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Doc. Scott
11-28-2007, 04:11 PM
The Rule 5 Draft coming up in a couple of weeks probably won't have results as exciting as last year's, mostly due to the fact that clubs can go without protecting players on their 40-man for an extra year. (This (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=670) BA blog entry has some names that were added just in time.)

Here's a free Baseball America piece that explains it in detail.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/265252.html

There have also been/will be a few Baseball Prospectus pieces about the draft, but they're subscriber only. One by Bryan Smith (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6954) talks about AFL players that will be exposed come draft day. A few of those names:

Sung Ki Jung (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Sung-Ki-Jung.shtml), RHR, Braves
Mark Rosen (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Mark-Rosen.shtml), LHR, Diamondbacks
Raul Padron (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Raul-Padron.shtml), C, Athletics
Dusty Hughes (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Dusty-Hughes.shtml), LHS, Royals
Lincoln Holdzkom (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Lincoln-Holdzkom.shtml), RHR, Red Sox
Fernando Hernandez (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Fernando-Hernandez-3.shtml), RHR, White Sox
Steven Jackson (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Steven-Jackson.shtml), RHR, Yankees
Jarrett Grube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Jarrett-Grube.shtml), RHR, Rockies

Smith promises more pieces as well, so I'll link those when they come up. Carlos Guevara is the only Reds player mentioned as a real Rule 5 possibility so far.

AdamDunn
11-28-2007, 04:27 PM
I'd rather protect Carlos Guevara than Craig Tatum.

Matt700wlw
11-28-2007, 05:26 PM
I wonder if Krivsky can pull off another one or two this year?

Joseph
11-28-2007, 05:37 PM
You have to wonder if there is room. The only real option I see barring trades being made, is for a middle reliever type.

dougdirt
11-28-2007, 05:47 PM
I wonder if Krivsky can pull off another one or two this year?

I doubt it. The fact that the Reds had 1 Rule V guy pan out in a season is impressive, the fact that they had two was incredible. I just don't expect it to happen again, even with 1 guy this year.

chicoruiz
11-28-2007, 09:25 PM
Hmmmm...

Dusty Hughes is described in Smith's article as a left-handed starter who induces a lot of ground balls and was just voted Pitcher of the Year in the Arizina Fall League.

Hmmmm...

Doc. Scott
11-28-2007, 09:26 PM
Hmmmm...

Dusty Hughes is described in Smith's article as a left-handed starter who induces a lot of ground balls and was just voted Pitcher of the Year in the Arizina Fall League.

Hmmmm...


He's also five-foot-nine and doesn't get a lot of strikeouts.

dougdirt
11-28-2007, 09:27 PM
Hmmmm...

Dusty Hughes is described in Smith's article as a left-handed starter who induces a lot of ground balls and was just voted Pitcher of the Year in the Arizina Fall League.

Hmmmm...

Which is funny because his GB% in AA this year was 39% and in the AFL it was 40%.... someone wasn't paying enough attention when they made that comment.

*BaseClogger*
11-28-2007, 09:28 PM
He's also five-foot-nine and doesn't get a lot of strikeouts.

I don't know if this is a good thing or bad thing, but he is from the Royals' system...

chicoruiz
11-28-2007, 09:55 PM
I don't know if this is a good thing or bad thing, but he is from the Royals' system.
To me, it's a good thing. Bad teams are more likely than good teams to make mistakes and leave the wrong players unprotected.

*BaseClogger*
11-28-2007, 10:12 PM
To me, it's a good thing. Bad teams are more likely than good teams to make mistakes and leave the wrong players unprotected.

thats what I was thinking, but then I was like, well, don't bad teams make bad decisions in the first place? I don't know, this is mind bottling...

RedsManRick
11-28-2007, 10:53 PM
When I look at all the people available, my eye goes to the reliever with a sub 3.00 ERA and 11.63 K/9. I wish we could get a like that........

AmarilloRed
11-29-2007, 12:02 AM
Won't the Reds have to drop some some more players from the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 Draft?

dougdirt
11-29-2007, 12:07 AM
Won't the Reds have to drop some some more players from the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 Draft?

They can drop them at almost any time. If they want to make the move, they can.

Blue
11-29-2007, 12:36 AM
I doubt they take a relief pitcher. If they want a young reliever who hasn't pitched in the majors they would just use Roenicke or Pelland.

BRM
11-29-2007, 09:42 AM
When I look at all the people available, my eye goes to the reliever with a sub 3.00 ERA and 11.63 K/9. I wish we could get a like that........

Yeah, but he does it with a trick pitch...

M2
11-29-2007, 10:26 AM
Here's the BA list for Rule 5:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/265252.html

Randor Bierd (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=17201) could be a great pickup. Brian Barton (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=966) supposedly played a bit indifferently last year, but I'd like to see Dusty Baker get ahold of him. Anyone know what sort of defensive chops Diory Hernandez (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=6529) has at SS? Of course, given his Twins routes can Wayne Krivsky stay away from Kyle Aselton (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=16559)?

RedsManRick
11-29-2007, 10:28 AM
Yeah, but he does it with a trick pitch...

I don't care how he does it. Let him keep doing it until it stops working. Mariano Rivera has done pretty well for himself a single pitch. Are there more pitchers in the majors throwing screwballs than there are in AA?

The point is, if you aren't going to promote him when he's absolutely dominating, then why keep him in your system at all? They should have traded him if they didn't think his screwball would work. I wouldn't give up on a guy who's killing his league because I think he might not succeed as he moves up. I'd move him up and see how it goes.

I view him like knuckleballer who's a lot easier to catch. Tim Wakefield has had a fine career throwing essentially a single pitch.

BRM
11-29-2007, 10:34 AM
I don't care how he does it. Let him keep doing it until it stops working. Mariano Rivera has done pretty well for himself a single pitch. Are there more pitchers in the majors throwing screwballs than there are in AA?

The point is, if you aren't going to promote him when he's absolutely dominating, then why keep him in your system at all? They should have traded him if they didn't think his screwball would work. I wouldn't give up on a guy who's killing his league because I think he might not succeed as he moves up. I'd move him up and see how it goes.

I view him like knuckleballer who's a lot easier to catch. Tim Wakefield has had a fine career throwing essentially a single pitch.

I agree with you RMR. I was just being a smart-aleck. :)

M2
11-29-2007, 11:01 AM
I grew up watching Tug McGraw. I amazed more pitchers don't throw screwballs.

dougdirt
11-29-2007, 12:18 PM
I don't care how he does it. Let him keep doing it until it stops working. Mariano Rivera has done pretty well for himself a single pitch. Are there more pitchers in the majors throwing screwballs than there are in AA?

The point is, if you aren't going to promote him when he's absolutely dominating, then why keep him in your system at all? They should have traded him if they didn't think his screwball would work. I wouldn't give up on a guy who's killing his league because I think he might not succeed as he moves up. I'd move him up and see how it goes.

I view him like knuckleballer who's a lot easier to catch. Tim Wakefield has had a fine career throwing essentially a single pitch.
You are now assuming other teams think it will work too, and to be honest, maybe they don't see it working either. If thats the case, there is no point in trading him if your return is going to be someone who isn't going to be as successful in AA as Guevara.

redsmetz
11-29-2007, 12:21 PM
I think folks are probably right that the big club isn't likely to strike gold two years in a row, but I wonder if there are any plums in the minor league phase.

nate
11-29-2007, 01:08 PM
I grew up watching Tug McGraw. I amazed more pitchers don't throw screwballs.

I had always heard that screwballs were really hard on the arm. Dunno if that's true...Fernando sure seemed to make it work for a long time.

dougdirt
11-29-2007, 01:11 PM
I had always heard that screwballs were really hard on the arm. Dunno if that's true...Fernando sure seemed to make it work for a long time.

There are rumors out there that the screwball actually turns your arm over the more you throw it. Carl Hubbell threw a screwball for the better part of his career and legend has it that his palm faced outward as a result of it.

D-Man
11-29-2007, 01:14 PM
Are there any catch-and-throw catchers available in this year draft, and more specifically, one with some offensive upside? The catcher position strikes me as the organization's most pressing need for depth. I'm not opposed to carrying a young guy to caddy for Ross, particularly if he has a nice glove.

I don't imagine that Dusty would carry three catchers, but there are other options with Valentin (trade, DFA in Spring Training, or using him in the infield backup/PH/emergency catcher role).

dougdirt
11-29-2007, 01:17 PM
Are there any catch-and-throw catchers available in this year draft, and more specifically, one with some offensive upside? The catcher position strikes me as the organization's most pressing need for depth. I'm not opposed to carrying a young guy to caddy for Ross, particularly if he has a nice glove.

I don't imagine that Dusty would carry three catchers, but there are other options with Valentin (trade, DFA in Spring Training, or using him in the infield backup/PH/emergency catcher role).

Honestly, if we are looking for a catch and throw guy with maybe some offensive upside we need to resign Miguel Perez. No one has really ever questioned his defense. He is just 23 years old and showed some promise with the bat after having his rib removed this season.

bucksfan2
11-29-2007, 01:43 PM
I hope the reds take another flyer on a pitcher in the Rule V draft. I would want them to handle it the same way they handled Burton. Didn't Burton spend 2 rehab trips in the Minors? Im sure his injury wasn't that serious to DL him but I am also pretty sure that a Rule V player would be mad if he were on the MLB DL because of the money he would be making.

M2
11-29-2007, 02:02 PM
I had always heard that screwballs were really hard on the arm. Dunno if that's true...Fernando sure seemed to make it work for a long time.

There's a counterargument that it pronates the arm in a more natural direction than trying to snap off a curve or slider or splitter. Carl Hubbell's arm may have wound up with a funny bow to it, but that didn't keep him from having a phenomenal 16-year career.

flash
11-29-2007, 02:25 PM
If Hughes is still availible when the Reds get to pick I would say grab him.The Reds can put him in the pen or start him.

mth123
11-29-2007, 03:15 PM
The Reds need a guy who can pitch in the long relief/spot starter role who can give a lot of innings in blow outs. Seems a perfect spot for a Rule 5 guy and if he's a LH all the better. At worst it keeps the alternate starters like Maloney on regular turns in AAA instead of sitting in the pen with sporadic and uncertain use.

RedsManRick
11-29-2007, 04:00 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but Maloney strikes me precisely as the sort of guy who's likely to end up in that spot starter role over the course of his career.

Aronchis
11-29-2007, 04:09 PM
Maybe a spot for Jerry Sowers if the Reds can pry him from the Indians.

Listen, Jerry, you are playing for the Reds one way or another!!!!

mth123
11-29-2007, 04:11 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but Maloney strikes me precisely as the sort of guy who's likely to end up in that spot starter role over the course of his career.

Me too, but I'd rather they leave him in AAA and maintain the illusiion that he can be something more. IMO his value lies in what he may bring back in a deal. The Reds could use another "find" and if its to be Rule 5, it seems that role is the most logical in terms of needing some one to fill it and in terms of being able to hide a guy on the roster while seeing what he has. Defensive IF may be another spot, but the Reds position player group is pretty crowded right now.

lollipopcurve
11-29-2007, 04:17 PM
I don't see the Reds going Rule V this year. The roster is maxed out, the bench looks much better and the team seems to be gearing for a run at the Central title.

HokieRed
11-29-2007, 07:28 PM
To get back to the names first posted by Doc Scott, does anybody besides me think that Fernando Hernandez's numbers are pretty interesting? Here's last year: 2007 Birmingham Sou 22 Chw AA 1 3 3.06 60 0 0 0 27 9 85.1 73 30 29 4 23 84 4 0 7.70 0.42 2.43 8.86 1.13 -- His numbers from the other years are quite consistent with these as well.

Mario-Rijo
11-29-2007, 07:42 PM
I don't see the Reds going Rule V this year. The roster is maxed out, the bench looks much better and the team seems to be gearing for a run at the Central title.

Frankly I think Jerry Gil could come off the 40 man, his odds of ever being what they may hope seem slim too me. That said they may look to replace him with another SS like the one M2 mentioned, Diory Hernandez. Only they know if he can field, I'm sure he cannot if he is ava. because he seems to do pretty fair at the plate.

And after looking at #'s he seems to make a lot of errors, only a .955 Fldg. % in the minors. He does look pretty good at 2B though, .994 albeit in a much smaller sample size 311 games at SS and only 49 at 2nd.

DannyB
11-29-2007, 08:13 PM
I grew up watching Tug McGraw. I amazed more pitchers don't throw screwballs.

Tom Browning seemed to have some sucess with it.

mth123
11-29-2007, 08:32 PM
To get back to the names first posted by Doc Scott, does anybody besides me think that Fernando Hernandez's numbers are pretty interesting? Here's last year: 2007 Birmingham Sou 22 Chw AA 1 3 3.06 60 0 0 0 27 9 85.1 73 30 29 4 23 84 4 0 7.70 0.42 2.43 8.86 1.13 -- His numbers from the other years are quite consistent with these as well.

Yes. He jumped out at me.

OnBaseMachine
11-29-2007, 10:05 PM
Randor Bierd and Matt Whitney are two guys I would love to take a chance on. Bierd throws a sinking 90-93 mph fastball, to go along with a solid slider and average changeup. Whitney belted 32 homers last year and is willing to take a walk. He could provide some solid RH power off the bench.

Fernando Hernandez also looks like a potential solid target.

Doc. Scott
12-03-2007, 06:39 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=674

Blogged update on all things Rule 5 from BA.

One new name: Padres RHR Paul Abraham, 27, who put up very good numbers in Double-A and the Venezuelan Winter League this year. Former indy baller released by Texas a few years ago.

HokieRed
12-03-2007, 07:43 PM
If he's still on the board, Hernandez looks clearly like he's worth a shot.

Topcat
12-04-2007, 04:13 AM
Not to thread jack but what about this guy http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6359

Recently dfa'd by the Cardinals.

camisadelgolf
12-04-2007, 05:01 AM
Not to thread jack but what about this guy http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6359

Recently dfa'd by the Cardinals.

He's a left-handed outfielder who strikes out a lot. I wouldn't mind having him in AAA (the Reds desperately need depth at the corner positions in AAA), but I wouldn't count on him helping the Reds at any point.

Doc. Scott
12-04-2007, 11:02 AM
Not to thread jack but what about this guy http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6359

Recently dfa'd by the Cardinals.

You might want to bring that up under the Six-Year FA thread. This is Rule 5 discussion.

Doc. Scott
12-04-2007, 12:29 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=675

Rumors that the Rays will take Cleveland OF Brian Barton (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brian-Barton-3.shtml) with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft Thursday.

dougdirt
12-04-2007, 12:52 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=675

Rumors that the Rays will take Cleveland OF Brian Barton (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brian-Barton-3.shtml) with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft Thursday.

Ever since he was left unprotected it has seemed that someone was going to take him, just a matter of how long it would take until someone did take him. He is an interesting guy to take a chance on.

Doc. Scott
12-05-2007, 12:39 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=677

Rays backing off from Barton. Other rumors: Royals OF Chris Lubanski to the Marlins; the Josh Hamilton success story lending some hope to fallen Florida first-rounder and RHP Jeff Allison being taken by someone.

Doc. Scott
12-05-2007, 05:14 PM
BP's Bryan Smith comes through with his promised piece about more Rule 5 candidates.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6972

The piece focuses more on pitchers, and mentions the Reds' Juan Rojas (although I really don't think the guy has more than a miniscule chance to stick on a big-league team having pitched only a couple years and none above High-A). Sadly, it's a subscription article.

Patrick Bateman
12-05-2007, 05:28 PM
I'd take a shot on Allison. If the Reds do upgrade the rotation before the season starts, it may be pretty easy to hide him in mop up for the season.

The Reds have succeeded with Hamilton, so I could see Allison seeing it as a great opportunity.

Lubanski is another guy I'd give a shot if he fell to us. He's still only 22 with decent success in AA. Willing to take a walk. As far as I know he can handle centre, and certainly is more of an athlete than anything. Plenty of upside, so he'd be my first choice.

He struggled big time in the PCL, but as I said he's only 22. Lots of time to grow into a hitter.

Doc. Scott
12-05-2007, 06:26 PM
I'd take a shot on Allison. If the Reds do upgrade the rotation before the season starts, it may be pretty easy to hide him in mop up for the season.

The Reds have succeeded with Hamilton, so I could see Allison seeing it as a great opportunity.

Lubanski is another guy I'd give a shot if he fell to us. He's still only 22 with decent success in AA. Willing to take a walk. As far as I know he can handle centre, and certainly is more of an athlete than anything. Plenty of upside, so he'd be my first choice.

He struggled big time in the PCL, but as I said he's only 22. Lots of time to grow into a hitter.

I struggle to figure out exactly how much credit the Reds deserve for the salvaging of Hamilton's career beyond taking the chance in the first place. So that colors what I'm about to say:

There is no reason to think lightning will strike twice with regards to Jeff Allison. The Reds do not have any particular organizational strength in rescuing fallen prospects (indeed, if it's even possible to really measure such a thing).

I don't know that I'm willing to spend a 25-man spot on a guy who won't necessarily be able to consistently contribute positively to the team's chances of success. My opinion has changed about this- part of it reflects the reality of the Castellini/Baker win-now worldview.

So, my point: Allison's the kind of chance a non-contender takes. The public perception is that Rule 5 choices are "risk-free", but there is only so much in the way of organizational resources and opportunity to evaluate talent. There are only so many spots- and you have to use them to maximize present and future value at all times.

Matt700wlw
12-05-2007, 06:40 PM
Trent -


Krivsky said they have "3 or 4" guys they've identified to take in the Rule 5 draft. They pick 7th, but the teams to pick ahead of them must have a spot on the 40-man. That's why they dropped Cantu. It's unlikely all of those "3 or 4" would be gone by the Reds' turn.

The most likely Reds player to be taken would be RHP Carlos Guevara

BEETTLEBUG
12-05-2007, 08:05 PM
What time is Rule5 Draft tomorrow and how soon will it be posted or is it live some where for FREE?

OnBaseMachine
12-05-2007, 09:48 PM
What time is Rule5 Draft tomorrow and how soon will it be posted or is it live some where for FREE?

9:00 AM.

Ron Madden
12-06-2007, 02:54 AM
Silly question here.

Has any Club ever made it into post season play while carrying a Rule 5 guy on their 25 man roster? :dunno:

mbgrayson
12-06-2007, 08:20 AM
Silly question here.

Has any Club ever made it into post season play while carrying a Rule 5 guy on their 25 man roster? :dunno:

Yes. From WikiPedia, of all places:


Hall of Famers

Roberto Clemente (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roberto_Clemente)
Christy Mathewson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christy_Mathewson)
All Stars


George Bell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Bell_%28baseball_player%29)
Bobby Bonilla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Bonilla)
Jody Davis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jody_Davis)
Darrell Evans (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darrell_Evans)
Kelly Gruber (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_Gruber)
Dave Hollins (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Hollins)
Willie Hernandez (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Hernandez)
John Hudek (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hudek) Selected in minor league portion.
Mike Morgan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Morgan)
Scott Podsednik (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Podsednik) Selected in minor league portion.
Bip Roberts (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bip_Roberts)
Johan Santana (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Santana)
Manny Trillo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Trillo) Selected in minor league portion.
Derrick Turnbow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derrick_Turnbow)
Dan Uggla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Uggla)

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 09:17 AM
Anyone know of a live feed for the Rule 5 draft? And does the ML portion precede the Minor League portion? (by "live feed" I don't mean a broadcast, but maybe a news feed of sorts).

mbgrayson
12-06-2007, 09:22 AM
Anyone know of a live feed for the Rule 5 draft? And does the ML portion precede the Minor League portion? (by "live feed" I don't mean a broadcast, but maybe a news feed of sorts).

I've been looking everywhere for some type of live feed...found nothing so far.

This is good proof that we are obsessed with baseball.....

Redny
12-06-2007, 09:27 AM
9:00 central, 10:00 eastern

mbgrayson
12-06-2007, 09:29 AM
9:00 central, 10:00 eastern

Oops....that explains why it's not on yet. Thanks!

Gallen5862
12-06-2007, 09:47 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=680#more-680
Rule 5 Eve Rundown

Posted Dec. 6, 2007 1:33 am by Chris Kline
Filed under: Winter Meetings
NASHVILLE–Word on the street in Music City in advance of Thursday’s Rule 5 draft came fast and furious late Wednesday night.

According to several sources, the Padres are planning on moving up to Tampa Bay’s No. 1 spot to take Indians outfielder Brian Barton.

Barton is a different breed of player–there is little question about that. After transferring from Loyola-Marymount to Miami to pursue baseball and an aerospace engineering degree, Barton climbed the ranks of Cleveland’s system, ranking as high as the No. 5 prospect in the system heading into the 2007 season.

Barton injured his right knee coming out of the batter’s box in 2006, and after playing through the injury,* he required surgery this offseason. But Barton, who had the surgery in Miami while finishing up his degree, is perhaps even more eccentric than even we at Baseball America knew. The 25-year-old outfielder apparently traveled all season with a pet turtle (name unavailable).

Tigers’ righthander Randor Bierd is expected to go with the next pick to either Houston, who would move up into Pittsburgh’s spot, or the Pirates would use the pick on either Bierd or possibly Rays righthander Evan Meek.

Kansas City was reportedly targeting Astros catcher Lou Santangelo, who missed a large chunk of 2007 after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, with the third pick overall. Santangelo has two power tools though in his bat and throwing arm.

MORE BUZZ

• The only significant name to pop up on the radar Wednesday–aside from Santangelo–was Orioles righthander Nick McCurdy, who is garnering interest among at least three clubs. McCurdy, 27, went a combined 3-6, 3.20 in 76 innings between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk in 2007.

• Rockies righthander Shane Lindsay was also generating more buzz the day before the draft, but like a lot of players in this year’s crop, Lindsay comes with some medical baggage.

Signed as a nondrafted free agent out of Australia in 2003, Lindsay ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the short-season Northwest League in 2005. He also ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the NWL in 2006 after recovering from a partially torn rotator cuff that season. After the Rockies shut him down in Hawaii Winter Baseball at the end of the 2006 season, Lindsay eventually needed labrum surgery and missed the entire 2007 season.

Colorado sent the 22-year-old back to Hawaii in October, where he struggled with command issues, walking 16 in 18 innings. When he was healthy and at his best, Lindsay threw a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and touched 97. He added an above-average curveball and had some feel for a changeup.

• The Reds officially became Rule 5 players Wednesday after they outrighted infielder Jorge Cantu off the 40-man roster. The club reportedly has more interest in arms than position players, though it seems Cincinnati–which blew out the 2006 Rule 5 draft by selecting Josh Hamilton–won’t likely take a chance on a pitcher with a similarly troubled background.

Marlins righthander Jeff Allison’s name has been all over the board in recent days, but don’t expect the Reds to bite.

“I seriously doubt that,” said one scouting director from a National League club. “That’s just Hamilton hype, and we’re talking about a completely different animal under a completely different set of circumstances.”

However, at least Allison’s name was on peoples’ minds. That’s more than can be said about the handful of Allison’s fellow 2003 first-round picks who were not protected. That list of players includes No. 3 overall pick Kyle Sleeth (Tigers), No. 5 overall pick Chris Lubanski (Royals), No. 6 overall pick Ryan Harvey (Cubs), No. 21 pick Matt Moses (Twins) and No. 27 pick Eric Duncan (Yankees).

• The Cubs will be Rule 5 players, with more than one front-office official saying that the club is focused on “arms, arms and more arms.” Chicago picks at No. 19 in the first round of the major league phase.

As you might have guessed, we’ll have full coverage of the Rule 5 here on the blog and after it’s all over with a special podcast.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 09:50 AM
Baseball America will be following along with the draft through their blog.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?cat=18

klw
12-06-2007, 10:08 AM
:)Mr. Serafini you are typing extra fast this morning. Is it just coffee spurring you on?

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:11 AM
All natural baby! Though I will admit to cutting and pasting the next part:

The first pick goes to the Rays taking righthander Tim Lahey from the Twins. He’s a converted catcher from Princeton who throws 90-92 mph with a slider. The Twins also have a connection to the second player picked, as the Pirates took the Rays righthander Evan Meek.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:12 AM
Randor Bierd goes third to the Orioles; lefty Jose Capellan goes to the Giants next. We’ve written up Bierd; Capellan is a young lefty with a bad body but decent stuff who was at Lowell.

Screwballer Carlos Guevara goes to the Marlins, and the Reds follow with Sergio Valenzuela from the Braves organization.

BRM
12-06-2007, 10:12 AM
The Marlins took Guevara. Big surprise there.

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 10:13 AM
Reds follow with Sergio Valenzuela from the Braves organization.

Per BA

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:13 AM
I hope to God Valenzuela is a misprint.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Sergio-Valenzuela.shtml

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:14 AM
Matt Whitney to the Nats, and the Astros take Wes Wright from the Dodgers, a lefthander. The picks are coming fast and furious, too fast for commentary right now, but no bombshells yet. Tim Lahey I can blog on a bit while we have a pause; he wasn’t making the Twins’ Top 30 prospects that I was working on yesterday in my hotel room. But we hear he’s getting traded to the Cubs.

Oakland just took White Sox righty Fernando Hernandez from the White Sox. Did Chris Kline have this covered in the preview or what?

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:15 AM
Brian Barton to the Cardinals; the Twins pass, first team to do so, followed by the Dodgers. The Blue Jays took Randy Wells from the Cubs organization, the first player I can’t think of anything to blog about.

Cubs pass.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:16 AM
The Twins lose another player, but it’s Triple-A veteran R.A. Dickey; the Mariners took him. The Mets then took Rockies closer prospect Steven Register from the Rockies. Mike Gardner, who has a low 90s fastball, goes to the Padres; Gardner was in the Yankees organization. The Phillies took Aussie lefty Travis Blackley; I’m guessing they saw him good in the World Cup last month. The Rockies passed, and the Diamondbacks , Indians and Red Sox did likewise. Round One is done.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:18 AM
Everyone passing in the second round but the Nationals go again, taking Garrett Guzman from the Twins. Wow, the Twins are losing some guys. Guzman’s another guy from Chris’ preview. Again, he was on it.

The Padres took Callix Crabbe from the Brewers system in the second round, but we’re almost done it would seem. The Phillies took Lincoln Holdkom, a hard-throwing righty from the Red Sox that Boston thought it might lose, but certainly didn’t fear losing.

The third round has no picks, 18 selections in the major league phase overall, and we’re done. Commentary to come.

klw
12-06-2007, 10:19 AM
I hope to God Valenzuela is a misprint.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Sergio-Valenzuela.shtml

Those are some ugly numbers and at a low level too.

klw
12-06-2007, 10:22 AM
Draft's all done.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-06-2007, 10:22 AM
Maybe we made this pick for someone else, maybe the Jays wanted him? I don't see how this guy was worth letting Cantu go. I would have to guess that we could have gotten a better prospect by trading Cantu and he wouldn't have had to stay on the 40 to keep him.

Az. Reds Fan
12-06-2007, 10:23 AM
And this Valenzuela kid is going to stick in the majors when he can't get anyone out in low A ball...what a wasted pick...at least Allison would have at least had a chance in a milion...

Kc61
12-06-2007, 10:24 AM
I started this week with high hopes. Now I'm pretty confused about what the Reds are doing.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-06-2007, 10:26 AM
If given the chance I would like to ask WK about this pick tomorrow at Redsfest. I just do not see the value. Not only is he not getting hitters out in low levels, he looks to have struggled almost everywhere . RHP Sergio Valenzuela -- A non-drafted free agent in 2001, Valenzuela has spent the last three seasons playing at the rookie level and is hoping to use the offseason to break out of that mold. After spending two seasons in the Gulf Coast League, the right-hander had a 6.04 ERA with the Danville Braves in the Appalachian League. In two appearances with the Venados de Mazatlan, Valenzuela has a 3.00 ERA.

BRM
12-06-2007, 10:28 AM
Here comes the minor league phase, Triple-A phase first.

Rays select Rashad Eldridge, outfielder, from the Twins system. Then the Pirates take righthander Josh Hill, from — surprise! — the Twins. Lefthander Ray Liotta, who has had offseason shoulder surgery, goes third to the Royals. The Orioles take lefty Ryan Rodriguez, Liotta’s former teammate in the White Sox organization, and the Giants round out the top five with Padres shortstop Juan Ciriaco.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-06-2007, 10:30 AM
Wow the Twins are really getting picked on.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-06-2007, 10:30 AM
Color me confused that Wayne "Rule V" Krivsky thinks higher of a guy like Sergio Valenzuela than Carlos Guevara or Calvin Medlock.

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 10:36 AM
I started this week with high hopes. Now I'm pretty confused about what the Reds are doing.

I can't jump to any conclusions. I'll have to see how it shakes out, what scouting reports are, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if he's moving along, but he's done alright in the Mexican Winter League


TeamLge W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
MAZ LMP 0 2 3.73 8 6 0 0 0 31.1 31 17 13 0 11 12 1.08 .263

RedsManRick
12-06-2007, 10:36 AM
Color me confused that Wayne "Rule V" Krivsky thinks higher of a guy like Sergio Valenzuela than Carlos Guevara or Calvin Medlock.

Second that. Can only hope Guevara doesn't get selected.

BRM
12-06-2007, 10:36 AM
Second that. Can only hope Guevara doesn't get selected.

He went to Florida with the fifth pick.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:36 AM
Second that. Can only hope Guevara doesn't get selected.

The Marlins took him.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-06-2007, 10:37 AM
And the funny thing is that this Valenzuela isn't much bigger than either of the diminutive castoffs.

Seriously, the guy is 23 and does nothing well in A ball. I really am trying to find one decent thing about him. He doesn't miss bats. He doesn't have great control.

Is he Fernando's boy? Maybe Juan Castro's long lost cousin.

RedsManRick
12-06-2007, 10:39 AM
Jeez. I hope CTR can get some sort of an explanation. This is horrible. In the big picture, it probably doesn't matter, but seriously, what are they smoking?

At least we'll finally get to see Guevara get a shot. Given the Marlins roster, odds are he'll stick.

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 10:41 AM
The Reds take Juan Apodaca in the AAA phase - a catcher out of the Dodgers system.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-06-2007, 10:43 AM
If he is one of Juan Castro's long lost cousins that would make him one of Krivsky's long lost nephews since Castro is Krivsky's lovechild, right?

Seriously, what the hell is going on?

Time to get back to my bowl picks. Everything was going great until I prematurely jumped back into baseball. I'd rather just not know and resume roster analysis in 90 days.

RedsManRick
12-06-2007, 10:45 AM
I wonder if Wayne realizes these guys need to be on the 25 man roster. Picking guys who have never experienced success in A ball doesn't bode well for them.

My only thought is that both these guys have big injuries and will be DL'd the whole season.

BRM
12-06-2007, 10:46 AM
Thirty-six players picked; the Double-A phase has begun. Im going to keep my ears open for intersting names but frankly the biggest names I heard late in the Triple-A phase were guys like Luke Appert (former all-Big 10 player) and righty Ben Fritz, a part of the As "Moneyball" draft if I recall correctly, toward the end of the draft. The Double-A phase is passing rather uneventfully, in terms of names that I can recall. The Rangers took Francisco Cordova in the minor league phase, out of the Angels system, but I dont think hes the same guy the Pirates had in the late 90s. Teams are passing left and right; very uneventful Double-A phase, not many picks at all. Looking at single digits.

Danny Serafini
12-06-2007, 10:51 AM
Here are Apodaca's numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Juan-Apodaca.shtml

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-06-2007, 10:53 AM
RHP Sergio Valenzuela -- HT: 6'0" WT: 175 DOB: 11/15/84
2003 DSL1 6-2, 0.96 ERA, 65.2 IP, 34 H, 12 BB, 56 SO
Named pitcher of the year for DSL1 in 2003.
He was good at one time, maybe there was an injury of some sort and he is on his way back?

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 10:54 AM
Here are Apodaca's numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Juan-Apodaca.shtml

MIght not be a bad pickup. We are so thin at the catching position in our system. I'm guessing he helps down there.

lollipopcurve
12-06-2007, 10:56 AM
It's the Rule V, folks. These players are long. long, longshots. The Hamilton/Burton bonanza last year was absolutely unprecedented -- don't expect anything like that to happen again. And, shouldn't last year's success earn the guys doing the drafting the benefit of the doubt with this selection?

The kid is young. Despite recent poor performance, the Braves did have him up in high A for awhile last year, which constituted a level jump, I think. He pitched pretty well in the Mexican league this winter, where most of the players are older, with a couple of very nice starts. No home runs allowed in 30+ innings. Splits versus lefties look good.

I have to think the selection is based on scouting him this winter. Clearly the Braves thought enough of him to be using him primarily as a starter, and that's how he was being used in Mazatlan this winter, too. We'll see what Krivsky says about him....

BRM
12-06-2007, 11:03 AM
From Rotoworld:



Marlins selected RHP Carlos Guevara from the Reds with the fifth pick in the Rule 5 draft.

It's about time someone gambled on Guevara, as the Reds had absolutely no interest in using the screwball specialist. There's good reason to doubt his ability to pitch in the majors, but the Reds wouldn't even give him a chance to pitch in Triple-A. He had a 2.32 ERA and an 87/23 K/BB ratio in 62 innings at Double-A Chattanooga last season.

AmarilloRed
12-06-2007, 11:05 AM
There is probably so much negative reaction because we have lost both Guevara and Cantu to acquire Valenzeula. He is a longshot, but if he doesn't make the 25 roster this looks like a
very bad move by Krivsky.

mbgrayson
12-06-2007, 11:17 AM
From C. Trent:

The early line on Valenzuela -- three pitches, plus fastball, plus change and a slider.

"Winter ball pretty much finalized it for me," "J" Harrison said. "He caught my attention with some of the things he did with his delivery and his strength. He just looked like a guy who was underdeveloped and with some room for growth."

Harrison said he's seen Valenzuela listed at 6-0, 175 -- but said he's a solid 6-3 1/2 and 200 pounds.

mbgrayson
12-06-2007, 11:22 AM
There is probably so much negative reaction because we have lost both Guevara and Cantu to acquire Valenzeula. He is a longshot, but if he doesn't make the 25 roster this looks like a
very bad move by Krivsky.

You can't really say we lost BOTH of these two. We only had room to keep one or the other on the 40 man....not both.

AmarilloRed
12-06-2007, 01:04 PM
Reds acquire Valenzuela in Rule 5 Draft
Club plucks 23-year-old righty from Braves organization
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

Sergio Valenzuela was 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in 32 games in 2007. (Joy R. Absalon/MiLB.com)

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Despite all of the scouting and time evaluating players, selecting someone in the Rule 5 Draft is often a crapshoot.

The Reds were fortunate to score two productive players last year in Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton; both had nice 2007 seasons. In this year's Rule 5 selection, they're hoping for a similar outcome in right-handed pitcher Sergio Valenzuela.

By taking Valenzuela from the Braves organization on Thursday, the Reds had to look past the 23-year-old's numbers, because they weren't very good. He was 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in 32 games, including five starts, at high Class A Rome and Double-A Myrtle Beach.

"Winter ball pretty much finalized it for me," said J. Harrison, the Reds' director of pro scouting. "One of our good scouts out west got a chance to see him. I saw him in a trip over to Mexico as well. It was a bullpen-type deal and he caught my attention on some of the things he did with his delivery and his strength. He looked like a guy that was underdeveloped that had some room for growth."

Harrison later dispatched scout Rex De La Nuez to track Valenzuela as a starter in Mexican Winter League games. The Reds liked the pitcher's mid-90s fastball and above average changeup and think he has an average slider.

"We got a chance to do some homework on him," Harrison said. "He's still got some development left. He's a guy we think can compete, contribute and eventually evolve into a starter-type for us. That's an area we need to continue, to stockpile as many starters as we can."

The Reds paid $50,000 to select Valenzuela. He must remain on the club's 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the Braves for $25,000. If he makes Cincinnati's roster out of Spring Training, he'd likely slot into the bullpen as a long or middle reliever. But he is projected long-term as a starter.

Valenzuela is not related to Fernando Valenzuela, although he did grow up in the same region of Mexico as the former Dodgers pitcher.

"We saw a little bit cleaner delivery, but we hope he has the same type of makeup," Harrison said. "Some kids come along late, and we hope this is an example of that. We've heard nothing but good things. We like to treat it like stocks sometimes and hope you can catch them good when they're down in terms of his numbers."

Cincinnati also lost a player to the Rule 5 Draft in pitcher Carlos Guevara. The right-hander was picked by the Marlins and then traded to the Padres. Guevara was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 51 relief appearances last season with Double-A Chattanooga.

In the Triple-A phase, the Reds took catcher Juan Apodaca from the Dodgers and traded him to the Red Sox for cash considerations. The Reds also lost right-handed pitcher Jose Rojas to the A's organization. Rojas pitched at Class A Dayton and Sarasota last season.

Mark Sheldon is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

AmarilloRed
12-06-2007, 01:10 PM
You can't really say we lost BOTH of these two. We only had room to keep one or the other on the 40 man....not both.

We could have released another player on the 40 man roster instead of Cantu. There were future considerations at stake, however, so I imagine that is the reason why Cantu was released. We could have protected Guevara, but the decision was made to protect other players instead.

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 01:45 PM
The Reds also lost Jose Rojas in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 draft - was with Sarasota last year. He was 2-4 in his career over two years at Dayton and Sarasota, with a 3.97 ERA.

mlbfan30
12-06-2007, 01:50 PM
I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

dougdirt
12-06-2007, 01:59 PM
I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

Maybe the future considerations were 'if he is on the roster in 2008, you owe us another play from this list'? We don't know what those considerations were.

redsmetz
12-06-2007, 02:03 PM
I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

I think the "future considerations" with Cantu means he was going to be arbitration eligible and we didn't care to assume what we could have to pay to him in that process.

With regards to the catcher going to Boston - my guess is that Boston wanted him, we weren't planning on taking anyone ourselves and they asked us to get this guy for a prearranged amount in a trade. It's really no different than what we did with Hamilton last year. We reached agreement with the Cubs that they would take a player for us and agreed to a price. They didn't know at the time that it would be Hamilton. Probably the same thing happened here.

corkedbat
12-12-2007, 08:08 PM
I predict that Senor Valenzuela falls victim to a mysterious chronic hangnail-related malady that periodically subsides enough to allow Louisville rehab stints and ironically, just enough games on the 25-man roster to meet Rule V requirements.

HokieRed
12-12-2007, 08:42 PM
I don't know why anybody is worried about the Valenzuela pickup, which has to be thought about completely separately from the Guevara issue. Three things are going to happen with Valenzuela. One is not very likely: he'll be so good he sticks on the 25 man roster. One is a little more likely: he's really bad and we send him back to the Braves, paying the 50 grand. The third is most likely of all, in fact, so likely I suspect it's pretty well already understood by the Reds and Braves: the kid's promising, we work out a minor league deal, he pitches where he belongs this year, at about Chattanooga.

camisadelgolf
08-06-2010, 03:12 AM
The Reds take Juan Apodaca in the AAA phase - a catcher out of the Dodgers system.
Anyone remember this guy? He was just traded by the Red Sox (along with Argenis Reyes) to the Indians for future considerations.

Mario-Rijo
08-06-2010, 09:40 AM
Anyone remember this guy? He was just traded by the Red Sox (along with Argenis Reyes) to the Indians for future considerations.

No but I often wonder what happened to the SS Lizarraga (sp?).

redsmetz
08-06-2010, 09:58 AM
Anyone remember this guy? He was just traded by the Red Sox (along with Argenis Reyes) to the Indians for future considerations.

Apparently we turned around and sold him to the Bosox right away.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/26026-red-sox-trade-for-c-juan-apodaca/

You scared me. I was afraid I had misreported this. Phew!

camisadelgolf
08-06-2010, 10:21 AM
No but I often wonder what happened to the SS Lizarraga (sp?).
He was loaned to the Mexican League and is still playing in Mexico. He's doing quite terribly there.

Mario-Rijo
08-06-2010, 06:24 PM
He was loaned to the Mexican League and is still playing in Mexico. He's doing quite terribly there.

Thanks Cam.