Haren's value

[UPRedsFan]

Possible packages for Haren are being debated in the other forum with some being unwilling to trade Bruce for Haren and some limiting it to one of Votto/Hamilton and one of Bailey/Cueto.

Haren's #'s are impressive but looking at his game by game performance shows how dominant he is on a consistent basis. In 34starts, he had 27 quality starts (and only a couple were the 6 IP, 3 ER variety - lots of 1 run, 2 run games). With this offense, and pitching against NL lineups and Cordero closing, he's a 20 game winner. The Reds become the team to beat in the Central. An October rotation of Haren/Harang/Arroyo would be very difficult to match up with.

I would start low, and try other options but be very tempted to part with 3 of the big 5 if that's what it would take give the value Haren brings to this team.

[AmarilloRed]

It will require 2, not 3. Beane is greedy, but not unrealistic.

[*BaseClogger*]

I would be willing to part with Votto, Hamilton, and Maloney for him...

[hippie07]

Agree, but Harang>Haren, so I'd put it Harang, Haren, Arroyo.

The A's are asking for 2 top prospects, so they'd probably want Bruce, true, but I also read that they're looking for 3rd base, SS, and pitching prospects.

I'd gladly do: EdE, Janish, Bailey/Cueto, -- If they don't want Janish, then Stubbs or Wood for Haren.

I don't see them getting a better offer than that, especially for the type of position players they need.

[757690]

Jayson Stark is reporting that the A's actually want more for Haren than the Twins are asking for Santana. If that is the case, nevermind.

[ChatterRed]

My only minor league untouchable it Jay Bruce.

If these asking prices are correct for one pitcher........I may be content to just stand pat and take my chances with our prospects.

[AdamDunn]

Stubbs, Edwin Encarnacion (They want Chavez out if I remember correctly), Juan Francisco, Cueto, and Viola/Bray/Roenicke for Haren and Duchscherer.

Or Juan Francisco and Edwin Encarnacion for Harden.

[hippie07]

Stubbs, Edwin Encarnacion (They want Chavez out if I remember correctly), Juan Francisco, Cueto, and Viola/Bray/Roenicke for Haren and Duchscherer.

Or Juan Francisco and Edwin Encarnacion for Harden.

Exactly! They'd want EdE and although it would hurt, I would give him to them, although I think it will need to be more - remember we'd have Haren for 3 yrs. I'd give EdE & Bailey/Cueto & Violoa/Bray/Roenicke ...

Remember, it's a seller's market for pitching, so, we'll have to overpay ... the key is overpaying while not being stupid

[HokieRed]

What's Haren's contract status? What chance do we have of keeping him for the long term?

[757690]

The A's want two top of the line pitching prospects, plus a major league ready offensive power hitter for Haren. That means Bailey, Cueto, and Hamilton. Nothing less will get it done, which is why I say...nevermind.

[Hondo]

What about Ryan Freel straight up for Dan Haren?

Nice!

But really, Santana is available, so try to trade for him with your Surplus of Prospects. If there was even talk of a 4 year/ 46 Million Dollar deal for Cordero. Trade for Santana and give him Zito/Zambrano Money. Ink him LTC.

JR

[Ahhhorsepoo]

Why not Dunn, Freel, and Cueto?, or Maloney if you think dunn and freel are too much with cueto...

[BucksandReds]

Why not Dunn, Freel, and Cueto?, or Maloney if you think dunn and freel are too much with cueto...

I just have this strong feeling that a 5-6 year deal will be inked with Dunn and the Reds in the coming months.

[Bip Roberts]

Beane is an idiot so he will probably end up trading him for nothing

[ChatterRed]

Beane is an idiot so he will probably end up trading him for nothing


???

[Dracodave]

Beane is an idiot so he will probably end up trading him for nothing

Remember who he gave up for Haren? Yeah, me too. Mark "Burnt-out' Muder.

[Bip Roberts]

Remember who he gave up for Haren? Yeah, me too. Mark "Burnt-out' Muder.

for every good deal hes made hes also made a completely worthless one.

[ChatterRed]

for every good deal hes made hes also made a completely worthless one.


Please enlighten us with examples of these bad deals.

[ChatterRed]

Haren's stats:

2005 14-12, 217 IP, 212 hits, 53 BB's, 163 K's, 3.73 era, 1.22 WHIP, .255 BAA
2006 14-13, 223 IP, 224 hits, 45 BB's, 176 K's, 4.12 era, 1.21 WHIP, .258 BAA
2007 15-9, 222 IP, 214 hits, 55 BB's, 192 K's, 3.07 era, 1.21 WHIP, .247 BAA

A model of consistency if not improvement.

[Bip Roberts]

Please enlighten us with examples of these bad deals.

Milton Bradley for Andre Ethier
Hudson for 3 nobodies
Letting Zito walk for picks

just off the top of my head.

[UPRedsFan]

Haren's stats:

2005 14-12, 217 IP, 212 hits, 53 BB's, 163 K's, 3.73 era, 1.22 WHIP, .255 BAA
2006 14-13, 223 IP, 224 hits, 45 BB's, 176 K's, 4.12 era, 1.21 WHIP, .258 BAA
2007 15-9, 222 IP, 214 hits, 55 BB's, 192 K's, 3.07 era, 1.21 WHIP, .247 BAA

A model of consistency if not improvement.

The numbers that also jumped out at me were 34 starts and 27 quality starts. In 20 of those games he gave up 2 earned runs or less!

[AmarilloRed]

Beane has always traded his starting pitchers for 3 prospects. I expect he would want 2 top ranked prospects and a secondary third prospect for Haren. That would probably mean 2 out of the top 5 and someone like Maloney.

[hippie07]

Beane has always traded his starting pitchers for 3 prospects. I expect he would want 2 top ranked prospects and a secondary third prospect for Haren. That would probably mean 2 out of the top 5 and someone like Maloney.

EdE, Cueto, Maloney.... I'd do that for 3 years of Haren.

Maybe even EdE, Hamilton, Maloney OR Hamilton, Cueto, Maloney.

Point is ... Haren is good...

[AmarilloRed]

Haren won't be a whole lot cheaper in terms of prospects than Santana. One assistant GM said his club had put in a call about Haren but that Beane "wanted our whole organization" in return. Several scouts said they were under the impression the A's have a steep asking price for Haren, three to four top young players.

It seems I underestimated the asking price for Haren. Beane is going to want at least 3 and possibly 4 top young players. That would mean a 3-4 combination of young major leaguers and young prospects, if Beane doesn't scale back his asking price.

[Jay Bruce]

Haren won't be a whole lot cheaper in terms of prospects than Santana. One assistant GM said his club had put in a call about Haren but that Beane "wanted our whole organization" in return. Several scouts said they were under the impression the A's have a steep asking price for Haren, three to four top young players.

It seems I underestimated the asking price for Haren. Beane is going to want at least 3 and possibly 4 top young players. That would mean a 3-4 combination of young major leaguers and young prospects, if Beane doesn't scale back his asking price.

Whatever the Twins get for Santana should be the benchmark for what Oakland gets for Haren. Haren is not as good as Santana, but it is close. In the last 3 years, Santana has posted xFIPs of 3.35, 3.42 and 3.55, all incredibly good numbers. Over that same span, Haren has posted xFIPs of 3.81, 4.06 and 3.99, all very good. The thing is, Haren is signed for the next three years (assuming his 6.75 million option for 2010 is picked up) for a total of 16.25 million dollars, an astronomical bargain for a frontline starter in this market. On the otherhand, Santana will require a longterm deal in the 25 million a year range.

Whatever difference Santana has over Haren in ability (which isn't a lot), is more than made up by the contract situations.

[Jay Bruce]

Letting Zito walk for picks

just off the top of my head.

Zito has been living off his repuation for a number of years now, but is no more than an average pitcher now. In his last three years in Oakland, Zito had xFIP ERA's of 5.04, 4.61 and 5.46. These would be in line with a #3-5 starter. Beane was absolutely right not to give Zito a 7 year 126 million dollar contract, as Zito was grossly overpaid from the minute he signed the contract. Beane has made some questionable moves, but this wasn't one of them.

[Caveman Techie]

Zito has been living off his repuation for a number of years now, but is no more than an average pitcher now. In his last three years in Oakland, Zito had xFIP ERA's of 5.04, 4.61 and 5.46. These would be in line with a #3-5 starter. Beane was absolutely right not to give Zito a 7 year 126 million dollar contract, as Zito was grossly overpaid from the minute he signed the contract. Beane has made some questionable moves, but this wasn't one of them.

I took his criticism of letting Zito walk for just picks as a; he should have traded him the season before his free-agency and gotten something other than just compensation picks.

I don't think it was a slam against him not resigning him at a ridiculous rate.

[Jay Bruce]

I took his criticism of letting Zito walk for just picks as a; he should have traded him the season before his free-agency and gotten something other than just compensation picks.

I don't think it was a slam against him not resigning him at a ridiculous rate.

Beane generally knows what he's doing. Based on Zito's declining stats, increasing salary (7.9 million in his final year of arbitration), and having Boras as his agent, teams probably didn't offer the A's a very enticing package for him. There would be doubts that he would sign a long term deal before free agency hit, and if he did, it would be because the team overpaid.

There are many factors that could have led Zito to simply let Zito walk, and my guess wouild be that Beane was not offered a deal better than the two draft picks. Either way, this would not be a situation where I would criticize Beane.

[hippie07]

I wonder what the Marlins trade means for the A's... I read that if the Angels acquired Cabrera then the A's would go into full scale firesale (sounds silly but thats what one article said). Think they're still planning on trading Haren, Blanten, etc. now that the Angels aren't getting Cabrera?

[757690]

Beane generally knows what he's doing.

Which is why he has brought the A's all those Pennants and World Series Titles while he has run the club.

[Bip Roberts]

Hes Jim Bowden but with a book

[Jay Bruce]

Which is why he has brought the A's all those Pennants and World Series Titles while he has run the club.

OhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodO hmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOh migod.

Once you get to the playoffs, luck plays a large factor. The playoffs consist of numerous short series's. 5 or 7 games is really not a large enough sample size to determine who the best team is. Billy Beane has consistently put a contender in Oakland since 1999, on one of the lowest budgets in the majors. In order to do that he would need to know what he is doing.

[757690]

OhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodO hmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOhmigodOh migod.

Once you get to the playoffs, luck plays a large factor. The playoffs consist of numerous short series's. 5 or 7 games is really not a large enough sample size to determine who the best team is. Billy Beane has consistently put a contender in Oakland since 1999, on one of the lowest budgets in the majors. In order to do that he would need to know what he is doing.


Take a deep breath, relax, it was just a little humor. Yes, I would love it the biggest problem with the Reds is that they were contenders every year, but never went to the World Series.

However, after 10 years I would get frustrated. Luck can explain two, maybe three years of not winning in the playoffs, but 10 years? I would have hoped that my GM had figured out a way to take it up a notch in less than 10 years. That is what winning organizations do, they figure out how to improve every year.
Beane has yet to figure that out. He might next year, but he hasn't yet.

[ChatterRed]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63952

They say on ORG that Beane is asking for 2 top prospects for Haren.

That means Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto. If you include EE and Hamilton as top prospects, that gives us 6 to work with.

Bruce is untouchable, IMO. I'd trade Hamilton and either Bailey or Cueto for Haren. And I think that's a good deal for Oakland. If Hamilton were still in the minors, he'd be probably the #1 prospect in baseball.

[757690]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63952

They say on ORG that Beane is asking for 2 top prospects for Haren.

That means Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto. If you include EE and Hamilton as top prospects, that gives us 6 to work with.

Bruce is untouchable, IMO. I'd trade Hamilton and either Bailey or Cueto for Haren. And I think that's a good deal for Oakland. If Hamilton were still in the minors, he'd be probably the #1 prospect in baseball.

Asking the Yankees for 2 of the 3 between Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain, and asking the Red Sox for 2 of the 3 between Lester, Buchholz and Ellsbury, is not the same as asking for two top prospects for Haren.
The Yankees refused to give up both Kennedy and Hughes for Santana, and refused to even discuss Chamberlian.
The Red Sox refused to give up both Ellsbury and Lester for Santana and refused to even discuss Buchholz.

This tells me that A's want more for Haren, than the Twins are asking for Santana. Any offer from the Reds would have to start with Bruce and go from there.

Chambelain and Buchholz are ahead of Bailey, and Elisbury is miles ahead of Votto and Cueto. Hughes and Lester are miles ahead of them all, since they are major leaguers.

Bruse is the only Reds prospect that compares to what the A's are asking for from the Yankees and Red Sox.

[*BaseClogger*]

Take a deep breath, relax, it was just a little humor. Yes, I would love it the biggest problem with the Reds is that they were contenders every year, but never went to the World Series.

However, after 10 years I would get frustrated. Luck can explain two, maybe three years of not winning in the playoffs, but 10 years? I would have hoped that my GM had figured out a way to take it up a notch in less than 10 years. That is what winning organizations do, they figure out how to improve every year.
Beane has yet to figure that out. He might next year, but he hasn't yet.

I'll take the playoffs every year... It would be better than this...

[*BaseClogger*]

Hes Jim Bowden but with a book

thats f@@$%*#$@#ing insane...

[757690]

I'll take the playoffs every year... It would be better than this...

Me too, but after a few years, I would want at least to get to the World Series. Then after getting to the Series, I would want to win, just once, then after the Reds got to the series, I would want to win every year.

It's like my love life. I say that I would be happy just to be friends with a woman, then when we are good friends, after awhile, I want more, I want to date her. Then after we start dating for awhile, I want more, and so on, and so on.....