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Stingray
12-21-2007, 05:58 PM
Where do Edinson Volquez & Daniel Herrera fit in our prospect list?

dougdirt
12-21-2007, 07:06 PM
No where.

Volquez is not eligible and Herrera has about no chance of ever stepping on a major league field short of someones MLB and AAA bullpen catching SARS.

Grande Donkey
12-21-2007, 07:35 PM
If Volquez was a prospect, how would you rank Him, Bailey and Cueto?

Blue
12-21-2007, 07:39 PM
No where.

Volquez is not eligible and Herrera has about no chance of ever stepping on a major league field short of someones MLB and AAA bullpen catching SARS.

You don't remember Chris Michalak?

Orenda
12-21-2007, 07:57 PM
Does this make Danny Dorn any more valuable to the organization? The outfield could thin out quickly in a year depending on who is acquired.

*BaseClogger*
12-21-2007, 08:22 PM
Doug,

I've come to really trust your insight, and you do a great job with your site. It has become a daily read of mine.
Now that I have gotten the "butt" kissing out of the way :), I have to respectfully disagree with your evaluation of Herrera. I have been taught to believe that their is no correct way that a pitcher must get outs. Guys like Chad Bradford, Chris Hammond, and Jon Coutlangus among others have demonstrated this (Moneyball rationale). Clearly, he can strike out guys in AA, and I see no reason why he can't continue to strike out a good rate in the majors. Plus, he's only 23. Sure, he may not be great, but why can't he be at least an effective LOOGY? It seems that even if he only stirkes out around 7 per 9 IP in MLB, he gets enough ground balls to pitch to contact. Also, if he is only coming in to face a couple of batters per appearance, why can't his different style be effective, at least for a couple of years?
You know more than me, so please tell me why I'm wrong :)

gedred69
12-21-2007, 09:26 PM
Does this make Danny Dorn any more valuable to the organization? The outfield could thin out quickly in a year depending on who is acquired.

I think the Reds don't say much about Dorn, because as John Sickels evaluated him, "Major Sleeper". He has snuck under a lot of radars due to his serious shoulder injury that he has seemingly totally recovered from. Seems people don't remember that after a stellar season at Billings, he skipped low A, going directly to high A, ending up at AA where he tore it up. That to me is a 3 level jump in 1 year. He will soon be major trade bait, or playing in the Reds outfield.

11larkin11
12-21-2007, 10:44 PM
I think the Reds don't say much about Dorn, because as John Sickels evaluated him, "Major Sleeper". He has snuck under a lot of radars due to his serious shoulder injury that he has seemingly totally recovered from. Seems people don't remember that after a stellar season at Billings, he skipped low A, going directly to high A, ending up at AA where he tore it up. That to me is a 3 level jump in 1 year. He will soon be major trade bait, or playing in the Reds outfield.

If he can start hitting lefties.

dougdirt
12-22-2007, 12:51 AM
Doug,

I've come to really trust your insight, and you do a great job with your site. It has become a daily read of mine.
Now that I have gotten the "butt" kissing out of the way :), I have to respectfully disagree with your evaluation of Herrera. I have been taught to believe that their is no correct way that a pitcher must get outs. Guys like Chad Bradford, Chris Hammond, and Jon Coutlangus among others have demonstrated this (Moneyball rationale). Clearly, he can strike out guys in AA, and I see no reason why he can't continue to strike out a good rate in the majors. Plus, he's only 23. Sure, he may not be great, but why can't he be at least an effective LOOGY? It seems that even if he only stirkes out around 7 per 9 IP in MLB, he gets enough ground balls to pitch to contact. Also, if he is only coming in to face a couple of batters per appearance, why can't his different style be effective, at least for a couple of years?
You know more than me, so please tell me why I'm wrong :)

I just don't think many teams are going to give a guy like him a chance because they just don't see him able to get major league hitters out with a junk fastball and a trick pitch. If teams don't give him that chance, which I doubt they will, then his prospect status isn't very good.

*BaseClogger*
12-22-2007, 12:56 AM
I just don't think many teams are going to give a guy like him a chance because they just don't see him able to get major league hitters out with a junk fastball and a trick pitch. If teams don't give him that chance, which I doubt they will, then his prospect status isn't very good.

If he repeats his 2007 preformance in AAA, he better get a chance!

Orenda
12-22-2007, 08:32 AM
I just don't think many teams are going to give a guy like him a chance because they just don't see him able to get major league hitters out with a junk fastball and a trick pitch. If teams don't give him that chance, which I doubt they will, then his prospect status isn't very good.

I don't know anything about this guy, but judging by his reported velocity and your take on him, I have one critical question. If he is a junkball pitcher with a "trick pitch", Why in the world do you waste your time on him? If Carlos Guevara was not the type of pitcher this organization wanted around why waste a roster spot and development time on some Chris Hammond lite? I'd rather take a shot on a failed toolsy guy, or another converted outfielder/pitcher type.

dougdirt
12-22-2007, 11:58 AM
I don't know anything about this guy, but judging by his reported velocity and your take on him, I have one critical question. If he is a junkball pitcher with a "trick pitch", Why in the world do you waste your time on him? If Carlos Guevara was not the type of pitcher this organization wanted around why waste a roster spot and development time on some Chris Hammond lite? I'd rather take a shot on a failed toolsy guy, or another converted outfielder/pitcher type.

Even AA and AAA need players. Not every guy can be a true prospect. The Lookouts still need a guy that can close a game out for them. Wins and success are still very important to those players and that team. Same for the Bats, and SaraReds and Dragons.

TOBTTReds
12-22-2007, 12:07 PM
Herrera has about no chance of ever stepping on a major league field short of someones MLB and AAA bullpen catching SARS.

I'm gonna have to disagree with this as well. If he was 28, I'd agree. But teams do see something in him, and honestly, he is the perfect example of a Sept call up on a bad team. Hopefully that isn't the Reds (bad team), but at some point, someone is going to test his stuff, and maybe just out of curiosity. If he continues to be successful in the Minors, I would have no problem giving him a shot if there was a need. Way to many mediocre relievers see time in the Majors just because there is a need. I'm not saying he will be successful, but he will get a shot.

*BaseClogger*
12-22-2007, 03:09 PM
I'm gonna have to disagree with this as well. If he was 28, I'd agree. But teams do see something in him, and honestly, he is the perfect example of a Sept call up on a bad team. Hopefully that isn't the Reds (bad team), but at some point, someone is going to test his stuff, and maybe just out of curiosity. If he continues to be successful in the Minors, I would have no problem giving him a shot if there was a need. Way to many mediocre relievers see time in the Majors just because there is a need. I'm not saying he will be successful, but he will get a shot.

I agree-so long as he progresses his dominance to AAA...

mth123
12-22-2007, 06:11 PM
One thought here on Herrera. The Red's pen has potential to have a lot of hard throwers down the road. Cordero, Burton, Pelland, Roenicke, maybe one of the starter trio of Cueto, Bailey or Volquez may see time in the pen and even Coffey all live off the hard stuff. A soft tossing lefty with a trick pitch might be just the kind of different look that can keep hitters off balance and make all the others even more effective.

Good bullpens are built with good pitchers first and foremost, but how the pieces fit together and compliment each other is a factor in their effectiveness. Herrera could be just the guy to mess with the opposition's timing ahead of the hard throwers. I have to think its a factor in why WK would have wanted him ahead of any number of low level prospects that could have been the throw-in in this deal.

WMR
12-22-2007, 07:36 PM
One thought here on Herrera. The Red's pen has potential to have a lot of hard throwers down the road. Cordero, Burton, Pelland, Roenicke, maybe one of the starter trio of Cueto, Bailey or Volquez may see time in the pen and even Coffey all live off the hard stuff. A soft tossing lefty with a trick pitch might be just the kind of different look that can keep hitters off balance and make all the others even more effective.

Good bullpens are built with good pitchers first and foremost, but how the pieces fit together and compliment each other is a factor in their effectiveness. Herrera could be just the guy to mess with the opposition's timing ahead of the hard throwers. I have to think its a factor in why WK would have wanted him ahead of any number of low level prospects that could have been the throw-in in this deal.

Very savvy commentary, mth.

princeton
12-24-2007, 11:52 AM
I've always thought that lefty screwballers were very interesting: there's Carl Hubbell, Tug McGraw, and Fernando Valenzuela. Jamie Moyer and John Franco have exceptional screwie changups. Spahn added a screwball late in his career, with great sucess.

Most threw a lot harder than Daniel Herrera. Color me intrigued, though. He's my new favorite minor leaguer.

RedsManRick
12-24-2007, 01:01 PM
Even AA and AAA need players. Not every guy can be a true prospect. The Lookouts still need a guy that can close a game out for them. Wins and success are still very important to those players and that team. Same for the Bats, and SaraReds and Dragons.

I just don't understand the logic of not giving a dominant player the chance to test his stuff at a higher level. There is potential benefit in doing so and essentially zero cost involved. The only true cost is potential ego bruise taken by those who have predicted the player's failure. Unfortunately, at times that can idea can be blinding. It can make people ignore prospects like Kevin Youkilis or Jack Cust.

I don't think it's likely that Herrera or Guevara will ever be regular members of an MLB bullpen. However, I would certainly give them the opportunity to prove me wrong so long as they continue to seize the opportunities they are given. It certainly makes more sense giving these guys a first chance before giving a 5th to some 29 year old who has yet to capitalize on his previous 4... cough... Ricky Stone... cough.

princeton
12-24-2007, 01:29 PM
I just don't understand the logic of not giving a dominant player the chance to test his stuff at a higher level.

Reds very rarely fail to give a pitcher a chance. If anything, there are too many opportunities in our organization for the ugly pitchers.

Mike Marshall was a little RHer with a screwball. I can't think of another. Christy Mathewson threw hard and didn't throw the pitch very often.

Mike Cuellar is another little lefty screwballer. Freddie Norman was a personal favorite of many on the board, I'll bet. Bill Lee and Willie Hernandez were big lefties.

Mario-Rijo
12-24-2007, 06:56 PM
Reds very rarely fail to give a pitcher a chance. If anything, there are too many opportunities in our organization for the ugly pitchers.

Mike Marshall was a little RHer with a screwball. I can't think of another. Christy Mathewson threw hard and didn't throw the pitch very often.

Mike Cuellar is another little lefty screwballer. Freddie Norman was a personal favorite of many on the board, I'll bet. Bill Lee and Willie Hernandez were big lefties.

Wow, a spaceman reference. It's been awhile since I heard his name. :)