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dougdirt
12-17-2007, 01:37 PM
Vote for the player who you think is the Reds #18 prospect (the best prospect who is not yet on the list). We will go with this as far as you guys want to take it.

I will post a new list every 2 days with 10-15 options to vote on.

If you feel like making an argument on why a guy should be voted here, feel free to vote and state why you voted for that player.

If there is someone that is not currently listed as an option to vote on, vote for 'other' then just state who you want to vote for in the thread.

If there is anyone you would like to see as an option on the next poll, just say so and if they garner enough support, they will be placed on the next poll. Guys with the lowest amount of votes will usually be removed for the next few guys who were talked about in the previous thread.


Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier
Prospect 6 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect 7 - Matt Maloney
Prospect 8 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect 9 - Travis Wood
Prospect 10 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect 11 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect 12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect 13 - Sean Watson
Prospect 14 - Carlos Fisher
Prospect 15 - Juan Francisco
Prospect 16 - Neftali Soto
Prospect 17 - Brandon Waring

Blue
12-17-2007, 02:38 PM
Daryl Thompson:

3.18 ERA, 133 IP, 122 H, 121 K, 33 BB overall last season between Dayton and Sarasota.

2.55 ERA, 49.1 IP, 44 H, 45 K, 14 BB in his last 10 starts at Sarasota.

He outpitched Sean Watson at the same levels, and pitched twice as much at High-A. Low-maybe mid-90s FB, solid curve, decent changeup.

He'll be at AA this year. He might even start the season there.

camisadelgolf
12-17-2007, 02:43 PM
This is one of the few picks in which I'm going with production over ceiling: Adam Rosales.

dougdirt
12-17-2007, 02:48 PM
Adam Rosales for me

He hit .286/.385/.519 combined this year between A+ and AA. He hits lefties and righties about the same and has the ability to play first base and third base.

He is an advanced bat in the upper minors who can play several positions. He will probably start in AAA next year, so he is very close and has performed very well with the exception of an injury plagued 2006. He lit the world on fire in 2005 and did pretty much the same in 2007.

Blue
12-17-2007, 02:50 PM
This is one of the few picks in which I'm going with production over ceiling: Adam Rosales.

I think we are to the point now where a lot of these guys are interchangeable. Its a matter of whether you prefer performance or potential, starting pitchers against position players, relief pitchers against everyone else. I personally wouldn't vote for Pelland until Thompson and Rosales are selected, but its really not that big of a difference. These guys will all be at AA or higher this season and have performed well. It says a lot for the system that one of them will be ranked as low as #20.

Kc61
12-17-2007, 03:06 PM
I think Pelland and Rosales are the two next guys. I view Pelland as a good lefty non-closer reliever. I view Rosales as probably a good backup corner infielder.

I think a lefty reliever is probably a shade more important than a good backup non-shortstop infielder. Also Pelland is closer to the major leagues, having done well at AAA, and will only be 24 this season.

Pelland, then Rosales next.

Doug, I think Janish needs to be on the list since he was top ten on many lists a year ago.

camisadelgolf
12-17-2007, 03:09 PM
If people want to pick a left-handed reliever, I'd go with Pedro Viola. After Rosales is picked, that's who I'm going with.

Blue
12-17-2007, 03:15 PM
If people want to pick a left-handed reliever, I'd go with Pedro Viola. After Rosales is picked, that's who I'm going with.

Just went back and looked at his stats. You're right. He was pretty amazing. I have no idea what he throws, which would make me hesitant to vote for him. I'll vote for him at #21, provided that Pelland, Rosales, and Thompson go in some order 18-20.

dougdirt
12-17-2007, 03:16 PM
Doug, I think Janish needs to be on the list since he was top ten on many lists a year ago.
Will do.

AmarilloRed
12-17-2007, 03:55 PM
I will keep voting for Pedro until he makes it. He did really well last year.

TRF
12-17-2007, 04:29 PM
I will keep voting for Pedro until he makes it. He did really well last year.

I think Pelland was better, and at more advanced levels.

Orenda
12-17-2007, 06:01 PM
Does anybody have a scouting report on Travis Webb? He had some decent numbers with Dayton and he has the advantage of being a southpaw. Also, Juan Rafeal who came over from the DSL had a solid season at two levels. I don't know anything about either one are these guys worth keeping an eye on?

11larkin11
12-17-2007, 06:07 PM
...Still going with Rosales

*BaseClogger*
12-17-2007, 08:33 PM
I'm not voting for a relief pitcher until all the good young starting pitchers (Thompson) are off the list...

OnBaseMachine
12-17-2007, 08:42 PM
I'll again go with Pedro Viola. This is a guy who posted a 1.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 10.3 K/9 while allowing only 5 homers in 82.1 innings between Dayton, Sarasota, and Chattanooga this season. He also pitched in the AFL and struggled in three of his first four appearances but threw four scoreless innings of one hit ball while striking out six in his final four outings. He could begin this season in Louisville and possibly make an appearance in Cincinnati before the end of the season. I think he profiles as a Damaso Marte type reliever.

HokieRed
12-17-2007, 08:58 PM
I'm going with Rosales even though I think he's actually about the 10th best prospect in the organization and should have been picked long ago. That means no votes this round for Evan Hildenbrandt, which is a shame. I don't see why his not pitching minor league baseball this summer would keep him from getting votes. It doesn't affect his upside one bit. Why when other guys play only a little bit and come in looking worse than their projection does that not hurt them more--Mesoraco, for instance? I don't say this as a knock on Mesoraco, whom I like. I just think we sometimes put an absurd amount of weight on a very low number of appearances in rookie ball. I'll say it again. Take a look at the Hildenbrandt video. You've got a guy with a great frame, throws an easy low 90's with one of the simplest, most rhythmical motions you'll ever see. This is as an 18 year old.

mlbfan30
12-17-2007, 09:21 PM
If the Pellend and Viola people just agree on 1 guy, then they could be the next two off the list. They are stealing eachothers votes, and both probably should have been off 2-3 picks ago. It's really close but I say vote Pellend 1st for the simple fact that he has pitched well in AAA while Viola only AA.

BoydsOfSummer
12-17-2007, 09:53 PM
I think those two are my next two.

Mario-Rijo
12-17-2007, 10:19 PM
Daryl Thompson:

3.18 ERA, 133 IP, 122 H, 121 K, 33 BB overall last season between Dayton and Sarasota.

2.55 ERA, 49.1 IP, 44 H, 45 K, 14 BB in his last 10 starts at Sarasota.

He outpitched Sean Watson at the same levels, and pitched twice as much at High-A. Low-maybe mid-90s FB, solid curve, decent changeup.

He'll be at AA this year. He might even start the season there.

As much as I formerly liked Thompson the more I look at the #'s the more I wonder if he can make it at all. Sure the #'s look fine until you start to project that out to stiffer competition down the road a bit. He already has more IP's than K's and his hits are right up there with his IP's. I'm starting to see him as a AAAA/fringy starter kind of guy who will get held back at some point to be dangled as trade bait, ala Medlock and Guevara. I also feel the same about Lecure. Someone tell me why I'm wrong here and I may consider changing my view on it.

Pelland and Rosales are solid choices here as well but I feel the same way OBM does about Viola he has just kicked tail wherever he has gone to this point, so until he hiccups he has my vote. Of course he's had my vote for a long time.

BigRed07
12-17-2007, 11:44 PM
I noticed that in Dougdirts end of the season Top 40 that Valaika was 16 and Turner 18. What has changed since the end of the season for them to drop out of the Top 20? I think that they are both deserving of a Top 20 ranking based on their performances in 06 and 07. Valaika was the 06 POY and an 07 all-star. Turner was a 06 and 07 all-star (mid-season and Post season ) They were in the top 5 for total hits in the Reds organization this year.
1.Griffin 171
2.Bruce 166
3.Turner 149
4.Valaika 147
5.Votto 146(not including MLB)

*BaseClogger*
12-17-2007, 11:53 PM
As much as I formerly liked Thompson the more I look at the #'s the more I wonder if he can make it at all. Sure the #'s look fine until you start to project that out to stiffer competition down the road a bit. He already has more IP's than K's and his hits are right up there with his IP's. I'm starting to see him as a AAAA/fringy starter kind of guy who will get held back at some point to be dangled as trade bait, ala Medlock and Guevara. I also feel the same about Lecure. Someone tell me why I'm wrong here and I may consider changing my view on it.

Solid control (career 2.7 BB/9)? Considered to have quite a bit of upside before injury problems (was ranked n. 7 Nationals prospect by BA)?

dougdirt
12-18-2007, 12:15 AM
I noticed that in Dougdirts end of the season Top 40 that Valaika was 16 and Turner 18. What has changed since the end of the season for them to drop out of the Top 20? I think that they are both deserving of a Top 20 ranking based on their performances in 06 and 07. Valaika was the 06 POY and an 07 all-star. Turner was a 06 and 07 all-star (mid-season and Post season ) They were in the top 5 for total hits in the Reds organization this year.
1.Griffin 171
2.Bruce 166
3.Turner 149
4.Valaika 147
5.Votto 146(not including MLB)

For me, nothing has changed. The problem is guys I have ranked higher are still not voted on, so I am voting for the highest ranked guy I have left. It was Adam Rosales, who I had at #14.

Blue
12-18-2007, 12:23 AM
He had a K:BB ratio of almost 4:1. There's not really anything wrong with those overall K numbers, either. They aren't the numbers of an elite prospect, but they're good enough for top 20 in the system. Remember, he's still young. He is yet to throw a pitch as a 22 year old, and he could very well start the season in AA. That's nothing to sneeze at.

camisadelgolf
12-18-2007, 02:41 AM
After Rosales, the next position player on my board is Justin Turner. I will try to sandwich Pedro Viola in-between there, though.

Kc61
12-18-2007, 10:00 AM
Another runoff?

*BaseClogger*
12-18-2007, 01:13 PM
Another runoff?

It better be a four man runoff... And like the last one I don't think it will solve anything...

TOBTTReds
12-18-2007, 01:20 PM
It better be a four man runoff... And like the last one I don't think it will solve anything...

DT and PV are 5+ votes off. I say leave them out and just do two. A sprint to 20 votes! Or whatever the system is.

As far as not solving anything, we are talking about the #18 and 19 prospects. It shouldn't be a big deal if someone wins by one point. Bigger things have been decided by lesser margins (like my fantasy team that couldn't get a lousy 6 points from plaxico or berrian!!! They got 5! And I lost by 1 point, and lost out on $200/$350) Sorry.

Danny Serafini
12-18-2007, 02:06 PM
The poll is still open for another two days, it may yet settle itself.

dougdirt
12-18-2007, 02:14 PM
This poll is good until tomorrow afternoon sometime, if at that time there is a need for a runoff, anyone within 3 votes of the top guy will be placed into the runoff.

kheidg-
12-18-2007, 03:40 PM
I'm not voting for a relief pitcher until all the good young starting pitchers (Thompson) are off the list...

If more people used that same logic I don't know why Roenicke is ranked our #7 best prospect

dougdirt
12-18-2007, 03:52 PM
If more people used that same logic I don't know why Roenicke is ranked our #7 best prospect

Roenicke projects a little better than Viola or Pelland at the same time though.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2007, 06:05 PM
Solid control (career 2.7 BB/9)? Considered to have quite a bit of upside before injury problems (was ranked n. 7 Nationals prospect by BA)?

That first part is fair but he's still seems to be giving up too many hits for my liking, although I am not giving up on him just yet, just think Viola, Pelland and Rosales are clearly better bets at this point.

The 2nd part doesn't exactly say a whole lot, they had about 2 or 3 prospects worth even considering above A ball last year. That said I still like him just beginning to get on the fence about him.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2007, 06:11 PM
DT and PV are 5+ votes off. I say leave them out and just do two. A sprint to 20 votes! Or whatever the system is.

As far as not solving anything, we are talking about the #18 and 19 prospects. It shouldn't be a big deal if someone wins by one point. Bigger things have been decided by lesser margins (like my fantasy team that couldn't get a lousy 6 points from plaxico or berrian!!! They got 5! And I lost by 1 point, and lost out on $200/$350) Sorry.

On the runoff I think Pedro is on par with these 2 so I would like to see him in that runoff. Again I think Viola, Rosales and Pelland are all close and Thompson isn't but that's just my opinion.

Sorry to hear about that Fantasy loss though. I am in 3 Championship games this coming weekend though and it's about time. I am the Dan Marino of Fantasy Football, been playing since the early nineties and have always been a dominant scorer in the regular season but get to the playoffs and choke with the exception of 2 championships I co-GM'ed. So I finally decided to take another approach to the regular season the last few years and here I am on the doorstep of greatness. ;)

*BaseClogger*
12-18-2007, 06:32 PM
If more people used that same logic I don't know why Roenicke is ranked our #7 best prospect

I don't know either...

Danny Serafini
12-18-2007, 06:47 PM
Roenicke is quickly becoming one of the board's most overrated prospects. He's not in that rarefied Milton Loo territory, but he's pretty far up the list.

Blue
12-18-2007, 08:01 PM
Well, I wouldn't have put him that high, but the board is in good company. Baseball America liked him well enough to rank him 9th.

RedsManRick
12-18-2007, 08:24 PM
What's interesting to me, and what is frustrating about these kind of lists, is that they have the appearance of being interval. That somehow the difference between 7 and 12 is the same as the difference between 2 and 7. Or worse, the difference between 5 and 20 versus 25 and 40. In reality, I've got say I'm more comfortable with something like the Sickels approach, with tiers instead of the interval one vs. another.

A: Bruce
A-: Cueto, Votto
B+: Bailey, Frazier
B: Maloney, Moreseco
B-: Stubbs, Lotzkar, Dorn
C+: Burton, Pelland, Viola, Wood, Roenicke, Carroll, Valaika, Rosales, Watson, Waring

You can see the pyramid of talent so much more clearly. I feel like we could do this again tomorrow and our 8 through 20 could be completely backwards.

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 09:33 PM
There might be an obvious answer to this question but I can't see it. Assuming Votto is rated so highly, why is everyone so eager to trade him? I understand that first baseman are easier prospects to replace than other positions, but it has been years since the Reds developed a good one. I would have to think Tony Perez was the last good one we had. There really is no way of telling when we will develop an equally talented prospect, and for that reason I am not eager to trade Joey Votto.

gedred69
12-18-2007, 11:06 PM
There might be an obvious answer to this question but I can't see it. Assuming Votto is rated so highly, why is everyone so eager to trade him? I understand that first baseman are easier prospects to replace than other positions, but it has been years since the Reds developed a good one. I would have to think Tony Perez was the last good one we had. There really is no way of telling when we will develop an equally talented prospect, and for that reason I am not eager to trade Joey Votto.

Agreed. Votto tore up the minors everywhere he played, the only exception being High A Potomac, when O'Brien mandated all minor leaguers take the 1st pitch. Votto has been quoted as saying that really screwed up his approach to hitting. At the very least, the Reds need to see what he can do, he appointed himself very well in his Sept. cameo. Hell, he threatened to win the quadruple crown at Chattanooga!

kheidg-
12-18-2007, 11:48 PM
Roenicke projects a little better than Viola or Pelland at the same time though.

I don't see how this is possible. Maybe because he is more inexperienced as an actual pitcher.

What I see that gives the argument of Pelland over Roenicke, is Pelland is younger (23 vs. 24), has pitched 4 times as many innings since being converted to a reliever vs. Roenicke converted from a position player, and pitched impressively at AA and AAA last season vs. Roenicke only 19 innings at AA.

I am not saying Roenicke will not be good and I agree with the point that he is just recently converted, but him being #7 and Pelland barely getting a sniff at #18 is flat out ridiculous.

dougdirt
12-18-2007, 11:52 PM
I don't see how this is possible. Maybe because he is more inexperienced as an actual pitcher.

What I see that gives the argument of Pelland over Roenicke, is Pelland is younger (23 vs. 24), has pitched 4 times as many innings since being converted to a reliever vs. Roenicke converted from a position player, and pitched impressively at AA and AAA last season vs. Roenicke only 19 innings at AA.

I am not saying Roenicke will not be good and I agree with the point that he is just recently converted, but him being #7 and Pelland barely getting a sniff at #18 is flat out ridiculous.

Well Roenicke was not really a pitcher in college, so you are right about the inexperience. He also throws harder and has a better offspeed pitch than Pelland does. I think Roenicke at #7 is a little high, but not overly high, but Pelland at seems to be heading for where he should be. Not a slight on Pelland. In other systems he would be much higher than he currently is. Just going by say John Sickels grading scale, Pelland would have been top 10 in several systems.

Ron Madden
12-19-2007, 02:54 AM
There might be an obvious answer to this question but I can't see it. Assuming Votto is rated so highly, why is everyone so eager to trade him? I understand that first baseman are easier prospects to replace than other positions, but it has been years since the Reds developed a good one. I would have to think Tony Perez was the last good one we had. There really is no way of telling when we will develop an equally talented prospect, and for that reason I am not eager to trade Joey Votto.


Everyone should take this poll for what it is. (Speculation & Hope) :)

I wouldn't be surpised if the Reds drafted or traded for my old butt, that I wouldn't show up in this poll. ( I'll soon be 54 years friggin old)


Tony Perez spent the bulk of his time in the minors as a middle infielder. We never know for sure.. do we?

stormyfan25
12-19-2007, 11:01 AM
Here is why Roenicke is overrated. The kid has only pitched for a little under 2 years. He did very well in high A but once the second half of the year came along he couldnt stay healthy. Yes he throws smoke, yes he has a nasty knuckle curve. But will the kid be able to stay healthy???? He struggled to do so in his first full year having to miss most of the second half and then missed the entire AZFL. He struggled when he had to go back to back days out of the pen. Dont you think that you need a reliever that can be a horse for you. Look at Weathers for the Reds. The guys has below average stuff but he can pitch! and he get in a TON of games. Thats what i want in a reliever. I want a work horse.

dougdirt
12-19-2007, 11:16 AM
Here is why Roenicke is overrated. The kid has only pitched for a little under 2 years. He did very well in high A but once the second half of the year came along he couldnt stay healthy. Yes he throws smoke, yes he has a nasty knuckle curve. But will the kid be able to stay healthy???? He struggled to do so in his first full year having to miss most of the second half and then missed the entire AZFL. He struggled when he had to go back to back days out of the pen. Dont you think that you need a reliever that can be a horse for you. Look at Weathers for the Reds. The guys has below average stuff but he can pitch! and he get in a TON of games. Thats what i want in a reliever. I want a work horse.

Roenicke throws a knuckle curve? First I have heard of that. Are you confusing him with Sean Watson a bit (only guy that throws a true knuckle curve that I know of who is a flame thrower the Reds have). As far as not staying healthy.... so long as his injuries aren't arm related (which they haven't been), then its not a big deal. As for pitching back to back days, in the minors especially, that is something that isn't worth looking at.

camisadelgolf
12-19-2007, 01:52 PM
I'm not trying to rile any feathers, but I think stormyfan25 may be a troll.

TOBTTReds
12-19-2007, 04:29 PM
I'm not trying to rile any feathers, but I think stormyfan25 may be a troll.

Maybe he is just afraid that Weathers is going to get over thrown by Roenicke mid season? ;)

stormyfan25
12-19-2007, 10:27 PM
He had elbow problems the entire second half and was on a off the field because of it. The elbow is why he didnt pitch in the AFL. Yes he throws a knuckle curve and a slider. his knuckle curve left him mid way through the year and he switched over to the slider and cutter. Plus pitching consecutive days is very important to me. You think one day when he makes the bigs hes magically going to be able to do it? So tell me why its not valuable. Some things people say on this site make no baseball logic sense at all

dougdirt
12-19-2007, 10:32 PM
He did pitch in back to back games last year. I don't have a game log for him that covers the entire season, but he did pitch back to back games in early August (5th and 6th followed by a day of rest, then pitched on the 8th and 9th).

TOBTTReds
12-20-2007, 12:42 AM
He had elbow problems the entire second half and was on a off the field because of it. The elbow is why he didnt pitch in the AFL. Yes he throws a knuckle curve and a slider. his knuckle curve left him mid way through the year and he switched over to the slider and cutter. Plus pitching consecutive days is very important to me. You think one day when he makes the bigs hes magically going to be able to do it? So tell me why its not valuable. Some things people say on this site make no baseball logic sense at all

KeyMastur part 2? Break out some game logs if you are going to say he didn't pitch b2b games. You got nothing here, esp. when someone else, a respected poster claims he has, and with dates.

stormyfan25
12-20-2007, 01:07 PM
pitching and pitching well are two different things. he wasnt as effective on the second day

dougdirt
12-20-2007, 01:27 PM
pitching and pitching well are two different things. he wasnt as effective on the second day

What?

I gave you two examples. Here are his lines from those 'second days' where he wasn't as effective.

First example (Aug 6th) - 1ip, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 0 K.

Second example (Aug 9th) - 1ip, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 walks, 0 K. For what its worth, the previous day he allowed 2 hits in the 1 inning he worked.

Now like I said, I don't have a full game log for him, but I do know those two examples as they were a part of his last 10 games and I can view that game log. I think you are reaching quite a bit on this though.

stormyfan25
12-20-2007, 06:34 PM
obviously you didnt get a chance to see the games or hear them. Those 6 outs in those examples were not exactly easy outs. But i do agree that hes a flamethrower

dougdirt
12-20-2007, 06:55 PM
obviously you didnt get a chance to see the games or hear them. Those 6 outs in those examples were not exactly easy outs. But i do agree that hes a flamethrower

First off, I doubt you recall those exact games I am referring to. Secondly, here is the game log from both of those games:

August 6th, 2007

Jacksonville Top 9th

* Pitcher Change: Josh Roenicke replaces Matthew Maloney, batting 9th.
* Kevin Howard pops out to shortstop Luis Bolivar.
* A. J. Ellis reaches on throwing error by third baseman Enrique Cruz.
* Alberto ConcepcionJr. grounds into double play, shortstop Luis Bolivar to second baseman Drew Anderson to first baseman Adam Rosales. A. Ellis out at 2nd.

So he gets a pop up to shortstop, a guy reaches on a throwing error and he gets a groundball double play. Three balls put in play and three balls hit to infielders. That one seemed pretty easy.

How about the game on August 9th

Montgomery Bottom 9th

* Pitcher Change: Josh Roenicke replaces Carlos Guevara.
* Reid Brignac grounds out, second baseman Drew Anderson to first baseman Caonabo Cosme.
* John Jaso singles on a fly ball to center fielder Marland Williams.
* Gabriel Martinez grounds into double play, second baseman Drew Anderson to shortstop Luis Bolivar to first baseman Caonabo Cosme. John Jaso out at 2nd.

So we have a ground out to a Top prospect in Brignac. A harmless flyball to CF that was likely a blooper if it was just a single, then a ground ball double play to end the game. Again, that looks pretty easy to me.

Maybe he threw tons of pitches in those games to get those outs.... I don't know. Its data that I can't look at. However by the looks of what we do know (1 single to the centerfielder and a bunch of balls hit to infielders) suggests he didn't struggle much at all in those six outs we are talking about.