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View Full Version : Redszone Community Prospect Vote #15



dougdirt
12-11-2007, 06:12 PM
Vote for the player who you think is the Reds #15 prospect (the best prospect who is not yet on the list). We will go with this as far as you guys want to take it.

I will post a new list every 2 days with 10-15 options to vote on.

If you feel like making an argument on why a guy should be voted here, feel free to vote and state why you voted for that player.

If there is someone that is not currently listed as an option to vote on, vote for 'other' then just state who you want to vote for in the thread.

If there is anyone you would like to see as an option on the next poll, just say so and if they garner enough support, they will be placed on the next poll. Guys with the lowest amount of votes will usually be removed for the next few guys who were talked about in the previous thread.


Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier
Prospect 6 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect 7 - Matt Maloney
Prospect 8 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect 9 - Travis Wood
Prospect 10 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect 11 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect 12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect 13 - Sean Watson
Prospect 14 - Carlos Fisher

Screwball
12-11-2007, 06:16 PM
Neftali Soto. Dude can rake.

dougdirt
12-11-2007, 06:17 PM
Sorry for taking so long to get this up, I finally got my laptop today (DHL shipped it to the wrong place.... I am not to pleased with them at the moment) and have been setting it up and getting all of my programs onto it before my trip this weekend, so it took me a while to make it to redszone today and get this thing going.

Went with Neftali Soto again for the 6th straight poll. Love his upside. Has a good approach to the plate and I love his power potential.

Kc61
12-11-2007, 06:33 PM
Francisco again. 25 homers, 90 ribbies, A-ball, at 19-20. Considering his youth and production, he's the clear guy.

BRM
12-11-2007, 06:41 PM
Francisco again. 25 homers, 90 ribbies, A-ball, at 19-20. Considering his youth and production, he's the clear guy.

I would guess his lack of plate discipline is what's holding him back in most people's eyes.

TOBTTReds
12-11-2007, 06:56 PM
47 Homeruns in 132 games. Brandon Waring.

M2
12-11-2007, 07:14 PM
I would guess his lack of plate discipline is what's holding him back in most people's eyes.

It eliminates him as far as I'm concerned.

I went with Soto based on upside.

Patrick Bateman
12-11-2007, 07:32 PM
Ty Pelland.

Potential impact set-up lefty. Since he's been rightfully turned into a reliever, he's seen a great increase in his K's, and at the same time his control has been way better. Clearly the lack of arsenal held him back as a starter, but can still make him effective out of the pen. He profiles IMO, as a 9+ K/9 in the majors, and should pair nicely with Bray as 2 effective lefties that can play near the end of the game. Basically major league ready to boot after his success in AAA.

IMO, he's already bypassed Coutlangus as the second best lefty reliever in the organization, and with a strong camp, I fully expect that he can win a job in the pen. So fair upside for a reliever, plus major league ready makes him a pretty undervalued prospect IMO.

OnBaseMachine
12-11-2007, 08:04 PM
It came down to Viola, Pelland, and Soto for me, and I decided to go with Pedro Viola based on the impressive hit rate (only 55 hits in 82.1 innings) to go along with 30 bb/90 k.

AmarilloRed
12-11-2007, 08:10 PM
I also was impressed with Pedro Viola's numbers.

Redman15
12-11-2007, 08:17 PM
I'm going again with a player that has produced on the field. I voted Turner. A grinder that knows how to compete. He might not project as well as some of these others guys but he knows how to play the game. He has put up some pretty good offensive numbers in his first 2 seasons.


PHP Code:
PO AG NAME AB HR AVG OBP SLG SB
2B 27 Luis Bolivar 2208 37 269 321 398 109
SS 25 Paul Janish 1384 25 263 355 381 32
2B 24 Drew Anderson 1634 25 259 327 400 49
?? 24 Michael Griffin 1140 18 285 327 412 28
SS 21 Jose Castro 810 2 262 320 309 14
2B 24 Michael Dejesus 965 8 251 368 315 25
2B 23 Justin Turner 717 16 317 383 460 24
2B 22 Chris Valaika 792 20 298 353 458 3
SS 22 Zach Cozart 184 2 239 288 332 3
SS 18 Neftali Soto 152 2 303 355 454 2

chicoruiz
12-11-2007, 08:43 PM
Rosales. Again. Played through an injury in '06, has hit well every other year.

mth123
12-11-2007, 09:55 PM
Rosales. Again. Played through an injury in '06, has hit well every other year.

Yep.

gedred69
12-11-2007, 10:02 PM
Waring again. HRs and a good BA. (Isn't it great we can go this deep, and still have a debate)!?!?! Bartles should show up soon, what a pleasant surprise he was......Dang, isn't there anyone from Montana that saw the Mustangs who can tell us what they saw?

*BaseClogger*
12-11-2007, 10:23 PM
I'm a sucker for starting pitcher prospects so I voted Thompson...

Mario-Rijo
12-11-2007, 11:02 PM
Again it's time guys. Although I do like Pelland I think Viola could be slightly better.

HBP
12-11-2007, 11:31 PM
47 Homeruns in 132 games. Brandon Waring.

He had only five less HR than Francisco did in half of the at bats and only a level lower. .369 OBP% vs. .301 as well.

Superdude
12-12-2007, 12:55 AM
He had only five less HR than Francisco did in half of the at bats and only a level lower. .369 OBP% vs. .301 as well.

He could join Francisco in that category if he doesn't cut back the K's. When it comes to the only thing that makes these guys intriguing, raw power, it looks like Waring is outshining Francisco at the moment, but scouts seem to dig Francisco, and if they felt the same way about Waring, he wouldn't have slipped so far in the draft. Just me speculating though. It's tough to tell at this point who has the edge. Hopefully BA can shed some light on the subject in the Prospect Handbook this year.

Blue
12-12-2007, 01:17 AM
Doug, someone, maybe you, said on minorleagueball.com that Soto was injured during part of last season. What's the story on that?

Kc61
12-12-2007, 01:21 AM
He had only five less HR than Francisco did in half of the at bats and only a level lower. .369 OBP% vs. .301 as well.

Waring is a college player, Francisco is younger and still played at a higher level.

Doug, next round Derrick Lutz, please. And thanks for doing the polls.

mlbfan30
12-12-2007, 02:12 AM
It's really hard for me to see anything impressive about Fransisco. He might have "upside" but I don't think he has any upside. The chance of a player improving his plate discipline so much to even a respectable 0.340 OBP is just not realistic. I would say Beltre would be his upside comp, but then Beltre had a career .391 OBP in the minors and almost a 1:1 BB/K.
Even though Khalil Greene wasn't a HS draft pick, I would say he's a close hitting comp. Greene is a decent player, but most of his value is tied up in his defense. He has some power, but his AVG/OBP and BB/KK is just so bad.
Also Juan Uribe may in fact be the closest comp. Both HS picks, both have horrible plate discipline. Do you really think a Juan Uribe hitter from a 3B/OF position is something you want. I really think his realistic upside is him. You may want to think he can be a Beltre, but he is no where close to him so far in the minors.

M2
12-12-2007, 02:26 AM
Francisco is younger and still played at a higher level.

Honestly, if you're devoid of OB skills, and Francisco is, I don't care how old you are, where you played or what other skills you've got.

camisadelgolf
12-12-2007, 04:48 AM
I went with Soto again. After he makes the list, I'll probably start voting for Rosales.

icehole3
12-12-2007, 05:44 AM
Could one argue that Waring in college played better competition than in rookie ball and did what he shouldve done which is dominate.

Kc61
12-12-2007, 08:51 AM
Honestly, if you're devoid of OB skills, and Francisco is, I don't care how old you are, where you played or what other skills you've got.


I guess I don't understand that argument. A player like Francisco, who started last season at A ball at 19 years old, undoubtedly can improve his strike zone judgment and on base skills.

When a hitter is so productive as Francisco was, just project modest improvement in on base skills. He hit 25 homers now, these numbers could be extraordinary with such a modest improvement.

The question here is not who is the best player currently, but the best prospect. When a guy shows the power Francisco has, at his tender age, and has a great throwing arm, I think he is a pretty good prospect.

Cyclone792
12-12-2007, 09:44 AM
I guess I don't understand that argument. A player like Francisco, who started last season at A ball at 19 years old, undoubtedly can improve his strike zone judgment and on base skills.

When a hitter is so productive as Francisco was, just project modest improvement in on base skills. He hit 25 homers now, these numbers could be extraordinary with such a modest improvement.

The question here is not who is the best player currently, but the best prospect. When a guy shows the power Francisco has, at his tender age, and has a great throwing arm, I think he is a pretty good prospect.

Don't bet on much (or any) plate discipline developing. Typically players either have it, or they don't, and if they don't have plate discipline it's oftentimes very difficult to learn and acquire. Oftentimes when you see players learn more plate discipline, they already had a fair amount from an early point. Francisco has none at this point, and it's not likely he'll ever have any.

For his minor league career, Francisco has a career 27.17 PA/BB. Awful doesn't even begin to describe that.

HBP
12-12-2007, 10:39 AM
Also, Waring is only a year and a half older than Francisco.

Kc61
12-12-2007, 10:48 AM
Don't bet on much (or any) plate discipline developing. Typically players either have it, or they don't, and if they don't have plate discipline it's oftentimes very difficult to learn and acquire. Oftentimes when you see players learn more plate discipline, they already had a fair amount from an early point. Francisco has none at this point, and it's not likely he'll ever have any.

For his minor league career, Francisco has a career 27.17 PA/BB. Awful doesn't even begin to describe that.

I'm not betting on any of this, but Baseball America had Francisco as the number 8 prospect in the Reds organization. Somebody over there thinks his OBP can improve.

M2
12-12-2007, 11:30 AM
I guess I don't understand that argument. A player like Francisco, who started last season at A ball at 19 years old, undoubtedly can improve his strike zone judgment and on base skills.

When a hitter is so productive as Francisco was, just project modest improvement in on base skills. He hit 25 homers now, these numbers could be extraordinary with such a modest improvement.

The question here is not who is the best player currently, but the best prospect. When a guy shows the power Francisco has, at his tender age, and has a great throwing arm, I think he is a pretty good prospect.

Actually it's a fairly rare player who dramatically improves his BB rates as he progresses through the minors. Also, Francisco isn't just a guy who's got a poor approach at the plate, he has a horrific approach at the plate. He's walked 29 times in 752 ABs. He doesn't need modest improvement, he needs to become a wholly different ballplayer.

When you suffers from a complete dearth of OB skills you don't project as being anything, you're a non-prospect. It renders whatever other tools you may have meaningless. BA fumbles on guys like Francisco all the time. I'd sell him before folks like that catch on.

Kc61
12-12-2007, 12:18 PM
Actually it's a fairly rare player who dramatically improves his BB rates as he progresses through the minors. Also, Francisco isn't just a guy who's got a poor approach at the plate, he has a horrific approach at the plate. He's walked 29 times in 752 ABs. He doesn't need modest improvement, he needs to become a wholly different ballplayer.

When you suffers from a complete dearth of OB skills you don't project as being anything, you're a non-prospect. It renders whatever other tools you may have meaningless. BA fumbles on guys like Francisco all the time. I'd sell him before folks like that catch on.

I don't think dramatic improvement should be expected. If he hit 25 homers with terrible OBP skills, even C- OBP skills could result in an excellent power hitter.

I don't expect this player to become a table setter, he's not going to be Ichiro. But if he has a .325 OBP this guy can be a terrific power hitter lower in the lineup.

RedsManRick
12-12-2007, 01:33 PM
I'm not betting on any of this, but Baseball America had Francisco as the number 8 prospect in the Reds organization. Somebody over there thinks his OBP can improve.

And John Sickles doesn't have him in the top 20. Baseball America is notorious for a skills heavy approach. They may very well rank him at 8 and have no illusions that he'll ever develop discipline - they may just undervalue it. He's got time, but .301 isn't C-, it's D-. If he can get it up to the .330 range, then we've got something. But at the rate he doesn't make contact, it's not going to come via batting average. I dread what's going to happen to him in the FSL when those homers start turning in to long flys. It could get ugly.

I went with Daryl Thompson here as the best combination of ceiling and performance.

As for Waring, a 21 year old Cal State guy beating up the Pioneer league is good to see, but not terribly impressive. I want to see how his bat holds up against age appropriate competition.

Benihana
12-12-2007, 01:38 PM
And John Sickles doesn't have him in the top 20. Baseball America is notorious for a skills heavy approach. They may very well rank him at 8 and have no illusions that he'll ever develop discipline - they may just undervalue it.

I went with Daryl Thompson here as the best combination of ceiling and performance.

As for Waring, a 21 year old Cal State guy beating up the Pioneer league is good to see, but not terribly impressive. I want to see how his bat holds up against age appropriate competition.

I like the Thompson pick as well.

HBP
12-12-2007, 01:38 PM
I'm not betting on any of this, but Baseball America had Francisco as the number 8 prospect in the Reds organization. Somebody over there thinks his OBP can improve.

This has been used plenty of times before..., they also ranked B.J. Szymanski as the #4 prospect in 2005. Grain of salt.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 02:18 PM
Doug, someone, maybe you, said on minorleagueball.com that Soto was injured during part of last season. What's the story on that?
He had an inflamed elbow for the last month that got him shut down.



Doug, next round Derrick Lutz, please. And thanks for doing the polls.

He will be on the next one.

dougdirt
12-12-2007, 02:21 PM
As for Waring, a 21 year old Cal State guy beating up the Pioneer league is good to see, but not terribly impressive. I want to see how his bat holds up against age appropriate competition.

Waring went to Wofford.... not exactly in the powerhouse conferences around the college baseball world.

Redman15
12-12-2007, 03:27 PM
Is Wofford is a Div 1-AA school? What conference do they play in?
IMO the best college baseball is played out west.

RedsManRick
12-12-2007, 03:47 PM
Waring went to Wofford.... not exactly in the powerhouse conferences around the college baseball world.

So is that in his favor (he didn't have first class instruction) or a strike against him (he beat up lesser competition in college too)?

Danny Serafini
12-12-2007, 03:52 PM
Is Wofford is a Div 1-AA school? What conference do they play in?
IMO the best college baseball is played out west.

I believe Wofford is in North Carolina. They play in the Southern Conference, which is I-AA in football, but that designation doesn't apply to any other sport, it's all just Division I.

Redman15
12-12-2007, 04:00 PM
Thanks I will Goggle them and take a look at the Southern Conf.

HBP
12-12-2007, 04:06 PM
So is that in his favor (he didn't have first class instruction) or a strike against him (he beat up lesser competition in college too)?

IMO it's in his favor. If he hadn't dominated at Billings, obviously not, but he did. Honestly, if Waring can turn some of those K's into walks, it looks like he'll be a big time sleeper. Of course, he's only had 1 AB in A ball so I could be getting ahead of myself.

Cyclone792
12-12-2007, 04:22 PM
I'm not betting on any of this, but Baseball America had Francisco as the number 8 prospect in the Reds organization. Somebody over there thinks his OBP can improve.

Somebody over at BA must have the belief than Juan Francisco will have the abiilty to completely alter his approach at the plate.

Remember, poor plate discipline doesn't just mean no walks; it also means lousy batting counts. Hitters with poor discipline get themselves into pitcher's counts too many times and get themselves into hitter's counts too few times. And not even Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols were good hitters in pitcher's counts.

Kc61
12-12-2007, 04:26 PM
Somebody over at BA must have the belief than Juan Francisco will have the abiilty to completely alter his approach at the plate.

Remember, poor plate discipline doesn't just mean no walks; it also means lousy batting counts. Hitters with poor discipline get themselves into pitcher's counts too many times and get themselves into hitter's counts too few times. And not even Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols were good hitters in pitcher's counts.


Well, Francisco hit .268 over a full season. He didn't hit .210. He showed enough overall hitting ability and pitch recognition to compile a pretty good average for a power hitter.

He needs to get more patient and get more walks, but folks are underestimating his performance.

Cyclone792
12-12-2007, 04:36 PM
Well, Francisco hit .268 over a full season. He didn't hit .210. He showed enough overall hitting ability and pitch recognition to compile a pretty good average for a power hitter.

He needs to get more patient and get more walks, but folks are underestimating his performance.

The dude had a .463 slugging percentage, and quite frankly, that's nothing to brag about for a power hitter.

I don't care what his batting average is, but if his on-base percentage is awful, then he needs some value in the slugging department. And unfortunately, his poor plate discipline will seriously cap his slugging potential.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 04:41 PM
I don't expect this player to become a table setter, he's not going to be Ichiro. But if he has a .325 OBP this guy can be a terrific power hitter lower in the lineup.

Sounds like Brandon Phillips!:D

RedsManRick
12-12-2007, 06:03 PM
Well, Francisco hit .268 over a full season. He didn't hit .210. He showed enough overall hitting ability and pitch recognition to compile a pretty good average for a power hitter.

He needs to get more patient and get more walks, but folks are underestimating his performance.

His HR count was high but look at his OPS. His SLG wasn't stellar because when he wasn't hitting homers, he wasn't doing much of anything.

His ISO was .192. Valaika was at .186 while hitting .300 and playing a tougher defensive position. But Chris hasn't garnered a single vote in this poll. I'll grant the age difference.

However, I think there are guys on this list who have shown more than just power and a nice defensive arm who deserve to go ahead of him.

GoReds33
12-12-2007, 06:46 PM
It looks like Waring is finally getting some votes.

Kc61
12-12-2007, 06:47 PM
His HR count was high but look at his OPS. His SLG wasn't stellar because when he wasn't hitting homers, he wasn't doing much of anything.

His ISO was .192. Valaika was at .186 while hitting .300 and playing a tougher defensive position. But Chris hasn't garnered a single vote in this poll. I'll grant the age difference.

However, I think there are guys on this list who have shown more than just power and a nice defensive arm who deserve to go ahead of him.

I think "just power" is more important for a position player than a lot of other skills. I can understand not naming Francisco in the top ten, but at 15 I don't see anyone who deserves it more. And the 90 RBI is meaningful to me, it shows Francisco, at least last year, was capable of knocking guys in even without the home run.

By the way, I think Valaika should get consideration soon despite his hitting woes at Sarasota.

RedsManRick
12-12-2007, 07:19 PM
Fransisco reminds me too much of Brandon Larson with less contact. As for the RBI, I give him absolutely no credit for how many guys were or were not on base when he got his hits. His RBI rate was almost identical in the GCL when he hit .280/.305/.407 with 3 HR in 182 AB.

M2
12-12-2007, 10:22 PM
Fransisco reminds me too much of Brandon Larson with less contact.

He's Tony Blanco.

klw
12-12-2007, 11:13 PM
Not that I would vote for him yet but should Sergio Valenzuela be added to the mix on account of the Rule 5 Status?

Danny Serafini
12-12-2007, 11:29 PM
I suppose he would qualify, but would he actually get a vote over anyone on this list?

camisadelgolf
12-13-2007, 06:04 AM
Fransisco reminds me too much of Brandon Larson with less contact. As for the RBI, I give him absolutely no credit for how many guys were or were not on base when he got his hits. His RBI rate was almost identical in the GCL when he hit .280/.305/.407 with 3 HR in 182 AB.

Like M2 said, Juan Francisco reminds me a little of Tony Blanco. I'd compare Waring to Brandon Larson. I think the real test will come when he goes against better breaking balls.

icehole3
12-13-2007, 07:44 AM
I dont think comparing Waring to Larson is fair, did Larson ever hit 50 homers in one year?

M2
12-13-2007, 10:42 AM
I'd compare Waring to Brandon Larson. I think the real test will come when he goes against better breaking balls.

I think you've nailed it.

BRM
12-13-2007, 11:05 AM
I dont think comparing Waring to Larson is fair, did Larson ever hit 50 homers in one year?

No, but neither has Waring.

Danny Serafini
12-13-2007, 11:39 AM
If you add his college and pro numbers together last year he hit 47, though I'm not sure how comparable those numbers really are.

Stingray
12-13-2007, 11:57 AM
I don't understand the lack of support for Chris Dickerson. I see a Mike Cameron ceiling. If he just duplicates his AAA numbers he could be a valuable 4th OF for the Reds this year with the potential to start in the future.. It's not as if the Reds are loaded with CF prospects either(Stubbs, who else?).

BRM
12-13-2007, 12:35 PM
If you add his college and pro numbers together last year he hit 47, though I'm not sure how comparable those numbers really are.

Larson hit 40 his final year at LSU. It's close but I'm not sure how comparable those numbers are either.

camisadelgolf
12-14-2007, 05:42 AM
I dont think comparing Waring to Larson is fair, did Larson ever hit 50 homers in one year?

I don't think that's fair. It's like asking, "Did Waring ever go to a World Series?" For what it's worth, Brandon Larson hit 40 homeruns in 352 plate appearances in 1997 (his last year at LSU plus his first year in the minor leagues). This year, Brandon Waring hit 47 homeruns in 553 plate appearances. If you want to count on that as a way to judge a hitter, Brandon Larson is the much better hitter. Of course that's ridiculous, and at this juncture, I'd even say that Waring is a better prospect than Larson ever was. Still, the homerun is as good of a way to judge a baseball player as batting average or ERA.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2007, 06:04 PM
I don't understand the lack of support for Chris Dickerson. I see a Mike Cameron ceiling. If he just duplicates his AAA numbers he could be a valuable 4th OF for the Reds this year with the potential to start in the future.. It's not as if the Reds are loaded with CF prospects either(Stubbs, who else?).

The difference in Cameron and Dickerson is an alledged slow bat on Dickerson's part. And if that's the case Chris wouldn't likely hit well enough to take advantage of his patience. I think they really have different reasons for having similiar issues.

Cameron's high K's = Bad Bat control

Dickerson's high K's = Slow bat speed

I am not positive that Cameron's problem is bad bat control just speculation off the top of my head breaking down his game in my mind's eye. It could be pitch recognition as well. However if it's not the above it's something else, because it's certainly not slow bat speed (at least it wasn't in his prime).

It's been discussed that Dickerson does however have poor bat speed and that is like kryptonite to a MLB player as it might be one of the more important talent's to have at the plate. If you have it you can make up for some other defiencies in your game. If you don't guy's can easily keep you off their "slower stuff" by merely mixing up their fastball plenty. Sure anyone can get lucky but not consistently enough to be worth taking up a very limited roster, where it takes all 25 men to win.

Now I am basing all this on what other's have said so take that FWIW it may or not be accurate however I think to answer your question it's a perception of Dickerson at least here. And we all know that perception can be reality when you aren't the one with all the facts to go on. And if that's not the answer to your question for everybody then I don't know what the answer is because it's his only flaw IMO, what a shame.

Redman15
12-14-2007, 06:53 PM
I don't think that's fair. It's like asking, "Did Waring ever go to a World Series?" For what it's worth, Brandon Larson hit 40 homeruns in 352 plate appearances in 1997 (his last year at LSU plus his first year in the minor leagues). This year, Brandon Waring hit 47 homeruns in 553 plate appearances. .

The college world series right? Triva question. How many current Reds minor leaguers have played in the college world series? How many have won the college world series?

dougdirt
12-14-2007, 06:56 PM
The college world series right? Triva question. How many current Reds minor leaguers have played in the college world series? How many have won the college world series?

Are we talking actaully going to the CWS or just the qualifying?

Redman15
12-14-2007, 07:08 PM
Actually playing in the CWS.

BigRed07
12-16-2007, 12:44 PM
There could be more. These are the players I know of.

Dorn Fullerton (2003,2004,2006)
Turner Fullerton (2003,2004,2006)
Stubbs Texas (2004,2005)
Kainer Texas (2004,2005)
LeCure Texas (2003,2004)
Rodriquez Maimi (2004,2006)
Tordi Florida (2005)

Bold= Won National Championship

camisadelgolf
12-17-2007, 05:12 AM
Paul Janish was on the 2003 Rice team, I believe. Jon Coutlangus was on the 2002 South Carolina team. Marcus McBeth was drafted out of South Carolina in 2001, I think.