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View Full Version : ORG: Reds in on Melky Cabrera



TC81190
01-10-2008, 10:33 PM
from Rotoworld:

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal believes Mike Cameron could soon sign with the Yankees or Brewers.
The Yankees were saying they wouldn't bring in a starting center fielder even if they dealt Melky Cabrera, but that was just more deception. It is a surprise that they'd perhaps put in a bid for Cameron before trading Cabrera. Rosenthal seems to believe that Cabrera could go to Cubs, Reds, Braves, Royals or Pirates in return for prospects. The Cubs also have some level of interest in Cameron, but he's more likely to get multiple years elsewhere.

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I'm not sure I get the hype for Cabrera, especially considering that he's a big piece of the reported Santana deal. His #'s hitting wise seem pedestrian, so I assume he's a helluva centerfielder.

Bip Roberts
01-10-2008, 10:47 PM
We have plenty of Melky Cabreras on our roster and in our system

BearcatShane
01-10-2008, 10:49 PM
If we could trade Freel I'd take Cabrera in a heartbeat. He's a young, solid player.

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 12:54 AM
Depends on the prospect like always :)

BearcatShane
01-11-2008, 01:00 AM
Depends on the prospect like always :)

Yea, would you give up Dickerson and Fisher for him?

BEETTLEBUG
01-11-2008, 07:01 AM
Yes for Dickerson and Fisher also.

AdamDunn
01-11-2008, 12:43 PM
Yea, would you give up Dickerson and Fisher for him?

Hell... I'd give them those two and Thompson and Valakia as well!!!

gobucks106
01-11-2008, 12:56 PM
He could bat leadoff and give us the Centerfielder we need while Bruce continues to hone his skills at Triple A. At some point someone will get hurt and Bruce will come up and get his at-bats and contribute. Then when 09 rolls around and we don't pick up Griffey's option how about an outfield of Dunn in left, Cabera in Center, and Bruce in his natural position in right. Sounds like a winner to me. If all the Yanks want are prospects and not our top prospects make the deal yesterday. That means they'll haved signed Cameron and we won't, Thank God.

Blue
01-11-2008, 01:43 PM
Melky is terrible. I hope its not true.

757690
01-11-2008, 03:53 PM
Based on what I saw in the Playoffs, he has a hell of an arm. Threw out three or four runners at home with laser throws. Don't know about the rest of his defense. Being a switch hitter is a plus too. He's only 22 which means he could get better offensively. As Clogger says, it all depends on how expensive he is.

Brian
01-11-2008, 04:41 PM
I'm not sure you can call him terrible, Blue. I've watched him pretty closely over the last 2 years since he's been on my fantasy team. To be fair, he hasn't really had an opportunity to play a full season as a starter. It's a little hard to know what he's capable of at this point. But he definitely has talent, I assure you that he's not terrible.

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 05:23 PM
Yea, would you give up Dickerson and Fisher for him?

yes

this actually is starting to sound like a very good idea to me for the simple reason that it assures us Griffey's departure at the end of the year and we can slide Bruce to RF. I'm sure Bruce could start the year at AAA and be called up once Griff gets hurt...

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 05:28 PM
I'm not sure you can call him terrible, Blue. I've watched him pretty closely over the last 2 years since he's been on my fantasy team. To be fair, he hasn't really had an opportunity to play a full season as a starter. It's a little hard to know what he's capable of at this point. But he definitely has talent, I assure you that he's not terrible.

yes but he has been given 524 and 612 PA's the last two seasons...

mlbfan30
01-11-2008, 05:48 PM
Melky isn't a leadoff type hitter. He's more like a #7. He's not horrible at getting on base, but not great. You would expect a .340-.350 OBP at best. He's not a fast guy. He has 25 SB with 10 CS in 286 games. That's just an average at best type of runner. His defense isn't great. He does have a great arm, but his range is poor and he takes bad routes to the ball. He has very little power and is basically a singles hitter with a few doubles.

Melky is just an avg to below avg CF right now. He doesn't have the tools to excel at anything (except throwing) and it's not likely he'll make an dramatic improvement in his game. He's good enough to be a starter, but just as a role player.

I follow the Yanks also and have been watching him for 2 years. He just isn't going to add anything to the team, but he isn't going to take anything away. He's so valuable because he has 4 cheap years left, at league avg CF. That's worth about 8 Mil per year on the FA market.

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 07:56 PM
Melky isn't a leadoff type hitter. He's more like a #7. He's not horrible at getting on base, but not great. You would expect a .340-.350 OBP at best. He's not a fast guy. He has 25 SB with 10 CS in 286 games. That's just an average at best type of runner. His defense isn't great. He does have a great arm, but his range is poor and he takes bad routes to the ball. He has very little power and is basically a singles hitter with a few doubles.

Melky is just an avg to below avg CF right now. He doesn't have the tools to excel at anything (except throwing) and it's not likely he'll make an dramatic improvement in his game. He's good enough to be a starter, but just as a role player.

I follow the Yanks also and have been watching him for 2 years. He just isn't going to add anything to the team, but he isn't going to take anything away. He's so valuable because he has 4 cheap years left, at league avg CF. That's worth about 8 Mil per year on the FA market.

Last year he was 28 runs better than the replacement CF- pretty good!

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 08:00 PM
I think a .300/.370/.435 is reasonable for Cabrera. That sounds good with some great CF defense for cheap!

Bip Roberts
01-11-2008, 08:17 PM
Whos going to provide the great CF D?

Also I dont think reasonable is the correct term. Maybe more like unreasonable

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 08:20 PM
Whos going to provide the great CF D?

Also I dont think reasonable is the correct term. Maybe more like unreasonable


Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Melky Cabrera# cf 23 .286 .352 .419 159 580 83 166 29 6 12 89 59 65 13 4

ZiPS seems to pretty much agree. He's only 23 so there is still room for improvement...

SultanOfSwing
01-11-2008, 08:20 PM
I think a .300/.370/.435 is reasonable for Cabrera. That sounds good with some great CF defense for cheap!
If that was reasonable for Cabrera, he wouldn't be on the market. I don't think he can ever put up that line, even in GABP. And his defense is indefensible. ;)

*BaseClogger*
01-11-2008, 08:21 PM
If that was reasonable for Cabrera, he wouldn't be on the market. I don't think he can ever put up that line, even in GABP. And his defense is indefensible. ;)

28 FRAR?

SultanOfSwing
01-11-2008, 08:30 PM
28 FRAR?
That means that according to one defensive metric he was average to slightly-above-average in the Yankees 2007 CF. FWIW, he hasn't faired nearly as well in LF and RF (though with an admittedly small sample size in RF).

mlbfan30
01-11-2008, 08:32 PM
Last year he was 28 runs better than the replacement CF- pretty good!

I said average. Replacement is different than average.




I think a .300/.370/.435 is reasonable for Cabrera. That sounds good with some great CF defense for cheap!

He's never even hit above .280 and his lifetime mark is .275
He's never had a season above .360 OBP and his lifetime is .340 SLG
He's never hit above .400 SLG and has a lifetime .388 SLG

Are you going to say that you reasonably think he can outperform everything he's ever done. His SLG has been exactly .391 each season. He also declined in OBP by .033 last year. What makes him suddenly do his best ever in everything he does.

Also his CF range is not above avg for a CF. To think he's a great CF is just wrong. His arm is above avg tho.

He's a .280/.340/.400 hitter and with avg CF defense.
He's just an average player

Vada Pinson Fan
01-11-2008, 09:21 PM
I tend to want to stay away from Yankee-hyped players. The Reds have had a few deals with the Yankees over the last 20 years and the only one I can think of that turned out well for the Reds was getting Hal Morris. Brandon Claussen busted in the Aaron Boone trade. Paul O'Neill for Roberto (call me Bobby) Kelly was really bad for us considering what O'Neill did for the Yanks. There were many minor trades and I'd prefer not to deal with the Yankees. Bad karma.

fadetoblack2880
01-11-2008, 10:10 PM
I wouldn't see this happening now that Cameron is going to Milwaukee. I would've liked to have seen the Reds acquire Melky Cabrera. Well, at least Krivsky got Jolbert Cabrera. Better than no Cabrera at all...

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 03:14 AM
I said average. Replacement is different than average.





He's never even hit above .280 and his lifetime mark is .275
He's never had a season above .360 OBP and his lifetime is .340 SLG
He's never hit above .400 SLG and has a lifetime .388 SLG

Are you going to say that you reasonably think he can outperform everything he's ever done. His SLG has been exactly .391 each season. He also declined in OBP by .033 last year. What makes him suddenly do his best ever in everything he does.

Also his CF range is not above avg for a CF. To think he's a great CF is just wrong. His arm is above avg tho.

He's a .280/.340/.400 hitter and with avg CF defense.
He's just an average player

So he can't improve at age 23? He can't return to the patience at the plate he displayed in 2006? He can't hit better in the National League Central? He can't hit for more power in GABP? He can't get a bit luckier next year (.295 BABIP, 19.7 LD%)?

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 03:16 AM
In his first year of extended action-2006- .280/.360/.391 in 524 PA. So I say he improves his contact to become a .300 hitter, which naturally brings him up to at least a .370 OBP, and then he slugs .435 because of the raised avg and he now calls GABP home instead of Yankee Stadium... thats unreasonable???

Bip Roberts
01-12-2008, 12:15 PM
Yes hes never hit any of those marks in his career ever and he doesnt play great D, hes got a strong arm though

AmarilloRed
01-12-2008, 01:59 PM
I wonder if the Yankees will still trade Cabrera now that they lost Cameron to the Brewers.

DannyB
01-12-2008, 02:02 PM
Yea, would you give up Dickerson and Fisher for him?

Only if they took Stanton and Castro too:thumbup:

TheBigLebowski
01-12-2008, 02:11 PM
I've never understood the hype around Cabrera. Not at all.

Jack Burton
01-12-2008, 03:46 PM
I've never understood the hype around Cabrera. Not at all.

I agree, I'd say mediocre at best. I think we are set with the OF and don't understand why we'd go after Cabrera. If that is the case we should've just kept Hamilton.

AmarilloRed
01-12-2008, 04:06 PM
I agree, I'd say mediocre at best. I think we are set with the OF and don't understand why we'd go after Cabrera. If that is the case we should've just kept Hamilton.

We are not set with the OF. We have Dunn and Griffey not guaranteed past this year, and there is no guarantee either will be here in 2009. Jay Bruce can not start in 2 outfield positions simultaneously.

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 04:43 PM
Yes hes never hit any of those marks in his career ever and he doesnt play great D, hes got a strong arm though

he's 23. Thats like saying that since Homer Bailey has never had better than a 5.76 ERA he will never get any better than that... :rolleyes:

OK to make you guys happy I'll agree he doesn't play "great" CF defense... I'll settle on "very good"


We are not set with the OF. We have Dunn and Griffey not guaranteed past this year, and there is no guarantee either will be here in 2009. Jay Bruce can not start in 2 outfield positions simultaneously.

EXACTLY

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 04:44 PM
I agree, I'd say mediocre at best. I think we are set with the OF and don't understand why we'd go after Cabrera. If that is the case we should've just kept Hamilton.

We got Volquez for Hamilton. I'm not a huge Cabrera or Yankees fan, but I'm trying to get past that bias and just look at the numbers. If we can get Cabrera for a couple of B prospects such as the stated Dickerson and Fisher earlier, I'd be all for it!

Bip Roberts
01-12-2008, 04:55 PM
he's 23. Thats like saying that since Homer Bailey has never had better than a 5.76 ERA he will never get any better than that... :rolleyes:

OK to make you guys happy I'll agree he doesn't play "great" CF defense... I'll settle on "very good"



EXACTLY

Im not only looking at his MLB career though. He never hit anything similar to that even in the minors

and he doesnt even play very good D

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 05:14 PM
Im not only looking at his MLB career though. He never hit anything similar to that even in the minors

and he doesnt even play very good D

The Cabrera minor league numbers do worry me a bit, but I have confidence in those 2006 Yankees stats and the fact that he was only 21 at the time.

28 FRAR in CF, which is 13 above average, and equates to about one win?

Other Top CF's FRAR in 2007:
Torii Hunter 16
Carlos Beltran 28
Grady Sizemore 12
Curtis Granderson 40
Andruw Jones 27
Vernon Wells 13
Aaron Rowand 24
Coco Crisp 43

BearcatShane
01-12-2008, 05:20 PM
"Jay Bruce can not start in 2 outfield positions simultaneously."

I wouldn't be so sure..

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 05:24 PM
"Jay Bruce can not start in 2 outfield positions simultaneously."

I wouldn't be so sure..

I thought the same thing :laugh:

Bip Roberts
01-12-2008, 06:01 PM
Cabrera couldnt slug what you think is reasonable in his minor league career what proof is there that in he majors hes going to just gain power against better pitching thats in the majors?

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 06:03 PM
Cabrera couldnt slug what you think is reasonable in his minor league career what proof is there that in he majors hes going to just gain power against better pitching thats in the majors?

there have been plenty of players that developed power after not showing it in the minors, especially foreign born players like melky that were like 20. And he already has proven himself in the majors, in 2006!

Bip Roberts
01-12-2008, 06:06 PM
there have been plenty of players that developed power after not showing it in the minors, especially foreign born players like melky that were like 20. And he already has proven himself in the majors, in 2006!

ok and in 2007 he proved himself to have a fluke 2006

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 06:09 PM
ok and in 2007 he proved himself to have a fluke 2006

or 2007 was the fluke? He was 22?

By the way- Melky's range factor was better than pretty much every CF last year- it was .01 less than Curtis Granderson!

*BaseClogger*
01-12-2008, 06:12 PM
Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SB% BB K BA OBP SLG TB SH IBB HBP GDP OPS
2005 NYA AL 6 19 19 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 0 2 .211 .211 .211 4 0 0 0 0 .421
2006 NYA AL 130 524 460 75 129 26 2 7 50 12 5 70.6% 56 59 .280 .360 .391 180 5 3 2 9 .752
2007 NYA AL 150 612 545 66 149 24 8 8 73 13 5 72.2% 43 68 .273 .327 .391 213 10 0 5 14 .718

Year Tm Lg RC GPA P/PA LD% BA/BIP GB% IF/F HR/F BA/RISP Clutch
2005 NYA AL 0 .147 2.6 18.8% .235 37.5% N/A 0.0% .000 -0.8
2006 NYA AL 71 .267 3.7 17.2% .309 49.5% 12.9% 5.3% .305 1.9
2007 NYA AL 71 .247 3.7 19.7% .295 51.2% 11.6% 5.7% .272 -0.9

Bip Roberts
01-12-2008, 06:42 PM
need moar spaces