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Mario-Rijo
12-02-2007, 01:36 AM
I don't have an account so I suppose this is ok to post. I colored in all Red's related bits and bolded some of the guys I like.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/265252.html


Early Rule 5 Preview

By Chris Kline
November 28, 2007

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Buckle your seatbelts. This year's Rule 5 draft will likely be more exciting than 2006, thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Included in the new CBA, which went into effect last October, was an alteration to the Rule 5, giving teams an extra year of protection to further aid the development process. Instead of clubs having three years (for players signed at age 19 or older) or four years (for players 18 and younger) to wait before adding players to the major league 40-man roster, they now have four and five years.

High school players drafted in 2003 and college players drafted in 2004 become eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time this year. International signees and all others signed before age 19 in the year 2003 also require protection.

While there likely won't be the Josh Hamilton bomb the Reds dropped on the Rule 5 world last season, more clubs will be active among a much deeper pool of players available—more than 800 names are up for grabs in the major league phase of the draft.

"Even with the new CBA last year there were a few nifty picks," said one front-office executive. "The Royals grabbing Joakim Soria, Reds nabbing Hamilton and Jared Burton . . . The Nationals taking Jesus Flores was creative. San Diego taking Kevin Cameron from the Twins and seeing him pitch late in the game in certain situations at Petco Park . . . The percentage of players sticking in the majors is not very good and the percentage shrinks on teams that are actually in contention. The draft still serves as a good barometer to make clubs correctly assess what they have in their own system and perhaps find another piece.

"Looking back on 2006, teams felt a little more secure in protecting their own because they had another full year to assess what they had in their own system."

Machinations Of The Draft

The Rule 5 draft is split into two segments: In the major league phase, clubs draft eligible players off Triple-A reserve lists. Players selected in the major league phase of the draft cost $50,000 each and must remain on the selecting team's big league roster for all of the 2008 season or be offered back to the player's original team for $25,000.

The minor league phase is split into two sections—the Triple-A phase and the Double-A phase. In the Triple-A phase, clubs draft players off Double-A reserve lists for $12,000 apiece; in the Double-A phase, clubs draft players off Class A reserve lists for $4,000 each. In neither case do players drafted have to be returned to their original team.

Roughly 400 players are eligible to be drafted in the minor league phase, and clubs had targeted several players. And just like the major league portion, expect teams to focus on trying to beef up their systems on the mound and behind the plate.

"It's a cheap and easy way to improve the depth of your farm system," a scout from an American League club said. "It's rare to get a position player (in the minor league phase) who becomes an impact player, but you'll see clubs trying to buy arms in bulk and hoping to find more depth at catcher."

While it is rare to strike gold in the minor league phase, the most recent success story is Giants infielder Eugenio Velez, who was selected from the Blue Jays in 2005 and has a chance to stick with the big league club in 2008.

Position players on the minor league side that were garnering interest early this season were catchers Korey Feiner (Twins), Morgan Clendenin (Orioles), Mario Mercedes (Cubs), and utilityman Jesus Soto (Royals).

But let's focus on the major league phase for now. Here are some players to keep an eye on, in order of their Rule 5 helium:

Randor Bierd, rhp, Tigers

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, Bierd was mediocre for his first two seasons in the States and then needed Tommy John surgery midway through 2005. After pitching at short-season Oneonta in 2006, Bierd took a major step this past season, jumping to Double-A Erie where he finished 3-2, 3.35 with 52 strikeouts in 45 innings. While Bierd has a swing-and-miss 90-93 mph sinking fastball, his solid-average slider also gets a lot of ground balls. And he has the makings of a third pitch with an average changeup.

Brian Barton, of, Indians

Ever the enigma, Barton went undrafted in 2004 after clubs were scared off by his aerospace engineering major at Miami. The Indians signed him for $100,000 and an additional $100,000 in college funds after a brief showing in the Cape Cod League and Barton has not looked back. A five-tool player who can play all three outfield spots, Barton has been hampered by a lingering knee injury since his breakout year in 2006 when he hit .322 with 19 homers and swiped 41 bags in 49 attempts. Even with the knee problem, Barton still turned in a .305/.402/.420 season in 2007, finishing the year in Triple-A. Quiet and leading through example through his 2006 season, some scouts expressed concerns about Barton's demeanor. "I loved him that first year in Double-A," one scout from a National League club said. "But this past year, it was almost like he'd earned this elite status and you saw him have this lackadaisical approach to the game that wasn't there before. Where he was playing with chips on both shoulders with something to prove initially, that part of his game was replaced by some sort of false bravado. He's really tough to get a handle on, but the tools are very real."

Garrett Guzman, of, Twins

Guzman missed the entire 2005 season after breaking his neck in a car accident just days before leaving for spring training that year. Now 25, the undersized lefthanded hitter profiles as arguably the best fourth outfielder candidate on the Rule 5 eligible list, drawing comparisons to Orlando Palmeiro. While Palmeiro was a bit better runner and defender, Guzman offers more power and offensive upside. Guzman, who batted .312/.359/.453 at Double-A New Britain in 2007, has solid gap power and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield, though he profiles best in left. "He probably doesn't run as well (as Palmeiro) but they're very similar players who can do a lot of things for you," said one National League scout.

Carlos Guevara, rhp, Reds

A 2003 seventh-round pick out of St. Mary's (Texas) University, Guevara repeated at Double-A Chattanooga despite an impressive season with 89 in 77 innings in 2006. Guevara was just as good if not better in 2007, averaging 12.63 K/9, and should be an easy Rule 5 decision for a club searching for middle relief. Guevara has one plus pitch, but it's the niche of that pitch being a screwball that helps spike his value, and explain why he's available, as some scouts dismiss him as a trick-pitch artist. The rest of Guevara's stuff is fringe-average, but he could be a solid addition for clubs in need of bullpen arms.

Samuel Deduno, rhp, Rockies

The Rockies signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, and he was the Rookie-level Pioneer League pitcher of the year two years later in his U.S. debut. Effectively wild, Deduno doesn't have overpowering stuff, but misses a lot of bats with average command of his 91-92 mph fastball and a 70 curveball, all on the 20-80 scouting scale. After leading the minors with 34 wild pitches in 2006, Deduno lowered that number to 13 this year. He can lose his release point very easily at times. Deduno was shut down in winter ball with elbow soreness, but several clubs were still expressing interest in the 24-year-old. He went 6-9, 5.53 with 8.6 K/9 in 2007.

The following players were receiving strong consideration for the Rule 5 draft in December:

Kyle Aselton, lhp, Twins
Overlooked in Twins system; arm strength with low 90s heat
Jesus Castillo, rhp, Dodgers
Fastball command to both sides; up to 94 mph in winter ball
Jamie D'Antona, 3b/c, Diamondbacks
Second straight year left unprotected, can play 1b, 3b or c
Jose de la Cruz, rhp, Mariners
Six-foot-6 righthander with power sinker and added a split
Diory Hernandez, ss, Braves
Plus runner with easy actions; uses the whole field
Fernando Hernandez, rhp, White Sox
Matt Guerrier-type righthander with plus moxie
Dusty Hughes, rhp, Royals
Strong Arizona Fall League effort boosts short guy's stock
Steven Jackson, rhp, Yankees
Strong, physical presence and has yet to reach his ceiling
Preston Larrison, rhp, Tigers
Very heavy lower half, but can be effective out of the pen
Shane Lindsay, rhp, Rockies
Health is a major issue, but showed power stuff in Hawaii
Yohan Pino, rhp, Twins
Great feel to pitch with a four fringe-average pitches
Tony Richie, c, Cubs
Solid catch-and-throw guy who hits a little bit
Kyle Schmidt, rhp, Orioles
Medical baggage, but bounced back with 145 whiffs in 131 IP
Leyson Septimo, lhp, Diamondbacks
Converted outfielder reportedly hit triple-digits this fall
Brett Smith, rhp, Yankees
Solid-average stuff, doesn't pitch with his fastball enough
Von Stertzbach, rhp, Angels
Profiles as a solid bullpen guy with above-average slider
Chris Stewart, c, Rangers
Solid defender with the big leagues already on his resume
Luis Valbuena, 2b, Mariners
Outstanding defender with interesting lefty bat
Marwin Vega, rhp, Mariners
Three average pitches with a lively 91-93 mph fastball
Matt Whitney, 1b, Indians
Blasting 32 homers might be enough to get Whitney noticed

*BaseClogger*
12-02-2007, 01:18 PM
good work thanks:thumbup:

Bierd sounds like a great fit for us...

icehole3
12-02-2007, 04:17 PM
any pitcher close to triple digits deserves a look, just saying

Mario-Rijo
12-02-2007, 04:46 PM
good work thanks:thumbup:

Bierd sounds like a great fit for us...

No problem. Yes I agree he's the one I like most, he and Diory the SS.

Mario-Rijo
12-02-2007, 04:47 PM
any pitcher close to triple digits deserves a look, just saying

Yeah that's what I thought, especially since he's a LH to boot.

camisadelgolf
12-02-2007, 05:42 PM
I'd say 'maybe' to these guys:

Kyle Aselton
Brian Barton
Randor Bierd
Samuel Deduno
Jesus De la Cruz
Diory Hernandez
Fernando Hernandez
Dusty Hughes
Yohan Pino
Kyle Schmidt
Leyson Septimo
Chris Stewart

. . . but the guy I really like is Jamie D'Antona. I think it'd be nice if the Reds grabbed D'Antona and traded Valentin.

AmarilloRed
12-02-2007, 06:46 PM
Anyway, A reliable source has informed MLBTR that the Rays are eyeing 25 year-old outfielder Brian Barton from the Indians for the first pick. Barton was once fairly highly regarded, but the Tribe chose not to protect him this year.

Of course with the Rule 5 the selection has to stay on the Major League roster all year. Barton may be polished enough to do so without causing harm, as he's posted solid numbers in Double A. Barton is a center fielder by trade. Acquiring him makes sense for Tampa Bay given their subtraction of Delmon Young and Jason Pridie.

Barton may be near MLB-ready but some have questioned his ceiling. Said Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein: "He's always been old for his level and many scouts see him as a mistake hitter and minor league performer as opposed to a player with long-term major league value."

Brian Barton would seem to be the first choice of the Rays, if this "reliable source" is correct. We will find out soon enough.

BearcatShane
12-02-2007, 10:04 PM
When is the Rule V draft?

AmarilloRed
12-02-2007, 10:15 PM
When is the Rule V draft?

December 10,2007

Jay Bruce
12-02-2007, 11:07 PM
I would really like to see Randor Bierd fall to us. His stats last year were very impressive:


Year Team Lg Age Org Level W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB%
2007 West Mich Midw 23 Det A 1 1 2.05 15 0 0 0 10 0 22.0 17 8 5 1 6 29 0 0 6.95 0.41 2.45 11.86 1.05 --
Erie East 23 Det AA 3 2 3.35 27 3 0 0 8 1 45.2 31 18 17 1 10 52 5 0 6.11 0.20 1.97 10.25 0.90 --

Basically, he struck people out, kept people off base, and kept the ball in the park. He seems like a perfect fit for the Reds.

*BaseClogger*
12-02-2007, 11:21 PM
I would really like to see Randor Bierd fall to us. His stats last year were very impressive:


Year Team Lg Age Org Level W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB%
2007 West Mich Midw 23 Det A 1 1 2.05 15 0 0 0 10 0 22.0 17 8 5 1 6 29 0 0 6.95 0.41 2.45 11.86 1.05 --
Erie East 23 Det AA 3 2 3.35 27 3 0 0 8 1 45.2 31 18 17 1 10 52 5 0 6.11 0.20 1.97 10.25 0.90 --

Basically, he struck people out, kept people off base, and kept the ball in the park. He seems like a perfect fit for the Reds.

wow... what does he not do well? Was he old for his level last year? The Tigers look foolish for letting this guy go...

Jay Bruce
12-02-2007, 11:29 PM
wow... what does he not do well? Was he old for his level last year? The Tigers look foolish for letting this guy go...

He was 23 last year, and had success at AA, so he wasn't too old. The Tigers may view him as an injury risk, seeing as he had tommy john surgery in 2005. That said, his peripherals are too impressive too ignore.

HokieRed
12-02-2007, 11:37 PM
On Bierd, somebody in the Tigers organization doesn't think his 2007 is for real. He made a huge improvement from a 6.57 ERA in 2006 in the New York Penn League. I'd bet the organization is thinking nobody will pick him up, that they can expose him without danger. He's not had much sustained success and is probably not a good bet to stick on a 25 man roster.

*BaseClogger*
12-02-2007, 11:47 PM
As far as I understand it, there is not very much downside to taking someone in the Rule V Draft. I he isn't good enough to stick on the 25 man roster you have to send him back, but that means he wasn't any good so we wouldn't want him anyways...

mth123
12-03-2007, 12:04 AM
December 10,2007

No. Its Thursday. That is Dec 6th.

corkedbat
12-03-2007, 01:28 AM
Adding SS Diory Hernandez from the Braves could:

a) add depth as a second INF reserve
b) make it easier for the the Reds to trade EdE or Gonzalez and plug Keppinger in their spot
c) make it easier to deal Freel
d) make Janish hit his way onto the roster as a reserve INF
e) allow WK go to the Twins with Castro and say, "OK, your turn!"

:D

AmarilloRed
12-03-2007, 01:30 AM
No. Its Thursday. That is Dec 6th.

My mistake. I thought I saw it listed as Dec.10 somewhere.

HokieRed
12-03-2007, 10:05 AM
These may not seem important, but I think they are pretty real considerations about "downside" in taking a rule 5 guy. Assuming in the Reds' case we're talking about a reliever, it means in Spring training you've got to give the guy enough innings to determine if he can stick on the 25 man roster. Those come away from other guys you are trying to evaluate and from guys trying to prepare for the season. Consider that on the Reds we are already going to be trying, presumably, to evaluate at least Coffey, Majewski, Bray, Coutlangus, Salmon, McBeth, Pelland, Roenicke, maybe Viola, Stanton, Gardner, maybe EZ, Shearn, and possibly 3 or 4 non-roster invitees plus the starters with a chance to make the roster--Cueto, Maloney. This is just a list of the guys you're trying out. Now you've got to add to that the ones you're trying to get ready. Also there are only so many meaningful innings in spring training ball--innings in which your Rule 5 guy faces a solid 3-6 major league hitters in a row. It doesn't tell you anything if he goes out and blows away some other team's Double A hopefuls. Remember, then, those meaningful innings are precious to your guys who are trying to make their case. What all this means is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a rule 5 reliever unless you are either 1. A club on which it doesn't matter much who the 12th pitcher is (hopefully this no longer describes the Reds) or 2. You are pretty sure going in that the guy is better than a lot of what you have and will stick--e.g. Burton last year.

*BaseClogger*
12-03-2007, 12:54 PM
These may not seem important, but I think they are pretty real considerations about "downside" in taking a rule 5 guy. Assuming in the Reds' case we're talking about a reliever, it means in Spring training you've got to give the guy enough innings to determine if he can stick on the 25 man roster. Those come away from other guys you are trying to evaluate and from guys trying to prepare for the season. Consider that on the Reds we are already going to be trying, presumably, to evaluate at least Coffey, Majewski, Bray, Coutlangus, Salmon, McBeth, Pelland, Roenicke, maybe Viola, Stanton, Gardner, maybe EZ, Shearn, and possibly 3 or 4 non-roster invitees plus the starters with a chance to make the roster--Cueto, Maloney. This is just a list of the guys you're trying out. Now you've got to add to that the ones you're trying to get ready. Also there are only so many meaningful innings in spring training ball--innings in which your Rule 5 guy faces a solid 3-6 major league hitters in a row. It doesn't tell you anything if he goes out and blows away some other team's Double A hopefuls. Remember, then, those meaningful innings are precious to your guys who are trying to make their case. What all this means is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a rule 5 reliever unless you are either 1. A club on which it doesn't matter much who the 12th pitcher is (hopefully this no longer describes the Reds) or 2. You are pretty sure going in that the guy is better than a lot of what you have and will stick--e.g. Burton last year.

good point. I would say Bierd sounds better than Mike Stanton though...

HokieRed
12-03-2007, 02:44 PM
Believe me, I hope Mike Stanton does not make the ballclub. But the $ owed him says he does.

redsmetz
12-03-2007, 03:30 PM
Believe me, I hope Mike Stanton does not make the ballclub. But the $ owed him says he does.

I'll say it again - Stanton will be on this club for this year unless we trade his contract. We will not want to allow someone else following a DFA to kick in his guarantee. If we trade the contract, it's someone else's issue.

Vada Pinson Fan
12-03-2007, 04:59 PM
Thanks for the post Mario. Great info!

It would be great if Stanton was NOT on the Reds in '08, but I agree, money says otherwise. Krivsky aquisitions seem to be, for the most part, a big hit or a big waste.
Here's hoping for a very fruitful winter meeting for the Reds and their GM!