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dougdirt
12-04-2007, 06:40 PM
John Sickels runs a website, www.minorleagueball.com and he is doing a Top 20 run down for every team and a Top 35-40 for each team for his Prospect Handbook that he puts out every year. Today he is writing the Reds portion of the book and tomorrow will release the Top 20 guys, but he chmed in on the site with this to say about the Reds system:

Working on the Reds farm system today.

Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

Tomorrow the list comes up hopefully, but thought this would be something nice to post over here.

Joseph
12-04-2007, 06:51 PM
Well even if its nothing more than hype and fury, it at least should create a buzz that could lead to help for the big league club via trade, assuming WK can use the hype to our benefit.

HBP
12-04-2007, 09:55 PM
That's awesome to read. Especially considering how bad 2003-2005 was.

HokieRed
12-04-2007, 11:41 PM
Dan O'Brien deserves a whole lot more credit than he has ever gotten from Cincy fans.

Blue
12-04-2007, 11:48 PM
That differs greatly from his perception of the Reds system last offseason.

Aronchis
12-04-2007, 11:48 PM
Most of the Reds hope after the "big four" is Wood getting back on track, Stubbs and Watson developing out and 1 out of Fisher/Lecure gang blowing up this year.

The first Buckley draft looks weak. The 2nd came in with more gusto so maybe we get some naughty behavior from it.

M2
12-05-2007, 03:18 AM
Dan O'Brien deserves a whole lot more credit than he has ever gotten from Cincy fans.

Of the Reds top 10 prospects (per BA), only four are DanO acquisitions. Of those four, only two (Bruce and Bailey) came via the draft. So from two of the deepest drafts we've seen over the past decade, only two players still make the Reds top 10.

There may be some sleepers from those drafts who emerge. Travis Wood could get himself back on the prospect map with a good year. Perhaps some other international signees from that period will join Cueto, Francisco and Viola in making their mark in the minors.

So DanO did manage to rubber stamp two successful (at least in terms of generating high market value) upper first round picks during his two years with the club. That doesn't begin to undo the massive bumbling at the major league and minor league developmental levels.

I'd say Wayne Krivsky deserves a ton of credit for coming in and quickly getting the developmental system in a state where prospects are now advancing rather than flaming out.

HokieRed
12-05-2007, 10:46 AM
Bailey and Bruce are two of the top ten prospects in baseball; Bruce currently is rated number one. Cueto, if I'm not mistaken, was signed during O'Brien's tenure. Wood is easily the most promising left-handed starter in the system. Those are really high impact guys, the guys who become core players on good teams or who you can start talking about when you go out to try to make trades for people like Bedard, Haren etc. I'm actually fairly positive about Krivsky as GM, but nobody Krivsky has drafted has yet distinguished himself like O'Brien's best draftees.

NorrisHopper30
12-05-2007, 10:53 AM
Where does O'Brien work now?

camisadelgolf
12-05-2007, 11:10 AM
Where does O'Brien work now?

He's Special Assistant to G.M./Director of Baseball Operations for the Milwaukee Brewers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_O'Brien_(baseball)
http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/team/front_office.jsp?c_id=mil

IslandRed
12-05-2007, 11:30 AM
I'd say Wayne Krivsky deserves a ton of credit for coming in and quickly getting the developmental system in a state where prospects are now advancing rather than flaming out.

Absolutely. We've talked about it before, but we used to root for the Reds to draft the most polished college players possible, on the presumption that nothing good was going to happen to them in the Reds' minor-league system so we'd better minimize the amount of time they had to spend there. Now there's a general sense of competence in player development. Combined with the better drafting in rounds 2+, the depth has increased enormously.


Well even if its nothing more than hype and fury, it at least should create a buzz that could lead to help for the big league club via trade, assuming WK can use the hype to our benefit.

Another absolutely. There's a halo around guys from top-rated systems. And it's easier to toss out some chips when you've got a pretty big stack.

M2
12-05-2007, 01:06 PM
Bailey and Bruce are two of the top ten prospects in baseball; Bruce currently is rated number one. Cueto, if I'm not mistaken, was signed during O'Brien's tenure. Wood is easily the most promising left-handed starter in the system. Those are really high impact guys, the guys who become core players on good teams or who you can start talking about when you go out to try to make trades for people like Bedard, Haren etc. I'm actually fairly positive about Krivsky as GM, but nobody Krivsky has drafted has yet distinguished himself like O'Brien's best draftees.

Bruce and Bailey were high first round picks. They're supposed to big deals. Credit to DanO & Co. for delivering on that.

I like Wood, but his prospect status is currently in limbo.

Of course no one Krivsky's drafted has done as well as the lead dogs from 2004-5 yet, they haven't had the time to do it. In two or three years we'll see how Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, etc. look.

Meanwhile, Bailey and Bruce's draft mates have mostly fallen by the wayside. It should be noted that Bailey, Cueto and Votto were struggling while the DanO regime was still in place. Another year like 2005 and all three of them would have blinked off the radar.

So it's nice that DanO, over the course of two years, may have acquired one, two, maybe three kids who might someday help the Reds, but that's hardly a sufficient job or worthy of any major thanks.

TRF
12-05-2007, 01:14 PM
I'm not saying I want DanO back or in charge of development. But he did get the picks right as opposed to JimBO who had to punt on Kazmir for Gruler and got nothing for drafting Sowers. So I at least give him that much credit. Also he did well to pluck Cueto as an international signing.

*BaseClogger*
12-05-2007, 04:26 PM
John Sickels runs a website, www.minorleagueball.com and he is doing a Top 20 run down for every team and a Top 35-40 for each team for his Prospect Handbook that he puts out every year. Today he is writing the Reds portion of the book and tomorrow will release the Top 20 guys, but he chmed in on the site with this to say about the Reds system:

Working on the Reds farm system today.

Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

Tomorrow the list comes up hopefully, but thought this would be something nice to post over here.

that makes me feel excited on the inside...

Matt700wlw
12-05-2007, 04:28 PM
With this in mind...and this guy in indeed correct...is trading a chunk of it in order to get a front line starter, to WIN NOW for the big league club, going to set the organization back that much?

That is the question the Reds have to answer...

gedred69
12-05-2007, 08:38 PM
Bailey and Bruce are two of the top ten prospects in baseball; Bruce currently is rated number one. Cueto, if I'm not mistaken, was signed during O'Brien's tenure. Wood is easily the most promising left-handed starter in the system. Those are really high impact guys, the guys who become core players on good teams or who you can start talking about when you go out to try to make trades for people like Bedard, Haren etc. I'm actually fairly positive about Krivsky as GM, but nobody Krivsky has drafted has yet distinguished himself like O'Brien's best draftees.

When asked why he stumbled so in High A (at Potomac), after great seasons at Billings and Dayton, Joey Votto said the O'Brien mandate that Minor league hitters take the 1st pitch, messed him up. If that is true, it may have well cost the Reds having an MLB-ready rookie bat, starting opening day at 1st base in "07.

HokieRed
12-06-2007, 12:49 AM
Votto played his High-A Ball at Sarasota; guys struggling at the plate will often look for one reason or another; the idea of getting guys to be a little more disciplined at the plate is not inherently a bad one; it's possible that training actually made Votto a more selective and thus better hitter later on; and O'Brien also put in the notorious pitch counts, which may have had something to do with a turn in this organization away from some of the heavy injuries to good pitching prospects of the past.

edabbs44
12-06-2007, 09:50 AM
Bruce and Bailey were high first round picks. They're supposed to big deals. Credit to DanO & Co. for delivering on that.

Bruce was taken 12th, Mesoraco 15th. Homer was taken 7th, Stubbs 8th.


I like Wood, but his prospect status is currently in limbo.

Agreed...it would be nice for him to take a leap in '08.


Of course no one Krivsky's drafted has done as well as the lead dogs from 2004-5 yet, they haven't had the time to do it. In two or three years we'll see how Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, etc. look.

See below.


Meanwhile, Bailey and Bruce's draft mates have mostly fallen by the wayside. It should be noted that Bailey, Cueto and Votto were struggling while the DanO regime was still in place. Another year like 2005 and all three of them would have blinked off the radar.

Bailey was one year out of HS in 2005 and in his first year of pro ball. Cueto was 19 years old in '05 and in his first year in rookie/A ball. We fault them for having rough 2005s, yet we are going to give college guys like Stubbs and Frazier 2-3 more years? Espcially Stubbs, where 2007 was his 2005 except he was 22 instead of 19? Let's be fair here.


So it's nice that DanO, over the course of two years, may have acquired one, two, maybe three kids who might someday help the Reds, but that's hardly a sufficient job or worthy of any major thanks.

That's extremely unfair. The Reds have 4 top prospects and 3 were acquired under Dan O'Brien. The kind of success O'Brien has had in the draft is the kind of success smaller teams need. Was it luck? Luck is definitely a part of it, as these guys have stayed relatively healthy throughout their short careers. But we can't dismiss what O'Brien did in those drafts. Imagine what the future would look like if they took Wade Townsend (#8), Neil Walker (#11)or Bill Bray (#13) over Homer (#7) or Brandon Snyder (#13) or CJ Henry (#17) over Bruce (#12).