PDA

View Full Version : Shooting Lower - #3's to Target



hippie07
12-18-2007, 06:16 PM
I know we've gotten our sights set high a Bedard, Haren, Kazmir type pitcher. But, as others have pointed out several times, I think we have a chance at winning the division if we just get a #3 type for this year.

What would it take to get Blanton? I'd say maybe a package of Hamilton/EdE and several high-ceiling lower-level specs... what say you?

I'd offer the same type package for James Shields or Ian Snell.

Or, we could shoot a little lower still and trade for 1 year of Matt Morris - or maybe give up a little more but get someone like Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, or Cliff Lee ...

I guess, I'm just asking... if the Reds decide to maybe not "shoot for the moon" in 08 but still want to make a very reasonable push for the playoffs ... I think I could live w/ that decision, especially considering what it might take to land a Bedard-type.

The Question Is.....What #3ish type pitchers would you target, and what do you think it would take to land them?

AdamDunn
12-18-2007, 06:48 PM
I know we've gotten our sights set high a Bedard, Haren, Kazmir type pitcher. But, as others have pointed out several times, I think we have a chance at winning the division if we just get a #3 type for this year.

What would it take to get Blanton? I'd say maybe a package of Hamilton/EdE and several high-ceiling lower-level specs... what say you?

I'd offer the same type package for James Shields or Ian Snell.

Or, we could shoot a little lower still and trade for 1 year of Matt Morris - or maybe give up a little more but get someone like Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, or Cliff Lee ...

I guess, I'm just asking... if the Reds decide to maybe not "shoot for the moon" in 08 but still want to make a very reasonable push for the playoffs ... I think I could live w/ that decision, especially considering what it might take to land a Bedard-type.

The Question Is.....What #3ish type pitchers would you target, and what do you think it would take to land them?

Bartolo Colon for $5 million with $2.5 in incentives for one year... Alex.

What say I? I say it will take more than Hamilton/EdE and several high-ceiling lower-level prospects for Blanton?

Blue
12-18-2007, 07:16 PM
Why? That's arguably more than the A's got for Haren!

Otherwise, I think anyone outside of Blanton or Bedard is going to be a question mark, unless San Francisco decides to move Lincecum or Cain, talk of which disappeared really quickly. Prior, Benson, Colon, Jennings and Livan are all huge question marks. The good thing is, its only money, not talent, not talent that you have to give up to get them.

*BaseClogger*
12-18-2007, 07:37 PM
If Ian Snell and/or James Shields are available I would much rather have them than Joe Blanton. I would offer Josh Hamilton/EdE/Low-level prospects for either one...

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 07:49 PM
I would go after Livan Hernandez. He had 19 quality starts last year, and will give you 200 IP. I think a starter who will give you 6 innings and keep you in games is the definition of a #3 starter. We could probably get him for 7 million a year.

bigredbunter
12-18-2007, 08:52 PM
Eric Milton?

TheBigLebowski
12-18-2007, 08:56 PM
EdE + Hamilton PLUS prospects for Joe Blanton? I'd burn all my Reds gear in an instant.

EdE + some B-level prospects is all I'd pay for Blanton.

James Shields would be an awesome grab but I can't see any reason why TB would trade him. Of course, I still can't figure out why they'd want to deal Kazmir but the rumors about him continue to circulate.

I've said it more than once - give me Blanton at a REASONABLE price or a similar pitcher or sign a Hendrickson/Livan type and let's see what happens.

Handofdeath
12-18-2007, 09:23 PM
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Josh Fogg
Freddy Garcia
Jason Jennings
Byung-Hyun Kim
Brian Lawrence
Jeff Weaver
Jaret Wright

These pitchers have all had varying amounts of success in the past. If healthy, which in some cases here is extremely iffy, these pitchers could make very solid middle to back of the rotation starters. The best part? The Reds can sign any of these pitchers and not one player has to be traded to get them. Here would be my Reds staff for 2008

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Matt Belisle
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Homer Bailey

That in my mind is a damn fine rotation to go into 2008 with. Better still, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, etc are still with the Reds. With the improvement of the relief staff, this is, at least, a .500 team which means they would be contending for the NL Central title. Those players you don't trade for the pitcher become even more valuable at the trade deadline when the team is in contention and is just a player or two away from being a serious World Series contender. Making a trade is absolutely not necessary and might even be counter productive in the long run.

TC81190
12-18-2007, 10:11 PM
I'd sign Bartolo Colon for around a mil + incentives, if I could, and trade Cueto and Votto and Maloney or someone to Tampa for Shields.

AmarilloRed
12-18-2007, 10:16 PM
I think we should take a look at Jason Jennings. He was fairly successful in a hitter's park like Coors. He also has a sinker to get ground-ball outs.

mlbfan30
12-18-2007, 10:18 PM
This is a question that really comes down to....
greater potential but an injury risk
less potential but more likely to be healthy.....
I can see arguments on both sides, but one thing that needs to be done is a 1 year contract. Even though I do like certain high injury risk players, Livan Hernandez is someone who I think would be a great signing only if it's 1 year. Even if it's a 1 year 9-10 million type deal, he would easily be worth it. People really underestimate what a league average innings eater brings really means to a team.

Handofdeath
12-18-2007, 10:20 PM
I'd sign Bartolo Colon for around a mil + incentives, if I could, and trade Cueto and Votto and Maloney or someone to Tampa for Shields.

Any team would love to have Shields. Great K numbers and 36 walks in 215 IP. That's ungodly.

gedred69
12-18-2007, 10:34 PM
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Josh Fogg
Freddy Garcia
Jason Jennings
Byung-Hyun Kim
Brian Lawrence
Jeff Weaver
Jaret Wright

These pitchers have all had varying amounts of success in the past. If healthy, which in some cases here is extremely iffy, these pitchers could make very solid middle to back of the rotation starters. The best part? The Reds can sign any of these pitchers and not one player has to be traded to get them. Here would be my Reds staff for 2008

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Matt Belisle
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Homer Bailey

That in my mind is a damn fine rotation to go into 2008 with. Better still, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, etc are still with the Reds. With the improvement of the relief staff, this is, at least, a .500 team which means they would be contending for the NL Central title. Those players you don't trade for the pitcher become even more valuable at the trade deadline when the team is in contention and is just a player or two away from being a serious World Series contender. Making a trade is absolutely not necessary and might even be counter productive in the long run.

I really like this train of thought. I couldn't state it any better. If Hamilton is for real and can stay healthy, that would be extremely valuable to have him AND Bruce for when Griffey goes down. (I do hope Grif' lasts long enough to surpass cheatin' Sammy on the All-Time HR list though).

Handofdeath
12-18-2007, 10:39 PM
I think we should take a look at Jason Jennings. He was fairly successful in a hitter's park like Coors. He also has a sinker to get ground-ball outs.

Jennings might be worth a shot and he's done well in 3 starts at GABP but a few things bother me. One, the amount of walks he gives up. Two, batters are OPSing .801 against him for his career.

mlbfan30
12-18-2007, 11:47 PM
I saw Jennings pitch in Houston and he seemed to throw either fastballs around 87MPH, or sliders around 83MPH. His PitchFX confirms this observation. He threw only 7 pitches 90+ MPH all of last year (when the pitchfx system was in the stadium). His stuff is horrible, and would probably an Eric Milton type at best.
Livan throws slower than Jennings, However he has a huge range in pitches.
Jennings throws from 80-90 MPH with a fastball/slider/ very few cutters
Livan throws from 65-85 MPH with fastball/slider/change/curve

In fact, Livan and Arroyo's repertoire are very very similar, and you all know how good Arroyo has been

AmarilloRed
12-19-2007, 12:38 AM
I saw Jennings pitch in Houston and he seemed to throw either fastballs around 87MPH, or sliders around 83MPH. His PitchFX confirms this observation. He threw only 7 pitches 90+ MPH all of last year (when the pitchfx system was in the stadium). His stuff is horrible, and would probably an Eric Milton type at best.
Livan throws slower than Jennings, However he has a huge range in pitches.
Jennings throws from 80-90 MPH with a fastball/slider/ very few cutters
Livan throws from 65-85 MPH with fastball/slider/change/curve

In fact, Livan and Arroyo's repertoire are very very similar, and you all know how good Arroyo has been

Scouting Report

Assuming Jennings is healthy, his primary pitch which is the sinker can reach in the low 90s. His sinker is his best pitch, and thus is most effective when getting ground ball outs. His sinker seems to go into right handers and moves away from left handers. Occasionally, to add in some mix, he'll also use a changeup and slider. He also uses a low 90s mph fastball. He is a decent #2 or #3 starter.Jason Jennings.

I copied this from Wikapodeia. Either they have old information and he has lost some speed off his fastball, and dropped his sinker altogether, or he had to adjust his repertoire of pitches to pitch in Minute Maid. It would be interesting to find out which it is.

mlbfan30
12-19-2007, 12:59 AM
That scouting report is just plain wrong, now anyway....
He only throw 5.... yes 5 sliders all of last year that were over 83 MPH and 1 of them was a HR.
He also throw 7 pitches over 90 MPH as states before.
There is just no way a 2, maybe 3 pitch pitcher with below average stuff that ranges in at most 10 MPH can be successful. His 2006 was an outlier, and he just isn't worth the risk

I said we should pick from 2 groups...
1) Higher potential but injury risk
2) Lower potential but innings eater

Jennings fits in, Low potential and injury risk, so he's not a good choice

crazybob60
12-19-2007, 01:20 AM
Me personally, I think the one to target would be Bartolo Colon.

Mind you, I haven't read a bit of this thread other than an overview of it, and I am not sure how much he is listed in here or exactly HOW healthy he would be. If we could get the Colon of his Montreal or early Cleveland days, then I would love it, the injury-riddled one of his later Cleveland days and the majority of his Anaheim days with the exception of the one to two seasons I would pass. Also, I am not for sure on this, although I should be because I had Colon almost every single season in fantasy,, is Bartolo a fly ball pitcher? That right there could be a BIG deciding factor in it.

Bip Roberts
12-19-2007, 01:22 AM
Kris Benson might be on the rise

mlbfan30
12-19-2007, 02:54 AM
Colon most likely will get 2 year offers, and I just don't trust him at 2 years. He is risky for injury, but also he hasn't been very good in the past 2 years.
In fact his ERA+ has been below 90 in 3 of the last 4 seasons....
He's just not worth it

Benson however might be worth the risk if it's a 1 year deal. He is the definition of back end, average starting pitcher. The big problem is that he didn't pitch last year, so obviously that would bring question marks. I wouldn't get upset over a 1/6 deal

Stephenk29
12-19-2007, 03:05 AM
James Shields is the best option I've heard. Power pitcher, control etc etc etc. Expensive to get yes, but also very young as well.

757690
12-19-2007, 03:26 AM
That scouting report is just plain wrong, now anyway....
He only throw 5.... yes 5 sliders all of last year that were over 83 MPH and 1 of them was a HR.
He also throw 7 pitches over 90 MPH as states before.
There is just no way a 2, maybe 3 pitch pitcher with below average stuff that ranges in at most 10 MPH can be successful. His 2006 was an outlier, and he just isn't worth the risk

I said we should pick from 2 groups...
1) Higher potential but injury risk
2) Lower potential but innings eater

Jennings fits in, Low potential and injury risk, so he's not a good choice


Jennings was injured last year with an elbow injury. He only pitched for two months. He also made things worse by trying to come back too soon.

That explains his lose of velocity. What he did last year is meaningless. Elbow injuries make it near impossible to throw off speed pitches, especially sliders. It would also take the sink out of his sinker.

All that matters for 2008 is, is he healthy? If he is healthy, he should be able to get back to his old self of throwing around 90 with a filthy sinker.
If he is not, he will just as bad, if not worse than last year.

i have no idea how bad his elbow injury was, or how he has been recovering from it.

BigREDSfaninKY
12-19-2007, 04:12 AM
I can't figure out why you would want Colon. He's been hurt the last 2 years. His ERA has gone progressively worse since '05 to the point it was over 6 last year. He's overweight. He'll be 35 next May. I'll pass on Colon.:thumbdown

757690
12-19-2007, 04:37 AM
I think MLBFAN30 summed it up perfectly. None of these guys are perfect, or even attractive. But the idea is that they are inexpensive in terms of money and prospects.

So he's dead on when he says,

"I said we should pick from 2 groups...
1) Higher potential but injury risk
2) Lower potential but innings eater"

The key is to pick a few and hope one or two turns out okay.

One thing to think about is that the 3-5 starters in the rotation for the Reds last year had a 6.15 ERA. So even if all the spots have a 5 ERA next year, the Reds gain around 90 runs.

Bigredfan#1
12-19-2007, 09:15 AM
EdE + Hamilton PLUS prospects for Joe Blanton? I'd burn all my Reds gear in an instant.

EdE + some B-level prospects is all I'd pay for Blanton.

James Shields would be an awesome grab but I can't see any reason why TB would trade him. Of course, I still can't figure out why they'd want to deal Kazmir but the rumors about him continue to circulate.

I've said it more than once - give me Blanton at a REASONABLE price or a similar pitcher or sign a Hendrickson/Livan type and let's see what happens.

I am with you and I am not sure he is worth that much!

kaldaniels
12-19-2007, 10:06 AM
I think MLBFAN30 summed it up perfectly. None of these guys are perfect, or even attractive. But the idea is that they are inexpensive in terms of money and prospects.

So he's dead on when he says,

"I said we should pick from 2 groups...
1) Higher potential but injury risk
2) Lower potential but innings eater"

The key is to pick a few and hope one or two turns out okay.

One thing to think about is that the 3-5 starters in the rotation for the Reds last year had a 6.15 ERA. So even if all the spots have a 5 ERA next year, the Reds gain around 90 runs.

Let's face it. (I agree with you) If the Reds have not traded for Arroyo a few years back and the forum was discussing trading for him today...he would be viewed as not being good enough. Sure he's not perfect...but it was the right move for the team to make at the time...I don't expect (but would love) a top shelf pitcher like Bedard...but any improvement to the rotatation at this point would be great. Jennings has flaws, but he would make the rotation better today.

BLEEDS
12-19-2007, 12:43 PM
I'd only give up Hamilton for Blanton.

IMO, EdE and Votto are TOO VALUABLE at positions LACKING DEPTH anywhere else in our Org to give up for anything less than a #2/#1 (in a package deal with a Bailey/Cueto).

Reading up on the ORG's debate on Bailey/Cueto - having previously no insight into Cueto - I am now of the opinion that we should trade Cueto (lower ceiling, but higher floor) and Hamilton in any packages. Bailey has the nastier stuff, and better K/9 and WHIP than Cueto, and a MUCH higher ceiling, even if he struggled last year. Everyone is GA-GA over Cueto's dominance in AA and only 30 innings or so of AAA. Bailey's numbers at AAA are much better and proven over a Larger Sample Size.

Back to EE/Votto:
Tell me the last time we've had POWER at BOTH Corner Infield spots - and then ask how much their 1970's salaries are in 2008 dollars. EdE and Votto are CHEAP for many years as it stands, and will provide us what we haven't had in DECADES.

We have (again) a PLETHORA of OF-ers. Hamilton is the most tradeable, and packaged with Cueto, and some other fluff, should be able to bring us 2 years of Bedard. If we can't get a Bedard, NO REASON to talk about giving up one of our Big 4 for a SP.

IMO, Bailey or Cueto are better than any #4 we might get, and Votto/EdE are more valuable. I would trade Hamilton and some other AAA guys for a #3/#4, but that's about it...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

mlbfan30
12-19-2007, 12:55 PM
Bailey/Cueto will probably be better than anyone we get, but added depth it is s good idea to get another starter.
We should get an innings eater type and put him as the long man in the bullpen. It's not a very important spot, but if Belisle got injured in the 2nd inning, the Reds wouldn't have to waste the rest of the bullpen. Also, it allows his to be used as a starter when one of the pitchers get an injury. NO TEAM goes the entire season without at least 1 starter from opening day get injured.
I would propose a rotation of this to start the year...
Harang/Aroyyo/Bailey/Belisle/Cueto
Once an injury happens, we would have Livan Hernandez to start, and he'll give you 6-7 innings almost every time.

BEETTLEBUG
12-19-2007, 02:42 PM
Just read on Rotoworld Baseball of Teams looking at Prior and REDS were not one of them. I thought they were!

*BaseClogger*
12-19-2007, 02:53 PM
Hendrickson would make a good long reliever/lefty specialist/spot starter... He can not be the only pitcher we add, however...

Jim
12-19-2007, 03:24 PM
Just read on Rotoworld Baseball of Teams looking at Prior and REDS were not one of them. I thought they were!

Prior is getting to much attention at this point. I'm afraid they will inflate his asking price. He belongs with the Yankees next to Pavano.

Bip Roberts
12-19-2007, 03:37 PM
Id rather not touch Prior at all

Redsnake
12-19-2007, 03:42 PM
Here are few others I would like to see the Reds ask about.
Nate Robertson DET - He's been mention on the trade block for the last 3 years.
Ervin Santana LAA - Let's revisit it again.
Nick Lowry SF - They need a ton more offense.
Brett Myers PHI - He might need a change.
Daniel Cabrera BAL - Electric stuff, mentally lacking
Javier Vazquez CHW - They need offense. This would never happen but I love him since Montreal days.

*BaseClogger*
12-19-2007, 04:51 PM
Here are few others I would like to see the Reds ask about.
Nate Robertson DET - He's been mention on the trade block for the last 3 years.
Ervin Santana LAA - Let's revisit it again.
Nick Lowry SF - They need a ton more offense.
Brett Myers PHI - He might need a change.
Daniel Cabrera BAL - Electric stuff, mentally lacking
Javier Vazquez CHW - They need offense. This would never happen but I love him since Montreal days.

Nate Robertson is asking for an extension and they don't have enough depth to trade him
The Phillips are looking to add pitching not move it, and Myers is expected to be in their rotation next year
Please don't bring up Noah Lowry again...

hippie07
12-19-2007, 05:07 PM
If we could get Noah Lowry or Ervin Santana for a song, I'd take a look - but chances are that we couldn't, so I'd pass, but if they're cheap enough, why not?

Ervin ... maybe even slightly more than a song, but not much more ...

Redsnake
12-19-2007, 05:49 PM
Lowry or Belisle? Who would you choose?

757690
12-19-2007, 05:52 PM
Lowry or Belisle? Who would you choose?

Do I have to? That's worse than Bush or Kerry.

mound_patrol
12-19-2007, 06:01 PM
Lowry or Belisle? Who would you choose?

Belisle by far. Noah is only valueable to the Giants because his pitch style can make him effective in their ballpark. Belisle has great stuff, and if he ever puts it together he'll be a solid number 3 type pitcher. I think we'll see a nice improvement with him this season.

*BaseClogger*
12-19-2007, 06:30 PM
Lowry or Belisle? Who would you choose?

Belisle without a doubt. All you have to do is look at their FIP