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mlbfan30
12-07-2007, 04:45 PM
http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)
12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+ (sleeper!)
15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
17. Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
18. Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
19. Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
20. Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
21. Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+ (the strikeouts scare me)

There are six other guys I rate as Grade C+, and 11 other guys I rate at Grade C. A very rich farm system with a lot of depth.



Bailey a B+??? That's crazy

AdamDunn
12-07-2007, 04:54 PM
It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

cjtenn28
12-07-2007, 04:55 PM
No mention of Daryl Thompson???

mlbfan30
12-07-2007, 05:06 PM
Well Lotzkar is a guy who was just picked and hasn't pitched much. He easily warrants the B- grade. I think the intuitive feeling means he thinks Lotzkar might become a major top tier prospect. Lotzkar is very young (17 last year) but also has several years before reaching the majors and is extremely promising.

New Fever
12-07-2007, 05:09 PM
No Juan Francisco either, he did say there were six other c-plus prospects in his rankings though. The Reds depth is crazy. One bad season for anyone in the 7-21 range next year and they won't come close to making this list next year. Would a guy like Justin Reed be in the top 20-30 range in every other system in baseball? How about a second round pick like Zach Cozart (who was ranked 59th in BA's Top 200 before the draft) would he be in every other teams top 30?

Doc. Scott
12-07-2007, 05:25 PM
Daryl Thompson is probably one of the six other C+ guys, along with Justin Reed, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Justin Turner, and Sam Lecure.

C guys? Some combination of Bartles, Valiquette, Bowman, both Joneses, Long, Cozart, R. Gonzalez, J. Smith, Webb, T. Young, Chiu, Szymanski, Tatum, Perez, Ondrusek, Jukich, R. Ramirez, Griffin, Lutz, Smit, Anderson, Janish, Hanigan, Fisher, Avery, or Cumberland.

I wouldn't be surprised to see John list Carlos Guevara at some point, too.

mlbfan30
12-07-2007, 05:27 PM
I don't think Franzisco should be in the top 20. His BB/K rate is just too bad, and usually the hacker type doesn't amount to anything. His OBP was .301. 161 Ks and 23 BB in 534 AB.
He struck out 30% of the time. His BB/K rate would have put him 3rd to last in all of MLB for qualified hitters.

Lockdwn11
12-07-2007, 07:10 PM
It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?

cincinnati chili
12-07-2007, 09:47 PM
Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?

It's not. Bailey is far from a sure thing.

AmarilloRed
12-07-2007, 10:02 PM
Some further comments by John Sickels:

I expect the Bailey rating of "only" a B+ will be controversial. However, this will still get him into the top 20 and possibly the top 10 pitching prospects given the thinning out of talent this year. I like him, but I am worried about his command and I guess I don't like him as much as some people do.

Drew Stubbs Book Excerpt
By John Sickels
Posted on Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 01:36:49 PM CDT

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-5 WT: 190 DOB: October 4, 1984

(stats are in the book)
A star at the University of Texas, Stubbs was drafted in the first round in '06, seventh overall. He has excellent tools: speed, power, overall athleticism. Right now his best skills are defensive: he is a tremendous defensive outfielder. But his bat is surprisingly unrefined for a college player. He works the count, but his swing gets long, and he strikes out so much that some scouts doubt he'll be an adequate hitter at higher levels. He posted a +13 percent OPS in the Midwest League, and his SEC of +37 percent shows a potentially broad base of skills. Stubbs has the physical ability to be a Seven Skill player, but he needs to show he can make contact against better pitching, and he needs to improve his basestealing efficiency. He could be really good, he could be merely mediocre, or he could flame out when he reaches Double-A, a definite high-risk/high-reward prospect. Grade B-.

GoReds33
12-07-2007, 11:04 PM
I feel like an idiot. I am voting for Waring on every prospect vote we have. This guy has him 20th??? Maybe he knows something I don't.

HokieRed
12-08-2007, 12:45 AM
One thing I like about Sickels' comment is his emphasis on the system's depth. Maybe it will help lay to rest the oft heard complaint that the system lacks depth.

dougdirt
12-08-2007, 10:05 AM
I feel like an idiot. I am voting for Waring on every prospect vote we have. This guy has him 20th??? Maybe he knows something I don't.

That he has some big holes in his swing? The numbers look really good, but even Waring has mentioned that he just sits back and swings for the fences sometimes.

redsmetz
12-09-2007, 08:46 AM
One thing I like about Sickels' comment is his emphasis on the system's depth. Maybe it will help lay to rest the oft heard complaint that the system lacks depth.

This comment jumped out at me while perusing his article


Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

mbgrayson
12-09-2007, 11:18 AM
Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp)on rookie status:


Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

mth123
12-09-2007, 12:20 PM
Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp)on rookie status:

I think its just a mistake where the service time rule didn't get noticed since Burton didn't pitch the 50 innings.

BoydsOfSummer
12-09-2007, 01:16 PM
If John paid attention to every guy's service time he'd never get his book done.

D-Man
12-09-2007, 04:20 PM
Sickels' list is very interesting. Not so much for the actual ranking, but moreso for the implications.

It's a great sign that Sickels gave the Reds 11 "A" or "B" prospects. By comparison, Sickels gave the Reds these many A or B prospects in recent years:

2000: 7
2001: 12
2002: 5
2005: 5

Although the 2001 collection of prospects was impressive, it was notably different than the 2007 edition. In 2001, the Reds acquired five B prospects via the Neagle and Bichette trades. The 2008 list represents an improvement that is truly organic, one that bodes well for the minor league system and for the future of the organization.

So it is quite impressive that Sickels recognizes the Reds system depth. It might be a top five system, in terms of depth. (Although the depth is largely evident in the lower minors, and those guys generally have question marks, long roads ahead of them, or both.)

Moreover, with three "A" prospects, the Reds have three of the top 15 or 25 prospects. And with five B+ or higher prospects, that gives the Reds roughly five of the Top 50 or so. That's huge.

M2
12-10-2007, 09:58 AM
I have the top 5 in the same order as Sickels. I also like that he doesn't have Francisco in the top 20. He could be the perfect toolsy prospect (power + arm) to kick into a deal for a pitcher this winter.

TheBigLebowski
12-10-2007, 10:11 PM
It's amazing what a difference a year makes...last year Sickels criticized our system for having a few top-flight guys but little depth.

It feels darn good to have a nice farm system....I hope this continues to be the case.

Topcat
12-14-2007, 04:06 AM
I am sure we all could haggle over Sickles views on the Reds Prospects, but there is no denying its depth and what its value will be when it comes to determining the Reds next 8 years as a Ball club.

I like Sickles site and find it very informative and his giving a thumbs up so to speak, makes me even more secure in how I and a few members who have openly stated on the minor league board. The Reds future as a whole has to be homegrown if there ever to be a long term contender. I also would like to add no more cheap dollar drafting for slot $$$ best talent has to be the way to go.

Throwing away $$$$ on the Castro's and Stanton's of this world has to end and I rather they flush it into promising kids even if that fails it is by far the better investment.

RedlegJake
12-15-2007, 09:09 PM
Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp)on rookie status:

Probably because the list is from a prospect viewpoint and not an official status. I still think of Burton, Votto and Bailey as "prospects plus" meaning they've seen a bit of ML action, which helps in gradingtheir talents but not enough to really make a definitive statement.

Highlifeman21
12-16-2007, 08:50 AM
Based on our Community Prospect Voting after 16 prospects, this is how we see it.

Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier
Prospect 6 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect 7 - Matt Maloney
Prospect 8 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect 9 - Travis Wood
Prospect 10 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect 11 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect 12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect 13 - Sean Watson
Prospect 14 - Carlos Fisher
Prospect 15 - Juan Francisco
Prospect 16 - Neftali Soto


And this is how Sickels sees it.


1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A
2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-
11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B-
12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+
15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+
16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+


Apparently we liked Roenicke way better than Sickels. 8 for us, 16 for JS.
Conversely, he likes Soto way better than we did. 16 for us, 9 for JS.
He has Pelland at 13, and Pelland hasn't gotten a lot of love from us through 16 prospects.
Sickels liked Mesoraco better than we did. 10 for us, 7 for JS.
Fisher didn't crack his top 21, we had Fisher 14.
Similar for Watson. We had Watson 13, JS had him 20.

Draw your own conclusions from our rankings vs. Sickels.

IMO, he got the top 6 right, and you could almost swap Cueto and Votto, but I can go with JS on that one. Bailey at 4 is on the money, IMO.

What say you, RedsZone?

OnBaseMachine
12-16-2007, 10:04 AM
I think Sickels has Roenicke too low. We have him at eight and Baseball America has him at nine. This is a guy that throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a nasty cutter and a slider. Between Sarasota and Chattanooga this year, he allowed only 35 hits, one homerun, and struckout 56 batters in 47 innings. With numbers like that and his proximity to the majors, he is definitely a top 10 prospect in my book.

Screwball
12-16-2007, 11:00 PM
I think Sickels has Roenicke too low. We have him at eight and Baseball America has him at nine. This is a guy that throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a nasty cutter and a slider. Between Sarasota and Chattanooga this year, he allowed only 35 hits, one homerun, and struckout 56 batters in 47 innings. With numbers like that and his proximity to the majors, he is definitely a top 10 prospect in my book.

I'm with you here. But I think in JS's defense, he almost never grades out a reliever as part of an organization's top class of prospect. He sees Roenicke as just a useful bullpen spare part, whereas around here our GM is willing to give a starting SS and RF for a couple useful bullpen spare parts - whether they're actually useful or not. ;)

TRF
12-16-2007, 11:54 PM
I'm with you here. But I think in JS's defense, he almost never grades out a reliever as part of an organization's top class of prospect. He sees Roenicke as just a useful bullpen spare part, whereas around here our GM is willing to give a starting SS and RF for a couple useful bullpen spare parts - whether they're actually useful or not. ;)

Yet he has Pelland at 13. Which I guess is close to where I would have him.

Screwball
12-17-2007, 12:01 AM
Yet he has Pelland at 13. Which I guess is close to where I would have him.

Yeah, as a C+ grade. That's usually as high as he goes with relievers. Heck, as good as Burton was last year Sickels still has him as a C+.

MikeS21
12-18-2007, 09:31 PM
I just saw on Sickel's site where he said he rethought things and dropped Todd Frazier from a B+ to a B. Didn't really give a reason other than he said he may have graded Frazier a notch too high.

Orenda
12-19-2007, 09:49 AM
If you are a professional talent evaluator shouldn't categorizing a guy as a sleeper make you less credible? To me its an admission of not being able to make a judgement call on a certain type of player, its that safe zone in the middle where its easy to hide.

dougdirt
12-19-2007, 10:18 AM
If you are a professional talent evaluator shouldn't categorizing a guy as a sleeper make you less credible? To me its an admission of not being able to make a judgement call on a certain type of player, its that safe zone in the middle where its easy to hide.

I don't know.... he lists Viola and Dorn as sleepers. Over on another site I asked people about Danny Dorn and they had no clue who he was. Then they looked at the numbers and were like whoa, where did this guy come from? He is listed as a sleeper because a lot of people have no clue who he is becuase he isn't young exactly (not that he is old, but he wasn't an 18 year old 32nd round pick who burst onto the scene) and he wasn't some high draft pick, so no one really paid attention to him. He would be a Top 10 prospect in probably 25 other systems in baseball. Viola likewise has burst onto the scene as a first year player in America as a 24 year old reliever. Prior to this year I doubt even 10% of the guys who hang out on the minor league board knew who he was.... much less people who don't follow the Reds. Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.

Orenda
12-19-2007, 10:32 AM
I don't know.... he lists Viola and Dorn as sleepers. Over on another site I asked people about Danny Dorn and they had no clue who he was. Then they looked at the numbers and were like whoa, where did this guy come from? He is listed as a sleeper because a lot of people have no clue who he is becuase he isn't young exactly (not that he is old, but he wasn't an 18 year old 32nd round pick who burst onto the scene) and he wasn't some high draft pick, so no one really paid attention to him. He would be a Top 10 prospect in probably 25 other systems in baseball. Viola likewise has burst onto the scene as a first year player in America as a 24 year old reliever. Prior to this year I doubt even 10% of the guys who hang out on the minor league board knew who he was.... much less people who don't follow the Reds. Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.

I scrolled down the list and saw that he termed them sleepers and took it to mean that he thinks they have a chance of being better players then what he had them originally rated as or guys who could rise to the top of the system in the future. My point was why not just go out on the limb and make that judgement call and rate them as higher prospects. Although what you suggests probably makes more sense, as these were guys who were sleepers but now are known commodities.

RedsManRick
12-19-2007, 11:05 AM
Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.

But wouldn't the same thing be accomplished simply by giving them ratings higher than others have? I mean, if he's evaluating the player's solely on his evaluation of their merit, than buzz and others' expectation shouldn't come in to the picture at all.

To me, a sleeper is somebody who hasn't yet merited a high ranking, but who you suspect is ready to take the next step. Dorn and Viola have accomplished things, they just haven't gotten much accolade for it.

dougdirt
12-19-2007, 11:19 AM
But wouldn't the same thing be accomplished simply by giving them ratings higher than others have? I mean, if he's evaluating the player's solely on his evaluation of their merit, than buzz and others' expectation shouldn't come in to the picture at all.

To me, a sleeper is somebody who hasn't yet merited a high ranking, but who you suspect is ready to take the next step. Dorn and Viola have accomplished things, they just haven't gotten much accolade for it.

That would be like giving say, Kyle Loztkar a Top 20 ranking in baseball right now because someone really likes him and thinks he could develop into a legit #1 starter one day. Although it does seem that some people are willing to do that more and more these days because similar players have gone on to do things, they get pushed up the charts faster than the previous guy did based off of what the previous guy did (see Snider, Travis for example because he has been compared to Jay Bruce, despite that he plays a not so good corner outfield position mind you).

Lockdwn11
04-04-2008, 02:14 PM
It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.


Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.

dougdirt
04-04-2008, 02:20 PM
Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.

Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

Lockdwn11
04-04-2008, 02:28 PM
Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.

Benihana
04-04-2008, 02:32 PM
Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

Not me.

dougdirt
04-04-2008, 02:36 PM
Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.

Bailey has a better body and cleaner mechanics.

Bailey has a better fastball both because of speed and because of the plane it comes in on. Given that Baileys taller, his release point is going to be closer to the plate, so even if they are both throwing a 92 MPH fastball (just an example), Bailey's is going to get to the plate faster and its also going to be moving faster when it does reach the plate.

Bailey's curveball is a better offspeed pitch than Cueto's changeup or slider. All of the pitches are very good pitches though.

Bailey's change up which has been a lacking pitch in the past flashed some true promise this spring. With some repititions I think it could become an above average pitch.

Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2008, 02:44 PM
There's no way I'd go as far as calling Homer Bailey's curveball better than Johnny Cueto's slider or changeup. Right now Johnny Cueto has three plus pitches, which is very hard to do. Homer Bailey has two plus pitches, though the curve is still inconsistent and a changeup that, at best case scenario, turns into a plus pitch but more likely an above average pitch.

Lockdwn11
04-04-2008, 02:44 PM
Bailey has a better body and cleaner mechanics.

Bailey has a better fastball both because of speed and because of the plane it comes in on. Given that Baileys taller, his release point is going to be closer to the plate, so even if they are both throwing a 92 MPH fastball (just an example), Bailey's is going to get to the plate faster and its also going to be moving faster when it does reach the plate.

Bailey's curveball is a better offspeed pitch than Cueto's changeup or slider. All of the pitches are very good pitches though.

Bailey's change up which has been a lacking pitch in the past flashed some true promise this spring. With some repititions I think it could become an above average pitch.

Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

I would agree that Bailey looks more the part but and it just my opinion Cueto's off speed stuff looks better to me that slider is just plan nasty and his change isn't far behind !! I also see Cueto pitching at 94-96 I haven't seen Bailey do that in sometime.

dougdirt
04-04-2008, 02:51 PM
I would agree that Bailey looks more the part but and it just my opinion Cueto's off speed stuff looks better to me that slider is just plan nasty and his change isn't far behind !! I also see Cueto pitching at 94-96 I haven't seen Bailey do that in sometime.

I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

Ga_Red
04-04-2008, 02:52 PM
doug,
it's NOT April 1,
it can't be hyperbole,
is this and *un* day?
if not , I give up,,,,

I know you aren't serious
because you're wrong in
every single tenet you
propose, except that
HB is taller.

I have serious reservations about
Homer even making it to the bigs!!!

Lockdwn11
04-04-2008, 02:58 PM
I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

Like I said I value your opinion on this board but we will have to disagree on this one. I have thought for sometime that Cueto was the better of the two.

dougdirt
04-04-2008, 03:00 PM
doug,
it's NOT April 1,
it can't be hyperbole,
is this and *un* day?
if not , I give up,,,,

I know you aren't serious
because you're wrong in
every single tenet you
propose, except that
HB is taller.

I have serious reservations about
Homer even making it to the bigs!!!

I don't even know what you just typed honestly.

Bailey does have a better fastball. Its heavy and comes in on a much better downward plane. They have similar speeds, but Baileys is moving faster the entire way because his release point is closer.

Bailey's curveball, while its just my opinion (although shared by some scouts as well), rates out higher than Cueto's offspeed stuff.

The changeup's aren't really a debate, Cueto's is better.

What did I miss?

TRF
04-04-2008, 03:00 PM
I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

So Cueto has the advantage of being in midseason form after pitching 22 innings in winter ball.

4 months ago.

please.

Bailey's first start was ho hum at best. He had the advantage of being in midseason form, pitching against guys that had never seen him outside of a little video, and of course he has all those tools that Cueto lacks like height, and a curveball that is otherworldy.

Bailey all but had a rotation spot handed to him, and he couldn't harness his gifts. But Cueto's 22 (I think it was 22) innings in winterball gave him an advantage over Bailey? Not the fact that he's a pitcher and Bailey is more of a thrower, at least at this stage of his career.

I really look forward to the day when Bailey does harness his gifts. He hasn't so far, and there have been plenty of conflicting reports about his makeup and coachability during ST.

dougdirt
04-04-2008, 03:01 PM
Like I said I value your opinion on this board but we will have to disagree on this one. I have thought for sometime that Cueto was the better of the two.

Well that is why we all have different brains.... either way, I am still pretty excited that we have both guys in our system.

M2
04-04-2008, 06:22 PM
Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.

HBP
04-04-2008, 06:52 PM
Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.

Add to that Cueto's control with a more confident attitude and he's easily ahead of Bailey right now.

There's no reason though that Homer shouldn't dominate AAA this year and still be a high potential SP for the Reds. It's easy to forget that Bailey's 2006 was even better than Cueto's 2007. If he keeps the walks down and learns pitching, he'll be fine.

Joseph
04-05-2008, 10:04 AM
In Dougs defense, I don't think he's saying Bailey is the better pitcher at the moment. What he is saying is, that Baileys fastball is better 'stuff wise', he just can't locate it as well as Cueto is doing with his right now.

I agree with DD that I like Bailey to pass Cueto at some point down the line, but my goodness how good is Cueto right now?

Right now Baileys a thrower with a lot of special sauce on his throws, he just has to learn to be the pitcher Cueto appears to be in LIMITED action we've seen of him lately.

RedlegJake
04-05-2008, 10:31 AM
Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.

Really, I like Bailey's potential almost as much as Dougdirt (no one likes him AS much) - someday I think his curve would top M2's list, and maybe his fastball, too but baseball is about what are you doing for me today? And right now I agree with M2, Cueto's ahead in every phase of his game.

M2
04-05-2008, 11:55 AM
Really, I like Bailey's potential almost as much as Dougdirt (no one likes him AS much) - someday I think his curve would top M2's list, and maybe his fastball, too but baseball is about what are you doing for me today? And right now I agree with M2, Cueto's ahead in every phase of his game.

I think few things on this planet are as overrated as Bailey's curve. I don't think it's ever going to be all that good a pitch. It's got nice bend, but, IMO, it lacks bite and hitters will learn how to time it if he ever spends much time in a given league. Long term, I don't think it's a pitch he's going to want to leave in the strike zone.

I'm not sure where his fastball's headed. It's not as good as it was in 2006 and I'm hoping he's not one of those phenoms whose heater peaked at a young age. He's lost movement on it and the total body effort he puts into each one is, IMO, unsustainable for a starting pitcher. I'm hoping this is just a case of growing pains with him and he rediscovers that exploding fastball with the easy stroke, but right now he's working harder to get less and I really do wonder if he's pitching with an injured arm.

eichstadtreds
04-05-2008, 11:59 AM
Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.

Don't forget Cueto's mental make-up.

SMcGavin
04-05-2008, 05:31 PM
Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

It's not just that Bailey "doesn't always have" Cueto's control. He'd have to cut his BB rate in half to get there. It's an ocean of difference, and as good as Bailey's stuff might be, it's unlikely he will ever have the control of Cueto.

So the other stuff you said may very well be correct, but control is one supremely important area where Cueto will probably always hold a significant edge over Bailey. If Bailey holds an edge in stuff, I don't think it's a big enough edge to make up that control difference.

I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?

dougdirt
04-05-2008, 05:52 PM
It's not just that Bailey "doesn't always have" Cueto's control. He'd have to cut his BB rate in half to get there. It's an ocean of difference, and as good as Bailey's stuff might be, it's unlikely he will ever have the control of Cueto.Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.



I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?

I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.

SarasotaFan
04-05-2008, 07:19 PM
Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.

I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.

just curious why you love Homer so much ? are you in fact Homer Bailey ?? :beerme:

jmac
04-05-2008, 07:56 PM
just curious why you love Homer so much ? are you in fact Homer Bailey ?? :beerme:
I just hope Homer ends up being half the pitcher DD thinks.
Cueto has the stuff to be an exceptional big league pitcher. If Bailey ends up bettering that, then that will just make the reds that much better.

jojo
04-05-2008, 08:21 PM
And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.

It's pretty tough to criticize Cueto's delivery.

IMHO, the secret to Cueto is his command-specifically his ability to locate all of his pitches.

SMcGavin
04-05-2008, 10:42 PM
Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.

Walk rates might not be a perfect measure of control, but I think it's better than percentage of strikes thrown. Pitchers aren't trying to throw a strike with every pitch. Pitchers with better control, i.e. ones that get ahead in the count more often, figure to throw more intentional balls than pitchers with poor control. They are, however, trying not to walk just about every batter they face.

Just wondering, what % chance would you say it is that Bailey ever matches Cueto's command? Not asking for anything precise obviously, just curious what you think about that.

pedro
04-05-2008, 10:52 PM
It's pretty tough to criticize Cueto's delivery.

IMHO, the secret to Cueto is his command-specifically his ability to locate all of his pitches.

It's the knowing where to throw it next and the setting up sequences that really impress me with Cueto. Yes he has great stuff, but he also really knows how to use it in a way that belies his years.

cincinnati chili
04-05-2008, 11:04 PM
While I have always been a Bailey doubter, Doug is right that it's way too early to conclude anything.

For a long time, it looked like the Twins were cheap and idiotic to take Joe Mauer over Mark Prior.

Ga_Red
04-06-2008, 07:02 PM
1) I would like to see Bailey be an ace, someday, it would be fantastic for the Reds.
2) However, I am unwilling to disbelieve my own eyes, to root for the kid.
3) Example? We all have now seen Cueto and Volquez
pitch. Every 2 seamer they throw *MOVES*. Every
one HB throws is *STRAIGHT* , although his height
provides for a steeper downward angle.
4) Both Cueto and Volquez are short striders, and their
front foot comes down at the same place in a repeatable motion. Homer overstrides, his front footfall varies and
he has difficulty with identical reps.
5) Both Cueto and Volquez are quick to the plate.
Homer is slow motion in comparison.
6) And there's more....

Homer's straight 98 is more hittable than Volquez's 97
and Cueto's 96, both of which move and are taken for strikes more often.

I haven't compiled the stats, but my guess is that
the average speed of all fbs thrown during a game
from each of the three is lowest for Homer.

This is belaboring the point, but to suggest HB has
potential in excess of C and V is more than a stretch,
imo.

Patrick Bateman
04-06-2008, 07:28 PM
It's the knowing where to throw it next and the setting up sequences that really impress me with Cueto. Yes he has great stuff, but he also really knows how to use it in a way that belies his years.

Agreed... and we saw big time evidence of that in his first start. He works so quickly like he knows exactly what he needs to do pitches in advance. He just kept coming at them without any hesitation, and the D Backs never had a chance.

SarasotaFan
04-08-2008, 02:10 PM
1) I would like to see Bailey be an ace, someday, it would be fantastic for the Reds.
2) However, I am unwilling to disbelieve my own eyes, to root for the kid.
3) Example? We all have now seen Cueto and Volquez
pitch. Every 2 seamer they throw *MOVES*. Every
one HB throws is *STRAIGHT* , although his height
provides for a steeper downward angle.don't forget arm angle. HB is straight over the top so he'd really have to pressure one finger to get some sink and get that release point exactly where he wanted it - else the ball will remain flat through the zone.


4) Both Cueto and Volquez are short striders, and their
front foot comes down at the same place in a repeatable motion. Homer overstrides, his front footfall varies and
he has difficulty with identical reps.weird how most latin players do that isn't it ? just an observation

SarasotaFan
04-08-2008, 02:12 PM
Agreed... and we saw big time evidence of that in his first start. He works so quickly like he knows exactly what he needs to do pitches in advance. He just kept coming at them without any hesitation, and the D Backs never had a chance.

i'm sure that's one thing they teach pitchers is to get in a good rhythm - don't work too fast and don't work too slow. pitcher's who work so slow make games boring for me, regardless of if they are dominating or not.