Reds Have Preliminary Discussions About Blanton

[RedLegSuperStar]

MLBTradeRumors.com -

We've heard the rumblings for some time. Now there's word from the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay that the Reds have "had some preliminary discussions with Oakland about right-hander Joe Blanton." The Reds also made some kind of offer for Erik Bedard, but Fay admits that neither trade is likely to occur. That's because the Reds won't trade Jay Bruce and only want to part with one of Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto (though all three are very good prospects). Note that Billy Beane reportedly wanted Cueto in a Dan Haren deal.

Instead, the Reds are entertaining all sorts of second tier free agents. Wayne Krivsky runs a tight ship, so it's tough to narrow down who the Reds have actually talked to. Fay implies that Livan Hernandez or Jon Lieber could be possibilities. We do know from previous reports that the Reds have shown interest in Lieber, Runelvys Hernandez, Brett Tomko, Josh Fogg, and David Wells.

Fay -

The first advice the Reds would like newly hired special adviser Walt Jocketty to give them is this:

Where can we find our Chris Carpenter?

Jocketty signed Carpenter in 2002 after he went 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA for Toronto. Carpenter was also hurt.

He sat out all of the 2003 season but came back better than ever. He went 51-18 from 2004-06.

The Cardinals won two National League pennants and a World Series title in that span, thanks largely to Carpenter.

Carpenter was a once-in-a-lifetime find, but Job One for Jocketty is to help the Reds plug a veteran into the pitching rotation.

There are two means of getting a starter: trade or free agency.

The Reds made a bid for Baltimore left-hander Erik Bedard.

And they've had some preliminary discussions with Oakland about right-hander Joe Blanton.

Neither is likely to end up a Red, unless the Orioles or A's back off their demands. The Reds won't trade top prospect Jay Bruce, and they aren't keen on giving up more than one of their other top prospects: Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto.

That leaves free agency.

Without talking specifics, general manager Wayne Krivsky says the Reds are active on that front.

"We're having lots of discussions," he said.

The top pitcher left might be former Reds right-hander Kyle Lohse. But he's coming off a 9-12, 4.62-ERA season. He's wildly inconsistent, and he's likely to get a lot of money.

Right-hander Livan Hernandez (11-11, 4.93) is also available. He pitched a lot of innings (2041/3 last year), but he gives up a lot of hits (247) and home runs (34). That's not the formula for success in Great American Ball Park.

The best way to go might be to take a risk on someone coming off an injury.

Right-hander Jon Lieber, 37, was limited by a foot injury to 12 starts last season. But he's a guy who went 17-13 with a 4.20 ERA in 2005.

It's hard to say if he'll return to that form again, but if he does, he'll make the Reds' rotation much better.

You can be sure Krivsky will be getting Jocketty's scouting report on Lieber and Co. over the next couple of days.

That's one of Jocketty's strengths.

"He's a tremendous talent evaluator," said Jeff Brantley, who played for Jocketty in St. Louis. "He sees the positives and the negatives. He's not afraid to take a chance."

If Bedard and Blanton are out, the Reds are in a position where they have to take a chance: a chance on a free agent, or a chance that two of their four young pitchers are ready.

Given Jocketty's history, the Reds are more likely to go the free-agent route.

[redsmetz]

Is any of this anything new?

[Heath]

Is any of this anything new?

Let's see -

mlbtradrumors.com muck on the wall.....check

John Fay's "indepth" reporting......check.


Nope. Nothing new here.

[REDREAD]

Well, one new thing is the writers claim that the Reds are only willing to give up one of Homer, Cueto, or Votto.

I can see why the Haren and Bedard talks got nowhere fast. In all honesty, past the "big four", the Reds don't exactly have a lot of guys that get you excited.

I mean, in all honesty, if the Reds were rebuilding, would you guys accept one of Homer/Ceuto/Votto for Harang? Of course not.

I'm glad Jocketty is having input into the pitching problem, although I'm not happy that this report confirms that the Reds are going to resort to bottom feeding because Wayne isn't willing to pay fair value for Bedard.

[GAC]

I'm glad Jocketty is having input into the pitching problem, although I'm not happy that this report confirms that the Reds are going to resort to bottom feeding because Wayne isn't willing to pay fair value for Bedard.

What is fair value, and who determines that? I wouldn't trade Jay Bruce and Bailey or Cueto for Bedard. But that's just me. ;)

[chicoruiz]

Well, one new thing is the writers claim that the Reds are only willing to give up one of Homer, Cueto, or Votto.

I can see why the Haren and Bedard talks got nowhere fast. In all honesty, past the "big four", the Reds don't exactly have a lot of guys that get you excited.

I mean, in all honesty, if the Reds were rebuilding, would you guys accept one of Homer/Ceuto/Votto for Harang? Of course not.

I'm glad Jocketty is having input into the pitching problem, although I'm not happy that this report confirms that the Reds are going to resort to bottom feeding because Wayne isn't willing to pay fair value for Bedard

If your scouts tell you that Bailey or Cueto are the real thing, why wouldn't you make the trade, especially given;

1. You're going to control them for more years at a cheaper price than Bedard, and

2. You're going to pick up some tasty stuff in the package such as Encarnacion, Roenicke, Freel and/or Stubbs.

[traderumor]

I know this is Fay, but hope that there is more on Jocketty's agenda than "finding the next Cris Carpenter," since that is an example of an exceptional case. If that is what the Reds were really looking for, I would hope they were aggressive in their pursuit of Mark Prior and were rejected for reasons other than not putting an impressive package out there for him to consider.

[nate]

Well, one new thing is the writers claim that the Reds are only willing to give up one of Homer, Cueto, or Votto.

I can see why the Haren and Bedard talks got nowhere fast. In all honesty, past the "big four", the Reds don't exactly have a lot of guys that get you excited.

Neither do any of the other teams in baseball. Most of them are lucky to have a "big one".

Ahem.

I'm glad Jocketty is having input into the pitching problem, although I'm not happy that this report confirms that the Reds are going to resort to bottom feeding because Wayne isn't willing to pay fair value for Bedard.

I didn't get that from the report. It says the Reds are trying to get Bedard or Blanton in addition to many other not as good options. Oddly, according to the article, its Jocketty who's more likely to be a "bottom feeder":

Given Jocketty's history, the Reds are more likely to go the free-agent route.

I'm glad Wayne isn't going to mortgage the future for 2 years of Bedard.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I can see why the Haren and Bedard talks got nowhere fast. In all honesty, past the "big four", the Reds don't exactly have a lot of guys that get you excited.

I think Maloney and Pelland could make this team this season. Fransisco, Herrera(part of the Hamilton trade), Frazier, Dorn, Viola, Lecure, Roenicke, and Wood all have my toes tingling. But I see what your saying. The names I mentioned excite us.. perhaps not other teams. We have probably have the best four-some of prospects compared to any organization.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Is Dusty pulling his weight?

I maybe the only one who remembers D-Bake saying he had players calling him wanting to play for him and that he could bring in players. I know he had a lot of communication with Cordero but is that where he stops? Players still currently free agents who played for Dusty:

Catchers
Johnny Estrada (32)
Damian Miller (38)

First basemen
Sean Casey (34) - Type B
Tony Clark (36)
Ryan Klesko (37)
Doug Mientkiewicz (34)

Second basemen
Jose Valentin (38)

Shortstops
Sorry, there's pretty much nothing here.

Third basemen
Morgan Ensberg (32)
Pedro Feliz (33) - Type B
Corey Koskie (35)
Dallas McPherson (27)

Left fielders
Barry Bonds (43) - Type A
Luis Gonzalez (40) - Type B
Kevin Mench (30)
Reggie Sanders (40)
Shannon Stewart (34) - Type B
Brad Wilkerson (31)

Center fielders
Kenny Lofton (41) - Type B
Corey Patterson (28)

Right fielders
Shawn Green (35) - Type B
Kevin Mench (30)
Trot Nixon (34)
Reggie Sanders (40)

DHs
Barry Bonds (43) - Type A
Mike Piazza (39) - Type B
Sammy Sosa (39)
Mike Sweeney (34)

Starting pitchers
Tony Armas Jr. (30)
Kris Benson (32)
Shawn Chacon (30)
Roger Clemens (45)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Josh Fogg (31)
Casey Fossum (30)
Freddy Garcia (32) - Type B
Mark Hendrickson (34)
Livan Hernandez (33) - Type B
Jason Jennings (29)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Brian Lawrence (32)
Jon Lieber (38)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Mike Maroth (30)
Eric Milton (32)
Tomo Ohka (32)
Russ Ortiz (34)
Odalis Perez (31)
John Thomson (34)
Brett Tomko (35)
Steve Trachsel (37)
Jeff Weaver (31)
David Wells (45)
Jaret Wright (32)

Closers
Armando Benitez (35)
Octavio Dotel (32)
Keith Foulke (35)
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
Shawn Chacon (30)
Mark Hendrickson (34)
Jorge Julio (29) - Type B
Jose Mesa (42)
Trever Miller (35) - Type B
Akinori Otsuka (36)
Rudy Seanez (39)
Aaron Sele (38)
Ron Villone (38)

By all means correct me if any are wrong or if I missed one..

[redsmetz]

Regarding players talking to Dusty, I don't think it necessarily means these would be players who have played for him. It could be (presumably Free Agents) players who would like to play for him.

Likewise, we need to remember on some of these trades that sometimes the secondary players that ultimately make a trade a good one. IIRC, Aaron Harang was not the centerpiece when we got him from the A's; it was Joe Valentine. Likewise, I don't think EE was the big piece either, although I think we knew were getting a decent prospect.

I'm still in the camp of not wanting to give up a big number of our top prospects for the here and now. I understand sometimes you need to pull the string on these, but I'd want to know it has a longer term upside for us than just two years.

[MikeS21]

As I said in another thread, I'm not too keen on trading for Bedard, or Blanton, or Haren, or virtually anyone else not named Johan Sanatana if it means losing Johnny Cueto before we see what he can do. If the kid has a mid-90's fastball, a better-than-average slider, and a Mario Soto-like change, Cueto may wind up better than any of those guys.

Bruce is untouchable, as far as I am concerned. And I'd rather keep Votto, unless we are willing to settle for no-power first base men like Sean Casey and Scott Hatteburg for the next five or six years.

Of the "big four," Bailey is the only one I would consider trading.

[Topcat]

If winning the "Division" is more important than long term success then "sure" deal all of the kids. If "reality" is a much better world then consider cost management and long term future more important then stay the course. Seriously I do not have a problem with the Reds dealing prospects or in the case of Hamilton an area of strength we had. But just this one time i pray to Johnny Bench that the Reds stand pat in regard to Cueto and Bailey and Bruce.

Did anyone pick up on that ? Johnny Bench aka god lol.

[traderumor]

Shawn Chacon may be a cheap gamble for a righty bullpen arm/spot starter.

[westofyou]

I can see why the Haren and Bedard talks got nowhere fast. In all honesty, past the "big four", the Reds don't exactly have a lot of guys that get you excited.

This is not as much the Reds issue as it is the O's either.

They reportedly squelched the Roberts deal by asking for the sky.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/brian-roberts-d.html

Brian Roberts Deal Dead?

A trusted emailer wrote in to tell me about a report today from Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000. According to Levine, Brian Roberts is no longer available. The Orioles were apparently asking for Tyler Colvin or Felix Pie plus multiple pitchers, and the Cubs wouldn't do it.

Levine says the Cubs may turn their attention to the Rangers' Marlon Byrd or free agent Jon Lieber.

I think part of being a good trader is not giving up too much when you know you don't have too.

[Kc61]

Sounds to me like teams with pitchers are asking for too much and free agent pitchers are asking for too much. Baseball folks think they have a hot commodity with pitching and are pricing it too high.

At some moment teams and free agent pitchers will start to panic and the prices will come down. At that point the Reds will probably do something.

What surprises me is that the panic hasn't set in yet. It's just a month before spring training and usually things get settled well before spring training.

[lollipopcurve]

I like the Blanton idea if the Reds can get him by giving up one of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez plus lower-level prospectage. I see Blanton as a 200-inning, league average guy who, being from Kentucky, may be willing to stick around a long time. It's reasonable to think he'd be a better value than Bedard -- who is less durable (and more of an injury risk), 2 years from FA, and, according to reports, much more costly in terms of the talent required to get him.

[traderumor]

I like the Blanton idea if the Reds can get him by giving up one of Bailey/Cueto/Volquez plus lower-level prospectage. I see Blanton as a 200-inning, league average guy who, being from Kentucky, may be willing to stick around a long time. It's reasonable to think he'd be a better value than Bedard -- who is less durable (and more of an injury risk), 2 years from FA, and, according to reports, much more costly in terms of the talent required to get him.I agree. I finally peeked at his numbers today, and it looks like his main wart is a possible sophomore slump. That seems like a fair price, and I'd lean toward Bailey if I had my druthers. Blanton looks like a true mid-rotation steady performer.

[Falls City Beer]

Sounds to me like teams with pitchers are asking for too much and free agent pitchers are asking for too much. Baseball folks think they have a hot commodity with pitching and are pricing it too high.

At some moment teams and free agent pitchers will start to panic and the prices will come down. At that point the Reds will probably do something.

What surprises me is that the panic hasn't set in yet. It's just a month before spring training and usually things get settled well before spring training.

Maybe, but I think it depends on the individual pitcher's contract situation.

[RedsManRick]

The Orioles and A's have so perfectly shown the differences between the organizations this year. Angelos wants to make up for years of idiocy by making unreasonable demands, at his own expense if nothing gets done. Beane simply finds a trade that he works for him, makes it, and moves on.

I'm actually surprised that none of the buyers have capitulated yet.

[Falls City Beer]

The Orioles and A's have so perfectly shown the differences between the organizations this year. Angelos wants to make up for years of idiocy by making unreasonable demands, at his own expense if nothing gets done. Beane simply finds a trade that he works for him, makes it, and moves on.

Yep. And people wonder why these two organizations are millennia apart in on the field performance.

Waiting and holding out works well when you lay siege to a city. Not so much in baseball negotiations.

[princeton]

I suspect that Beane is getting better offers than is MacPhail, as the perception is that Beane doesn't have to make trades.

[RedsManRick]

I suspect that Beane is getting better offers than is MacPhail, as the perception is that Beane doesn't have to make trades.

I would argue that the real problem is that MacPhail has to trade with both hands tied behind his back. Were Angelos not micromanaging, Roberts would certainly be a Cub by now and Bedard would probably be gone too. Beane is actually empowered to make decisions.

[princeton]

Were Angelos not micromanaging...

I doubt it. MacPhail would just walk away. He can work anywhere.

micromanaging won't occur until the O's are set to contend again. That'll be a while.

instead, Andy wants to make another Frank Viola trade and hasn't found his Frank Cashen. Yet.

[MartyFan]

I was just thanking God that I am not an Orioles fan...wow...what a nightmare that organization is.

[princeton]

I was just thanking God that I am not an Orioles fan...wow...what a nightmare that organization is.

not much difference between Baltimore and Cincinnati other than the NL Central vs. AL East

[M2]

I doubt it. MacPhail would just walk away. He can work anywhere.

micromanaging won't occur until the O's are set to contend again. That'll be a while.

instead, Andy wants to make another Frank Viola trade and hasn't found his Frank Cashen. Yet.

I'm sure that's what MacPhail wants (though I always thought that deal was overrated on the Twins end due to Kevin Tapani having some fantastic timing with his one notable season), but I doubt he's going to get it. Bedard's a heck of nice pitcher, but Frank Viola had a Cy Young and World Series MVP sitting on his shelf at time he was dealt.

My take is the O's are stalled due to a lack of scouting skills. They don't really know who they want from the B and C prospects piles of their potential trading partners so they just keep asking for the kids who get mentioned in Baseball America.

Beane might have a little more confidence in his ability to mine talent.

[red-in-la]

If winning the "Division" is more important than long term success then "sure" deal all of the kids. If "reality" is a much better world then consider cost management and long term future more important then stay the course. Seriously I do not have a problem with the Reds dealing prospects or in the case of Hamilton an area of strength we had. But just this one time i pray to Johnny Bench that the Reds stand pat in regard to Cueto and Bailey and Bruce.

Did anyone pick up on that ? Johnny Bench aka god lol.

If any of these kids were a Johnny Bench, then of course, it would be silly to trade them. But for the 4 of them to ensure future success, they will ALL have to be Johnny Bench, because by the time they make a real impact, they will be alone.

History would say that by year 3 or 4, which is what it may well take Bailey, Cueto, Maloney and Volquez to develop into a solid rotation, here's who will likely be gone:

Dunn
Griffey
Arroyo
Harang
Phillips
Encarncion
Ross
Valentin
Hatteburg
Gonzalez
Belilse
Weathers

In terms of long term success being laid at the alter of the big 4, Votto and Bruce might already be quite expensive by year 4 or 5.

If Hopper is a keeper, he will also be near his walk year. Same with Keppinger.

Right now, I cannot think of a BIGGER risk then to depend on 4 young pitchers and two young position players ALL turning out to be such stars that they can carry the Reds for years to come. Just ain't gonna happen.

In terms of a sure thing, or closer to one anyway, trade kids that may not contribute THIS year for a pitcher who almost certainly will. One that is 28-16 with a 3.5 ERA for a BAD team in one of the best divisions in baseball.

[traderumor]

If any of these kids were a Johnny Bench, then of course, it would be silly to trade them. But for the 4 of them to ensure future success, they will ALL have to be Johnny Bench, because by the time they make a real impact, they will be alone.

History would say that by year 3 or 4, which is what it may well take Bailey, Cueto, Maloney and Volquez to develop into a solid rotation, here's who will likely be gone:

Dunn
Griffey
Arroyo
Harang
Phillips
Encarncion
Ross
Valentin
Hatteburg
Gonzalez
Belilse
Weathers

In terms of long term success being laid at the alter of the big 4, Votto and Bruce might already be quite expensive by year 4 or 5.

If Hopper is a keeper, he will also be near his walk year. Same with Keppinger.

Right now, I cannot think of a BIGGER risk then to depend on 4 young pitchers and two young position players ALL turning out to be such stars that they can carry the Reds for years to come. Just ain't gonna happen.

In terms of a sure thing, or closer to one anyway, trade kids that may not contribute THIS year for a pitcher who almost certainly will. One that is 28-16 with a 3.5 ERA for a BAD team in one of the best divisions in baseball.That is an odd way to look at dealing A prospects, three of which are likely ready to step in and contribute at the ML level (Bruce, Votto and Volquez). Of course there will be an incredible amount of roster turnover in 4-5 years, but to say that they all need to be the best at their position perennially to carry on alone in the future would mean that the roster turnover over that same period netted nothing of value. It would mean that not one other player developed in the system, no key trades were made, or any free agents signed. However, it is very possible that all could turn out to be key contributors while other pieces fall into place down the road, or that they become a key piece in a future deal. If your scenario plays out, dealing them today or clutching tightly to every last one of the top 5 will not matter.

[redsmetz]

If any of these kids were a Johnny Bench, then of course, it would be silly to trade them. But for the 4 of them to ensure future success, they will ALL have to be Johnny Bench, because by the time they make a real impact, they will be alone.

I don't think Topcat was likening any of these prospects to Johnny Bench. I believe he was pointing out that Johnny Bench is his deity of choice. I think it's because of the large head.

[red-in-la]

That is an odd way to look at dealing A prospects, three of which are likely ready to step in and contribute at the ML level (Bruce, Votto and Volquez). Of course there will be an incredible amount of roster turnover in 4-5 years, but to say that they all need to be the best at their position perennially to carry on alone in the future would mean that the roster turnover over that same period netted nothing of value. It would mean that not one other player developed in the system, no key trades were made, or any free agents signed. However, it is very possible that all could turn out to be key contributors while other pieces fall into place down the road, or that they become a key piece in a future deal. If your scenario plays out, dealing them today or clutching tightly to every last one of the top 5 will not matter.

Huh? Dealing Cueto and Bailey and Votto (I hate to trade Votto) right now for Bedard is likely to allow the quality young players that have already developed win something before they move on.

Of course it is just my humble opinion, but I think the best chance to win something in the next 6-10 years is the next 3......you just cannot have better fortune than the Reds have had recently.

Two rule 5 guys in the same year that actually pan out, Dunn is still here for at least a little while, JR is on the last leg....and you got two pretty good pitchers through trades.....along with getting the best 2B in the league for almost nothing......

Wait until the prospects pitchers really develop and they will only overlap with Harang and Arroyo for a year or so and Dunn, JR and probably Phillips will be gone.

[traderumor]

Huh? Dealing Cueto and Bailey and Votto (I hate to trade Votto) right now for Bedard is likely to allow the quality young players that have already developed win something before they move on.

Of course it is just my humble opinion, but I think the best chance to win something in the next 6-10 years is the next 3......you just cannot have better fortune than the Reds have had recently.

Two rule 5 guys in the same year that actually pan out, Dunn is still here for at least a little while, JR is on the last leg....and you got two pretty good pitchers through trades.....along with getting the best 2B in the league for almost nothing......

Wait until the prospects pitchers really develop and they will only overlap with Harang and Arroyo for a year or so and Dunn, JR and probably Phillips will be gone.OK, but my entire point was that your post has to assume that the roster turnover associated with guys leaving will make the Reds worse or unable to compete. I'm all for trading one or two of the top 5 in the right deal, but it has nothing to do with who the Reds will not have on the team in 4-5 years. I expect and hope for turnover that results in better players than the Reds currently have at any and all positions, considering the Reds have been in stagnation for several years.