PDA

View Full Version : Who is our future starting right fielder?



AmarilloRed
12-27-2007, 10:37 PM
I think this is an important question to bring up. From all accounts, Jay Bruce was originally to replace Ken Griffey Jr. in right field after the 2008 season. I have no doubt the Reds will buy out his option year in 2009. We have now seen a trade of Josh Hamilton, who was our starting center fielder. Dunn may be re-signed, and Bruce may take Hamilton's spot, but that still leaves right field to be sorted out after 2008.
Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are good reserve outfielders, but neither can be counted on to start in the outfield. Freel is too fragile, and Hopper does not take enough walks to be a legitimate lead-off hitter. Dickerson is a good defensive outfielder, but he is not a good hitter. Stubbs and Dorn are possibilities for the future, but right now neither is close to the major leagues.
You can attempt to find a right fielder in free agency, but the market for outfielders seems really inflated. In the end, it may very well be that the Reds have no choice but to pick up Griffey's option and sign him to an extension, unless there is another starting outfielder possibility I have missed.

AdamDunn
12-27-2007, 10:42 PM
Bruce and get a true CF via FA. The entire market is inflated, but that's the only way you win.

AmarilloRed
12-27-2007, 10:45 PM
Center fielders
Mike Cameron (35) - Type B
Jason Lane (31)
Kenny Lofton (41) - Type B
Corey Patterson (28)

Here are the 2008 CF free agents.

Center fielders
Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Jim Edmonds (39)
Jacque Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (33)

Here are the 2009 CF free agents.

TheBigLebowski
12-27-2007, 10:47 PM
With any luck, Stubbs will make this question a lot easier to answer.

Even if he doesn't, our farm system is as fertile now as it has ever been. We'll find someone.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2007, 11:01 PM
Bruce

*BaseClogger*
12-27-2007, 11:02 PM
I think it is too early to anwser that question. If we make the playoffs money may not be an issue in next year's free agency, and if we miss the playoffs it most likely means we traded some of our vets and hopefully got another OF prospect...

AmarilloRed
12-27-2007, 11:05 PM
Bruce

If Bruce plays right, who will be in center?

mlbfan30
12-27-2007, 11:49 PM
If Bruce plays right, who will be in center?

Griffey

Bigredfan#1
12-27-2007, 11:54 PM
What if Griffey has a big year, hits 40 HRs, do the Reds try to keep him? It would be awesome to see him do it and keep doing it for about 4 more years and pass BBonds!

*BaseClogger*
12-27-2007, 11:58 PM
What if Griffey has a big year, hits 40 HRs, do the Reds try to keep him? It would be awesome to see him do it and keep doing it for about 4 more years and pass BBonds!

I can't imagine he will be able to play the outfield, let alone stay healthy, in 4 years...

Bip Roberts
12-28-2007, 12:15 AM
If Bruce plays right, who will be in center?

Ill worry about that in a year or 2 from now. Its way to far into the future to even start to guess if Stubbs will improve or if who is going to be free agents.

5ToolPlaya
12-28-2007, 12:21 AM
When you have young power arms you can trade for anything you need.

For the first time I know of, the Reds have several of those to trade.

lo ryder
12-28-2007, 12:27 AM
Just my opinion, but the Reds certainly dont need to trade young arms for OFers.

*BaseClogger*
12-28-2007, 12:33 AM
Just my opinion, but the Reds certainly dont need to trade young arms for OFers.

I agree. This is a much better problem than trying to find pitchers...

Krawhitham
12-28-2007, 12:41 AM
What if Griffey has a big year, hits 40 HRs, do the Reds try to keep him? It would be awesome to see him do it and keep doing it for about 4 more years and pass BBonds!


Yes they will keep him

40 put him at what 633, he is then closing in on Mays. The Reds will pick up the option and spin the advertising toward watching JR pass Mays the following year. Plus he would only be 129 behind Barroid

Stephenk29
12-28-2007, 01:41 AM
Seems like a question that's impossible to answer right now. I say wait to see how Griffey's upcoming year pans out and then decide from there. There's always the option of Free Agents or trades etc. As of right now it seems like Griffey.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2007, 02:48 AM
Depends on what happens with Dunn and the progress of stubbs way too much to answer that right now.

gobucks106
12-28-2007, 10:42 AM
How about Danny Dorn in center and Bruce in right!

PopFlyHomer
12-28-2007, 11:03 AM
Hopper in center, Bruce in right....HOPPER is your everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, com'on guys...does everyone feel last year was just a fluke for him? I don't. The guy was unstoppable after the all-star break.

terminator
12-28-2007, 11:07 AM
I don't think it matters much. You don't need an All-Star in every position so with the offensive production of Dunn and (hopefully) Bruce, someone with okay offensive numbers and good defense would be just fine. A year ago I would have said that Denorfia could be that guy, but regardless, it won't be that hard to find someone (maybe a platoon). We have plus (or at least average) power in every other position, so I think that CF -- just like SS on most teams -- could be manned by a defense-oriented player.

AdamDunn
12-28-2007, 11:29 AM
Hopper in center, Bruce in right....HOPPER is your everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, com'on guys...does everyone feel last year was just a fluke for him? I don't. The guy was unstoppable after the all-star break.

I hope you're right. He's excellent defensively and is a right handed lead off bat. I want one more year to see if he's for real, but I suspect you're right.

Nasty_Boy
12-28-2007, 12:32 PM
Hopper is an average defender. He's capable of doing the job, but don't make him out to be Willie Mays. Also, the majority of Hopper's hits came off of bunts and INF hits. The odds of him being able to repeat that is very slim. There is an incredible amount of luck involved in Hopper's hits. I'm sure that teams will defense the bunt better against Norris because they don't fear him swinging away. I will say that I like Norris much much more than Freel.

BLEEDS
12-28-2007, 01:27 PM
IFF we extend Dunn for 4-5 years, then I ARGUABLY and against my better wishes, could state that we could live with Hopper - assuming he continues to produce at the same level he did last year.

If you put a gun to my head, now that Josh is gone, I couldn't name another Red who is qualified to lead off - certainly not Freel, although I'm sure he'll platoon there as long as he's on our roster.

IFF we have Votto at 1B, BP at 2nd, EE at 3rd, along with Bruce and Dunn in the OF, you can live with Hopper, until someone from the Farm comes up to take his spot - Dorn, Stubbs, whoever in 2010 and beyond.
Gonzo at SS is not long-term, but hopefuly another SS (Kepp?) can come in and hit 2nd, giving us a lineup like this:

Hopper, CF
*Kepp/??, SS
Bruce, RF
Dunn, LF
BP, 2B
EE, 3B
*Votto, 1B
Ross/??, C

* - I think I would alter this depending on who the SS O' the future was, and against Lefty SP. Trouble is we've got 5 guys who can go 20-25+ HR power in EE, Votto, BP, Bruce and Dunn (who can go 40+), so you don't want to waste them lower in the lineup (How we continued to bat Dunn 5th still amazes me with his OBP/OPS so high)

I would probably put Votto in the #2 spot versus righties, since he's a VERY patient hitter and high OBP so he'd be the best fit. Kepp can get in there versus lefties, either in place of Votto or at SS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 01:40 PM
Hopper in center, Bruce in right....HOPPER is your everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, com'on guys...does everyone feel last year was just a fluke for him? I don't. The guy was unstoppable after the all-star break.

Yikes. Hopper is a poor man's Juan Pierre. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker loves Juan Pierre. Now, if we could just get rid of that base-clogging Dunn and replace him with Jacque Jones we'll be all set. :rolleyes:

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 01:54 PM
I'd like to go on record as saying I like Freel better than Hopper, whose major league sample size is extremely small, can't take a walk, and his ten years in the minors gave him an OPS of .678, compared to Freel's .757 in eleven years.

Freel proved himself in the bigs three seasons in a row before having one injury-plagued off year. Ideally, they're both on the bench watching Bruce play but to hate on Freel because Hopper was good for 300 or so at-bats is short-sighted, I think.

BLEEDS
12-28-2007, 04:02 PM
I'd like to go on record as saying I like Freel better than Hopper, whose major league sample size is extremely small, can't take a walk, and his ten years in the minors gave him an OPS of .678, compared to Freel's .757 in eleven years.

Freel proved himself in the bigs three seasons in a row before having one injury-plagued off year. Ideally, they're both on the bench watching Bruce play but to hate on Freel because Hopper was good for 300 or so at-bats is short-sighted, I think.

I'll go on record as saying I really don't like either of them, especially when you're talking about a "true CF lead-off type", but they are the best we've got for now, unfortunately.

Freel is a MENACE in CF, making "spectacular" plays only because he gets bad reads/jumps then has to make the crazy leaps, when other guys could make it look routine. I'd rather have his bat of 2006 than Hopper's no doubt, but neither of them really take a walk.

The guys who take the most walks on this team, also manage to have 20+ HR power - not counting Hatteberg, who's DEFINITELY NOT a Leadoff candidate...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 04:24 PM
I'll go on record as saying I really don't like either of them, especially when you're talking about a "true CF lead-off type", but they are the best we've got for now, unfortunately.

Freel is a MENACE in CF, making "spectacular" plays only because he gets bad reads/jumps then has to make the crazy leaps, when other guys could make it look routine. I'd rather have his bat of 2006 than Hopper's no doubt, but neither of them really take a walk.

The guys who take the most walks on this team, also manage to have 20+ HR power - not counting Hatteberg, who's DEFINITELY NOT a Leadoff candidate...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Agreed, mostly. I'm not nuts about Freel as an everyday player either. But those who think Hopper is a great longterm solution to CF/ leadoff are in for a rude awakening. My fear is that the Reds' new manager is one of them.

I like Cyclone's* lineup, which is something like:

Votto
EE
Dunn
Griffey
Bruce
Phillips
Ross
Gonzo


*dude from ORG who's way more knowledgeable than me

Prediction: lots of Hopper/Phillips at the top of the order. Lots of screaming about it on RZ.

jimbo
12-28-2007, 04:27 PM
I'd like to go on record as saying I like Freel better than Hopper, whose major league sample size is extremely small, can't take a walk.......

BB/PA (Walks per plate appearance)
2007

Freel .059
Hopper .060

They are both equally bad at taking a walk, small sample size or not.

Personally, I don't want either one of them starting in CF, even if it's only for a month or so. If the season starts today, start Bruce.

As far as the discussion of picking up Griffey's option for 2009. I love Junior and have supported him through his entire stint as a Red, but I think this should be his last season as a Red no matter what kind of numbers he puts up this season. When considering his injury history and age, I see no logical reason as to bringing him back beyond 2008 for the money he will probably be asking. I hope and pray that this season ends up being a big one for Junior and one that includes a postseason so he can go out on a positive note.

If I would have to guess, I think the Reds FO probably feels the same.

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 04:30 PM
BB/PA (Walks per plate appearance)
2007

Freel .059
Hopper .060
They are both equally bad at taking a walk, small sample size or not.

Personally, I don't want either one of them starting in CF, even if it's only for a month or so. If the season starts today, start Bruce.

As far as the discussion of picking up Griffey's option for 2009. I love Junior and have supported him through his entire stint as a Red, but I think this should be his last season as a Red no matter what kind of numbers he puts up this season. When considering his injury history and age, I see no logical reason as to bringing him back beyond 2008 for the money he will probably be asking. I hope and pray that this season ends up being a big one for Junior and one that includes a postseason so he can go out on a positive note.

If I would have to guess, I think the Reds FO probably feels the same.

It's been established that it was a down year for Freel. He took like twice as many walks as Hopper did in the minors. I'm not saying he's Barry Bonds with the walks, but in his career he's better at it than Hopper is or probably ever will be.

jimbo
12-28-2007, 04:56 PM
It's been established that it was a down year for Freel. He took like twice as many walks as Hopper did in the minors. I'm not saying he's Barry Bonds with the walks, but in his career he's better at it than Hopper is or probably ever will be.

Good point. Freel's career BB/PA is .101.

Having considered that though, instead of coming to the conclusion that last season was a "down year" for Freel, it could also be considered as a beginning of a downward career spiral and that 2007 .060 number could be more indicative of what's to come.

Personally, I think Freel has already seen his best seasons.

757690
12-28-2007, 05:18 PM
I think that both guys succeed as part time players or platoon players. That has been proven with Freel, and I think the stats reveal that with Hopper too.

If they get 350-450 PA next year, they'll be productive. More than that is risky.

BLEEDS
12-28-2007, 05:19 PM
I like Cyclone's* lineup, which is something like:

Votto
EE
Dunn
Griffey
Bruce
Phillips
Ross
Gonzo



That's good for 2008 - although Votto surely isn't the Prototypical LeadOff guy - but the thread is about LONG TERM CF (and lineups).

Something also tells me that we won't bat Dunn/Griffey/Bruce all back-to-back either, you know Ye Olde Lefty-Lefty scariiness that is still leaving residue from Narron.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

SMcGavin
12-28-2007, 06:13 PM
Future starting RF is Jay Bruce. From what I have heard he will be alright in CF, certainly good enough to hold it down this year, but his future lies as a plus defender in right. The bigger question is who is the future starting CF, because unless Stubbs really puts it together this season it's probably going to have to come from out of the organization.

I(heart)Freel
12-28-2007, 06:43 PM
As far as the discussion of picking up Griffey's option for 2009. I love Junior and have supported him through his entire stint as a Red, but I think this should be his last season as a Red no matter what kind of numbers he puts up this season. When considering his injury history and age, I see no logical reason as to bringing him back beyond 2008 for the money he will probably be asking.

Hard to say "no matter what," especially given the assumption that Junior would ask for the bank in salary.

Truth is, he gave a big discount last time. Might he again?

Let's say he says, yea, I'll come back. In fact, don't even pick up the option. I'll sign a new contract for $5 mill a year for 2 more years.

Still wouldn't want him back if he's sitting in the mid 600s next year at this time?

Vada Pinson Fan
12-28-2007, 07:05 PM
Great posts guys!!! All of your reasons above point out to me that the Reds will (hopefully) acquire Mike Cameron to man centerfield and put Jay Bruce in rightfield with Adam Dunn holding down leftfield. So at the beginning of the 2008 season, let's say Cameron and Bruce platoon in CF and Bruce is the first to spell both Dunn and Griffey when they are out of the lineup. Dunn could also spot start at 1st to get Hopper some AB's and if Freel and Hatteberg are packaged in a trade somewhere, AD becomes the backup 1st baseman behind Joey Votto. I don't have anymore of a problem with Adam playing 1st than I do with him playing LF. If the Reds don't pick up Jr's 2009 option, we'll be glad Krivsky signed Mike Cameron for the upcoming season. Should the Reds not want to platoon Bruce with Cameron, then let it go this way-
Adam Dunn (LF).
Jay Bruce (CF).
Ken Griffey Jr. (RF)
Mike Cameron (4th OF'er)
Norris Hopper (5th OF'er)
Ryan Freel (traded). Now that's a strong outfield complement!!!

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 07:12 PM
Great posts guys!!! All of your reasons above point out to me that the Reds will (hopefully) acquire Mike Cameron to man centerfield and put Jay Bruce in rightfield with Adam Dunn holding down leftfield. So at the beginning of the 2008 season, let's say Cameron and Bruce platoon in CF and Bruce is the first to spell both Dunn and Griffey when they are out of the lineup. Dunn could also spot start at 1st to get Hopper some AB's and if Freel and Hatteberg are packaged in a trade somewhere, AD becomes the backup 1st baseman behind Joey Votto. I don't have anymore of a problem with Adam playing 1st than I do with him playing LF. If the Reds don't pick up Jr's 2009 option, we'll be glad Krivsky signed Mike Cameron for the upcoming season. Should the Reds not want to platoon Bruce with Cameron, then let it go this way-
Adam Dunn (LF).
Jay Bruce (CF).
Ken Griffey Jr. (RF)
Mike Cameron (4th OF'er)
Norris Hopper (5th OF'er)
Ryan Freel (traded). Now that's a strong outfield complement!!!

The hard part will be getting Cameron to sign to be a 4th OF, sitting for a rookie; I just don't see that happening.

Vada Pinson Fan
12-28-2007, 07:48 PM
The hard part will be getting Cameron to sign to be a 4th OF, sitting for a rookie; I just don't see that happening.

Big Money has a way of making it happen. It's not like Cameron will ever make the Hall of Fame and needs every season's stats as a starter to make it. Besides, Krivsky could honestly tell Cameron if you have the best stats out of Spring training over Bruce, well, then CF is yours and Jay Bruce may find himself in Louisville for a priod of time. Mike Cameron is the insurance policy the Reds need if the Reds don't accept Griffey's '09 option.

If the money is there, MC will play here. He would love to play along side the guy he was traded (away) for.

757690
12-28-2007, 07:59 PM
The hard part will be getting Cameron to sign to be a 4th OF, sitting for a rookie; I just don't see that happening.

First, he is starting the season with a 30 game suspension, so no team is going to sign him as anything but a fourth outfielder.

Second, all Cameron has to do is to see how often the fourth outfielder for the Reds has player these last few years. The fourth outfielder for the Reds is as close to a full time position as possible. Not saying that he would take it, just that he should if the money is right.

BLEEDS
12-28-2007, 08:12 PM
The hard part will be getting Cameron to sign to be a 4th OF, sitting for a rookie; I just don't see that happening.

Well to START the year, Cameron has to sit out 25 games, so he already is playing "Part Time"... surely he won't mind the fact the he won't get to play until mid-May, so he will have to take it slow anyway.

Actually the more I think about it, the more I like it.

2 year deal (with and option?) should make him happy. He can play part-time in 2008, then be full-time in 2009 when Griffey moves on and Bruce moves to RF.

By 2010, we can see if Dorn/Stubbs are ready to play with the Big Boys, otherwise pick up Cam's option or look elsewhere...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Natty Redlocks
12-28-2007, 08:29 PM
Okay, you guys got me. I forgot about the suspension. Still, I think to get him to sign they'd have to tell him Bruce is starting the season in Louisville and won't be up until Junior gets hurt -- which I actually think is the plan, anyway. I still don't think they're interested, because they figure they've got CF/leadoff covered between Freel and Hopper for now at least, and if they throw any more money at a FA, it's going to be a pitcher. A permanent CF solution is just going to have to wait, I think. I see Bruce as RF all the way.

gedred69
12-28-2007, 08:36 PM
Seems to me there is a lot of fixation on Stubbs, who so far has yielded mixed results, and no higher than low A. Dorn skipped low A going directly to high A, and ending up performing extremely well at AA. I would expect him to be the closest MLB prospect of the two.

sweetsport06
12-28-2007, 08:56 PM
two words: norris hooper

Z-Fly
01-02-2008, 01:56 PM
If Bruce plays right, who will be in center?

Drew Stubbs maybe:dunno:. I don't think it is a big problem to have. I think it is along the same lines as who will be our catcher in two year? We will figure it out a long the way.

VI_RedsFan
01-02-2008, 02:43 PM
Who is our future starting RFer? Jay Bruce. Who is our future starting Cfer should be the real question.

AmarilloRed
01-03-2008, 02:08 AM
Who is our future starting RFer? Jay Bruce. Who is our future starting Cfer should be the real question.

I originally assumed Bruce would be taking over for Hamilton in center. That is why the question was phrased the way it was.

smoke6
01-03-2008, 03:34 PM
Center fielders
Mike Cameron (35) - Type B
Jason Lane (31)
Kenny Lofton (41) - Type B
Corey Patterson (28)

Here are the 2008 CF free agents.

Center fielders
Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Jim Edmonds (39)
Jacque Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (33)

Here are the 2009 CF free agents.
Corey Patterson used to kill the Reds (can't speak about him since he left Chi). I would mind seeing that for the right price.

SMcGavin
01-03-2008, 07:19 PM
Seems to me there is a lot of fixation on Stubbs, who so far has yielded mixed results, and no higher than low A. Dorn skipped low A going directly to high A, and ending up performing extremely well at AA. I would expect him to be the closest MLB prospect of the two.

But Dorn is a LH bat who plays the corner outfield. I'd agree his bat is closer to being ready than Stubbs, but our corner outfielders look to be pretty much set for the forseeable future with Dunn and Bruce. I can't speak for everyone else but the reason I am more concerned about Stubbs is that his panning out would fill what I think will be the Reds biggest non-pitching need: a great defensive CF who hits right handed. If Dorn pans out, he's probably a backup OF or trade bait.

VI_RedsFan
01-03-2008, 08:08 PM
I originally assumed Bruce would be taking over for Hamilton in center. That is why the question was phrased the way it was.

Yeah i know i wasn't trying to bash you. Sorry if it came out like that.