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AmarilloRed
01-02-2008, 01:44 PM
A member of ORG has heard on XM 175 that Krivsky will be looking into signing Livan Hernandez for their free agent starter. I have mixed feeling about this. I have repeatedly suggested signing Livan in the past, as I believe he is the best free agent starter remaining out there. However, that isn't saying much. On the plus side, he will give you 200+ innings and quality starts(19 QS last year). He will also give up a lot of hits(240+ the last 3 years), a lot of HR (25,22,34 in NL West stadiums the last 3 years-enough said). I don't suppose a 1 year deal will hurt much, but I would be very careful about giving him multiple years if I were Krivsky.

GoReds33
01-02-2008, 01:49 PM
I guess I would like to see it. He's obdviously nothing flashy. Still, if he can give us 180-200 innings a year out of the five spot, I'll take it.

AdamDunn
01-02-2008, 01:49 PM
I like the idea of a one year deal. He's a solid No. 3 pitcher who will give us a 50% chance to win almost every game out. Not to mention this allows Dusty to overuse one starting pitcher without affecting our future. Dusty never did like going to the bullpen.

Bip Roberts
01-02-2008, 02:01 PM
I would be totally afraid of his HR/9 his declining bb/9 and hes like 65 years old

AmarilloRed
01-02-2008, 02:05 PM
I would be totally afraid of his HR/9 his declining bb/9 and hes like 65 years old

What, you don't believe he will be 33 in February?;)

PickOff
01-02-2008, 02:08 PM
A one year deal would be tolerable, but at what price? Unless Baker can convince him to sign on the cheap, he would probably be too expensive a stop gap. And if he wants more than 1 yr the deal stops making sense.

The Reds need another starter, but Livan's last two years have been scary. Nearly every stat is trending the wrong way. And look at his GB/FB ratios. Jeesh.

I saw him pitch against the Reds in RFK and it was almost funny. He looked like a tired Dave Williams. Not at all the pitcher I remembered. He will be only 33, and might have some years left in him, but I think the Reds could get more value from Kris Benson or Josh Towers.

There is no point in spending alot of coin on someone who will only be marginally better and maybe worse than the in house alternatives.

Look elsewhere or stand pat unless you can get him for half the 7-8 million he made the last 3 years.

BEETTLEBUG
01-02-2008, 02:09 PM
I am for Hernandez for one year and club option for second.

Orenda
01-02-2008, 02:25 PM
The thing that gets me with this rumor is that Cincinnati doesn't seem to be an envious place for Livan Hernandez to end up on a one year deal. He would be better served getting a lesser deal in a more pitcher friendly ballpark with a better defensive team. I would be afraid of WK giving into an additional option year to lure him here (Stanton, Cormier). So while Livan might make sense for Cincinnati on a one year deal it doesn't seem to fit from Livan's perspective. I can't envision him signing for less than a two year deal.

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 02:31 PM
This would be AWESOME!! He is a legit #3 as stated, and would be a HORSE in the Rotation.

19 Quality Starts?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?! I had no idea he had that many.

SIGN HIM NOW!!!

WK would be pulling a major coup being able to keep Cueto (in AAA all of 2008), and then we can live with Homer/Volquez at #5, and not have to consider putting TWO kids in the rotation.

I like this idea.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

rotnoid
01-02-2008, 02:41 PM
19 Quality Starts?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?! I had no idea he had that many.

There's a number I hadn't seen. I can live with that, assuming, of course the price and years are right.

Handofdeath
01-02-2008, 02:45 PM
I wouldn't worry about Hernandez giving up too many homers because Harang and Arroyo each gave up 28 themselves last season. It just goes along with pitching there. I think there is a definite place in the Reds rotation for Hernandez because of what he will give you. He will give you 200 IP, which is extremely important to a Reds bullpen that all too often has been overused. He will give you 10-15 wins and an ERA somewhere between 3.50-5.00. Any team will take that for a #3-5 starter and I would think that is the expectation of the Reds for him. If his numbers are going up in the wrong way, never underestimate what a change of scenery and a new pitching coach can do. Also, never underestimate what a guy with playoff experience can do for a club. An innings eater pitcher who went to the NLCS last season as Arizona's #3 starter in the Reds rotation? The Reds have to do this deal.

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 02:56 PM
There's a number I hadn't seen. I can live with that, assuming, of course the price and years are right.

Yeah, that REALLY surprised me. For all the negatives that get thrown around re: Livan - hits, HR's, etc... - if he's only giving up 3 runs in 6 innnings 60% of the time, we should be fine with him eating up 200+ innings for us in 2008.

If that was his ONLY purpose - to pitch 200 innings of sub 5.00 ERA, even in the #4/5 spot - that would be worth it, just to save our bullpen every 5th day.

He's about the only guy out there WITHOUT injury risks in FA - when you look at Lieber (37), Garcia, Jennings, etc... we could do a LOT Worse.

A one year deal, with club option for 2nd, would be ideal.

Then, you hope Livan is our #4 guy - and one of Belisle/Volquez/Bailey moves into that #3 role, and we can make a serious run.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
01-02-2008, 03:05 PM
What, you don't believe he will be 33 in February?;)

do you?

BearcatShane
01-02-2008, 03:08 PM
1 year. 6 million. Do it.

smoke6
01-02-2008, 03:26 PM
1 year. 6 million. Do it.

If the price is right, we have to pull the trigger. Livan > Eric Milton.:)

hippie07
01-02-2008, 03:27 PM
Adding Livan to the rotation would be nice, but I guess it would mean that we're officially out of the running for Bedard/Kazmir and are content to just be competitive next year and not necessarily "go for the gold". Doesn't It? I guess it's just as likely that a Livan signing could be a precursor to a big trade like this:

If we signed Livan for 1/2 years for our #4, then we could technically have a decent rotation whether or not we make THE trade:

(1) With a trade of Bailey & Cueto for Kazmir, our rotation would definitely be "win now" and still have a young guy w/ #1/2 potential in the mix in Volquez.

Harang
Kazmir
Arroyo
Livan
Winner of Volquez/Belisle

(2) We could not make the trade and hang onto our young ones to bolster the AAA staff and be available for call-ups as needed and hopefully make great contributions by the end of 08 and beyond:

Harang
Arroyo
Livan/Belisle/Bailey/Volquez = battling it out for the #3-5 spots

I guess the purpose of this post is to show that a Livan signing doesn't necessarily tip WK's hand as to his plans for the 08 pitching staff. It could mean we're out of the running for something bigger or it could mean that its a precursor to something bigger taking place. One possible clue is the # of years WK signs him for. If its more than 1yr.... it could mean that he's loooking at him for a longer-term solution as a #4/5 innings eater guy that would provide the Reds w/ his fair share of quality starts while giving the bullpen a rest almost every 5th day... it wouldn't be that bad of an addittion, IMO.

Handofdeath
01-02-2008, 03:36 PM
There's a number I hadn't seen. I can live with that, assuming, of course the price and years are right.

Don't get too excited about the number of quality starts. Eric Milton had 13 in 2005 when he went 8-15 6.47.

hippie07
01-02-2008, 03:46 PM
Don't get too excited about the number of quality starts. Eric Milton had 13 in 2005 when he went 8-15 6.47.

While a quality start isn't a perfect stat - I think it's indicative of a pitcher's ability to pitch well enough to keep his team in the game ... now whether the bullpen or the lack of offense leads to an eventual defeat isn't really the pitcher's fault.

A high ERA, though not a great sign, can be illustrative of several different factors, if a pitcher pitches well enough to keep us in the ballgame 20 times in a season... then, that's pretty good for a #4/5 guy.. IMO

AdamDunn
01-02-2008, 03:47 PM
Adding Livan to the rotation would be nice, but I guess it would mean that we're officially out of the running for Bedard/Kazmir and are content to just be competitive next year and not necessarily "go for the gold". Doesn't It? I guess it's just as likely that a Livan signing could be a precursor to a big trade like this:

If we signed Livan for 1/2 years for our #4, then we could technically have a decent rotation whether or not we make THE trade:

(1) With a trade of Bailey & Cueto for Kazmir, our rotation would definitely be "win now" and still have a young guy w/ #1/2 potential in the mix in Volquez.

Harang
Kazmir
Arroyo
Livan
Winner of Volquez/Belisle

(2) We could not make the trade and hang onto our young ones to bolster the AAA staff and be available for call-ups as needed and hopefully make great contributions by the end of 08 and beyond:

Harang
Arroyo
Livan/Belisle/Bailey/Volquez = battling it out for the #3-5 spots

I guess the purpose of this post is to show that a Livan signing doesn't necessarily tip WK's hand as to his plans for the 08 pitching staff. It could mean we're out of the running for something bigger or it could mean that its a precursor to something bigger taking place. One possible clue is the # of years WK signs him for. If its more than 1yr.... it could mean that he's loooking at him for a longer-term solution as a #4/5 innings eater guy that would provide the Reds w/ his fair share of quality starts while giving the bullpen a rest almost every 5th day... it wouldn't be that bad of an addittion, IMO.

If we get Kazmir and Livan, I don't think that makes us a playoff team. It takes more than SP to win the division. It takes health (problems: Griffey, Freel), bullpen (problem: our bullpen is still below average), and offense. It takes the whole package. Not just SP.

Edd Roush
01-02-2008, 03:51 PM
This would be AWESOME!! He is a legit #3 as stated, and would be a HORSE in the Rotation.

19 Quality Starts?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?! I had no idea he had that many.

SIGN HIM NOW!!!

WK would be pulling a major coup being able to keep Cueto (in AAA all of 2008), and then we can live with Homer/Volquez at #5, and not have to consider putting TWO kids in the rotation.

I like this idea.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I'm usually with you Bleeds, but when your K rate is declining into the sub-4 territory while your BB rate is rising to the level of your K-rate there is a problem. The 19 QS is fairly impressive, but I just can't advocate this signing. I will cheer for him if we get him and I understand he would come in as only a #3 or #4, but there is a chance he could get his head beat in with as many walks as he gives up, the amount of balls hit into play that will fall for hits against this pourous defense and the amount of dingers he gives up. I think he'll be lucky to post a sub 5 ERA next year.

schmidty622
01-02-2008, 03:54 PM
Id do it, it would at least help our youngsters get ready for 09 when they should realistically be able to contribute and the Reds can realistically expect to contend.

Caveman Techie
01-02-2008, 04:01 PM
I would much rather see them spend that money on Bartolo.

Livan Hernandez in GAB is scary. With his k/9 going down, his bb/9 going up and his flyball tendancies it would equal about 30+ Homeruns a year for a guy that has too many baserunners on base that spells disaster.

Now with that said if the Reds do sign him I will hope that he bucks the trend and does well, but the signs aren't good.

Handofdeath
01-02-2008, 04:19 PM
While a quality start isn't a perfect stat - I think it's indicative of a pitcher's ability to pitch well enough to keep his team in the game ... now whether the bullpen or the lack of offense leads to an eventual defeat isn't really the pitcher's fault.

A high ERA, though not a great sign, can be illustrative of several different factors, if a pitcher pitches well enough to keep us in the ballgame 20 times in a season... then, that's pretty good for a #4/5 guy.. IMO

I don't dispute what you are saying at all. My point was/is that you have to look at the whole picture.

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 04:46 PM
I'm usually with you Bleeds, but when your K rate is declining into the sub-4 territory while your BB rate is rising to the level of your K-rate there is a problem. The 19 QS is fairly impressive, but I just can't advocate this signing. I will cheer for him if we get him and I understand he would come in as only a #3 or #4, but there is a chance he could get his head beat in with as many walks as he gives up, the amount of balls hit into play that will fall for hits against this pourous defense and the amount of dingers he gives up. I think he'll be lucky to post a sub 5 ERA next year.

I hear you, and share your concerns, particularly in the areas noted.

However, given that he has a solid track history of 200+ innings, I think he compares Favorably to the other alternatives out there as far as risk is concerned.

ANY pitcher we bring into GABP is going to see their numbers - from the Park and D behind them - increase.

More than likely, he's going to be a #4 or #5 guy in this rotation, so a ~5 ERA would be Great, and the 200+ Innings even MORE beneficial to this club when it comes to the Bottom Line.

I also am of the opinion that this does NOT mean we aren't still looking at a potential Bedard type deal for a #1/#2 SP.
With a solid vet in the mix, we can now more easily package a Bailey/Cueto for better pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
01-02-2008, 04:48 PM
His numbers have been declining for the last 3-4 years, and he could very easily enter Miltonesque territory with the number of HRs. He had 34 in a NL West stadium, and I fully expect him to have more than 40 in GABP. That being said, he could probably be counted on to give you 6+ innings and 3-4 ER a start.

Handofdeath
01-02-2008, 05:01 PM
His numbers have been declining for the last 3-4 years

2005 season 15-10 with a 3.98 ERA. After that season he had knee surgery. Sometimes, it takes a year or two to get over surgeries like that. And again, let's see if the pitching coach could straighten him out. Although, if he duplicated his 2007 numbers for the Reds in 2008 that wouldn't be all bad for what his position in the rotation would be.

*BaseClogger*
01-02-2008, 05:04 PM
I wouldn't worry about Hernandez giving up too many homers because Harang and Arroyo each gave up 28 themselves last season. It just goes along with pitching there. I think there is a definite place in the Reds rotation for Hernandez because of what he will give you. He will give you 200 IP, which is extremely important to a Reds bullpen that all too often has been overused. He will give you 10-15 wins and an ERA somewhere between 3.50-5.00. Any team will take that for a #3-5 starter and I would think that is the expectation of the Reds for him. If his numbers are going up in the wrong way, never underestimate what a change of scenery and a new pitching coach can do. Also, never underestimate what a guy with playoff experience can do for a club. An innings eater pitcher who went to the NLCS last season as Arizona's #3 starter in the Reds rotation? The Reds have to do this deal.

Wouldn't worry about Livan giving up too many home runs? Do you remember Eric Milton? This guy is giving up as many home runs as Harange and Arroyo in the NL WEST!! There is no way this guy gets his ERA under 4.50. I don't think his playoff experience, or the fact that he was the D-Backs #3 in the playoffs (!) is very important. Right now our goal should be just to get to the playoffs, I don't seriously think this team is ready to win a pennant, and Livan Hernandez doesn't change that. Now, after all that ranting, I think it would be an ok signing as long as it is a one-year deal for a reasonable price (a club option would be ok too) because their really isn't any risk involved. I'm just not ready to start running out into streets exclaiming the greatness of Livan Hernandez...

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 05:04 PM
His numbers have been declining for the last 3-4 years, and he could very easily enter Miltonesque territory with the number of HRs. He had 34 in a NL West stadium, and I fully expect him to have more than 40 in GABP.

I'll take that bet.

Arizona's BP is not especially a non-hitters park by the way... he also pitches in Coors and against Barry Bonds quite a bit. He also pitched against the Yankees (who did 3HR's in one game, not a rarity for the Yanks)


That being said, he could probably be counted on to give you 6+ innings and 3-4 ER a start.

This part is what makes him worth every penny, IMO.
This affords us the luxury of saving the young guys from pitching every 5th day, and letting us keep Cueto in AAA for the entire year - unless we want to pull him up late to pitch from the Pen for injury/playoff push (a la Joba Chamberlain) if warranted.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
01-02-2008, 05:05 PM
And again, let's see if the pitching coach could straighten him out.

Yeah!! Dick Pole will straighten him out!! :rolleyes:

*BaseClogger*
01-02-2008, 05:12 PM
I'll take that bet.

Arizona's BP is not especially a non-hitters park by the way... he also pitches in Coors and against Barry Bonds quite a bit. He also pitched against the Yankees (who did 3HR's in one game, not a rarity for the Yanks)

He gave up 15 HR's at home and 19 on the road. Colorado accounted for 0 of his 34 HR's surrendered. Barry Bonds accounted for 1 of those HR's...

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 05:13 PM
He gave up 15 HR's at home and 19 on the road. Colorado accounted for 0 of his 34 HR's surrendered. Barry Bonds accounted for 1 of those HR's...

So, you want in on the 40 HR bet?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
01-02-2008, 05:14 PM
So, you want in on the 40 HR bet?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

If this guy throws 200 innings in Cincy, then yes, I want in on that bet...

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 05:23 PM
If this guy throws 200 innings in Cincy, then yes, I want in on that bet...

Well, it would probably be 100 innings in Cincy, 100 away... :)


See, now we HAVE to sign him, so I can make me some wagers!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
01-02-2008, 05:29 PM
Well, it would probably be 100 innings in Cincy, 100 away... :)


See, now we HAVE to sign him, so I can make me some wagers!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nah, I only want the bet if we start him exlusively at home for 200 innings :)

757690
01-02-2008, 06:07 PM
The comparisons to Milton are a little unfair. Milton has always been a flyball pitcher, and always gave up a ton of homers. Hernandez was a groundball pitcher until last year.

Milton gave up most his homers on fastballs, which was his main pitch. Hernandez gives up most of his on his curveball, which is a secondary pitch for him, and one that he is more careful with when runners on base.

I do think that Hernandez will give up quite a few homers, maybe even forty, but most will be solo shots. The thing about Livan is, he knows how to pitch, and can adjust to whatever situation he is in. Milton never was that smart of a pitcher, and never could adjust.

I think that Livan is an okay #4 or 5, who will give 200+ innings, an ERA around 5, and keep the team in the game in most of his starts. Definitely worth a one year contract.

BLEEDS
01-02-2008, 06:09 PM
I do think that Hernandez will give up quite a few homers, maybe even forty, but most will be solo shots. The thing about Livan is, he knows how to pitch, and can adjust to whatever situation he is in. Milton never was that smart of a pitcher, and never could adjust.

I think that Livan is an okay #4 or 5, who will give 200+ innings, an ERA around 5, and keep the team in the game in most of his starts. Definitely worth a one year contract.

Agree 100%, especially the bolded. He is a saavy veteran. Harang gives up almost 30 HR's a year, but usually are solo jobs too.

We could do A LOT worse in FA than Livan.

One year + option.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

PickOff
01-02-2008, 06:15 PM
Agree 100%, especially the bolded. He is a saavy veteran. Harang gives up almost 30 HR's a year, but usually are solo jobs too.

We could do A LOT worse in FA than Livan.

One year + option.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Just know that this is what the Reds are getting with Livan.

An excerpt from this article on the 2007 playoffs.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/print/mlb/story/10408890

"His first career postseason homer broke a 1-1 tie off Arizona starter Livan Hernandez, who cannot be the same Livan Hernandez who struck out 15 Atlanta Braves in the 1997 NLCS. That Hernandez had nasty stuff. This Hernandez has ... stuff. Bad stuff. Slow stuff. This Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA this season, and it's a wonder he won 11 games.

Hernandez threw such slop that the Coors Field radar gun occasionally refused to acknowledge it. I'm serious. A handful of his pitches floated under the radar gun's minimum reading, though other radar guns available on the Internet -- how that's possible, I have no idea -- clocked Hernandez's off-speed stuff at 58 mph.

Still, the slop worked better than the so-called fastballs Hernandez tried to sneak past the Rockies. It was a fastball -- a hanging 82-mph fastball -- that Torrealba smashed 402 feet to give the Rockies a 4-1 lead. How slow is 82 mph? Torrealba, who caught Hernandez in 2002 with the Giants, said he was looking for an off-speed pitch away, yet still was able to adjust to inside fastball.

Other Hernandez heaters met similar fates. Matt Holliday homered in the first, and Torrealba and Todd Helton just missed homers in the third and fourth. Torrealba's drive in the third hit high off the wall in center, fooling the Coors Field stadium staff into launching the fireworks typically reserved for home runs. Helton crushed one off the wall in right, hitting it so hard that he had to stop at first. Both hits led off innings, yet neither batter was able to score. That's what Hernandez does. He gives up baserunners, and then he finds a way to strand most of them.

Hernandez was close to doing it again in the sixth when he struck out Troy Tulowitzki, who hit .291 with 24 home runs and 99 RBI this season. That was the second out, bringing up the relatively tame Torrealba, a career .251 hitter who has never hit more than eight home runs in any of his 13 professional seasons. Even with his earlier blast off the wall, Torrealba's home run was a shocking sight -- almost as shocking as the squatty little TV cameraman in the yellow rain slicker who was literally chasing Torrealba around the bases, filming every step of the unexpected blast."


He certainly will keep things interesting. Danny Graves interesting.

mlbfan30
01-02-2008, 06:15 PM
This isn't bad only if it's a 1 year deal. If Livan pitches better than expected, posting lower than a 4.50 ERA around the all-star break, it would be a great idea to trade him. Assuming a rotation of....

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Livan
Volquez/Bailey/Cueto/Maloney

... by this time 1 the last 3 should be ready for the rotation and produce similar numbers to Livan. Livan would be traded, where his trade value is at his highest. Lohse netted Maloney last year, having a 4.58 ERA with a record of 6-12. Livan had a 4.59 ERA with a 6-6 record at the same time.

Think of Livan as another Lohse. Their peripherals might look different, but the bottom line is that they get the same results. Loshe is more likely to give up the big innings while dominating at other times. Livan is likely to get in trouble more often and spread out the hits better. Also comparing these two to Belisle, it looks like Belisle is less prone to the bigger innings, until it reaches the 6th and especially 7th inning.
Another interesting thing is that Livan is horrible with 0 and 1 outs, but gets very good with 2 outs. Belisle is very good with 0 and 1 outs, but gets worse with 2 outs.

Livans pitching style worries me. He does his worst with 0 and 1 outs, and is a guy who needs to get out of many jams. Because of this, and the GABP, it makes me think he'll give up many multi-run HRs. A positive thing about him is that because he will finish his innings strong, this should prevent Baker from using his reliever in the middle of an inning. Livan didn't pitch though a full inning 5x all year. (He was taken out by the manager before he reached 3 outs). Compare that to.....

16x for Lohse
11x for Belisle
11x for Harang
15x for Arroyo
(5x for Livan)

You can see here why Livan is thought of as a guy who will save the bullpen. He will prevent the bad bullpen from coming in with runners on base. This makes sure the manager doesn't use one of the better RP for 1 or maybe 2 outs instead of a full inning.

Also because of this trait, it would be better for him to be in the 4th spot, between Belisle who has trouble going deep, and the 5th spot. Livan would be a good signing overall if its 1 year. If he does well he will have a lot of trade value and can be traded. If he doesn't do well, there is still Volquez/Bailey/Cueto/Maloney as a backup. He's well worth the added depth and the added relief for the pen, even if his ERA is high.

Handofdeath
01-02-2008, 06:50 PM
I think he got overused and just wore out in 2007. Some of those pitch counts were absolutely horrible. He had thrown well over 300 pitches by April 15.

terminator
01-02-2008, 07:01 PM
I think all of the "sign him for one cheap year" talk is moot. He's coming off a three year deal, he's one of the best options on FA pitching market, his durability is proven and his stats are quite respectable. Also, assuming he's really 33 at the start of the season, he's not that old in light of all of these 40+ pitchers out there. I don't think there's any chance he goes for a one or two year deal. And I don't think there's any chance he goes for less money than his last deal (3 yrs, $21MM).

And so, I hope the Reds don't sign him because I think he will be expensive for 3+ years of mediocrity.

mlbfan30
01-02-2008, 07:03 PM
Some pitchers are just able to throw many pitches and get "abused" by the manager. Here is Livans rank in the ML each year in Total Pitcher Abuse Points.....

1998 - 1
1999 - 2
2000 - 2
2001 - 3
2002 - 2
2003 - 3
2004 - 1
2005 - 1
2006 - 1
2007 - 7

So in fact Livan was abused the least last year. He just has one of those arms that's able to pitch through games. He actually does better when he pitches pitch 100+ than 75-100.
He has pitched 30+ games for 10 straight seasons, and 200 IP in 9 of them (199.666 in the other). You shouldn't be worried about him breaking down or pitching too much since he has no history of it affecting him.

Newman4
01-03-2008, 01:56 AM
Think about the Quality Starts stat relative to Livan. He averaged over 6 IP per start, so thus most games in which he pitched well would almost certainly qualify as a "Quality Start." He started 33 games last season (19 QS), thus there are 14 games which were NOT a QS. Some of which that were pretty ugly. In fact, nearly every game he doesn't go 6 IP is ugly.

Date IP H R ER HR BB K
Sep 26 @ PIT L 1-5 L 4.0 10 4 4 1 3 3
Sep 5 SDG W 9-6W 5.0 7 5 5 1 2 1
Jul 29 ATL L 0-14 L 4.0 8 8 8 1 3 0
Jul 19 @ MIL L 1-10 L 5.1 8 6 5 1 5 3
Jun 23 BAL W 7-4 - 4.0 9 4 4 1 4 3
Jun 13 @ NYY L 2-7 L 4.0 9 7 7 3 5 1
May 12 @HOU L4-10 L 4.0 11 8 8 2 1 3
Apr 19 @ SDG L 6-11 L 5.0 8 7 7 0 5 2

This is 8 of the 14 Non-QS for Livan. Has the potential Livan signing been documented by any other sources other than XM?

AmarilloRed
01-03-2008, 02:00 AM
I would like it if we could only sign him to a 1 year deal, but I fully expect him to sign for a 2-3 year deal. It would seem logical that he would give up more than the 34 HRs he surrendered last year, since GABP is a smaller ballpark. He does give up a lot of hits, and I am worried some of those HRs will come after those hits. You can count on him to give you innings, and he will also keep you in games. I would not expect to sign him for cheaper than 7 million a year. The Reds will have to make the decision on whether it would be better to sign Hernandez, or allow the young pitchers to take their lumps this season.

AmarilloRed
01-03-2008, 02:02 AM
This is 8 of the 14 Non-QS for Livan. Has the potential Livan signing been documented by any other sources other than XM?[/QUOTE]

As far as I know, it has only been mentioned on XM 175.

757690
01-03-2008, 02:31 AM
Think about the Quality Starts stat relative to Livan. He averaged over 6 IP per start, so thus most games in which he pitched well would almost certainly qualify as a "Quality Start." He started 33 games last season (19 QS), thus there are 14 games which were NOT a QS. Some of which that were pretty ugly. In fact, nearly every game he doesn't go 6 IP is ugly.

Date IP H R ER HR BB K
Sep 26 @ PIT L 1-5 L 4.0 10 4 4 1 3 3
Sep 5 SDG W 9-6W 5.0 7 5 5 1 2 1
Jul 29 ATL L 0-14 L 4.0 8 8 8 1 3 0
Jul 19 @ MIL L 1-10 L 5.1 8 6 5 1 5 3
Jun 23 BAL W 7-4 - 4.0 9 4 4 1 4 3
Jun 13 @ NYY L 2-7 L 4.0 9 7 7 3 5 1
May 12 @HOU L4-10 L 4.0 11 8 8 2 1 3
Apr 19 @ SDG L 6-11 L 5.0 8 7 7 0 5 2

This is 8 of the 14 Non-QS for Livan. Has the potential Livan signing been documented by any other sources other than XM?

We are talking about a #4 or 5 pitcher. Even some #1's like Harang and Webb had around 8 "ugly" outings last year.

Last year the Reds #4 and #5 spots in the rotation had combined 31 "ugly" outings similar to the ones listed for Livan, and 49 non quality starts. That would be 15 "ugly" starts and 24 non quality starts per spot. If Livan can give the Reds only 14 non-quality starts, and only 8 "ugly" starts in one season, that will be a huge improvement over last year.

mlbfan30
01-03-2008, 04:24 AM
Livans ERA in.....

Wins - 3.12 (11 starts)
No Decisions - 3.25 (11 starts)
Losses - 9.42 (11 starts)

So basically you can expect Livan to keep the Reds in the game for 66.67% of his starts, which isn't that bad for a #4.

BLEEDS
01-03-2008, 12:03 PM
Livans ERA in.....

Wins - 3.12 (11 starts)
No Decisions - 3.25 (11 starts)
Losses - 9.42 (11 starts)

So basically you can expect Livan to keep the Reds in the game for 66.67% of his starts, which isn't that bad for a #4.

That would be pretty freakin' good for a #3 SP, let alone a #4.

Sure guys get beat around every now and then and give up 4 ER's in <5/6 innings, it happens, then you go to the bullpen, and hope your offense scores more that day.

I like him more as an innings eater and guy you know you can give the ball to every 5th day - even if we were only "IN" 1/2 of his games...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Newman4
01-03-2008, 01:33 PM
If Livan can give the Reds only 14 non-quality starts, and only 8 "ugly" starts in one season, that will be a huge improvement over last year.

The sad thing is you're absolutely right. The Reds 4/5 starters were dreadful. :thumbup:

SMcGavin
01-03-2008, 07:33 PM
Please WK, stay away from Livan. Last year, xFIP 5.62. The year before, 5.40. He had 90 K and 79 BB last season. The 34 HR in 204 IP has already been brought up by others. Basically, this was Livan Hernandez last season: can't strike anyone out, average at best control, gives up a lot of homers.

I would so much rather just roll with Volquez and Bailey. Heck I would rather go sign Tomko. The past two years Hernandez has been awful, regardless of what his ERAs say. Is it possible he reverts back to his old form, sure. I just wouldn't count on it after all the innings he's thrown. And if we are getting the Hernandez from 2007, I wouldn't be suprised at all to see an ERA around 6.

jmac
01-03-2008, 10:39 PM
Livans ERA in.....

Wins - 3.12 (11 starts)
No Decisions - 3.25 (11 starts)
Losses - 9.42 (11 starts)

So basically you can expect Livan to keep the Reds in the game for 66.67% of his starts, which isn't that bad for a #4.
Not bad stats but I think he will probably be given a 2-3 year deal which if so, I would not be a fan of.
As I have stated before, I would prefer an incentive deal for Colon and see what happens.

757690
01-03-2008, 10:53 PM
Please WK, stay away from Livan. Last year, xFIP 5.62. The year before, 5.40. He had 90 K and 79 BB last season. The 34 HR in 204 IP has already been brought up by others. Basically, this was Livan Hernandez last season: can't strike anyone out, average at best control, gives up a lot of homers.

I would so much rather just roll with Volquez and Bailey. Heck I would rather go sign Tomko. The past two years Hernandez has been awful, regardless of what his ERAs say. Is it possible he reverts back to his old form, sure. I just wouldn't count on it after all the innings he's thrown. And if we are getting the Hernandez from 2007, I wouldn't be suprised at all to see an ERA around 6.


I really don't pay too much attention to xFIP. Here is why.

This from Baseball Times in 2005.

Here is a list of pitchers most likely to improve according to xFIP.

Brown K. NYA 24.0 8.25 3.80 4.45
Wright J. NYA 19.7 9.15 5.10 4.05
Lilly T. TOR 24.3 7.77 4.29 3.47
Anderson B. KC 28.7 6.91 4.01 2.90
Elarton S. CLE 25.0 7.20 4.50 2.70
Bell R. TB 25.0 8.28 5.63 2.65
Backe B. HOU 35.7 6.81 4.22 2.60
Kennedy J. COL 33.3 7.56 5.05 2.51
Lohse K. MIN 21.7 6.65 4.15 2.49
Harper T. TB 18.7 6.27 3.82 2.45
Wood K. CHN 26.3 6.15 3.78 2.38
Wilson P. CIN 36.0 7.25 5.11 2.14
Vazquez J. ARI 44.0 4.70 2.71 2.00


And here is a list of pitchers most likely to decline according to xFIP:

Blanton J. OAK 30.3 2.67 5.39 -2.72
Garland J. CHA 39.0 1.38 4.01 -2.63
Chacon S. COL 22.0 3.27 5.87 -2.60
Rogers K. TEX 38.3 2.11 4.60 -2.48
Moehler B. FLA 24.7 2.19 4.40 -2.21
Hampton M. ATL 43.7 2.47 4.62 -2.15
Patterson J. WAS 33.7 1.60 3.71 -2.11
Sabathia C. CLE 24.0 2.63 4.62 -2.00
Contreras J. CHA 34.7 2.60 4.54 -1.94
Seo J. NYN 18.0 2.00 3.93 -1.93
Santos V. MIL 34.3 2.88 4.79 -1.90
Robertson N. DET 28.0 4.18 6.08 -1.90


Yep, that xFIP did a great job. Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Paul Wilson, Rob Bell, Kyle Lohse, they all were CY Young candidates, right? I'll give you Ted Lilly, so it was right 10% of the time. But other stats showed the same thing.

And Joe Blanton, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland, and Kenny Rogers have shown how "awful" they really are. It was right about Seo, Santos, Chacon, and Moehler, but again, you didn't need xFIP to tell you that they were going to decline.


You might be right that Tomko would be better, but I do think that it would be nice to have someone to eat up innings in the first half of the season to take the pressure off the young ones.

Bip Roberts
01-03-2008, 10:53 PM
id rather have our young guys getting innings

Redsnake
01-03-2008, 10:56 PM
Wayne please stand pat. Say no too upgrades on this team. I want too see the Sherns, Livingstons and Durmtraits make spot starts all year. Livan would give some stability to this rotation.....I won't stand for that!!!!
Mark my words Wayne, if you make this move I will watch more Reds games and drive 100 miles south too watch even more games now. And no one wants that!!!! :D

*BaseClogger*
01-03-2008, 11:03 PM
I really don't pay too much attention to xFIP. Here is why.

This from Baseball Times in 2005.

Here is a list of pitchers most likely to improve according to xFIP.

Brown K. NYA 24.0 8.25 3.80 4.45
Wright J. NYA 19.7 9.15 5.10 4.05
Lilly T. TOR 24.3 7.77 4.29 3.47
Anderson B. KC 28.7 6.91 4.01 2.90
Elarton S. CLE 25.0 7.20 4.50 2.70
Bell R. TB 25.0 8.28 5.63 2.65
Backe B. HOU 35.7 6.81 4.22 2.60
Kennedy J. COL 33.3 7.56 5.05 2.51
Lohse K. MIN 21.7 6.65 4.15 2.49
Harper T. TB 18.7 6.27 3.82 2.45
Wood K. CHN 26.3 6.15 3.78 2.38
Wilson P. CIN 36.0 7.25 5.11 2.14
Vazquez J. ARI 44.0 4.70 2.71 2.00


And here is a list of pitchers most likely to decline according to xFIP:

Blanton J. OAK 30.3 2.67 5.39 -2.72
Garland J. CHA 39.0 1.38 4.01 -2.63
Chacon S. COL 22.0 3.27 5.87 -2.60
Rogers K. TEX 38.3 2.11 4.60 -2.48
Moehler B. FLA 24.7 2.19 4.40 -2.21
Hampton M. ATL 43.7 2.47 4.62 -2.15
Patterson J. WAS 33.7 1.60 3.71 -2.11
Sabathia C. CLE 24.0 2.63 4.62 -2.00
Contreras J. CHA 34.7 2.60 4.54 -1.94
Seo J. NYN 18.0 2.00 3.93 -1.93
Santos V. MIL 34.3 2.88 4.79 -1.90
Robertson N. DET 28.0 4.18 6.08 -1.90


Yep, that xFIP did a great job. Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Paul Wilson, Rob Bell, Kyle Lohse, they all were CY Young candidates, right? I'll give you Ted Lilly, so it was right 10% of the time. But other stats showed the same thing.

And Joe Blanton, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland, and Kenny Rogers have shown how "awful" they really are. It was right about Seo, Santos, Chacon, and Moehler, but again, you didn't need xFIP to tell you that they were going to decline.


You might be right that Tomko would be better, but I do think that it would be nice to have someone to eat up innings in the first half of the season to take the pressure off the young ones.

You've made this arguement a couple of times now. A major flaw I see in your theory is that noone was saying those guys were going to improve because of their xFIP, just that they were unlucky and pitched better than their ERA indicated. IF they pitched the same xFIP again the next season, their ERA would have likely improved because their luck would have regressed to the mean. The next season I'm sure their xFIP agreed that they were bad pitchers...

SMcGavin
01-03-2008, 11:32 PM
I really don't pay too much attention to xFIP. Here is why.

This from Baseball Times in 2005.

Here is a list of pitchers most likely to improve according to xFIP.

Brown K. NYA 24.0 8.25 3.80 4.45
Wright J. NYA 19.7 9.15 5.10 4.05
Lilly T. TOR 24.3 7.77 4.29 3.47
Anderson B. KC 28.7 6.91 4.01 2.90
Elarton S. CLE 25.0 7.20 4.50 2.70
Bell R. TB 25.0 8.28 5.63 2.65
Backe B. HOU 35.7 6.81 4.22 2.60
Kennedy J. COL 33.3 7.56 5.05 2.51
Lohse K. MIN 21.7 6.65 4.15 2.49
Harper T. TB 18.7 6.27 3.82 2.45
Wood K. CHN 26.3 6.15 3.78 2.38
Wilson P. CIN 36.0 7.25 5.11 2.14
Vazquez J. ARI 44.0 4.70 2.71 2.00


And here is a list of pitchers most likely to decline according to xFIP:

Blanton J. OAK 30.3 2.67 5.39 -2.72
Garland J. CHA 39.0 1.38 4.01 -2.63
Chacon S. COL 22.0 3.27 5.87 -2.60
Rogers K. TEX 38.3 2.11 4.60 -2.48
Moehler B. FLA 24.7 2.19 4.40 -2.21
Hampton M. ATL 43.7 2.47 4.62 -2.15
Patterson J. WAS 33.7 1.60 3.71 -2.11
Sabathia C. CLE 24.0 2.63 4.62 -2.00
Contreras J. CHA 34.7 2.60 4.54 -1.94
Seo J. NYN 18.0 2.00 3.93 -1.93
Santos V. MIL 34.3 2.88 4.79 -1.90
Robertson N. DET 28.0 4.18 6.08 -1.90


Yep, that xFIP did a great job. Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Paul Wilson, Rob Bell, Kyle Lohse, they all were CY Young candidates, right? I'll give you Ted Lilly, so it was right 10% of the time. But other stats showed the same thing.

And Joe Blanton, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland, and Kenny Rogers have shown how "awful" they really are. It was right about Seo, Santos, Chacon, and Moehler, but again, you didn't need xFIP to tell you that they were going to decline.


You might be right that Tomko would be better, but I do think that it would be nice to have someone to eat up innings in the first half of the season to take the pressure off the young ones.


First of all I have no idea why you are quoting that article. It is from May of 2005, identifying pitchers who are likely to improve/decline over the course of the 2005 season as compared to the ERA they posted over their first 4 or 5 starts that season. I'm not gonna go through and check but I'd bet at least 80% of those changed as predicted. It is not a list of guys who are supposed to be good or bad. xFIP was not saying Paul Wilson was a "Cy Young candidate" as you say, it was saying Paul Wilson was pitching better than the 7.25 ERA he had after 36 IP in 2005.

Secondly, you don't have to believe in xFIP, there are a ton of other numbers that say Livan Hernandez is a bad idea. K/9, BB/9, HR/9, actually pretty much anything other than ERA tells us he is a bad pitcher.

757690
01-04-2008, 01:29 AM
First of all I have no idea why you are quoting that article. It is from May of 2005, identifying pitchers who are likely to improve/decline over the course of the 2005 season as compared to the ERA they posted over their first 4 or 5 starts that season. I'm not gonna go through and check but I'd bet at least 80% of those changed as predicted. It is not a list of guys who are supposed to be good or bad. xFIP was not saying Paul Wilson was a "Cy Young candidate" as you say, it was saying Paul Wilson was pitching better than the 7.25 ERA he had after 36 IP in 2005.

Secondly, you don't have to believe in xFIP, there are a ton of other numbers that say Livan Hernandez is a bad idea. K/9, BB/9, HR/9, actually pretty much anything other than ERA tells us he is a bad pitcher.

For the first part about the chart. You and baseclogger are correct. I will get back to you on how effective xFIP is, there is too much to discuss in a thread about Livan Hernandez.

For the second part, yes, you are correct that there are plenty of stats that do not speak well of Hernandez. However, there are plenty that do speak well of him. The key is finding the important ones.

For me, the two most important questions for a back of the rotation starter is, does he provide innings, and does he keep his team in the game. MLBfan30 provided this very informative stat.

"Wins - 3.12 (11 starts)
No Decisions - 3.25 (11 starts)
Losses - 9.42 (11 starts)

So basically you can expect Livan to keep the Reds in the game for 66.67% of his starts, which isn't that bad for a #4."

and this stat

"Some pitchers are just able to throw many pitches and get "abused" by the manager. Here is Livans rank in the ML each year in Total Pitcher Abuse Points.....

1998 - 1
1999 - 2
2000 - 2
2001 - 3
2002 - 2
2003 - 3
2004 - 1
2005 - 1
2006 - 1
2007 - 7

So in fact Livan was abused the least last year. He just has one of those arms that's able to pitch through games. He actually does better when he pitches pitch 100+ than 75-100.
He has pitched 30+ games for 10 straight seasons, and 200 IP in 9 of them (199.666 in the other). You shouldn't be worried about him breaking down or pitching too much since he has no history of it affecting him."


No one is saying that Livan is a good pitcher anymore, just that he fits what the Reds need in the back of their rotation, an innings eater who keeps his team in the game more often than not.

terminator
01-04-2008, 12:29 PM
He just has one of those arms that's able to pitch through games. He actually does better when he pitches pitch 100+ than 75-100.
I would think that would be the case with all pitchers. The only way you throw 100+ is if you have a good game going. Most of the time if you get pulled between 75 and 100 pitches you are having a bad game.

I don't think Livan is a good option b/c of the contract and money. His last contract was 3 years, $21MM and I don't think his last three years decreased his value . . . especially in a weak FA SP market. He'll get more than he did last time IMHO.

SMcGavin
01-04-2008, 03:02 PM
For the first part about the chart. You and baseclogger are correct. I will get back to you on how effective xFIP is, there is too much to discuss in a thread about Livan Hernandez.

For the second part, yes, you are correct that there are plenty of stats that do not speak well of Hernandez. However, there are plenty that do speak well of him. The key is finding the important ones.

For me, the two most important questions for a back of the rotation starter is, does he provide innings, and does he keep his team in the game. MLBfan30 provided this very informative stat.

"Wins - 3.12 (11 starts)
No Decisions - 3.25 (11 starts)
Losses - 9.42 (11 starts)

So basically you can expect Livan to keep the Reds in the game for 66.67% of his starts, which isn't that bad for a #4."

and this stat

"Some pitchers are just able to throw many pitches and get "abused" by the manager. Here is Livans rank in the ML each year in Total Pitcher Abuse Points.....

1998 - 1
1999 - 2
2000 - 2
2001 - 3
2002 - 2
2003 - 3
2004 - 1
2005 - 1
2006 - 1
2007 - 7

So in fact Livan was abused the least last year. He just has one of those arms that's able to pitch through games. He actually does better when he pitches pitch 100+ than 75-100.
He has pitched 30+ games for 10 straight seasons, and 200 IP in 9 of them (199.666 in the other). You shouldn't be worried about him breaking down or pitching too much since he has no history of it affecting him."


No one is saying that Livan is a good pitcher anymore, just that he fits what the Reds need in the back of their rotation, an innings eater who keeps his team in the game more often than not.

Livan throws a lot of innings, but to me that is really his only good point. Whether he would keep the Reds in the game more often than not is clearly debatable. Going 6 innings and giving up 4 runs is really bad, and that's around the average start I'd expect from Hernandez. IMO, I'd only sign Hernandez if I thought the Reds couldn't win this year and I wanted an arm to eat innings so the kid pitchers didn't have to throw too many. Even then, if we want a bad pitcher to eat some innings, why spend over $5M on him when there are cheaper alternatives?

757690
01-04-2008, 04:13 PM
Livan throws a lot of innings, but to me that is really his only good point. Whether he would keep the Reds in the game more often than not is clearly debatable. Going 6 innings and giving up 4 runs is really bad, and that's around the average start I'd expect from Hernandez. IMO, I'd only sign Hernandez if I thought the Reds couldn't win this year and I wanted an arm to eat innings so the kid pitchers didn't have to throw too many. Even then, if we want a bad pitcher to eat some innings, why spend over $5M on him when there are cheaper alternatives?

First off, if the Reds #4 and 5 starting pitchers pitch 6 innings and give up 4 runs every time in 08, that would be better than what the #4 and 5 pitchers did in 07.

Second, that isn't what Livan did last year. He was much better than that. In 17 starts last year, he went at least 6 innings (7, 8 or 9 fifteen times) and gave up 3 or less runs. The Reds #4 and 5 pitchers last year did that a combined 21 times last year, and most of those were of the 6 inning 3 run type.

You can argue that Tomko or Jennings or the young guns are better, but it just doesn't mesh with the facts to argue that adding Livan doesn't make the Reds better than they were last year.

Let me make another argument. In order to compete you need depth in the rotation. The Reds learned that the hard way last year. On average, a team uses at least 8 different starting pitchers during the year. Last year, the Reds used 10.

Right now the Reds only have 6 pitchers with any starting experience at all on the Roster, and that includes Livingston who will start the season on the DL. Add Cueto and Maloney and Shearn, and you have 9. That means that there is a good chance that the Reds will have to use options similar to Saarloos, E. Rameriz, and Dumatrait next year (12 games with a whopping 12.17 ERA).

If they add Livan, and he pitches 200 innings, that means the Reds will not need to pitch guys like that next year, which will help them compete greatly. Even if he has a 6 ERA, he improves the team.

*BaseClogger*
01-04-2008, 04:20 PM
Sure, if he puts up a 6 ERA he will help the team, and he is a safe bet to do that. But why not shoot higher?

SMcGavin
01-04-2008, 08:12 PM
First off, if the Reds #4 and 5 starting pitchers pitch 6 innings and give up 4 runs every time in 08, that would be better than what the #4 and 5 pitchers did in 07.

Second, that isn't what Livan did last year. He was much better than that. In 17 starts last year, he went at least 6 innings (7, 8 or 9 fifteen times) and gave up 3 or less runs. The Reds #4 and 5 pitchers last year did that a combined 21 times last year, and most of those were of the 6 inning 3 run type.

You can argue that Tomko or Jennings or the young guns are better, but it just doesn't mesh with the facts to argue that adding Livan doesn't make the Reds better than they were last year.

Let me make another argument. In order to compete you need depth in the rotation. The Reds learned that the hard way last year. On average, a team uses at least 8 different starting pitchers during the year. Last year, the Reds used 10.

Right now the Reds only have 6 pitchers with any starting experience at all on the Roster, and that includes Livingston who will start the season on the DL. Add Cueto and Maloney and Shearn, and you have 9. That means that there is a good chance that the Reds will have to use options similar to Saarloos, E. Rameriz, and Dumatrait next year (12 games with a whopping 12.17 ERA).

If they add Livan, and he pitches 200 innings, that means the Reds will not need to pitch guys like that next year, which will help them compete greatly. Even if he has a 6 ERA, he improves the team.

Right, our #5 slot last season was a disaster. You get no disagreement from me on that. My argument is that there are other guys who will improve us more than Livan. Our starting rotation is also in a different position than last year. So the argument isn't really if Hernandez is better than the guys we had in the 5 spot last year, it's if he is better than the guy we will have in the 5 spot this year. Right now our SP lineup is something like this:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Belisle
4. Volquez
5. Bailey
6. Cueto
7. Maloney
8. Shearn
Livingston - not ranked because who knows when he will get back or how effective he will be then.

I do not think Hernandez will put up a better ERA than any of the top 5 guys on that list. We definitely need to add depth so that we don't get forced into relying on Cueto or Maloney if they aren't ready. My issue is that you don't spend $5M+ on a guy to be your depth. There are cheaper options out there who I think are actually better than Hernandez.

If Hernandez can repeat his 2007 numbers (around 5.00 ERA and lots of innings) he would be great for the Reds. However, basically every peripheral pitching statistic you can find suggests that is unlikely to happen.

*BaseClogger*
01-04-2008, 11:27 PM
Sure, if he puts up a 6 ERA he will help the team, and he is a safe bet to do that. But why not shoot higher?

...or cheaper. Am I the first person ever to quote myself?

Newman4
01-05-2008, 01:25 AM
Anyone find ANY source to Livan to Cincinnati besides XM?

AmarilloRed
01-05-2008, 01:38 AM
Anyone find ANY source to Livan to Cincinnati besides XM?

XM 175 simply said that Livan was Krivsky's target for a veteran hurler. It has been the only source so far.

AmarilloRed
01-05-2008, 02:24 AM
I talked to Wayne Krivsky today for my Sunday Insider -- it's going to be on Jay Bruce, thus the previous post -- I asked him if the Reds were in on talks with any of the remaining free agent starters.

"You can assume that," he said.

The two I mentioned were Jon Lieber and Livan Hernandez. The thing that signing either would do is move Matt Belisle back into competition for a spot. Right now, Belisle's pretty much guaranteed a spot. I expect Belisle to be better this year, but his ERA was 5.32 last year and he gave up 212 hits in 177 innings.

posted by John Fay at 6:19 PM

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/01/reds-add-six-players_04.asp

I know this is reading a lot into it, but this would seem to confirm Krivsky is looking into a free agent signing, and Lieber and Hernandez were both mentioned.