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View Full Version : With this organization's depth at 3b....



Edd Roush
12-17-2007, 11:30 PM
Why not structure a package for Bedard around EdE? I personally am an EdE fan, but as I have tried to explain to some of my friends, I would be a much bigger fan of adding another ace. I have been stalking around the Orioles Hangout and they all seem to ask about him.

So why not Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Hamilton and Bailey/Cueto for Bedard and Mora?

Orioles fans seem to want to give Mora away and they have also about talked about wanting a middle of the order hitter (Hamilton) and a potential ace Bailey/Cueto.

I really think Bedard puts us over the top and Mora will put up similar numbers to Encarnacion in '08.

I would also like to add a little more to the deal, but wouldn't let it break the original deal by throwing in "B" minor league talent like Stubbs or Maloney for Bradford.

So fellow 'Zoners, what do you think?

*BaseClogger*
12-18-2007, 12:30 AM
Sounds like the best proposal I have seen for winning in 2008.
Personally, I'm still in the win in 2009 camp, which means not trading ANY of the young talent...

Krawhitham
12-18-2007, 12:35 AM
because he is a right handed bat

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 12:41 AM
because he is a right handed bat

And so is Melvin Mora. Basically, I see Mora giving nearly the same production as Encarnacion in '08 and then having one of our many talented third baseman prospects step up in '09.

My point is Encarnacion should not be a deal breaker here just as Cueto shouldn't have been a deal breaker as alleged in Oakland.

My question is would you do Encarnacion/Hamilton/Bailey or Cueto for Mora and Bedard?

thatcoolguy_22
12-18-2007, 12:42 AM
force the O's to throw in cash to cover mora's contract and I would not mind this trade at all. This year we will probably not lose any production between losing EE and gaining Mora. Hopefully someone like Todd Frazier can develop quickly to take over for the now 35 year old league average 3rd baseman

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 12:45 AM
That's exactly what i was trying to say coolguy. Although, I don't want the vaunted "cash" to be the reason this deal doesn't get done.

thatcoolguy_22
12-18-2007, 12:46 AM
That's exactly what i was trying to say coolguy. Although, I don't want the vaunted "cash" to be the reason this deal doesn't get done.

I think we need that cash to be able to sign a FA to fill out our rotation this year...

*BaseClogger*
12-18-2007, 01:00 AM
I'd still rather we do a trade in which we don't give up any pitching ie:Bailey and we just give up Hamilton/EdE...

thatcoolguy_22
12-18-2007, 01:04 AM
I'd still rather we do a trade in which we don't give up any pitching ie:Bailey and we just give up Hamilton/EdE...

I would as well. If we could substitute a Maloney/wood/Lotzkar instead of bailey or Cueto it would be ideal. Honestly with both Hamilton and EE involved it would be lopsided in the O's favor if one of our big 2 pitching prospects were also included

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 01:05 AM
I'd still rather we do a trade in which we don't give up any pitching ie:Bailey and we just give up Hamilton/EdE...

Unfortunately, I don't think that's enough to get a deal done. Most on Oriole Hangout are looking for Bailey/Cueto AND Hamilton AND Votto.

Personally, I am a huge fan of both Votto and Bruce so I want to keep them around at all costs. So I am looking to construct a deal that would both be realistic (ie enough for Bedard) but at the same time be good for the Reds.

So I don't think that Hamilton/EdE/ anything but Jay Bruce or Votto AND Stubbs is enough for Bedard. Plus, the Orioles do want some pitching and I am personally fine with dealing one of the Big 2 but not both.

I think a rotation of
Harang
Bedard
Arroyo
Belisle
Bailey/Maloney/ cheap FA pickup
would work for me

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 01:08 AM
I would as well. If we could substitute a Maloney/wood/Lotzkar instead of bailey or Cueto it would be ideal. Honestly with both Hamilton and EE involved it would be lopsided in the O's favor if one of our big 2 pitching prospects were also included

It may in fact be lopsided in their favor, but remember it's not like Bedard gave an edict to the Orioles front office to deal him to the Reds' or no one. We are competing with the Mariners right now and they have a lot of talent to trade.

Personally, I think a trade of Hamilton/EdE/Cueto is better than what I think the M's will offer. I hope Krivsky is thinking along the same lines.

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 01:33 AM
And so is Melvin Mora. Basically, I see Mora giving nearly the same production as Encarnacion in '08 and then having one of our many talented third baseman prospects step up in '09.

My point is Encarnacion should not be a deal breaker here just as Cueto shouldn't have been a deal breaker as alleged in Oakland.

My question is would you do Encarnacion/Hamilton/Bailey or Cueto for Mora and Bedard?

The only problem I see is that all our third base prospects are some way from making the majors. Rosales is the closest, and he is at AA. You would be counting on him to put in one full year of experience at AAA, and then be ready to take over for Mora in 2009. It is possible, but it is just as likely he might take longer to develop.

Blue
12-18-2007, 01:34 AM
You know, in the multi-prospect deals of the past, I have it in my head that those prospects were not all major league ready players. They were elite prospects but had not seen the higher levels of the minor leagues. That's how you could justify one of those trades. You're trading a lot of players who could help in a couple years for a good player who can help you now. That made sense because there was a lot of risk in those prospects. One or two might pan out and become excellent players, and the trade would be worth it in the long run.

What people seem to want to do now is trade 2 or 3 major league ready players for one player. That doesn't make any sense. There is substantially less risk with Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Bruce, and Votto than there is in 5 A-ball players with elite prospect status. The long run that our trading partner is looking at here is pretty short. In the relatively short term, seems we want to trade 2 or 3 good players for 1.

I don't get it.

Hondo
12-18-2007, 03:14 AM
Love it, Do it.

Then sign Mora to be the Third Base coach in 5 years... Whatever it takes!

Thanks

Krawhitham
12-18-2007, 04:58 AM
And so is Melvin Mora. Basically, I see Mora giving nearly the same production as Encarnacion in '08 and then having one of our many talented third baseman prospects step up in '09.

My point is Encarnacion should not be a deal breaker here just as Cueto shouldn't have been a deal breaker as alleged in Oakland.

My question is would you do Encarnacion/Hamilton/Bailey or Cueto for Mora and Bedard?

Mora is 35 and has been on a step decline for the last 3 years. 104 RBI in 2004 and 58 last season. EE lead the team in average and had 76 RBI last season, plus that is with him missing 2 weeks to the minors and only batting .221 in April. He defense was out standing in the 2nd half.

If you want to trade someone trade a left hander. This team is almost an automatic lose when facing a left hander. EE hit .284 VS left last season. Mora 254 with no power or production

Mora will cost 16 million over the next 2 season he is signed through 2009 with 1 million buyout for 2010

thatcoolguy_22
12-18-2007, 05:05 AM
Mora is 35 and has been on a step decline for the last 3 years. 104 RBI in 2004 and 58 last season. EE lead the team in average and had 76 RBI last season, plus that is with him missing 2 weeks to the minors and only batting .221 in April. He defense was out standing in the 2nd half.

If you want to trade someone trade a left hander. This team is almost an automatic lose when facing a left hander. EE hit .284 VS left last season. Mora 254 with no power or production

Mora will cost 16 million over the next 2 season he is signed through 2009 with 1 million buyout for 2010

I didn't realize he had 2 years left. I was under the assumption this was his last year.

Accepting Mora in a trade will lower the cost of Bedard.

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 12:24 PM
I didn't realize he had 2 years left. I was under the assumption this was his last year.

Accepting Mora in a trade will lower the cost of Bedard.

That is a pretty ugly contract. I didn't realize how big Mora's decline has really been. As I said in the original post though, I am an EdE fan but a rotation led by Harang, Bedard and Arroyo is a World Series caliber rotation and a lineup of

Votto
Phillips
Dunn
Griffey
Bruce
Mora
Gonzales
Ross
Pitcher

would be at least league average. I understand that Dunn and Griffey may not be here in '09, but if we have success in '08 it will be hard for Castellini to let him go.

The point of this thread is I'd rather trade EdE than Votto, if Hamilton is being traded too. We have more replacements ready at 3B in the minors than we do at 1b. If we trade Votto, we have Hatte this year and then who in '09? A converted outfielder who makes room for below average outfielders (Freel or Hopper)?

I am just starting to get excited and want the Reds to go for it. I am 19 years old and the most success I can remember this team having was the frigid playoff loss to the Mets in 99. I want to see a successful Reds ballclub and if they keep pushing back the window, I might start feeling like a Cubs' fan.

Terps
12-18-2007, 12:29 PM
Mora has a NTC and would most likely veto a deal to Cincinnati. I say most likely because he has said he'd only accept a trade to Philadelphia, but who knows, that might change if he was going with Bedard. I doubt it though.

Also, I really doubt the O's trade Bedard to the Reds without getting either Votto or Bruce back. (Votto, since the Reds won't trade Bruce.)

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 01:21 PM
Mora has a NTC and would most likely veto a deal to Cincinnati. I say most likely because he has said he'd only accept a trade to Philadelphia, but who knows, that might change if he was going with Bedard. I doubt it though.

Also, I really doubt the O's trade Bedard to the Reds without getting either Votto or Bruce back. (Votto, since the Reds won't trade Bruce.)

Thanks for the information, Terps. Is Mora's NTC because he is a 10/5? Because giving a middling player like Mora a NTC is a bad idea.

I really don't want to deal Votto, as I have said earlier, because I am afraid that we will have problems moving some one to first.

The more I think about it, the less I think this deal will happen. I wonder who told Fay that there was a 75% chance this deal would get done and then subsequently a 50% chance. It just doesn't seem Krivsky-esque to say something like that and I don't know who Krivsky would tell that kind of information to.

I don't think I'd do Encarnacion/Votto/Cueto.

I guess I'd consider Votto/Cueto/Maloney/Stubbs, which seems to be similar to the alleged deal on the table.

I(heart)Freel
12-18-2007, 01:26 PM
Small sample size last year, to be sure, but I don't see why Keppinger isn't in the plans for third base. That makes packaging Edwin a LOT better in my mind.

HokieRed
12-18-2007, 02:21 PM
The fact the deal hasn't come off suggests pretty clearly, IMHO, that all our speculation about packages means nothing to McPhail. He wants one player (together with some others); that player's name is Jay Bruce; and he's willing to bet that there is enough at stake for Wayner that if he waits long enough he will get exactly that, Jay Bruce. I'm betting McPhail is right.

Blue
12-18-2007, 02:40 PM
Mora wouldn't want to waive his no-trade clause because he has young quintuplets, who I assume are in Baltimore.

Edd Roush
12-18-2007, 04:23 PM
Mora wouldn't want to waive his no-trade clause because he has young quintuplets, who I assume are in Baltimore.


He can't raise quintuplets in Cincinnati? I don't think that's a very big reason.

As for Hokie's reasoning, I bet he may be right. But I think there is a much higher chance of us not trading for Bedard, than us dealing Bruce. I really think Bruce will be a life-long Red. I see no way that we deal him this off-season or in any subsequent off-season.

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 04:45 PM
Small sample size last year, to be sure, but I don't see why Keppinger isn't in the plans for third base. That makes packaging Edwin a LOT better in my mind.

We need to see Keppinger duplicate his strong year next year before he starts at third base and we trade Edwin. Remember David Ross!

Blue
12-18-2007, 05:01 PM
He can't raise quintuplets in Cincinnati? I don't think that's a very big reason.

As for Hokie's reasoning, I bet he may be right. But I think there is a much higher chance of us not trading for Bedard, than us dealing Bruce. I really think Bruce will be a life-long Red. I see no way that we deal him this off-season or in any subsequent off-season.

Would you want to move a seven-person family half way across the country when you didn't have to, for a job that gives you no increase in income? We're talking about 5 little kids here!

gedred69
12-18-2007, 10:13 PM
We need to see Keppinger duplicate his strong year next year before he starts at third base and we trade Edwin. Remember David Ross!

At ST last March, Keppinger had this team made until he was injured, that was obvious early on. Baseball people knew he had at least decent skills. Ross in '06 on the other hand, came out of essentially nowhere. Not a fair comparison, IMO. Is Kepp' up to it? I dunno. But I sure liked what I saw last season, and attribute it to whatever, I think his performance had an impact on waking up EE, to where he thought, "dang, I need to step it up".

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 10:20 PM
I was one of Keppinger's biggest fans last year,but he needs to show he can do it consistantly before we move Edwin in a trade. I am not sure he has the experience at third to take over the starting job next year. Still, it is an interesting idea to consider.

gedred69
12-18-2007, 10:40 PM
I was one of Keppinger's biggest fans last year,but he needs to show he can do it consistantly before we move Edwin in a trade. I am not sure he has the experience at third to take over the starting job next year. Still, it is an interesting idea to consider.

You are correct sir. And again, if it could bring the Reds the guy that puts them over the top, I'd roll the dice.

Terps
12-18-2007, 11:06 PM
Thanks for the information, Terps. Is Mora's NTC because he is a 10/5? Because giving a middling player like Mora a NTC is a bad idea.

Unfortunately his NTC was part of the extension we signed him to last year. Sort of a gesture of loyalty/appreciation for a guy that fans liked, and who has like 7 kids to take care of. Not really the best baseball move though :(

Carolina Red
12-18-2007, 11:12 PM
We have Keppinger who in my opinion is just as good a defensive 3rd baseman and a much better hitter than EE. I would not, however, trade either of our young pitchers and especially not Hamilton. We have these guys locked up cheap for several years. We can't afford Bedard after his contract runs out.

I(heart)Freel
12-18-2007, 11:13 PM
You are correct sir. And again, if it could bring the Reds the guy that puts them over the top, I'd roll the dice.

If by including Edwin it means saving either Votto or Hamilton, I think I do it. And it's honestly because I could live with Kepp (and some Freel) over at the hot corner, regression or not.

gedred69
12-18-2007, 11:53 PM
If by including Edwin it means saving either Votto or Hamilton, I think I do it. And it's honestly because I could live with Kepp (and some Freel) over at the hot corner, regression or not.

Exactly my point. Guess I didn't explain that thoroughly. As someone else mentioned, there is alot of 3B prospects in the system a year or 2 off. Possibly more than the Reds could ever have room for. (But it's way too early to tell, granted). Frazier, Valaika?, Francisco, Waring, Bartles. Hell, I probably missed somebody.....