Cabrera and Willis to Tigers

[membengal]

And, it is simply a rumor, but juicy enough that it is worth a second look:

Per Ken Rosenthal:


The Marlins and Tigers are engaged in preliminary talks about a blockbuster that would send Cabrera and left-hander Dontrelle Willis to Detroit for a package of young players, according to major-league sources.

Outfielder Cameron Maybin and left-hander Andrew Miller likely are among the Marlins' targets. The Tigers already feature two veteran left-handed starters, Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson, possibly making Miller available in a deal for Willis.

Gracious.

[RedEye]

Good god. Cabrera and Willis?

[JaxRed]

What a great trade that would be for Marlins if they could pull that off.

[RedEye]

Miller and Maybin?

[Joseph]

I'd like to see this one. :)

[MartyFan]

Willis would be a monster in that stadium...looks like the Tigers want to play again, they've been pretty active in the offseason, haven't they?

[membengal]

Sorry for no linky, here it is:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7525396

If you are going to deal prospects, get something. It would be a fun deal for both teams. I like it as a concept, at any rate...

[jojo]

I think Willis would get destroyed in the AL.

[M2]

What a great trade that would be for Marlins if they could pull that off.

It would certainly help in that Cabrera and Willis will be gone before their window to win something re-opens.

That said, Willis is only three years older than Miller. Miller would do very well if he could put up five years like Willis already has.

Cabrera's only four years older than Maybin. He's .313/.382/.542, 138 HR, 523 RBI for his career already. As dynamite an all-around player as Maybin may turn out to be, he's not going to be within a country mile of those types of numbers in four years. He may not even be ready for an everyday job in the majors until 2009 or 2010.

So Detroit would be making out pretty well on that deal too. In fact, it strikes me as a good trade where both teams come away happy.

[flyer85]

Plus Detroit could make Cabrera a 1b/DH.

[corkedbat]

Plus Detroit could make Cabrera a 1b/DH.


I'd love to see that go through just to remove the Willis temptaion from WK

[JaxRed]

I'd love to see that go through just to remove the Willis temptation from WK

Good point

[Johnny Footstool]

I'd hope the Marlins were getting more than Maybin and Miller. As good as those two could be, they're not worth Willis and Cabrera straight up.

[Joseph]

I'd imagine it to be more as well considering what they have reportedly been asking for Cabrera alone, who knows though.

[dougdirt]

Miller and Maybin have very high upsides, but they are both pretty far from their potential, although Miller is much better suited to perform in the majors right now than Maybin is.

[Benihana]

That would be a whopper of a trade. Wow

[OnBaseMachine]

Breaking news on ESPN: Peter Gammons is reporting this deal is done, pending physicals. Maybin/Miller plus 4 prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

He says it should be announced tonight.

[Puffy]

Breaking news on ESPN: Peter Gammons is reporting this deal is done, pending physicals. Maybin/Miller plus 4 prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

He says it should be announced tonight.

3 of the 4 are pitching prospects, the other is a catcher.

Florida is assembling one gaggle of young pitchers - wow. And Detroit, with Cabrera added to Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Granderson plus Willis added to Bonderman, Verlander and the Gambler. Wow.

[M2]

Breaking news on ESPN: Peter Gammons is reporting this deal is done, pending physicals. Maybin/Miller plus 4 prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

He says it should be announced tonight.

Groovy.

And it could be the deal that ignites the entire trade market.

[M2]

3 of the 4 are pitching prospects, the other is a catcher

Got to figure the catcher is Jordan Newton. Hopefully Duane Below is one of the pitchers. That kid's got an incredible name, somebody ought to name a band after him.

[dougdirt]

3 of the 4 are pitching prospects, the other is a catcher.

Florida is assembling one gaggle of young pitchers - wow. And Detroit, with Cabrera added to Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Granderson plus Willis added to Bonderman, Verlander and the Gambler. Wow.

Any word on who the other players are?

The Tigers made out like bandits in this deal. Miguel Cabrera is going to be incredible in the AL where he could play DH. Willis could have success with his funky delivery against a new league for a while.
Cameron Maybin is ALL projection at this point outside of his defense and speed (which go hand in hand at this point).

Andrew Miller has pretty good stuff but he needs lots of refining, but could have some good success in that huge ballpark with his ground ball tendencies.

I would be interested to see who else is involved in that deal.... but still looks like a steal of Miguel Cabrera by the Tigers.

[lollipopcurve]

So what do the Angels do now? Seems to me the Reds may be able to move EdE in behind Cabs as the next-best RH 3B bat, maybe get the Angels and Giants competing for him. Angels don't have a pitcher I like as much as Lincecum or Cain though.....except Lackey, but they're not trading Lackey.

[OnBaseMachine]

The catcher is Mike Rabelo.

[M2]

So what do the Angels do now? Seems to me the Reds may be able to move EdE in behind Cabs as the next-best RH 3B bat, maybe get the Angels and Giants competing for him. Angels don't have a pitcher I like as much as Lincecum or Cain though.....except Lackey, but they're not trading Lackey.

EdE and some minor stuff for Joe Saunders, Reggie Willits and Jeff Mathis? All of those guys are secondary players in LA right now. Not sure how I'd feel about it myself, just tossing it out there.

[M2]

The catcher is Mike Rabelo.

He's got a career .263/.332/.346 stat line in the minors and he turns 28 next month. So I don't think the word "prospect" applies to this guy.

[Mario-Rijo]

EdE and some minor stuff for Joe Saunders, Reggie Willits and Jeff Mathis? All of those guys are secondary players in LA right now. Not sure how I'd feel about it myself, just tossing it out there.

Willits and Mathis I like, Saunders somehow makes me think of Claussen/Sowers. Arredondo however I wouldn't mind getting.

[RedsManRick]

Ummm... according to Peter Gammons, this puppy just went final. Holy crap.

The Tigers have won the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes. Detroit will get Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for six players -- Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and three minor league prospects.

The Twins really need to punt on Santana now. Between Detroit and Cleveland, they don't have a prayer in 2008.

If you're the Angels, now what? Tejada? Ouch.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[Aronchis]

This entire deal rests on Willis's shoulder............

[Raisor]

The AL Central is becoming the new AL East!

[mth123]

EdE and some minor stuff for Joe Saunders, Reggie Willits and Jeff Mathis? All of those guys are secondary player. The as in LA right now. Not sure how I'd feel about it myself, just tossing out there.

I'd do that.

I'm guessing that the Angels end-up with Santana. The Yankees are only offering Hughes and junk, the Red Sox a little better with Lester, Crisp, and Masterson. The Angels with Kendrick, Weaver and Willits blow those both away.

Willits is about 1000 times better than Melky and for the money as good as Coco. Kendrick is the best bat on the table and Weaver may be a cut below Hughes, but he's ok and the Twins have pitching. Willits and Kendrick would allow them to contend in 08 without Santana. The Twins would have a top of the order in front of Young, Morneau, Maeur and Cuddyer. They'd score some runs and with Liriano, Weaver, Baker, Slowey and say Bonser, Blackburn, Perkins or Swarzak would still be a decent rotation with at least 1 arm to deal (Bonser?). The pen is still strong.

[Matt700wlw]

Beware...the Detroit Tigers!

[M2]

Willits and Mathis I like, Saunders somehow makes me think of Claussen/Sowers. Arredondo however I wouldn't mind getting.

Arredondo's a reliever struggling in the minors. No thanks, at least not for a starting 3B.

I'm on the fence about Saunders myself. The key would be the team would need to be fairly sure he's ready to hold down a rotation slot in respectable fashion.

[Mario-Rijo]

Beware...the Detroit Tigers!

If we get Bedard beware the Red's. (especially if we fix that defense) :thumbup:

[Krusty]

Heck of a deal for both teams. Do you think the Tigers got the Yankees and Red Sox attention? And the six prospects the Marlins got will give them a chance to formulate another possible World Series run three years from now.

And if you're the Angels, does Orioles Miguel Tejeda become your number 1 priority?

[Krusty]

Just out of curiosity.....would you have traded Bruce, Bailey and four other prospects for Cabrera and Willis?

[mth123]

Just out of curiosity.....would you have traded Bruce, Bailey and four other prospects for Cabrera and Willis?

No. I'm not a fan of Dontrelle at this point and he really isn't worth Bruce or Bailey and to the Reds Cabrera isn't worth the other and 4 other guys unless it includes some guys I'm trying to dump like Stanton and Castro .

[Benihana]

I mean, WOW. This has got to be the biggest trade of the decade. Two superstar franchise players for two superstar franchise prospects and then some. The only trade that was close to this big was the Marlins/Dodgers deal from eight or nine years back.

I mean just, wow.

[M2]

This deal also bodes well for the Reds.

Basically the Tigers have set the market as one premier prospect and stuff for one established vet.

[Krusty]

So would you package Bruce in a deal for Oakland's Haren?

[Benihana]

This deal also bodes well for the Reds.

Basically the Tigers have set the market as one premier prospect and stuff for one established vet.

I don't know about that.

I think this deal could take Danny Haren off the block. Beane was going to sell the farm if the Angels got Cabrera. Now they didn't, so what happens next?

[dougdirt]

Just out of curiosity.....would you have traded Bruce, Bailey and four other prospects for Cabrera and Willis?

Good God no. Bruce and Bailey >>>> Maybin and Miller by a whole lot.

[OnBaseMachine]

So would you package Bruce in a deal for Oakland's Haren?

No. Bruce is untouchable IMO.

[dougdirt]

I mean, WOW. This has got to be the biggest trade of the decade. Two superstar franchise players for two superstar franchise prospects and then some. The only trade that was close to this big was the Marlins/Dodgers deal from eight or nine years back.

I mean just, wow.

I just don't buy Dontrelle Willis as any type of star franchise player, much less superstar franchise player.

[PuffyPig]

This deal also bodes well for the Reds.

Basically the Tigers have set the market as one premier prospect and stuff for one established vet.


I think the deal, if you could break it down, was 2 primo prospects for Cabrera, plus some stuff. Willis came for stuff.

I think the marlins could have gotten more separately, but obviously that's not what they felt.

It ultimately depends on how good the 3 other propsects are.

[Aronchis]

Detroit may get shelled badly in this deal if Willis continues to falter.

I don't think Haren is on the block unless somebody gives a rediculous price.

Ditto for Bedard. Everybody and their mother wants Jay Bruce and we all know why.

[deltachi8]

So would you package Bruce in a deal for Oakland's Haren?

Yep. I'd like to win a division this decade...

[mth123]

This deal also bodes well for the Reds.

Basically the Tigers have set the market as one premier prospect and stuff for one established vet.

It may make Dunn the top bat on the market should the Reds put him in play. Maybe the Reds should let people come to them with bids for a change.

[M2]

Good God no. Bruce and Bailey >>>> Maybin and Miller by a whole lot.

Agreed, mostly based on Bruce. I'd probably take Miller over Bailey based on him being a big lefty with a power slider.

The main thing is the Reds can now shut down a lot of kooky proposals.


I think the deal, if you could break it down, was 2 primo prospects for Cabrera, plus some stuff. Willis came for stuff.

That's another way of looking at it, but that still breaks well for the Reds in pursuit of pitching. If that's all Willis is worth then don't go asking for a Cabrera return for guys like Dan Haren (whom I like plenty, but a little perspective is in order).

[PuffyPig]

Agreed, mostly based on Bruce. I'd probably take Miller over Bailey based on him being a big lefty with a power slider.

The main thing is the Reds can now shut down a lot of kooky proposals.



That's another way of looking at it, but that still breaks well for the Reds in pursuit of pitching. If that's all Willis is worth then don't go asking for a Cabrera return for guys like Dan Haren (whom I like plenty, but a little perspective is in order).

I think Haren is undervalued on this board.

When you trade for Haren you get 3 years, Bedard 2 years, Santana 1 year.

Now, if you have an unlimited payroll, th eeyars may not mkke as much difference to you when you know you can sign him long term.

But for most etams, I would say that Haren is worth more to the Reds than Bedard, and Bedard is worth more to the Reds than Santana.

In other words, I would give up more for Haren than Bedard, if I were the Reds.

And I think Willis is hugely overvalued on this board. I wouldn't give up any of our Top 4 to get him.

[MrCinatit]

Wow - nice grab by the Tigers.
Just before the trade with Washington went through, weren't there rumors that Kearns and Lopez were going to Florida for Willis and Cabrera?

[RedEye]

Too early to remove the "Rumor" part of this thread title?

[OnBaseMachine]

In addition to Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo, the Marlins will get three right-handers in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade: Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop.

[M2]

I think Haren is undervalued on this board.

When you trade for Haren you get 3 years, Bedard 2 years, Santana 1 year.

Now, if you have an unlimited payroll, th eeyars may not mkke as much difference to you when you know you can sign him long term.

But for most etams, I would say that Haren is worth more to the Reds than Bedard, and Bedard is worth more to the Reds than Santana.

In other words, I would give up more for Haren than Bedard, if I were the Reds.

And I think Willis is hugely overvalued on this board. I wouldn't give up any of our Top 4 to get him.

I don't think anyone on this board was much talking about giving up one of the top four to get Willis. I think you're right to note Willis was probably had for the extras.

As for Haren having more value due to him being locked up longer, I'd agree with you except it's not much of an issue to most of the teams hunting for pitchers. In general, most of the buyers out there would probably rather spend some cash than trade away more talent.

The exceptions are the Reds and possibly the D-Backs (if they're buying). IMO, the Rockies ought to be after an arm, but they're likely complacent at the moment. So Haren's probably not as valuable as he would be (for the reasons you listed) because the teams that would value him more highly aren't shopping.

[jojo]

I wonder what the Tigers will get in return when they flip Willis?

[ramp101]

in case ya'll were wondering

I'm extremely pleased

[dougdirt]

in case ya'll were wondering

I'm extremely pleased

Are you serious?

I would love to hear why, because I think the Marlins got absolutely hosed in this deal. Talk me out of it.

[Aronchis]

in case ya'll were wondering

I'm extremely pleased

You should be. You gutted the Tigers farm system.

The Tigers have ways of making bad mistakes like they did in the 80's which tend so set them back for awhile.

[mth123]

In addition to Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo, the Marlins will get three right-handers in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade: Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop.

Since the end of the season the Tigers have dealt their 2007 pre-season #1 (Maybin), #2 (Miller), #4 (Jurjens), #6 (De La Cruz), #7 (Gorkys Hernandez) #8 (Trahern) #18 (Rabelo), #22 (Badenhop).
They also returned #17 (rule 5 guy Edward Campusano who didn't stay active long enough to use up his rule 5 status) to the Cubs. #21 (Jeff Frazier) was traded to Seattle last spring.

[jojo]

Since the end of the season the Tigers have dealt their 2007 pre-season #1 (Maybin), #2 (Miller), #4 (Jurjens), #6 (De La Cruz), #7 (Gorkys Hernandez) #8 (Trahern) #18 (Rabelo), #22 (Badenhop).
They also returned #17 (rule 5 guy Edward Campusano who didn't stay active long enough to use up his rule 5 status) to the Cubs. #21 (Jeff Frazier) was traded to Seattle last spring.

Jeff Frazier isn't exactly proof of a deep system....

I'm still wondering if Willis was mostly, "if you want Miggy you HAVE to take Willis too"....

[M2]

I'm still wondering if Willis was mostly, "if you want Miggy you HAVE to take Willis too"....

The Tigers like Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson. Dontrelle Willis probably looks like Lefty Grove as far as they're concerned. Plus, for Miller, Maybin and detritus why wouldn't you want him throw in with Cabrera?

[edabbs44]

Just out of curiosity.....would you have traded Bruce, Bailey and four other prospects for Cabrera and Willis?

Prospects mean more to a team who doesn't spend with the big boys (Cincy) than they do to a team who does (Detroit). Bruce and Bailey are the future to teams like Cincy...they are chips to Detroit.

More risk for the smaller guys b/c if they flame out then they get no value for them. Detroit just trades them for established guys like Cabrera who probably won't flame out.

So, would I trade those 2 for Cabrera? Depends. If Cincy is gonna start drafting the BPA every year like Detroit and spend like crazy, then I would definitely think about it. If not, then no way.

[Dom Heffner]

It's scary to think that Miguel Cabrera is only 24 years old and a superstar.

I would have traded Jay Bruce for him.

[Highlifeman21]

Just out of curiosity.....would you have traded Bruce, Bailey and four other prospects for Cabrera and Willis?

I wouldn't trade any of Bruce, Bailey or Cueto for Willis. Votto would be the best they'd get.

While I'd love to have Cabrera, last time I checked he doesn't pitch. He'd certainly help the lineup, but we need to find ways to prevent the other team from scoring rather than figuring out ways to drastically increase our offensive production.

[Mario-Rijo]

Here's the rest of the package.



8:44 p.m., from Peter Gammons
• Here are the three pitching prospects the Tigers are sending to the Marlins in the Cabrera-Willis deal: right-handers Eulogio De la Cruz (3.62 ERA in the minors with a blazing fastball), Dallas Trahern (13-6 between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo) and Burke Badenhop (12-6 between Lakeland and Erie).

[fearofpopvol1]

If this is all it took to get those 2 players, I gotta agree with M2, this should bode well for the Reds. The only possible downfall is that other teams decide to offer more because there is 1 less pitcher on the market.

[RedlegJake]

The Marlins are becoming everyone' major league development tool. Trade em 4 or 5 prospects for a couple finished products and return in a couple years when those prospects are polished big leaguers to make another deal.

[blumj]

And, once again, the LA teams keep holding all their cards.

[Raisor]

The Marlins are becoming everyone' major league development tool. Trade em 4 or 5 prospects for a couple finished products and return in a couple years when those prospects are polished big leaguers to make another deal.


In return the Marlins win the World Series every few years. Seems like a fair tradeoff.

[Caveat Emperor]

And, once again, the LA teams keep holding all their cards.

Watch the AL start to really spin now.

Unless everyone wants to be watching a Detroit-Boston ALCS, there's going to have to be some movement.

Immense pressure on the Bronx Boys to do something now, and Anaheim has to be pressing as well.

[RedlegJake]

In return the Marlins win the World Series every few years. Seems like a fair tradeoff.

I don't think so anymore. Unless they get a new stadium deal or a new owner I think this is an indeterminate cycle for them.

[jojo]

The Tigers like Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson. Dontrelle Willis probably looks like Lefty Grove as far as they're concerned. Plus, for Miller, Maybin and detritus why wouldn't you want him throw in with Cabrera?

Rogers and Robertson are both better than Willis.

Basically the Tigers gained 4-5 wins by getting Cabrera (depending upon whether he plays 3b or Guillen moves to 3b and Cabrera learns 1b) and essentially decided they'd pay about $9M for their fifth starter which very well may be a downgrade from Miller in '08.

My money is still on the Tigers flipping Willis to one of the teams who have made getting a pitcher a top priority. Willis will get eaten alive in the AL.

This trade has to make the "win now" crowd positively giddy from a philosophical standpoint.

[M2]

Rogers and Robertson are both better than Willis.

I beg to differ. I'm a fan of taking the long view. Rogers' career had barely started when he was Willis' age. Along the way he's had a few clunkers too. Robertson survives and that's about the best you can say of him. Willis allows fewer baserunners, less power, has a better K rate and chews up innings. At least that's the way it shakes out if you don't act as if his 2007 season exists in a bubble.

If he's carrying an injury then that would change things, but, as far as we know, he isn't. He's a pitcher who had a bad season, at age 25. The Reds' top two pitchers were struggling to break into the majors at that age. Erik Bedard, supposedly one of the targets of the Reds' affection, was a rookie at age 25. The majors are full of pitchers whose careers had barely started at Willis' age and his career is supposedly over? Poppycock.

[jojo]

I beg to differ. I'm a fan of taking the long view. Rogers' career had barely started when he was Willis' age. Along the way he's had a few clunkers too. Robertson survives and that's about the best you can say of him. Willis allows fewer baserunners, less power, has a better K rate and chews up innings. At least that's the way it shakes out if you don't act as if his 2007 season exists in a bubble.

If he's carrying an injury then that would change things, but, as far as we know, he isn't. He's a pitcher who had a bad season, at age 25. The Reds' top two pitchers were struggling to break into the majors at that age. Erik Bedard, supposedly one of the targets of the Reds' affection, was a rookie at age 25. The majors are full of pitchers whose careers had barely started at Willis' age and his career is supposedly over? Poppycock.

First, poppycock is a bad word on the ORG (or so I've been told). :cool:

Second, I'm also a fan of taking the long view and haven't put Willis' 2007 in a bubble. Robertson and Willis have roughly similar peripherals for their careers. Willis has done it in a significantly weaker league. Willis would take a big ding if he had pitched his career in the AL.

Could Willis eat innings? Sure. But he's one of the more overrated pitchers in the majors and speaking of age, he's reached one where he'll actually get paid a lot for his reputation. Perhaps in the NL he might look a little sparkly from time to time but in the AL, he's just a back of the rotation arm.

[M2]

First, poppycock is a bad word on the ORG (or so I've been told). :cool:

Second, I'm also a fan of taking the long view and haven't put Willis' 2007 in a bubble. Robertson and Willis have roughly similar peripherals for their careers. Willis has done it in a significantly weaker league. Willis would take a big ding if he had pitched his career in the AL.

Could Willis eat innings? Sure. But he's one of the more overrated pitchers in the majors and speaking of age, he's reached one where he'll actually get paid a lot for his reputation. Perhaps in the NL he might look a little sparkly from time to time but in the AL, he's just a back of the rotation arm.

Comerica's been a pitcher's park too.

Willis has a .51 advantage in K/9. He has a 110 ERA+ compared to 97 for Robertson. He's got a career 0.83 HR/9 compared to 1.28 for Robertson. They're close on baserunners allowed, but Willis has a BABIP 14 points higher than Robertson. Willis is also four years younger, heading into his prime while Robertson may very well be headed out of his.

Frankly, Willis has had a better career than Jeremy Bonderman too, over the exact same amount of time (aided by Bonderman having rocks for brains). You say back of the rotation, I say Dontrelle tames the BBs and becomes the #2 guy for the Tigers next year.

[ramp101]

You should be. You gutted the Tigers farm system.

The Tigers have ways of making bad mistakes like they did in the 80's which tend so set them back for awhile.

Well I don't think this is a bad move by the Tigers what so ever, I am just pretty pleased with our return.

Cam Maybin is an absolute phenom, and the potential 1-2-3 of him Hanley and Hermida makes me beyond gitty.

And it pains me to say it but Willis has been terrible over the past year and a half. I love Miguel Cabrera but we can't afford him. Maybe this year we could, but if you get a chance at Maybin and Miller, I think you need to do it.

Obviously in a perfect world, Cabs would be a lifetime Marlin, but I know thats not how things work.

We'll see if Willis can handle the AL. I hope he can, I fear he cannot. Cabs should continue being a monster though

...and it also helps that I'm quite relieved we didn't trade Cabs for that crap Angels package

[jojo]

Comerica's been a pitcher's park too.

Willis has a .51 advantage in K/9. He has a 110 ERA+ compared to 97 for Robertson. He's got a career 0.83 HR/9 compared to 1.28 for Robertson. They're close on baserunners allowed, but Willis has a BABIP 14 points higher than Robertson. Willis is also four years younger, heading into his prime while Robertson may very well be headed out of his.

Frankly, Willis has had a better career than Jeremy Bonderman too, over the exact same amount of time (aided by Bonderman having rocks for brains). You say back of the rotation, I say Dontrelle tames the BBs and becomes the #2 guy for the Tigers next year.

Detroit has played as a neutral to slight hitters environment over the last three seasons according the BBR's park factors but frankly that's not nearly as significant as the league effect which you're ignoring. Factor in league and Willis doesn't have an advantage over Robertson. Asking a starter to move from the NL to the AL and improve is like asking heat to move from cold to hot.

[M2]

Detroit has played as a neutral to slight hitters environment over the last three seasons according the BBR's park factors but frankly that's not nearly as significant as the league effect which you're ignoring. Factor in league and Willis doesn't have an advantage over Robertson. Asking a starter to move from the NL to the AL and improve is like asking heat to move from cold to hot.

You're overblowing it by a large amount. The AL has a DH. That's about the main difference. The bottom half of AL offenses are pretty forgettable.

Honestly, if you want to find an overpaid pitcher to be offended by in Detroit, look no farther than Bonderman. He's had one good year as opposed to four for Willis and he's due to make $33M over the next three seasons. Willis is going to have to pitch well to earn his filthy lucre ($10M+).

BBR's got the following pitching factors for Comerica over the past five seasons - 102, 99, 98, 96, 95

[harangatang]

Wow - nice grab by the Tigers.
Just before the trade with Washington went through, weren't there rumors that Kearns and Lopez were going to Florida for Willis and Cabrera?Yep there sure was, it came from an ESPN message board.

[jojo]

You're overblowing it by a large amount. The AL has a DH. That's about the main difference. The bottom half of AL offenses are pretty forgettable.

Honestly, if you want to find an overpaid pitcher to be offended by in Detroit, look no farther than Bonderman. He's had one good year as opposed to four for Willis and he's due to make $33M over the next three seasons. Willis is going to have to pitch well to earn his filthy lucre ($10M+).

BBR's got the following pitching factors for Comerica over the past five seasons - 102, 99, 98, 96, 95

I'm not over blowing anything but rather being conservative when I talk about the effect the league change might have on Willis. The latest numbers I've seen look like this: the talent difference between the leagues equates to about .3 runs and the DH adds another .5 runs when regressing the leagues to the mean. The only influence that is greater on a pitcher than the league switch is switching him between the rotation and the pen (and it's not really that much greater of an effect than the league switch). Basically if two pitchers have identical stats while playing in neutral parks and one starts in the NL and one starts in the AL, the AL pitcher is actually a significantly better pitcher (roughly .8 runs/g better).

BTW, BBR's lists Comerica's multi-year park factor for pitching as 101.

I'd take Bonderman over Willis any day of the week with the difference in their salaries being well worth paying.

[jojo]

Yep there sure was, it came from an ESPN message board.

:D

[NJReds]

Will the Marlins have a $10M payroll next year? I guess so, until they dump Kevin Gregg and his huge $2.5M contract.

[KronoRed]

Will the Marlins have a $10M payroll next year? I guess so, until they dump Kevin Gregg and his huge $2.5M contract.

I bet they still win 70+ games.

[NJReds]

I bet they still win 70+ games.

In front of about 70 fans.

[jojo]

Will the Marlins have a $10M payroll next year? I guess so, until they dump Kevin Gregg and his huge $2.5M contract.

I propose a new rule. A team's revenue sharing check can not exceed their payroll amount...

[KronoRed]

In front of about 70 fans.

Thus a perfect excuse to keep payroll low.

[dougdirt]

I bet they still win 70+ games.

I bet they don't (unless they make more transactions)

[Benihana]

My biggest fear is now the Reds overpay the Tigers in order to obtain Dontrelle Willis.

[dougdirt]

My biggest fear is now the Reds overpay the Tigers in order to obtain Dontrelle Willis.

My offer would be either Carlos Fisher or Sam Lecure. Nothing more.

[Benihana]

My offer would be either Carlos Fisher or Sam Lecure. Nothing more.

I would offer Stubbs and Wood or Maloney, but not much more than that. The Tigers might actually have interest in that kind of deal, as it would replenish their completely barren farm system.

No way do I give up a Hamilton, Bailey, or Cueto though at this point, and I'm really hoping Wayne doesn't either.

[dougdirt]

I would offer Stubbs and Wood or Maloney, but not much more than that. The Tigers might actually have interest in that kind of deal, as it would replenish their completely barren farm system.

No way do I give up a Hamilton, Bailey, or Cueto though at this point, and I'm really hoping Wayne doesn't either.

Stubbs and Wood seems like an awful lot of talent to give up for a guy you are hoping rebounds in a big way who has had a decline across the board for 2 straight years....

[Benihana]

Stubbs and Wood seems like an awful lot of talent to give up for a guy you are hoping rebounds in a big way who has had a decline across the board for 2 straight years....

decline yes, but he would still be the Reds #3 or #4 pitcher this year

Do I want Willis? No- that's my point.
But would I take him for our #6 and #10 prospect? Yes.

[RedEye]

The plot thickens:

http://www.metsblog.com/2007/12/05/buzz-willis-offered-to-mets-with-pudge/

Looks like the Tigers may want to flip Willis to the Mets.

[Matt700wlw]

Hmmmmm....

[RedEye]

Wonder if they could flip him to the Reds instead? Only problem is that they really don't need anything now...

[dougdirt]

Wonder if they could flip him to the Reds instead? Only problem is that they really don't need anything now...

I'm not so sold we need Willis unless we are willing to risk 200 innings of 5.30 ERA baseball.....

[RedEye]

I'm not so sold we need Willis unless we are willing to risk 200 innings of 5.30 ERA baseball.....

Me either. But I have to imagine Wayne is in on these talks if they are going on. That is, he's at least in the back row of the crowd, standing on his tip-toes to see over someone's shoulder...

[RedEye]

Well, the rumor about the Willis spin-off was true, but the deal won't be happening.

Okay, the way I phrased that just made me think about a bad Todd Bridges sitcom that could have happened in the mid 1980s... but then didn't.

http://blog.mlive.com/tigersinsider/2007/12/dontrelle_to_the_mets_no_thats.html

[dougdirt]

decline yes, but he would still be the Reds #3 or #4 pitcher this year

Do I want Willis? No- that's my point.
But would I take him for our #6 and #10 prospect? Yes.

Im sorry, but last year he would have been the Reds #5 pitcher.... barely, and odds are its only because Livingston was hurt.

[westofyou]

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/335616.html


790 The Ticket general manager Howard Davis, whose station acquired Marlins rights, said the trade of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis ''doesn't give us any concern,'' cracking the Marlins ``weren't that popular with Cabrera and Dontrelle.''

[Benihana]

Im sorry, but last year he would have been the Reds #5 pitcher.... barely, and odds are its only because Livingston was hurt.

But Homer Bailey's a #3, right?

[Aronchis]

But Homer Bailey's a #3, right?

He may be next year. He won't throw 200 innings but kids like Bailey's development come in leaps and bounds, not steady progression.

A breakout 2008 followed by a disappointing 2009 wouldn't surprise me a bit.

[Benihana]

He may be next year. He won't throw 200 innings but kids like Bailey's development come in leaps and bounds, not steady progression.

A breakout 2008 followed by a disappointing 2009 wouldn't surprise me a bit.

I would be very surprised if he pitched like a true #3 next year (170 IP, ERA <4.30) Pleasantly surprised, of course, but surprised nonetheless.

Look at Felix Hernandez, who had a sparkling debut in 2005 with a 2.67 ERA in twice as many IP as Homer had this year. In his first full season the following year, he had a 4.52 ERA. If Homer had a 2008 like Felix's 2006, I'd be more than satisfied.

[jojo]

I would be very surprised if he pitched like a true #3 next year (170 IP, ERA <4.30) Pleasantly surprised, of course, but surprised nonetheless.

Look at Felix Hernandez, who had a sparkling debut in 2005 with a 2.67 ERA in twice as many IP as Homer had this year. In his first full season the following year, he had a 4.52 ERA. If Homer had a 2008 like Felix's 2006, I'd be more than satisfied.

Well ya because Felix was pretty dominant and pitched much better than his ERA suggests... He's not a good comp for the point you're trying to make I think....

[OnBaseMachine]

Cabrera set to ink Tigers' biggest pact: $153.3 million

By Enrique Rojas
ESPNdeportes.com

KISSIMMEE, Florida -- Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers reached a preliminary agreement Saturday on an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension, a source close to Cabrera told ESPNdeportes.com on condition of anonymity.

The All-Star third baseman will undergo a physical on Monday to complete the deal, the source said.

The contract is the richest in the Tigers' history. Magglio Ordonez had the previous record when he signed with Detroit for $75 million and five years in 2004.

"Miguel just signed a big contract," said the source. "The contract will be completed when Miguel takes a physical on Monday."

Cabrera, 24, was eligible for arbitration in 2009 and could become a free agent after the season ended. He will earn $11.3 million in 2008, and then an average of $19 million per year through 2016.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3307289

[WMR]

Damn..........

that buys a lot of donuts. They better hope he stays in shape.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Damn..........

that buys a lot of donuts. They better hope he stays in shape.

What was my first thought as well. Mo Vaughn came to mind actually.

Hopefully that never becomes an issue though, because he's a great offensive talent.

[harangatang]

Cabrera is only 24...wow I knew he was young but he's been around for a long time.

[Buckeye33]

Damn..........

that buys a lot of donuts. They better hope he stays in shape.

Well, to some it wasn't enough donuts. This from rotoworld.com:


A source told ESPN Deportes that the Tigers and Miguel Tejada have agreed to an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension through 2016.
It's possible, but it'd also hardly be the first time ESPN Deportes botched a reported contract. If this is true, Cabrera sold himself way too cheaply. To give up his last year of arbitration and seven years of free agency for just $19 million per year would be a terrible move on his part, or at least the MLBPA would have to feel that way.

How sick is the money in pro sports when you supposedly are about to make 19 million dollars a year for 8 years to play baseball and it is considered a terrible move????!!!

:eek::eek::eek:

[OnBaseMachine]

Cabrera is only 24...wow I knew he was young but he's been around for a long time.

By the end of this season he's going to have 1000 career hits and 170+ career homeruns by the age of 25. If he stays healthy he's going to put up some scary numbers in his career. To make it more impressive, he's put up those numbers in a huge ballpark and the park he's playing in now is more of the same.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Well, to some it wasn't enough donuts. This from rotoworld.com:


A source told ESPN Deportes that the Tigers and Miguel Tejada have agreed to an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension through 2016.
It's possible, but it'd also hardly be the first time ESPN Deportes botched a reported contract. If this is true, Cabrera sold himself way too cheaply. To give up his last year of arbitration and seven years of free agency for just $19 million per year would be a terrible move on his part, or at least the MLBPA would have to feel that way.

How sick is the money in pro sports when you supposedly are about to make 19 million dollars a year for 8 years to play baseball and it is considered a terrible move????!!!

:eek::eek::eek:

"Speculation" is that he would have gotten nearer 200M in free agency. I'd be happy with the 153, but what do I know:)

[Joseph]

Well, to some it wasn't enough donuts. This from rotoworld.com:


A source told ESPN Deportes that the Tigers and Miguel Tejada have agreed to an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension through 2016.
It's possible, but it'd also hardly be the first time ESPN Deportes botched a reported contract. If this is true, Cabrera sold himself way too cheaply. To give up his last year of arbitration and seven years of free agency for just $19 million per year would be a terrible move on his part, or at least the MLBPA would have to feel that way.

How sick is the money in pro sports when you supposedly are about to make 19 million dollars a year for 8 years to play baseball and it is considered a terrible move????!!!

:eek::eek::eek:

Cabrera maybe? :)

[Jpup]

He looks to be in the best shape of his career. I expect huge numbers from him this season.