian Snell a while back. Mario Soto also comes to mind.

Yes, it's not a new comp (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1362164&postcount=12). Nonetheless, it's probably a pretty good one.




Ian Snell (RH)
Johnny Cueto might be one of Snellís biggest fans since a successful Snell might help end the bias against short starting pitchers in the majors possibly helping Cueto avoid a probable move to the pen as an uber power righty set up man. Snell was rushed to the big leagues by Littelfield and still struggles with his command at times being best described as raw, short, and young with great stuff. Heís a budding power pitcher with neutral BIP tendencies. His fastball has exceptional velocity (high 90ís while comfortably sitting at 93-94mph) which makes his hammer curve formidable. Heís yet to develop his change into a major league quality pitch and lefties give him difficulty. Given his lack of a third quality pitch, he may yet ultimately end up being an above average short reliever (much to Cueto's chagrin no doubt).

RedsManRick
11-29-2007, 10:32 AM
Does Snell throw a slider or a curve? I've seen each listed, but not both. The Pitch/Fx data says he throws a slider.

BoydsOfSummer
12-04-2007, 09:21 AM
Benito Santiago and Devin Mesoraco.

I think I'd be fairly happy with that.

NeilHamburger
12-04-2007, 06:05 PM
How about instead of the same old Mike Cameron comps,
Drew Stubbs: Steve Finley?

If this turns out to be true Marty will be so happy he won't know what to do with himself. Even though he probably wouldn't be happy having anyone compared with Steve "Mr. Baseball" Finley.

gedred69
12-04-2007, 08:54 PM
This thread is turning into a bunch of dreamy mental masturbation to whomever's fav's. Sorry to rain on anybody's fantasy, but sheesh.......

camisadelgolf
12-05-2007, 03:55 PM
I wouldn't call him a prospect, but I'd compare Norris Hopper to Greg Tubbs.

Rojo
12-06-2007, 06:25 PM
I like the Votto-Klesko comparison.

I really like that comp as well. Here's a pointless one: Chris Valaika-Tim Tuefel.

RedsManRick
12-06-2007, 06:54 PM
How's this for "mental masturbation":

Votto = Will Clark

:)

BuckeyeRedleg
12-06-2007, 11:21 PM
Votto = Ben Broussard

Stubbs = Jim Edmunds

Cueto = Tom Gordon

Bailey = Todd Van Poppel

Valenzuela = Elmer Dessens

Frazier = Scott Rolen

Roenicke = Trevor Hoffman

Maloney = Cliff Lee

Bruce = Chuck Norris, Tim Tebow, or Superman

dougdirt
12-06-2007, 11:29 PM
Bruce = Chuck Norris, Tim Tebow, or Superman

Please. Chuck Norris would kill both Tebow and Superman at the exact same time with his big toes.

I would say more like Bruce= Mr Rodgers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8ye4mYR878 for a reference to the best song ever.

TC81190
12-08-2007, 04:59 PM
Bailey = Todd Van Poppel

:rolleyes:

camisadelgolf
12-09-2007, 01:57 PM
Johnny Cueto = Jose Rijo

I'm pulling that one out of you-know-where, but they're both known for great sliders, right?

BuckeyeRedleg
12-09-2007, 08:52 PM
:rolleyes:

Solid contribution to the thread.

dougdirt
12-09-2007, 09:01 PM
Solid contribution to the thread.

Well it was about as good as the Bailey = Van Poppel comparison....

BuckeyeRedleg
12-09-2007, 11:57 PM
Well it was about as good as the Bailey = Van Poppel comparison....

But the Bruce comparison to Chuck Norris was okay, right?

Please lighten up. A tad. LOL.

dougdirt
12-09-2007, 11:59 PM
But the Bruce comparison to Chuck Norris was okay, right?

Please lighten up. A tad. LOL.

Well had we known there was sarcasm there, it would have been almost as good as the Chuck Norris one.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-09-2007, 11:59 PM
By the way, the Bailey = Van Poppel comparison was way better than :rolleyes: so I disagree.

:)

BuckeyeRedleg
12-10-2007, 12:17 AM
Well had we known there was sarcasm there, it would have been almost as good as the Chuck Norris one.

Don't worry, I'll spell it out for you in advance next time Doug.

In the future, though, I would suggest that if someone has an issue or question regarding something that they might disagree with or misunderstand - to avoid, with all their power, quoting a post and responding with just a rolling eyes emoticon.

It makes it hard to take that poster seriously and it's quite rude to your fellow poster. I think many of us on here have earned the benefit of the doubt and don't deserve to be treated that way.

dougdirt
12-10-2007, 12:23 AM
Don't worry, I'll spell it out for you in advance next time Doug.

In the future, though, I would suggest that if someone has an issue or question regarding something that they might disagree with or misunderstand - to avoid, with all their power, quoting a post and responding with just a rolling eyes emoticon.

It makes it hard to take that poster seriously and it's quite rude to your fellow poster. I think many of us on here have earned the benefit of the doubt and don't deserve to be treated that way.

I am very bad at picking up sarcasm and I guess lately there have been lots of anti Bailey types of things going around so I probably took it the wrong way because of that.

Cinderella Man is on TNT currently, so I am going back to watching that.... I suggest the rest of you also turn it on. Great movie.

camisadelgolf
12-10-2007, 03:01 AM
Cinderella Man is on TNT currently, so I am going back to watching that.... I suggest the rest of you also turn it on. Great movie.

:thumbup:

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 11:04 AM
Am I the only one a little disappointed when Jay Bruce is comped with Larry Walker....I mean Larry Walker was great, but I' hoping Bruce is even better.

mlbfan30
12-12-2007, 11:25 AM
Have you ever looked at Larry Walker's stats. His career .9654 OPS is 20th all-time in baseball. He has an MVP, 7 GG, 5 AS, 3 SS. He averaged 110/31/107 per 162 games. So your saying that the only way to not be disappointed would be for Bruce to not make the HOF, since Walker is a borderline HOF player.

FutureRedsGM
12-12-2007, 11:26 AM
Am I the only one a little disappointed when Jay Bruce is comped with Larry Walker....I mean Larry Walker was great, but I' hoping Bruce is even better.

I agree comletely. If, indeed, Bruce is comparable to Larry Walker, I don't see him as "untouchable". However, if he is comparable to Griffey, as the Bats manager noted, I would have to make sure he was in a Reds uni for a long time. Bruce is being called a "once in a generation talent" by some. That seems to me to be a little more than Larry Walker ever was.

mlbfan30
12-12-2007, 11:54 AM
I agree comletely. If, indeed, Bruce is comparable to Larry Walker, I don't see him as "untouchable". However, if he is comparable to Griffey, as the Bats manager noted, I would have to make sure he was in a Reds uni for a long time. Bruce is being called a "once in a generation talent" by some. That seems to me to be a little more than Larry Walker ever was.

Player A
.290AVG .374OBP .553SLG 140OPS+

Player B
.313AVG .400OBP .565SLG 140OPS+

Who is the better hitter?

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 12:20 PM
Have you ever looked at Larry Walker's stats. His career .9654 OPS is 20th all-time in baseball. He has an MVP, 7 GG, 5 AS, 3 SS. He averaged 110/31/107 per 162 games. So your saying that the only way to not be disappointed would be for Bruce to not make the HOF, since Walker is a borderline HOF player.

I may have drank too much Kool-Aid...but I tend to think Walker's stats were puffed up at Coors Field...maybe I am wrong. Regardless...yes, his stats are good...but the fact that the Reds are keeping their #1 bargaining chip completely off the table makes my expectations off the charts for Bruce. It seems the Reds could have Bedard,Haren,probably even Santana (who is en route to a hall of fame career) if they parted with Bruce. So all I am saying is he had better be worth holding on to. And believe me, I am rooting for him with all my heart. But honestly, I do hope he is better than Larry Walker.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 01:33 PM
In 1997 when Walker won the MVP award, his OPS at home was 1.169. His OPS on the road? 1.176. He had a few years with a higher road OPS than a home OPS, but also several the other way as well. Still, on the road during that time was over .900.

Lets also not forget that Jay Bruce will be playing in Cincinnati, while not Coors in its day, its still a pretty friendly home run park.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 01:52 PM
I actually am struggling to find a site with Walker's career home/road stats. However, check this out.

http://www.rotochamps.com/mlb-1052-Larry-Walker_5.html

Go down to the bottom set of stats and click between home and road. Granted this is not during his prime seasons but the difference is remarkable. Also he was in STL a short amount of this time...I do realize. But the difference is dramatic. During the season that he hit over .350, he hit over .400 at home, and less than .300 on the road.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 02:02 PM
In 1997 when Walker won the MVP award, his OPS at home was 1.169. His OPS on the road? 1.176. He had a few years with a higher road OPS than a home OPS, but also several the other way as well. Still, on the road during that time was over .900.

Lets also not forget that Jay Bruce will be playing in Cincinnati, while not Coors in its day, its still a pretty friendly home run park.

Ok...I found his home/road splits on baseballreference.com. Now Doug...I love your insight and posts. But you threw that stat up there as if it shows he is an equally good hitter at home and on the road...that season he was. But over his career he has been significantly, and I mean significantly better at home. Let's just be fair here.

OPS:

1995 H 1.131
A .845

1996 H 1.248 (half season played)
A .523

1998 H 1.240
A .891

And finally...
Career 1.068 Home
.865 Away

mlbfan30
12-12-2007, 02:24 PM
And yet, with Walker having played in so many hitters parks, his OPS+ is the exactly the same as Griffey.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 02:38 PM
Ok...I found his home/road splits on baseballreference.com. Now Doug...I love your insight and posts. But you threw that stat up there as if it shows he is an equally good hitter at home and on the road...that season he was. But over his career he has been significantly, and I mean significantly better at home. Let's just be fair here.

OPS:

1995 H 1.131
A .845

1996 H 1.248 (half season played)
A .523

1998 H 1.240
A .891

And finally...
Career 1.068 Home
.865 Away

I can't read.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 03:33 PM
I'll take another Larry Walker...

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 03:44 PM
I'll take another Larry Walker...

Would you let another Larry Walker hold up a deal for Haren or Santana???

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 03:50 PM
He didn't play his entire career in Coors. Over the time he was in Coor;s he put up a lot of .900 OPS seasons on the road. Between 1995 and 2003 he had these Road OPS seasons:
845
523 (with an absurd .135 BABIP!)
1176 (higher than home OPS)
923
1044
946 (higher than home OPS)
1193 (higher than home OPS)
920
916 (higher than home OPS)

In 4 out of his 9 seasons he had a higher road OPS than home OPS, including 7 seasons in a row with a 900 or higher OPS on the road.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=walkela01&year=2001

Doug...it appears you messed up and are comparing his ops on lhp vs rhp for some seasons. Please repost and reconsider after viewing the correct stats.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 03:50 PM
Would you let another Larry Walker hold up a deal for Haren or Santana???

No, but thats not how this deal is. We are talking 6 years versus 2 and 3 years. Big Difference.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 03:55 PM
No, but thats not how this deal is. We are talking 6 years versus 2 and 3 years. Big Difference.

Like I said above...there are a million scenarios all this trade talk could work out. It's going to be hard for me to be in favor of trading these guys for a 1 or 2 year rental...thats an easy one if you ask me. However...if you give up a prospect with Larry Walkeresque potential for a guy you can and are willing to lock up long term here....it should be considered.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 03:59 PM
I don't think the Reds are in the conversation to pay 20+ million for one player and that is what Santana is going to be getting. As for Haren, I would say he is looking at 15+ million easy once his contract is up given the market so long as he stays healthy.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 04:02 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=walkela01&year=2001

Doug...it appears you messed up and are comparing his ops on lhp vs rhp for some seasons. Please repost and reconsider after viewing the correct stats.

Well then color me blind. My bad.

That said, I don't think that Jay is going to have those types of splits (home/road) because he has hit everywhere he has been.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 04:05 PM
I don't think the Reds are in the conversation to pay 20+ million for one player and that is what Santana is going to be getting. As for Haren, I would say he is looking at 15+ million easy once his contract is up given the market so long as he stays healthy.

I didn't think the Reds would spend 10 mill/year for a closer but Bob did. You just never know I'd say. I just don't understand how a guy who comps to Larry Walker gets placed in an Al Gore style lockbox (no political view here...just referring to SNL skit...don't press the panic button anyone) and isn't allowed to come out in trade discussions revolving around arguably 3 of the top 15 pitchers in the majors.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 04:12 PM
No, but thats not how this deal is. We are talking 6 years versus 2 and 3 years. Big Difference.

thanks doug you responded for me...

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 04:13 PM
I didn't think the Reds would spend 10 mill/year for a closer but Bob did. You just never know I'd say. I just don't understand how a guy who comps to Larry Walker gets placed in an Al Gore style lockbox (no political view here...just referring to SNL skit...don't press the panic button anyone) and isn't allowed to come out in trade discussions revolving around arguably 3 of the top 15 pitchers in the majors.

Because MVP type hitters are more valuable than CY Young type pitchers. Pitching may win championships, but hitting all year gets you to that point where that pitching matters.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 04:16 PM
thanks doug you responded for me...

Who in here forsaw Arroyo getting signed long term...I've already said...it would be hard for me to go along with a trade for a 2 year rental. But I guess I am giving the front office too much credit and have too much faith in them. I realize the ramifications of the 6 years before FA vs the 2 years say Bedard has left.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 04:16 PM
Because MVP type hitters are more valuable than CY Young type pitchers. Pitching may win championships, but hitting all year gets you to that point where that pitching matters.

Also, pitching is more volatile year to year and pitchers generally suffer more injuries. Therefore, it is wiser to invest LTC in hitters than pitchers. To me, the best way to build a team is to develope cheap young pitching and piece together a rag-tag offense with some of the undervalued FA's...

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 04:17 PM
Who in here forsaw Arroyo getting signed long term...I've already said...it would be hard for me to go along with a trade for a 2 year rental. But I guess I am giving the front office too much credit and have too much faith in them. I realize the ramifications of the 6 years before FA vs the 2 years say Bedard has left.

Arroyo was a little different. He wasn't set to make $20 million a year on the market...

camisadelgolf
12-13-2007, 04:57 AM
Because MVP type hitters are more valuable than CY Young type pitchers. Pitching may win championships, but hitting all year gets you to that point where that pitching matters.

I think Jay Bruce will be able to produce anywhere, but if he calls Great American Ballpark home, I think there will be a noticeable difference in his home/road splits.

RedlegJake
12-16-2007, 03:50 PM
I'm ready to be called nuts but wen I watched clips of Maloney this summer my mind went back a generation to a hall-of-famer named Don Sutton. Sutton's fastball was mnerely average but he was Curveball hell for a batter. Different looks, different planes, sharp breaks, decent command and a master of mixing up things so his fb looked faster and he rarely hung his curves. Now definitely I'd call Sutton the absolute ceiling and I want to see Matt's K rate stay up at AAA but color me impressed. Sometimes we wear fireballer blinders but Maloney impresses me. I think his floor is a #5 and you've already seen where I see his ceiling. With Bailey and Cueto he is glove fit, too - a great complement to Homer's hard stuff and Cueto's slider.