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Oxilon
12-23-2007, 09:32 PM
I know it may be a bit early for season predictions and all, considering it's only the end of Decemeber and plenty of moves can still be made. But if the season started today, how would you think it would end in the NL Central. Personally, here's how I have it going...

1) Brewers (88-74)
2) Cubs (86-76)
3) Reds (80-82)
4) Astros (75-87)
5) Cardinals (73-89)
6) Pirates (66-96)

Considering how young the Brewers are, I'd only have to imagine they'd have to get better. Especially considering they'll have Ryan Braun in their lineup the entire season, not just half. Granted, they do have issues with their pen, but their infield of Braun/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder might provide the most offense of any infield in the NL, with exception to the Mets. And an outfield of Bill Hall and Corey Hart isn't that bad either.

Regarding the Reds, I like where they're going. Offensively, we all know what they're going to be capable of. It's the starting pitching that's going to hold the team back. Bailey, Ceuto, and Volquez might have all the potential in the world, but it takes time to develop consistency in the majors.

Dracodave
12-23-2007, 09:55 PM
I think Volquez's end of the year was a good predictor for him, I really think he put it together even some of the way.

I really believe with him and Bailey it was a drive to get to the majors and STAY. They overpitched, underthought and got tossed around.

Vada Pinson Fan
12-23-2007, 09:55 PM
Just for fun Oxilon, on this day I see the following happening regarding the NL Central standings at the conclusion of the 2008 regular season:
1. Chicago - Sweet Lou gets the most from his Cubbie players. Out in 1st rd. of playoffs.
2. Milwaukee- Great infield but could be cancelled by a weaker bullpen including Eric Gagne.
3. Cincinnati- Still not enough pitching but the "kids" are so fun to watch. Look out in '09.
4. St. Louis- Edmonds is gone, Carpenter has been hurt, Rolen is either hurt again or traded.
5. Houston- Killer bees down to one "B" left (Berkman), Oswalt then who? Could pass St.Lou.
6. Pittsburgh- Should be better but never are especially if they trade Jason Bay.

mlbfan30
12-23-2007, 09:57 PM
From CAIRO projections with Diamond Mind Baseball and ran the season 100 times...... Ran Dec 19th.

NL Central W L RF RA DIV WC
Mil07 85.1 76.9 784 735 39.8 5.5
ChN07 84.1 77.9 791 758 26.2 9.3
Cin07 81.4 80.6 782 794 22.2 4.3
StL07 76.8 85.2 734 780 5.5 2.5
Hou07 74.4 87.7 750 804 6.3 1.3
Pit07 67.3 94.7 684 824 0.0 0.0

Dracodave
12-23-2007, 10:00 PM
The hapless Pirates..last place must look nice..

757690
12-23-2007, 10:41 PM
From CAIRO projections with Diamond Mind Baseball and ran the season 100 times...... Ran Dec 19th.

NL Central W L RF RA DIV WC
Mil07 85.1 76.9 784 735 39.8 5.5
ChN07 84.1 77.9 791 758 26.2 9.3
Cin07 81.4 80.6 782 794 22.2 4.3
StL07 76.8 85.2 734 780 5.5 2.5
Hou07 74.4 87.7 750 804 6.3 1.3
Pit07 67.3 94.7 684 824 0.0 0.0


Very interesting. What is their history with this? Have they done it before? How did their predictions play out before?

757690
12-23-2007, 11:00 PM
A total guess, based on nothing but my gut.

Cubs 90W Lou is a winner. Best pitching in the division.
Reds 88W 08's version of the Brewers.
Pirates 82W Duke and Maholm will bounce back. Russell a huge improvement.
Brewers 78W Fell apart in 2nd half, and bullpen now much worse.
Cards 70W Rebuilding.
Astros 68W Just a horrible organization.

mlbfan30
12-23-2007, 11:01 PM
It's new. A yankee's blogger made it up, so check out his site.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_projections_v01

757690
12-23-2007, 11:11 PM
It's new. A yankee's blogger made it up, so check out his site.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_projections_v01

thanks!

Blue
12-23-2007, 11:23 PM
I don't know if I could stand to see the Cubs in the playoffs again this season. They are the proverbial turd in the punch bowl of October baseball.

For what its worth, which is very little, I think Bailey is going to put together a nice season and be on par with Harang and Arroyo (who I also expect to rebound). The last two spots in the rotation will be boom or bust. However, if its Volquez (very likely) and Cueto, it will be nice to have pitchers with good stuff on the mound instead of junkball pitchers constantly.

But, I'd have to say the Cubs are favorites at this point. The back of their bullpen may be better without Dempster, saving Wood and Marmol for the late-innings. They're essentially the same team that won the division last year, except they added Fukudome, who will almost certainly be an improvement over who they ran out to RF last year. Then there is Geovany Soto, the young catcher, and Felix Pie. If one of them figures out what they're doing with the bat, its going to be a miserable season.

Still time for the Reds to improve, though. I wouldn't break up the Bailey/Volquez/Cueto combination, but I'd like to see the Reds improve at catcher and acquire a better fourth outfielder, as that player will likely see at least 200 ABs. Mike Cameron, preferably.

VI_RedsFan
12-24-2007, 12:31 AM
1. Cubs 86-76
2. Reds 84-78
3. Brewers 81-81
4. Cardinals 73-89
5. Astros 71-91
6. Pirates 70-92

Hopefully that Reds record will be good enough for the Wild Card.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 12:24 PM
1. Cubs 88
2. Brewers 86
3. Reds 83
4. Astros 77
5. Cardinals 75
6. Pirates 72

I think this is an improving division. If Sheets or Carpenter get 25 starts move their team up a spot...

AmarilloRed
12-24-2007, 12:34 PM
Brewers 85
Reds 82
Cubs 78
Astros 76
Cardinals 75
Pirates 72

I think the Cubs starting pitching has taken a step back, unless they make another move.

ChatterRed
12-24-2007, 02:23 PM
I see another dogfight with the winner not surpassing 90 wins.

Brewers might slide a bit.
Cubs will probably improve.
Reds should improve and were pretty decent the second half last season.
Astros should improve, but not sure they improved their pitching much.
Cards will probably slide.
Pirates are young and improving.

I think the division will be tough, mainly because we're all similar. None of the teams will do much in the playoffs.

Stephenk29
12-24-2007, 02:34 PM
Cubs - I think their underrated, that team has a lot of talen
Brewers - Gonna be a dog fight for the top 2
Reds - only because the bottom three are sliding like crazy
Astros
Pirates - Improving, could even see them ahead of the 'stros
Cardinals - Absolutely terrible year headed their way

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 02:36 PM
Whats the deal with Chris Carpenter? If he's healthy, the Cards won't be as bad as most think...

TC81190
12-24-2007, 02:36 PM
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Brewers
4. Astros
5. Cardinals
6. Pirates

TC81190
12-24-2007, 02:37 PM
Whats the deal with Chris Carpenter? If he's healthy, the Cards won't be as bad as most think...

That rotation would be Carpenter, Wainwright and nothing. The offense would be Pujols, and relatively nothing.

The Cards don't scare me.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 02:41 PM
That rotation would be Carpenter, Wainwright and nothing. The offense would be Pujols, and relatively nothing.

The Cards don't scare me.

Well, I gues this is another bestcase scenario, but Mulder and Rolen could get healthy. Also, that offense will be better with Ankiel in the lineup for the whole year and no Eckstein....

AdamDunn
12-24-2007, 02:42 PM
Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Cardinals
Pirats

TC81190
12-24-2007, 02:44 PM
Well, I gues this is another bestcase scenario, but Mulder and Rolen could get healthy. Also, that offense will be better with Ankiel in the lineup for the whole year and no Eckstein....

True, but I think Ankiel is due for some slumps...his game doesn't scream "consistency" to me. I think Mulder and Rolen are past their prime, and Rolen might still be dealt, too.

scuba17
12-24-2007, 03:28 PM
Brewers 85
Reds 82
Cubs 78
Astros 76
Cardinals 75
Pirates 72

I think the Cubs starting pitching has taken a step back, unless they make another move.

As one of the few Cubs fans around here I am just curious why you feel the way you do about the pitching. They didn't lose anyhone from the staff. I certainly think Zambrano can improve upon last year, the same can be said for Rich Hill as well. Ted Lily is a solid starter, most figured his numbers would improve once he moved over from the AL East.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 03:47 PM
That rotation would be Carpenter, Wainwright and nothing. The offense would be Pujols, and relatively nothing.

The Cards don't scare me.

forgot about Looper

Gunner44
12-24-2007, 03:52 PM
Reds - Think the offense explodes even without Hamilton and the pitching is league average
at worst
Cubs - Fight with us to the very end
Brewers - Great offense but Sheets doesnt pitch enough and a bad bullpen
Cards - Getting old and only have Pujols
Astros/Pirates - These two fighting it out for last

_Sir_Charles_
12-24-2007, 04:39 PM
For me, it'd be something close to this:

Milwaukee 90-72

Chicago 85-77

Cincinnati 84-78

Pittsburgh 81-81

St. Louis 75-87

Houston 70-92

The pitching for St. Louis and Houston will decimate them in the second half. Pittsburgh and Cincy are two of the youngest clubs and most well rounded and both could make a run for the division this year but it's unlikely either will. For both it depends a ton on the young starters. The Cubs simply don't have the hitting to overcome the powerful Brewers line-up. None of the Central teams have above average pitching staffs, so whichever team has some #3, 4 & 5 starters step up this year will gain a clear cut edge I think.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 04:44 PM
For me, it'd be something close to this:

Milwaukee 90-72

Chicago 85-77

Cincinnati 84-78

Pittsburgh 81-81

St. Louis 75-87

Houston 70-92

The pitching for St. Louis and Houston will decimate them in the second half. Pittsburgh and Cincy are two of the youngest clubs and most well rounded and both could make a run for the division this year but it's unlikely either will. For both it depends a ton on the young starters. The Cubs simply don't have the hitting to overcome the powerful Brewers line-up. None of the Central teams have above average pitching staffs, so whichever team has some #3, 4 & 5 starters step up this year will gain a clear cut edge I think.

Don't have the hitters!? The Cubs now have a guy in Fukodome that a lot of projection systems have with a .380 OBP. If they get smart and move Soriano down, that lineup could be at least good, if not great.
The Cubs definitly have a #3 pitcher too, his name is Rich Hill. I'll admit they are a little short in their back-end and the bullpen has potential, but they seem to be pretty good...

GoReds33
12-24-2007, 04:45 PM
I'm not going to make predictions yet. There are tons of moves yet to be made. There are tons of players that will over, or under perform. The Reds are in a good situation though. They have a great young team. There is finally some stability in the bullpen. The lineup has a lot of firepower, even after the Hamilton trade. I don't see how this team isn't contending well into September.

_Sir_Charles_
12-24-2007, 04:48 PM
I'm not going to predict what that Japaneese player is going to do. They bomb just as often as they succeed. I'm not saying they're not good....they are. I'm just saying they're not AS good as the Brewer's bats. Those young studs are primed to break out BIG TIME this year.

AmarilloRed
12-24-2007, 04:55 PM
As one of the few Cubs fans around here I am just curious why you feel the way you do about the pitching. They didn't lose anyone from the staff. I certainly think Zambrano can improve upon last year, the same can be said for Rich Hill as well. Ted Lily is a solid starter, most figured his numbers would improve once he moved over from the AL East.

I originally felt that the Cubs back end of the rotation was not quite as good, but I was wrong. I thereby retract my previous post.

_Sir_Charles_
12-24-2007, 05:01 PM
Yep, they've got the best rotation in the Central. But thier pen is their weakness. As is the fact that their bats don't match up with the Brew Crew's hitters. Now if they pull off the Roberts trade with the O's....things change I think. Well, depending upon what they give up for him. Another problem for the Cubs is an injury to a starter will REALLY hurt them. Moreso than the Brewers I think.

Stephenk29
12-24-2007, 05:26 PM
If I remember correctly Carpenter won't be back till May at the earliest. I don't even think that's at 100% either. Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's the latest I've heard on him.

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 07:37 PM
Yep, they've got the best rotation in the Central. But thier pen is their weakness. As is the fact that their bats don't match up with the Brew Crew's hitters. Now if they pull off the Roberts trade with the O's....things change I think. Well, depending upon what they give up for him. Another problem for the Cubs is an injury to a starter will REALLY hurt them. Moreso than the Brewers I think.

The Cubs have a better rotation than the Brewers unless Sheets makes 20 starts or more, and they have a better bullpen. Their offense is not that far behind. The Cubs are the better team...

*BaseClogger*
12-24-2007, 07:38 PM
If I remember correctly Carpenter won't be back till May at the earliest. I don't even think that's at 100% either. Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's the latest I've heard on him.

thanks, I haven't heard much about his situation...