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PickOff
01-04-2008, 01:32 PM
It is easy to say who you would like to sign from the free agent bunch still available, but at what price?

I have tried to attach deals to each free agent that I think is most likely. Of course, this is an inexact science.

I would choose Benson and his Clement like deal.

Options:

1. Livan Hernandez: 2 yrs at $16 million, 2010 club option of $9 with $2 million buyout.

2. Jon Lieber: 1 yr at $6.5 million, 2009 club option of $8.5 million with $500,000 buyout

3. Josh Fogg: 3 yrs at $23 million

4. Kris Benson: 1 yr at $2 million + incentives to $8million, 2009 club option of $9.5 million with $250,000 buyout

5. Freddy Garcia: 1 yr at $5 million + incentives to $9 million, 2009 player option at $10 million if he meets 120 innings in '08

6. Bartolo Colon: 2 yrs at $20 million

7. Brett Tomko: 1 yr at $4 million, 2009 club option of $5 million with $375,000 buyout

8. None of the above!

Newman4
01-04-2008, 01:34 PM
I vote for #8. Too much $$$ for unproven backend rotation fodder. Sorry.

BLEEDS
01-04-2008, 01:40 PM
1. Livan Hernandez: 2 yrs at $16 million, 2010 club option of $9 with $2 million buyout.
I like Livan, but I"m not paying $18M for 2 years of him!!

2. Jon Lieber: 1 yr at $6.5 million, 2009 club option of $8.5 million with $500,000 buyout
Maybe!

3. Josh Fogg: 3 yrs at $23 million
Josh Fogg for 3/$23M, he of the CAREER 4.90 ERA?!?!? NO THANKS!!!

4. Kris Benson: 1 yr at $2 million + incentives to $8million, 2009 club option of $9.5 million with $250,000 buyout
Maybe!

5. Freddy Garcia: 1 yr at $5 million + incentives to $9 million, 2009 player option at $10 million if he meets 120 innings in '08
Maybe!

6. Bartolo Colon: 2 yrs at $20 million
TOO MUCH money, no 2nd year.

7. Brett Tomko: 1 yr at $4 million, 2009 club option of $5 million with $375,000 buyout
I would have to take this one, seems best risk/reward play.

8. None of the above!
Perhaps.

PickOff
01-04-2008, 01:48 PM
I vote for #8. Too much $$$ for unproven backend rotation fodder. Sorry.

No apologies necessary. :thumbup:

Hopefully Wayne won't need to apologize either, whatever he ends up getting done.

XU Lou
01-04-2008, 02:19 PM
At these prices, I agree Tomko provides the best risk/reward.

I had a thought though, what if you sign Tomko AND Benson? That would add $6-$12 Million in payroll which I admit may be a little much. Kind of a hedging strategy. Hopefully one of them pans out.

In doing so you have are retaining all of the young studs. The rotation would be:

Harang
Arroyo
Benson
Belisle/Bailey
Tomko

Inevitably someone will go down with injury and you bring up one of the kids. This strategy allows the Reds to play for this year and 2009 and beyond.

Again, just a thought.

*BaseClogger*
01-04-2008, 02:28 PM
I like Livan a little more than Lieber, mostly due to him being less of an injury/age risk. I think both are productive #3/#4 type starters when healthy. However, I think Lieber is actually the safer play because you propose him a a 1yr signing as compared to Livan's 2 guaranteed yr's...
Nice poll!

Degenerate39
01-04-2008, 03:20 PM
Colon but not that much money

*BaseClogger*
01-04-2008, 03:21 PM
Colon but not that much money

I think the whole idea is that he will command that price so it is part of the package...

PickOff
01-04-2008, 03:38 PM
Colon but not that much money

What's the most expensive deal for Colon you would accept?

Bip Roberts
01-04-2008, 03:53 PM
The reds have plenty of stink with out adding another colon to the roster

BEETTLEBUG
01-04-2008, 06:14 PM
4 5 and 7 maybe 6 but not that kind of money on 6

Vada Pinson Fan
01-04-2008, 06:20 PM
If those have to be the parameters Pickoff, I go with Kris Benson.

"Kris Benson: 1 yr at $2 million + incentives to $8million, 2009 club option of $9.5 million with $250,000 buyout"

Relatively small investment for 2008 minus incentives (if he makes the incentives good for him and us) and the team has the option for 2009 (which at that price I decline for 2009) . Even with a great 2008, Benson is too much of a health risk to guarantee $9.5 mil. in '09 by picking up his option.

All of the other pitchers are cost prohibitive in my mind, even Tomko at 1 yr. 4 million isn't worth that to me.

PickOff
01-04-2008, 06:29 PM
If those have to be the parameters Pickoff, I go with Kris Benson.

"Kris Benson: 1 yr at $2 million + incentives to $8million, 2009 club option of $9.5 million with $250,000 buyout"

Relatively small investment for 2008 minus incentives (if he makes the incentives good for him and us) and the team has the option for 2009 (which at that price I decline for 2009) . Even with a great 2008, Benson is too much of a health risk to guarantee $9.5 mil. in '09 by picking up his option.

All of the other pitchers are cost prohibitive in my mind, even Tomko at 1 yr. 4 million isn't worth that to me.

I like that Benson is a ground ball pitcher and very consistent when heathy. I think he would be a good fit at GAB. I too would go with him.

I know I overshot quite a bit on the salary for Colon, but if he perfoms well in the winter league than he should be able to get a 2 yr deal. I see Benson as the one with the most upside of all of them, though.

SMcGavin
01-04-2008, 07:17 PM
Good idea for a poll. I went with Lieber, but I would be ok with any of those other than Fogg, Hernandez, and Colon. We only need a one year deal.

Vada Pinson Fan
01-04-2008, 07:28 PM
I like that Benson is a ground ball pitcher and very consistent when heathy. I think he would be a good fit at GAB. I too would go with him.

I know I overshot quite a bit on the salary for Colon, but if he perfoms well in the winter league than he should be able to get a 2 yr deal. I see Benson as the one with the most upside of all of them, though.

You did a real nice job with the numbers- Pickoff. Better than what I could have done, for sure!

If WK has to go the FA starting pitcher route, I think it's better to be frugal at this point and use those $$$$$ for the 2008 post season free agents.

Natty Redlocks
01-04-2008, 09:21 PM
As always, I vote to fire Dusty first, then let the little details like these work themselves out.

Slyder
01-04-2008, 09:45 PM
I never like player options regardless of the prerequisits to "activate" it. You leave yourself no way to get out if said player reaches that and just comes for the paycheck afterwards. If you want to do a mutual option I would take Garcia in a heart beat. But of those Benson would be the one I'd gamble on. Make Garcia's option a Mutual one and I would take him also at that price and see if he can't come back and help.

AmarilloRed
01-05-2008, 12:59 AM
I voted for Livan Hernandez. 200 IP and 19 quality starts is hard to argue with. I realize he will give up the long ball, but he will keep us in games.

BEETTLEBUG
01-05-2008, 01:30 PM
I haven't voted yet 50 people is not very good judge. More votes Please.

Edd Roush
01-05-2008, 01:47 PM
I don't want Livan for two years. I would much rather have him 1 year for 8 mil than 2 years for 16 million. I voted for Lieber. I think he would be a good back of the rotation starter and 6.5 million is very reasonable for one year.

I thought about Benson, but if i remember correctly he won't be back til mid-May and I want a starter who will be ready at the beginning of the season to carry us. Ironically, I think some one posted a stat over on the ORG about Livan having a career April/May ERA of under 4.

wlf WV
01-06-2008, 02:23 AM
None of above.Chris Welsh,lefty,and we could get the inside scoop(on days not pitching) rather than inside pitch or maybe both.

PickOff
01-06-2008, 01:13 PM
None of above.Chris Welsh,lefty,and we could get the inside scoop(on days not pitching) rather than inside pitch or maybe both.

What you talkin' about, Willis?

http://blog.doctissimo.fr/php/blog/monenfance/images/gary-coleman.jpg

BEETTLEBUG
01-08-2008, 01:14 PM
vote for Benson at the 2Mil with insentives up to 8Mil with club option

Bip Roberts
01-08-2008, 01:17 PM
Benson if i havent already said it before

AdamDunn
01-08-2008, 03:28 PM
Benson... but my goodness, why does everyone want Lieber?

*BaseClogger*
01-08-2008, 05:20 PM
Benson... but my goodness, why does everyone want Lieber?

because he is the best pitcher available that only requires a one year contract.

I hate when polls aren't public...

BEETTLEBUG
01-08-2008, 05:35 PM
Leiber may be ok but he is the oldest at 40. Well I don't think Livan is that old but you never know about Cuban birthdays. Just read on ORG that Reds are after Fogg.

*BaseClogger*
01-08-2008, 05:42 PM
Leiber may be ok but he is the oldest at 40. Well I don't think Livan is that old but you never know about Cuban birthdays. Just read on ORG that Reds are after Fogg.

He will be 38... the same age as David Weathers...

AmarilloRed
01-08-2008, 08:06 PM
4 votes out of 90 for Josh Fogg- A huge wellspring of support there.:)

PickOff
01-08-2008, 08:12 PM
4 votes out of 90 for Josh Fogg- A huge wellspring of support there.:)

I'm shocked, he is such a bargain at $23 million over three! :D