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View Full Version : One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?



OnBaseMachine
12-16-2007, 01:34 AM
At this time next year when Baseball America releases their top 10 prospects for each organization, who will be the Reds number one prospect assuming the Fab Four of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto graduate to the major leagues? Obviously it has to be someone currently in the system, not an assumed 2008 draft pick.

My pick will go to 3B Todd Frazier with RHP Kyle Lotzkar being my runner up. Frazier hit .319/.405/.538 - .943 OPS in roughly 200 plate appearances between Billings and Dayton in 2007. His combination of power, plate discipline, and polish will make him one of the better hitting prospects in the game next season. I see him starting the season in Sarasota and advancing to Chattanooga by season end. I think this guy really has a chance to be the next great hitter to come out of the Reds organization. So there it is - Todd Frazier will be the Reds number one prospect at this time year IMO.

Now let's hear your opinion.

Topcat
12-16-2007, 01:49 AM
Not Really going out on a limb here but I could see Todd Frazier, and Neftali Soto as fast risers and the Pitcher acquired from Phillies Matt Maloney. I also see none of them being ready till late 2009 if on Reds team at all. I could see all 3 being dealt for immediate help depending on team needs.

dougdirt
12-16-2007, 03:05 AM
I am going to go with Drew Stubbs. I look for him to build on his new health and his .303/.394/.517 line over his last 250 plate appearances of this year to rocket himself into top 50 prospect status.

I could easily see if being Frazier as well.

Bip Roberts
12-16-2007, 04:24 AM
Probably Frazier

camisadelgolf
12-16-2007, 04:32 AM
I think Drew Stubbs will have a breakout year, and I think Todd Frazier will perform very well, but I think Kyle Lotzkar and Travis Wood are going to make other teams fantasize of having a rotation of Bailey, Cueto, Lotzkar, Wood, Maloney, etc.

GoReds33
12-16-2007, 11:55 AM
I think it will be Lotzkar, with Frazier second, and Waring third. I'm not a big fan of Stubbs as you can see.

Blue
12-16-2007, 12:06 PM
Most likely Frazier, with more success at higher levels than Lotzkar. Could be Stubbs, if he can put up a full season between High-A and AA with an .850+ OPS.

TRF
12-16-2007, 01:25 PM
I am going to go with Drew Stubbs. I look for him to build on his new health and his .303/.394/.517 line over his last 250 plate appearances of this year to rocket himself into top 50 prospect status.

I could easily see if being Frazier as well.

shocking pick doug. :)

I'll go with Travis Wood. His fastball seems to be back where it was and IIRC he had the best changeup in the system.

As for position players, I think it'll be Dorn.

dougdirt
12-16-2007, 01:29 PM
shocking pick doug. :)

I'll go with Travis Wood. His fastball seems to be back where it was and IIRC he had the best changeup in the system.

As for position players, I think it'll be Dorn.

To be honest, I have heard from several sources that Wood not only has the best change up in the system, but in all of the minor leagues. We aren't talking a plus pitch, we are talking plus plus here. He wouldn't surprise me at all either if he took over that spot if he came back next year healthy and back to his old self.

RedsManRick
12-16-2007, 01:29 PM
I think that bottom line is that it will be somebody from the current 5-10 who has the biggest year in 2008.

RedlegJake
12-16-2007, 03:05 PM
Travis Wood
Kyle Lotzkar
Todd Frazier
Neftali Soto
Brandon Waring
Juan Francisco

Put Wood and Frazier in the advanced group and Lotzkar and Soto in the emerging from the raw beginner rank. Wood and Frazier could push themelves into near term viability while Lotzkar and Soto could become hot future properties with a lot more value. Waring and Francisco are my mid level prospects likely to really up their value - not as near term as Wood/Frazier, not as far off as Lotzkar/Soto. If Francisco ever learns there are pitches you don't have to swing at he could become a real stud. The bright spot is that he obviously knows what to do with pitches in the strike zone and its not all power either. Patience and selectivity for hitters is like command
is for pitchers. It's very hard to learn.

Darkhorse candidates to overcome some of the rap on their bats:
1. Miguel Perez - the numbers weren't bad for about the first time in his career - anything approaching .250/.320 obp make this guy the #8 hitter and a valuable defensive element.
2. Drew Stubbs - was his second half a mirage or a stepping stone? Like Perez, with his defense and speed, he just needs to not be really bad to become a valuable CF.

When it comes to hitting some guys can gradully beome reasonably good - almost on a stealth basis. No one notices until they are 'suddenly' not bad. Concepcion comes to mind. So does Ozzie.

*BaseClogger*
12-16-2007, 03:07 PM
When it comes to hitting some guys can gradully beome reasonably good - almost on a stealth basis. No one notices until they are 'suddenly' not bad. Concepcion comes to mind. So does Ozzie.

As does Omar Vizquel

fearofpopvol1
12-16-2007, 05:21 PM
Frazier would be my pick. Everything about him just projects well.

TOBTTReds
12-16-2007, 05:42 PM
Darkhorse candidates to overcome some of the rap on their bats:
1. Miguel Perez - the numbers weren't bad for about the first time in his career - anything approaching .250/.320 obp make this guy the #8 hitter and a valuable defensive element.


Perez is currently a free agent I believe. I would love to have him back personally. But we'll see.

AdamDunn
12-16-2007, 05:53 PM
Our first round pick in the 2008 draft...

TOBTTReds
12-16-2007, 07:06 PM
I think it will be Waring....if he can make contact just a bit more frequently. He could hit 20 HR's in Dayton in the first half.

11larkin11
12-16-2007, 09:53 PM
Devin Mesoraco

Not reall, but I had to throw his name out there. I think it will be Lotzkar and Frazier, similair to how Bruce and Bailey are. Basically interchangeable, Bailey was better last year, Bruce this year.

corkedbat
12-16-2007, 11:33 PM
* Waring's power display @ Billings & in College was impressive, but I'd like to see how he handles pitching at a higher level (especially in terms of contact/plate discipline) to see where he falls between Bruce and Szmanski.

* I think that 08 will be a huge season for both Stubbs and Francisco (one way or the other

* As for the Top Prospect? I'd have to agree with Frazier as far as bats go and either Lotzkar or Roenicke (probably loses point for being a reliever, but could end up at the top)

* Dark horses? I think Dorn just keeps getting better and Daryl Thompson comes on strong another year removed from injury (Ditto Travis Wood)

gedred69
12-17-2007, 12:17 AM
shocking pick doug. :)

I'll go with Travis Wood. His fastball seems to be back where it was and IIRC he had the best changeup in the system.

As for position players, I think it'll be Dorn.

Uh yeah, Doug. I agree TRF, watch Dorn. He appears to be healthy after the shoulder mess, and has responded to every elevation. Remember, he skipped over low A Dayton, to high A Sarasota, and thrived when promoted to AA. That was like a 3 level jump in 1 year.....

AmarilloRed
12-17-2007, 01:24 AM
I really think it could be Danny Dorn.

SteelSD
12-17-2007, 02:23 AM
I see Todd Frazier coming quick. He may not end up at SS, but his bat was excellent last year and he's got a history of great plate discipline, extending back to his age-19 season at Rutgers. The selection of Frazier might be the best "value" draft pick made in a number of years by the Reds.

I consider Brandon Waring to be a guy John Sickels undervalued. Waring's K rate scared Sickels enough to place Waring outside the top 20 (#21), yet Waring and Stubbs produced an almost identical K rate in Billings at age 21. I consider Sickels' reasoning for downgrading Waring to be specious at best. Yeah, Stubbs might have been considered a better defensive CF in 2006 than Waring was a 3B in 2007, but the difference in offensive performance at the same age and level was far more extreme in Waring's favor. Stubbs has a quality I like (high IsoD), but he's yet to manifest a power component and he didn't demonstrate enough of a speed element in 2007 to make up for it (a 60% SB rate in 2007).

Blue
12-17-2007, 02:34 AM
Waring was not an early round draft pick and has not seen significant at-bats above Rookie ball. I think that is the entire reason he is ranked low, right or wrong.

TN Red Fan
12-17-2007, 02:47 AM
There are still good prospects outside the top-4. Roenicke is a little old put he'll be a closer one day. You still have Stubbs. If Maloney pitches well in AAA this year, I think he's a legitimate starter.

gedred69
12-17-2007, 10:08 PM
I really think it could be Danny Dorn.

That makes 3 of us. Time will tell..He's a hitter.

HokieRed
12-19-2007, 09:09 AM
I actually think it will be Stubbs, for whom I have, for some time, been predicting a breakout year. But here's a little different question, just to stir things up. If it's not a top pick of Krivsky's, should he be gone? Or, to think of it this way, how high does one of his picks have to be on one of the overall major league lists to save his job--assuming the Reds don't win the Central? Can we expect this new stud prospect--whoever he is--to be in the top 30by next year? top 50? Remember we fired both the GM's who brought in the "big 4." Doesn't Wayner's drafting have to be at least better than the fired GM's to keep his job?

KoryMac5
12-19-2007, 12:09 PM
Lotzkar, pitching is always at a premium.

camisadelgolf
12-19-2007, 01:55 PM
I actually think it will be Stubbs, for whom I have, for some time, been predicting a breakout year. But here's a little different question, just to stir things up. If it's not a top pick of Krivsky's, should he be gone? Or, to think of it this way, how high does one of his picks have to be on one of the overall major league lists to save his job--assuming the Reds don't win the Central? Can we expect this new stud prospect--whoever he is--to be in the top 30by next year? top 50? Remember we fired both the GM's who brought in the "big 4." Doesn't Wayner's drafting have to be at least better than the fired GM's to keep his job?

Neither Johnny Cueto nor Joey Votto were stud prospects within their first two years of being signed. Even with Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce, it took a little time for people to be convinced they were the real deal. I think Wayne Krivsky deserves a little more time to have the same, high-end production. Besides, when it comes to the drafts during Krivsky's tenure, the praise comes from the depth that has been acquired--not so much the 'stud' prospects.

HokieRed
12-19-2007, 02:05 PM
The depth is only depth because it hasn't shown yet. My post raises a serious topic. What's the highest ceiling for next year of the very best prospect Krivsky will have drafted? Two years into O'Brien's drafts we had guys in the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball. It seems at this point that Krivsky's drafts are very unlikely to come even close to that.

mlbfan30
12-19-2007, 02:46 PM
I think Lotzkar can become a top 10 overally prospect, but not next year. He really is comparable to Bailey in so many ways. Frazier, Stubbs, and Lotzkar could probably be top 50 prospect next year. Frazier would have a Votto like status as a low ceiling, high floor type player. Stubbs would be considered one of those toolsy great defensive players and could jump to the top 20 if he performs really well next year.

dougdirt
12-19-2007, 07:06 PM
The depth is only depth because it hasn't shown yet. My post raises a serious topic. What's the highest ceiling for next year of the very best prospect Krivsky will have drafted? Two years into O'Brien's drafts we had guys in the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball. It seems at this point that Krivsky's drafts are very unlikely to come even close to that.

I think Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs could both end up Top 10 prospects next year if things go right for them. I fully expect both Stubbs and Frazier to end next season in AA and have very good seasons.

HokieRed
12-19-2007, 08:09 PM
Doug, I hope you're right. I'm less optimistic. I don't see either of those players as ever profiling that high, but if they're in the top 30 I'll be happy. But we will see. We'll revisit these predictions in a year.

flash
12-20-2007, 09:36 AM
I'll go with Adam Rosales and Michael Griffin. Rosales did well in winter ball.

dougdirt
12-20-2007, 11:34 AM
I'll go with Adam Rosales and Michael Griffin. Rosales did well in winter ball.

I would be very surprised if that happened simply because of the age of the two guys. Generally guys that old (Rosales will be 25 and Griffin 24), even if performing very good aren't going to be top prospects simply because of their age and others percieved upside at younger ages. I would say that both should have very solid seasons next year though.