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View Full Version : Reds need Blanton, not Fogg



DannyB
01-09-2008, 04:29 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080109/COL03/301090070


BY PAUL DAUGHERTY | PDAUGHERTY@ENQUIRER.COM


Kris Benson, George Benson, Benson & Hedges. Freddy Garcia, Jerry Garcia. Jon Lieber, Jon Stewart. Rod Stewart. Does it matter? Iím getting Josh Fogg-y. Do the Reds want to win a division in 2008, or just a few more hearts and minds? Do they want to go for it or go near it?

When the Reds lured Dusty (Win Now) Baker and spent major whipout on Francisco Cordero, the playoff ship pulled from drydock. Bob Castellini was on the Lido Deck with a mai-tai in his hand. When the Reds bailed on an Erik Bedard deal and traded their best centerfielder for a prospect, they dropped anchor in third place.

Now, maybe, theyíre shopping for a Fogg-type. Wow. The í08 playoff boat has run aground. Definitely.



If the Reds want to win 81, thereís no need for further tinkering. Forget the retreads. Too many Miltons, Lidles and Lohses have made too much Reds money lately.

Livan Hernandez, thanks but no thanks. Brett Tomko? You must be joking.

The Reds can get to .500 with what theyíve got. Thatís nine games better than last year. Itís progress. Use the year to judge the kid pitchers. See if Johnny Cueto passes the audition and Homer Bailey makes a needed leap. Hope you didnít overvalue Edinson Volquez, who only has two major league-worthy pitches.

Cross your fingers and pray for rain when Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo donít start. Hope all your Ifs magically become Whens.

If the Reds desire more than average, they need to step right up, take a chance, spin a wheel. Go after Joe Blanton. Blanton is 27. He has won 42 games in three seasons, while averaging 215 innings a year. He went 14-10 for the Oakland Aís last season, in 230 innings.

Heís arbitration eligible for the first time this year, meaning the Reds would control him for three seasons. By all accounts, heís got an Aaron Harang mentality on the hill. Blanton allowed just 16 home runs last year, never a bad stat for someone pitching in Pretty Good American Ball Park.

Oakland wizard GM Billy Beane has decided to dismantle his team again. This offseason he has traded his best pitcher (Dan Haren) and one of his best hitters (Nick Swisher) for nine prospects. Heíll listen to offers for Blanton. The Reds have what interests him.

Whatís it going to be?

The Reds couldnít land the lefty Bedard because the Orioles wanted Jay Bruce and significant others in return. Highway met robbery. The Reds made a U-turn. Fair enough. Theyíre not in the market for Johan Santana, Haren has gone to Arizona, Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. The Giants didnít want to part with Matt Cain.
That leaves Blanton and the Retreads.

Itís hard parting with prospects, especially pitchers. But right now, the Reds have three kids they believe will be in the majors this year, four if you count Matt Maloney. At best, two of the four will pan out. If you have to trade one of them, and a Joey Votto and another lesser player Ė Ryan Freel? Norris Hopper? Ė to land a 27-year-old workhorse you control for three years, is that too traumatic?

Baker and Cordero showed Castellini meant business. But the dealís only half done. Unless they add a solid No. 3 starter, the Reds are in the twilight zone between contending now and waiting for the fruit to ripen. How important will Cordero be if three nights out of five, he doesnít work? Why does it still appear that Christmas in RedsLand is always Dec. 32?

Castellini thought his two most important offseason tasks were to hire a manager his players would respect and to get some relief for his relief corps. Check and check. Now, heís halfway across the Atlantic and doesnít know which way to row. If the Reds really are rolling for retreads, itíd seem the decision already has been made. They wonít win this year with Josh Fogg.

The future looks good, though. The future usually does

terminator
01-09-2008, 04:38 PM
I agree with that. Either get someone good or stick with the young guys. There's no reason to bring in known mediocrity.

757690
01-09-2008, 05:37 PM
I agree with that. Either get someone good or stick with the young guys. There's no reason to bring in known mediocrity.

But there is many reasons to bring in a veteran innings eater, no matter how mediocre he is.

1) With two pitchers under the age of 25 in the rotation, that means that in two out of every five games, you are guaranteed to go to the bullpen for at least three to four innings. That will destroy a great bullpen, let alone the one the Reds have going into the season. A guy who can go 7 or longer in at least half of his games, will save the bullpen.

2) A veteran will allow three of the four young guns to get more experience in AAA. This also allows the Reds to use the hot hand among the young guns throughout the season.

3) YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH PITCHING! An average team goes through 8 starters in a season, the Reds went through 10 last year. The Reds currently have 6 pitchers, including Shearn, with major league experience, plus Cueto and Maloney. At least one extra arm will mean less starts from guys like Saarloos and Dumatrait. I would rather have 10 starts from Fogg than from Jim Brower and Adam Pettyjohn.

BLEEDS
01-09-2008, 06:24 PM
I can find a middle groung - getting a retread #4/#5 start is the SAME as not doing anything, except we wouldn't be starting 2 rookies in the 4/5 spot, just one.

I think Livan is the best we can hope for - emphasize HOPE - that he can step in and be a #3 SP, pushing Belisle to #4, and #5 is "RookieVille".

Otherwise we trade for a Blanton/Bedard, and Arroyo becomes our #3, the rest the same, and we COMPETE THIS YEAR for the Playoffs.

My biggest gripe is shared by this guy - WHY get an $11M closer if you're going to WASTE him by using him for 35 saves instead of possibly 50 or more.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

jmac
01-09-2008, 06:42 PM
I have been a big fan of aquiring Blanton depending on the deal Beane would want.
Beane should know Blanton isnt in the same tier as Haran so the asking price shouldnt be as much.
If not Blanton, check on Lee. I have also liked the idea of Colon but from AR's last few posts, I am changing my mind on him.

Vada Pinson Fan
01-09-2008, 06:44 PM
This what I wrote here yesterday and I'm in agreement with Paul Dougherty concerning Fogg.

Re: Fay says Reds interested in Josh Fogg

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vada Pinson Fan wrote:
"Just go with what we have (Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, and the top 4 young starting pitchers-Bailey, Cueto, Volquez and Maloney) and see what shakes out during spring training. Go with 2 of the 4 kids to fill spots 4 and 5. Let these kids get experience and in 2009 be ready to contend by:
1) knowing better what the young 4 above can do,
2) get a stud FA pitcher (if needed) after the '08 season,
3) fill the weak position spots by trade or free agency,
4) by not spending on Fogg and the likes, Krivsky has that money+ to go after better talent next off-season. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see the Reds contending for the division crown in 2008. So let the young pitchers show what they can do THIS YEAR."


However if Krivsky can get Blanton then go ahead and do it at a reasonable cost of player talent going to the A's. If Santana is out of the question (financially- even if we satisfied the Twins demands- Johann would want the bank most likely to remain a Red), Bedard talks with Baltimore going nowhere b/c of the Orioles demand for Jay Bruce + more of the top 5, and Kazmir having Tampa baynot inclined to trade him at this point in time, leaves Blanton as a primary target. With Billy Beane trading away Haren for less than I thought he could get, hopefully, Wayne K. can trade for Blanton and not break the top-prospect bank the Reds currently enjoy. I agree with "Doc", if the Reds want to contend for the division crown this season, at least trade for Blanton and definitely avoid the likes of Josh Fogg or his ilk.

Carolina Red
01-09-2008, 06:57 PM
Hey, if we can package Volquez, Votto, and maybe either Freel or Hopper for Blanton I'd jump on it. It would definately get the bad taste out of my mouth left by the Hamilton trade. I also think we would have a good shot at being able to afford to re-sign Blanton in three years. I don't think we could afford Santana or Bedard even if we could get them.

jmac
01-09-2008, 07:17 PM
I also think we would have a good shot at being able to afford to re-sign Blanton in three years.
Definitely !

SultanOfSwing
01-09-2008, 07:50 PM
Hey, if we can package Volquez, Votto, and maybe either Freel or Hopper for Blanton I'd jump on it. It would definately get the bad taste out of my mouth left by the Hamilton trade. I also think we would have a good shot at being able to afford to re-sign Blanton in three years. I don't think we could afford Santana or Bedard even if we could get them.
IMO, that is a horrible trade. If Krivsky even considered it (which he isn't), he should be fired. Blanton is a solid #4 (maybe #3) starter, but he fits GABP terribly. It is also very likely that Volquez could put up similar numbers next year that Blanton would, but he had top 5 ace potential. To add in Votto and anyone else is crazy.

I believe the key is this: Fogg costs no talent, only money; Blanton costs young players the Reds would be better off keeping.

757690
01-09-2008, 08:00 PM
Hey, if we can package Volquez, Votto, and maybe either Freel or Hopper for Blanton I'd jump on it. It would definately get the bad taste out of my mouth left by the Hamilton trade. I also think we would have a good shot at being able to afford to re-sign Blanton in three years. I don't think we could afford Santana or Bedard even if we could get them.

I might trade Freel for Blanton, but not much more.

Blanton is just not that great. He is decent, but not nearly as good as his numbers, which are mostly due to pitching most of his games in Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle. He has a career 5.83 ERA outside of those stadiums. He gives up a lot of hits and doesn't strike out many. He basically is a slightly younger and better Josh Fogg.

If Blanton were to pitch in GABP. he wouldn't be as good as Volquez next year, growing pains and all.

I wouldn't trade Votto alone for two Blantons.

Bip Roberts
01-09-2008, 08:31 PM
The reds dont need blanton either

jmac
01-09-2008, 09:31 PM
The reds dont need blanton either

Who do they need ?
Just curious.

Bip Roberts
01-09-2008, 09:37 PM
Who do they need ?
Just curious.

They need to land either a better pitcher or just stick with the young guys. Blanton apparently is being shopped but has a high price and ive seen reports of what the A's are demanding, and its Jones from the Mariners.

Id like Joe but im not going to try to force some deal that I dont think they should make.

*BaseClogger*
01-09-2008, 10:05 PM
If we are going to pay a lot of young talent to trade for a starting pitcher I would trade for Ian Snell of the Pirates. Thoughts?

Bip Roberts
01-09-2008, 10:14 PM
If we are going to pay a lot of young talent to trade for a starting pitcher I would trade for Ian Snell of the Pirates. Thoughts?

:bowrofl:

*BaseClogger*
01-09-2008, 10:27 PM
:bowrofl:

Is it because of my seeming obsession with Ian Snell? Dude I want you all to tell me how awesome I am after this season after Snell gets Cy Young Votes... :cool:

Bip Roberts
01-09-2008, 10:30 PM
Is it because of my seeming obsession with Ian Snell? Dude I want you all to tell me how awesome I am after this season after Snell gets Cy Young Votes... :cool:

there isnt a :bowgiggle: smiley

DannyB
01-10-2008, 06:20 AM
They need to land either a better pitcher or just stick with the young guys. Blanton apparently is being shopped but has a high price and ive seen reports of what the A's are demanding, and its Jones from the Mariners.

Id like Joe but im not going to try to force some deal that I dont think they should make.

I wouldnt have a problem with the kids in the rotation if the bullpen was alot better.

Moosie52
01-10-2008, 07:47 AM
Blanton, Stanton. Eh.

gomuskies
01-10-2008, 05:21 PM
Trade for Blanton, local guy, inning eater ect...
Its not bedard, but he has consistantly pitched MORE innings than bedard and will come at a small fraction of the price
Malony, stubbs and 1-2 more young guys along those lines (realistic?) beane wants quantity.
we still go forward, see what the trifecta + belise can do this spring and that would determine who fills the 4 and 5 spots and we hold onto Votto and the trifecta

Dracodave
01-10-2008, 05:27 PM
Its not bedard, but he has consistantly pitched MORE innings than bedard and will come at a small fraction of the price
Malony, stubbs and 1-2 more young guys along those lines (realistic?) beane wants quantity.


Beane wanted Jones from The M's. My guess is he starts with Cueto/Bailey (Both who I can see beating Blantons stats) and then works his way down.

gomuskies
01-10-2008, 05:38 PM
fine offer Maloney, Stubbs or Francisco, beane has a thinng for LH three baggers plus a sinle a guy or two.
I have trouble believing if he could get Jones from Seattle along with some minor talent it would not have been done. The sale has begun and blanton has to go, he's the only guy out there but the price IS going to drop from a elite prospect to the stubbsish area.
Hold onto the top 4-5 guys offer second level prospects for a secopnd level pitcher.
I'de be shocked if blanton moves for anything more than a few good prospects.

Dracodave
01-10-2008, 05:52 PM
Reds To Stand Pat On Rotation?

The Cincy Enquirer's John Fay (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/01/on-starting-pitcher-front.asp) thinks the Reds are backing off on Erik Bedard as well as the second-tier free agent pitchers. He's talked to some baseball people on the topic and believes the price is too high for the Reds in any case.
Honestly they're not in that bad of shape with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Belisle.

BLEEDS
01-10-2008, 06:03 PM
Quote:
Reds To Stand Pat On Rotation?

Quote:

The Cincy Enquirer's John Fay thinks the Reds are backing off on Erik Bedard as well as the second-tier free agent pitchers. He's talked to some baseball people on the topic and believes the price is too high for the Reds in any case.
Honestly they're not in that bad of shape with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Belisle.




Geez, let's hope so. If the alternative is giving up Bailey, Cueto, Votto, and EdE, then I will shut the heck up and go with what we got instead.

I'd still like to get a Veteran SP like Hernandez. I'd prefer to Take ONE of Volquez/Bailey/Cueto and let the other two get more seasoning in AAA to start the year.

Let the other two Pitch themselves out of AAA and into the starting rotation - not to mention possibly keeping their Arb clock from starting.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redhawk61
01-14-2008, 03:05 PM
I think the A's asked for jones for the shere fact that of the same reason the M's wouldn't do it if they trade blanton to their own division they want a great deal in return.

Realistically I don't even think Beane is asking for Bailey or Cueto. When you look at the Haren deal you see 1 top 50 player in the same tier as Votto and then a bunch of guys who have some upside but nothing jaw dropping. Being that Blanton is in know way near Haren's talent I doubt we would even have to give up any of the Big 4 or 5 if you include Volquez. And I am not saying this based on bias but on the sheer fact of the type of GM Beane is. He isn't greedy like the O's GM, he is just smart. Also back to Cueto, Beane already nows he isn't getting Cueto as Kriv wouldn't give him up for Haren, but since Beane isn't the type of guy like the O's man who says "Bruce or bust" I think Beane says ok lets dig deeper into the farm.

I look for a deal getting done of none of the top four but including something like Fransisco, Roenicke and 1-2 more prospects.

BLEEDS
01-14-2008, 03:26 PM
I think the A's asked for jones for the shere fact that of the same reason the M's wouldn't do it if they trade blanton to their own division they want a great deal in return.

Realistically I don't even think Beane is asking for Bailey or Cueto. When you look at the Haren deal you see 1 top 50 player in the same tier as Votto and then a bunch of guys who have some upside but nothing jaw dropping. Being that Blanton is in know way near Haren's talent I doubt we would even have to give up any of the Big 4 or 5 if you include Volquez. And I am not saying this based on bias but on the sheer fact of the type of GM Beane is. He isn't greedy like the O's GM, he is just smart. Also back to Cueto, Beane already nows he isn't getting Cueto as Kriv wouldn't give him up for Haren, but since Beane isn't the type of guy like the O's man who says "Bruce or bust" I think Beane says ok lets dig deeper into the farm.

I look for a deal getting done of none of the top four but including something like Fransisco, Roenicke and 1-2 more prospects.

If he does that, he deserves GM of the year.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redhawk61
01-14-2008, 03:36 PM
And I wouldn't be suprised if a deal was done that that is the type of deal we would be looking at. It just looks like a Billy Beane deal