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JinAZ
01-15-2008, 04:53 PM
I going to cross-post this on my blog (which isn't letting me do so right now, for some reason), but I thought it'd be interesting to bring it up here as well because there's a bigger/more diverse audience:
---

Tom Tango is currently in the preparatory phase of starting a really interesting project, which he's calling The Clutch Project (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_clutch_project/).

Basically, he's going to ask fans of each team to vote on this question:

If your team is at bat and faces crucial situation in a ballgame, who do you most want to be hitting? In other words, who's your #1 clutch guy?

His plan will be to take the top players from this vote from each team--the clutch guys, the ones who are the best guys to have at the plate in a crucial situation--and compare their 2008 performances in their top-50 crucial situations to the performances of the best overall hitters from each team (probably according to his projections) in their the top-50 crucial situations. The prediction is that if clutchiness exists, clutch hitters should do better in their top-50 crucial situations than the control group of excellent, but not "clutch" players. All decisions on who is to be the top clutchy and top "control" individuals would be made prior to the start of the season, and then we can follow their progress throughout the season.

Tango's still in the preparatory phase, so we'll have to wait before voting. But I wanted to get a feel for who Reds fans might select.

So: in the case of the Reds, the top hitter (control group) would almost certainly be Adam Dunn. But I'm wondering who you folks would consider to be the top clutch guy on the Reds, i.e. who is the guy you'd most want to be at bat in a crucial situation?

Edit: You can choose Dunn if you like. If there's a tie for first, Tango will go with the #2 clutch and #2 control guys (or #3 guys if the #2's are a tie as well), leaving the #1 guy out of the competition entirely.
-j

tripleaaaron
01-15-2008, 05:00 PM
Ken Griffey Jr. for sure, no question about it, it is not even a contest

kyjobu
01-15-2008, 05:02 PM
I agree. It would have to be Griffey.
Followed by Edwin and with the amount of contact they make -- Hatteburg and Keppinger.

JinAZ
01-15-2008, 05:04 PM
I think I'll take a tally of responses, just for fun. To keep things simple, I'm only going to count your #1 guy, so please make that clear even if you want to add a few other guys to your list.

So, here's the tally as of now:

Griffey: 2
Everyone else: 0
:)
-j

Bip Roberts
01-15-2008, 05:48 PM
Not Adam Dunn if there is a RISP thats for sure

Carolina Red
01-15-2008, 06:11 PM
1. Griffey
2. Phillips
3. Hatteburg
4. Keppinger
5. Encarnacion
6. Gonzalez
7. Freel
8. Hopper
9. Votto
10. Arroyo
11. Castro
12. Dunn

SMcGavin
01-15-2008, 06:19 PM
Interesting premise, depends on situation though. With the bases empty and down one in the 9th - I'd take Dunn without a doubt. Two out, man on 3rd, tie game in the 9th - it'd be somebody else. Probably Hatte vs. a RHP and I'm not even sure vs. a LHP.




1. Griffey
2. Phillips
3. Hatteburg
4. Keppinger
5. Encarnacion
6. Gonzalez
7. Freel
8. Hopper
9. Votto
10. Arroyo
11. Castro
12. Dunn

Intelligent response.

mlbfan30
01-15-2008, 06:21 PM
I know what's going to happen in the study, and here is my prediction...

The Clutch guy will have a slight increase in BA, slight decrease in OBP, and slight decrease in SLG.
The best overall hitter will see a slight decrease in AVG, slight increase OBP, and slight increase in SLG.

I don't think "clutch" exists, but pitching around batters do exist. The better hitter will get pitched around more often in high leverage situations, thus increasing OBP. He'll have less to hit, and his AVG will suffer very very sightly, but when pitcher makes a mistake, it'll be a big mistake.

The clutch guy is looking for a hit. The reason why "clutchiness" exists is because people remember hits, not walks. The clutch guy will get more hits, but probably more singles because he's looking to make contact. He won't BB as much and his OBP will go down. Also his SLG is going to decrease because he's looking to make contact.

This is all assuming that the clutch guy who's picked isn't already the best hitter picked, and the clutch guy is a lesser hitter in general. Picking Pujols as a clutch guy doesn't really apply to my theory, since he's already the best hitter.

mlbfan30
01-15-2008, 06:22 PM
Also my clutch guy is EE, while my best hitter is Dunn

Bip Roberts
01-15-2008, 06:36 PM
I refuse to call anyone with a .250 avg a good hitter.

mlbfan30
01-15-2008, 07:04 PM
I refuse to call anyone with a .250 avg a good hitter.

Hitter doesn't mean BA. Hitter means going into the box and taking your plate appearance. Dunn is the guy most likely to not make an out (OBP). And also the guy who has the most power. That is a great combination to have. BB's are not as good as singles, but they are better than outs.

You never said who the Reds best hitter is.....

Bip Roberts
01-15-2008, 07:10 PM
Hitter doesn't mean BA. Hitter means going into the box and taking your plate appearance. Dunn is the guy most likely to not make an out (OBP). And also the guy who has the most power. That is a great combination to have. BB's are not as good as singles, but they are better than outs.

You never said who the Reds best hitter is.....

He might get out the least but hes far from the best at hitting.

The best hitter on the team last year was probably Hatteberg. Doesnt mean hes the best batter but maybe im just picky with my usage of certain terms.

Id say the best hitter would be able to go up to the plate more likely to make contact with no matter what the pitch or where it was.


Edit actually the more i thought about it I would say Keppinger just based off the sample size we saw

JinAZ
01-15-2008, 07:18 PM
Updated tally of Clutch votes:
Griffey: 3
Encarnacion: 1

SMcGavin, while I completely agree that the situation matters when thinking about crucial situations, the game here is to try to pick the single best clutch hitter on the team.

Another way to think about it--if you look at each Reds hitter's 50 most crucial PA's next season (i.e. biggest potential influence on the game), who do you think will do the best in that sample?

Edit: Bip Roberts, are you voting for Keppinger as your clutch hitter?
-j

*BaseClogger*
01-15-2008, 09:16 PM
gimme Adam Dunn, becuase in a "clutch" situation I want the guy least likely to make an out and extend the inning. That man is Adam Dunn...

TC81190
01-15-2008, 09:17 PM
gimme Adam Dunn, becuase in a "clutch" situation I want the guy least likely to make an out and extend the inning. That man is Adam Dunn...

I want the man that's going to drive in the run. Give me...Encarnacion, Phillips, or Griffey, in that order.

*BaseClogger*
01-15-2008, 09:18 PM
Bill James worked on something similar to this recently:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/index.html


Ken Griffey Jr.
Season Avg OBP Slg OPS AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO GIDP
2002 .235 .400 .412 .812 17 4 0 0 1 4 6 5 1
2003 .105 .217 .263 .481 19 2 0 0 1 4 2 7 0
2004 .273 .342 .394 .736 33 9 1 0 1 11 4 3 1
2005 .353 .419 .647 1.066 34 12 1 0 3 22 6 8 0
2006 .233 .313 .550 .863 60 14 4 0 5 27 7 11 2
2007 .205 .319 .462 .781 39 8 1 0 3 12 7 9 2
Totals .243 .337 .485 .823 202 49 7 0 14 80 32 43 6


Adam Dunn
Season Avg OBP Slg OPS AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO GIDP
2002 .196 .439 .478 .918 46 9 1 0 4 16 17 19 0
2003 .189 .412 .459 .871 37 7 1 0 3 8 13 14 0
2004 .275 .393 .686 1.080 51 14 0 0 7 18 9 17 0
2005 .189 .434 .351 .785 37 7 0 0 2 8 15 12 0
2006 .206 .345 .471 .816 68 14 3 0 5 22 14 29 1
2007 .244 .368 .467 .835 45 11 1 0 3 13 10 18 1
Totals .218 .395 .493 .888 284 62 6 0 24 85 78 109 2

redhawk61
01-15-2008, 10:04 PM
Griffey? He hit .244 RISP last year not the type of guy I want up with the game on the line

Brandon? .269 RISP

Edwin .360 RISP

Its a run away Edwin wins hands down

Nasty_Boy
01-15-2008, 11:16 PM
If the situation dictates that the other team must pitch to the batter, I'll take Dunn all day everyday! He's the best at avoiding outs and over the last few years only Big Papi has more walk off HR's.

Bip Roberts
01-15-2008, 11:29 PM
If the situation dictates that the other team must pitch to the batter, I'll take Dunn all day everyday! He's the best at avoiding outs and over the last few years only Big Papi has more walk off HR's.

The best at avoiding outs just means Dunn is the best at allowing a pitcher to pitch around him

JinAZ
01-16-2008, 01:25 AM
Ok, by my count, both here and via PM, we're at:

Griffey: 3
Encarnacion: 3
Dunn: 2
Hatteberg: 1

I could probably have made a poll at the top of this thread, but I don't want people to think they've already voted on this when Tango's ready to accept "official" votes.

@baseclogger, I don't want to derail this thread by getting into it, but if you haven't seen it already, there are some critiques of that James article. Here's Dan Fox's review (http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2007/12/searching-for-mr-clutch.html), and Tom Tango's thread (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/clutching_onto_bill_james/) linking to that review and providing more commentary.

The point of this thread, however, is not to debate whether clutch hitting exists, or (more appropriately) to what degree it exists. The point is to ask folks who they think is the best Reds player to have hitting in the most crucial situations. :)
-j

Bip Roberts
01-16-2008, 01:36 AM
I hope you didnt count me saying Hatteberg is the best hitter on the team as me saying hes teh most clutch

JinAZ
01-16-2008, 02:17 AM
I hope you didnt count me saying Hatteberg is the best hitter on the team as me saying hes teh most clutch

Nope, that was the PM I mentioned. I don't have a vote from you.
-j

Bip Roberts
01-16-2008, 02:25 AM
Well if i was going to vote id probably go edwin just based off the RISP numbers. I always like having a bit of a free swinger at the plate when there are guys in RISP.

TheBigLebowski
01-16-2008, 09:36 AM
1. Griff
2. EE
3. BPhil
4. Hatte
5. Dunn

SMcGavin
01-16-2008, 01:06 PM
Updated tally of Clutch votes:
Griffey: 3
Encarnacion: 1

SMcGavin, while I completely agree that the situation matters when thinking about crucial situations, the game here is to try to pick the single best clutch hitter on the team.

Another way to think about it--if you look at each Reds hitter's 50 most crucial PA's next season (i.e. biggest potential influence on the game), who do you think will do the best in that sample?

Edit: Bip Roberts, are you voting for Keppinger as your clutch hitter?
-j

If I have to pick one guy, it's Dunn.

wlf WV
01-16-2008, 01:55 PM
Keppinger,if you count intangibles,if that is tangible.

JinAZ
01-16-2008, 09:19 PM
Current count (including PM's -- ORG people are more than welcome to send a PM if you want...or, of course, you could induct me over there and I'd post another thread! :p: ):

Encarnacion: 5
Griffey: 4
Dunn: 3
Hatteberg: 1
Keppinger: 1

Keep 'em coming, folks.
-j

JinAZ
01-16-2008, 09:29 PM
Ok, so I just saw that someone did link to this thread over at ORG. 'Course, folks over there are too busy arguing about what clutch means or whether clutch players exist to put themselves out there and vote. :D I only noticed two statements that were clearly votes, one for EDE and the other for Hatteberg.

So, that brings the totals to:

Encarnacion: 6
Griffey: 4
Dunn: 3
Hatteberg: 2
Keppinger: 1

The prediction so far, based on these votes, is that if we look at the 50 most crucial PA's for Eddie and the 50 most crucial PA's for Dunn in 2008, Eddie will perform better. How "better" is defined has yet to be stated, of course, but I'd guess that Tango will look at several measures--WPA, lwts, ops+, etc.

Interesting stuff folks. :)
-j

kfm
01-16-2008, 09:49 PM
What is Dunn's career average with RISP, what is his career average with the bases loaded. If you know the answers to those questions, how can you actually vote for the guy as the most clutch. He avoids outs, how about putting the ball in play or getting a hit, or knocking in the run. I like Dunn, but give me Edwin, Keppinger and Phillips. I will take EE first hands down. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn and I don't get the Dunn haters, but this sabermatrics stuff doesn't change the fact that if you have RISP, he is about as bad as it gets on the Reds.

Bip Roberts
01-16-2008, 09:51 PM
What is Dunn's career average with RISP, what is his career average with the bases loaded. If you know the answers to those questions, how can you actually vote for the guy as the most clutch. He avoids outs, how about putting the ball in play or getting a hit, or knocking in the run. I like Dunn, but give me Edwin, Keppinger and Phillips. I will take EE first hands down. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn and I don't get the Dunn haters, but this sabermatrics stuff doesn't change the fact that if you have RISP, he is about as bad as it gets on the Reds.

Exactly my thoughts on Dunn. With RISP give me the guy with the higher average and lower OBP and lower slugging than the guy who gets out less with the .250 average. Give me some more contact and less patience. I dont want a guy swinging at everything just because there is people on base but id rather the guy go up there trying to get the hit instead of just trying to not get out.

mlbfan30
01-16-2008, 10:45 PM
Do you even know what WPA is?

Hitting with RISP does increase WPA, but it's not the only thing. WPA basically says that batting in RISP up by 3 in the 3rd inning is less important than hitting in a tied game in the 9th with no one on.

WPA is the win probablilty. Each PA gives a certain impact on the WPA depending on game situation, inning, outs, and score. Late innings, close games, etc will increase WPA even if no one is on. You people need to understand the measuring tool and not just say... Dunn can't hit with RISP so he's not clutch...when that's not what WPA measures.

Nasty_Boy
01-17-2008, 02:38 AM
Look at Dunn's OBP with RISP. It's late and I don't feel like looking up the exact numbers, but until mid/late August Dunn didn't have a hit with the bases loaded but he still had the most RBIs with the bases loaded. He drove in runs with walks, sac flies, ground outs, and HBP. And if the pitcher is pitching around Dunn and not giving him anything to hit, how is that his fault? Get him some protection or move him in the order so his OBP can be better utilized.

Bip Roberts
01-17-2008, 07:49 AM
Dunn OBP with RISP equals bases loaded and still no runs cross the plate quickly followed by a pop out and or a double play by someone behind him. The guy is a horse, he can check swing a double yet he almost refuses to unless he can absolutely crush a ball

Edd Roush
01-17-2008, 10:50 AM
While I'm sick of snide remarks made of Dunn's inability to hit, that is the subject of hundreds of other threads and certainly not this one.

My vote certainly goes to Griffey. While I may not like that his defense is deteriorating, there is not another guy on this ball club who is better at knocking in that crucial run and wants to win more than him.

Sean_CaseyRules
01-17-2008, 11:45 AM
What aboue Javy? I guess everyone forgot about his heriocs for the last couple years...

Bip Roberts
01-17-2008, 01:01 PM
What aboue Javy? I guess everyone forgot about his heriocs for the last couple years...

Hes a pinch hitter most of the time so of course its going to seem like hes more clutch than others. He does get a lot of big hits for us though

*BaseClogger*
01-17-2008, 02:02 PM
What aboue Javy? I guess everyone forgot about his heriocs for the last couple years...

can I vote for Joe Randa?

757690
01-17-2008, 02:34 PM
This project is not set up to determine if clutch hitting exists, but just if the common perception of clutch hitting is consistent with the facts. That is why Tango is having fans pick who they think the clutch hitter on their team is.
This really should have no impact on the question, "is there such a thing as a clutch hitter." Since there could easily be clutch hitters who the fans don't perceive as clutch hitters.

Considering the lack of unaminity on this board, I would say that the results for the Reds will be rather meaningless. I am thinking that there are only a handful of hitters that everyone thinks of as a clutch hitter (Ortiz being the best example), and those are the ones that this project should focus on.

JinAZ
01-17-2008, 03:10 PM
While I'm sick of snide remarks made of Dunn's inability to hit, that is the subject of hundreds of other threads and certainly not this one.


That's actually the most interesting thing about this project. We can all look at past historical performance "in the clutch"...but does that tell us anything about what hitters will do in the future? That's always been the essence of the clutch hitter debates.

Right now, voters here (thus far) project that either EDE or Griffey will do better in their 50 most crucial situations than Dunn will, despite the fact that Dunn's overall offensive numbers project to be more impressive. It's going to be really interesting to see if this bears itself out.


What aboue Javy? I guess everyone forgot about his heriocs for the last couple years...

Just to be clear, is that a vote for Javy?


can I vote for Joe Randa?

Sorry, 2008 Reds only!


This project is not set up to determine if clutch hitting exists, but just if the common perception of clutch hitting is consistent with the facts. That is why Tango is having fans pick who they think the clutch hitter on their team is.
This really should have no impact on the question, "is there such a thing as a clutch hitter." Since there could easily be clutch hitters who the fans don't perceive as clutch hitters.

Considering the lack of unaminity on this board, I would say that the results for the Reds will be rather meaningless. I am thinking that there are only a handful of hitters that everyone thinks of as a clutch hitter (Ortiz being the best example), and those are the ones that this project should focus on.


You can also think of the Reds' results as a test of Dunn's unclutchiness, as perceived by many fans.

What makes this different from anything else that's been done before is that it is making a priori predictions before the data are even in, as opposed to trying to do tests on data that are already in. It's going to be pretty fun to watch the data come in over the course of the season.

Regardless, the actual decision on the clutch explanation as tested in this project will not lie in the performances within teams, but in the aggregate data for all 30 players in the clutch and unclutch groups.

---------
I counted one more vote for Griffey above, which puts the unofficial tally at:
Encarnacion: 6
Griffey: 5
Dunn: 3
Hatteberg: 2
Keppinger: 1

Don't forget, these aren't official votes. I hope everyone goes over a votes once Tom Tango starts collecting the official information. I'll be posting about it here and on my blog when that happens.
-j

JinAZ
01-17-2008, 03:54 PM
Another interesting "test" on the clutch front:

Phil Birnbaum (http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2008/01/i-will-bet-real-money-that-you-cant.html) is willing to bet any reasonable sum of real money that you cannot pick a player, set of players, etc, that will improve more in the clutch than any other player, set of players, etc.

So, if you are positive that EDE is a clutch god and Dunn is worthless in the clutch (and you get to define how "clutch" will be determined--RISP, pLI, whatever), Phil will take that bet. If you just want to bet that Dunn is worthless in the clutch, I think Phil will take that bet too--you could even single Dunn out and pit the change in his performance in the clutch against how the rest of the league's performance changes the same clutch situations.

Just thought it was interesting--and I hope someone takes him up on it, as it'd be a blast to follow over the course of the season. :)
-j

texasdave
01-17-2008, 04:28 PM
If your team is at bat and faces crucial situation in a ballgame, who do you most want to be hitting? In other words, who's your #1 clutch guy?

I am not so sure that the question posed properly addresses the issue of which player is most clutch. It is an interesting one nonetheless. If Player A has an overall OPS of .950 and drops to an OPS of .850 in 'clutch' situations and Player B has an overall OPS of .750 and jumps to an OPS of .825 in these same situations - which one is really more clutch? Player A performs more poorly than he normally would and Player B performs better than he normally would. And even though Player A's 'clutch' OPS is higher than Player B's, I would still suggest that Player B actually is the more 'clutch' of the two. JMO.

I wonder how Tango is going to treat intentional walks. At first glance it would seem to me that intentional walks are often-times empty walks in a 'clutch' situation. We can all think of situations where an additional runner on base (via an intentional walk) will have no bearing on the outcome of the game - scorewise. I wonder how often this actually happens. Perhaps less than I think it does.

Anyhow, I compared the Reds' hitters overall OPS with their 'clutch and late' OPS from 2007. I also threw in the Reds' team totals and the National League's totals. I used the 'clutch and late' statistics from baseball-reference.com. They define 'clutch and late' as follows:
Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

Here is how things shook out:



PLAYER OPS-O OPS-C CLTCH%
VALENTN 0.715 0.922 29.0%
HATTE 0.868 0.964 11.1%
HOPPER 0.759 0.772 1.7%
NL-07 0.757 0.725 -4.2%
PHILLPS 0.816 0.759 -7.0%
FREEL 0.655 0.606 -7.5%
REDS-07 0.771 0.666 -13.6%
DUNN 0.940 0.811 -13.7%
HAMLTN 0.922 0.780 -15.4%
KEPPNGR 0.877 0.683 -22.1%
EDE 0.794 0.607 -23.6%
GONZO 0.793 0.602 -24.1%
ROSS 0.670 0.443 -33.9%
GRIFFEY 0.868 0.522 -39.9%


OPS-O = Overall OPS
OPS-C = 'Clutch and Late' OPS
CLTCH% = (OPS-C - OPS-O)/(OPS-O)

The league as a whole performed - OPS-wise - just over 4% more poorly in these situations than it did in overall situations. The Reds in 2007 fared even worse. They dropped off around 13.6%.
As far as players go, the Latin Love Machine excelled in these situations! Hatte also did quite well and (the much-maligned) Norris Hopper did fractionally better. Every other Reds' hitter who found themselves at the plate a decent amount of times last year performed more poorly in 'clutch and late' situations than they did in did overall. Not exactly a recipe for success. Adam Dunn performed just about on par as the team did as a whole. The two front-runners (so far) as voted on by Redszone members - Griffey and EdE - stunk it up in 'clutch and late' situations in 2007.
EdE's OPS-C dropped close to 200 points and Griffey's OPS-C plummeted nearly 350 points.

Mark me down as a vote for Scott Hatteberg please.

Stephenk29
01-17-2008, 04:45 PM
It really depends on the situation of course. Hard to say really.

I've always been biased to Hatteberg in key situations, but if Dunn's leading off the ninth I'm pretty darn happy. People made a good argument for EE as well.

Ill go with Hatteberg in the end.

JinAZ
01-17-2008, 05:01 PM
I am not so sure that the question posed properly addresses the issue of which player is most clutch. It is an interesting one nonetheless. If Player A has an overall OPS of .950 and drops to an OPS of .850 in 'clutch' situations and Player B has an overall OPS of .750 and jumps to an OPS of .825 in these same situations - which one is really more clutch? Player A performs more poorly than he normally would and Player B performs better than he normally would. And even though Player A's 'clutch' OPS is higher than Player B's, I would still suggest that Player B actually is the more 'clutch' of the two. JMO.


In this case, for Tango's project, you'd want to go with player A--that's still the #1 guy to have in a crucial situation, decreased performance or not.

For Phil Birnbaum's bet, though, you'd want to go with player B. So there's an option for both "clutch" definitions. Furthermore, since we knows the rules in both cases, we can adjust our predictions accordingly.

In Tango's introduction for his project, he talks about players with roughly equivalent overall numbers. Ortiz and Ramirez, Beltran and Wright, etc. But in the case of the Reds, I think a lot of fans (though clearly not all) would predict that Dunn's performance in the clutch will actually be worse than a lot of other Reds hitters--which is why I think we're seeing relatively few votes for Dunn despite his clear lead in overall performance projections.


I wonder how Tango is going to treat intentional walks. At first glance it would seem to me that intentional walks are often-times empty walks in a 'clutch' situation. We can all think of situations where an additional runner on base (via an intentional walk) will have no bearing on the outcome of the game - scorewise. I wonder how often this actually happens. Perhaps less than I think it does.

Tango said today that he is "not going to just use WPA, etc. I’ll present the entire spectrum of data."

He's said elsewhere that he's sensitive to the issue of walks (intentional or otherwise) not being particularly valuable in some clutch situations (like man on third, two outs), and I'm sure he'll address that in his analysis.


Mark me down as a vote for Scott Hatteberg please.

Done! I also got Stephenk29's vote for Hatteberg. He's surging!

Informal Tally:
Encarnacion: 6
Griffey: 5
Hatteberg: 4
Dunn: 3
Keppinger: 1
-j

gedred69
01-17-2008, 10:22 PM
Good God! So much citing of WPA, RSVP, RIP, ABC, XYZ! It's simple. Who delivers in the late innings of the game with a hit and/or doesn't choke/exacts the walk? Seems like EE is most likely to me.

JinAZ
01-18-2008, 01:41 AM
Good God! So much citing of WPA, RSVP, RIP, ABC, XYZ! It's simple. Who delivers in the late innings of the game with a hit and/or doesn't choke/exacts the walk? Seems like EE is most likely to me.

So, that's a vote for EDE? I'm pretty sure it is, so I'm adding it to the 'ole tally.


Current Unofficial Tally:
Encarnacion: 7
Griffey: 5
Hatteberg: 4
Dunn: 3
Keppinger: 1
-j

Sean_CaseyRules
01-28-2008, 03:10 PM
My vote was for Javy!

Degenerate39
01-28-2008, 03:34 PM
I'd have to go with:
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey

JinAZ
03-24-2008, 04:40 PM
This was picked up in ORG, but I wanted to mention that this project is now officially underway. Head here to vote on the most clutch Reds:
http://tangotiger.net/clutch/cin.shtml

Remember, in this case, you're voting for the guy on the Reds team that you most want to be at bat in a crucial game situation. You can vote for more than one player if you wish (or, vote down some players), but all you need to do is vote for one player.

The more votes there are, the better this project will work! So please do vote!
-j

JinAZ
04-04-2008, 08:55 PM
Voting is closed, and the project is alive!

Go here to see the current scoreboard comparing the "clutch" and "unclutch" groups:
http://www.fangraphs.com/clutch.aspx?type=0

And go here to read Tom Tango's piece in the Hardball Times discussing the project and voting results:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/with-the-game-on-the-line-i-want/

As expected, Adam Dunn did not win the fan vote as the guy who fans most wanted at the plate in a key situation, despite being the projected best overall hitter on the team. Should be fun to watch he and Edwin Encarnacion battle it out all year!
-Justin

LouisvilleCARDS
04-04-2008, 10:43 PM
Dunn is a weird one, I don't care what the numbers say - everyone remembers that ridiculous streak he had where he didn't get a single sac fly in forever. He's do or die, he'll either get you a HR, a walk, or strikeout. There's not much middle ground.

757690
04-05-2008, 12:49 AM
How does Tango define a clutch situation?
Bill James just came out with a complete re-working of what a clutch situation is, one that weights each situation depending on how important it is. Basically, some at bats with RISP in late innings are more important than others, depending on the score, the teams, the date, the standings, etc.
Just wondering what standard Tango is using for this project. Regardless, the results will be interesting.

JinAZ
04-05-2008, 02:34 AM
How does Tango define a clutch situation?
Bill James just came out with a complete re-working of what a clutch situation is, one that weights each situation depending on how important it is. Basically, some at bats with RISP in late innings are more important than others, depending on the score, the teams, the date, the standings, etc.
Just wondering what standard Tango is using for this project. Regardless, the results will be interesting.

Tango uses Leverage. It's described in detail here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations
Pretty straightforward. It's basically the weighted (by probability) mean of the effects of all potential plays on WPA for a given at bat, relative to a the league average WPA situation (defined as 1.0).

In this case, I think any situation with a leverage over 2.0 (i.e. twice as important as the average game situation) counts in this contest.

I haven't seen James's system (he alluded to it in the THT Annual but didn't go into details beyond what you indicated), but Tom's Leverage system has been reasonably well-vetted at this point and works very well. I think the biggest difference between James's system and Tango's, beyond the methodology as I'm sure James isn't using win expectancy per se, is that James has that adjustment for standings and schedule date. Tango's system treats each game as its own entity with respect to leverage.
-j

Sean_CaseyRules
07-07-2008, 01:12 AM
As far as players go, the Latin Love Machine excelled in these situations! .


Looks like Ol' SCR was right about voting for Javy!