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sammonator
12-06-2007, 11:45 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

sammonator
12-06-2007, 11:50 AM
Bailey for Rios maybe?

Homer Bailey
12-06-2007, 11:51 AM
Why would we trade away one strength in our biggest weakness to overload our outfield even more?

Unless there is another pending move....

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 11:52 AM
Elliott also said the Reds are interested in Alex Rios. If the Giants are pondering sending Tim Lincecum to the Jays for him, I imagine the Reds would have to counter with Homer Bailey. Bailey, however, is less proven than Lincecum.

I'm a big fan of Rios, if we truly are going after him does this mean we are unloading on Griffey, Hamilton, or Dunn? Rios has a TON of upside and is only 24 or 25 I believe.


I'd rather see us get pitching, but if we somehow go Bailey for Rios then trade Dunn/Griff/ or Hamilton for Bedard or another pitcher then I would be even more happy with this move.

The only way a move like Bailey for Rios would happen is if WK plans on dealing Hammy or another outfielder for a SP.

sammonator
12-06-2007, 11:52 AM
How about Hamilton and Votto?

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 11:56 AM
One other interesting thing

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player_career.jsp?player_id=425567

Rios is 6'5, could he possibly go to first base?

Send Bailey + spec to Toronto for Rios
Hamilton, Votto, etc for Bedard.

Move Rios, Griff, or Dunn to first.

Anyone know if Rios has played first base before or how good his outfield defense/arm is?

sammonator
12-06-2007, 12:00 PM
I would have to think if we traded Bailey for Rios that Bruce would have to be included for Bedard. Bailey, Bruce for Bedard, Rios?

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 12:02 PM
I would have to think if we traded Bailey for Rios that Bruce would have to be included for Bedard. Bailey, Bruce for Bedard, Rios?

I'll take it. You think it'd look something like this:

Rios for Bailey + spect (no clue what the Blue Jays would need, but if they would accept Lincecum for Rios i'd think we'd need to add one average spect)

Bedard for Bruce, Votto, ??

Jay Bruce
12-06-2007, 12:02 PM
One other interesting thing

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player_career.jsp?player_id=425567

Rios is 6'5, could he possibly go to first base?

Send Bailey + spec to Toronto for Rios
Hamilton, Votto, etc for Bedard.

Move Rios, Griff, or Dunn to first.

Anyone know if Rios has played first base before or how good his outfield defense/arm is?

If not for the existance of Vernon Wells, Rios would be playing CF in Toronto. As is, he is a very good right fielder. First base should not be an option for him.

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 12:03 PM
If not for the existance of Vernon Wells, Rios would be playing CF in Toronto. As is, he is a very good right fielder. First base should not be an option for him.

Thanks, Toronto must be solid at drafting outfielders, Vernon Wells is spectacular as well as Rios.

How is Rios' arm compared to Wells'?

sammonator
12-06-2007, 12:04 PM
I'll take it. You think it'd look something like this:

Rios for Bailey + spect (no clue what the Blue Jays would need, but if they would accept Lincecum for Rios i'd think we'd need to add one average spect)

Bedard for Bruce, Votto, ??



I would take it as well. Sounds pretty reasonable. But you can't deal Bailey without knowing you are getting Bedard.

hippie07
12-06-2007, 12:05 PM
Maybe its some type of 3-way thing where
Jays end up w/ Bailey
Giants end up w/ Hamilton & Votto & others
Reds end up w/ Rios & Lincecum

SultanOfSwing
12-06-2007, 12:19 PM
Maybe its some type of 3-way thing where
Jays end up w/ Bailey
Giants end up w/ Hamilton & Votto & others
Reds end up w/ Rios & Lincecum

There better be a lot more coming the Reds way in that proposed trade. Lincecum is not much better than Bailey (if at all; polished, yes, but not better).

Essentially you would be trading Hamilton, Votto, 3-4 prospects for Alex Rios. That is not a good idea. IMO, this would be much better if it involved Bedard or Haren, but not Lincecum.

jmac
12-06-2007, 12:22 PM
I have been a fan of Rios for awhile and he would be an excellent bat to add the RH pop along with BP and EE.
JH,Dunn,Jr,Votto and eventually Bruce has the scale tipped a little too far to the left.

Jay Bruce
12-06-2007, 12:23 PM
Thanks, Toronto must be solid at drafting outfielders, Vernon Wells is spectacular as well as Rios.

How is Rios' arm compared to Wells'?

They both have good arms.

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 12:25 PM
They both have good arms.

If we could somehow get Rios and a Bedard deal done without getting rid of Hamilton, our Outfield arm wise would be spectacular minus Dunn.


EDIT:
Also, looking at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor would make you think that Rios' offensive numbers would increase a fair amount.

Rogers' Centre is the 21st toughest ballpark to hit in, while GABP is 7th.

hippie07
12-06-2007, 12:31 PM
If you consider that Rios = Hamilton
and Lincecum is slightly better (or more polished) than Bailey.

Then the trade is basically a wash w/ the except that we would also give up Votto...

So, we'd be giving up Votto for a RH version of Hamilton (which would really help the team balance wise) and a slightly better (more advanced) version of Bailey... Is Votto worth those intangibles.. I dunno.

Maybe we send Giants: EdE, Hamilton, Votto, Maloney/Cueto and get back Cain and Lincecum... :)

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 12:33 PM
If you consider that Rios = Hamilton
and Lincecum is slightly better (or more polished) than Bailey.

Then the trade is basically a wash w/ the except that we would also give up Votto...

So, we'd be giving up Votto for a RH version of Hamilton (which would really help the team balance wise) and a slightly better (more advanced) version of Bailey... Is Votto worth those intangibles.. I dunno.

Maybe we send Giants: EdE, Hamilton, Votto, Maloney/Cueto and get back Cain and Lincecum... :)
I think you're misunderstanding, the rumor states that the Reds are interested in Rios, not Lincecum(although Lincecum has been mentioned in previous rumors). I don't see a three-way deal occuring.

hippie07
12-06-2007, 12:39 PM
I think you're misunderstanding, the rumor states that the Reds are interested in Rios, not Lincecum(although Lincecum has been mentioned in previous rumors). I don't see a three-way deal occuring.

The reason I bring up 3-way deal is that I really think that WK would be run out on a rail if he trades our best pitching prospect for another outfielder (where we currently have a logjam) w/ the pitching situation in the state that its in...

Maybe he's doing it in contemplation of another trade, but if that trade doesnt get done ... then, WK is screwed.

I dont see him trading Bailey unless its for pitching, a 3-way that involves pitching, or after a trade for pitching has already occured.

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 12:42 PM
The reason I bring up 3-way deal is that I really think that WK would be run out on a rail if he trades our best pitching prospect for another outfielder (where we currently have a logjam) w/ the pitching situation in the state that its in...

Maybe he's doing it in contemplation of another trade, but if that trade doesnt get done ... then, WK is screwed.

I dont see him trading Bailey unless its for pitching, a 3-way that involves pitching, or after a trade for pitching has already occured.

I believe this is what will happen, sorry for misunderstanding your post :thumbup:

Redsnake
12-06-2007, 12:44 PM
Talk about winning now. Rios and Bedard make us a playoff team for sure. I would just hate too lose the top prospects. But the 2008 season would be so exciting.

jmac
12-06-2007, 12:46 PM
[QUOTE=hippie07;1510873]If you consider that Rios = Hamilton
QUOTE]
I dont think I would call them equal (yet).
Rios is current all-star. Josh could be someday.

hippie07
12-06-2007, 12:48 PM
Is Rios only a corner outfielder/ 1st base guy .... (no center?) ....what order in the lineup is he (a leadoff candidate or cleanup type?)

AmarilloRed
12-06-2007, 12:50 PM
The only way this rumor makes sense is if we trade a outfielder for starting pitching, THEN we trade Rios for Bailey to make up for the loss of the outfielder.

schmidty622
12-06-2007, 12:55 PM
I go and get Rios right now. Dude is a excellent outfielder and a very underrated guy at the plate. If they can get him and some how move Dunn by the trade deadline we'd be looking at a monster outfield of Hamilton, Rios, and Bruce in 09. That’s a pretty damn good crew of fielders and bats loaded up in the OF.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 01:01 PM
Hamilton and Phillips for Bedard.

Then Bailey and Votto for Rios.


Dunn @ 1B, Keppinger @ 2B, Rios-Hopper-Griffey in the OF.

Get it done.

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 01:03 PM
Hamilton and Phillips for Bedard.

Then Bailey and Votto for Rios.


Get it done.

No to Phillips. He has to stay on this team.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 01:03 PM
I dont ever want to trade phillips.. behind bruce he is the second untouchable in my book..

schmidty622
12-06-2007, 01:13 PM
I guess we shouldn’t get Rios unless we find a team that wants Dunn which is also a team that Dunn would waive his no-trade for. We could also decide to deal Hamilton now for a solid pitcher and pick up Rios for bailey and change, and then sign Dunn long term. Dunn, Rios, Bruce in 2009 would be a very formidable outfield, and if we could keep Votto, EE and Phillips our lineup would be absolutely stacked.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 01:14 PM
I don't understand the love for Phillips. Sure, he hit 30 HRs, but it took him 640 ABs to do it. His OBP and SLG were only slightly better than Gonzo's. Plus, it was a career year. He's never shown that kind of power before, so there's a good chance it was a fluke.

I mean, Rich Aurilia hit 25 home runs for us, then followed that up with 5. I say sell high.

ChatterRed
12-06-2007, 01:24 PM
They must be pursuing Rios as that need RH power bat. Also, I think it might signify looking for Griffey's replacement next season. I fully expect Hamilton to be trade for starting pitching and Dunn signed to a LTC.

So the future outfield, atleast after this season will be:

LF - Dunn
CF - Rios
RF - Bruce (or CF)

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 01:33 PM
he WAS a Gold Glove caliber player on defense as well.. he has youth.. loves cincinnati and the reds.. great with kids.. i could go on for hours..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 01:39 PM
he WAS a Gold Glove caliber player on defense as well.. he has youth.. loves cincinnati and the reds.. great with kids.. i could go on for hours..

Sean Casey loved cincy and the Reds. He is great with kids. Doesn't mean we should bring him back.

Ryan Freel wants to retire a Red. Guess we can't get rid of him.

The object is to win. If you can make a trade with Phillips in it and it makes us better then you do it.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 01:39 PM
he WAS a Gold Glove caliber player on defense as well.. he has youth.. loves cincinnati and the reds.. great with kids.. i could go on for hours..

Yeah, but only one of those is important, the part about the gold glove. I mean, I like Phillips, too, but I don't see why he would be untouchable. Hamilton brings a lot more to the table and trading him is the talk of the town.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand...on second thought, I don't see how trading for Rios helps us at all.

Handofdeath
12-06-2007, 01:39 PM
I would most definitely try to acquire Rios or another quality OF like him. I disagree that OF is a strength for the Reds. It is to a certain extent when healthy (which is hardly ever) but overall it is not. I posted some time back about the lack of planning on the part of the Reds FO in regards to their future OF. Here is what you assume are the Reds OF's for 2008.

LF- Dunn- signed for this season only. Even if the Reds wanted him, they might not be able to afford him after this season.

CF- Hamilton- Though talented injury prone and ultimately unproven over the long term. Also one bad choice away from destroying his baseball career.

RF- Griffey- signed for this season only with a team option for next year. 38 years old. You know the rest.

OF- Freel- Injury prone and wore down by constant injuries. Will most certainly be on DL in 2008 if playing the OF.

OF- Hopper- excellent contact hitter but absolutely zero power. Fields well but has never had a full season in the Bigs. Also a little on the old side for that amount of experience.

Then the Reds have Jay Bruce waiting in the wings who has zero experience in the Bigs. He might work and he might not.

Griffey will not be in Cincy in 2009. Dunn may or may not be there. Hamilton, you hope, can develop his incredible tools and stay sober and healthy. That's iffy on all counts. The Reds are looking at possibly going into the Winter Meetings in 2008 having an OF of Bruce, Hopper, and Freel to supplement. The Reds will then be forced to overspend and that's usually not good. The Reds FO have not planned very well for the future and they have to do something right now not next season.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 01:43 PM
Yeah, but only one of those is important, the part about the gold glove. I mean, I like Phillips, too, but I don't see why he would be untouchable. Hamilton brings a lot more to the table and trading him is the talk of the town.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand...on second thought, I don't see how trading for Rios helps us at all.

Sorry but to all of you fans who havent realized yet.. Brandon phillips is BY FAR the best 2nd basemen in cincy since Morgan(the best of all time in most peoples books), and some older people across the community are already starting to say they think B-Phill can be better.. soo sure lets trade him for another person.. it doesnt matter that he is probably the best in the league right now.. we can give him up because we have minor leaguers to jsut fill in that are just as good..

Trading him would be dumber than signing Dunn Long term IMO..

A player the skill, age, and mentality of Phillips could fetch a #1.. maybe not this year.. but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher.. and I don't like giving up defense for other players.. look at our recent past.. WE GIVE UP DEFENSE FOR HITTING.. gets us in LAST PLACE!!! WOOOHOOO!!

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 01:48 PM
Sorry but to all of you fans who havent realized yet.. Brandon phillips is BY FAR the best 2nd basemen since Morgan(the best of all time in most peoples books), and some older people across the community are already starting to say they think B-Phill can be better.. soo sure lets trade him for another person.. it doesnt matter that he is probably the best in the league right now.. we can give him up because we have minor leaguers to jsut fill in that are just as good..

Trading him would be dumber than signing Dunn Long term IMO..

Phillips - .288/.331/.485
Gonzo - .272/.325/.468

And Gonzo plays pretty good defense, too.

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 01:51 PM
Sorry but to all of you fans who havent realized yet.. Brandon phillips is BY FAR the best 2nd basemen in cincy since Morgan(the best of all time in most peoples books), and some older people across the community are already starting to say they think B-Phill can be better.. soo sure lets trade him for another person.. it doesnt matter that he is probably the best in the league right now.. we can give him up because we have minor leaguers to jsut fill in that are just as good..

Trading him would be dumber than signing Dunn Long term IMO..

A player the skill, age, and mentality of Phillips could fetch a #1.. maybe not this year.. but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher.. and I don't like giving up defense for other players.. look at our recent past.. WE GIVE UP DEFENSE FOR HITTING.. gets us in LAST PLACE!!! WOOOHOOO!!

Brandon Phillips can't touch Joe Morgan or Chase Utley

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 01:55 PM
Sorry but to all of you fans who havent realized yet.. Brandon phillips is BY FAR the best 2nd basemen in cincy since Morgan(the best of all time in most peoples books), and some older people across the community are already starting to say they think B-Phill can be better.. soo sure lets trade him for another person.. it doesnt matter that he is probably the best in the league right now.. we can give him up because we have minor leaguers to jsut fill in that are just as good..

Trading him would be dumber than signing Dunn Long term IMO..

A player the skill, age, and mentality of Phillips could fetch a #1.. maybe not this year.. but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher.. and I don't like giving up defense for other players.. look at our recent past.. WE GIVE UP DEFENSE FOR HITTING.. gets us in LAST PLACE!!! WOOOHOOO!!

Chase Utley
AVG .332 | HR 22 | RBI 103 | OBP .410 | SLG .566
Brandon Phillips
AVG .288 | HR 30 | RBI 94 | OBP .331 | SLG .485

Definitly not the best. But he is good. And who said we trade him for just offense. You make a trade with Phillips in it only if it makes the team better. You are seriously overvalueing Phillips.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 01:55 PM
but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher

What makes you say that? He doesn't have any of the signs of a player on the rise. He doesn't hit a lot of doubles, which might turn into HRs. He doesn't show good plate discipline, which might indicate his BA would increase.

I say it's just as likely that he bats .275 with 20 HRs as it is that he'll repeat last year's performance at the plate.

Handofdeath
12-06-2007, 01:58 PM
Sorry but to all of you fans who havent realized yet.. Brandon phillips is BY FAR the best 2nd basemen in cincy since Morgan(the best of all time in most peoples books), and some older people across the community are already starting to say they think B-Phill can be better.. soo sure lets trade him for another person.. it doesnt matter that he is probably the best in the league right now.. we can give him up because we have minor leaguers to jsut fill in that are just as good..

Trading him would be dumber than signing Dunn Long term IMO..

A player the skill, age, and mentality of Phillips could fetch a #1.. maybe not this year.. but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher.. and I don't like giving up defense for other players.. look at our recent past.. WE GIVE UP DEFENSE FOR HITTING.. gets us in LAST PLACE!!! WOOOHOOO!!


Phillips might be the best Reds 2B since Morgan. But to call him the best in the NL right now is outright ludicrous. The best 2B in the NL is Chase Utley.

Handofdeath
12-06-2007, 02:00 PM
Chase Utley
AVG .332 | HR 22 | RBI 103 | OBP .410 | SLG .566
Brandon Phillips
AVG .288 | HR 30 | RBI 94 | OBP .331 | SLG .485

Definitly not the best. But he is good. And who said we trade him for just offense. You make a trade with Phillips in it only if it makes the team better. You are seriously overvalueing Phillips.

It should also be pointed out that Utley put up those stats in 120 less AB's.

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 02:00 PM
wow.......... lol. I can't believe the negative energy towards BPhilly. You don't think a player who has only played 2 years in the majors is going to improve? Unbelievable.

Dracodave
12-06-2007, 02:01 PM
A player the skill, age, and mentality of Phillips could fetch a #1.. maybe not this year.. but after next year when people see he improves every year he will command a #1 pitcher.. and I don't like giving up defense for other players.. look at our recent past.. WE GIVE UP DEFENSE FOR HITTING.. gets us in LAST PLACE!!! WOOOHOOO!!

Funny cause I dont consider Felipe defense-minded, if he did I doubt he would have been shipped out with Kearns for so little. And I dont consider Kearns the sole reason the team came in fourth and third.

Phillips command a number one? If he ever does, I trde him on the spot. He gets me a number one, I can trade some other part for a usefull second base.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:02 PM
still not bphill numbers.. most sb's hes had in one year is 7.. compared to bphills 32 last year..

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:02 PM
wow.......... lol. I can't believe the negative energy towards BPhilly. You don't think a player who has only played 2 years in the majors is going to improve? Unbelievable.

what about all of his horrible atbats with the Indians... do those count?

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:04 PM
still not bphill numbers.. most sb's hes had in one year is 7.. compared to bphills 32 last year..

and those stolen bases added maybe 3 or 4 runs... I don't feel like doing the calculations but bottom line- stolen bases are overrated...

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:09 PM
I would take Bphill over Utley if I had to draft the two.. Utley also had more errors than bphill in 24 fewer games..
Defense + offense equals great player.. not just being great at one or the other.. hence griffey being called one of the greatest players of all time.. you all will bite your tongue when you look back and realize how great Bphill will be.. I PROMISE.. HE is the greatest combination of hitting and defense for a 2b in the league.. and the best in cincy since morgan.. if you honestly think joe morgan was that far ahead of brandon phillips last year.. you are kidding yourself.. I know it was only 2 years.. but if bphill continues playing like last year for 10-15 more years he will be up with there with the greatest names of all time..

tell me bphill wont improve.. thats fine.. only make yourself look dumb..
tell me andruw jones wont command at least 18 mil AND THOSE WERE MY EXACT WORDS.. make yourself look dumb..
tell me dunn is worth 17-20 mil on a small market nl team.. make yourself look dumb again..

some people think they know baseball and some actually do.. hopefully you realize where you stand personally, because if it were up to me half of you would be shipped out like our crappy bullpen..

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:10 PM
wow.......... lol. I can't believe the negative energy towards BPhilly. You don't think a player who has only played 2 years in the majors is going to improve? Unbelievable.

Jorge Cantu batted .286 with 40 doubles and 28 HRs in his second season.

The next year he hit .249 with 14 HRs. It all went downhill from there. Thing is, he didn't have good plate discipline.

I'm not saying that's going to happen to Phillips. It's just that he doesn't have a history that indicates that he's a player on the rise.

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:12 PM
I would take Bphill over Utley if I had to draft the two.. Utley also had more errors than bphill in 24 fewer games..
Defense + offense equals great player.. not just being great at one or the other.. hence griffey being called one of the greatest players of all time.. you all will bite your tongue when you look back and realize how great Bphill will be.. I PROMISE.. HE is the greatest combination of hitting and defense for a 2b in the league.. and the best in cincy since morgan.. if you honestly think joe morgan was that far ahead of brandon phillips last year.. you are kidding yourself.. I know it was only 2 years.. but if bphill continues playing like last year for 10-15 more years he will be up with there with the greatest names of all time..

tell me bphill wont improve.. thats fine.. only make yourself look dumb..
tell me andruw jones wont command at least 18 mil AND THOSE WERE MY EXACT WORDS.. make yourself look dumb..
tell me dunn is worth 17-20 mil on a small market nl team.. make yourself look dumb again..

some people think they know baseball and some actually do.. hopefully you realize where you stand personally, because if it were up to me half of you would be shipped out like our crappy bullpen..

Chase Utley is still better than Phillips

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:15 PM
then you have no idea what you are talking about if you really think he is better than phillips.. if ANYTHING.. he is the only one considered to be as good as phillips.. but phillips is better IMO..

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:19 PM
tell me andruw jones wont command at least 18 mil AND THOSE WERE MY EXACT WORDS.. make yourself look dumb..
tell me dunn is worth 17-20 mil on a small market nl team.. make yourself look dumb again..


All that shows is that you know about contracts. Figuring contracts isn't the same as understanding the game on the field.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:23 PM
To understand contracts and prices and where they are going you must understand the game.. if Bphill played in NY or Boston, or even LA he would be a name right up there with David Wright, Jose Reyes, A-Rod and Jeter.. Fortunately for our LTD we are hopefully working on.. he doesnt.. soo we should still be able to get him cheaper than a would be market value..

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:24 PM
All that shows is that you know about contracts. Figuring contracts isn't the same as understanding the game on the field.

Other than stolen bases and a slight edge defensively, what does Phillips do better than Utley? Utley has him dominated in everything offense...

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:24 PM
and those stolen bases added maybe 3 or 4 runs... I don't feel like doing the calculations but bottom line- stolen bases are overrated...

I'd have to see those calculations. From my POV, a stolen base is as good as a 2B. If a guy steals 35 bases, and hits 25 doubles, that's like hitting 60 doubles.

You're telling me 60 doubles isn't valuable? I realize you have to factor in SB% as well (a CS costs a single), but still...

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:25 PM
if Bphill played in NY or Boston, or even LA he would be a name right up there with David Wright, Jose Reyes, A-Rod and Jeter..

This I actually agree with, but it doesn't really mean anything. It's not because Phillips is underrated, just that he would be even MORE overrated in NY or Boston...

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:25 PM
To understand contracts and prices and where they are going you must understand the game.. if Bphill played in NY or Boston, or even LA he would be a name right up there with David Wright, Jose Reyes, A-Rod and Jeter.. Fortunately for our LTD we are hopefully working on.. he doesnt.. soo we should still be able to get him cheaper than a would be market value..

In NY, Boston, or LA he wouldn't have hit 30 HRs.

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 02:26 PM
Jorge Cantu batted .286 with 40 doubles and 28 HRs in his second season.

The next year he hit .249 with 14 HRs. It all went downhill from there. Thing is, he didn't have good plate discipline.

I'm not saying that's going to happen to Phillips. It's just that he doesn't have a history that indicates that he's a player on the rise.


Did the following year have anything to do with why Cantu was just dropped by the Reds?.............. Wasn't the first season the season before the steroid crackdown, and the following, the first year of?

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:26 PM
I'd have to see those calculations. From my POV, a stolen base is as good as a 2B. If a guy steals 35 bases, and hits 25 doubles, that's like hitting 60 doubles.

You're telling me 60 doubles isn't valuable? I realize you have to factor in SB% as well (a CS costs a single), but still...

a double drives in more runs than a steal I beleive...

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 02:27 PM
In NY, Boston, or LA he wouldn't have hit 30 HRs.


In NY, Boston, or LA he also would've had another 10-15 Rs and RBI, not to mention, it's not like Utley plays his home games in a pitchers park.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:28 PM
a double drives in more runs than a steal I beleive...

Maybe. You can score from 1st on a double, but only if you have really good speed. Most guys end up at third, which isn't much better than second, because you score on a single from either base.

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:29 PM
In NY, Boston, or LA he also would've had another 10-15 Rs and RBI, not to mention, it's not like Utley plays his home games in a pitchers park.

More runs or RBI's in LA?
Reds- 783 runs
Dodgers- 735 runs

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:30 PM
Maybe. You can score from 1st on a double, but only if you have really good speed. Most guys end up at third, which isn't much better than second, because you score on a single from either base.

how often does a guy who succesfully steals score? Maybe 40% of the time?

Blue
12-06-2007, 02:31 PM
Rios is an .850 OPS outfielder who can play center but profiles better as a rightfielder. We've got one of those in Josh Hamilton, except Hamilton is better than Rios already and will probably improve. I bet there's not an ounce of truth to this rumor.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:32 PM
In NY, Boston, or LA he also would've had another 10-15 Rs and RBI, not to mention, it's not like Utley plays his home games in a pitchers park.

I don't know that that's true.

Besides, you don't judge a hitter based on Rs and RBIs, unless your the media and you're trying to build up hype. The thing that influences those stats mostly is who bats in front of you and who bats behind you.

You judge a hitter on BA, OBP, and SLG, for the most part.

*BaseClogger*
12-06-2007, 02:32 PM
Rios is an .850 OPS outfielder who can play center but profiles better as a rightfielder. We've got one of those in Josh Hamilton, except Hamilton is better than Rios already and will probably improve. I bet there's not an ounce of truth to this rumor.

thank you for getting us back on topic

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:33 PM
He also is 3 years younger than utley..

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 02:36 PM
how often does a guy who succesfully steals score? Maybe 40% of the time?

I don't know. Even 40% of 35 SB is like 15 runs. That's not insignificant.

I'm not saying a guy who steals 35 bases is as valuable as a guy who hits 35 HRs, but I think SBs are important, especially if there are guys with high BAs batting behind you in the order.

bounty37h
12-06-2007, 02:36 PM
how often does a guy who succesfully steals score? Maybe 40% of the time?

And how many dont because they are stranded because hte peeps behind em dont hit. How many doubles are stranded as well? In the end, a dude stranded on trd that stole it, and a due stranded on 2 with his double dont score a run. That is the Reds bigger problem , oo many stranded runners last year, no matter how they got to their base.

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 02:39 PM
More runs or RBI's in LA?
Reds- 783 runs
Dodgers- 735 runs


Try the Angels.....I'm pretty sure that was the LA he was looking for.

In that case, you'll find the numbers
Reds- 783 runs
Angels- 822 runs

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 02:41 PM
As much as I like Hamilton (he's one of my favorite players in the game), to call him better than, or even as good as, Alex Rios, is a farce. Rios played in 161 games last season. He also plays above average defense, and has a great bat. How many games did Hamilton play in? Who carries more baggage?

Jay Bruce
12-06-2007, 02:45 PM
Last year, Utley has an EQA of .322, Phillips was only at .271. Utley had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 68.8, while Phillips was only at 37.2. If you want a statistic that includes defense into the equation, Utley had a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 9.3 last year, while Phillips was only at 7.6. Chase Utley is a superior player to Phillips, and by a fair margin as well.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:47 PM
I would take Rios over Hamilton..

IF they had a better lineup in toronto he would have had 100 rbi's and in a park like GABP he would have hit 30-35 homers last year..

he also had 17 sac flies the last 2 years.. thats one more than Dunn has in his career..

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 02:49 PM
Last year, Utley has an EQA of .322, Phillips was only at .271. Utley had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 68.8, while Phillips was only at 37.2. If you want a statistic that includes defense into the equation, Utley had a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 9.3 last year, while Phillips was only at 7.6. Chase Utley is a superior player to Phillips, and by a fair margin as well.

Less errors.. you must not understand that..

If you look at his AHP Score Phillips had a 10.0 while Utley had a 9.4... soo in that one phillips wins..

VORP is far more reliant on others than that single player.. if player a hits 400 and has 100 runs and 150 rbis on a team that scores 1100 runs a year.. his VORP is lower than a player who hits 290 and has 100 runs and 100 rbis on a team that scores 650 runs per year.. wins as well.. if the reds ahd a bullpen Bphills "WARP" would be alot higher too..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 03:36 PM
So if we are saying a steal is as good as a double does that mean when phillips gets caught stealing we should take a hit away. let's not make stuff up people.

Brandon is a good ball player, but he is no where near the player that Utley is. Utley is a consistent producer while Phillips will never be very consistent because of his hacker tendencies. As other have said before, Phillips in only better in Defense and stolen bases. And I don't put much stock on stolen bases. There's a reason Utley was in consideration for MVP(after missing a month of baseball) and Phillips wasn't even mentioned.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 03:46 PM
you are right there is a reason... its because his ball team was in contention late in the year.. brandons wasn't..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 03:55 PM
you are right there is a reason... its because his ball team was in contention late in the year.. brandons wasn't..

or because Utley trumped Phillips in any stat that mattered.

TeamSelig
12-06-2007, 03:57 PM
LF Hamilton
CF Rios
RF Bruce
...........
Best OF ever?

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:01 PM
defense doesnt matter?

some of the posts on here amaze me to the point I wonder why you get up in the morning.. unless you honestly are just joking about this stuff..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 04:12 PM
defense doesnt matter?

some of the posts on here amaze me to the point I wonder why you get up in the morning.. unless you honestly are just joking about this stuff..

We've showed you statistics that factor in offense and defense and Utley was still better. It wasn't even close.

You are entitled to your opinion. Even if I think it's dilusional. The rest of us will take our facts and believe what we think is true. Just know you are in a very very small group of people who think Brandon is anywhere near Utley.

roby
12-06-2007, 04:16 PM
We've showed you statistics that factor in offense and defense and Utley was still better. It wasn't even close.

You are entitled to your opinion. Even if I think it's dilusional. The rest of us will take our facts and believe what we think is true. Just know you are in a very very small group of people who think Brandon is anywhere near Utley.

Count me in with Horsey. I think Brandon Philips is top of the line. He is young and getting better. remember, he struggled for several years, and is just now starting to see that he can do the job. the sky's the limit! There is more to being a baseball player than just being analyzed by stat geeks.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:20 PM
STATS FOR DEFENSE SHOW BRANDON IS BETTER MOUND PATROL.. dont know what stats you are looking at showing that B-Phill is worse.. but apparently you can't read..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 04:23 PM
STATS FOR DEFENSE SHOW BRANDON IS BETTER MOUND PATROL.. dont know what stats you are looking at showing that B-Phill is worse.. but apparently you can't read..

I'm talking about metrics that count both offense and defense. We all know Brandon is a better defensive player. But when you factor in both offense and defense Utley is far superior. Utley is one of the top players in all of baseball.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:27 PM
We've showed you statistics that factor in offense and defense and Utley was still better. It wasn't even close.

You are entitled to your opinion. Even if I think it's dilusional. The rest of us will take our facts and believe what we think is true. Just know you are in a very very small group of people who think Brandon is anywhere near Utley.

Since Stats are the only thing that matters.. tell me where Carl Pickens and his attitude factor into that.. or Randy Moss (pre being laced with drugs or something in NE), Terrell Owens, Corey Dillon, Darryl Strawberry, John Rockers' attitude didnt matter.. just his stats.. Danny Graves.. Ryan Leaf..

I hate to tell you.. but attitude and heart can contribute just as much to a teams success as having a guy hit 40 homers..

My argument isnt that his stats dont matter.. because clearly he is just as good if not better than utley.. but for you to claim stats are the only thing that matters.. tell me where the yankees are going out and getting the best stat FA every year.. they wont the world series in the past 7 years?!

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:28 PM
I'm talking about metrics that count both offense and defense. We all know Brandon is a better defensive player. But when you factor in both offense and defense Utley is far superior. Utley is one of the top players in all of baseball.

WHAT METRICS ARE YOU LOOKING AT? Still haven't seen any and VORP AND WARP.. as I have proven already don't show one players success, it shows one player compared to his team..

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 04:30 PM
Since Stats are the only thing that matters.. tell me where Carl Pickens and his attitude factor into that.. or Randy Moss (pre being laced with drugs or something in NE), Terrell Owens, Corey Dillon, Darryl Strawberry, John Rockers' attitude didnt matter.. just his stats.. Danny Graves.. Ryan Leaf..

I hate to tell you.. but attitude and heart can contribute just as much to a teams success as having a guy hit 40 homers..

My argument isnt that his stats dont matter.. because clearly he is just as good if not better than utley.. but for you to claim stats are the only thing that matters.. tell me where the yankees are going out and getting the best stat FA every year.. they wont the world series in the past 7 years?!

Sure attitude plays into the stats. and those attitudes played into last years stats where Utley produced more. The yankees don't win because they throw a ton of old former stars steadily declining. (see Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Jorge Posada) Or they sign one year wonders. (see Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright)

REDblooded
12-06-2007, 04:38 PM
this thread is funny

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:39 PM
what about damon.. gary sheffield.. alex rodriguez.. hideki matsui.. Jason Giambi.. Mike Mussina(not declining has had great years in a yankee uni).. Paul O'neill... Tino Martinez.. You are right.. they signed all people way past their prime for far too much.. and they were all one year wonders.. hence them not scoring any runs EVER.. I mean this year they outscored everyone in the country by almost 80 runs over the season.. but didn't win.. I am sure it is because they are all declining and cant produce.. right..?!

NorrisHopper30
12-06-2007, 04:44 PM
LF Hamilton
CF Rios
RF Bruce
...........
Best OF ever?

Potentially

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:46 PM
sorry i am finishing this now.. you have your opinion.. i disagree.. i have my opinion.. i am sure you disagree.. you are not going to convince be BPhill isnt better than Utley, and apparently i am not going to convince you either.. so instead of arguing lets just fight... ok just kidding.. but seriously.. i am done with this.. you are looking at some facts.. I am looking at facts as well.. and we both interpret them differently.. I put emphasis on defense.. you put emphasis on offense..

you pick utley.. I pick Bphill.. there its over..

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:49 PM
foster, geronimo, and griffey sr. was a pretty good outfield as well..

Jay Bruce
12-06-2007, 04:51 PM
WHAT METRICS ARE YOU LOOKING AT? Still haven't seen any and VORP AND WARP.. as I have proven already don't show one players success, it shows one player compared to his team..

No they aren't.


VORP (Value Over Replacement Level) is a sabermetric analysis developed by Keith Woolner that seeks to measure the contribution, in runs, of a player beyond what a backup (or replacement-level) player would produce for an average team given the same amount of playing time. VORP is adjusted for park and league, and position (for non-pitchers).



Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season

The stats are based on a comparison to an average team, meaning that these stats can be used to compare players on different teams.

In addition, you seem to be under the impression that Utley is a bad fielder. Using the plus/minus system developed by John Dewan at Baseball Info Solutions, Chase Utley was a +22, while Phillips was only a +11. Even if Phillips was a better fielder (and the difference would be miniscule), Utley is the far superior hitter, making any difference in fielding negligible.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 04:57 PM
yeah an average play on that team.. soo if a player does the same thing on a bad team as a player on a good team.. the player on the bad team looks better.. this argument is over thanks!!! but using a simple thing called fielding percentage and errors.. we see phillips is better.. my stats.. vs. your stats one says phillips one says utley.. keep your opinion to yourself I'll keep mine to me..

mlbfan30
12-06-2007, 05:10 PM
I always measure players by Heart. I call it the "H scale" from 0-100 ; 100 the highest.
The Heart scale used a combination of defense and offense. It's the ultimate value number.
The H scale has produced the following numbers....
(Only using Reds)

From the Highest - Freel = 95.34 H
To the Lowest - Dunn = 10.76 H
Player = xx.xx H
BP = 91.23
Hopper = 83.11
Keppinger = 78.09
Castro = 75.43
Hatty = 68.33
EE = 62.94
Ross = 40.01
EE = 32.98
Griffey = 18.33

According to the Heart Scale BP is the second best player on the Reds. Freel is the best. Griffey is the 2nd worst. Dunn is the worst.

When I briefly looked at the Phillies Heart scale I saw...
Rollins = 99.73 H
Rowand = 93.55 H
Howard = 82.94 H
Utley = 71.04 H

Utley is still rated pretty good, but he's over 20 Hearts lower than BP.
This is proof that BP is better than Utley. BP is in the top tier of players in baseball with more than 90 Hearts, while Utley is just over average.

Stephenk29
12-06-2007, 05:11 PM
Thread title should read Phillips vs Utley

These boards are becoming more of a joke ever day. Start a new freaking thread if you want *($%! and moan about this stuff. The last worth while post on Rios was about page 3.

Handofdeath
12-06-2007, 05:16 PM
yeah an average play on that team.. soo if a player does the same thing on a bad team as a player on a good team.. the player on the bad team looks better.. this argument is over thanks!!! but using a simple thing called fielding percentage and errors.. we see phillips is better.. my stats.. vs. your stats one says phillips one says utley.. keep your opinion to yourself I'll keep mine to me..

I would suggest that in the future if you want to type the words "Phillips is better than Utley" look at your username.

Ahhhorsepoo
12-06-2007, 05:24 PM
I would suggest that you find a new username.. hand of death? what is that? code word for the pitching skills of eric milton?

In my opinion Phillips is better.. in your opinion your point about my name was funny.. opinions only matter to people who have them.. everyone else doesnt care..

mlbfan30
12-06-2007, 05:30 PM
The thing is.... it's a fact Utley is better. Every single sabermetric stat shows Utley is a better player, and it isn't really that close. Phillips might be #1 defense, and Utley might be #5 defense at worst in the NL. The difference is so small and it's not even close to outweighing Utleys superior offense.

757690
12-06-2007, 06:27 PM
Last year, Utley has an EQA of .322, Phillips was only at .271. Utley had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 68.8, while Phillips was only at 37.2. If you want a statistic that includes defense into the equation, Utley had a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 9.3 last year, while Phillips was only at 7.6. Chase Utley is a superior player to Phillips, and by a fair margin as well.

Nice post. Although you don't even need to go that deep to know that Utley is a better and more valuable player than Phillips, at least at this stage. Just watch them play.

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 06:35 PM
So if we are saying a steal is as good as a double does that mean when phillips gets caught stealing we should take a hit away. let's not make stuff up people.


Please follow along, I already noted that.

Bip Roberts
12-06-2007, 06:38 PM
Utley is better than Phillips and anyone that doesn't believe that is being a homer

TN Red Fan
12-06-2007, 06:47 PM
Thread title should read Phillips vs Utley

These boards are becoming more of a joke ever day. Start a new freaking thread if you want *($%! and moan about this stuff. The last worth while post on Rios was about page 3.

Luckily there are two threads.

Degenerate39
12-06-2007, 07:17 PM
foster, geronimo, and griffey sr. was a pretty good outfield as well..

But could you imagine the outfield of Bruce, Hamilton, Dunn if Hamilton can stay healthy and Bruce lives up to the hype.

Stephenk29
12-06-2007, 07:40 PM
If the Reds were to pull this deal off that would probably mean the end of Dunn's run in Cincy. Rios and a full year of Hamilton would probably make up for the lost production. The only problem is the obvious loss of our pitching. Dunn would have to be traded for a pretty well regarded pitcher, I'm not sure if that will happen considering Dunn would only give that team one year under contract. Rios would be an awesome addition, but the trade would not help our pitching issues at all.

Rios, Hamilton and Bruce in 09 would be rather exciting, but what would the rotation be:confused:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Ceuto
Maloney?

mound_patrol
12-06-2007, 07:43 PM
But could you imagine the outfield of Bruce, Hamilton, Dunn if Hamilton can stay healthy and Bruce lives up to the hype.

That's if the Reds decide to try and sign Dunn long term. We might be seeing Bruce, Hamilton, and Hopper next year if Dunn and Jr are gone. Which still wouldn't be a bad outfield, but it would be nice to know soon what the organization is going to do with Dunn.

SMcGavin
12-06-2007, 09:42 PM
I always measure players by Heart. I call it the "H scale" from 0-100 ; 100 the highest.
The Heart scale used a combination of defense and offense. It's the ultimate value number.
The H scale has produced the following numbers....
(Only using Reds)

From the Highest - Freel = 95.34 H
To the Lowest - Dunn = 10.76 H
Player = xx.xx H
BP = 91.23
Hopper = 83.11
Keppinger = 78.09
Castro = 75.43
Hatty = 68.33
EE = 62.94
Ross = 40.01
EE = 32.98
Griffey = 18.33

According to the Heart Scale BP is the second best player on the Reds. Freel is the best. Griffey is the 2nd worst. Dunn is the worst.

When I briefly looked at the Phillies Heart scale I saw...
Rollins = 99.73 H
Rowand = 93.55 H
Howard = 82.94 H
Utley = 71.04 H

Utley is still rated pretty good, but he's over 20 Hearts lower than BP.
This is proof that BP is better than Utley. BP is in the top tier of players in baseball with more than 90 Hearts, while Utley is just over average.

No way, Castro's heart is at least a 90... how else to explain his presence on the roster after the .446 OPS last year? Juan Castro = Heart.

Stephenk29
12-06-2007, 10:02 PM
Just curious, is the heart scale your personal opinion or a website/writer's scale?

Hatteberg seem to have a ton of heart too.

Natty Redlocks
12-06-2007, 10:33 PM
I use a Spleen Scale, myself. That Javier Valentin, boy, he's all spleen. It don't get no better.

The Cowboy
12-06-2007, 10:44 PM
I use a Spleen Scale, myself. That Javier Valentin, boy, he's all spleen. It don't get no better.

Thats pretty funny!!

Stephenk29
12-06-2007, 10:56 PM
valentin is more of a hot dog guy. He easily hits a 94 on that scale. Cecil Fielder sets the standard of 100.

mlbfan30
12-06-2007, 11:46 PM
The Heart scale is a scale of made up mostly from the view of guys like Narron who looks for players playing the game the right way. However it also had other components such as fan bias, and local media popularity.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-07-2007, 10:10 AM
Talk about winning now. Rios and Bedard make us a playoff team for sure. I would just hate too lose the top prospects. But the 2008 season would be so exciting.
Rios and Bedard are pretty young themselves.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-07-2007, 10:14 AM
The thing is.... it's a fact Utley is better. Every single sabermetric stat shows Utley is a better player, and it isn't really that close. Phillips might be #1 defense, and Utley might be #5 defense at worst in the NL. The difference is so small and it's not even close to outweighing Utleys superior offense. What about Rios?

mlbfan30
12-07-2007, 10:59 AM
Rios is closer to BP than Brandon is to Utley
I'd rank them BP<Rios<Utley
Rios is older than many might think initially at 26 and only has a career OPS+ of 105
BP is also 26 but has a career OPS+ of 85
Utley is 28 but has a career OPS+ of 126

All 3 guys actually became noticeable and improve dramatically over the last few years.

*BaseClogger*
12-07-2007, 11:28 AM
Rios is closer to BP than Brandon is to Utley
I'd rank them BP<Rios<Utley
Rios is older than many might think initially at 26 and only has a career OPS+ of 105
BP is also 26 but has a career OPS+ of 85
Utley is 28 but has a career OPS+ of 126

All 3 guys actually became noticeable and improve dramatically over the last few years.

the important thing... where does Rios stand on the H-scale?

bounty37h
12-07-2007, 11:37 AM
No they aren't.





The stats are based on a comparison to an average team, meaning that these stats can be used to compare players on different teams.

In addition, you seem to be under the impression that Utley is a bad fielder. Using the plus/minus system developed by John Dewan at Baseball Info Solutions, Chase Utley was a +22, while Phillips was only a +11. Even if Phillips was a better fielder (and the difference would be miniscule), Utley is the far superior hitter, making any difference in fielding negligible.

OK, how bout we all just admit they are both great, and move on. Phillips was just announced as team MVP for last season, only the
2'nd 30/30 2sacker all time, and is a Red, so he gets my nod for that alone. Dont care about Utley unless he is one day on our team, but will acknowledge is is very very good too.

Blue
12-07-2007, 12:24 PM
Utley is clearly better. I can't even believe people are making this argument. HE HAD A .976 OPS AS A 2B!!! That's .160 points better than Phillips. Even if Phillips is a better defender, he's not going to make up that margin.

Wow. Just... wow.

SMcGavin
12-07-2007, 01:32 PM
The Heart scale is a scale of made up mostly from the view of guys like Narron who looks for players playing the game the right way. However it also had other components such as fan bias, and local media popularity.

I think there should also be some sort of penalty for not running to your position at the start of the inning. And a bonus for sliding head first or beating out an infield single.

*BaseClogger*
12-07-2007, 01:35 PM
I think there should also be some sort of penalty for not running to your position at the start of the inning. And a bonus for sliding head first or beating out an infield single.

What about being a punter on the football team in college?

Stephenk29
12-07-2007, 01:46 PM
I just don't understand why people get upset with people not trying to beat out routine plays to first. I personally don't question their heart a whole lot in that case.