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Degenerate39
12-09-2007, 04:41 PM
Gagne and Brewers Agreed to 10M Deal

By CHRIS JENKINS
AP Sports Writer

MADISON, Wis. (AP) -- The Milwaukee Brewers reached a preliminary agreement on a $10 million, one-year contract with free-agent reliever Eric Gagne, giving the team another option at closer after losing Francisco Cordero to free agency.

Gagne's deal, which is subject to him passing a physical, will allow him to earn an additional $1 million in performance bonuses, a person familiar with the negotiations said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been finalized.

Gagne's agreement was first reported by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel on its Web site.

"We're not there yet," Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said Saturday night at the Marquette-Wisconsin basketball game.

Melvin said the Brewers' interest in Gagne didn't indicate a lack of confidence in reliever Derrick Turnbow, considered the most logical candidate to take over as the Brewers' closer after Cordero finalized a $46 million, four-year deal with Cincinnati.

"We're just adding depth," Melvin said.

The Brewers were interested in trading for Gagne before last season's trading deadline, but lost out to the Boston Red Sox. Gagne struggled in Boston, going 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 20 games after being traded from Texas, but Melvin said he still considered the right-hander a potential closer.

"He's got a history of closing, and he's a guy that can help our bullpen on the back end," Melvin said.

Gagne had 152 saves with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2002 to 2004, the most in a three-year period in major league history, and won the NL Cy Young Award in 2003. The Canadian's streak of converting 84 consecutive save opportunities in those years is far and away the longest in major league baseball.

Edd Roush
12-09-2007, 04:47 PM
I thought the Gagne signing was smart until I saw this amount. 10 million dollars for a guy who hasn't been good in two years! That's quite a gamble.

Jay Bruce
12-09-2007, 05:01 PM
I like this signing for the Brewers. The money is high at 10 million, but since it is only for one year, it is a good risk to take. Gagne's struggles in Boston were largely overstated. Based on his xFIP before and after the trade, he was the exact same pitcher with Boston as he was in Texas. The difference was that his BABIP went from a lucky .244 to an extremely unlucky .449. In actuality, his overall ERA of 3.81 was a an accurate account of how he pitched for the year. With a move back to the NL, he could look like a very good bargain for the Brewers.

757690
12-09-2007, 05:20 PM
I like this signing for the Brewers. The money is high at 10 million, but since it is only for one year, it is a good risk to take. Gagne's struggles in Boston were largely overstated. Based on his xFIP before and after the trade, he was the exact same pitcher with Boston as he was in Texas. The difference was that his BABIP went from a lucky .244 to an extremely unlucky .449. In actuality, his overall ERA of 3.81 was a an accurate account of how he pitched for the year. With a move back to the NL, he could look like a very good bargain for the Brewers.

First, the real stat is that he started to give up a lot of hits and runs the second time through the league. His last month with the Rangers, he was just as bad with them as he was with the Red Sox. He also was babied at the beginning of the season, so you can't say he was tired.

Second, I really don't care what his experimental stats like xFIP or BABIP are, he was not unlucky in Boston. My brother lives in Boston, so I follow them as well as the Reds. I saw every appearance Gagne made for Boston, and I can promise you he was not unlucky. He got hit real hard. Even his outs were hard outs. It was clear that he was not fooling anyone.

Sometimes a pitchers BABIP is high, not because of luck, but because the balls hit in play are all rockets. Case in point, Todd Coffey.

Gange may start out okay for the Brewers in 08, but I think the second time around he will get hit hard.

kaldaniels
12-09-2007, 05:41 PM
I like this signing for the Brewers. The money is high at 10 million, but since it is only for one year, it is a good risk to take. Gagne's struggles in Boston were largely overstated. Based on his xFIP before and after the trade, he was the exact same pitcher with Boston as he was in Texas. The difference was that his BABIP went from a lucky .244 to an extremely unlucky .449. In actuality, his overall ERA of 3.81 was a an accurate account of how he pitched for the year. With a move back to the NL, he could look like a very good bargain for the Brewers.

10M is not a bargain for any reliever. It is simply the going rate for a good reliever. Even if Eric has a good year, 10M isn't exactly a "bargain"

Jay Bruce
12-09-2007, 06:20 PM
Second, I really don't care what his experimental stats like xFIP or BABIP are, he was not unlucky in Boston. My brother lives in Boston, so I follow them as well as the Reds. I saw every appearance Gagne made for Boston, and I can promise you he was not unlucky. He got hit real hard. Even his outs were hard outs. It was clear that he was not fooling anyone.

Sometimes a pitchers BABIP is high, not because of luck, but because the balls hit in play are all rockets. Case in point, Todd Coffey.

Gange may start out okay for the Brewers in 08, but I think the second time around he will get hit hard.

While Gagne did give up more line drives with Boston, it still doesn't equate to a .200 point increase in BABIP. Generally, studies have shown that BABIP will be close to Line Drive % + .120. So, even with the slight increase in LD%, Gagne's expected BABIP should have been .366, not in the .440's. In addition, he had a 10.61 K/9 with the Redsox, he couldn't have been that hittable. His overall ERA was 3.81, and based on the stats, it was well desreved.

I may have overstated it by calling ten million a potential bargain, but is certainly wasn't an overpayment, especially since it is only for one year.

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 06:42 PM
As long as Gagne stays healthy he will be a strong addition to the Brewers' 'pen...

Edit- at this point, who has the stronger 'pen, the Reds or Brewers?

757690
12-09-2007, 06:46 PM
While Gagne did give up more line drives with Boston, it still doesn't equate to a .200 point increase in BABIP. Generally, studies have shown that BABIP will be close to Line Drive % + .120. So, even with the slight increase in LD%, Gagne's expected BABIP should have been .366, not in the .440's. In addition, he had a 10.61 K/9 with the Redsox, he couldn't have been that hittable. His overall ERA was 3.81, and based on the stats, it was well desreved.

I may have overstated it by calling ten million a potential bargain, but is certainly wasn't an overpayment, especially since it is only for one year.


Thanks for the stats. Very helpful.

Still that is a very high BABIP, especially for a closer. Most closers have one around a run lower. Coffey's was even lower than that. Not sure those are closer numbers. We'll see.

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 06:47 PM
Ah who cares, closers are overrated anyways... Just look at Joe Borowski...

redsfanmia
12-09-2007, 06:51 PM
Better them then us.

757690
12-09-2007, 06:57 PM
Ah who cares, closers are overrated anyways... Just look at Joe Borowski...

Could not agree more. Great point.

I think that when managers started reserving their closer just for the end of the game, and not the most important at bats of the game, saves became somewhat meaningless. That and the ridiculous save rule where a closer gets a save after getting one out with a three run lead and no one on base.


Whitey Herzog would sometime bring in Bruce Sutter in the 7th, if it was a tough and important situation, like baseloaded, no outs and the other teams 3-5 hitters due up. No one does that anymore.

Krawhitham
12-09-2007, 06:58 PM
Edit- at this point, who has the stronger 'pen, the Reds or Brewers?


The Reds have added 2 players to the bullpen a closer that had more BS than Weathers and costs 12 million more and a guy who had a 7.12 ERA in Single A last season and you are asking who has a stronger pen?

*BaseClogger*
12-09-2007, 07:01 PM
The Reds have added 2 players to the bullpen a closer that had more BS than Weathers and costs 12 million more and a guy who had a 7.12 ERA in Single A last season and you are asking who has a stronger pen?

You're right, blown saves are the best way to judge a pitcher!:rolleyes:

Jay Bruce
12-09-2007, 07:23 PM
Thanks for the stats. Very helpful.

Still that is a very high BABIP, especially for a closer. Most closers have one around a run lower. Coffey's was even lower than that. Not sure those are closer numbers. We'll see.

The thing is, based on the small sample size a closer pitches, LD% is not usually a repeatable stat. From 2002 to 2004, the LD% for Gagne was 19.2%, 29.1% and 18.4% respectively. In 2003, where he had the 29.1% Line Drive rate, he won the Cy Young award.

Over the last 6 years, Trevor Hoffman has had LD% range from 17.6% to 31.8%. Over that same timeframe, Francisco Cordero has had LD% range from 17% to 25.7%. In addition, Mariano Rivera has had his LD% range from 11.9% to 21.7%. There isn't usually a whole lot of consistency.

In addition, because of the small sample sizes of relievers, the LD% + .120 rarely equates to their BABIP, it simply gives you an idea of how they have actually pitched, and how you should expect them to perform in the future. Because of that, I would not expect Gagne to post a high BABIP like that again. As long as Gagne keeps up the high K's, low BB's and low HR's he posted last year, I see him being a very good pitcher.

Edd Roush
12-11-2007, 03:44 PM
Could not agree more. Great point.

I think that when managers started reserving their closer just for the end of the game, and not the most important at bats of the game, saves became somewhat meaningless. That and the ridiculous save rule where a closer gets a save after getting one out with a three run lead and no one on base.


Whitey Herzog would sometime bring in Bruce Sutter in the 7th, if it was a tough and important situation, like baseloaded, no outs and the other teams 3-5 hitters due up. No one does that anymore.


I don't understand how so-called Reds' fans can undervalue a killer closer. I'm not calling Gagne a dominant closer as he once was, but with the Reds' signing of Codero, it should alleviate the 8th inning blues we faced much of last year. A good closer, pushes all of the other pitchers back an inning an improves the entire bullpen.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-11-2007, 03:48 PM
The Reds have added 2 players to the bullpen a closer that had more BS than Weathers and costs 12 million more and a guy who had a 7.12 ERA in Single A last season and you are asking who has a stronger pen?
I have less Major League blown saves than both Weathers and Cordero so that means I'm better?