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jmble
12-12-2007, 10:02 AM
From Lance's blog


Fox Sports
The Reds are pushing for Haren as well as Bedard, apparently believing that they could acquire such a pitcher without including outfielder Jay Bruce in the deal. A package centered around Homer Bailey and Joey Votto might not be enough, but the Reds' reluctance to part with Bruce is understandable. One rival G.M. says Bruce could be another Larry Walker . .

Wayne must be reading Redszone. All the names that have been brought up here keep showing up as potential targets.

Jim
12-12-2007, 10:07 AM
Haren seems like a better fit for the Reds than Bedard. However, same question applies... what do the Reds have to give up to make such a trade? I agree with the article that Votto and Bailey probably are not enough. As long as we don't burn Bailey AND Cueto, Kriv will pull the trigger on the deal.

AdamDunn
12-12-2007, 10:16 AM
God... no please... he's going to cost to many prospects.

The Cowboy
12-12-2007, 10:43 AM
God... no please... he's going to cost to many prospects.

When do we want to win? Now? MAYBE later with the prospects? Harang and Haren would dominate not only the Central but the National League.. Im not an advocate of giving up all of our prospects, but if we have to give up Bailey/Cueto, Hamilton?Votto and others for a legit ace, why not? He is not a Denny Naegle or a Brett Tomko.. He is an ace.

BEETTLEBUG
12-12-2007, 10:43 AM
Why not Harden in stead of Haren?

AdamDunn
12-12-2007, 10:57 AM
When do we want to win? Now? MAYBE later with the prospects? Harang and Haren would dominate not only the Central but the National League.. Im not an advocate of giving up all of our prospects, but if we have to give up Bailey/Cueto, Hamilton?Votto and others for a legit ace, why not? He is not a Denny Naegle or a Brett Tomko.. He is an ace.

how about, for sure later with prospects. That is why they are called the Big Four. We are pretty much assured that at LEAST 2 out of the four will be top of the line baseball players. Just be patient. Why do we need to trade prospects to get players when we can sign players and keep the prospects. I'd rather sign a player than trade for them. This years FA market is slim. But just wait until someone like Webb, Haren, Bedard, Kazmir, or someone of that nature to go FA and jump on them like cats on tunafish. That's what the Mets have done. They kept Wright and Reyes and signed Martinez, Beltran, Wagner and a host of other legit players.

If we trade prospects, we win now for a short while. We keep the prospects, we lose now for the short run but we win later for the long run. I'd rather have the later of the two.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 11:11 AM
how about, for sure later with prospects. That is why they are called the Big Four. We are pretty much assured that at LEAST 2 out of the four will be top of the line baseball players. Just be patient. Why do we need to trade prospects to get players when we can sign players and keep the prospects. I'd rather sign a player than trade for them. This years FA market is slim. But just wait until someone like Webb, Haren, Bedard, Kazmir, or someone of that nature to go FA and jump on them like cats on tunafish. That's what the Mets have done. They kept Wright and Reyes and signed Martinez, Beltran, Wagner and a host of other legit players.

If we trade prospects, we win now for a short while. We keep the prospects, we lose now for the short run but we win later for the long run. I'd rather have the later of the two.

I would contend that nothing is for sure with prospects. This of course is why the Reds scouting department needs to be top notch. Just remember, not one of these guys has done anything top of the line yet in the bigs. I certainly hope they are great for the Reds...but remember...nothing is certain.

mroby85
12-12-2007, 11:22 AM
you almost have to take haren or bedard if you can get them. In my opinion if you get one of those two, you might as well start printing the playoff tickets now.

ChatterRed
12-12-2007, 12:25 PM
how about, for sure later with prospects. That is why they are called the Big Four. We are pretty much assured that at LEAST 2 out of the four will be top of the line baseball players. Just be patient. Why do we need to trade prospects to get players when we can sign players and keep the prospects. I'd rather sign a player than trade for them. This years FA market is slim. But just wait until someone like Webb, Haren, Bedard, Kazmir, or someone of that nature to go FA and jump on them like cats on tunafish. That's what the Mets have done. They kept Wright and Reyes and signed Martinez, Beltran, Wagner and a host of other legit players.

If we trade prospects, we win now for a short while. We keep the prospects, we lose now for the short run but we win later for the long run. I'd rather have the later of the two.

This is why you consider trading your prospects: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64045

Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns were deemed non-tradeable when they were prospects.........how'd that turn out? Half this board or more than half wants to trade Adam Dunn.

I would say other than Dunn, none of those prospects met all the hype surrounding them.

MasonBuzz3
12-12-2007, 12:47 PM
in today's Cleveland PD, there is an article about the Tribe trying to acquire Haren from the A's. The article says that the Indians figure that it would take one player of the 25 man (Asdrubal Cabrera?), and one near MLB prospect to acquire Haren.

from this article, I would think that Hamilton/Votto and Bailey would be better than what the Tribe could offer

mroby85
12-12-2007, 01:02 PM
you would think so, i wonder if the reds are willing to give up bailey and votto/hamilton though, i know i would be hesitant.

AdamDunn
12-12-2007, 01:18 PM
I would contend that nothing is for sure with prospects. This of course is why the Reds scouting department needs to be top notch. Just remember, not one of these guys has done anything top of the line yet in the bigs. I certainly hope they are great for the Reds...but remember...nothing is certain.

Nothing is certain with veteran players either. Look at Willis, Martinez, AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Prior, Wood, the list goes on. But I'd rather have four uncertain high ceiling, low cost prospects who have a good chance (66.7%~ I'd say) of panning out than one veteran, soon to be expensive veteran pitcher who has a high chance of staying the same way (85%~) and two low cost prospects. Not to mention we don't even know how long we'd have Haren/Bedard. with prospects, if they pan out, we have them for seven years, four of them at low cost.

kaldaniels
12-12-2007, 01:34 PM
Nothing is certain with veteran players either. Look at Willis, Martinez, AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Prior, Wood, the list goes on. But I'd rather have four uncertain high ceiling, low cost prospects who have a good chance (66.7%~ I'd say) of panning out than one veteran, soon to be expensive veteran pitcher who has a high chance of staying the same way (85%~) and two low cost prospects. Not to mention we don't even know how long we'd have Haren/Bedard. with prospects, if they pan out, we have them for seven years, four of them at low cost.

Hey, there are a million different ways all these proposed trades could play out...some scenarios I would like, some I would not. Hopefully you are not implying that I said trading for one of these pitchers is a sure-thing in regards to how they will perform.....I never have/never will say that. That said...realize, my post was just stating that of the super-4 prospects...not one of them, let alone two of them are sure-things.

OUReds
12-12-2007, 01:54 PM
Not to mention we don't even know how long we'd have Haren/Bedard.

Not sure I follow you here? Haren would be under our control for three years, Bedard for two. If you mean a long term contract, I don't think you should factor one into the equation for either.

NeilHamburger
12-12-2007, 02:14 PM
That third year makes all the difference to me, it makes haren much more valuable, and gives you three legitimate years in a row to compete for a world series. That's all I can ask.

Natty Redlocks
12-12-2007, 02:17 PM
you would think so, i wonder if the reds are willing to give up bailey and votto/hamilton though, i know i would be hesitant.

Hell, I'd give up all three and not look back.

AccordinglyReds
12-12-2007, 02:25 PM
Don't give up the farm!

Bigredfan#1
12-12-2007, 02:54 PM
It is true that a lot of prospects do not turn out the way you want them to, but if you could ask the Cards if they could go back and not trade Haren when he was one of those prospects I will bet they would say do not trade him! Bailey may never be what we think he is going to be but if he turns into the number 1 that has been predicted we will be sick that we traded him for anyone! If you can trade Votto and Hamilton and Maloney and EE and get a Haren or a Bedard then go for it but please not Bailey or Cueto or Bruce!!!

BLEEDS
12-12-2007, 02:59 PM
That third year makes all the difference to me, it makes haren much more valuable, and gives you three legitimate years in a row to compete for a world series. That's all I can ask.

Agree 100%.

Plus, his contract is already decided. Bedard will be hitting arbitration over the next couple years, then - almost certaingly - will be a FA in 2010.

BUT, if you consider that we haven't yet extended Dunn past 2008, you have Griffey MORE THAN LIKELY to be gone in 2009 (no way we pay him $16.5M), then you probably see 2010 as the least of your problems.

Trading for Haren or Bedards says we want to win NOW.

We've been playing the "Wait until our great Prospects develop" card since Sweet Lou was wrestling Dibble in the clubhouse. I haven't seen one of those guys develop yet....

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 03:47 PM
you almost have to take haren or bedard if you can get them. In my opinion if you get one of those two, you might as well start printing the playoff tickets now.

until Bedard gets hurt again...

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2007, 03:48 PM
This is why you consider trading your prospects: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64045

Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns were deemed non-tradeable when they were prospects.........how'd that turn out? Half this board or more than half wants to trade Adam Dunn.

I would say other than Dunn, none of those prospects met all the hype surrounding them.

Those guys weren't pitching prospects... I can't post threads yet, so could you please post a poll asking who would trade Adam Dunn... I certainly wouldn't...

Bip Roberts
12-12-2007, 05:23 PM
I get scared about giving up our guys for pitchers that might or might not have over produced last year

Vada Pinson Fan
12-12-2007, 05:42 PM
how about, for sure later with prospects. That is why they are called the Big Four. We are pretty much assured that at LEAST 2 out of the four will be top of the line baseball players. Just be patient. Why do we need to trade prospects to get players when we can sign players and keep the prospects. I'd rather sign a player than trade for them. This years FA market is slim. But just wait until someone like Webb, Haren, Bedard, Kazmir, or someone of that nature to go FA and jump on them like cats on tunafish. That's what the Mets have done. They kept Wright and Reyes and signed Martinez, Beltran, Wagner and a host of other legit players.

If we trade prospects, we win now for a short while. We keep the prospects, we lose now for the short run but we win later for the long run. I'd rather have the later of the two.

Very well thought out Adam. I couldn't agree with you more. The Reds are now blessed with young, emerging stars in Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and also Cueto, Maloney, Roenicke, Dickenson(sp?) and others in the Reds latest Top 10 minor leaguers.

I keep my cheap, young players and sign the free agent (when available) of 1 from Haren, Kazmir and Bedard or other top notch pitchers that are FA's. Griffey's contract comes off the books next year as long as the Reds don't accept Jr.'s option for '09. These young guys are golden and other GM's know it but won't own up to it. They want to make Wayne Krivsky believe their pitcher is the best pitcher in Major League history, which we know they're not.

People need to realize that there is no one to replace 1st baseman Joey Votto's mega-talent in the minors. No, Don't put Dunn at 1st. Brandon Phillips will be worn out running for fly pop fouls. The Mets plan is the best plan as far as holding onto your own guys and bidding for the best players. The Cincinnati Reds ownership and its fanbase can and will compete for these terribly high priced pitchers in order to maintain years of competing instead of a one year possibility of winning (Santana-unless he would sign for at least 5 years here). I have seen Bruce, Votto, Hamilton and Bailey play in person and each one can dominate a game. The cost in player exchange is way to high (Even Astros fans are lamenting the 5 for 1 trade for Miguel Tejada) so going the free-agency route is the best way.

Sit tight in '08. See what else can shake out. Get Bailey and Cueto established in the rotation. Then go for it BIG-TIME for the 2008 free agents!!!

It's a Win-Win proposition!!!

AdamDunn
12-13-2007, 10:46 AM
Not sure I follow you here? Haren would be under our control for three years, Bedard for two. If you mean a long term contract, I don't think you should factor one into the equation for either.

I ment long term. The A's are asking for something similar to what the Marlins asked for Cabrera in terms of top prospects. They want two top prospects (I'm guessing two of the Big Four) and one or two other lower ceiling prospects. We only know that we can have Bedard for two years and Haren for three. Anything more than that is going to be very expensive. I'd rather have all four of the prospects for 5 cheap years than have two of them and Haren/Bedard for three/two cheap years.