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757690
12-08-2007, 08:25 PM
From Fay's Blog:

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2007/12/bedard-deal-not-dead.asp


"Just finished my Sunday Insider for the paper. Here's the cliff notes version: The Reds still think they can get a deal done for Erik Bedard. They're not going to give up Jay Bruce to get one done, however.

That would mean Homer Bailey would likely be in the package. I'm guessing here but I think it would take Bailey, Joey Votto and a top prospect to get the deal done.

Would you make that trade? I think Bailey could develop into a No. 1 or 2 type. But Bedard's already there and he's left-handed.

And, by the way, they're still counting the numbers from Redsfest, but attendance is going to be over 20,000 -- a record."


Wow. I can't imagine the Orioles would give up Bedard without getting Bruce, but if WK can make it happen....

hippie07
12-08-2007, 08:33 PM
Where is he getting that info - from WK? ....doubt it...
I'm glad we're still aiming high though, I thought from recent comments that WK was getting discourages and trying only for the Tomko, Wells, Leiber field

BearcatShane
12-08-2007, 08:36 PM
Would you do Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto for Bedard? I wouldn't.

Reverend Doo-Rag
12-08-2007, 08:45 PM
Is there a more strangely run ballclub than the Orioles? What exactly has their plan been for the last, whatever, 20 years?

gedred69
12-08-2007, 08:55 PM
Would you do Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto for Bedard? I wouldn't.

No way those three. Bailey and Hamilton would be a hard trigger to pull, but maybe.... Votto? No way. I really find it difficult to trade Bailey. We've all ranted about how poor the Reds have been at developing pitchers, and to give up one who's finally at the cusp?

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 08:56 PM
Would you do Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto for Bedard? I wouldn't.


No i wouldnt do it either

jimbo
12-08-2007, 09:03 PM
Would you do Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto for Bedard? I wouldn't.

I would trade any combination of two out of those three and throw in a mid-level prospect in a heartbeat, but not all three of them.

I would also want to try to get Bedard locked up for a few more years, wouldn't make that trade for a one-year rental.

This sounds really encouraging. Bedard is the real deal. I had him on my fantasy team last summer and I think he could have won the Cy Young if he hadn't got hurt towards the end.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 09:04 PM
hes got 2 years left before hes a FA btw

jimbo
12-08-2007, 09:05 PM
hes got 2 years left before hes a FA btw

Thanks for the info, wasn't sure on that.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2007, 09:06 PM
np

kbrake
12-08-2007, 09:24 PM
If the Reds could get Bedard to sign a LTC I would have no problem parting with Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto. Bedard is a stud.

jmac
12-08-2007, 09:36 PM
Where is he getting that info - from WK? ....doubt it...
I'm glad we're still aiming high though, I thought from recent comments that WK was getting discourages and trying only for the Tomko, Wells, Leiber field

Exactly ! I still think WK is out to get a top-notch pitcher because the boss said get somethin done. We got Baker and Cordero and I cant believe he will settle for a Tomko type. Maybe as a #5 but not as a main aquisition !

UPRedsFan
12-08-2007, 10:12 PM
What happened in September with Bedard last year? His last start was in Aug. Why such low innings and he's never made more than 28 starts?

Wonder if he'd be there in October if he helped get us to October.

I don't think I'd trade Bruce or Bailey for him. Maybe Hamilton, Votto, Maloney

UPRedsFan
12-08-2007, 10:32 PM
Oops guess Bedard made 33 starts in 06, but still I wonder about his durability.

captainmorgan07
12-08-2007, 10:38 PM
if we get bedard we have to be one of the favorites in the central. I like the rest of you think we can get bedard with the combo of 2 of those 3 not all three. I'd hate to lose prospects but i wanan win now im sick of the losing.

AmarilloRed
12-08-2007, 11:13 PM
Reds Still Pursuing Bedard

The Reds definitely have the talent to acquire Erik Bedard from the Orioles. They may even be able to pull it off without including Jay Bruce. John Fay believes Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and a top prospect could work. Johnny Cueto, a 21 year-old hard-throwing starter, would definitely be on the Orioles' short list. Those three would be a slam dunk for Baltimore.

You could also imagine guys like Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion piquing Andy MacPhail's interest. There are many ways this deal could work.

I don't see the Reds trading both their top pitching prospect for Bedard. I would be really interested to know what John Fay's source is. From all Krivsky has said, the Reds are looking at second-tier pitchers to compete for a starting spot.

ED44
12-08-2007, 11:25 PM
I wouldn't mind packaging Bailey OR Cueto, but NO WAY do I deal them both along with a Hamilton.

757690
12-08-2007, 11:38 PM
John Sickels ranked SS Todd Frazier right behind Bailey and gives him the same letter grade, a B+. Funny when he was picked by the Reds, i remember Keith Law saying it was a terrible pick, that Frazier was projected back-up at best.

If the Reds can convince the O's that Sickels is smarter than Law (not too tough in my estimation), then maybe they will take Bailey, Votto and Frazier for Bedard. It would be three of the Reds top 5 prospects, which I doubt anyone else would be willing to give up.

BlfdVaFan
12-08-2007, 11:46 PM
Would you do Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto for Bedard? I wouldn't.

Can you say Frank Robinson?

hippie07
12-08-2007, 11:53 PM
John Sickels ranked SS Todd Frazier right behind Bailey and gives him the same letter grade, a B+. Funny when he was picked by the Reds, i remember Keith Law saying it was a terrible pick, that Frazier was projected back-up at best.

If the Reds can convince the O's that Sickels is smarter than Law (not too tough in my estimation), then maybe they will take Bailey, Votto and Frazier for Bedard. It would be three of the Reds top 5 prospects, which I doubt anyone else would be willing to give up.

I really like Frazier... I'd almost rather give up EdE ...

mlbfan30
12-08-2007, 11:59 PM
Frazier ETA would be 2009 at the earliest. I like EE at 3B with Keppinger a super-sub. By the time Frazier is ready EE would be probably still be relatively cheap. By that time EE should still have good value and Frazier could just replace him without having to overpay for a FA 3B

hippie07
12-09-2007, 12:06 AM
I know this is more a minor league forum question - but why was Frazier in A ball.. wasn't he a college pick??

He should be in AAA next year, IMO.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 12:15 AM
Here are the combos I would trade to the O's for Bedard:

Bailey and Hamilton.
Bailey and Votto.
Cueto and Hamilton.
Cueto and Frazier.
Hamilton, Stubbs, and Frazier.
Bailey, Hamilton and Bray.
EE, Bray, and Maloney.

hippie07
12-09-2007, 12:33 AM
My inclination from things I've read is that WK is willing to trade Hamilton, EdE, Bailey... all 3 for Bedard would be tough to swallow.. WK doesn't want to trade Votto, but I suppose he will if he feels like he has to ... we could trade Hamilton, EdE, and Bailey for Bedard and .. yeah, we'd be overpaying, but really we could afford that trade....
Kepp for EdE until Frazier takes over in 09, Bruce in CF or Hopper (or Cameron if we go the supurb defenisve CFer route that I think WK perfers).

Another way to go would be Hamilton, Bruce/Cameron, Griffey in the outfield and Dunn on 1st if Votto is traded... but, like I said I think WK is more apprehensive about trading Votto than Hamilton.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 12:37 AM
I don't know. I'v heard that Krivsky see's Votto as a AAAA player believe it or not.

HokieRed
12-09-2007, 12:45 AM
I hope it all just turns out to be rumor. Every proposal I have seen is pure overpayment by the Reds, trading done from panic and weakness.

kbrake
12-09-2007, 12:54 AM
I hope it all just turns out to be rumor. Every proposal I have seen is pure overpayment by the Reds, trading done from panic and weakness.

How so? Bedard is a proven guy. Bailey and Votto have proved nothing. Hamilton hasnt proved much either and is a huge risk for a team to take on. Its not a panic move. Its potential for something real.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 01:01 AM
We can sit and wait 2-3 years for our prospects to pan out, and IF they pan out like most of us project them too we'll have a very nice team for a long time. Nothing is guaranteed though, what if Homer is a 4.3 ERA type of pitcher and what if Jay Bruce is a .270 25 homer 85 RBI guy that plays good defence instead of the Hall of Famer I project him to be? I'm tired of waiting, I wanna win NOW, I'm hungry, I'm starving for October Baseball. If we can land Erik Bedard we will play in October if we can stay relatively heathy. All indications are the Reds are in on Bedard, if they are Wayne better be trying to make the absolute best deal possible that does not include Bruce. Harang-Bedard-Arroyo.... It just makes me giddy.. I wanna win NOW! Get it done.

HokieRed
12-09-2007, 01:06 AM
We get two years Bedard. Homer's out of the rotation so you've got to get another pitcher anyway. If Bedard gets hurt--always a very real possibility with starting pitchers--you've got nothing next year--nothing. Harang, Arroyo (if they stay healthy), Belisle etc. Bedard doesn't make the Reds a lock to win the Central in 2008, and that's especially true if we don't have Votto, Hamilton, and Bailey. So you give up enormous future value--think how cheap Votto, Hamilton, and Bailey will be for the next five years--for the slightly improved chance of winning the division in 2008 (something that's pretty much of a stretch under any circumstances given the amount of improvement it means from this year). Let somebody else overpay for Bedard.

HokieRed
12-09-2007, 01:07 AM
I've watched baseball way too long to think that it's as easy as "if we get Erik Bedard we will play in October." Why play the games?

fewfirstchoice
12-09-2007, 01:11 AM
Id make the trade then send EE to Giants for Lowry straight up.Then sign Leiber to a 2 year contract to hold down the 5 spot for a couple years. That would give the Reds a pretty young(except Leiber) and good rotation.The best rotation in the NL by far.

1)Harang
2)Bedard
3)Arroyo
4)Lowry
5)Leiber

C Ross
1B Keppinger/Hatte
2B Phillips
3B Freel/Keppinger
SS Gonzo
LF Dunn
CF Hamilton
RF JR

That gives you 4 guys that have power and can produce runs(Dunn,JR,Phillips.Hamilton).
2 guys that can steal bases Hamilton and Freel.
Also it would be a team that has mostly good defense in all positons.I think they would win the NL.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 01:11 AM
I've watched baseball way too long to think that it's as easy as "if we get Erik Bedard we will play in October." Why play the games?




I may have went a little overboard with that statement but we'd have a lot better chance with Bedard than without him. I just wanna win.

757690
12-09-2007, 01:15 AM
We can sit and wait 2-3 years for our prospects to pan out, and IF they pan out like most of us project them too we'll have a very nice team for a long time. Nothing is guaranteed though, what if Homer is a 4.3 ERA type of pitcher and what if Jay Bruce is a .270 25 homer 85 RBI guy that plays good defence instead of the Hall of Famer I project him to be? I'm tired of waiting, I wanna win NOW, I'm hungry, I'm starving for October Baseball. If we can land Erik Bedard we will play in October if we can stay relatively heathy. All indications are the Reds are in on Bedard, if they are Wayne better be trying to make the absolute best deal possible that does not include Bruce. Harang-Bedard-Arroyo.... It just makes me giddy.. I wanna win NOW! Get it done.

I agree with you. However, I think that the Reds will be playing in October even if they get filler for the back end of the rotation. In the NL Central, the Reds are as good as any other team, and better than most.

Why not play out the season with the roster they have plus a few cheap starters. By the time the trading deadline comes around, the Reds will have a good idea if Hamilton and Votto are an everyday players, if Bailey and Cueto are ready for the majors and if Bruce is the stud everyone thinks he is.

Then trade for more pitching if they need it. The biggest problem with trading any of the big five right now, is that so much is unknown about them. Why not wait until more is known about them and what the Reds needs are at that time, and then use them to get whoever the Reds need.

I think the Reds can easily stay in the race until then, regardless of how they perform.

That being said, I do think that if they can get Bedard without giving Bruce, and without giving either both Bailey and Cueto, or both Hamilton and Votto, it would be worth it. But he is the only pitcher that is worth that.

hippie07
12-09-2007, 01:17 AM
Someone brought up Lowry, again ***incoming***
Belisle is probably equal to Lowry or Leiber, IMO.
However, someone out of Leiber, Tomko, or Wells will probably need to be signed if the Reds don't feel comfortable with letting Cueto hold down the 5 spot.

HokieRed
12-09-2007, 01:18 AM
You can't get Noah Lowry for EE. Giants won't even talk to you about that.

hippie07
12-09-2007, 01:22 AM
I agree with you. However, I think that the Reds will be playing in October even if they get filler for the back end of the rotation. In the NL Central, the Reds are as good as any other team, and better than most.

Why not play out the season with the roster they have plus a few cheap starters. By the time the trading deadline comes around, the Reds will have a good idea if Hamilton and Votto are an everyday players, if Bailey and Cueto are ready for the majors and if Bruce is the stud everyone thinks he is.

Then trade for more pitching if they need it. The biggest problem with trading any of the big five right now, is that so much is unknown about them. Why not wait until more is known about them and what the Reds needs are at that time, and then use them to get whoever the Reds need.

I think the Reds can easily stay in the race until then, regardless of how they perform.

That being said, I do think that if they can get Bedard without giving Bruce, and without giving either both Bailey and Cueto, or both Hamilton and Votto, it would be worth it. But he is the only pitcher that is worth that.

Honestly, I think the Reds have more offensive then they need to get to October baseball, but probably not nearly enough pitching.... WK will make some small moves to improve competition for the back-end of the rotation. If we could overpay w/ offense instead of pitching... I'd be okay w/ overpaying for Bedard.
Votto, EdE, Hamilton for Bedard... obviously 2 out of the 3 would be better, but if it's b/w EdE and Bailey and we're going to do the trade anyways.... I'd do the offensive overpayment.

HokieRed
12-09-2007, 01:27 AM
How about a deal involving Phillips but not involving Bruce, Bailey, or Cueto? In some ways, I'd rather give up Phillips, except that it worsens our right-handed power situation, which can maybe be addressed otherwise. How about Phillips and Hamilton, followed by bringing Mike Cameron here (not that that would make up for Phillips but it would help a bit)?

hippie07
12-09-2007, 01:31 AM
Interview w/ O's assistant GM:

...unless the Reds are willing to part with Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce, Bedard won't land in Cincinnati. Baltimore has offers from at least three clubs that start with a top position player prospect and include a promising starting pitcher or the prospect equivalent of.

Without Bailey or Bruce, Cincinnati can't even get into the conversation, since Baltimore isn't interested in any free agents to be (Dunn), older players (Griffey) and other parts that may not be around or worthy in 2010-2011 (Harang, Arroyo).

Bailey and Phillips gets you Bedard, but that isn't something the Reds should consider.

Bruce and Phillips, neither. Cueto, Votto and Stubbs might get their attention, but in the end the other official offers include better and/or more ready overall talent, and/or include a cheap, all-star level option at a premium position up the middle.

got this quote from the org.... not sure where it comes from though ...

Hamilton/Votto & Phillips for Bedard...???

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 01:31 AM
How about a deal involving Phillips but not involving Bruce, Bailey, or Cueto? In some ways, I'd rather give up Phillips, except that it worsens our right-handed power situation, which can maybe be addressed otherwise. How about Phillips and Hamilton, followed by bringing Mike Cameron here (not that that would make up for Phillips but it would help a bit)?

I don't know about giving up Phillips and Hamilton. Thats like subtracting 60 home runs and nearly 200 RBI from our lineup if both stay heathy. Not to mention great defecne by both.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 01:48 AM
I wish anyone that would suggest Lowry trades was banned.

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 01:53 AM
How about a deal involving Phillips but not involving Bruce, Bailey, or Cueto? In some ways, I'd rather give up Phillips, except that it worsens our right-handed power situation, which can maybe be addressed otherwise. How about Phillips and Hamilton, followed by bringing Mike Cameron here (not that that would make up for Phillips but it would help a bit)?

this is the best idea I have heard so far...

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 01:54 AM
I wish anyone that would suggest Lowry trades was banned.



Good god, he's not that bad. I wouldn't give up a ton for him but damn.

Stephenk29
12-09-2007, 02:00 AM
I can handle them trading Bailey, but not both Bailey and Cueto. Plus we would still have to sign or trade for another starter.

The O's are also willing to trade Roberts. I wonder if we can package him into a deal with Bedard?

Bailey, Gonzo, Votto, Frazier, Hamilton for Bedard and Roberts?

I just looked up an O's blog and the whole world over there is under the impression that he is going to the Dodgers, another team with a ridiculous sum of talented prospects. It's pretty much going to come down to who's willing to part with the most talent. The bidding could get very expensive if we pursue him to the end. Bailey, Votto, Hamilton? If that happens we still pick up an awesome pitcher and still keep Bruce. No guts no glory...

Harang, Bedard, Arroyo, Belisle, ?
EE, Phillips, Roberts, Hatteberg, Dunn, Bruce, Griffey
I think I can live with this every day of the year.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 02:15 AM
Good god, he's not that bad. I wouldn't give up a ton for him but damn.

Hes not any better than anyone in our rotation.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 02:32 AM
Hes not any better than anyone in our rotation.




I refuse to believe that someone that has a 4.03 career ERA and has had an ERA in the 3's in 3 of his 4 major league seasons is not better than Matt Belisle. You can talk about whip or whatever you want but if Noah Lowry were on the Reds today he'd be the #3 pitcher with a chance at being the 2.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 02:35 AM
I refuse to believe that someone that has a 4.03 career ERA and has had an ERA in the 3's in 3 of his 4 major league seasons is not better than Matt Belisle. You can talk about whip or whatever you want but if Noah Lowry were on the Reds today he'd be the #3 pitcher with a chance at being the 2.

He pitches in the NL west... Have you ever seen the parks or the lineups of the NL west?

I think the reds hit more home runs than the whole west combined.

If you really think a whip of 1.55 would stand a chance in this division I dont know what to tell you.

Blue
12-09-2007, 02:36 AM
The cost is too high in terms of talent. We have a good young core of prospects developing, but we don't have the kind of depth to where it makes sense to trade for Bedard. We'd be screwing ourselves for the future, when we'll have no outfield, no 1B, and possibly be in need of a SP because Bedard has left. Its just not worth it long term.

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 02:40 AM
He pitches in the NL west... Have you ever seen the parks or the lineups of the NL west?

I think the reds hit more home runs than the whole west combined.

If you really think a whip of 1.55 would stand a chance in this division I dont know what to tell you.



Well, I admit, I did not know his WHIP was that high, damn. But if the Reds got him for not a lot in return, which they wouldn't because I'm sure after his pretty solid career thus far San Fran would ask alot in return for him, but if the Reds got him I think he'd be an ok pitcher but thats just me.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 02:47 AM
Well, I admit, I did not know his WHIP was that high, damn. But if the Reds got him for not a lot in return, which they wouldn't because I'm sure after his pretty solid career thus far San Fran would ask alot in return for him, but if the Reds got him I think he'd be an ok pitcher but thats just me.

He might be a 5 but his K/BB ratio scares the ever living crap out of me. In a division full of smaller hitter friendly parks I would give up very little for the guy considering his peripherals.

AmarilloRed
12-09-2007, 08:11 AM
Let's try and get back to the subject at hand- a trade for Eric Bedard. I know they are plenty of members who will suggest if we land Bedard, that we might not even need to play the games. If we do get him however, it is likely to seriously deplete our farm system, and there is no guarantee he would re-sign with the Reds after 2009. I would like to know that we have him signed to a LTC before we even consider trading 3 top prospects for Bedard. I happen to think our Big 4 plus Hamilton are very close to contributing to the success of the Reds for a long time, and I would hate to see them moved simply for short-term gain. I happen to think the Tigers really hurt themselves in the long-term, because they traded away all of their best prospects for 2 players who have 1 year deals. I would hate for the Reds to do something similar to their farm system. I know Bedard is a proven player and Bailey and Cueto are just prospects at this point, but one good starting pitcher will not win the division for the Reds next year.

schmidty622
12-09-2007, 08:27 AM
I think we need to hold on to our prospects, Eric Bedard isnt even that good.

crazybob60
12-09-2007, 08:35 AM
Erik Bedard is really good....I would stop at that though. He's not like great, but he is really good. I don't know if he would be our #1 though. Him and Harang would battle for that spot and I believe that that may make Harang an even better pitcher. But honestly I think that these are all pipe dreams because Bedard isn't coming. Isn't the reason why the O's are willing to part with him is because he said he is going to walk after 2009 regardless. If we could sign him longterm then so be it, I would do it as long as we are not giving up the far. Trade Bruce for him -- no way Jose, Hamilton for him -- yes, Cueto -- possibly, Stubbs -- yes, Bailey -- possibly, (mind you, these possiblies are not yes's because it depends on who else is tossed in with him, say if they want Bailey and Cueto then no and no. Also, I truely believe if we are going to see a SP from last year's Orioles in the Reds starting rotation this season it would be Daniel Cabrera. That's just my two cents.

fewfirstchoice
12-09-2007, 09:28 AM
Bedard is very good and woth a package of 2 of the big 4 but not 3.

And yes Bipper that was a serious post.Whats the matter dont like to see stats beside each when one doesnt stack up top the other.

dunner13
12-09-2007, 09:31 AM
In the past Krivsky has seemed to like tejada, I wonder if theres any chance of bringing both bedard and tejada here. A Package of Bailey, Hamilton, EE, and a good prospect might be enough.

kbrake
12-09-2007, 10:44 AM
Bedard is that good. I havent said it in any of my previous post but everything I have said about getting Bedard is under the assumption we can sign him to a LTC. If he insist on testing the market which is possible then I wouldnt trade anything for him.

Maldez
12-09-2007, 10:47 AM
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=Mlb&id=3449

BearcatShane
12-09-2007, 12:01 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20071209/COL09/712090377/


"In fact, there are people in the organization confident that the deal will get done. One rated the chances at 75 percent."

Betterread
12-09-2007, 12:27 PM
I really admire Bedard's talent and would try to acquire him, but there are things to consider.
It is my perception that Bailey and Cueto are premier pitching prospects that are projected to be top of the rotation starters. I could see both of them in the Reds rotation as early as midseason 2008. Trading either of them is unnecessary and risky, trading both is poor jugdement. Having said that, if either one turned out to be as good as Bedard, I'd be very pleased. Since Bailey is closer to the major league rotation (he could even be pencilled in right now) I would prefer dealing Cueto.
(in my opinion) Encarnacion is not going to be a premier 3B in the majors. His fielding and his power are average, but not elite. That makes him tradeable.
Phillips is a premier 2b, but this is not a key fielding position - so that makes him tradeable.
Bruce should be untradeable and I would put Hamilton in that category, too.
Votto plays 1b (not a key fielding position) and does not project to have top-level power - making him tradeable.

My best offer: one pitcher and field player (another prospect could be added - outside of the top 4 and outside the other traded field player's position). I would not trade 3 players from the above list.

tbball10
12-09-2007, 12:49 PM
what is bedard's current contract status?

and eventhough i do not want to trade bailey, he would have to go if we were to land someone like bedard. i would hope we just give up bailey, hamilton and a prospect at the most...

i think bedard is a risk though since his career high in innings pitched is 182. (not that bailey and hamilton are not big risks as well)

mound_patrol
12-09-2007, 01:07 PM
Baily, Phillips, and Edwin for Bedard, Roberts, and tejada. If we have to add a Sam Lecure type prospect I'd do it. I really think this trade would be a possibility with them wanting to salary dump Tejada.

jmac
12-09-2007, 01:28 PM
what is bedard's current contract status?

and eventhough i do not want to trade bailey, he would have to go if we were to land someone like bedard. i would hope we just give up bailey, hamilton and a prospect at the most...

i think bedard is a risk though since his career high in innings pitched is 182. (not that bailey and hamilton are not big risks as well)

Bedard is free agent after two seasons. He has said he will test the waters then "but" Bronson was leaving too when he first got here.
Harang signed an extension and Dunn possibly would like too.
As I stated earlier, winning baseball in Cincy could prompt Bedard to want to stay a little longer.
He hasnt exactly tasted winning baseball where he is, and he might just like what it tastes like enough to stick around.

SMcGavin
12-09-2007, 01:55 PM
One thing not being really mentioned - if we trade for Bedard (and the package includes Bailey, which we all think it will), the Reds are still one SP short for 2008. If the price is really gonna start with Bailey and Hamilton, I'm not sure I do this deal. That's giving up a combined 10-11 years of two guys with huge ceilings for two seasons of Bedard. That would be a pretty ballsy move by the FO, because if they do that deal and then we still miss the playoffs and Bedard leaves via free agency, it will be a disaster.

757690
12-09-2007, 02:01 PM
He's (Lowry's) not any better than anyone in our rotation.

The Reds don't even have a full rotation. They only have four starters with any major league experience, and two of them are Belisle and Bailey, complete unknowns for 2008.

That statement is far more outrageous and worth a ban than stating that the Reds should trade for Lowry.

SMcGavin
12-09-2007, 02:08 PM
The Reds don't even have a full rotation. They only have four starters with any major league experience, and two of them are Belisle and Bailey, complete unknowns for 2008.

That statement is far more outrageous and worth a ban than stating that the Reds should trade for Lowry.

Yeah he's better than the blank spot we have in the #5, but I would take either of Bailey or Belisle over Lowry for 2008. I'd also rather go sign a guy like Tomko then give up somebody with talent for Lowry.

Stephenk29
12-09-2007, 02:14 PM
I think Bedard is that good. 16-5 while playing in the AL East, thats pretty impressive for someone who was shut down for his last 4-5 starts (which were all strictly precautionary BTW). Big strikeout pitcher that will do more than ok in our park. His ERA is also half a run lower than Harang. Am I the only one who thinks he would be the clear cut ace of the staff?

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 04:23 PM
Here are 2 stat lines for 2 pitchers they are Lowry and Belisle.See if ya can tell me whos line is whos.

W-8 L-9 ERA-5.32 HR-26 Inn.-177 K-125 BB- 43

W- 14 L- 8 ERA- 3.92 Inn.- 156 K- 87 BB- 87

Now which stat line would you take if you could choose.I take the 14-8 and 3.92era any day over the W 8-L 9 ERA 5.32.Now dont take this as I dis liek Belisle because I dont.I only posted this to get you damn smart asses to shut the hell up saying Belisle is as good as Lowry because he isnt.This isnt even saying anything about the HR Belisle gave up.hes not the pitcher Lowry is give it up.

Also EE alone may not get you Lowry but say Lowry and a prospect in the B range would.Janish maybe.

Lowry 2007 FIP- 4.88
Belisle 2007 FIP- 4.54

Jay Bruce
12-09-2007, 04:50 PM
Lowry 2007 FIP- 4.88
Belisle 2007 FIP- 4.54

I'll do you one better.

Lowry xFIP- 5.47 in 2007.

Belisle xFIP- 4.32 in 2007.

Basically, Lowry's FIP is decieving, because he was lucky to give up as few homeruns as he did, based on his HR/FB%. On the otherhand, Belisle was HR unlucky, based on the same stat. Both of these can largely be accounted for based on the ballparks they play in.

757690
12-09-2007, 05:31 PM
What a futile argument. Who is better (worse) Belisle or Lowry. Neither are answers to the Reds rotation problems.

Basically the real difference is that Belisle might get better, while Lowry will always be average at best, and probably will get worst.


Still I have to disagree with Jay Bruce that Belisle high HR total can be accounted for based on the ballpark he plays in. I think it mostly can be accounted for him making stupid pitches far too often. If you watched him pitch, you would know that most of his homers were on really bad pitches, and would have been out of any ballpark.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 05:57 PM
What a futile argument. Who is better (worse) Belisle or Lowry. Neither are answers to the Reds rotation problems.

Basically the real difference is that Belisle might get better, while Lowry will always be average at best, and probably will get worst.


Still I have to disagree with Jay Bruce that Belisle high HR total can be accounted for based on the ballpark he plays in. I think it mostly can be accounted for him making stupid pitches far too often. If you watched him pitch, you would know that most of his homers were on really bad pitches, and would have been out of any ballpark.

Like giving Utley a gopher ball in the same spot in back to back at bats.

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 06:46 PM
What a futile argument. Who is better (worse) Belisle or Lowry. Neither are answers to the Reds rotation problems.

Basically the real difference is that Belisle might get better, while Lowry will always be average at best, and probably will get worst.

I can agree with that assesment...

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 07:11 PM
as much as i might regret doing it I would do what ever it takes to get this deal done. We are very close to being a very good team.

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 07:15 PM
as much as i might regret doing it I would do what ever it takes to get this deal done. We are very close to being a very good team.

yet so very close to being a very bad team too...

Stephenk29
12-09-2007, 07:16 PM
Two years in a row Harang has given up 28 HRs. That is two more than Belisle's "high total" of last year. Home Runs given up between Lowry and Belisle doesn't mean a whole lot in my opinion for this argument.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 07:21 PM
yet so very close to being a very bad team too...

Any team that doesnt make the playoffs i bad imo

AmarilloRed
12-09-2007, 07:24 PM
I am beginning to think John Fay is unbalanced when it comes to Eric Bedard and Homer Bailey. He clearly believes Eric Bedard will solve all the organization's problems and lead the Reds to the promised land, and that Homer Bailey will never contribute to the Reds. The Reds may indeed make a trade for Bedard, but I will be very careful in the future on anything John Fay says on either subject.

Stephenk29
12-09-2007, 07:24 PM
Any team that doesnt make the playoffs i bad imo

So last years Mets team was bad?

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 07:25 PM
So last years Mets team was bad?

They finished like an awful team

Stephenk29
12-09-2007, 07:30 PM
They finished like an awful team

True, but they were far from a bad team I would say. Right before that collapse a lot of people had them favorite in the NL.

anyway

BEDARD
Bailey/Hamilton/Maloney perhaps? I would

Trace's Daddy
12-09-2007, 08:11 PM
I would like for Wayne to land Bedard while somehow keeping Homer.

Why Not?
12-09-2007, 08:20 PM
Hey folks, I'm an Orioles fan and stumbled upon this board snooping around for Bedard rumors.

Most people in Baltimore still think the Dodgers are the favorite to land Bedard because of the depth of prospects they have. The Reds have enough to offer but few think they'll be willing to deplete their MLB-ready stock.

I(heart)Freel
12-09-2007, 08:42 PM
Hey folks, I'm an Orioles fan and stumbled upon this board snooping around for Bedard rumors.

Most people in Baltimore still think the Dodgers are the favorite to land Bedard because of the depth of prospects they have. The Reds have enough to offer but few think they'll be willing to deplete their MLB-ready stock.


Slightly outdated perhaps, but when I read this article about the Dodgers' unwillingness to deal its studs, I really got the feeling that the Reds were the frontrunners.

I still do.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AhpmahoUN9utKPps9uk639upu7YF?slug=ti-dodgersgm120407&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

That said, I am warming to the notion of fixing the roto with with cheaper FAs now and then waiting to pay less (likely in salary dumps) at the deadline. Keeps the farm more intact with still an eye toward making a run this year.

Why Not?
12-09-2007, 08:48 PM
Slightly outdated perhaps, but when I read this article about the Dodgers' unwillingness to deal its studs, I really got the feeling that the Reds were the frontrunners.

I still do.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AhpmahoUN9utKPps9uk639upu7YF?slug=ti-dodgersgm120407&prov=yhoo&type=lgns



I think McPhail is still thinking he can pry those guys away from L.A., which is why he hasn't pulled the trigger with Cincy or Seattle. It wouldn't be the first time a GM has publicly stated that a guy is untouchable only to turn around and trade him.

Why Not?
12-09-2007, 08:54 PM
Erik Bedard is really good....I would stop at that though. He's not like great, but he is really good. I don't know if he would be our #1 though. Him and Harang would battle for that spot and I believe that that may make Harang an even better pitcher. But honestly I think that these are all pipe dreams because Bedard isn't coming. Isn't the reason why the O's are willing to part with him is because he said he is going to walk after 2009 regardless. If we could sign him longterm then so be it, I would do it as long as we are not giving up the far. Trade Bruce for him -- no way Jose, Hamilton for him -- yes, Cueto -- possibly, Stubbs -- yes, Bailey -- possibly, (mind you, these possiblies are not yes's because it depends on who else is tossed in with him, say if they want Bailey and Cueto then no and no. Also, I truely believe if we are going to see a SP from last year's Orioles in the Reds starting rotation this season it would be Daniel Cabrera. That's just my two cents.

That's the biggest reason. It also might be a simple case of selling high. Bedard has never thrown 200 innings and his slight frame worries some. I don't think Bedard is a guy who is going to be a stud past age 35 or so.

There is also an assumption that Bedard will wind up in Toronto because he is Canadian and still lives near Ottawa. I don't know how important that really is.

VI_RedsFan
12-09-2007, 09:28 PM
I would do a Bailey, Votto, Maloney, and Stubbs swap for Erik Bedard...and I think the Orioles would too. No way we put both Homer and Cueto in the deal though. After that deal we could see if Dunn would move to 1B to take care of the loss of Votto (maybe give him more $$$ in an extension to entice him into it), sign Mike Cameron to play centerfield, sign a low-tire free agent SP like Lieber, and we would be set.

Harang
Bedard
Arroyo
Belisle
Lieber

LF Hamilton
3B Encarnacion
RF Griffey
1B Dunn
2B Phillips
CF Cameron
SS Gonzalez
C Ross
P

That team right there would be the favorite in the NL Central, hands down.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 09:44 PM
as much as the name sounds good Lieber is a pretty bad option if you ask me.

GoReds33
12-09-2007, 09:50 PM
as much as the name sounds good Lieber is a pretty bad option if you ask me.So does the name Belisle.:)

Bigredfan#1
12-09-2007, 09:54 PM
No way those three. Bailey and Hamilton would be a hard trigger to pull, but maybe.... Votto? No way. I really find it difficult to trade Bailey. We've all ranted about how poor the Reds have been at developing pitchers, and to give up one who's finally at the cusp?

Man do I hate to trade Bailey. He was considered the best or 2nd best pitching prospect just 2 years ago. He could really be special, i think it is a mistake to trade him! I would give up some hitting for Bedard but would really struggle in giving up Bailey or Cueto. JMHO.

kbrake
12-09-2007, 09:54 PM
Belisle is still young and only has one season in the rotation under his belt. I think you will see alot of improvement out of him this season.

kbrake
12-09-2007, 09:55 PM
Man do I hate to trade Bailey. He was considered the best or 2nd best pitching prospect just 2 years ago. He could really be special, i think it is a mistake to trade him! I would give up some hitting for Bedard but would really struggle in giving up Bailey or Cueto. JMHO.

He COULD really be special, well Bedard already is that pitcher. No way you can get Bedard and hold onto Bailey and Cueto. I dont think Reds fans appreciate enough what Erik Bedard has already accomplished in the AL East.

Bip Roberts
12-09-2007, 10:04 PM
So does the name Belisle.:)

Him as our 5 is fine.

hippie07
12-09-2007, 10:06 PM
Hopefully you mean Bailey OR Cueto... I don't think we have to give up both, and I don't think we will.... I'm warming to the idea of Bailey, Hamilton, Votto/EdE... get it done so I sleep easy and quit checking RZ every 3 mins :)

kbrake
12-09-2007, 10:09 PM
I meant you cant expect to hold onto the both of them. Yeah there is no way O's fans can expect both of them and I dont think the do.

Why Not?
12-09-2007, 10:22 PM
I would do a Bailey, Votto, Maloney, and Stubbs swap for Erik Bedard...and I think the Orioles would too.


I think that would be enough, but it will probably depend on what LA and Seattle bring to the table. Balmer's in a position of strength with multiple teams bidding for Bedard. We're hoping one of the teams just goes nuts and hands over their entire farm system.

kfm
12-09-2007, 10:26 PM
This trade really concerns me. I like Bedard, and I know that these trades work out sometimes but how about Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore for Bartolo Colon or how about the Mark Mulder trade that gave Dan Haren away and others. I was really exicted about this trade but Bailey (or Cueto) Hamilton (or Votto) and Maloney for a guy who you probably get for two years tops, and who has never thrown 200 innings on that small frame. I just want to know if this concerns the rest of you. They may be better off going after Haren who is at least under control for a little longer or signing a Carlos Silva and hoping that Bailey and Cueto, are what we think they are. I don't mind trading position players, (excluding Bruce) because the Reds can find and develop those with the best of them, but giving up on young cheap pitching for Bedard concerns me.

AmarilloRed
12-09-2007, 11:34 PM
This trade really concerns me. I like Bedard, and I know that these trades work out sometimes but how about Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore for Bartolo Colon or how about the Mark Mulder trade that gave Dan Haren away and others. I was really exicted about this trade but Bailey (or Cueto) Hamilton (or Votto) and Maloney for a guy who you probably get for two years tops, and who has never thrown 200 innings on that small frame. I just want to know if this concerns the rest of you. They may be better off going after Haren who is at least under control for a little longer or signing a Carlos Silva and hoping that Bailey and Cueto, are what we think they are. I don't mind trading position players, (excluding Bruce) because the Reds can find and develop those with the best of them, but giving up on young cheap pitching for Bedard concerns me.

It does concern me. I am someone who has always favored keeping as many of our our blue chip prospects, and only trading them if the trade will bring us closer to the playoffs. Let's look at each of our prospects + Hamilton. Hamilton is cheap and young , and could be a good hitter with power. He was injury-prone last year, however, so he might be our most tradeable commodity. Votto also is a good hitter with some power, and he really is our only first base prospect with considerable upside. We might wait a long time and have to sign a first base free agent if we did go ahead and trade Votto. Jay Bruce is the best prospect in baseball, and we have 2 outfielders who might leave the Reds after 2008 in Griffey and Dunn. I don't trade Bruce under any circumstances. Bailey and Cueto are legitimate front-end starting pitcher prospects, and I think they should be given a fair chance to develop their potential before we start trading them. I don't mind trading one of these 5(if absolutely necessary), but I would see if we could work out something that won't require us to trade so many of our best prospects

BUTLER REDSFAN
12-09-2007, 11:40 PM
Is this something that is supposed to go down soon or will this stretch out all off season???

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2007, 12:15 AM
Could Hamilton, EE, Maloney, and Stubbs get the job done?

AmarilloRed
12-10-2007, 12:34 AM
Could Hamilton, EE, Maloney, and Stubbs get the job done?

Not a chance.

757690
12-10-2007, 12:53 AM
Could Hamilton, EE, Maloney, and Stubbs get the job done?

talent wise, a good match. But the O's have made it clear they want a #1 pitcher/pitching prospect back for Bedard.

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2007, 12:56 AM
talent wise, a good match. But the O's have made it clear they want a #1 pitcher/pitching prospect back for Bedard.

thanks for the details

AccordinglyReds
12-10-2007, 01:51 AM
I'd be hesitant to give up Bailey + Hamilton + top tier prospect.

As good as year Bedard had last year, 2 years worth isn't worth it to me, honestly.

mlbfan30
12-10-2007, 02:35 AM
According to Tangotiger, Johan Santana is worth an average rookie.
This means technically, if we traded just Hamilton and Maloney, the Orioles would be getting a steal.

schmidty622
12-10-2007, 08:42 AM
Yeah two years of Bedard is not worth having to reload the top part of our minor leagues. Let our pitchers develop so then we can go out and charge way too much for a pitcher and steal someone elses best prospects.

CySeymour
12-10-2007, 10:56 AM
As far as the fear of trading Bailey, I think it's a good idea to keep in mind one of the tride and true Sabermetric sayings: There's no such thing as a pitching prospect.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 11:17 AM
:rolleyes:

HokieRed
12-10-2007, 12:04 PM
Good post over on ORG arguing that supporters of the Bedard trade are mistaking where the Reds are vis-a-vis the need for starting pitching--that the need now is depth, not one guy like Bedard at the expense of another starter (plus other players). I couldn't agree more. I just keep hoping the Dodgers come up with a big package to keep Krivsky from making a big mistake. The year is 2009 and the rotation is Harang, Arroyo, a matured Bailey, Cueto, and either Belisle or Maloney. Actually you'll need all six of those guys plus a couple of others to throw all the innings.

757690
12-10-2007, 12:34 PM
Couldn't agree more. Been saying that for weeks. You need at least 7 healthy starters to start spring training with, in order to compete throughout the season. The Reds currently have 5, if you include Shearn. Scary.

The Reds had 10 guys make multiple starts for them last year (seven making at least 9), and one of them was Saarloos.
Having greater depth will mean that guys like Saarloos will not have to start games for the Reds this year.

This is one case where the Reds need quantity more than they need quality.

bigredbunter
12-10-2007, 12:45 PM
The year is 2009 and the rotation is Harang, Arroyo, a matured Bailey, Cueto, and either Belisle or Maloney. Actually you'll need all six of those guys plus a couple of others to throw all the innings.

and what if Bailey never puts it together, Cueto gets injured after piling up innings on his slight frame, Belisle regresses and Maloney's traded?

BLEEDS
12-10-2007, 12:48 PM
Bailey, Hamilton, and Hatteberg.

Votto is the .300/.375/.500 30-100 guy at 1b we've needed for YEARS!!! I wouldn't trade him, even though the "insiders" say the FO is not high on the guy and his Defense.

YOUNG, POWERFUL, CHEAP-CHEAP-CHEAP for the next 5 years or so.

We have MANY OF-ers, especially if we're going to consider giving Dunn an LTC, so we can afford to give up Hamilton for pitching. NOT Votto.

People say Hatteberg-Keppinger is a good 1B combo - what about Votto/Keppinger?!?!

I see the reasoning for keeping Hatte's option - so we could trade a 1B-man. BUT, it shoudl be HATTE, not Votto.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
12-10-2007, 12:52 PM
and what if Bailey never puts it together, Cueto gets injured after piling up innings on his slight frame, Belisle regresses and Maloney's traded?

Those are four things that could go wrong. Not all of them will. If we trade them all for Bedard, if just one thing happens to him, the Reds are completely screwed.

Odds are better by keeping them all and hopefully half of them will pan out.

BLEEDS
12-10-2007, 01:13 PM
Bailey/Hamilton/Maloney perhaps? I would

Done in a Second!!

Hamilton, as good as he is, is our most tradeable position player IMO. We HAVE OF-ers. We don't have more than one YOUNG prospect at 3B or 1B - the place you look to Differentiate yourself at the Corner Power prospects.

Seriously, HOW MANY people did we run through at 3b the last 5 years or so? You hold on to EdE.

1B - we haven't had anything worth two poops since Sean Casey belted out .915 OPS with 24HR/99RBI's. Votto would probably surpass the OPS and HR totals next year. You hold onto him too.


Hamilton - he's shown potential for power and average, but also potential for injury, at a position of depth. You trade that for a Potential sub 4 ERA #2 SP in a HEART BEAT!!

Bailey's shown potential, but he's definitely not ready for Prime Time. You trade that for a proven commodity any day.

Bedard is the Power lefty SP we haven't had in an EON, and he's just hitting his prime. His career progress looks like Aaron Harang.

I make this deal if I want to WIN, and show that we have the Cohones to go after a REAL Starting Pitcher.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

HokieRed
12-10-2007, 01:40 PM
How about Phillips/Cueto for Bedard? O's might like this because it would enable them to trade either Miggy or Roberts. Disrupts the Reds less. Or maybe even Phillips/Hamilton if they can then work a trade with the Cubs that brings them 2 pitchers. Kepp becomes the everyday second baseman and we get Cameron to give us a year or two in center. Look at the two deals (ours and the two pitcher deal being mentioned with the Cubs). They get two arms and two good young hitters (they sensibly understand depth is always an issue) and also the chance to move Miggy for something if they can find a taker. We'll see if K has the cojones to hang on for a trade of value for value or whether he's like most of the people on these boards--falling all over themselves to figure out how much we have to give the Orioles.

mroby85
12-10-2007, 01:54 PM
How about Phillips/Cueto for Bedard? O's might like this because it would enable them to trade either Miggy or Roberts. Disrupts the Reds less. Or maybe even Phillips/Hamilton if they can then work a trade with the Cubs that brings them 2 pitchers. Kepp becomes the everyday second baseman and we get Cameron to give us a year or two in center. Look at the two deals (ours and the two pitcher deal being mentioned with the Cubs). They get two arms and two good young hitters (they sensibly understand depth is always an issue) and also the chance to move Miggy for something if they can find a taker. We'll see if K has the cojones to hang on for a trade of value for value or whether he's like most of the people on these boards--falling all over themselves to figure out how much we have to give the Orioles.

I'm sure the O's would love the idea of phillips, but that would be an idiotic deal for the reds to make.

BLEEDS
12-10-2007, 01:57 PM
How about THIS, from the ORG:

Originally Posted by Kc61
Professional sports today is not a long-term business. You never know the mix of players you will have in three years. In three years, Adam Dunn may be gone, Griffey will be gone, and who knows if Harang will be a Red. And even if Dunn and Harang are still Reds, who knows if they will be healthy and productive that far in the future.

Stockpiling prospects today is, in part, a way to trade for veteran players. The problem here is that folks are in love with the projected future of young minor leaguers. But history shows that these things often don't pan out.

Bedard has two years left. If he then leaves, and if there is a need, the Reds can go into the free agent market and get another pitcher. Or maybe at that point the Reds will have other great pitchers, or maybe the team will be terrible and it won't make sense to replace Bedard.

All I know is that folks are exaggerating the value of these young kids. The only one who, to me, seems to have really extraordinary value is Bruce, who probably should be a keeper.

Bailey is a young pitcher who projects well but has command issues and "second and third pitch" issues. Hamilton has tremendous ability but there are health concerns and he didn't hit lefties well. Votto projects as a good hitting first baseman, but perhaps not a powerhouse as one might want at first. Cueto probably has a good future but may not be that "projectable" since he doesn't have the classic frame.

All these guys are very good prospects, it would be nice to keep them, but for when? For a day in the future when maybe Harang, Arroyo and Dunn are gone?

At some point, you have to go for it. Maybe Bedard is the wrong choice, that's entirely possible, but Reds recent history shows that picking up guys nobody else wants isn't usually a way to have success.


2 years of Bedard, at any cost, is worth trading some EXCESS parts for, IMO. Heck, if we WIN he might want to stay around.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

hippie07
12-10-2007, 02:13 PM
Phillips is great -I love the kid, he's a fan favorite and his defense is superb, but even though his offense is good... it's simply more of what the Reds already have tons of... power hitting low OBP. I could live w/ Kepp at 2nd next year (or maybe WK picks up another BP off the trash heap). Kepp gives us less defensive and power, but I'm pleased w/ getting a high OBP guy in the lineup.

I also agree about Cameron... he'd be another AGon at GABP, excellent D and see a real increase in his offensive numbers hitting in Cincy (rather have Rios, but..)

Obviously, no sane person would chose Kepp over Phillips... but if we're going to snag a guy like Bedard to solidify the rotation, I'd be up for any variation of a trade that leaves us w/ a little less offense, but we keep our pitching. Losing Phillips - although painful, may allow us to keep Bailey... which would be great.

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2007, 02:21 PM
Phillips is great -I love the kid, he's a fan favorite and his defense is superb, but even though his offense is good... it's simply more of what the Reds already have tons of... power hitting low OBP. I could live w/ Kepp at 2nd next year (or maybe WK picks up another BP off the trash heap). Kepp gives us less defensive and power, but I'm pleased w/ getting a high OBP guy in the lineup.

I also agree about Cameron... he'd be another AGon at GABP, excellent D and see a real increase in his offensive numbers hitting in Cincy (rather have Rios, but..)

Obviously, no sane person would chose Kepp over Phillips... but if we're going to snag a guy like Bedard to solidify the rotation, I'd be up for any variation of a trade that leaves us w/ a little less offense, but we keep our pitching. Losing Phillips - although painful, may allow us to keep Bailey... which would be great.

bingo

hippie07
12-10-2007, 02:22 PM
How about THIS, from the ORG:

Originally Posted by Kc61
Professional sports today is not a long-term business. You never know the mix of players you will have in three years. In three years, Adam Dunn may be gone, Griffey will be gone, and who knows if Harang will be a Red. And even if Dunn and Harang are still Reds, who knows if they will be healthy and productive that far in the future.

Stockpiling prospects today is, in part, a way to trade for veteran players. The problem here is that folks are in love with the projected future of young minor leaguers. But history shows that these things often don't pan out.

Bedard has two years left. If he then leaves, and if there is a need, the Reds can go into the free agent market and get another pitcher. Or maybe at that point the Reds will have other great pitchers, or maybe the team will be terrible and it won't make sense to replace Bedard.

All I know is that folks are exaggerating the value of these young kids. The only one who, to me, seems to have really extraordinary value is Bruce, who probably should be a keeper.

Bailey is a young pitcher who projects well but has command issues and "second and third pitch" issues. Hamilton has tremendous ability but there are health concerns and he didn't hit lefties well. Votto projects as a good hitting first baseman, but perhaps not a powerhouse as one might want at first. Cueto probably has a good future but may not be that "projectable" since he doesn't have the classic frame.

All these guys are very good prospects, it would be nice to keep them, but for when? For a day in the future when maybe Harang, Arroyo and Dunn are gone?

At some point, you have to go for it. Maybe Bedard is the wrong choice, that's entirely possible, but Reds recent history shows that picking up guys nobody else wants isn't usually a way to have success.


2 years of Bedard, at any cost, is worth trading some EXCESS parts for, IMO. Heck, if we WIN he might want to stay around.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AGREE!!!! The only caveat is that we're a "smaller" market team... but that only means, IMO, that we should target guys like Bedard who we can get for 2 more years at a cheaper rate instead of guys like Santana and Peavy.

If WK and the braintrust think we have a shot at winning next year, then I have no problem w/ trading prospects for proven guys.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 03:03 PM
I think a deal can be made without including Phillips. Why include him when we really don't have to. Bailey and Hamilton are the most obvious candidates. Hell throw in two more prospects doesn't matter who (other than Votto, Cueto, Bruce) and get it done already. That gives you a win now in the next 3 years mentality while still keeping some key pieces for the future. Everybody's mentality gets satisfied there. Sign a Lieber type till Cueto can be given his shot and the rotation is set.

I(heart)Freel
12-10-2007, 03:04 PM
Couple thoughts as I check and recheck the RZone every hour or so to see if anything transpired.

Does anyone else see the writing on the wall for moving Dunn to first? If Votto is on the block, it opens up that possibility. Talk about corner power. And we know Kriv loves a defense-minded outfield. Could also open that spot for Bruce if the organization thinks he's ready.

Point numero dos: while I respect and certainly understand the viewpoints about the need for pitching depth and that one Bedard does not solve that issue, I also think the FO might be looking ahead to the post season a bit. Because we all know the Central is winnable. Hell, our crummy 2007 squad was still in the race on August 28. So maybe the thinking is, we'll swing about 15 games or so over last year just with a great number two starter and a real set-up/closer tandem.

The difference between making the playoffs (especially in the Central) and making it past the first round is a solid 1-2-3 roto.

Bedard cures that. Maybe that's why he's being targeted so much.

Terps
12-10-2007, 03:18 PM
O's fan here. Nice site :)

Everything I've read about MacPhail indicates that he's not going to let go of Erik for anything less than 2 studs and another prospect. To me, realistically that means Bailey, Votto, and one more. Some O's fans want that +1 to be Cueto or Hamilton, but I'm a little more realistic.

Anyone who isn't sold on Bedard just hasn't seen him pitch. That's fine; I've never seen Harang pitch. That's the nature of things. But don't sell him short. And don't be scared off by his lack of innings. That's a good thing for the team that gets him. Shutting him down last season was partially a precautionary measure. We were out of it anyways. If the Reds get Bedard, they automatically have an ace. It's scary to think what he'd do in the NL. And in the central, just getting Bedard I think catapults the Reds into the favorite spot. I could see the Cy young coming down to Bedard and Peavy for years to come. When he gets on a roll and starts mowing down 12-15 in a row, it's a thing of beauty.

I think if any team can afford to trade for Bedard, while still maintaining one of the best farms in the game, it's the Reds. The Dodgers and Mariners have the players too, but not quite the "leftovers" (Bruce, Cueto, etc.) the Reds would have. If one of those teams antes up, he'll get traded. If not, we'll just throw money at him and resign him. That's one thing we've got lots of.

Jefferson24
12-10-2007, 03:31 PM
Let's assume we would have to include Hamilton in the deal to get it done. What does that do to our outfield in 2009? Bruce would be there but I doubt Dunn would be (too expensive) and Griffey will probably be bought out (also too expensive).

Going for Bedard means lets win now. Should something happed like an injury to Bedard, Harang or Arroyo then we are toast. I think it puts us too far out on a limb. Lets let Bailey and Cueto develop and compete with our own guys.

gedred69
12-10-2007, 03:58 PM
Let's assume we would have to include Hamilton is the deal to get it done. What does that do to our outfield in 2009? Bruce would be there but I doubt Dunn would be (too expensive) and Griffey will probably be bought out (also too expensive).

Going for Bedard means lets win now. Should something happed like an injury to Bedard, Harang or Arroyo then we are toast. I think it puts us too far out on a limb. Lets let Bailey and Cueto develop and compete with our own guys.

I agree on Bailey and Cueto. Why trade away the 1st 2 home-grown pitchers to show serious promise since Browning!

bigredbunter
12-10-2007, 04:12 PM
Those are four things that could go wrong. Not all of them will. If we trade them all for Bedard, if just one thing happens to him, the Reds are completely screwed.

Odds are better by keeping them all and hopefully half of them will pan out.

I get what you're saying and part of me agrees with it (and I would love to see even two of the top 4 develop into perennial all-stars)---If the Reds play the waiting game and pin their hopes on '09 they run the risk of not developing a pitcher anywhere near Bedard--Then where does the timeframe stand? It just always seems like the timeframe is two years from now, rather than next year.

hippie07
12-10-2007, 04:42 PM
Let's assume we would have to include Hamilton in the deal to get it done. What does that do to our outfield in 2009? Bruce would be there but I doubt Dunn would be (too expensive) and Griffey will probably be bought out (also too expensive).

Going for Bedard means lets win now. Should something happed like an injury to Bedard, Harang or Arroyo then we are toast. I think it puts us too far out on a limb. Lets let Bailey and Cueto develop and compete with our own guys.

I don't think the "what will happen to our outfield" argument is really a big concern.

If Hamilton goes... we replace him w/ Cameron (go w/ more defense or Hopper/Freel)
Next Year, Dunn & Griffey may or may not be gone... Bruce can replace one of them ... Votto can play left if need be... but if not its really easy to fill outfield holes .. for instance, Kevin Mench is currently on the scrap heap.

I'd much rather be scrambling to plug outfield holes than pitching holes.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 04:52 PM
I'd much rather be scrambling to plug outfield holes than pitching holes.

:beerme:

Its much easier to get a hold of sufficient outfielders opposed to top of the line Starting pitchers.

Lots of things change in a short period of time as well. Remember when Felipe Lopez was the SS of the future? What if we trade Bailey for Bedard and then next year someone is begging for Dunn's bat? Dunn could land us a top OF prospect or whoever. I think we can only take one thing at a time. Bedard's availability is huge, we should get him as long as the price isn't to ridiculous.

Handofdeath
12-10-2007, 05:06 PM
:beerme:

Its much easier to get a hold of sufficient outfielders opposed to top of the line Starting pitchers.

Yes, but what qualifies as sufficient and what will it cost? As much as I have been critical of Adam Dunn, he's one of the top power hitters in baseball and he plays every day. This season he will make just 1 million more than Jose Guillen. There's something very wrong with that.

HokieRed
12-10-2007, 05:09 PM
Of course the question is price. I'd be dangling Phillips as the prime part of the deal in order to protect, if at all possible, both Bailey and Cueto. That's called dealing from strength with the goal being a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bedard, Bailey, and Cueto. Remember the Orioles have reasons to deal Bedard and to do it now. The clock's running on him. He's not reupping with Baltimore. They've got two years of non-contention on their hands, and he's not going to make one bit of difference in that one way or the other. If you can get the rotation I just mentioned, Belisle becomes your sixth and Maloney your seventh. Then you've got potential and depth. Then you might even have a chance to win something that matters, not just that annual derby to see who's become the most incompetent, the NL Central. But if you are going to make a good deal, you have to be willing to walk away.

Hondo
12-10-2007, 05:18 PM
Give up the Good Prospects for Santana.

Thankya

roby
12-10-2007, 05:20 PM
Of course the question is price. I'd be dangling Phillips as the prime part of the deal in order to protect, if at all possible, both Bailey and Cueto. That's called dealing from strength with the goal being a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bedard, Bailey, and Cueto. Remember the Orioles have reasons to deal Bedard and to do it now. The clock's running on him. He's not reupping with Baltimore. They've got two years of non-contention on their hands, and he's not going to make one bit of difference in that one way or the other. If you can get the rotation I just mentioned, Belisle becomes your sixth and Maloney your seventh. Then you've got potential and depth. Then you might even have a chance to win something that matters, not just that annual derby to see who's become the most incompetent, the NL Central. But if you are going to make a good deal, you have to be willing to walk away.

You can't possibly make a good deal if you include Brandon Philips! He is THE face of this franchise for many years to come. He will soon develope into a superstar. If Philips has to be included (which I don't believe he does) don't make the deal.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 05:22 PM
Yes, but what qualifies as sufficient and what will it cost? As much as I have been critical of Adam Dunn, he's one of the top power hitters in baseball and he plays every day. This season he will make just 1 million more than Jose Guillen. There's something very wrong with that.

Compared to the Starting pitchers that the Red could get in some way this year Bedard is among the best possible on a limited list. Aces aren't available very often. The only other pitcher available to the Reds that would be just as big of an impact as Bedard would probably be Haren, and he's rumored to be more expensive.

Outfielders on the other hand included Guillen, Fukodome, Cameron, and all the posibilities through trade (Mathews?)


If Guillen makes just a million less than we can easily find guys like him to replace Dunn. Since Guillen is an example: 25 points higher on the average and roughly around the same RBIs. Less homeruns but exponentially greater in the field. Collectively as a team we would be much better.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 05:24 PM
Give up the Good Prospects for Santana.

Thankya

We would have Santana for one year and then be unable to afford his 20 million dollar a year requirements. That's if he decides to stay here on top of that. That would be a complete waste of our prospects.

Handofdeath
12-10-2007, 05:32 PM
Of course the question is price. I'd be dangling Phillips as the prime part of the deal in order to protect, if at all possible, both Bailey and Cueto. That's called dealing from strength with the goal being a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bedard, Bailey, and Cueto. Remember the Orioles have reasons to deal Bedard and to do it now. The clock's running on him. He's not reupping with Baltimore. They've got two years of non-contention on their hands, and he's not going to make one bit of difference in that one way or the other. If you can get the rotation I just mentioned, Belisle becomes your sixth and Maloney your seventh. Then you've got potential and depth. Then you might even have a chance to win something that matters, not just that annual derby to see who's become the most incompetent, the NL Central. But if you are going to make a good deal, you have to be willing to walk away.


The only problem is the Orioles will have to move either Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, or Tejeda to have a place for Phillips to play which will not be easy. I'm not sure the Reds can swing a trade for Bedard without giving up a pitcher.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 05:46 PM
New Question: Say the O's want Phillips, how much would it take for us to get Roberts in on the deal? He would solve our lead off issues.

Bip Roberts
12-10-2007, 05:48 PM
Oh well i got my 1975 WS dvd collection today. Im all trade talked out until i have watched every minute of the set.

Hondo
12-10-2007, 05:49 PM
We would have Santana for one year and then be unable to afford his 20 million dollar a year requirements. That's if he decides to stay here on top of that. That would be a complete waste of our prospects.



That is why you have that 72 hour window to Negotiate a LTC.

Thanks

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 05:55 PM
That is why you have that 72 hour window to Negotiate a LTC.

Thanks

True. The price will still be outrageous though. We' wouldn't be able to afford him.

gomuskies
12-10-2007, 05:56 PM
"New Question: Say the O's want Phillips, how much would it take for us to get Roberts in on the deal? He would solve our lead off issues."

no way no how, phillips is a budding star...30-30...gold glove d, roberts is a good speedy 2 bagger, phillips is a legit powersource and will match the sb #'s as he continues to become a better baserunner

phillips is a stud
650 30 .288 94 107 32

while roberts...
621 12 .290 57 103 50

is one demensional

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 06:03 PM
I'm not saying Roberts is better, Phillips is clearly on the rise. If it helped us get Bedard, and we got Roberts back in return, we'd pick up a lead off hitter and fairly good 2nd baseman. Roberts hits around 40 doubles a year as well. I wonder how many of those turn into HRs in Great American?

Bailey, Hamilton, Phillips...?
4
Bedard/Roberts...?

If something were along those lines I'd probably at least think about it.l

Hondo
12-10-2007, 06:21 PM
To get Bedard, I would like the Reds to take on Miguel Tejada's Contract the same way the Red Sox took on Mike Lowell's contract to get Josh Beckett last year. That worked out well for the Sox...

Thanks

Handofdeath
12-10-2007, 06:34 PM
To get Bedard, I would like the Reds to take on Miguel Tejada's Contract the same way the Red Sox took on Mike Lowell's contract to get Josh Beckett last year. That worked out well for the Sox...

Thanks

Taking on Tejeda's contract might just be the way to get Bedard. The Orioles want out from under that contract bad. As crazy as it might sound, I think he might make a fair 1B for the Reds.

AmarilloRed
12-10-2007, 06:49 PM
O's fan here. Nice site :)

Everything I've read about MacPhail indicates that he's not going to let go of Erik for anything less than 2 studs and another prospect. To me, realistically that means Bailey, Votto, and one more. Some O's fans want that +1 to be Cueto or Hamilton, but I'm a little more realistic.

Anyone who isn't sold on Bedard just hasn't seen him pitch. That's fine; I've never seen Harang pitch. That's the nature of things. But don't sell him short. And don't be scared off by his lack of innings. That's a good thing for the team that gets him. Shutting him down last season was partially a precautionary measure. We were out of it anyways. If the Reds get Bedard, they automatically have an ace. It's scary to think what he'd do in the NL. And in the central, just getting Bedard I think catapults the Reds into the favorite spot. I could see the Cy young coming down to Bedard and Peavy for years to come. When he gets on a roll and starts mowing down 12-15 in a row, it's a thing of beauty.

I think if any team can afford to trade for Bedard, while still maintaining one of the best farms in the game, it's the Reds. The Dodgers and Mariners have the players too, but not quite the "leftovers" (Bruce, Cueto, etc.) the Reds would have. If one of those teams antes up, he'll get traded. If not, we'll just throw money at him and resign him. That's one thing we've got lots of.

I checked out the Orioles first base situation, and I could see why they would insist on Votto. Millar and Huff are both good first baseman, but are both over the age of 30. They really are in the same situation the Reds are in, needing a talented first baseman with upside who is fairly young. As for the Orioles chances of re-signing Bedard, I am not sure he is willing to re-sign with the Orioles. I do appreciate you giving us your take on the situation, however.

Terps
12-10-2007, 06:57 PM
Taking on Tejeda's contract might just be the way to get Bedard. The Orioles want out from under that contract bad. As crazy as it might sound, I think he might make a fair 1B for the Reds.
Not sure where you got that idea. The Orioles could care less about Tejada's (rather reasonable) contract. They are just looking to get younger.

TheBigLebowski
12-10-2007, 07:01 PM
If getting Bedard hinges upon us taking on Tejada's salary we can all forget it. No way, no how.

ChatterRed
12-10-2007, 07:02 PM
O's fan here. Nice site :)

Everything I've read about MacPhail indicates that he's not going to let go of Erik for anything less than 2 studs and another prospect. To me, realistically that means Bailey, Votto, and one more. Some O's fans want that +1 to be Cueto or Hamilton, but I'm a little more realistic.

Anyone who isn't sold on Bedard just hasn't seen him pitch. That's fine; I've never seen Harang pitch. That's the nature of things. But don't sell him short. And don't be scared off by his lack of innings. That's a good thing for the team that gets him. Shutting him down last season was partially a precautionary measure. We were out of it anyways. If the Reds get Bedard, they automatically have an ace. It's scary to think what he'd do in the NL. And in the central, just getting Bedard I think catapults the Reds into the favorite spot. I could see the Cy young coming down to Bedard and Peavy for years to come. When he gets on a roll and starts mowing down 12-15 in a row, it's a thing of beauty.

I think if any team can afford to trade for Bedard, while still maintaining one of the best farms in the game, it's the Reds. The Dodgers and Mariners have the players too, but not quite the "leftovers" (Bruce, Cueto, etc.) the Reds would have. If one of those teams antes up, he'll get traded. If not, we'll just throw money at him and resign him. That's one thing we've got lots of.


If Josh Hamilton had been in the minors last year, he would have been the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Under normal situations, a guy who hasn't played baseball in 2 or 3 years, would have been in the minors.......but it ended up being a success story from nowhere. It's almost like the Reds have two #1 prospects in all of baseball. Bailey is considered a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

Honestly, I think the O's are stupid not to take Hamilton and Bailey in trade for Bedard. And I think the Reds are stupid to give them much more. I might offer Maloney as the third player, but I don't want to start tearing up our position players we have right now including Bruce taking over for Hamilton. Nor do I want to give up both Bailey and Cueto.

I would consider swapping EE for Tejada, included in the Bedard trade if it helps pry away Bedard, if the entire trade was Hamilton, Bailey, Maloney, EE for Bedard, Tejada.

People think the O's would be crazy to do that deal? I think the Reds would be crazy to offer much more. The Reds would be destroying all that Wayne has established at the position players in the last few years including the minors for one pitcher. And if the asking price destroys our minors, position players, future pitching.........it is too much in my opinion.

Stephenk29
12-10-2007, 07:04 PM
Throw them Edwin and put Tejada at 3B. This is rather unlikely though on top of being costly. I'd like to stay somewhat young as well. No thanks.

Terps
12-10-2007, 07:04 PM
If Josh Hamilton had been in the minors last year, he would have been the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Under normal situations, a guy who hasn't played baseball in 2 or 3 years, would have been in the minors.......but it ended up being a success story from nowhere. It's almost like the Reds have two #1 prospects in all of baseball. Bailey is considered a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

Honestly, I think the O's are stupid not to take Hamilton and Bailey in trade for Bedard. And I think the Reds are stupid to give them much more. I might offer Maloney as the third player, but I don't want to start tearing up our position players we have right now including Bruce taking over for Hamilton. Nor do I want to give up both Bailey and Cueto.

I would consider swapping EE for Tejada, included in the Bedard trade if it helps pry away Bedard, if the entire trade was Hamilton, Bailey, Maloney, EE for Bedard, Tejada.

People think the O's would be crazy to do that deal? I think the Reds would be crazy to offer much more. The Reds would be destroying all that Wayne has established at the position players in the last few years including the minors for one pitcher. And if the asking price destroys our minors, position players, future pitching.........it is too much in my opinion.I wouldn't blame the Reds for wanting to hold onto their plethora of studs (one of whom is not Hamilton. He's 26 and hasn't been a prospect for years.) If that's the case, the O's would happily deal Bedard to the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Mariners, I'd think.

ChatterRed
12-10-2007, 07:26 PM
The Dodgers didn't pull the trigger on the Cabrera deal, which was better, IMO. I seriously doubt they pull the trigger on this one. They're more in love with their prospects than the Reds are.

The Cards might do it, but they don't have much to trade.

Honestly, the Reds have about the best minor league prospects in all of baseball. Dealing with anyone else may get your more prospects, but definitely less quality in return. So go ahead.

Handofdeath
12-10-2007, 07:55 PM
Not sure where you got that idea. The Orioles could care less about Tejada's (rather reasonable) contract. They are just looking to get younger.

I got the idea from several places. I do believe the Orioles want to get rid of his contract because of his declining production. I hardly think that a 31 year old shortstop is old.

kaldaniels
12-10-2007, 08:45 PM
Maybe I should be the first one to say this...

I have never seen Bedard pitch. His numbers look outstanding from 2007, and good in 2006. I can see the stats.

But other than that, we are looking at a guy who's never pitched more than 200 IP, and has less than 3 years of meaningful stats if you ask me.

Does that qualify him as a staff ace??? I don't know, like I said....I've never seen the guy pitch. Anyone with real insight out there...also, anyone in the same boat as me having never seen the guy???

Hondo
12-10-2007, 08:54 PM
You don't need to trade Hamilton to get Bedard. If the Reds assume Tejada's Salary, that is why the O's will take less for Bedard.

Tejada & Bedard to Cincinnati

Bailey & Edwim & a 2nd Tier Guy

The Orioles want to DUMP Miguel Tejada's Salary. Thats the only reason for them to deal Bedard.

Thanks

Terps
12-10-2007, 09:01 PM
Maybe I should be the first one to say this...

I have never seen Bedard pitch. His numbers look outstanding from 2007, and good in 2006. I can see the stats.

But other than that, we are looking at a guy who's never pitched more than 200 IP, and has less than 3 years of meaningful stats if you ask me.

Does that qualify him as a staff ace??? I don't know, like I said....I've never seen the guy pitch. Anyone with real insight out there...also, anyone in the same boat as me having never seen the guy???

I've seen every start of his ML career.. His abilities are in a league that includes only the Santanas, Peaveys, and Becketts of this game. He is "young for his age," getting something of a late start in his ML career due to tommy john in the minors. At his best, he can be absolutely, flat out, dominant. I'm talking about mowing down 15-20 in a row. Take a look at his 2007 game log, and see how many games of 10+ ks he had. Take a look at his stats against some of the best offenses in the game in NYY and Bos. Take a look at his Jul. 7th game versus Texas. There are only 2 or 3 other pitchers I'd say this about in the league, but Bedard is filthy. At his best, he's the best in the game. At his worst, he goes 6 and allows 4.

His oblique injury last season was nothing, and on a contending team, I think he would have kept pitching.

Why Not?
12-10-2007, 09:07 PM
You don't need to trade Hamilton to get Bedard. If the Reds assume Tejada's Salary, that is why the O's will take less for Bedard.

Tejada & Bedard to Cincinnati

Bailey & Edwim & a 2nd Tier Guy

The Orioles want to DUMP Miguel Tejada's Salary. Thats the only reason for them to deal Bedard.

Thanks


Respectfually, you've got it all wrong.

Tejada's salary isn't a problem for Baltimore, no problem at all. The Orioles would have ramped up their payroll again last season if they could lure any free agents. The Orioles need to rebuild a broken team. They need prospects and the way to get them is by trading players of value.

Bedard is being shopped because he shows no sign of wanting to extend his stay in Baltimore beyond 2009 and we aren't going to compete before then anyway.

Tejada is being shopped because A) he can bring back prospects and B) he's considered part of a problem clubhouse.

RedsFanWC
12-10-2007, 09:09 PM
The problem with dealing Bailey to the O's is that Bailey is not a prospect who will be in the minors he is being counted on to pitch in the rotation. What you are essentially trading for is the improvement of Bedard over Bailey for the next two years. In exchange you are giving up the rest of the control you would have over Bailey (3+ years) plus whatever other position players you might send such as Hamilton or Votto.

Is that worth it? Are Hamilton and/or Votto worth the difference between Bedard and Bailey for the next two years? To trade pitching for pitching doesnt make sense for the Reds or for anybody for that matter. The Reds dont have to make a trade, they can hang on to their prospects let them develop and become a better team, Baltimore has to trade Bedard because that is the only way to improve their team.

I would rather trade Bruce to the Giants for Cain or Lincecum than send Bailey, Votto/Hamilton and a prospect to the O's for Bedard.

Hondo
12-10-2007, 10:03 PM
Respectfually, you've got it all wrong.

Tejada's salary isn't a problem for Baltimore, no problem at all. The Orioles would have ramped up their payroll again last season if they could lure any free agents. The Orioles need to rebuild a broken team. They need prospects and the way to get them is by trading players of value.

Bedard is being shopped because he shows no sign of wanting to extend his stay in Baltimore beyond 2009 and we aren't going to compete before then anyway.

Tejada is being shopped because A) he can bring back prospects and B) he's considered part of a problem clubhouse.


I understand what you Posted. But tell me why the Trade with the Angels didn't go down last year and why it hasn't materialized this year?

Thanks

Terps
12-10-2007, 10:10 PM
I understand what you Posted. But tell me why the Trade with the Angels didn't go down last year and why it hasn't materialized this year?

ThanksThe trade with the Angels didn't go down because we declined it... stupidly. We had a different GM then. The same GMs that signed him. It's not happening right now because it's not mid-season, the Angels aren't in the thick of a division race, and with Hunter in the fold, their situation has changed. And, quite frankly, Tejada's defense did suffer last year.

As an O's fan, I understand the temptation to just trade everyone right now, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hold onto Tejada for the first half of the season, let him build back his value (no reason to think he won't) and trade him at the deadline.

ChatterRed
12-10-2007, 10:46 PM
The problem with dealing Bailey to the O's is that Bailey is not a prospect who will be in the minors he is being counted on to pitch in the rotation. What you are essentially trading for is the improvement of Bedard over Bailey for the next two years. In exchange you are giving up the rest of the control you would have over Bailey (3+ years) plus whatever other position players you might send such as Hamilton or Votto.

Is that worth it? Are Hamilton and/or Votto worth the difference between Bedard and Bailey for the next two years? To trade pitching for pitching doesnt make sense for the Reds or for anybody for that matter. The Reds dont have to make a trade, they can hang on to their prospects let them develop and become a better team, Baltimore has to trade Bedard because that is the only way to improve their team.

I would rather trade Bruce to the Giants for Cain or Lincecum than send Bailey, Votto/Hamilton and a prospect to the O's for Bedard.


It's worth it at a reasonable price. I agree that some of our prospects will bloom into solid major leaguers. But there is a good chance that a few of them are overrated and won't be everything the hype thinks they will be in the majors.

I agree that we shouldn't give up the entire farm. I'd like to see a few players come from our minors now and then to encourage me that the farm system is getting better.

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:19 PM
The trade with the Angels didn't go down because we declined it... stupidly. We had a different GM then. The same GMs that signed him. It's not happening right now because it's not mid-season, the Angels aren't in the thick of a division race, and with Hunter in the fold, their situation has changed. And, quite frankly, Tejada's defense did suffer last year.

As an O's fan, I understand the temptation to just trade everyone right now, but I wouldn't mind seeing us hold onto Tejada for the first half of the season, let him build back his value (no reason to think he won't) and trade him at the deadline.

I thought Tejada was the one who wanted to be traded?

If you guys are pushing Bedard because he doesn't want to be there in 2 years, what makes you think Tejada is going to stay around when he wants to go now?

IMO, the only reason talks haven't started with the Angels over Tejada is because the O's are waiting to see what they get for Bedard.

The Angels shot themselves in the foot by trading for Garland before they sealed the deal for Cabrera. The O's don't want to make the same mistake.

TheBigLebowski
12-10-2007, 11:27 PM
The problem with dealing Bailey to the O's is that Bailey is not a prospect who will be in the minors he is being counted on to pitch in the rotation. What you are essentially trading for is the improvement of Bedard over Bailey for the next two years. In exchange you are giving up the rest of the control you would have over Bailey (3+ years) plus whatever other position players you might send such as Hamilton or Votto.

Is that worth it? Are Hamilton and/or Votto worth the difference between Bedard and Bailey for the next two years? To trade pitching for pitching doesnt make sense for the Reds or for anybody for that matter. The Reds dont have to make a trade, they can hang on to their prospects let them develop and become a better team, Baltimore has to trade Bedard because that is the only way to improve their team.

I would rather trade Bruce to the Giants for Cain or Lincecum than send Bailey, Votto/Hamilton and a prospect to the O's for Bedard.



I agree with most of what you posted here. I would much rather keep Bailey/Votto/Cueto/Bruce (God forbid) than acquire Bedard. The only thing I disagree with is trading Bruce for Cain. Ugh. Lincecum I'd be fine with although I am generally loathe to any and all trades involving Mr. Bruce.

TN Red Fan
12-10-2007, 11:33 PM
WK needs to make sure he doesn't get locked into Bedard.

Bedard is a good pitcher, but he'll likely be gone in two years. We're already better than last year because our bullpen will be much improved. Plus, we weren't as bad as our record last year, anyway.

By '09, a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Belise will likely be as strong as Harang, Bedard, Arroyo, Belise, ???? would be this year. No reason to sell-out the lineup or the future to get Bedard.

We're in good position to make a run this year, but have the prospects where we don't have to.

Why Not?
12-10-2007, 11:56 PM
I thought Tejada was the one who wanted to be traded?

If you guys are pushing Bedard because he doesn't want to be there in 2 years, what makes you think Tejada is going to stay around when he wants to go now?

IMO, the only reason talks haven't started with the Angels over Tejada is because the O's are waiting to see what they get for Bedard.

The Angels shot themselves in the foot by trading for Garland before they sealed the deal for Cabrera. The O's don't want to make the same mistake.

Tejada has asked for a trade in the past, then taken it back. He's a nut.

I think you're right that Bedard will likely be the first domino to fall because he'll bring the most in return. Nobody thinks Tejada is going to re-sign in Baltimore. He'll be pushing 35 anyway, so I don't think we would even make the attempt.

Why Not?
12-10-2007, 11:59 PM
I understand what you Posted. But tell me why the Trade with the Angels didn't go down last year and why it hasn't materialized this year?

Thanks

Different front office with different ideas on how to build the team.

Now I think we're just waiting for the best offer. MacPhail has a reputation of being very patient in negotiations. I suspect he also wants to see what we get back for Bedard, as that may dictate our needs/demands in other trades.

*BaseClogger*
12-11-2007, 12:02 AM
These trades appear to be very important for MacPhail. The Orioles are very bad, and must trade Bedard and get a good haul if they ever wanna be any good this century...

Why Not?
12-11-2007, 12:15 AM
These trades appear to be very important for MacPhail. The Orioles are very bad, and must trade Bedard and get a good haul if they ever wanna be any good this century...

Absolutely.

It's important for the team, a potential turning point. Orioles fans are in a frenzy to see what sort of haul we can bring in. Sadly, there might be more excitement today than at any time in the last 5-10 years. Part of the optimism is based on the notion that Peter Angelos might finally let his baseball people to their jobs with meddling.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 12:51 AM
The problem with dealing Bailey to the O's is that Bailey is not a prospect who will be in the minors he is being counted on to pitch in the rotation. What you are essentially trading for is the improvement of Bedard over Bailey for the next two years. In exchange you are giving up the rest of the control you would have over Bailey (3+ years) plus whatever other position players you might send such as Hamilton or Votto.

Is that worth it? Are Hamilton and/or Votto worth the difference between Bedard and Bailey for the next two years? To trade pitching for pitching doesnt make sense for the Reds or for anybody for that matter. The Reds dont have to make a trade, they can hang on to their prospects let them develop and become a better team, Baltimore has to trade Bedard because that is the only way to improve their team.

I would rather trade Bruce to the Giants for Cain or Lincecum than send Bailey, Votto/Hamilton and a prospect to the O's for Bedard.

You make some good points with regard to Bailey. In addition,Votto and Hamilton have no equal replacements coming from the minor leagues. You could say Bruce will replace Hamilton, but who then would replace Dunn and Griffey? We really have no one close in the minors to replace Joey Votto at all. I really have a very simple philosophy with regard to trading players: Trade prospects if you have someone equal or better who can replace them from the minors. None of the Big 4 (or Hamilton )really have someone from the minors who could replace their production if we trade them. We really need only 2 starting pitchers. Harang is our #1, Arroyo(who really is a #3), will suffice as our#2, and Belisle is a #4 or #5 depending on who you talk to. I would seek to get 2 starting pitchers in free agency: a #5 and a #3. I would sign them both to 1 or 2 year deals, and by then both Bailey and Cueto will have developed considerably to have the Reds challenge in 2009. I fully expect the reds to be competitive in 2008, but we should be able to make the World Series and the playoffs in 2009.

ChatterRed
12-11-2007, 01:44 AM
Patience is a virtue.

Do Reds fans have any?

Doubtful.

TN Red Fan
12-11-2007, 01:56 AM
Patience is a virtue.

Do Reds fans have any?

Doubtful.

17 years.

BLEEDS
12-11-2007, 10:11 AM
Does anyone else see the writing on the wall for moving Dunn to first? If Votto is on the block, it opens up that possibility. Talk about corner power. And we know Kriv loves a defense-minded outfield. Could also open that spot for Bruce if the organization thinks he's ready.

Yes, that is the plan. Then we go into 2009 with an OF (from Left to Right) of Jeff Keppinger, Norris Hopper, and Jay Bruce.

BRILLIANT!!!

Dunn, IF signed to an LTC, will stay in Left.

I could live with Hopper in CF if we have Votto at First, and Jay Bruce in RF.

That's why I don't want to trade Joey Votto. He will give us .900+ OPS at 1B on the cheap for the next 5 years. We can't get that anywhere CLOSE from inside our organization. We'd be foolish to go with Hatteberg instead. 1B has been a sore spot ever since Sean Casey went 25/99 in 2004...

He and Bruce are my "untouchables"

Josh Hamilton (who is sanse his babysitter anyhow) and Bailey for Bedard.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't give up Bailey or Cueto in the deal, and packaged Josh with a Maloney and say a Stubbs or other younger prospect. I think the O's want to go REAL REAL YOUNG, not just 2009 prospect young...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Jefferson24
12-11-2007, 11:08 AM
This whole trade idea gives me great concern. So we make the trade and lets say finish 1st next year in the division, but we lose in the first playoff round. We feel good because the season was more successful than we have been in quite some time. 2009 rolls around and we have little to no offense and no young guys in the system to fill those voids. We have freed up some money but the free agent market is impossible to compete in because is is even more out of control.

Wayne wants to win next year at all cost because it means his job. He will be sacrificing the core of this club by trading Bailey, Hamilton, and Votto.

I know I've hear it before "position players are easier to replace than pitchers" this is true. But good position players cost lots of money. The Reds right now have a young, talented core of players that are dirt cheap. The team needs to be built around that core.

This whole deal just has a bad feel to me.

I(heart)Freel
12-11-2007, 11:10 AM
The Reds continue to be called an "also-ran" in any big trade talks.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7548574?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

That's fine by me. In fact, that tells me that Wayne is doing his double-secret jedi mind trick trading strategy again.

I love that the national media hang on to the Jay Bruce angle and write us off if he's not on the table. Like he's the only prospect we have.

I do agree with the article on one thing though: as soon as the first domino falls, we're in for a wild for few weeks.

ChatterRed
12-11-2007, 11:19 AM
I continue to get the impression that the teams with a good farm system that could trade for top notch pitching, are not willing to part with their top prospects. Atleast, not gut the farm, like the teams holding the top notch pitching are asking for.

Anyone else get the feeling that the Detroit-Marlins trade will be the last "huge" deal with tons of players changing hands?

I think it was an eye opener of sorts for other GM's who left the Winter Meetings scratching their heads at the pricetag for top pitching.

It won't surprise me to see Bedard, Kazmir, Haren, etc.........sit for awhile and then the asking price come down. Just my opinion.

HokieRed
12-11-2007, 01:39 PM
How about an outfield by mid 2009 of Bruce in right, Stubbs in center, Hamilton in left? Dunn or Votto at first base, the other moved to spread his money around, pay Phillips, get the other talent we need? That outfield could hit 90 home runs and would be unquestionably the best defensively in baseball.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 01:50 PM
How about an outfield by mid 2009 of Bruce in right, Stubbs in center, Hamilton in left? Dunn or Votto at first base, the other moved to spread his money around, pay Phillips, get the other talent we need? That outfield could hit 90 home runs and would be unquestionably the best defensively in baseball.

There is no guarantee Stubbs will even make the major leagues, much less by the middle of 2009. It has frequently been suggested we move Dunn to first, but I really can't see him ever returning to first base.

BEETTLEBUG
12-11-2007, 03:08 PM
Dusty said Saturday that he wouldn't mind Dunn at first that he thought he could handle it.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 04:50 PM
Dusty might not mind, but he still has to convince Adam Dunn. Dunn might not sign a LTC if a move to first is contemplated.

GoReds33
12-11-2007, 05:01 PM
Dusty might not mind, but he still has to convince Adam Dunn. Dunn might not sign a LTC if a move to first is contemplated.I think winning would be more of a priority though. He has said that he wants to stay here, and with this organization's recent push, he should be convinced we are in it for the long term. I think that a big part of him wanting to stay in the outfield was that he would be more marketable as a powerful hitter, hidden in left field.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 05:20 PM
We will see. I would rather have both Dunn and Votto on the same team and keep all our best prospects, rather than trading away our farm system to land Bedard. I realize it would probably be best to keep all our prospects, but we really do need to upgrade our starting pitching before Harang's and Arroyo's contracts end. I would not mind making a trade like Bailey, Hamilton, and a third prospect like Maloney if we can sign Bedard long-term in the 72-hour window. We cannot get our prospects back if Bedard decides to test free agency after 2 years and goes to Canada.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 05:24 PM
O's on Bedard

This from today's Baltimore Sun:

Despite rampant rumors that (Brian) Roberts, shortstop Miguel Tejada and ace pitcher Erik Bedard are about to be traded, MacPhail said no deals were imminent as of last night.

"There's no shortage of talk, but it's just that - talk," MacPhail said. "The conversations have not ebbed since we left Nashville."

MacPhail said the club is in the process of filtering the number of suitors to decide who is the best trade fit for several Orioles. At this point, it appears the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners have emerged as the leading contenders for Bedard. The Houston Astros have been the most aggressive suitor for Tejada, and the Chicago Cubs have honed in on Roberts.

I talked to someone today who thought the Reds were third in the race, but that they could get the deal done if they offered Jay Bruce. I don't think they'll do that.

It's interesting, this trade is likely to come down to what the Reds and O's think of Reds' top two prospects. That's a very fluid thing. This time last year, my guess is the Reds would have traded Bruce but not Bailey. If Bailey wins 11 or 12 games this season, he'll go back to untouchable.

posted by John Fay at 2:15 PM

If it really does come down to the Reds trading Jay Bruce, it may very well be that Bedard does not come to Cincinnati.

Stephenk29
12-11-2007, 05:48 PM
From the looks of things due to that article Bedard will not be coming to Cincy

schmidty622
12-11-2007, 05:56 PM
From the looks of things due to that article Bedard will not be coming to Cincy

Thank God.

Pick up Mark Prior and/or Freddy Garcia and go into the season with an improved rotation and bullpen.

Handofdeath
12-11-2007, 06:47 PM
Thank God.

Pick up Mark Prior and/or Freddy Garcia and go into the season with an improved rotation and bullpen.

Exactly. The Reds should simply fill in holes right now. Improving the bullpen should be #1 on the list and I think they did that. 28 blown saves in 2007. Cut that in half and the Reds win 86 games and the NL Central in 2007. Same thing in 2006. A top closer will do wonders for the Reds especially one who can strike guys out like Cordero. Reds fans will love him. He can be absolutely filthy and unhittable.

crazybob60
12-11-2007, 07:01 PM
Dusty might not mind, but he still has to convince Adam Dunn. Dunn might not sign a LTC if a move to first is contemplated.


Dusty may be the one that could convince Dunn to move to first and help him out there with the position as well, remember that in Dusty's career he was strictly an OF and then he migrated to 1B...so that could have a big say in things, although personally in my opinion I don't see that happening.

Bip Roberts
12-11-2007, 07:14 PM
Dunn being a 1st baseman would be the greatest thing for this organization.

Orenda
12-11-2007, 07:26 PM
How about this for a solution. Sign Dunn to a LTC with the idea he'll remain in left. Then move him to 1st. If he refuses to play there he doesnt get paid, similiar to the Alfonso Soriano situation a couple years ago.

*BaseClogger*
12-11-2007, 10:35 PM
How about this for a solution. Sign Dunn to a LTC with the idea he'll remain in left. Then move him to 1st. If he refuses to play there he doesnt get paid, similiar to the Alfonso Soriano situation a couple years ago.

but I'm sure Dunn reads RedsZone so now he will know what we are up to!:D

roby
12-12-2007, 12:51 AM
but I'm sure Dunn reads RedsZone so now he will know what we are up to!:D

Oh, man!

BLEEDS
12-12-2007, 01:33 AM
Glad to know someone else is Finally on the Freddy Garcia bandwagon.

I just have a feeling that we would be VERY surprised by his production here. He's a horse if nothing else, and could be an Arroyo-esque first FULL year guy in the NL... (edit, knew he played in Philly last year but was hurt)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

schmidty622
12-12-2007, 06:56 AM
Glad to know someone else is Finally on the Freddy Garcia bandwagon.

I just have a feeling that we would be VERY surprised by his production here. He's a horse if nothing else, and could be an Arroyo-esque first FULL year guy in the NL... (edit, knew he played in Philly last year but was hurt)

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Garcia would be a huge improvement over what we have right now at the #3 rotation spot, and he would probably come relatively cheap because he is injured.
He's not a prolific groundball pitcher but he’s not as horrible as Milton was and is actually better than Bronson Arroyo in that respect, so he could succeed in GABP. He has the ability to strikeout a fair share of batters with a career K/9 of 6.62.

Assuming he is healthy I would not mind the Reds overpaying a little bit to snag him on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option. I just think he is a perfect fit in that #3 hole.

BEETTLEBUG
12-12-2007, 09:07 AM
I am also glad another Zoner is for Garcia. I think would be a good three.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 04:43 PM
Garcia won't be back until June. Hopefully by then Cueto/Maloney is ready...

ChatterRed
12-12-2007, 11:41 PM
On the Hot Stove League, Marty said that Chris Welsh called and told him that Orioles are demanding Jay Bruce in the trade or no deal.

The Reds pursued Bedard first because he's a lefty, but have now turned their eyes toward Haren (a righty). From all reports, they have moved their attention elsewhere and a Bedard deal is unlikely unless the O's come back to them with lesser demands.

AmarilloRed
12-12-2007, 11:52 PM
The Dodgers are now unlikely to pursue Bedard (if they sign Kuroda), so the Orioles had better hope they are blown away by the Mariners. I would not expect the Reds to find that Billy Beane will give them a better deal than the Orioles will. We will have to pay through the nose in prospects for either pitcher.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-12-2007, 11:59 PM
On the Hot Stove League, Marty said that Chris Welsh called and told him that Orioles are demanding Jay Bruce in the trade or no deal.

The Reds pursued Bedard first because he's a lefty, but have now turned their eyes toward Haren (a righty). From all reports, they have moved their attention elsewhere and a Bedard deal is unlikely unless the O's come back to them with lesser demands.
This doesn't make much sense to me, if they are demanding Bruce or no deal when did they make this decision. I'm pretty sure that if the Reds were unwilling to trade Bruce they would have told the O's right at the start. The big question here would be, what happens if the other two teams interested in Bedard pull out will the O's take a non Bruce offer from the Reds or will they just keep him? Would you trade Bruce if the O's threw in Guthrie and Ramon Hernandez?

Bip Roberts
12-13-2007, 12:01 AM
I want more in return for Bruce than 2 years of any pitcher

HokieRed
12-13-2007, 12:14 AM
Replacement value is an enormous thing to keep in mind with giving up young players. Rowand just got 60 million for 5 from the Giants. What, then, would it cost to replace Josh Hamilton for the next 5 years. If he develops as we expect, it would have to be on the order of 75 million dollars given the Rowand figure. That alone should be enough to put an end to the panicked giveaway of talent for Eric Bedard or Danny Haren. I, frankly, don't want to see either of them come our way, primarily because I don't think the Reds have any chance of winning anything meaningful in 2008 anyway. And 2008 may be the only year Bedard is a better pitcher than Homer.

ChatterRed
12-13-2007, 01:40 AM
Replacement value is an enormous thing to keep in mind with giving up young players. Rowand just got 60 million for 5 from the Giants. What, then, would it cost to replace Josh Hamilton for the next 5 years. If he develops as we expect, it would have to be on the order of 75 million dollars given the Rowand figure. That alone should be enough to put an end to the panicked giveaway of talent for Eric Bedard or Danny Haren. I, frankly, don't want to see either of them come our way, primarily because I don't think the Reds have any chance of winning anything meaningful in 2008 anyway. And 2008 may be the only year Bedard is a better pitcher than Homer.

What is all this love for Homer Bailey? What has he done in the majors to this point?

Personally, I found his first stint disappointing unlike the stints of several other young pitching prospects in the majors.

Hondo
12-13-2007, 03:07 AM
How much would it take to Bring in Garcia. Would be a Great Pickup!

Thankya

TN Red Fan
12-13-2007, 07:45 AM
On the Hot Stove League, Marty said that Chris Welsh called and told him that Orioles are demanding Jay Bruce in the trade or no deal.

The Reds pursued Bedard first because he's a lefty, but have now turned their eyes toward Haren (a righty). From all reports, they have moved their attention else where and a Bedard deal is unlikely unless the O's come back to them with lesser demands.

Bruce or no deal? I doubt it.

What if Jay Bruce didn't exist? Do you think the Orioles would cut off talks with the Reds given all the other prospects we have? I don't think so. Even without Bruce, we have as much ammo as anybody else. Hamilton and Bailey/Cueto alone should be enough to keep talks going, and Hamilton, Bailey/Cueto and Votto is still better than anybody else is offering. I say the Orioles are just doing everything they can to get Bruce included.

ChatterRed
12-13-2007, 10:13 AM
Bruce or no deal? I doubt it.

I say the Orioles are just doing everything they can to get Bruce included.

Uh......yeah. Of course they are.

Dude, I was just reporting what was said by Marty Brennaman. Not my words but his on the HSL.

AmarilloRed
12-13-2007, 01:36 PM
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Bedard update

While we wait for the Mitchell Report, here's an update:

The Reds remain hopeful that they can land Erik Bedard but not as hopeful as they were last week. Let's say 50-50. The Orioles continue to insist on Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't going to give him up. I'm not sure how or if the Miguel Tejada trade will affect this. The Orioles did get Luke Scott, a left-handed hitting outfielder, in the trade.

Even if the Reds can't land Bedard, they're dead set on having a proven starter in the mix. Oakland's Dan Haren is the best available. But Billy Beane is asking a lot -- probably too much for the Reds' tastes. That leaves Cliff Lee and the second-tier free agents. Dusty Baker told some people at the Winter Meetings that he would like to have Mark Prior, who the Cubs non-tendered. He's a huge risk because of his medical history. But, if he's healthy, the reward would be large.

Carlos Silva remains on unsigned. I'd be surprised if the Reds would lay out that kind of coin. But, then again, I didn't think they'd pay $46 million for Francisco Cordero.

posted by John Fay at 9:59 AM

50/50 is about even odds. I don't think anything will happen until the Orioles realize the Reds will not trade Bruce under any circumstances.

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 01:55 PM
The latest, per an uncredited blurb on ESPN Rumor Central: "In recent days, the Cubs let their interest be known." The blurb also references the Seattle PI, perhaps this article, but there's no Cubs reference there.

Anyway, it makes sense that Jim Hendry and Andy MacPhail would at least have a high-level Bedard discussion. The Cubs need a pitcher like him, they've liked him before, and they do have some decent young talent.

Everybody get ready. The Cubs are about to swoop in and grab Bedard from the Reds.

HokieRed
12-18-2007, 02:16 PM
I think it makes perfect sense for the Orioles to demand Bruce. They know Krivsky's job is probably on the line--if he doesn't win next year, he's not going to be around to see Bruce's terrific long-time career--; they know Dusty was probably brought in with the promise that strong action would be taken to compete right away (this was probably the hook to bring Dusty in); they know Reds fans have lost patience with the long-term approach; they know Krivsky has a history of overpaying. They know the Reds, in short, are in a weak position. We're the ones slobbering all over ourselves to make the trade; why not hang on for the maximum return? I say we tell them to put it where the sun doesn't shine. But there is a lot of short-term pressure on the Reds--some of it generated by conversations on these boards--to make such a deal. I hope we don't. I bet we will.