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TRF
12-21-2007, 03:25 PM
We've discussed the breakout players, the next stud, and ranking the big 4.

So who is the sleeper? Who is off the radar so much that he'll seemingly come out nowhere.

I'm going with two guys, both pitchers, both drafted the same year. Both are coming off injuries, and both are 25.

Richie Gardner and Thomas Pauly. Gardner had better success and at a higher level. He pitched really well at AA, not so well at AAA. He likely hit a wall in his recovery at AAA. He'll start for Louisville in 2008.

Pauly had a tougher time, but I gather he was more severrley injured than Gardner. His control hasn't come back, but it looks like his velo is close to where it was. 2008 will be a very telling year for both pitchers. I give the edge to Gardner. If he's fully recovered, last year went a long way towards building his stamina.

HokieRed
12-21-2007, 03:27 PM
That's easy. He shouldn't be a sleeper but somehow he is--Evan Hildenbrandt.

mlbfan30
12-21-2007, 03:37 PM
I'll say Scott Carroll with his 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame

podgejeff_
12-21-2007, 03:52 PM
Wait, do we still have Pauly?

RedsManRick
12-21-2007, 04:01 PM
How about Tzu-Kai Chiu?

6 foot lefty from Taiwan. Put up a 47/8 K/BB ratio in 52 IP for the GCL Reds. No idea what the scouting report looks like other than reports of a mediocre fastball in the high 80's with a very good curve.

TRF
12-21-2007, 09:55 PM
Wait, do we still have Pauly?

I think so, but maybe not. It would have to have been a rule V loss or a non-tender. But I think he's still in the org.

*BaseClogger*
12-21-2007, 09:56 PM
Is Carlos Fisher eligible at "sleeper"?

OnBaseMachine
12-21-2007, 09:59 PM
Is Carlos Fisher eligible at "sleeper"?

If so, he's my choice.

dougdirt
12-22-2007, 01:47 AM
Justin Reed is the first guy that jumped into my head.

Blue
12-22-2007, 02:58 AM
How about Tzu-Kai Chiu?

6 foot lefty from Taiwan. Put up a 47/8 K/BB ratio in 52 IP for the GCL Reds. No idea what the scouting report looks like other than reports of a mediocre fastball in the high 80's with a very good curve.

I don't know whether to pick this guy or Justin Reed. Chiu throws six different pitches and was really putting it together over his last 10 games in the GCL.

Reed I like as a Denorfia-type player, except lefthanded.

Another guy that might surprise is Brett Bartles. If memory serves, he is a god-awful defender at 3B. However, he hit well for the GCL Reds and at Billings last season. He also seems to have decent speed, so he might be able to play a corner outfield spot.

I'll go with the CF Reed.

Bip Roberts
12-22-2007, 03:06 AM
Dickerson after he starts taking some HGH and develops crazy Kenny lofton power!

Orenda
12-22-2007, 08:36 AM
Anybody holding out hope that Josh Ravin can figure out where the ball is going once he lets go of it? He's still a guy I'm interested in and his name is hardly mentioned anymore, If he can harness his stuff he could sneak way up the prospect rankings.

dougdirt
12-22-2007, 12:51 PM
Anybody holding out hope that Josh Ravin can figure out where the ball is going once he lets go of it? He's still a guy I'm interested in and his name is hardly mentioned anymore, If he can harness his stuff he could sneak way up the prospect rankings.

I am. If he can harness his stuff, look out.

Betterread
12-22-2007, 01:52 PM
Chris Valaika - if he stays healthy, will be a major league player.
Right behind him is Justin Turner.

mth123
12-23-2007, 07:37 AM
From *Baseclogger*

Is Carlos Fisher eligible at "sleeper"?

From OBM

If so, he's my choice.




I picked Fisher before picking Fisher was cool (last year). I'll stay with him.

If he doesn't qualify, I'll pick another guy that isn't on anyone's radar yet. Ben Jukich will emerge as a legit back of the rotation lefty prospect by the end of 2008.

RedlegJake
12-23-2007, 06:17 PM
I'll go with Josh Ravin, too. This guy's stuff is so good if he gets command of it his ceiling is as high as anybody's. But...his command is... well, he even needs to improve to simply be awful.

11larkin11
12-23-2007, 11:52 PM
Scott Carrol or Danny Ray Herrera

Mario-Rijo
12-24-2007, 07:09 PM
Scott Carrol or Danny Ray Herrera

How did I know you were gonna say Carrol. ;)

Ga_Red
12-24-2007, 07:22 PM
The Rip Van *Wrinkle* to be?
Unsung, unknown Sergio V.

Now wouldn't that be huge? :)

Mario-Rijo
12-24-2007, 07:51 PM
This is a bit of a longshot IMO, but I am going to say Robert Manuel. Yes the guy from the Dave Williams deal, a forgotten man.

His stats are a bit deceiving as he was used as both a starter and reliever at Sarasota. As a starter he struggled but in relief he seemed to flourish and at his age (24) he needs to be on the move and quick.

His overall #'s for '07:

6-5, 98.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 33 games, 11 starts, 100 hits, 44 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB's, 93 K's, .343 BABIP, 2.59 FIP, 3.47 BsRA9

As a reliever:

5-1, 49 IP, 1.65 era, 22 games, 1 save, 34 Hits, 9 ER, O HR's, 7 BB's, 52 K's.

I know he's old for his level and it is Sarasota, but man that's nearly an 8/1 K/BB ratio.

NC Reds
12-24-2007, 08:03 PM
Paul Janish. He already plays MLB-caliber defense. I think he will handle AAA (over .275) this year and be ready for a utility role.

Jamie Arneson is a lower level sleeper.

camisadelgolf
12-24-2007, 09:27 PM
This is a bit of a longshot IMO, but I am going to say Robert Manuel. Yes the guy from the Dave Williams deal, a forgotten man.

His stats are a bit deceiving as he was used as both a starter and reliever at Sarasota. As a starter he struggled but in relief he seemed to flourish and at his age (24) he needs to be on the move and quick.

His overall #'s for '07:

6-5, 98.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 33 games, 11 starts, 100 hits, 44 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB's, 93 K's, .343 BABIP, 2.59 FIP, 3.47 BsRA9

As a reliever:

5-1, 49 IP, 1.65 era, 22 games, 1 save, 34 Hits, 9 ER, O HR's, 7 BB's, 52 K's.

I know he's old for his level and it is Sarasota, but man that's nearly an 8/1 K/BB ratio.

I look for Manuel and Ben Jukich to have somewhat similar career paths. It sounds like Manuel's Ks will go down more than usual as he proceeds through he system, but he might have the best control in the organization. If he can keep the ball in the park and develop his pitches a little more, he could be a big surprise.

11larkin11
12-25-2007, 12:03 AM
How did I know you were gonna say Carrol. ;)

I had to. You only hear about Lotzkar and Hildenbrandt from last years draft as pitchers. Yet Scott had a great year in Billings.

2.93 ERA
15 K/5 BB

He had one relief appearance. Without that, he would have a 2.03 ERA. And so far he has produced, and he must have the intangibles since he was selected in the 3rd round.

mlbfan30
12-25-2007, 12:19 AM
I had to. You only hear about Lotzkar and Hildenbrandt from last years draft as pitchers. Yet Scott had a great year in Billings.

2.93 ERA
15 K/5 BB

He had one relief appearance. Without that, he would have a 2.03 ERA. And so far he has produced, and he must have the intangibles since he was selected in the 3rd round.

You stole my sleeper pick. Get your own

Cyclone792
12-25-2007, 03:49 PM
Is Carlos Fisher eligible at "sleeper"?

I'm sticking with Fisher too. He's done enough to get plenty of notice by avid followers of the Reds' system, but he's still relatively unknown by many people outside the core.

HokieRed
12-26-2007, 08:36 PM
Who hears about Hildenbrandt? I've been trying to stir up enthusiasm about him since the draft with no result. He can't get a vote except for mine over on the prospects poll. Here's another name: Daniel Guerrero, very good k to walk ratio.

princeton
12-27-2007, 12:18 PM
Adam Rosales was last year's sleeper, and still strikes me as being highly undervalued and capable of surprising a lot of people. He remains the Reds' most fascinating minor leaguer.

dougdirt
12-27-2007, 12:53 PM
Adam Rosales was last year's sleeper, and still strikes me as being highly undervalued and capable of surprising a lot of people. He remains the Reds' most fascinating minor leaguer.

He is the reason that if we had to trade Votto or Edwin to upgrade the pitching that I wouldn't be too upset despite the fact that I really like both of those players. I think he could be a 50-60 XBH in the majors and very soon.

princeton
12-27-2007, 01:19 PM
He is the reason that if we had to trade Votto or Edwin to upgrade the pitching that I wouldn't be too upset despite the fact that I really like both of those players. I think he could be a 50-60 XBH in the majors and very soon.

Rosales is a KEY player. He's the only remotely close RHed bat in the system, and the major league team needs a RHed bat desperately. But guys often have their best improvement at age 24-- has he peaked at the AA level? His best position is probably third, where you already have a young RHed bat. You do have an aging RFer, and an unproven LHHing first baseman, but can he hit enough for either position? Do you play it halfway and make him into a supersub?

these are the questions that good teams answer correctly. The Reds need to get these answers right.

bucksfan2
12-28-2007, 12:57 PM
I think Thompson makes a big jump. Last year's full season after arm surgery is past him and I think he jumps into the mix as the next reds pitcher to come through the system.

princeton
12-28-2007, 03:47 PM
Give me li'l Ramon Ramirez as pitcher. Must be good if he's better than Carlos Guevara...


as an aside, Reds paid well above slot money to the following draftees: LHP Jamie Arneson, OF Tony Brown, RHP Jonathan Conatser, none of which have shown much. Yet.

camisadelgolf
12-29-2007, 06:32 PM
Personally, I'm a big fan of Conatser's. I expect him to break out some time within the next couple years.

kentjett
12-29-2007, 10:06 PM
Valaika has a pure stroke and will bat over .300 next season, his move to second will help everybodies viewpoint of this kid.

Falls City Beer
12-29-2007, 10:43 PM
No one. The ones who are heralded might make it; the unheralded ones are for a reason.

princeton
12-30-2007, 07:55 AM
No one. The ones who are heralded might make it; the unheralded ones are for a reason.

Arroyo and Harang were unheralded players

Mario-Rijo
12-30-2007, 07:10 PM
No one. The ones who are heralded might make it; the unheralded ones are for a reason.

Actually I'd say that the unheralded ones make it more often than the highly heralded ones do. I may be wrong but I bet the #'s aren't that far apart.

Falls City Beer
12-30-2007, 07:43 PM
Arroyo and Harang were unheralded players

In other organizations' systems.

smoke6
12-30-2007, 10:57 PM
No one. The ones who are heralded might make it; the unheralded ones are for a reason.

I agree. He could be a good one.

princeton
12-31-2007, 12:34 AM
In other organizations' systems.


you're way behind. We are another organization's system

TRF
04-07-2008, 11:14 AM
Well, one of my sleeper retired (Pauly) the other is now in the Brewer's system.

I suck at sleepers.