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TC81190
12-23-2007, 07:33 PM
Has anybody considered Jason Marquis as a solution for the 4/5 slots in the rotation?

It's said that he's going to have to compete for a starting job in the Cubs' rotation, despite being an at least league average starter last year.

Jason Marquis:
1.91.2 IP, 190 H, 22 HR, 76 BB, 109 K. 4.60 ERA

His ERA was just very slightly above average, and his H/IP may have also been above average (don't have the numbers on me...)

So while he may not blow anyone away, he may prove to be a more than capable filler for the back-end until Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto are fully ready to take those spots. And the fact that he has to compete for a job may mean that the Cubs are not that high on him anymore.

So what do you think? Would you send over some B-prospects to Chicago for Marquis? Or do you not see him as a viable option?

Dracodave
12-23-2007, 07:42 PM
I see a good arm with a ten cent head...He just lacks what I want out of a pitcher back of the rotation or not.

TC81190
12-23-2007, 07:46 PM
I see a good arm with a ten cent head...He just lacks what I want out of a pitcher back of the rotation or not.

True, but he also showed a marked improvement in his numbers last year from 05. I don't follow Cubs baseball, so I wouldn't know right off hand, but perhaps he's put some things together, now?

He's also entering the prime age for pitchers, as well.

Jay Bruce
12-23-2007, 07:47 PM
Last year was a bit of a comeback year for Marquis compared to 2006, and his xFIP was still 4.98, a pretty mediocre number for a back of the rotation starter. When you also take into consideration that he makes 16.25 million over the next two years, I would have to say that this is not something the Reds should consider.

TC81190
12-23-2007, 07:52 PM
Last year was a bit of a comeback year for Marquis compared to 2006, and his xFIP was still 4.98, a pretty mediocre number for a back of the rotation starter. When you also take into consideration that he makes 16.25 million over the next two years, I would have to say that this is not something the Reds should consider.

It may not be ideal...but, 8 mil. a year is not TOO unreasonable for a league average starter these days, which is what Marquis has been for most of his career, especially considering the type of deals guys like Silva have received, or what someone like Lohse will receive.

Jay Bruce
12-23-2007, 08:07 PM
It may not be ideal...but, 8 mil. a year is not TOO unreasonable for a league average starter these days, which is what Marquis has been for most of his career, especially considering the type of deals guys like Silva have received, or what someone like Lohse will receive.

The thing is though, that he is not a league average starter. Since 2004, when he first became a full time starter, his xFIP each season has been 4.12, 4.69, 5.78 and 4.98. He was only an above average starter for one year, and has been below average for three straight years. This would not be a chance I would like the Reds to take.

mlbfan30
12-23-2007, 08:10 PM
Belisle is just as good, if not better than Marquis. We also have him for 3-4 years while paying a lot less than 16 mil.
So in 2009, when we have Harang/Arroyo/Belisle starting. You would rather force 2 of the young pitchers in Volquez/Cueto/Bailey out of the rotation and also pay Marquis 8 mil, rather than take a small risk.

TC81190
12-23-2007, 08:10 PM
The thing is though, that he is not a league average starter. Since 2004, when he first became a full time starter, his xFIP each season has been 4.12, 4.69, 5.78 and 4.98. He was only an above average starter for one year, and has been below average for three straight years. This would not be a chance I would like the Reds to take.

I can see where you're coming from.

However, out of the stats that you posted, only one of those figures would truly be bad for the rotation (5.78), considering the demand of the slot (4/5) he was pitching from, and who he'd be replacing (relative question marks like Bailey or Cueto, or an aged vet like Lieber.) And, he may also be set to improve, seeing as he is in his late 20's now, the peak age for many pitchers.

But I can completely understand why you personally wouldn't take the risk, though.

mlbfan30
12-23-2007, 08:13 PM
I can see where you're coming from.

However, out of the stats that you posted, only one of those figures would truly be bad for the rotation (5.78), considering the demand of the slot (4/5) he was pitching from, and who he'd be replacing (relative question marks like Bailey or Cueto, or an aged vet like Lieber.) And, he may also be set to improve, seeing as he is in his late 20's now, the peak age for many pitchers.

But I can completely understand why you personally wouldn't take the risk, though.

Do you really think that none of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez would be able to have at least a 5.00 ERA.

TC81190
12-23-2007, 08:14 PM
Belisle is just as good, if not better than Marquis. We also have him for 3-4 years while paying a lot less than 16 mil.
So in 2009, when we have Harang/Arroyo/Belisle starting. You would rather force 2 of the young pitchers in Volquez/Cueto/Bailey out of the rotation and also pay Marquis 8 mil, rather than take a small risk.

But in 2008, we do also need someone for the 4/5 slots in the rotation, and it may not be the best idea to count on the young pitchers to fill both. If we had Marquis, we could go with Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Marquis, and one of Volquez, Bailey, or Cueto. Plus if Marquis proves to be dependable, you can then pick one of the two you didn't put in the rotation to pitch out of the pen. And you'd have several trading chips, too.

TC81190
12-23-2007, 08:15 PM
Do you really think that none of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez would be able to have at least a 5.00 ERA.

I think one of them can do it, but I really wouldn't want 2 of them in the rotation posting numbers that would equate to a 5 ERA.

Dracodave
12-23-2007, 08:53 PM
I think one of them can do it, but I really wouldn't want 2 of them in the rotation posting numbers that would equate to a 5 ERA.

I think Volquez only post's a 4.30ish era. Bailey a 4.20ish and Cueto if he pitches might post a 4.10ish.

I think those are very good indicators of what they will do, I really dont think any of them are destined to bomb.

Natty Redlocks
12-23-2007, 10:53 PM
I know a lot of Cub fans who would be thrilled to see the Cubs dump Marquis on the Reds. He had one great month last season, then was mediocre to flat out bad the rest of the way. No thank you; I'd rather take my chances with the kids.

BEETTLEBUG
12-24-2007, 12:00 AM
I was for getting Marquis this time last year but most of you shot that down how would Freel & Stanton for him be? Well what could we trade for Marquis?

AmarilloRed
12-24-2007, 12:03 AM
We have a very slim chance to trade either Freel or Stanton. Their is no chance we could move both in the same trade.

BEETTLEBUG
12-24-2007, 04:36 AM
Well what would we trade for Marquis?

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 09:04 AM
Well what would we trade for Marquis?

A bag of pop rocks, two sticks of mentos and a autograph Eric Milton Reds Card.

Hondo
12-24-2007, 09:45 AM
He can Hit!

Pass.

Thanks

Hondo
12-24-2007, 09:46 AM
A bag of pop rocks, two sticks of mentos and a autograph Eric Milton Reds Card.

The Eric Milton LINE just made me laugh for like 4 straight Minutes!

Thanks

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 10:52 AM
My expectations-one of Volquez/Bailey will be great this season, the other will bomb and be sent to the bullpen or to AAA. I expect that when Cueto comes up aronud June that he will put up an ERA around 4. That is just gut instinct, and is not based off numbers at all. I'll take that over Jason Marquis...

BLEEDS
12-24-2007, 11:01 AM
My expectations-one of Volquez/Bailey will be great this season, the other will bomb and be sent to the bullpen or to AAA. I expect that when Cueto comes up aronud June that he will put up an ERA around 4. That is just gut instinct, and is not based off numbers at all. I'll take that over Jason Marquis...

That is why we need to trade/acquire a Vet FA SP.

We can't pin our hopes for CONTENDING by assuming we can overcome 1-2 BOMBS from the young kids on our Pitching Staff.

We need ONE sure, proven, VET that we KNOW can come in and post a ~4.5 ERA for 180+ innings, and plop him in the #3. You can afford to "Tinker" with your #4/#5 based on performance, and put up with somone bombin out and being demoted, but NOT three spots...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 11:02 AM
That is why we need to trade/acquire a Vet FA SP.

We can't pin our hopes for CONTENDING by assuming we can overcome 1-2 BOMBS from the young kids on our Pitching Staff.

We need ONE sure, proven, VET that we KNOW can come in and post a ~4.5 ERA for 180+ innings, and plop him in the #3. You can afford to "Tinker" with your #4/#5 based on performance, and put up with somone bombin out and being demoted, but NOT three spots...

The thing is, that is my expectation of Matt Belisle in the #3...

AmarilloRed
12-24-2007, 11:06 AM
The only problem is that there is no one like that in free agency. Livan Hernandez could give you 200 innings, but he might not have an ERA under 4.50. You might take a risk on a free agent pitcher, but there really are no guarantees in free agency.

Hondo
12-24-2007, 11:32 AM
The thing is, that is my expectation of Matt Belisle in the #3...

Ok, no offense... I like all your Posts...

But...

That guy is a Back of the Rotation Starter...

Thanks

Jared Roberts

BLEEDS
12-24-2007, 11:58 AM
The thing is, that is my expectation of Matt Belisle in the #3...

Based on what exactly?

Surely not HISTORY. It's your WISH, not a fact by any means.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

schmidty622
12-24-2007, 12:38 PM
Id rather have Kyle Lohse as my #3 then Matt Belisle, and that makes me sick.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 12:40 PM
Based on what exactly?

Surely not HISTORY. It's your WISH, not a fact by any means.

Well, how about his FIP of 4.54 in 2007? Can he improve .04 on his ERA in 2008?

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 12:41 PM
Id rather have Kyle Lohse as my #3 then Matt Belisle, and that makes me sick.


I'd take my chances with Jon Lieber or Livian Hern.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 12:44 PM
Ok, no offense... I like all your Posts...

But...

That guy is a Back of the Rotation Starter...

Thanks

Jared Roberts

I know he is a back of the rotation starter in a perfect world, but he should be our #3. Some guy said we needed to add a vet that would post a 4.50 ERA in the #3 spot, and I just wanted to add that that is basically what Matt Belisle should give us. I wish Matt Belisle wasn't our #3, but you have to play with what you've got... Just go check out the poll I started. Almost everybody agrees he is a back-end starter with the potential to be a #3...

schmidty622
12-24-2007, 12:49 PM
I'd take my chances with Jon Lieber or Livian Hern.


Exactly, a ton of free agents would be better #3's then Belisle. He's an ok option as a #5 but if he's our #3 then the rotation has regressed.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 12:54 PM
Exactly, a ton of free agents would be better #3's then Belisle. He's an ok option as a #5 but if he's our #3 then the rotation has regressed.

who and why?

schmidty622
12-24-2007, 01:10 PM
For one he wasn’t even a #3 on our team last year. Lohse was, and Lohse had a better year statistically. So if Belisle was to get a promotion to start this year how has the rotation gotten better?

Free Agents who are better:

Jon Lieber
Josh Towers
Matt Clement on a incentive deal
Prior when he gets healthy
Freddy Garcia when he gets healthy

If we signed Lieber, Clement, or Towers as the #3 and had Belisle as a #4 it would be a much better rotation to start the season. If we signed Prior or Garcia as the eventual #3 we would have a much better rotation by June or so. Belisle just hasnt shown himself to be a consistant #3 over the course of his starts. Im all for having him as a 4/5 but if hes the #3, we got problems.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 01:15 PM
For one he wasnt even a #3 on our team last year. Lohse was, and Lohse had a better year statistically. So if Belisle was to get a promotion to start this year how has the rotation gotten better?

Free Agents who are better:

Jon Lieber
Josh Towers
Matt Clement on a incentive deal
Prior when he gets healthy
Freddy Garcia when he gets healthy

IF Towers, Prior, and Garcia are healthy they MIGHT be better, but based on health I'll exclude them. You do realize that Belisle was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the bigs last year, right? Maybe Lieber wil be, but he is getting old and was worse than Belisle last year. It seems you have no expectations of Belisle improving or old/oft-injured pitchers regressing...

TC81190
12-24-2007, 01:17 PM
IF Towers, Prior, and Garcia are healthy they MIGHT be better, but based on health I'll exclude them. You do realize that Belisle was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the bigs last year, right? Maybe Lieber wil be, but he is getting old and was worse than Belisle last year. It seems you have no expectations of Belisle improving or old/oft-injured pitchers regressing...

Unlucky? I agree that Belisle can be a good pitcher, but if he has a high BABIP, it's not because he got unlucky, it's because he was getting torched towards the end of the season.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 01:20 PM
Unlucky? I agree that Belisle can be a good pitcher, but if he has a high BABIP, it's not because he got unlucky, it's because he was getting torched towards the end of the season.

What about the difference between his FIP and ERA? His low LOB%?

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 01:23 PM
I will never understand Toronto's hate of Josh Towers. He's a back of the rotation starter and that's just what the Reds need, he's got good command and even though he can't throw hard (a 89/88 mph fastball) he doesn't walk much (22 bbs last year)

schmidty622
12-24-2007, 01:23 PM
Lieber hasn’t had an ERA as high as Belisle did last year in 11 years. Granted he is old and on the downside of his career.

In the years before he was battling a shoulder injury Clement was a far better pitcher then Belisle has shown himself to be. He took a year off and is ready to start pitching again, as he was throwing off a mound last year in august.

I wasnt aware that Josh Towers was injured, i must have just missed it, how serious was his injury?

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 01:26 PM
Lieber hasnít had an ERA as high as Belisle did last year in 11 years. Granted he is old and on the downside of his career.

In the years before he was battling a shoulder injury Clement was a far better pitcher then Belisle has shown himself to be. He took a year off and is ready to start pitching again, as he was throwing off a mound last year in august.

I take back my comment about Lieber. He was good last year, but did not pitch enough innings...

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 01:27 PM
Unlucky? I agree that Belisle can be a good pitcher, but if he has a high BABIP, it's not because he got unlucky, it's because he was getting torched towards the end of the season.


What about the difference between his FIP and ERA? His low LOB%?


To answer BaseClogger, Almost a full run. His FIP was something like 4.54..his era was near 5.32

BABIP is a BAAAAAAD stat for pitchers. It is soley based on defense. His whip would be good to agrue that he does alot of bad, but his whil was only 1.44. For a first time start thats not totally bad at all.

Hondo
12-24-2007, 02:13 PM
I would sign Lieber, Prior, and Garcia all to 2 year Incentive laden deals...

Thanks

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 02:16 PM
I would sign Lieber, Prior, and Garcia all to 2 year Incentive laden deals...

Thanks

2 year deals! When do Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto get to play?

Hondo
12-24-2007, 02:24 PM
2 year deals! When do Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto get to play?

I am counting on 1 of these guys working out...

Thanks

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 02:48 PM
I am counting on 1 of these guys working out...

Thanks

but we still have to pay the other 2 for 2 years...

Hondo
12-24-2007, 03:06 PM
Middle Relief, and they would be incentive laden contracts...

Thanks

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 03:06 PM
but we still have to pay the other 2 for 2 years...


If they reboud, No we don't. I flip them the second they show life that they are healthy and can pitch as good as before. People will dig the incentive laden deals after they prove they are healthy.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 03:08 PM
If they reboud, No we don't. I flip them the second they show life that they are healthy and can pitch as good as before. People will dig the incentive laden deals after they prove they are healthy.

the guy said that only one works out...

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 03:12 PM
Even if only say Cueto becames a full fledge MLB Ace, Bailey a strong number 2 and Volquez a excellent two/three..Yeah okay, they don't all become ace's boohoo. You still have a solid young top three. I don't think they will all fail. I realize there is a risk they all will, but we have to take that if we truely want a real ace.

Hondo
12-24-2007, 03:18 PM
the guy said that only one works out...

I meant that I was counting on only 1 to rebound to a good form...

Thanks

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 03:36 PM
Even if only say Cueto becames a full fledge MLB Ace, Bailey a strong number 2 and Volquez a excellent two/three..Yeah okay, they don't all become ace's boohoo. You still have a solid young top three. I don't think they will all fail. I realize there is a risk they all will, but we have to take that if we truely want a real ace.

I don't know what you are talking about... The other poster said one of those FA's would return to form, meaning the other two probably could not be traded as you insisted...

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 03:48 PM
I don't know what you are talking about... The other poster said one of those FA's would return to form, meaning the other two probably could not be traded as you insisted...

OH! I mistook that, I thought he meant our pitching prospects...D'OH!!!!:lol::lol:

AmarilloRed
12-24-2007, 03:53 PM
We really only need to pick up one more starting pitcher(at the most). I would be perfectly happy to pick up Livan Hernandez over any of the others mentioned. He will give you 200 innings, and keep you in games(19 quality starts last year).

BLEEDS
12-24-2007, 04:02 PM
Well, how about his FIP of 4.54 in 2007? Can he improve .04 on his ERA in 2008?

FIP? Unfortunately his ERA is NOT based upon an "INDEPENDENT" Defense, it is actually VERY DEPENDENT on the Reds players behind him.

I don't put much into the FIP or DIPS, which is why I said "~4.5 ERA"

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Hondo
12-24-2007, 04:05 PM
I'd like a Cy Young Candiate like Johan Santana...

Don't want to count on a sub 4.50ERA for anything to contend or compete...

Thanks

mlbfan30
12-24-2007, 06:09 PM
I'd like a Cy Young Candiate like Johan Santana...

Don't want to count on a sub 4.50ERA for anything to contend or compete...

Thanks

In the NL...
A 3.46 ERA is what an average #1 starter gives you.
A 4.04 ERA is what an average #2 starter gives you.
A 4.52 ERA is what an average #3 starter gives you.
A 5.17 ERA is what an average #4 starter gives you.
A 6.77 ERA is what an average #5 starter gives you.

Last year, the Reds did this.....
3.73
4.21
4.58
5.29
8.08

The only real problem was the #5 spot in the rotation, which was well below average. For every other spot, the Reds were just slightly below average. The Reds could use Harang/Arroyo/Belisle, and if Bailey/Volquez/Cueto average ERAs right around 5.00, that would be a well above average back of the rotation.

Hondo
12-24-2007, 06:22 PM
Again, I don't care what the average NL # 3 - # 5 Starters did...

I want the Reds to go WIRE to WIRE like 1990...

I want this Rotation

Santana
Harang
Bedard
Arroyo
Belisle

I do not want "slightly" below average...

Thanks

757690
12-24-2007, 06:39 PM
Again, I don't care what the average NL # 3 - # 5 Starters did...

I want the Reds to go WIRE to WIRE like 1990...

I want this Rotation

Santana
Harang
Bedard
Arroyo
Belisle

I do not want "slightly" below average...

Thanks

Yeah, and I want to marry Natalie Portman. It is good to have dreams, but it is good to make plans based on reality.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 06:40 PM
Yeah, and I want to marry Natalie Portman. It is good to have dreams, but it is good to make plans based on reality.

Couldn't have said it better myself...

Hondo
12-24-2007, 07:04 PM
Yeah, and I want to marry Natalie Portman. It is good to have dreams, but it is good to make plans based on reality.

I would have picked someone Better than Natalie Portman...

No wonder you guys want Lieber and Beliesle and #4's and #5's...

Natalie Portman is a # 4 or # 5 in the Celebrity world of Models and Film Stars...

Me, I would want Jessica Simpson or Jessica Alba...

Jessica Simpson = Johan Santana
Jessica Alba = Erik Bedard

Natalie Portman = 2nd Rate Pitchers...

Thanks

schmidty622
12-24-2007, 08:59 PM
I would have picked someone Better than Natalie Portman...

No wonder you guys want Lieber and Beliesle and #4's and #5's...

Natalie Portman is a # 4 or # 5 in the Celebrity world of Models and Film Stars...

Me, I would want Jessica Simpson or Jessica Alba...

Jessica Simpson = Johan Santana
Jessica Alba = Erik Bedard

Natalie Portman = 2nd Rate Pitchers...

Thanks

The Reds have as good of a chance of getting Johan as you do of getting Jessica Simpson.

757690
12-24-2007, 09:08 PM
I would have picked someone Better than Natalie Portman...

No wonder you guys want Lieber and Beliesle and #4's and #5's...

Natalie Portman is a # 4 or # 5 in the Celebrity world of Models and Film Stars...

Me, I would want Jessica Simpson or Jessica Alba...

Jessica Simpson = Johan Santana
Jessica Alba = Erik Bedard

Natalie Portman = 2nd Rate Pitchers...

Thanks


lol.

Natalie Portman is a #1 starter since she is the whole package. She's both smart and beautiful. A graduate of Yale, and she writes for a math blog.
I wonder if either Simpson or Alba could spell "Jessica" without looking at their driving licenses.

But to take this analogy to its absurd extreme, it just shows that I like pitchers that have it all, and you like one dimensional pitchers.

And Merry Christmas. I hope Santa brings us all everything we asked for...

Dracodave
12-24-2007, 10:17 PM
lol.

Natalie Portman is a #1 starter since she is the whole package. She's both smart and beautiful. A graduate of Yale, and she writes for a math blog.
I wonder if either Simpson or Alba could spell "Jessica" without looking at their driving licenses.

But to take this analogy to its absurd extreme, it just shows that I like pitchers that have it all, and you like one dimensional pitchers.

And Merry Christmas. I hope Santa brings us all everything we asked for...


Whats the Chicken of the sea!?! I WANT TUNA!!!!

BLEEDS
12-26-2007, 01:09 PM
In the NL...
A 3.46 ERA is what an average #1 starter gives you.
A 4.04 ERA is what an average #2 starter gives you.
A 4.52 ERA is what an average #3 starter gives you.
A 5.17 ERA is what an average #4 starter gives you.
A 6.77 ERA is what an average #5 starter gives you.

Last year, the Reds did this.....
3.73
4.21
4.58
5.29
8.08


Therein lies the problem, we are "Slightly Below Average" across the board, and WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

Just to get us to "AVERAGE" we need another ~4.5ERA Starter.

By the way the "AVERAGE" NL team didn't make the playoffs, only 4 teams made it to the post season.

Harang gets by with "slightly below average" ERA with his stuff.
Arroyo MIGHT be able to post a 4.2 ERA if he returns to form.

From there, we've got Belisle, who posted a 5.29, which is SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE for the #4 spot.

We have NO Number 3 right now, and no Number 5. We need a SUB 4.5 pitcher to compete, and a ~4.5 ERA just to be MEDIOCRE.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Hondo
12-26-2007, 06:41 PM
The Reds have as good of a chance of getting Johan as you do of getting Jessica Simpson.

Oh yeah, Well she is dating Tony Romo, so I think I can compete...

Thanks

SultanOfSwing
12-27-2007, 02:01 AM
No, no, and no. If anyone was frustrated with Kyle Lohse, oh boy!