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AmarilloRed
12-30-2007, 01:44 PM
Slim pickings for starters

Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky talks in generalities about his club.

But by extrapolating what he says in general terms, you can come up with a clue as to specifics.

For example, when Krivsky said Saturday, "It's tough to rely on young guys who have never been in the big leagues from the get-go. Triple-A numbers rarely translate," you can assume the Reds are trying to add a veteran to the mix in the starting rotation.

That's because two of the four pitchers competing for the remaining two spots in the rotation - Johnny Cueto and Matt Maloney - have never thrown a pitch in the big leagues. The other two - Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez - have very limited time in the majors.

So you know from his comment about Triple-A numbers not always translating to big-league production that Krivsky would like to add an experienced starter.

The question is how much the Reds are willing to pay - in terms of players traded or dollars given to a free agent.

We know they're not going to mortgage the future because they balked at giving up Bailey or Cueto in a trade for Erik Bedard.

Instead, they sent Josh Hamilton to Texas for Volquez, a 24-year-old right-hander.

That gives the Reds four young but talented pitchers competing for the last two spots in the rotation.

"We feel good about having those four competing," Krivsky said. "We're trying to create competition for jobs. That helps everyone play to their best level."

But, again, it would be nice to add a veteran to the mix.

Krivsky said the Reds have had discussions with the agents for free-agent starters out there. He won't say who.

There are a lot of veterans who have had past success, but they are coming off bad years or injuries.

That's why they're available and won't demand contracts that equal the gross national product of a developing country.

Here's who's out there:

Livan Hernandez: He was 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA last season with Arizona. He eats up innings - over 200 the last eight seasons.

Jon Lieber: He was limited last season by a foot injury. He's two years removed from a 17-win, 218-inning season. But at 37, his best days might be behind him.

Josh Fogg: He was 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA last season in Colorado.

Kris Benson: He didn't pitch at all last season. But he threw for scouts in Arizona a couple of weeks ago and looked healthy. He was 10-8 with a 4.13 ERA in 2005 and won 11 games in '06.

Freddy Garcia: He's been very good in the past but was 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA in only 11 games last season with Philadelphia and is coming off shoulder surgery.

Bartolo Colon: He was one of the top pitchers in baseball before injuries sidetracked him. He was 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA in '05, but he been limited to a total of 28 starts the last two seasons.

Brett Tomko: The former Red loves Cincinnati. He used to show up at Cinergy Field on off days after he had been traded to Seattle. He was 4-12 with the Padres and Dodgers last season.

Matt Clement: A former top starter derailed by injuries. He did not pitch last season and was limited to 12 games in '06.

It's not a really inspiring list. The other factor is if the Reds sign a veteran, he needs to be ready to go from the start. That probably eliminates Garcia and maybe Colon.

There's also the possibility of a trade. Cleveland left-hander Cliff Lee is reportedly available.

What the Reds have to decide is if the external solutions are better than what they have.

Based on comments on my blog, I think fans are willing to accept a youth movement.

Of course, it's December. If those young guys aren't getting it done in April and May, fans might be of another opinion.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

I would prefer the Reds sign a veteran starter like Lieber, Hernandez or Colon. It might be best if Bailey were to start 2008 in AAA to build up his innings, unless he truly dominates in spring training. It would be good to have another starter available in case neither Bailey or Vasquez are ready.

Newman4
12-30-2007, 01:52 PM
There's also the possibility of a trade. Cleveland left-hander Cliff Lee is reportedly available.

I wonder if this is speculation or WK has let this blurb out. I know Lee was mentioned a few months ago as a possibility but I haven't heard anything since.

AmarilloRed
12-30-2007, 01:54 PM
There's also the possibility of a trade. Cleveland left-hander Cliff Lee is reportedly available.

I would if this is speculation or WK has let this blurb out. I know Lee was mentioned a few months ago as a possibility but I haven't heard anything since.

I have seen Fay mention this several times in his blog, but I have not heard it anywhere else.

Edd Roush
12-30-2007, 02:03 PM
Where's Jason Jennings on that list? I agree with one opinion from the ORG that he may be the best bet to put up league-average numbers.

I like the idea of adding one more starter and creating additional competition for the rotation.

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Jennings
Volquez/Bailey/Cueto/Maloney

Sure looks like an above-average rotation and I still believe that we have an above-average line-up.

mlbfan30
12-30-2007, 05:18 PM
Jennings is a horrible starter, absolutely horrible. Don't let his 2006 fool you. He's worse or just as bad as Milton. Not only does he suck, but he's also a big injury risk. The Reds won't be able to get a great pitcher, but they should either get...
Innings eater with bad ERA
Good ERA but injury risk
Jennings qualifies for both, so he's not someone the Reds should target.

PickOff
12-30-2007, 05:42 PM
I haven't seen the Reds mentioned in conjunction with Kris Benson, but if they could sign him for 3-4 million for 1 yr with an option for 2 he might be worth it.

Certainly he is an injury risk, but outside of Colon, he has the most potential upside.

If his agent isn't putting lipstick on a pig, maybe he is indeed over an injury which he has been pitching through for the last couple years.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20071218_Phils_get_a_look_at_righthander_Kris_Bens on.html

That said, this is his third surgery, I beleive. Good and bad, I suppose. At least he has a history of responding well, but this latest injury may just mean there is more to come.

He is a pretty severe groundball pitcher with a g/f of 1.23 for his career. Last year he gave up a lot of homers, but if this surgery addresses his problems last year then I say go for it.

It may cost more than 3-4 million, however, and it is hard to justify giving Benson too much more.

Newman4
12-30-2007, 06:35 PM
None of the FA guys are too appealing. I'd imagine most teams will wait it out and give some of them a spring invitee.

jmac
12-30-2007, 09:54 PM
WK continues to speak of only 2 spots open.
What if Belisle has a bad ST ? I mean is he a total lock for the rotation regardless ?
To me, he should be competing with the others for one of the "three" spots open.

757690
12-30-2007, 10:00 PM
Jennings is a horrible starter, absolutely horrible. Don't let his 2006 fool you. He's worse or just as bad as Milton. Not only does he suck, but he's also a big injury risk. The Reds won't be able to get a great pitcher, but they should either get...
Innings eater with bad ERA
Good ERA but injury risk
Jennings qualifies for both, so he's not someone the Reds should target.

What are you basing this on? Last Year? He was injured the whole year, and tried to pitch through the injury, so all of his stats from last year are completely meaningless.

2007 is more of an anomaly than 2006. His FIP and XFIP were pretty constant from 2004-2006, around 4.70.

When he his healthy, is a good starter. He has a 4.48 ERA away from Coors, and does not give up a lot of home runs (around 20 a year when healthy). In fact, he is a sinkerball pitcher who has had some of his best success at GABP (3.32 ERA and 2 homers in 3 games). He does walk too many batters, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so he gets around 20 DP a season.

The only question is, "Is he healthy?" If he is, and I have no idea if he is, then he would be as nice #4 or #5.

mlbfan30
12-30-2007, 11:08 PM
What are you basing this on? Last Year? He was injured the whole year, and tried to pitch through the injury, so all of his stats from last year are completely meaningless.

2007 is more of an anomaly than 2006. His FIP and XFIP were pretty constant from 2004-2006, around 4.70.

When he his healthy, is a good starter. He has a 4.48 ERA away from Coors, and does not give up a lot of home runs (around 20 a year when healthy). In fact, he is a sinkerball pitcher who has had some of his best success at GABP (3.32 ERA and 2 homers in 3 games). He does walk too many batters, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so he gets around 20 DP a season.

The only question is, "Is he healthy?" If he is, and I have no idea if he is, then he would be as nice #4 or #5.

I base it off watching him pitch in person... but using stats look at this.
His Career ERA is 4.91, FIP is 4.81, and a 99ERA+
Fine, you might want to say league average, however...
His WHIP is a pretty bad 1.55 , Miltons worse WHIP in any season with the Reds was 1.53. Jennings gives up 10 Hits/9, and also almost 4 BB/9. That's horrible. Jennings also gives up 1 HR/9 innings, which isn't that great. He also doesn't go deep into games. He averages less than 6 IP per start.
You look at his career 1.38GB/FB, but then I look at his career 22% LD rate, which is absolutly horrible. Jennings is very hittable, and gets hit hard.
What I saw in person was a guy throwing fastballs at 86, and sliders at 82. He's a huge injury risk, but also not good. There's no point in signing a person like him, who will cost probably around 5M, will most likely be injured, and will be very hittable and a bad pitcher when he pitches. He would be another Milton, but probably worse.

AmarilloRed
12-30-2007, 11:28 PM
He was pitching in Coors(an obvious hitters park) for a very long time, and his statistics last year were skewed by the fact that he was injured. He might be someone to look at if he is completely healthy. I don't think his stuff last year is any indication of how he can pitch when he was healthy.

757690
12-30-2007, 11:41 PM
I base it off watching him pitch in person... but using stats look at this.
His Career ERA is 4.91, FIP is 4.81, and a 99ERA+
Fine, you might want to say league average, however...
His WHIP is a pretty bad 1.55 , Miltons worse WHIP in any season with the Reds was 1.53. Jennings gives up 10 Hits/9, and also almost 4 BB/9. That's horrible. Jennings also gives up 1 HR/9 innings, which isn't that great. He also doesn't go deep into games. He averages less than 6 IP per start.
You look at his career 1.38GB/FB, but then I look at his career 22% LD rate, which is absolutly horrible. Jennings is very hittable, and gets hit hard.
What I saw in person was a guy throwing fastballs at 86, and sliders at 82. He's a huge injury risk, but also not good. There's no point in signing a person like him, who will cost probably around 5M, will most likely be injured, and will be very hittable and a bad pitcher when he pitches. He would be another Milton, but probably worse.


That last statement is just not supportable with his stats.

First, you and I could find all sorts of stats that say that Jennings is good or bad. You can do that with every pitcher, especially an average pitcher. The key is isolating the important stats and focusing on those.

The first and by far most important stat for any possible Reds pitcher is home runs. Eric Milton averaged almost 32 homers a season before he joined the Reds. He also was a fly ball pitcher, so that number was bound to go up. Jason Jennings averages 20 homers a game while pitching half of his games in Coors Field. He is a groundball/linedrive pitcher, so that number should stay close to the same if he were to pitch for the Reds. His homer per 9 innings is the same or better than Harang's and Arroyo's.

The next most important stat for a possible pitcher for the Reds is GB/FB. Jennnings' is 1.38 as you stated. Milton's was around .70. Twice as bad as Jennings.

WHIP is important, but a lot depends on his GB/FB. Milton had an okay WHIP before he came to the Reds, around 1.28, but since he was a flyball pitcher, he gave up a lot more HR's, and hence was not very successful. Since Jennings getstwice as many groundballs, he should not be as bad as Milton, and definitely not worse.

The speed of the pitches you saw was when he was injured, and are not relevant, if he is healthy.

So I agree that if Jennings is throwing the same as he did last year, then stay very far away from him. However, if he has his velocity back and is healthy, then he is a good risk. Still a risk, since I agree that he will always be an injury risk, but a risk worth taking, if he is healthy.

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 11:53 AM
All I know is, if we spent $11M+ per year on a Closer, we'd be FOOLISH to NOT go and get a SP or three...

IMO we have 3 question marks in our rotation, and the Reality of our SP's are as such:

#1 - Harang
#2 - Incomplete
#3 - Arroyo
#4 - Incomplete
#5 - Belisle

Bailey in the rotation for the year is an unknown at best. You can hope he plays to a #4, but more likely he is a #5, pushing Belisle to #4.

We need, at a minimum, a #3 Starter - which equates to a ~4.5 ERA, and then hope Arroyo can handle being a #2 for a full season.

That's A LOT of IFs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
12-31-2007, 12:31 PM
All I know is, if we spent $11M+ per year on a Closer, we'd be FOOLISH to NOT go and get a SP or three...

IMO we have 3 question marks in our rotation, and the Reality of our SP's are as such:

#1 - Harang
#2 - Incomplete
#3 - Arroyo
#4 - Incomplete
#5 - Belisle

Bailey in the rotation for the year is an unknown at best. You can hope he plays to a #4, but more likely he is a #5, pushing Belisle to #4.

We need, at a minimum, a #3 Starter - which equates to a ~4.5 ERA, and then hope Arroyo can handle being a #2 for a full season.

That's A LOT of IFs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Like it or not, Arroyo is our #2 starter for the time being. Bailey, Vasquez, and Belisle will make up the back end of the rotation. I would have no problem signing a Livan Hernandez to give us 200 innings, and letting Bailey and Cueto get some more experience in the minors. Krivsky would not have traded for Vasquez if he did not expect him to be in the starting rotation.

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 12:54 PM
Like it or not, Arroyo is our #2 starter for the time being. Bailey, Vasquez, and Belisle will make up the back end of the rotation. I would have no problem signing a Livan Hernandez to give us 200 innings, and letting Bailey and Cueto get some more experience in the minors. Krivsky would not have traded for Vasquez if he did not expect him to be in the starting rotation.

Yes, but Arroyo overacheived in 2006, and in 2007 was practically a full run more in ERA. He was very hittable - opp BA was .280. That's not a #2.

Yes, he is by default, but that's not a good thing. Where's the post with the Averages by SP spot - I think it's on the Org by DougDirt - we BARELY meet "Average" at #1 and #2, and Belisle at #4. If you want to COMPETE for the Playoffs you need to be Overacheiving, not at Average.

We'd be best to get a Bedard type and put him at #2, and move Arroyo to #3. Then you can hope to find two solid guys out of Belisle/Vasquez/Bailey to round out the last two spots.

What we are looking at now is hoping EVERYONE not named Harang OVERACHIEVES, which is not a good strategy.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
12-31-2007, 01:05 PM
Yes, but Arroyo overacheived in 2006, and in 2007 was practically a full run more in ERA. He was very hittable - opp BA was .280. That's not a #2.

Yes, he is by default, but that's not a good thing. Where's the post with the Averages by SP spot - I think it's on the Org by DougDirt - we BARELY meet "Average" at #1 and #2, and Belisle at #4. If you want to COMPETE for the Playoffs you need to be Overacheiving, not at Average.

We'd be best to get a Bedard type and put him at #2, and move Arroyo to #3. Then you can hope to find two solid guys out of Belisle/Vasquez/Bailey to round out the last two spots.

What we are looking at now is hoping EVERYONE not named Harang OVERACHIEVES, which is not a good strategy.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Bedard ship has sailed, and Wayne has made it clear he isn't gutting the farm to land Bedard. Any comparable #2 starter would equally cost us too much in top prospects. It is perfectly acceptable to get a #3 in free agency, and wait for Bailey and Cueto to become our #1 and #2 in 2 years time. As for Arroyo, his numbers would look much better with a little more luck and a better bullpen.

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 01:05 PM
For reference, here is dougdirt's post:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64511&highlight=belisle

You'll see that we don't really compete for much more than "Average".

He also shares the sentiment that Arroyo is a strong #3, but a weak #2.

He does believe however - through FIP and other metrics - that Belisle is a #3 candidate. That is where we differ greatly. I would be happy with Belisle at #4 - if Arroyo was my #3. But, if you have Arroyo as your #2, you'd better put Belisle in at #5.

He is also Homer Bailey's biggest fan, and surely thinks he could be a #4 guy, and perhaps that is true. He has certainly helped my process for the Bailey v. Cueto argument/analysis.

Still, to me, it's too many Projections of Overachieving for too many spots, to hope we can actually get to "Above Average" without adding a #2 or #3 FA SP.

If what we have is Harang 1, Arroyo 2, and then 3 ???s from Belisle/Bailey/Vasquez, then I think we are wasting $11M on a closer. We should have got 4 long relievers and more Offense.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 01:10 PM
The Bedard ship has sailed, and Wayne has made it clear he isn't gutting the farm to land Bedard. Any comparable #2 starter would equally cost us too much in top prospects. It is perfectly acceptable to get a #3 in free agency, and wait for Bailey and Cueto to become our #1 and #2 in 2 years time. As for Arroyo, his numbers would look much better with a little more luck and a better bullpen.

The Bedard Ship hasn't sailed yet - unless the O's traded him between 11:00 and 11:07 AM CST. We are still the best trading partner they have.

In 2 years you think Bailey goes to a #1? Cueto hasn't pitched a single game in the Majors, and barely 30 innings or so in AAA, and in 2 years he's a #2 SP?!?! Even if you are right, then you have lost the Window of Harang/Arroyo at their best values.

Arroyo's .280 BAA has nothing to do with luck, unfortunately he will have the same Defense behind him this year as he did last year. Perhaps he benefited from TOO MUCH luck in 2006?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
12-31-2007, 01:25 PM
We would have seen Bedard already traded to the Reds if a trade would have been done. There was a chance we might have traded for him before Krivsky made the trade for Hamilton. It is clear Krivsky did the Hamilton trade in response to the Orioles demands. The Orioles GM has already publicly stated Bedard will be the Opening Day starter. That might simply be a negotiating ploy, but I think he did not receive the offers he expected and so he simply decided to pull back. There really is no way of telling how any of the young starters will develop. They could all turn out to be #5 starters, or they could all be at the top of the rotation. I have already said I favor getting a #3 in free agency, as I believe both Cueto and Bailey will be helped by spending an additional year in AAA.

Newman4
12-31-2007, 01:35 PM
IF WK "gave in", the trade for Bedard would have already happened. The O's have no leverage here. Even Seattle apparently has taken Brandon Morrow off the table. They may get TWO top 10 prospects and that's about all. As far as I'm concerned, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto and Volquez should be untouchable in the Bedard discussion. They're all ML-ready, not just "prospects"

Anyone think that possibly Bedard's reluctance to sign an extension beyond 2009 is holding things up behind closed doors?

Newman4
12-31-2007, 01:38 PM
I have already said I favor getting a #3 in free agency, as I believe both Cueto and Bailey will be helped by spending an additional year in AAA.

I agree completely about Bailey and Cueto starting in AAA. (Bailey needs to get the off-speed stuff more solid). I also agree about getting a #3 from free agency, BUT even with an unlimited payroll, who is out there that would even come close to a #3?

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 01:41 PM
We would have seen Bedard already traded to the Reds if a trade would have been done. There was a chance we might have traded for him before Krivsky made the trade for Hamilton. It is clear Krivsky did the Hamilton trade in response to the Orioles demands. The Orioles GM has already publicly stated Bedard will be the Opening Day starter. That might simply be a negotiating ploy, but I think he did not receive the offers he expected and so he simply decided to pull back..

Definitely. They don't want to keep him as their opening day starter - why? So they can trade him at the trade deadline for LESS than what they can get now? And waste more $$ for a team that is NO WAY going to compete in the AL East?

Not too long ago they were saying they wouldn't talk to the Reds unless Jay Bruce was involved. Then, suddenly he was off the table.

They want to trade Bedard, it's just a matter of time.

They probably didn't want Hamilton anyhow, and we obviously had a desire to get rid of him regardless, so IMO that doesn't make it any worse, in fact it's EASIER now to trade Cueto/Bailey now that we have Vasquez.



There really is no way of telling how any of the young starters will develop. They could all turn out to be #5 starters, or they could all be at the top of the rotation. I have already said I favor getting a #3 in free agency, as I believe both Cueto and Bailey will be helped by spending an additional year in AAA.

How so? IF you think they are going to be #1/#2 starter in two years, you think that's going to be after ONE season in the Majors?!?!?!?

IMO Bailey should get a full year in the Majors, but should start as the #4/#5 guy and hope he moves up. I think the best we can hope for is a 5.00 ERA out of him this year. Cueto would probably be best served in AAA, agreed. However, I think his best value would be in trading for a #2 SP....

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Newman4
12-31-2007, 01:50 PM
I think Bailey hasn't has the success in his K/9 and BB/9 at the ML level due to his lack of refined off-speed pitches. Starting in AAA would give him a chance to work on that particular area.

757690
12-31-2007, 03:06 PM
Yes, but Arroyo overacheived in 2006, and in 2007 was practically a full run more in ERA. He was very hittable - opp BA was .280. That's not a #2.

Yes, he is by default, but that's not a good thing. Where's the post with the Averages by SP spot - I think it's on the Org by DougDirt - we BARELY meet "Average" at #1 and #2, and Belisle at #4. If you want to COMPETE for the Playoffs you need to be Overacheiving, not at Average.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Only three NL teams in the playoffs last two years had #2 pitchers who were significantly better than Arroyo last year, and none of them got past the first round of playoffs. The Reds might not compete next year, but it is not because they need a better #2 pitcher than Arroyo.

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 03:31 PM
Only three NL teams in the playoffs last two years had #2 pitchers who were significantly better than Arroyo last year, and none of them got past the first round of playoffs. The Reds might not compete next year, but it is not because they need a better #2 pitcher than Arroyo.

I was referring to across the board.

We need to have Pitchers who are ABOVE AVERAGE across the board, 1 to 5.

IF we have to have Arroyo at #2, then that is 1 of 5 we are already BELOW Average on.

I would guess the other teams you mentioned were ABOVE Average on 3-5.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BEETTLEBUG
12-31-2007, 08:08 PM
Anything on Cliff Lee's of Cleveland and Reds talk? What would it take to get him?

XU Lou
12-31-2007, 10:15 PM
Anything on Cliff Lee's of Cleveland and Reds talk? What would it take to get him?

I haven't heard anything, I like him because he is a LH but don't know much about his stats (GB/FB, WHIP, etc.) Not as sexy as a Bedard but should cost a heckuva lot less.

Probably another #4-#5 SP. Seems like we have a lot of those

hippie07
01-01-2008, 05:28 AM
I'm really excited that WK is looking for another established starter to throw in the mix - but does anyone else get nervous when they hear WK throw around the word "veteran"... Please not another Stanton, Wayne, please...

***Wild, Crazy Speculation Alert***
The Reds have reportedly expressed interest in Rios and now Wayne's saying he's wanting a veteran starter ... what about Bailey & a couple others for Rios and Burnett and we take on Burnett's awful contract? I know that it would stink to give up Bailey for 1 yr. of a questionable pitcher, but if the Reds trust the abilities of Volquez... then it would really just be equal to a Hamilton for Rios swap w/ AJ Burnett thrown in to help in 08 - and if Burnett performs up to his standards then maybe WK "the contract extension wizard" can rework his deal and sign him to an extension....

Meanwhile we'd essentially swap Hamilton for Rios who would fill alotta voids on the current Reds squad and give us an all-star caliber RH bat.... tempting...

Bip Roberts
01-01-2008, 06:33 AM
Bailey being a solid 4 all year is underachieving if you ask me :)

AmarilloRed
01-01-2008, 01:28 PM
I'm really excited that WK is looking for another established starter to throw in the mix - but does anyone else get nervous when they hear WK throw around the word "veteran"... Please not another Stanton, Wayne, please...

***Wild, Crazy Speculation Alert***
The Reds have reportedly expressed interest in Rios and now Wayne's saying he's wanting a veteran starter ... what about Bailey & a couple others for Rios and Burnett and we take on Burnett's awful contract? I know that it would stink to give up Bailey for 1 yr. of a questionable pitcher, but if the Reds trust the abilities of Volquez... then it would really just be equal to a Hamilton for Rios swap w/ AJ Burnett thrown in to help in 08 - and if Burnett performs up to his standards then maybe WK "the contract extension wizard" can rework his deal and sign him to an extension....

Meanwhile we'd essentially swap Hamilton for Rios who would fill alotta voids on the current Reds squad and give us an all-star caliber RH bat.... tempting...

Interesting idea. We will need some starting outfielders in the future, and Rios seems a good one. A.J. Burnett is the wild card. If he performs on the field in 2008, he most certainly will declare for free agency. I would be interested to see who you would add in addition to Bailey for the Blue Jays to trade both Burnett and Rios.

hippie07
01-01-2008, 02:25 PM
Interesting idea. We will need some starting outfielders in the future, and Rios seems a good one. A.J. Burnett is the wild card. If he performs on the field in 2008, he most certainly will declare for free agency. I would be interested to see who you would add in addition to Bailey for the Blue Jays to trade both Burnett and Rios.

Well, orginally - I was thinking that the other two players wouldn't have to amount to all that much (because we'd be taking on a bad contract), but then I read an article on MLB that the Jays aren't looking to trade Burnett unless they are "wowed by an offer" - the all too familar quote this offseason - but the GM just may be blowing smoke... but I really wouldn't give up too much for Burnett because he's such a ????

So Bailey would basically be for Rios and then we'd have to give something enticing enough to include Burnett.

I'm thinking 2 of our top 25 guys and maybe a 3rd guy somewhere lower in the system. I can't find a list of our top 25 prospects to handpick someone (if someone could send me a link - I'd appreciate it), but I was thinking at least one outfield spec like Stubbs or Dickinson if the Jays wanted one back in return and then maybe a reliever type.

jmac
01-01-2008, 02:43 PM
Well, orginally - I was thinking that the other two players wouldn't have to amount to all that much (because we'd be taking on a bad contract), but then I read an article on MLB that the Jays aren't looking to trade Burnett unless they are "wowed by an offer" - the all too familar quote this offseason - but the GM just may be blowing smoke... but I really wouldn't give up too much for Burnett because he's such a ????

Burnett is too much of a question mark to give up much for.
In fact , I think I would rather take an incentive chance on Colon.
Rios, oh yeah but I just dont see WK trading for someone who doesnt stand on the mound.

Sidd Finch
01-01-2008, 02:48 PM
Considering the Hamilton for Volquez move, I don't see the Reds moving Bailey for Rios.

And I seriously doubt that Toronto would even consider that deal if it were offered to them.

BLEEDS
01-01-2008, 03:33 PM
Considering the Hamilton for Volquez move, I don't see the Reds moving Bailey for Rios.



Good Point.

Question for the Board:
If it was a possible scenario, would you have done a Bailey/Hamilton for Volquez/Rios trade?

I don't think I would have.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
01-01-2008, 03:37 PM
Considering that Rios and Volquez were on 2 different teams, it might be a difficult trade to set up.

*BaseClogger*
01-01-2008, 03:54 PM
I was referring to across the board.

We need to have Pitchers who are ABOVE AVERAGE across the board, 1 to 5.

IF we have to have Arroyo at #2, then that is 1 of 5 we are already BELOW Average on.

I would guess the other teams you mentioned were ABOVE Average on 3-5.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Actually, we could easily compete, and even make the playoffs, with an average rotation. The "shortcomings" of an average rotation could be offset by a strong offense and bullpen. Also, when you consider our park and our defense, the rotation would be much better than average in a vacuum...

Redus
01-01-2008, 08:52 PM
Sign Benson and give Anna a season ticket!

http://gb.cri.cn/mmsource/images/2006/04/27/sx20060427026.jpg

Bip Roberts
01-01-2008, 10:26 PM
that picture has a lot of butter face in it

Redus
01-01-2008, 11:44 PM
that picture has a lot of butter face in it

Face? What face? Theres a shot of her face there somewhere? Hadnt noticed! Cant get past those two huge softball shaped melons!:eek:

Edd Roush
01-02-2008, 02:02 AM
Good Point.

Question for the Board:
If it was a possible scenario, would you have done a Bailey/Hamilton for Volquez/Rios trade?

I don't think I would have.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Yes, I would. Rios helps to balance out the line-up and improves the Reds' ineptness against left-handed hurlers. Furthermore, I see Volquez as Bailey two years in the future. Therefore, Volquez has gotten two more years of instruction without his arm blowing up on him. Both project very similarly with a lot of gas and a solid second pitch.

I really like Josh Hamilton and love his story, but there are just so many question marks surrounding him. There haven't been hardly any cases similar to his in the recent past. How will injuries affect him in the future? No one knows, except for possibly himself and his doctor. I think Rios has a very similar ceiling and again, Rios has three more full years of major league development under his belt. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of this trade.

However, it should be mentioned that all four of these players are very different and three years from now if we revisit this thread, there is a possibility that Hamilton could be an All-Star and every one else is off the face of the baseball map. That being said, I'll take Rios and Volquez over Bailey and Hamilton.

XU Lou
01-02-2008, 09:49 AM
What does Colon's wife look like?

Newman4
01-02-2008, 11:34 AM
What does Colon's wife look like?

I don't know, but check out Big Bart partying with the peeps. :D

http://www.thesportshernia.com/baseball/images/bartoloColon.jpg

Colon looks like Andre the Giant, except he ain't tall. (Probably weighs about the same)

XU Lou
01-02-2008, 11:40 AM
I don't know, but check out Big Bart partying with the peeps. :D

http://www.thesportshernia.com/baseball/images/bartoloColon.jpg

Colon looks like Andre the Giant, except he ain't tall. (Probably weighs about the same)

Looks like my kind of dude! :beerme:

Really, he is my favorite of the FA pitchers with the biggest upside.