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AmarilloRed
12-31-2007, 03:21 PM
Cost to keep Kazmir may grow prohibitive

By EDUARDO A. ENCINA, Times Staff Writer
Published December 30, 2007
Scott Kazmir is coming off his best season, reaching career highs in wins (13), innings pitched (206 2/3) and strikeouts (an AL-high 239).

Even though he is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, there's already talk that Scott Kazmir's days as a Ray are numbered.

Kazmir is coming off his best season, reaching career highs in wins (13), innings pitched (2062/3) and strikeouts (an AL-high 239). Considering the way the Rays monitored his workload, limiting his pitch counts and innings for most of the second half, it's clear they consider Kazmir a big part of their future.

In an age in which finding quality starting pitching is hard and keeping it more difficult, the Rays - who don't comment on contract negotiations - might be wise to go to the bargaining table and work out a long-term deal with Kazmir.

Here's the glitch. The Rays explored the possibility last year, but nothing developed. And Kazmir, who couldn't be reached for comment, doesn't appear to be in a hurry to sign a long-term deal of the likes of Carl Crawford's or Rocco Baldelli's.

The Tigers paid $29-million over three years for left-hander Dontrelle Willis, who has had declining wins and ERAs the past two seasons. But that came only after the Marlins were forced to trade Willis or lose him in free agency.

Would Kazmir be worth more in two years, provided he maintains his progression and stays healthy? If the Rays keep putting better players around him, absolutely. You'd be talking about a 26-year-old left-hander with about 60 wins and 1,000 strikeouts.

What would you be willing to trade for Scott Kazmir?

BLEEDS
12-31-2007, 04:02 PM
Would you trade Bailey and Cueto for this guy?

I'd trade just about everyone not named Jay Bruce for Kaz. To me, he's more valuable than Santana.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Edd Roush
12-31-2007, 04:15 PM
Owning this guy for three years would be really nice. He has the kid of game to succeed in the GAB. 9.73 career Ks per nine with a career 3.64 ERA will play just about any where. I would trade a whole lot more for Kazmir than I would for Bedard. Kazmir broke the 200 inning plateau last year and I really think he would be a solid anchor to the Reds' rotation.

I think I'd give two of the big three pitchers for him and I think the Rays' just might take it. If you do that trade, you don't worry about one of them panning out, because you have already won the lottery with Kazmir.

Harang
Kazmir
Arroyo
Belisle
Volquez/Bailey/FA pickup

That is a playoff rotation.

ChatterRed
12-31-2007, 05:28 PM
I think something will be in the works. I think we traded Hamilton to bolster our prospects to trade for someone like Kazmir.

hippie07
12-31-2007, 05:41 PM
I'd def give up the lessor of Bailey/Volquez and Cueto for him....

what are the rays looking for? Are we a good trade partner?

757690
12-31-2007, 06:25 PM
I would love to pick up Kazmir, but here is why I would not, at least not this year.

I think that odds are that one of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez will be an ace in year or two. The problem is that there is no way of knowing which one, at least not now. Kazmir will cost around 3-4M this year and close to 10M by the time he reaches free agency. He also has pitched a lot of innings for a 23 year old, which is a bit scary, although he has averaged only 6 innings a start.

I would rather wait one year and see where everyone is since the Reds will have more certainty then.

Betterread
12-31-2007, 06:43 PM
I'd try to trade for him - he's a lefty with premier stuff. We have no one in the organization like him. I'd offer Votto and one of Cueto/Bailey/Volquez.

AmarilloRed
12-31-2007, 10:38 PM
The thinking is that because Kazmir is three years from free agency as opposed to one year for Santana, he might bring nearly as much in return.

The Rays need multiple high-end pitchers, and Kazmir, just about to enter arbitration eligibility for the first time, might be too expensive and ready to depart just as Tampa is projecting contention in two to three years.

I copied this from a Joel Sherman article. It would seem to suggest the Reds would need to consider trading both Bailey and Cueto to get Kazmir.

schmidty622
01-01-2008, 07:54 AM
If we can get Kazmir for the likes of Bailey, Cueto and some lesser minor leaguers I would do it in a heartbeat. A pitching staff of:

Harang
Kazmir
Aroyo
Belisle
Volquez

Would put us in the playoff hunt for the next three years, which is plenty of time to replenish the talent that we would have lost out of our minor leagues. Its a no brainier.

Sidd Finch
01-01-2008, 02:01 PM
I like Kazmir as a fit for the Reds much more than Bedard but I can't imagine Tampa Bay moving him for several reasons. I think that franchise has to belly up to the bar and spend the money to sign him.

That said, if I'm Krivsky I would not hesitate to send any two of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez, plus two or three lower-level position player prospects to acquire him.

I would not want to include Votto in that mix, but if that got the deal done instead of more players at lower levels of MLB readiness, I would pull the trigger.

AmarilloRed
01-01-2008, 02:33 PM
I like Kazmir as a fit for the Reds much more than Bedard but I can't imagine Tampa Bay moving him for several reasons. I think that franchise has to belly up to the bar and spend the money to sign him.

That said, if I'm Krivsky I would not hesitate to send any two of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez, plus two or three lower-level position player prospects to acquire him.

I would not want to include Votto in that mix, but if that got the deal done instead of more players at lower levels of MLB readiness, I would pull the trigger.

The Devil Rays are considering trading him because they will not be in contention until 2-3 more years, about the time Kazmir becomes a free agent. It makes a great deal of sense for them to move him at the peak of his value. The Devil Rays actually tried to extend him last year, but were unable to do it.

BEETTLEBUG
01-01-2008, 03:53 PM
Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs and Freel for Kazmir and Crawford.

hippie07
01-01-2008, 04:12 PM
You know, I think its going to be really hard for WK to make any deals where the GM wants to be "blown away" - those GMs are probably going to balk at anything the Reds offer unless it's Jay Bruce ... which is unfair because we have lots of other top-tier prospects ... I don't see why we get immediately barred from the convo if Bruce is untouchable.

I imagine if WK talks to the Rays they'll ask for a minimum of Bruce and Bailey... which is crazy in my IMO.

If we could work the following out though - I'd be very giddy:
- Votto, Cueto, Stubbs, Lecure to Rays for Kazmir
-Bailey + specs = to Jays for Rios

We could play Hatte/Kepp at 1st or Dunn or Rios when Bruce comes up (whichever has the most experience/ better skills there)


Resulting Rotation:
Harang
Kazmir
Arroyo
Volquez
Belisle

Resulting Lineup:
Bruce, CF
Phillips, 2b
Griffey, RF
Rios, LF
Dunn, 1b
Encarnacion, 3b
Gonzalez, SS
Ross, C

*BaseClogger*
01-01-2008, 04:14 PM
Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs and Freel for Kazmir and Crawford.

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

757690
01-01-2008, 04:36 PM
The Rays need pitching and not offense. The only deal they will consider for Kazmir is two out of Bailey/Volquez/Cueto plus some lower level pitching prospects. And he is worth that. I just don't think it would be a smart move for the Reds to trade so much strong young pitching for just one guy. It is very rare that trades like that work out.

Edd Roush
01-02-2008, 01:06 AM
Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs and Freel for Kazmir and Crawford.


Bailey and Cueto are going to be what is going to get the D Rays talking back in a proposal for Kazmir. There is no way that Stubbs and Freel are going to net Crawford and personally I'm not a huge fan of Crawford. He doesn't walk much and has little power, although he does have some speed.

BEETTLEBUG
01-02-2008, 01:35 PM
Ok just Bailey and Cueto for Kazmir and Roco.

Edd Roush
01-02-2008, 02:46 PM
Ok just Bailey and Cueto for Kazmir and Roco.

I'll let them keep Rocco. Rocco OPSed .626 last year, albeit in only 137 at-bats. However, Rocco has never shown a penchant for taking a walk and wouldn't be much of an upgrade in my mind over Hopper or Freel.

I think I'd be fine with Bailey, Cueto and some other minor leaguers for Kazmir. Anything to keep us away from Livan.

TC81190
01-02-2008, 05:19 PM
I'll let them keep Rocco. Rocco OPSed .626 last year, albeit in only 137 at-bats. However, Rocco has never shown a penchant for taking a walk and wouldn't be much of an upgrade in my mind over Hopper or Freel.

I think I'd be fine with Bailey, Cueto and some other minor leaguers for Kazmir. Anything to keep us away from Livan.

But Baldelli actually has, y'know, SOME power.

If I could, I'd trade...

Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Maloney, and Francisco/Stubbs/Valakia etc.

for

Kazmir and Crawford.

We'd be paying out the nose, but for established talent vs. potential.

XU Lou
01-02-2008, 05:28 PM
But Baldelli actually has, y'know, SOME power.

If I could, I'd trade...

Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Maloney, and Francisco/Stubbs/Valakia etc.

for

Kazmir and Crawford.

We'd be paying out the nose, but for established talent vs. potential.

Wow! Talk about mortgaging the future. That doesn't leave much in reserve if you have a pitcher go down.

TC81190
01-02-2008, 05:31 PM
Wow! Talk about mortgaging the future. That doesn't leave much in reserve if you have a pitcher go down.

True, but as the old saying goes, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

I would rather have the (relative) certainty of Kazmir and Crawford's production over what that core of prospects I suggested can potentially produce, in several years at that.

XU Lou
01-02-2008, 05:43 PM
True, but as the old saying goes, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

I would rather have the (relative) certainty of Kazmir and Crawford's production over what that core of prospects I suggested can potentially produce, in several years at that.

I understand the thought process and I agree that worrying about depth can sometimes mean you have a mediocre team but I don't see the payroll sustaining those two big birds.

BEETTLEBUG
01-02-2008, 05:45 PM
NO too much.

TC81190
01-02-2008, 05:50 PM
I understand the thought process and I agree that worrying about depth can sometimes mean you have a mediocre team but I don't see the payroll sustaining those two big birds.

True, but I also didn't think we'd get Cordero either. I think if we got Crawford and Kazmir quality players, Bob C. would gladly take them on the payroll.

Edd Roush
01-02-2008, 11:12 PM
But Baldelli actually has, y'know, SOME power.

If I could, I'd trade...

Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Maloney, and Francisco/Stubbs/Valakia etc.

for

Kazmir and Crawford.

We'd be paying out the nose, but for established talent vs. potential.

I think I'd trade two of our young pitchers away, but no way three. That's way too much. Furthermore, I don't want to deal Votto. From what I remember, Votto and Bruce are very good friends and I can see them being the nucleus for the Reds for a very long time.

I have no desire to land Crawford. Give me Kazmir and that's all I want.

BEETTLEBUG
01-02-2008, 11:53 PM
OK

SMcGavin
01-03-2008, 06:42 PM
I'd do Bailey and Cueto for Kazmir. We had this debate a month or so ago when Kazmir's name was floating around. Honestly I think Kazmir is better than Harang (it's really close though). We'd control the fivesome of Kazmir, Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Volquez for the next three years. That is an excellent rotation. One thing though, if we did this trade, we would have to add some cheap SP insurance because our depth would be depleted.

BEETTLEBUG
01-03-2008, 07:14 PM
How about Tomko and Hendrickson as cheap SP options?

SMcGavin
01-03-2008, 10:40 PM
How about Tomko and Hendrickson as cheap SP options?

Well I think I am the captain of the Tomko bandwagon around here. Hendrickson also looks like he would come cheap and he is pretty decent, I would be cool with him too. Here is an article I saw on Hendrickson:

http://yorkdispatch.inyork.com/yd/sports/ci_7777983

I'd rather sign either of those two than spend big dollars on what is left on the market.

Sean_CaseyRules
01-03-2008, 10:42 PM
I'd rather sign either of those two than spend big dollars on what is left on the market.


Thank you!! I definately feel the EXACT same way! I'm really glad there is someone I can relate to on the SP situation!

Vada Pinson Fan
01-03-2008, 10:42 PM
"Buy Low, Sell High." From the Reds standpoint, using this criteria, Kazmir won't be coming to Cincinnati anytime soon. Kazmir's worth is at an all-time high, even more so than when Tampa Bay traded for him when Kazmir was a NY Met.

I don't break our 'bank' of Stud Minor Leaguers in trading, at this time, for Kazmir or Bedard as nice as it would be to have either one. I think it's in the Reds best interests to watch the kids develop and keep payroll relatively low for the 2008 free agents we may have a (better) chance to sign. Wayne Krivsky did a nice job by not giving into Baltimore's high demands for anyone wanting to trade for Erik Bedard. WK will hopefully employ the same tactics in offers featuring pitchers and players at their peak prices.