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dunner13
12-08-2007, 10:52 AM
First I would try to get Noah Lowry from the giants for EE. Thats a pretty fair trade and should be able to get done. I would love to have haren, bedard or linecum but the price is to steep.

I would put keppinger at third, keep an outfield of dunn, hamilton, griffey. Start bruce out in AAA and realize that with the health concerns of hamilton and an aging griffey bruce will probably get called up at some point and get 150-300 at bats.

I Start Votto at first and tell hatte that hes our number 1 pinch hitter.

With a rotation of Harang whos an ace, Arroyo who even if he doesnt bounce back to his 06 form is still an above average pitcher, Lowry who is also slightly above average, then I have last years #1 pitching prospect Homer Bailey as my number 4. Homer may have struggled some last year but he had the injury and it was his first taste of the majors. I think this year he should be fully ready and have a very solid season. For sure better than the average #4 starter in baseball. For the #5 spot I let Cueto, Belisle, Maloney battle it out, If I have any doubts about Cueto being ready I start him out in AAA.

This may not give us the biggest moves of the offseason but it helps us win this year without mortgaging the future. In 08 this should give us a shot at 85 wins which is good enough to battle it out for the division. In 09 Bruce takes over for griffey and we should be ready to start our dynasty.

REDblooded
12-08-2007, 12:01 PM
Yep...nothing like losing a right handed bat in this line-up for a scrub of an arm. Thank goodness you aren't Wayne.

ChatterRed
12-08-2007, 12:07 PM
First I would try to get Noah Lowry from the giants for EE. Thats a pretty fair trade and should be able to get done. I would love to have haren, bedard or linecum but the price is to steep.

I agree in principal, but not on Lowry. I agree that WK should be targetting good pitchers who aren't named Kazmir, Haren, or Bedard......that could possibly be gotten for less in return. While most of the other clubs are going for and possibly willing to sell the farm for one great pitcher.......I think there are good pitchers that we wouldn't have to sell the farm for.


I would put keppinger at third, keep an outfield of dunn, hamilton, griffey. Start bruce out in AAA and realize that with the health concerns of hamilton and an aging griffey bruce will probably get called up at some point and get 150-300 at bats.

I completely agree about Bruce starting out in AAA until one of the injury prone outfielders, namely Griffey and Hamilton, require Bruce to be up here. Although, there is still a chance one of our OFer's could be traded.


I Start Votto at first and tell hatte that hes our number 1 pinch hitter.

I would like to see Votto inserted at first base permanently unless he fails in the first 2 months. I don't really want to see a platoon situation there. But with Dusty's reputation of preferring veteran players, I doubt we'll see anything but a platoon.


With a rotation of Harang whos an ace, Arroyo who even if he doesnt bounce back to his 06 form is still an above average pitcher, Lowry who is also slightly above average, then I have last years #1 pitching prospect Homer Bailey as my number 4. Homer may have struggled some last year but he had the injury and it was his first taste of the majors. I think this year he should be fully ready and have a very solid season. For sure better than the average #4 starter in baseball. For the #5 spot I let Cueto, Belisle, Maloney battle it out, If I have any doubts about Cueto being ready I start him out in AAA.

I am not sold on Bailey like alot of other people. But I agree that there is more to adjust to in the major leagues than just pitching. It's a whole new world - bigger stadiums, more fans in the seats, sitting in dugouts and playing against big name players you've read about in newspapers and seen on ESPN, more money, etc......I think adjusting to the major leagues is probably a bit nerve-wracking for some. I think it will be interesting, now that he has gotten a taste of the big leagues, how Homer responds this ST.


This may not give us the biggest moves of the offseason but it helps us win this year without mortgaging the future. In 08 this should give us a shot at 85 wins which is good enough to battle it out for the division. In 09 Bruce takes over for griffey and we should be ready to start our dynasty.

I will be shocked if we don't trade for a starting pitcher AND sign a FA starting pitcher for the #4 or 5 slot.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 12:26 PM
For the last time Lowry is terrible. Nothing about him is good.

hippie07
12-08-2007, 01:05 PM
If I were Wayne...
Bailey for Rios
Freel & Stubbs package for Volquez
Hamilton package for James Shields

Harang
Arroyo
Shields
Belisle
Volquez/Cueto

and Rios takes over CF and cleanup in the batting order

thatcoolguy_22
12-08-2007, 01:53 PM
If I were Wayne...
Bailey for Rios

...


and Rios takes over CF and cleanup in the batting order

Where did you get your Aqua Dots from? I thought they pulled those off of the shelves?

sweetsport06
12-08-2007, 02:35 PM
i dont know about anybody else but as of when edison volquez allowed the grand slam to kevin kouzmanoff for the first pitch in his first major league at bat, i more or less figured his future was pretty clearly set in stone. trading anything for him would be a complete waste, especially in home-run friendly great american ballpark.

Pitching
IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 TEX 12.2 25 22 20 3 10 11 14.21 2.76 .403
2006 TEX 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 7.29 2.07 .359
2007 TEX 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 4.50 1.44 .262
Career 80.0 111 68 64 14 42 55 7.20 1.91 .329

14 homeruns in 80 innings pitched. matt belisle allowed 26 hr in 177 innings last year. even if that isnt ridiculious enough look at the amout of hits the guy allows. im sure everyone will point out how his stats are improving but face it. its clear more than ever the word "package" has become to cliche. people think acquiring dontrelle willis would of ruined the reds then they point out to trade for someone even worse believing it will help the team. come on face the facts and be realistic. now you want someone who can help the reds pitching wise id say rhp carlos carrasco on the phillies for edwin encarnacion and gary majeski/ marcus mcbeth. probably even all three. sure it would be overpaying but he is the type of player who could have an immediate impact. if i took it even swich eddie for hamilton. yeah he is that good.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Carlos%20Carrasco&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=471911

TC81190
12-08-2007, 02:45 PM
For the last time Lowry is terrible. Nothing about him is good.

LMAO.

Lowry '07 - 156 IP, 155 hits. 3.92 ERA (which would've been 2nd on the Reds, for a starter's ERA.)

I wish the rest of the Reds staff was as terrible as Lowry, then.

TC81190
12-08-2007, 02:48 PM
i dont know about anybody else but as of when edison volquez allowed the grand slam to kevin kouzmanoff for the first pitch in his first major league at bat, i more or less figured his future was pretty clearly set in stone. trading anything for him would be a complete waste, especially in home-run friendly great american ballpark.

Pitching
IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 TEX 12.2 25 22 20 3 10 11 14.21 2.76 .403
2006 TEX 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 7.29 2.07 .359
2007 TEX 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 4.50 1.44 .262
Career 80.0 111 68 64 14 42 55 7.20 1.91 .329

14 homeruns in 80 innings pitched. matt belisle allowed 26 hr in 177 innings last year. even if that isnt ridiculious enough look at the amout of hits the guy allows. im sure everyone will point out how his stats are improving but face it. its clear more than ever the word "package" has become to cliche. people think acquiring dontrelle willis would of ruined the reds then they point out to trade for someone even worse believing it will help the team. come on face the facts and be realistic. now you want someone who can help the reds pitching wise id say rhp carlos carrasco on the phillies for edwin encarnacion and gary majeski/ marcus mcbeth. probably even all three. sure it would be overpaying but he is the type of player who could have an immediate impact. if i took it even swich eddie for hamilton. yeah he is that good.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Carlos%20Carrasco&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=471911


That's a small sample size, and his 2nd stint in the majors. A certain pitcher named Bailey didn't exactly shine in a similar amount of PT this year, either.

Volquez has a good K rate, HR rate, and didn't allow too many hits in the minors. He didn't have a great BB rate, but he's still young, and those things can be corrected.

This is exactly the type of player the Reds should be targeting.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 02:49 PM
LMAO.

Lowry '07 - 156 IP, 155 hits. 3.92 ERA (which would've been 2nd on the Reds, for a starter's ERA.)

I wish the rest of the Reds staff was as terrible as Lowry, then.

do you know anything about the guy? He would get crushed in the Central.

His K/BB ratio is terrible, his Whip is terrible, and hes a soft tosser. The NL west is a terrible hitting division full of pitchers parks. He would get crushed moving into the central.

TC81190
12-08-2007, 02:52 PM
do you know anything about the guy? He would get crushed in the Central.

His K/BB ratio is terrible, his Whip is terrible, and hes a soft tosser. The NL west is a terrible hitting division full of pitchers parks. He would get crushed moving into the central.


WHIP is definitely not a good stat to measure a pitcher by, and yes he does have problems with allowing the BB, but so does an aforementioned Homer Bailey, who many of us here are pinning the hopes of this team having good pitching on for the next couple years.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 02:54 PM
WHIP is definitely not a good stat to measure a pitcher by, and yes he does have problems with allowing the BB, but so does an aforementioned Homer Bailey, who many of us here are pinning the hopes of this team having good pitching on for the next couple years.

Homer bailey is 21 and can throw in the mid 90s atleast

Noah Lowry hits 90 on good days and is 27

and whip is a much better stat to judge a pitcher by than ERA in a bad hitting division with parks like what hte dodgers padres and giants all play in.

hippie07
12-08-2007, 03:01 PM
Where did you get your Aqua Dots from? I thought they pulled those off of the shelves?

Don't really know what you're implying here, but in my trade idea - the Reds would basically be exchanging:

Hamilton for Rios
Bailey for Shields
and obtaining a good promising pitching prospect for spare parts (Rangers are interested in Hamilton and Freel and I don't see them being a good trading partner for Hamilton)

Hamilton and Rios is basically a wash except that Rios is more proven and is a RH excellent hitter which the team desperately needs if they want to "win now".

Bailey & Shields is a bit different .... Shields is a young SOLID #3 guy (Arroyo-esque but cheaper) and Bailey is a huge question mark w/ #1 potential, but potential that he may never reach. It may be that in a few years we'd rather have Bailey than Shields on the staff, but for next year.. I'd rather have the solid #3 than a question mark...... plus, some scouts value Cueto more than Bailey, so .... I think he's a prospect we can lose if it "upgrades the staff".

Bigredfan#1
12-08-2007, 03:27 PM
I would not trade EE for Lowery, I would not mind trading him but I also am not in a hurry to trade him. I would hope to find a 5th starter and hope Cueto would be ready by the break. I would hang on to Hamilton unless I could get a front of the rotation starter. I think we will be ok with what we have, I wouldn't panic and mortgage my future to try to compete now unless it was just an overwhelming offer!!

I am still high on Bailey! Higher on him than Cueto, think they are future 1 and 2 in the rotation.

I think WK will make some move I just hope he does not pull a Lopez and Kearns type deal, still one of the worst moves imho that the Reds have made!

I would also take a chance on Prior, give up a couple of prospects and hope he returns to form ala Carpenter. He is a winner and could be a major steal. I realize he could flop as well but you have to role the dice sometimes!!

*BaseClogger*
12-08-2007, 04:07 PM
About Noah Lowry- Josh Hamilton for Ian Snell must not sound so bad to some of you now...

*BaseClogger*
12-08-2007, 04:09 PM
LMAO.

Lowry '07 - 156 IP, 155 hits. 3.92 ERA (which would've been 2nd on the Reds, for a starter's ERA.)

I wish the rest of the Reds staff was as terrible as Lowry, then.

I don't think he has enough mound presence or charisma...

SMcGavin
12-09-2007, 01:05 PM
WHIP is definitely not a good stat to measure a pitcher by, and yes he does have problems with allowing the BB, but so does an aforementioned Homer Bailey, who many of us here are pinning the hopes of this team having good pitching on for the next couple years.

Silly comparison really, Lowry last year had 4.9 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9. That is awful. If Bailey is putting up those numbers in a couple of seasons I think everyone here would agree that he had failed.

It would be one thing if Lowry had control problems but alo stuck out a lot of guys but that is not the case. I don't know what has happened to Lowry over the past two seasons but his strikeouts dropped considerably at the same time his walks were going way up. The fact that he still has a decent ERA is pretty much just luck at this point.

ChatterRed
12-09-2007, 05:57 PM
About Noah Lowry- Josh Hamilton for Ian Snell must not sound so bad to some of you now...

.....no but it snells bad. :p::D

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:09 PM
Here's this....



Mets Talked To Giants About Lowry

MLB Trade Rumors - 12/07/2007

David Lennon reports that the Mets had conversations with the Giants about sending Lastings Milledge over for Noah Lowry. The Giants wanted a young pitcher back as well, so Minaya shipped Milledge elsewhere. Still, the Lowry idea could be revisited.

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:34 PM
Lowry is a decent pitcher.

The reason he keeps his ERA down is not luck, it's because he had a .199 BA Against with men on base.

He also had an elbow strain last year and had 3 bad starts in a row before the Giants sat him down. Before that, his ERA was 3.30.

And BB/K rate is overrated for established major leaguers. It's a good stat for evaluating prospects because it shows the guy has dominating stuff and good control. The rest can be taught. If you see a prospect with a good BB/K but a bad ERA, it's OK because it usually means he's got the ability but needs to work on the mental side.

That's the thing about Lowry. His stats tell me he's a guy who doesn't have great ability, but doesn't get rattled and knows how to pitch out of a jam.

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2007, 11:38 PM
Lowry is a decent pitcher.

The reason he keeps his ERA down is not luck, it's because he had a .199 BA Against with men on base.

He also had an elbow strain last year and had 3 bad starts in a row before the Giants sat him down. Before that, his ERA was 3.30.

And BB/K rate is overrated for established major leaguers. It's a good stat for evaluating prospects because it shows the guy has dominating stuff and good control. The rest can be taught. If you see a prospect with a good BB/K but a bad ERA, it's OK because it usually means he's got the ability but needs to work on the mental side.

That's the thing about Lowry. His stats tell me he's a guy who doesn't have great ability, but doesn't get rattled and knows how to pitch out of a jam.

and you think it is appropriate to assume he will continue to pitch out of these jams?

mlbfan30
12-10-2007, 11:45 PM
Do you want to get a pitcher who contently gets in trouble. His WHIP was 1.5, which is giving up 3 baserunners every 2 innings. His BAA might be "low" but his BB is high. He is not a groundball pitcher and the new ballpark would hurt him a lot. Those outs in SF now becomes HRs with men on base. He gave up 12 HR last year, but 21 both years before that. His ERA in 2006 was 4.74. That's a better indication. His ERA in 2005 was 3.78, but look at that BB/K. It was 2.26 in 05, (which still is bad), but got worse in 06 (1.5) and worse in 07 (1.0). Thats horrible. Absolutely nothing about his peripherals indicate he's anything better than a #5, and certainly indicate that he's equal or worse than Belisle.

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:49 PM
and you think it is appropriate to assume he will continue to pitch out of these jams?

Is it appropriate to assume that he's going to repeat that 1:1 BB/K rate?

My guess at Lowry's #s at GABP go something like: 150 IP, 100 K, 75 BB, 4.50 ERA.

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:57 PM
Absolutely nothing about his peripherals indicate he's anything better than a #5, and certainly indicate that he's equal or worse than Belisle.

That's the thing...his peripherals say he's a #5, but the bottom line, his ERA, says he's a #2/3. So I split the difference and say he's a 3/4.

I think Belise is his floor, Arroyo is his ceiling.

Bip Roberts
12-11-2007, 12:07 AM
Think he pitches in the NL west and get back to me.

Bip Roberts
12-11-2007, 12:15 AM
i would look at maybe seeing what Matt Wise would cost to bring in.

mlbfan30
12-11-2007, 12:19 AM
That's the thing...his peripherals say he's a #5, but the bottom line, his ERA, says he's a #2/3. So I split the difference and say he's a 3/4.

I think Belise is his floor, Arroyo is his ceiling.

Would you agree that FIP is a better stat than ERA.
It has to be considering it's independent of fielding, and teams that have good fielding influence ERA. The Giants have Feliz and Visquel at 3B and SS really helps out a lot.
Also the league ERA for Lowry compared to Belisle was a 0.22 difference

mlbfan30
12-11-2007, 12:24 AM
Lowrys FIP last year was 4.85. Belisle was 4.54....
If you add 0.22 onto Lowry to acount for GABP that makes him at a 5.07.
Belisle was 0.5 run better than Lowry last year acounting for fielding and ballpark. This isn't "exact" due to assuming Lowry would have the same league ERA as Belisle if he were with the Reds, but it's very close.
Also bullpens need to be considered with this also. The Reds had the worst bullpen last year, so the inherited runners will score more often. Someone who has a high WHIP will force the bullpen to try to get out of his jams, and if the bullpen sucks, then ERA increases. FIP doesnt take that into acount.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 12:29 AM
I sign 2 free agent starting pitchers. Bailey and Cueto will be major contributors to our future success, Votto should be our starting first baseman, and Hamilton and Bruce should be part of our future outfield. I would much rather pay for starting pitching in the short term than trade away our future.

mlbfan30
12-11-2007, 12:32 AM
Sign who... Who will be good enough to contribute that aren't major injury risks, but bad enough to only need a 1 year deal.... name 2 of them.... I bet you can't

Bip Roberts
12-11-2007, 12:34 AM
I cant name 2 that I think would be better than Bailey belisle and probably cueto, I doubt i could name 1

Hondo
12-11-2007, 12:41 AM
Forget that Guy. Sell the Farm for Santana. Then Take on A.J. Burnett's Contract from Toronto for minimal players...

Let's play Ball...

Thankya

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 12:43 AM
Bailey and Cueto will be major contributors to the Reds future, but they both need time to finish their development. We may very well rush both pitchers and have them end up like Prior and Wood. You are correct that there are not 2 free agent pitchers as good as Bailey and Cueto, but both pitchers will not be hurt by spending additional time in AAA.

TN Red Fan
12-11-2007, 01:00 AM
Bailey and Cueto will be major contributors to the Reds future, but they both need time to finish their development. We may very well rush both pitchers and have them end up like Prior and Wood. You are correct that there are not 2 free agent pitchers as good as Bailey and Cueto, but both pitchers will not be hurt by spending additional time in AAA.
I think it's very possible Cueto could be ahead of Bailey. He's young, but the way he tore through the minors...it was like he got better the tougher the competition got. That's a very good sign.

757690
12-11-2007, 01:22 AM
Would you agree that FIP is a better stat than ERA.
It has to be considering it's independent of fielding, and teams that have good fielding influence ERA. The Giants have Feliz and Visquel at 3B and SS really helps out a lot.
Also the league ERA for Lowry compared to Belisle was a 0.22 difference


No, I do not think FIP is better than ERA. FIP is a very experimental stat, that was created by one guy. It has a lot of randomness to it.
Please explain why HR's are multiplied by 13, BB&HBP are multiplied by 3 and ks are multiplied by 2. Those numbers could easily be 10, 4 and 3, which would create a completely different FIP.
What was the methodology that was used to determine these numbers?

Even if you can provide a clear and definitive answer to that, here is a very well written summary from wikipedia, of how non-definitive FIP is.

"The controversy over DIPS was heightened when Tom Tippett at Diamond Mind published his own findings in 2003. Tippett concluded that the differences between pitchers in preventing hits on balls in play were at least partially the result of the pitcher's skill.[7] Tippett analyzed certain groups of pitchers that appear to be able to reduce the number of hits allowed on balls hit into the field of play (BHFP). Like McCracken, Tippett found that pitchers' BABIP was more volatile on an annual basis than the rates at which they gave up home runs or walks. It was this greater volatility that had led McCracken to conclude pitchers had "little or no control" over hits on balls in play. But Tippet also found large and significant differences between pitchers' career BABIP. In many cases, it was these differences that accounted for the pitchers' relative success. Many subsequent studies have been done, with varying conclusions."

Basically, the jury is still out on whether or not DIPS, like FIP are even valid, let alone better than ERA.

I do want to make clear that I do not think that ERA is the best judge of a pitchers ability. I just am not convinced that FIP is better.

*BaseClogger*
12-11-2007, 01:41 PM
No, I do not think FIP is better than ERA. FIP is a very experimental stat, that was created by one guy. It has a lot of randomness to it.
Please explain why HR's are multiplied by 13, BB&HBP are multiplied by 3 and ks are multiplied by 2. Those numbers could easily be 10, 4 and 3, which would create a completely different FIP.
What was the methodology that was used to determine these numbers?

Even if you can provide a clear and definitive answer to that, here is a very well written summary from wikipedia, of how non-definitive FIP is.

"The controversy over DIPS was heightened when Tom Tippett at Diamond Mind published his own findings in 2003. Tippett concluded that the differences between pitchers in preventing hits on balls in play were at least partially the result of the pitcher's skill.[7] Tippett analyzed certain groups of pitchers that appear to be able to reduce the number of hits allowed on balls hit into the field of play (BHFP). Like McCracken, Tippett found that pitchers' BABIP was more volatile on an annual basis than the rates at which they gave up home runs or walks. It was this greater volatility that had led McCracken to conclude pitchers had "little or no control" over hits on balls in play. But Tippet also found large and significant differences between pitchers' career BABIP. In many cases, it was these differences that accounted for the pitchers' relative success. Many subsequent studies have been done, with varying conclusions."

Basically, the jury is still out on whether or not DIPS, like FIP are even valid, let alone better than ERA.

I do want to make clear that I do not think that ERA is the best judge of a pitchers ability. I just am not convinced that FIP is better.

It seems to me like you are in the middle of a tug-of-war game between new-school and old-school and can't make up your mind which is better so you just reject both...

757690
12-11-2007, 02:54 PM
It seems to me like you are in the middle of a tug-of-war game between new-school and old-school and can't make up your mind which is better so you just reject both...

Not really. I am not rejecting either, I just don't think either one is dogma. The question was "Don't we all agree that FIP is better than ERA as a stat?" My answer is no, I don't agree that FIP is better and explained why, and also showed that there is not even general agreement amongst all fans that FIP is better than ERA.

I love Bill James, I love stats, and I love coming up with new and better approaches to understanding the great and complex game of baseball. I also think that we are just at the beginning of understanding stats, and how to best utilize them. And I think mistakes have been made along this very short path we've taken so far.

So, I just don't see the need to think that DIPS and other newer stats are the new gold standard and necessarily are better than the older more conventional stats. Especially when they have yet to be really tested with time. However, I am all for progress and for trying to come up with new stats and approaches to understanding baseball.