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mth123
12-27-2007, 06:59 AM
I noticed that Derrick Lutz was starting to get some support in the prospect poll and I was wondering if anyone has any more info on him. Looking at his stats, I see a guy who has good but not great numbers across the board. I suppose not screwing up is a good thing at this point. OTOH, I don't really see anything that stands out with the possible exception of his HR/9, and that might be a good thing for GABP, but Low A and a good pitching environment like Sarasota make his stats ring a little hollow IMO. The 23 saves last season don't really impress me without some other info to verify their legitimacy. I'm not sure what to make of Lutz based on stats alone and I was wondering if anyone had any type of scouting report on him. What does he throw? How fast is his fastball? Does he have movement? Any info is appreciated.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Derrik-Lutz.shtml

icehole3
12-27-2007, 08:57 AM
googled Lutz and came up with this

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2006team.php?team=CIN

mth123
12-27-2007, 09:21 AM
Thanks Icehole.

Lutz becomes even a bigger mystery with that description. Fastball 84 to 87 but was once 94??? Spin average slider with occassional plus potential???? Fastball that had a heavy sink at one time but not so heavy now????

I know this was an old report and describing a time when Lutz had some arm issues. That would imply that when healthy he hits 94 on his fastball with a heavy sink and compliments it with a plus slider. If that profile is true, then his stats are probably an indication of real potential.

Anyone have anything more up to date on Lutz?

princeton
12-27-2007, 10:26 AM
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

sinker seems to be sinking. I suspect that he'll make a major league bullpen in a couple of years.

Mario-Rijo
12-27-2007, 07:20 PM
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

sinker seems to be sinking. I suspect that he'll make a major league bullpen in a couple of years.

I saw this in the Herrera thread and found it interesting.


Prior to June's draft, scouts most often cited five players as the most pronounced college groundball pitchers. With this in mind, I went back before the draft and hand-calculated the Ground Outs/Air Outs (not all batted ball data is publicly-available at the college level) for each, to see how Herrera compared:

GO/AO
#1 - Danny Ray Herrera (LHP, New Mexico) 2.86
#2 - Derrick Lutz (RHP, George Washington) 2.23

princeton
12-27-2007, 07:44 PM
yes, groundball pitchers seem to be a point of emphasis with the Reds

some of those guys might have better numbers as they advance to higher levels/better ballparks/better shortstops. For instance, the guys playing SS behind Lutz this year were Rosales and Valaika, both of which fizzled as shortstops and have already converted to new positions. When they hit AAA, where Paul Janisch will be shortstop for the next several years, it might help

Mario-Rijo
12-27-2007, 08:49 PM
yes, groundball pitchers seem to be a point of emphasis with the Reds

some of those guys might have better numbers as they advance to higher levels/better ballparks/better shortstops. For instance, the guys playing SS behind Lutz this year were Rosales and Valaika, both of which fizzled as shortstops and have already converted to new positions. When they hit AAA, where Paul Janisch will be shortstop for the next several years, it might help


:evil:

stormyfan25
12-31-2007, 09:51 PM
He throws a sinker that is a plus pitch any where from 88-93. He could probably get away with throwing all sinkers. His slider is average to above average at time. But while he was at Sarasota he discovered a cutter. Ive personally seen him throw cutters against lefty where they look silly. The pitch has got to be a big league pitch and so is his sinker. He has my vote cause i feel he has the best chance of helping the big league club ASAP, it may not be as a closer but he could help the back end of the bullpen in some kind of 7th or 8th inning capacity.

PS - The kid pitches with a big set of balls

mth123
01-01-2008, 01:01 AM
He throws a sinker that is a plus pitch any where from 88-93. He could probably get away with throwing all sinkers. His slider is average to above average at time. But while he was at Sarasota he discovered a cutter. Ive personally seen him throw cutters against lefty where they look silly. The pitch has got to be a big league pitch and so is his sinker. He has my vote cause i feel he has the best chance of helping the big league club ASAP, it may not be as a closer but he could help the back end of the bullpen in some kind of 7th or 8th inning capacity.

PS - The kid pitches with a big set of balls

Thanks. Good info.

stormyfan25
01-01-2008, 09:51 AM
i forgot to add in my last post. This kid is a horse. He made over 60 appearences in the minor leagues last year. Thats an incredible amount for the minors! He can pitch everyday, that makes him so valueable.

Mario-Rijo
01-01-2008, 07:37 PM
He throws a sinker that is a plus pitch any where from 88-93. He could probably get away with throwing all sinkers. His slider is average to above average at time. But while he was at Sarasota he discovered a cutter. Ive personally seen him throw cutters against lefty where they look silly. The pitch has got to be a big league pitch and so is his sinker. He has my vote cause i feel he has the best chance of helping the big league club ASAP, it may not be as a closer but he could help the back end of the bullpen in some kind of 7th or 8th inning capacity.

PS - The kid pitches with a big set of balls

Outstanding post SF25 very good info, much appreciated. It's also very encouraging to here about a guy who we knew very little about.

Mario-Rijo
01-01-2008, 07:39 PM
i forgot to add in my last post. This kid is a horse. He made over 60 appearences in the minor leagues last year. Thats an incredible amount for the minors! He can pitch everyday, that makes him so valueable.

I like that last part especially. Plus I'm sure he is one of few with that type of repertoire, makes him way more valuable when most everyone else is tossing FB/SL/CV.

stormyfan25
01-01-2008, 08:04 PM
im a big fan of this kid. He seems like he has his head on right and knows whats going on. I think we need more sinkers in Cincinnati!

princeton
01-02-2008, 01:34 PM
while he was at Sarasota he discovered a cutter. Ive personally seen him throw cutters against lefty where they look silly. The pitch has got to be a big league pitch and so is his sinker.

I'm intrigued, mostly because the Reds have got to be the single-worst team in baseball at teaching new pitches.

I'm also highly skeptical, knowing the Reds have been the single-worst team in baseball at teaching new pitches. If you ain't got it already, you won't get it here. I still remember how hard batters hit that cutter that Brian Reith "learned".

If the Reds can actually teach pitches, it will mark a change of epic proportions.

dougdirt
01-02-2008, 02:02 PM
I'm intrigued, mostly because the Reds have got to be the single-worst team in baseball at teaching new pitches.

I'm also highly skeptical, knowing the Reds have been the single-worst team in baseball at teaching new pitches. If you ain't got it already, you won't get it here. I still remember how hard batters hit that cutter that Brian Reith "learned".

If the Reds can actually teach pitches, it will mark a change of epic proportions.

Yeah, lets worry about what instructors couldn't teach in 2001 or 2002 who aren't with the club anymore.

princeton
01-02-2008, 02:06 PM
Yeah, lets worry about what instructors couldn't teach in 2001 or 2002 who aren't with the club anymore.

so far, there's no reason to think that the new Yugo workers won't produce more Yugos, as all of the other "new" Yugo workers have done for 20 freaking years

dougdirt
01-02-2008, 02:10 PM
Still the worst analogy I have ever read.

To think that something 5-10-15-20 'freaking' years ago as you would say, has anything to do with the development of players today is crazy talk. No one is in place from that long ago. Different owner, different GM, different directors, different instructors and different coaches. They were the same uniforms, but thats about it.

RedsManRick
01-02-2008, 02:14 PM
so far, there's no reason to think that the new Yugo workers won't produce more Yugos, as all of the other "new" Yugo workers have done for 20 freaking years

This is such a bad metaphor. It's not just new workers. It's new machinery. It's new materials. It's new supervisors. It's new design. In other words, the only thing that's the same is the name on the front of the factory. Everything else is different.

Don't get me wrong, the cars might continue to be crap for legitimate reasons, but this inaccurate analogy is is just lazy thinking. "Sure, everything has completely turned over, but if I completely ignore that reality and associate the franchise with a bad car company, I can be pessimistic without having to actually make supporting arguments."

However these prospects turn out, that will be a result of the particulars of the current prospects, current instructors, current methods, and current decisions. It will have nothing to do with the failures of past prospects. Period. Unless of course you'd like to actually make the argument that some magic karmic energy is at play... In that case, let's just go root for somebody else because the Reds are doomed.

princeton
01-02-2008, 02:20 PM
However these prospects turn out, that will be a result of the particulars of the current prospects, current instructors, current methods, and current decisions. It will have nothing to do with the failures of past prospects. Period.


we slowly released half of the people and hired cheap replacements lacking good track records. As we've done for 20 freaking years.

RedsManRick
01-02-2008, 03:29 PM
we slowly released half of the people and hired cheap replacements lacking good track records. As we've done for 20 freaking years.

Finally a salient point. I'm not trying to be obtuse. There are legitimate gripes to be made, surely. Let's make them instead of relying on a weak metaphor.

So what do our evaluators/instructors/coaches/etc. do poorly? I'm curious.

princeton
01-02-2008, 03:42 PM
I'm not trying to be obtuse.



it takes more than just changes to make a productive system. if anything, changes can cause a real mess

the Reds changed SDs, and THAT seems to be paying off. Things have obviously improved on the scouting end, even if the first round has been unimpressive so far.

But the developmental people have generally been the same, or newer unproven people. the situation called for at least one top person with a successful track record. The Reds MIGHT get out of this OK, but until you see what they actually produce, you just won't know. Right now, we're beta-testing this new system, which is probably pretty close to the old system.

Mario-Rijo
01-02-2008, 05:29 PM
it takes more than just changes to make a productive system. if anything, changes can cause a real mess

the Reds changed SDs, and THAT seems to be paying off. Things have obviously improved on the scouting end, even if the first round has been unimpressive so far.

But the developmental people have generally been the same, or newer unproven people. the situation called for at least one top person with a successful track record. The Reds MIGHT get out of this OK, but until you see what they actually produce, you just won't know. Right now, we're beta-testing this new system, which is probably pretty close to the old system.

I gotta agree with this, the FO keeps hiring guys who are either unproven or have proven that they know little. Exhibit A: Rookie League pitching coach Tom Browning.

Scrap Irony
01-16-2008, 10:26 AM
Johnny Cueto learned a circle change two years ago in Spring Training. From a Red employee. (Mario Soto, if memory serves.)

Mario-Rijo
01-16-2008, 05:28 PM
Johnny Cueto learned a circle change two years ago in Spring Training. From a Red employee. (Mario Soto, if memory serves.)

Some aren't too bad, but few if any are excellent and a few are downright laughable. Soto would be one that seems to be getting results when he helps so I would have to consider him solid (at least in teaching the change-up).