Redszone Community Prospect Vote #25 runoff

[dougdirt]

In the past we have had a runoff if there were two or more players within 3 votes of eachother. Chris Dickerson and Justin Turner are within 2 votes right now, so we will give this one two days, or until someone takes a substantial lead.

Make your pick between the two of these guys.

[camisadelgolf]

I think Dickerson doesn't make good contact, and it will become worse after he sees MLB pitching. Also, I believe his defensive abilities are exaggerated. Turner, on the other hand, is very underrated as a result of not having any skills that jump out as stellar--he's just moderately skilled at everything (which says a lot, seeing as how second base is such an offensively-weak position). All in all, Justin Turner was an easy choice for me (as he has been for the past few votes).

[reds44]

Dickerson should have been off the board awhile ago.

[Kc61]

Dickerson should have been off the board awhile ago.

Doesn't make contact. Turner is more likely to stick in the major leagues someday, albeit in a utility role.

[Highlifeman21]

Dickerson should have been off the board awhile ago.

Dickerson's never been known for his stick, but he can certainly track a ball off the bat, and run it down while he's tracking it.

I would have thought his defensive ability alone would have taken him off the board between 10 and 20, but here he still is @ 25.

[Orenda]

With his contact issues I think he is going to have a tough time sticking on a MLB roster for any extended period of time. He will most likely get a couple of looks but I don't see too many organizations showing a lot of patience with him at the big league level. Barring a significant injury to the big league roster he will most likely be given 40-50 at bat windows as auditions and he would have too really show something in the field or on the basepaths to stick. As an overall athlete he could warrant a spot higher on a prospect list but I like Turner a little better at this point.

[RedsManRick]

At this point in the list I'm weighting ceiling really heavily, because nobody left is likely to make an impact in the next 2 years. That takes me to Turner.

[reds44]

Dickerson's never been known for his stick, but he can certainly track a ball off the bat, and run it down while he's tracking it.

I would have thought his defensive ability alone would have taken him off the board between 10 and 20, but here he still is @ 25.
Speed, Eye, Developing Power, and Defense. He has by far the most potentional of anyone left.

[reds44]

I think Dickerson doesn't make good contact, and it will become worse after he sees MLB pitching. Also, I believe his defensive abilities are exaggerated. Turner, on the other hand, is very underrated as a result of not having any skills that jump out as stellar--he's just moderately skilled at everything (which says a lot, seeing as how second base is such an offensively-weak position). All in all, Justin Turner was an easy choice for me (as he has been for the past few votes).
Anything to back that up?

[camisadelgolf]

Anything to back that up?

No, I don't. It's just my opinion and should be taken with a grain of salt. A few specific people on RedsZone have hyped Dickerson up to be better than 99% of MLB center fielders defensively, but for me, personally, I'd put him no better than in the top 10-20%. If I come up with something objective to back that up, I'll let you know.

[Mario-Rijo]

Speed, Eye, Developing Power, and Defense. He has by far the most potentional of anyone left.

All that is meaningless if his bat speed is below avg., at least as it pertains to ceiling. His potential is outstanding if that's not the case, but my guess is that's exactly the case or he would have arrived in the bigs some time ago and with quite a bit more hype.

W/O the bat speed he is a late inning defender/pinch runner. Turner OTOH has the potential to be a valuable utility man at the least and an avg starter at best. Sure Dickerson's talent is much better overall but if you lack the ability to hit consistently you are likely to spend more time in AAA than the bigs in your career.

[dougdirt]

From all scouting reports I have seen, from multiple different sources, Dickerson is absolutely legit in centerfield.

[kheidg-]

Dickerson

[5ToolPlaya]

Turner #25
Dickerson #26

and let's move on to #27.

[dougdirt]

Turner #25
Dickerson #26

and let's move on to #27.

doesn't work that way because maybe the Turner voters like Justin Reed or something and then he would get more votes than Dickerson.

[*BaseClogger*]

As to Dickerson's exagerrated defensive ability- ZiPS only projected him to be an average defensive major league CF. Now I know, it is tough to project minor leaguer's defensive ability, and that is exactly what Dan Szymborski said when I asked him about it, but he had Stubbs and Bruce as very good CF's. Those guys are less advanced than Dickerson, so maybe the stats say something about Dickerson's defense that the scouting reports don't?

[dougdirt]

As to Dickerson's exagerrated defensive ability- ZiPS only projected him to be an average defensive major league CF. Now I know, it is tough to project minor leaguer's defensive ability, and that is exactly what Dan Szymborski said when I asked him about it, but he had Stubbs and Bruce as very good CF's. Those guys are less advanced than Dickerson, so maybe the stats say something about Dickerson's defense that the scouting reports don't?

What does Dan use to project these 'defensive' projections?

[*BaseClogger*]

What does Dan use to project these 'defensive' projections?

I've been looking for the last half hour and the only things I can come up with are the STATS and BIS zone ratings. maybe this will help: when asked about Encarnacion's defense, Dan anwsered:


I have Encarnacion at 3 runs worse than average the last 2 years. I'm projecting him at 5 runs worse, which is just above my threshold for FR.

PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).

[*BaseClogger*]

Also, when asked about Hunter Pence's CF defense he had this to say:


PMR had Pence 2 outs worse than average. The Dial LW method had his range at 3 runs worse than average and an arm 1 better than average. The only UZR I've got is MGL's mid-season update with Pence 1 run better than average.

[dougdirt]

There is no ZR for minor leaguers to my knowledge, so if thats what he uses then it doesn't apply to Dickerson or Bruce for that matter.

[*BaseClogger*]

There is no ZR for minor leaguers to my knowledge, so if thats what he uses then it doesn't apply to Dickerson or Bruce for that matter.

You've got a point, but there has to be some method to his madness. I don't think he just throws a dart at a dartboard to determine his defensive projections...

[BoydsOfSummer]

Don't pay much attention to those ZIPS defensive ratings. He basically just guesstimates.

[kheidg-]

Wow, this is pretty close we might end up having to call a tie.

[icehole3]

maybe one of these guys could cry like Hillary and wrap this thing up

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Props/patriot-smilie.gif

[*BaseClogger*]

maybe one of these guys could cry like Hillary and wrap this thing up

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Props/patriot-smilie.gif

Chris Dickerson calls for change!

[TOBTTReds]

There is no ZR for minor leaguers to my knowledge, so if thats what he uses then it doesn't apply to Dickerson or Bruce for that matter.

BIS does it. Not sure if it is published to the public though. I thought it was somewhere. I'll look though.

[dougdirt]

BIS does it. Not sure if it is published to the public though. I thought it was somewhere. I'll look though.

Interesting. Let me know what you find out.

[M2]

I voted Dickerson with the rationale being that he's one step away from the majors while Turner will need to make three jumps. Dickerson also played quite well in the AFL. He WILL play in the majors in his career, maybe not for long, but he'll have an entry in the Baseball Encyclopedia. That's something you can't say with surety about Turner.

[kheidg-]

I voted Dickerson with the rationale being that he's one step away from the majors while Turner will need to make three jumps. Dickerson also played quite well in the AFL. He WILL play in the majors in his career, maybe not for long, but he'll have an entry in the Baseball Encyclopedia. That's something you can't say with surety about Turner.

My thoughts exactly.

Let's end this, Dickerson has now won twice -- in the first poll by two votes and he is up 3 on this won.

[AmarilloRed]

I voted for Justin Turner again. I just don't think Dickerson can hit in the major leagues.

[TankdawgXIX]

I don't know too much about the Reds minor league system. Especially since I am a Mariners fan. I do however know about Justin Turner. I have gotten to watch him play for a long time. Everybody all ways talks about the 5 tools, but "Red" has some intangibles that don't show up on a scouting sheet.

First off he is a tough kid. I have seen him go full speed into 1st basemen that have 40-50 lbs and 3-6 inches on him. And, he keeps coming back. And don't forget that fastball off his dish he took in the CWS. Even after that he came back the next year and was unphased. I would have wet my pants for the 1000 pitches I saw after that.

Secondly he is smart. His baseball savy is off the charts.

Finally, he is a winner. I have never seen him play on a loser. He won in Little League, he won in Pony League, he won High School, he won a Connie Mack WS, and he went to the CWS 3 out of 4 years at CSUF.

Like I said, I am a Mariners fan and if I were the GM of that team I would give you Adam Jones right now for Turner.

What he would bring to the club house alone would be worth it.

[BoydsOfSummer]

Cincinnati will adore him then.

[Kc61]

Doug -- it's obvious that the loser of this poll will be the next selectee. In this particular case you might just give Turner and Dickerson the next two slots, 25 and 26, in the order of finish in this poll. These guys are basically tied anyway.

Then we can move on to the next group of prospects.

[kheidg-]

In the past we have had a runoff if there were two or more players within 3 votes of eachother.

What about poll number 23?


Doug -- it's obvious that the loser of this poll will be the next selectee. In this particular case you might just give Turner and Dickerson the next two slots, 25 and 26, in the order of finish in this poll. These guys are basically tied anyway.

Then we can move on to the next group of prospects.

Kc61, I agree. Let's move on.

[Patrick Bateman]

I don't know too much about the Reds minor league system. Especially since I am a Mariners fan. I do however know about Justin Turner. I have gotten to watch him play for a long time. Everybody all ways talks about the 5 tools, but "Red" has some intangibles that don't show up on a scouting sheet.

First off he is a tough kid. I have seen him go full speed into 1st basemen that have 40-50 lbs and 3-6 inches on him. And, he keeps coming back. And don't forget that fastball off his dish he took in the CWS. Even after that he came back the next year and was unphased. I would have wet my pants for the 1000 pitches I saw after that.

Secondly he is smart. His baseball savy is off the charts.

Finally, he is a winner. I have never seen him play on a loser. He won in Little League, he won in Pony League, he won High School, he won a Connie Mack WS, and he went to the CWS 3 out of 4 years at CSUF.

Like I said, I am a Mariners fan and if I were the GM of that team I would give you Adam Jones right now for Turner.

What he would bring to the club house alone would be worth it.


Welcome aboard.

May I say that I sincercely hope that you become Bill Bavasi's successor ;)

[TankdawgXIX]

Welcome aboard.

Thanks

May I say that I sincercely hope that you become Bill Bavasi's successor

I couldn't be any worse

[lollipopcurve]

I don't know too much about the Reds minor league system. Especially since I am a Mariners fan. I do however know about Justin Turner. I have gotten to watch him play for a long time. Everybody all ways talks about the 5 tools, but "Red" has some intangibles that don't show up on a scouting sheet.

First off he is a tough kid. I have seen him go full speed into 1st basemen that have 40-50 lbs and 3-6 inches on him. And, he keeps coming back. And don't forget that fastball off his dish he took in the CWS. Even after that he came back the next year and was unphased. I would have wet my pants for the 1000 pitches I saw after that.

Secondly he is smart. His baseball savy is off the charts.

Finally, he is a winner. I have never seen him play on a loser. He won in Little League, he won in Pony League, he won High School, he won a Connie Mack WS, and he went to the CWS 3 out of 4 years at CSUF.

Like I said, I am a Mariners fan and if I were the GM of that team I would give you Adam Jones right now for Turner.

What he would bring to the club house alone would be worth it.

Thanks, TankdawgXIX. I'm a big Turner fan, too. I've been saying all along he'll be a Red someday -- and if he doesn't make the majors in Cincy, it'll be somewhere else.

[TOBTTReds]

May I say that I sincercely hope that you become Bill Bavasi's successor

I couldn't be any worse


I appreciate your post about Turner, but it seems to me you could be worse! ;)

Turner for Adam Jones? sign me up!