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View Full Version : Reds going for Dontrelle Willis?



Grounds_Crew
12-03-2007, 02:07 PM
CNNSI
The Reds may make a play for Marlins left-hander Dontrelle Willis. Cincinnati finally has decent prospects to trade -- starting with pitcher Homer Bailey and slugger Joey Votto. Josh Hamilton, last year's feel good story, also should have good value now.



Hmmm...whacha think?


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/12/03/monday.scoop/index.html

AmarilloRed
12-03-2007, 02:08 PM
The Reds may pursue Dontrelle Willis. I was thinking they might, the fit makes sense. A package with Josh Hamilton and one of the Reds' stud pitchers might be required though. Also keep in mind that Joe Frisaro said the Marlins plan to keep Willis at least until July.

There is some talk on mlbtraderumors.com about this. It would seem the Marlins are interested in Hamilton and Bailey OR Cueto, but they should not get this. I would offer Hamilton and Maloney, and see if they are serious about actually trading Willis before July. I might even seek to replace Hamilton with Griffey or Dunn. Willis was a good starting pitcher once, but he really has a lot to prove.

AccordinglyReds
12-03-2007, 02:11 PM
NO. Not Bailey and Votto. No way. Maybe Votto only, but that's as far as I would go.

kyjobu
12-03-2007, 02:12 PM
I would give up a package of Hamilton/Votto/Maloney for him, but I think they would want one of Bruce/Cueto/Bailey.

Maybe they would have interest in EdE since they are shopping Cabrera. In that case I would do EdE/Hamilton/Maloney for Willis/Mike Jacobs/Prospect.

mound_patrol
12-03-2007, 02:14 PM
Not interested. Move on past this idea. I think the real Dontrelle is the Dontrelle we've seen the past 2 years. Not worth the price.

Grounds_Crew
12-03-2007, 02:14 PM
The price is pretty high...based on the quote that I provided. However, I would love to add Dontrelle to our lineup.

SMcGavin
12-03-2007, 02:17 PM
I'd like to get Willis, but considering him as an ace is a mistake. Bailey + Votto is the package you go with to get an ace, and I would not do that deal for Willis. Perhaps one of them, not both.

BEETTLEBUG
12-03-2007, 02:17 PM
Make an offer if you don't like counter get out and walk.

hippie07
12-03-2007, 02:19 PM
I really hope WK doesn't do something stupid like Hamilton & Bailey/Cueto for Willis. I'm afraid he will though, maybe he feels he'd would lose out for Bedard, Haren, Blanton.... but in all honesty... EdE, Hamilton, Bailey should land one of those guys, which I would be much more comfortable w/ than Willis - who, is a good pitcher but is much more of a risk.

Would you do EdE, Hamilton, Maloney for Willis?? Personally, I'd try Hamilton & Maloney alone, but I'm pretty sure the fish won't go for it.

Grounds_Crew
12-03-2007, 02:24 PM
To be honest with you, I'm not too excited about losing Hamilton.

Blue
12-03-2007, 02:26 PM
I really hope WK doesn't do something stupid like Hamilton & Bailey/Cueto for Willis. I'm afraid he will though, maybe he feels he'd would lose out for Bedard, Haren, Blanton.... but in all honesty... EdE, Hamilton, Bailey should land one of those guys, which I would be much more comfortable w/ than Willis - who, is a good pitcher but is much more of a risk.

Would you do EdE, Hamilton, Maloney for Willis?? Personally, I'd try Hamilton & Maloney alone, but I'm pretty sure the fish won't go for it.

Wouldn't give them Hamilton, Bailey, Cueto, or Bruce.

AmarilloRed
12-03-2007, 02:26 PM
Willis's 2005: 34 starts, 22-10, 7 CG, 5 SHo, 236 1/3 IP, 213 hits, 79 runs, 69 er, 50 walks, 170 strikeouts, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .243 BAA

Willis's 2007: 34 starts, 10-15, 205 1/3 IP, 241 hits, 131 runs, 118 earned, 29 hr, 87 walks, 146 strikeouts, 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .294 BAA.

Dontrelle Willis simply is not the ace pitcher he was in 2005. and the Marlins are kidding themselves if they think they will still get the same return now that they would have in 2005. I would start with Maloney and Griffey or Dunn, and see if they are really serious about trading him before July. He is a #4/#5 right now, and the Marlins will simply have to accept that.

Will M
12-03-2007, 02:32 PM
Willis's 2005: 34 starts, 22-10, 7 CG, 5 SHo, 236 1/3 IP, 213 hits, 79 runs, 69 er, 50 walks, 170 strikeouts, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .243 BAA

Willis's 2007: 34 starts, 10-15, 205 1/3 IP, 241 hits, 131 runs, 118 earned, 29 hr, 87 walks, 146 strikeouts, 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .294 BAA.

Dontrelle Willis simply is not the ace pitcher he was in 2005. and the Marlins are kidding themselves if they think they will still get the same return now that they would have in 2005. I would start with Maloney and Griffey or Dunn, and see if they are really serious about trading him before July. He is a #4/#5 right now, and the Marlins will simply have to accept that.


I replied to this topic under the 'winter meetings thread'.

NO WAY we give up anything good for Willis.
His trade value is more like Freel & an A ball prospect NOT Bailey/Cueto/Hamilton/etc.
Nor would I trade Dunn for him.

kbrake
12-03-2007, 02:33 PM
Count me as another one that is afraid Wayne will make a stupid move to get Willis after losing out on Haren/Bedard

AmarilloRed
12-03-2007, 02:39 PM
We may lose Dunn anyway if we cannot extend him.

kbrake
12-03-2007, 02:43 PM
Would rather have draft picks than Willis.

hippie07
12-03-2007, 02:49 PM
Willis is a decent pitcher - he has been on the decline for the last 2 years - why? I haven't seen him pitch enough to know - lost velocity?, bad control?, injury?

His numbers in 06 were worse, but not bad - his numbers in 07 were bad. If the Reds believe he'll revert back to at least his 06 numbers, then I think he's worth Hamilton - if only because we're trading from an area of strength to get an area of weakness. Also, I don't think there's anyway Griff approves a trade to the fish.. he wants to compete for a title during his last years.

Another point .... why in the hades would we trade Bailey for Willis - If I had to guess I bet they both to project to have something like a 3 era in 2008 - the difference is that Willis has had MLB success in the past, but he is on the decline while Bailey is expected to only get better... In my mind Bailey straight up Willis would be a great deal for the fish, which makes it a bad deal for us....

Hamilton & Maloney to fish is about as far as I would go, and that's only if we lose out on Bedard, Haren, & Blanton ....

hippie07
12-03-2007, 02:49 PM
How much longer is Willis under team control?

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 02:55 PM
I think trading for Dontrelle Willis is a bad idea. I think the real Willis showed up last season. Unless you can pry him away for pittance and he is our 4th or 5th starter, I'm not really interested.

Grounds_Crew
12-03-2007, 02:56 PM
For the record, I'd love to have Bedard on the team!

kyjobu
12-03-2007, 03:13 PM
I replied to this topic under the 'winter meetings thread'.

NO WAY we give up anything good for Willis.
His trade value is more like Freel & an A ball prospect NOT Bailey/Cueto/Hamilton/etc.
Nor would I trade Dunn for him.

You're out of your mind if you think Freel and an A-level prospect have the same value of Willis. You've got to be kidding me.

REDblooded
12-03-2007, 03:19 PM
Willis is awful....... I'll pass.

Part of his effectiveness was his deceptive delivery. Players have caught on, and now he gets shelled. I'd be less than thrilled to see Willis in a Reds uni.

durl
12-03-2007, 03:20 PM
Personally, I'd rather keep Bailey than trade him for Willis. Bailey could be a very good pitcher for a number of years, but Willis' trend is pointing down right now.

Sure, Willis could turn things around, but stuff like this is sometimes a gut feeling and my gut tells me I'd rather take my chances with Homer.

hippie07
12-03-2007, 03:33 PM
Personally, I'd rather keep Bailey than trade him for Willis. Bailey could be a very good pitcher for a number of years, but Willis' trend is pointing down right now.

Sure, Willis could turn things around, but stuff like this is sometimes a gut feeling and my gut tells me I'd rather take my chances with Homer.

Hands down, the right answer!! Bailey is > than Willis all the way around. Willis is at best going to be a 2/3 while Homer has ace potential. However, we need pitching so I could live w/ Willis & Bailey on the staff.

As long as we don't have to give up much for Willis, I have no problem w/ WK pursuing him.

HokieRed
12-03-2007, 03:43 PM
I think we are right on the cusp of a stupid move, a panicky move in which we will trade from a position of self-created weakness. I hope WK is tough enough or smart enough to resist this. I think you just let Haren /Bedard/ Willis et. al. go if the asking price is too high, and anything involving Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and probably Johnny Cueto is too high.

Bigredfan#1
12-03-2007, 03:45 PM
Remember we signed a guy who was winning (MIlton) and Willis isn't even doing that. No way one earth I give up Bailey or Cueto for Willis. I might try Hamilton and a mid level prospect but not our big time prospects.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 03:49 PM
I would pass on Willis but would have interest in Scott Oleson for Hamilton.

Red Rover
12-03-2007, 03:53 PM
Any way to get Willis & Cabrera?

Like say EdE, Hopper, Cueto and Kepp.

757690
12-03-2007, 04:00 PM
I would pass on Willis but would have interest in Scott Oleson for Hamilton.


This is a joke, right? A potential franchise player for a guy with a 6 ERA?

OldRed1966
12-03-2007, 04:05 PM
This is a joke, right? A potential franchise player for a guy with a 6 ERA?


Not to mention the guy is a head case.

Bip Roberts
12-03-2007, 04:14 PM
I dont really like the idea of giving up any of our guys for Willis. I think all of our top guys are more valuable than 1 year of a guy whos had 2 bad years.

hippie07
12-03-2007, 04:28 PM
Any way to get Willis & Cabrera?

Like say EdE, Hopper, Cueto and Kepp.

This would be cool, but probably not wise for the Reds, because we'd have to give up the bulk of our prospects and only have whatever hope that Willis will provide to cure our pitching woes.

It would take AT LEAST: EdE and Cueto for Cabrera and it would take AT LEAST: Hamilton for Willis, IMO.

So, EdE, Cueto, Hamilton, Roenicke/Bray, and Maloney may get it done...

We'd really deplete our prospects and fix our RH bat problem and may or may not help our pitching problem (which is hands down our biggest problem). Although, if WK can pull it off - I'd be happy.

I think Willis can be a solid #3 which - along w/ a RH bat would definitely make us the team to beat in the Central.

Bip Roberts
12-03-2007, 04:31 PM
Willis has never really been great besides 05

Hondo
12-03-2007, 04:39 PM
If you can trade Ewin Encarncion, Johnny Cueto, and 2 other Mid Level Prospects for Miguel Cabrera. You do it. Then sign him to the Longest Contract you can.

JR

hippie07
12-03-2007, 04:48 PM
It depends how much faith we have in Bailey or Cueto... if Bailey progresses like we hope - he could be a solid #3 by midseason, so D-Train might be enough to get us over the hump.

The more I think about it .... the more I'm inclined to pull the trigger on a
Willis & Cabrera for EdE, Cueto, Hamilton and others...

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Willis
Belisle

Plus a line-up w/ Cabrera hitting cleanup would be incredible, IMO.

hippie07
12-03-2007, 05:03 PM
Any way to get Willis & Cabrera?

Like say EdE, Hopper, Cueto and Kepp.

Actually, looking at what the Angels are offering for Cabrera.... Keppinger & Cueto might just be equal - they're offering a catching prospect to though - they can gladly have Ross if they need him - Reds could sign someone like LoDuca to replace him.

So, in retrospect your offer is surprisingly legitimate:
Cueto, Kepp, & Ross = Cabrera
EdE, Freel, Bray = Willis

Will M
12-03-2007, 05:05 PM
is a butcher at 3B. Will move to 1B soon and if he doesn't get his weight under control will soon be Cecil Fielder #3 ( Prince is already on his way to be Cecil Fielder #2 ).

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:09 PM
This is a joke, right? A potential franchise player for a guy with a 6 ERA?

With a great arm who needs a change of scenery and who is cheap.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:10 PM
If you can trade Ewin Encarncion, Johnny Cueto, and 2 other Mid Level Prospects for Miguel Cabrera. You do it. Then sign him to the Longest Contract you can.

JR

And you will kick yourself when he is pushing 330 lbs in a few years.

757690
12-03-2007, 06:11 PM
With a great arm who needs a change of scenery and who is cheap.

If the Reds give up Hamilton, then he is very expensive. If he could be had for say a non 40 man roster minor leaguer, then he would be cheap.

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 06:16 PM
If you can trade Ewin Encarncion, Johnny Cueto, and 2 other Mid Level Prospects for Miguel Cabrera. You do it. Then sign him to the Longest Contract you can.

JR

I'd trade Votto, Keppinger, and either Bailey or Cueto for him. We wouldn't need Votto if we move Cabrera to 1B. I'd hate to give up EE but if he had to be part of the deal, so be it. Then I might offer Maloney instead of Cueto. The only reason I like this deal is because the Reds are too lefthanded and need more power from the right side. Cabrera has proven to be a consistent power hitter and also hits for average. That is the only reason I pursue this trade.

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 06:18 PM
With a great arm who needs a change of scenery and who is cheap.

I have to disagree. Willis is clearly on the decline. Change of scenery will help? You don't know that. And he won't be cheap for very much longer.

He's a #5 starter at best right now based on his last 2 seasons.

BucksandReds
12-03-2007, 06:18 PM
Couldn't the Reds offer a weight contingent contract extension for Cabrera? He is currently one of the top few hitters in baseball and with weight in control can be a decent fielder.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:20 PM
If the Reds give up Hamilton, then he is very expensive. If he could be had for say a non 40 man roster minor leaguer, then he would be cheap.

Check out Olsen's 2006 as a 22 year old rookie and then look at his minor league stats, if I knew how I would post them but they are good. I dont think Hamilton would be enough to pry Olsen away from the Marlins.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:21 PM
I have to disagree. Willis is clearly on the decline. Change of scenery will help? You don't know that. And he won't be cheap for very much longer.

He's a #5 starter at best right now based on his last 2 seasons.

I was talking about Scott Olsen not Willis.

mlbfan30
12-03-2007, 06:23 PM
The original trade was about Willis. Cabrera is not involved.
Willis is and always has been overly overhyped. He is not even close to being as good as most people generally think. He was just bad last year, way worse than Belisle (who many people want out of the rotation)
Willis has also pitched a total of 1000 innings in the past 5 years, starting at age 21.
He's due to make around 20 mil for the next 2 years.
His K/BB is 2.20 (pretty bad) and his HR/9 is 0.83 (not great)
He just isn't worth anything near Votto/Bailey/Hamilton and I have a feeling Krivsky might overpay just to make something happen which would be a horrible move.

757690
12-03-2007, 06:32 PM
Check out Olsen's 2006 as a 22 year old rookie and then look at his minor league stats, if I knew how I would post them but they are good. I dont think Hamilton would be enough to pry Olsen away from the Marlins.

Ty Howington, Pat Pacillo, Scott Scudder, Brett Tomko all had great minor league numbers.

Olsen was involved in a very messy and embarrasing DUI arrest last year, where he tried to fight with the officer and ran away on foot. After that, the Marlins tried to trade him and found no takers.

And before that, the Marlins offered him to the pitching starved Rays for Joey Gathright, basically a poor man's Norris Hopper. The Rays flatly rejected it.

That sums up Olsen's trade value. Less than Norris Hopper before his arrest. Much, much less than that afterwards.

There are dozens of pitchers in the majors with great arms. The key is finding the ones with a good head too. Olsen is not one of those.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:35 PM
Ty Howington, Pat Pacillo, Scott Scudder, Brett Tomko all had great minor league numbers.

Olsen was involved in a very messy and embarrasing DUI arrest last year, where he tried to fight with the officer and ran away on foot. After that, the Marlins tried to trade him and found no takers.

And before that, the Marlins offered him to the pitching starved Rays for Joey Gathright, basically a poor man's Norris Hopper. The Rays flatly rejected it.

That sums up Olsen's trade value. Less than Norris Hopper before his arrest. Much, much less than that afterwards.

There are dozens of pitchers in the majors with great arms. The key is finding the ones with a good head too. Olsen is not one of those.

Ryan Freel has also been involved in a DUI and Hamilton nearly killed himself with drugs. Young people make mistakes its just a fact of life. If the Reds could have traded Norris Hopper for an arm like Olsen and didnt then I question their FO.

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 06:36 PM
Check out Olsen's 2006 as a 22 year old rookie and then look at his minor league stats, if I knew how I would post them but they are good. I dont think Hamilton would be enough to pry Olsen away from the Marlins.


Olsen's stats aren't that great and are on the decline:

2005 20 IP, 20 hits, 3.98 era, 1.52 WHIP, .259 BAA
2006 180 IP, 160 hits, 4.04 era, 1.30 WHIP, .230 BAA, 12-10
2007 176 IP, 226 hits, 5.81 era, 1.76 WHIP, .315 BAA, 10-15 record

.315 BAA?????????? Say what?

Dontrelle Willis:
2003 160 IP, 148 hits, 3.30 era, 1.28 WHIP, .245 BAA, 14-6
2004 197 IP, 210 hits, 4.02 era, 1.38 WHIP, .273 BAA, 10-11
2005 236 IP, 213 hits, 2.63 era, 1.13 WHIP, .243 BAA, 22-10
2006 223 IP, 234 hits, 3.87 era, 1.42 WHIP, .274 BAA, 12-12
2007 205 IP, 241 hits, 5.17 era, 1.60 WHIP, .294 BAA, 10-15

Last year was bad, but I guess I thought 2006 was worse than it really was. Plus, he's playing on a bad team and you wonder how that impacts a starting pitcher. 68-54 career record with a career era of 3.78. Is he throwing his arm out? He turns 26 in January.

After seeing his stats, I might now be a little more interested in Willis. Definitely needs a physical.

Bip Roberts
12-03-2007, 06:37 PM
Id rather let Matt B. pitch

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:38 PM
Olsen's stats aren't that great and are on the decline:

2005 20 IP, 20 hits, 3.98 era, 1.52 WHIP, .259 BAA
2006 180 IP, 160 hits, 4.04 era, 1.30 WHIP, .230 BAA, 12-10
2007 176 IP, 226 hits, 5.81 era, 1.76 WHIP, .315 BAA, 10-15 record

.315 BAA?????????? Say what?

Dontrelle Willis:
2003 160 IP, 148 hits, 3.30 era, 1.28 WHIP, .245 BAA, 14-6
2004 197 IP, 210 hits, 4.02 era, 1.38 WHIP, .273 BAA, 10-11
2005 236 IP, 213 hits, 2.63 era, 1.13 WHIP, .243 BAA, 22-10
2006 223 IP, 234 hits, 3.87 era, 1.42 WHIP, .274 BAA, 12-12
2007 205 IP, 241 hits, 5.17 era, 1.60 WHIP, .294 BAA, 10-15

Last year was bad, but I guess I thought 2006 was worse than it really was. Plus, he's playing on a bad team and you wonder how that impacts a starting pitcher. 68-54 career record with a career era of 3.78. Is he throwing his arm out? He turns 26 in January.

After seeing his stats, I might now be a little more interested in Willis. Definitely needs a physical.

Check out Olsen's minor league stats, its not like the guy is 30, his is 23.

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 06:48 PM
Who cares about minor league stats when you have major league stats to go by. You really want a guy that is being hit at a .315 clip?

No thanks.

redsfanmia
12-03-2007, 06:52 PM
Who cares about minor league stats when you have major league stats to go by. You really want a guy that is being hit at a .315 clip?

No thanks.

A 23 year old who in the minors struck out more than 1 batter per inning? Yes I would take him in a heart beat.

Dracodave
12-03-2007, 06:52 PM
Who cares about minor league stats when you have major league stats to go by. You really want a guy that is being hit at a .315 clip?

No thanks.

For a really crappy defensive team? Plus he's 23 and has a ton more upside then Matty B..? Yes, take a flyer.

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 06:57 PM
Do they allow beer bottles on the mound? Just kidding.

There is probably a reason every team took a flyer on him.

Dracodave
12-03-2007, 07:00 PM
Do they allow beer bottles on the mound? Just kidding.

You can say the same thing about alot of players etc...

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 07:07 PM
You can say the same thing about alot of players etc...

Alot? Name a few hundred players then. :D

Bip Roberts
12-03-2007, 07:10 PM
Alot? Name a few hundred players then. :D

I can name 5 on the reds current roster :laugh:

757690
12-03-2007, 07:16 PM
For a really crappy defensive team? Plus he's 23 and has a ton more upside then Matty B..? Yes, take a flyer.

No one is saying Olsen is worthless, just not worth a top prospect. "Taking a flyer" in my book means get him without giving up much, so I think we are on the same page.

Dracodave
12-03-2007, 07:36 PM
No one is saying Olsen is worthless, just not worth a top prospect. "Taking a flyer" in my book means get him without giving up much, so I think we are on the same page.


I compare him to Matty B with upside. No top prospect is worth the baggage of another prospect..Im glad we're on the same page there.

HalMorrisRules
12-03-2007, 07:39 PM
6:16 p.m., Jayson Stark
The Reds have asked the Marlins about Dontrelle Willis. But a deal between those two teams is unlikely. The Marlins are still placing a high price tag on Willis, so they no doubt would ask the Reds for their best young pitcher, Homer Bailey, plus one more player. And the Reds have little interest in moving Bailey. One baseball man who spoke to the Reds described their interest as "tire kicking."

ChatterRed
12-03-2007, 07:43 PM
6:16 p.m., Jayson Stark
The Reds have asked the Marlins about Dontrelle Willis. But a deal between those two teams is unlikely. The Marlins are still placing a high price tag on Willis, so they no doubt would ask the Reds for their best young pitcher, Homer Bailey, plus one more player. And the Reds have little interest in moving Bailey. One baseball man who spoke to the Reds described their interest as "tire kicking."


I'm actually relieved.

mlbfan30
12-03-2007, 07:43 PM
Great news, and I hope that's the end of that news. Willis would be a horrible move.