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dougdirt
01-18-2008, 01:13 PM
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7060

Below is all free content. If you want more, you have to pay for it.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jay Bruce, CF
2. Homer Bailey, RHP
3. Joey Votto, 1B/OF
Four-Star Prospects
4. Johnny Cueto, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Todd Frazier, INF
6. Devin Mesoraco, C
7. Drew Stubbs, CF
8. Matt Maloney, LHP
9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
10. Juan Francisco, 3B
Two-Star Prospects
11. Neftali Soto, SS

Just Missing: Josh Roenicke, RHP; Daryl Thompson, RHP; Brandon Waring, 3B

1. Jay Bruce, CF
DOB: 4/3/87
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Westbrook HS (TX)
2007 Stats: .325/.379/.586 at High A (67 G); .333/.405/.652 at Double-A (16 G); .305/.358/.567 at Triple-A (50 G)

Year In Review: After outshining prospects like Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton to win Midwest League MVP honors in 2006, Bruce went from High-A to the cusp of the majors in the blink of an eye, mashing at every level along the way.
The Good: Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He's a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.
The Bad: Anything here is just nitpicking. He's anything but a hacker, but he does often swing at pitches he'd be better served by letting go by. While he'll likely begin his career in center, most believe he'll move to a corner once he fills out.
Fun Fact: In the first three innings of Triple-A games, Bruce went 5-for-55 (.091) without a home run. Afterwards, he hit .394 with 11 home runs in 132 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: A perennial All-Star and MVP candidate. A true superstar in the mold of a healthy Larry Walker.
Timetable: The Reds dealt Josh Hamilton to the Rangers in order to open up a spot for Bruce in the big-league lineup. The future of the Reds franchise begins now.

RedsManRick
01-18-2008, 02:26 PM
Just one quote from the pay portion, hopefully it won't get me in trouble.



The Reds system may be top-heavy, but man, what a top it is, and what comes after gives the club a decent shot at remaining a solid organization after this big front three lose their eligibility next year.

Aronchis
01-18-2008, 02:31 PM
It will depend on what the Buckley guys do. 2008 will be graduation year.

2009 will depend how the lower level guys did in 2008. Are Mesoraco,Lotz and Soto developing? How about the college guys are Stubbs,Watson,Val,Dorn and Turner progressing well?

BoydsOfSummer
01-18-2008, 02:47 PM
With my 3000th post I'd like to thank all the little people. Never has one man used so much bandwidth to say so little ('cept maybe Krono). I figured my IsoPCG (Isolated post/good content ratio--threw that in for you metric goobers) is roughly .01. Which means I've made only 30 worthy posts. Some will say less. Here's to 3000 more. I won't be any better but it means I'll have another 4years of the best damn Reds talk anywhere.

Oh yeah...the future is looking good down on the farm!

*BaseClogger*
01-18-2008, 03:17 PM
With my 3000th post I'd like to thank all the little people. Never has one man used so much bandwidth to say so little ('cept maybe Krono). I figured my IsoPCG (Isolated post/good content ratio--threw that in for you metric goobers) is roughly .01. Which means I've made only 30 worthy posts. Some will say less. Here's to 3000 more. I won't be any better but it means I'll have another 4years of the best damn Reds talk anywhere.

Oh yeah...the future is looking good down on the farm!

I'm happy you could share your 3000th post on the Minor League Board so that us SunDeck'rs could bask in its glory :D

chicoruiz
01-18-2008, 04:38 PM
Interesting thing about the Goldstein article- no mention of Travis Wood whatsoever. He apparently considers the likes of Waring and Thompson to be better prospects.

mlbfan30
01-18-2008, 04:48 PM
Goldstein seems to be very low on Cueto. He mentions the top 3 prospects in his into and seems to think Cueto is just an extra. According to him Cueto's perfect world projection is a solid number 3. I'd say that's a little low.
He says he has "pure power stuff" with a plus hard slider second pitch. His changeup varies start to start with above average with late sink. Also his command and control are above average. It would seem that Cueto would be viewed as a 5-star with 3 plus pitches and great control. Yet he says he thinks Cueto isn't big enough to be a longterm starter. He thinks Cueto will not be able to handle 200 IP, even though Cueto has an injury free history. Great command would make you believe he pitch deep into games and keep his pitch count low. Goldstein rates Volquez ahead of Cueto and .

I really think that his size shouldn't be as much of an issue as it's been. A smaller, slightly larger framed guy should have a more repeatable and mechanically better deliver than a tall lanky guy, thus leading to less injurys. The pitchers stuff, mechanics, control, (all the actual pitching aspects) should matter, not whether or not he was fortunate to be tall.

dougdirt
01-18-2008, 04:59 PM
Height does matter in pitching. The plane put on the ball coming out of a guy who is tall is going to be quite a bit different than that of a guy who is 5'10". I don't think its something to hold against Cueto really, but it is something to think about.

chicoruiz
01-18-2008, 05:04 PM
I wouldn't call him "very low" on Cueto...he's ranked as a four-star prospect, which would make him the #1 prospect in a number of organizations.

mlbfan30
01-18-2008, 07:27 PM
Here are some 5 star pitchers

Fautino de los Santos
Rick Porcello
Nick Adenhart
Joba Chamberlain
David Price
Wade Davis
Neftali Feliz
Jarrod Parker
Clay Buchholz
Homer Bailey

That's at least 10 pitchers ranked ahead of Cueto, so far. Not only is Goldsteins list incomplete, but who knows how many 4-star guys he would rank ahead of Cueto.

Cueto might end up in the top 25-30 pitchers by the time he's done, which is very low.

The lowest overall rating Cueto has received in a top prospect list as 47th at MILB.com
In that, there were about 20 pitchers ahead of him.

In the major lists, Cueto has....
x pitchers ahead - source
8 - The Diamond Cutter
6 - Mound Talk Community
5 - Mound Talk
6 Project Prospect
9 - Scouting Book
6 - Sickels Community Prospect

The point is that There are a bunch of ratings where Cueto is around the 8-10th best pitching prospect in baseball, while Goldstein and MLB think he's more like in the 20s. That is considered very low.

OnBaseMachine
01-18-2008, 07:44 PM
I would rank Cueto as a five-star along with Bailey, Bruce, and Votto. Todd Frazier would also be a four-star in my book.

BoydsOfSummer
01-18-2008, 10:58 PM
I'm happy you could share your 3000th post on the Minor League Board so that us SunDeck'rs could bask in its glory :D

I did want to thank the little people. :p:

TOBTTReds
01-18-2008, 11:05 PM
I did want to thank the little people. :p:

We could celebrate together!

dougdirt
01-19-2008, 12:37 AM
Here are some 5 star pitchers

Fautino de los Santos
Rick Porcello
Nick Adenhart
Joba Chamberlain
David Price
Wade Davis
Neftali Feliz
Jarrod Parker
Clay Buchholz
Homer Bailey

That's at least 10 pitchers ranked ahead of Cueto, so far. Not only is Goldsteins list incomplete, but who knows how many 4-star guys he would rank ahead of Cueto.

Cueto might end up in the top 25-30 pitchers by the time he's done, which is very low.

The lowest overall rating Cueto has received in a top prospect list as 47th at MILB.com
In that, there were about 20 pitchers ahead of him.

In the major lists, Cueto has....
x pitchers ahead - source
8 - The Diamond Cutter
6 - Mound Talk Community
5 - Mound Talk
6 Project Prospect
9 - Scouting Book
6 - Sickels Community Prospect

The point is that There are a bunch of ratings where Cueto is around the 8-10th best pitching prospect in baseball, while Goldstein and MLB think he's more like in the 20s. That is considered very low.

Nick Adenhart and 2 High Schoolers who have thrown a combined 0 professional innings are 5 star guys but Cueto isn't? Neftali Feliz threw 42 innings last year and only 15 of those came in A ball.... Feliz was ranked 13th in the Braves system (now in the Rangers system) by John Sickels and given a C+ as a guy with a great arm but really far away from the majors.

lollipopcurve
01-19-2008, 11:09 AM
With my 3000th post I'd like to thank all the little people. Never has one man used so much bandwidth to say so little ('cept maybe Krono). I figured my IsoPCG (Isolated post/good content ratio--threw that in for you metric goobers) is roughly .01. Which means I've made only 30 worthy posts. Some will say less. Here's to 3000 more. I won't be any better but it means I'll have another 4years of the best damn Reds talk anywhere.

This post betrays the poster's very high ceiling. Could it all come together in 08?

TC81190
01-19-2008, 02:04 PM
I would rank Cueto as a five-star along with Bailey, Bruce, and Votto. Todd Frazier would also be a four-star in my book.

Same.

Screwball
01-19-2008, 03:34 PM
Fun Fact: In the first three innings of Triple-A games, Bruce went 5-for-55 (.091) without a home run. Afterwards, he hit .394 with 11 home runs in 132 at-bats.


I found this to be very interesting. Not only does he have a boatload of talent, but it seems Jay has the ability to make in-game adjustments (very) successfully. That should serve him well when he faces ML pitchers he's never seen before.

Matt700wlw
01-19-2008, 05:49 PM
So, will Bruce have a Hamilton-esque spring and completely knock our socks off?

Highlifeman21
01-20-2008, 02:46 PM
So, will Bruce have a Hamilton-esque spring and completely knock our socks off?

I just hope that the bar hasn't already been set too high for Bruce. As a rookie, if he OPS's North of .800, that'll do for me. If he plays in 85+ games, I'll be happy with that as well. I just hope we're being realistic from the onset about Jay Bruce.

gedred69
01-20-2008, 03:03 PM
I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

RedsManRick
01-20-2008, 04:20 PM
I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

I agree. All the guy has done is hit. I could see him going .900+ OPS in AA this year and jumping up to the top 5 on next year's rankings.

OnBaseMachine
01-20-2008, 05:25 PM
I decided to go ahead and buy a subscription to BP after reading the Jay Bruce writeup. It seems they are pretty high on Edinson Volquez and Billy Bray. Goldstein says Volquez should fit in fine in the Reds rotation and says he still has star potential. He also lists Bray as the Reds 8th best player under age 25 and notes that he already is effective against lefties, but also has a chance at being a setup man down the road.

And he is still very high on Homer Bailey. To paraphrase: Bailey is one the few pitchers in baseball with two plus-plus pitches in addition to an average changeup with good deception. Ceiling is a true #1 starter.

He also likes Pedro Viola, stating he has a power arm and could develop into a valuable bullpen arm.

Highlifeman21
01-20-2008, 05:25 PM
I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

Maybe those that do the ranking think he needs to do it in consecutive years?

That's the only thing I can think of.

mth123
01-20-2008, 06:13 PM
I decided to go ahead and buy a subscription to BP after reading the Jay Bruce writeup. It seems they are pretty high on Edinson Volquez and Billy Bray. Goldstein says Volquez should fit in fine in the Reds rotation and says he still has star potential. He also lists Bray as the Reds 8th best player under age 25 and notes that he already is effective against lefties, but also has a chance at being a setup man down the road.

And he is still very high on Homer Bailey. To paraphrase: Bailey is one the few pitchers in baseball with two plus-plus pitches in addition to an average changeup with good deception. Ceiling is a true #1 starter.

He also likes Pedro Viola, stating he has a power arm and could develop into a valuable bullpen arm.

I think Goldstein is pretty wise. So many of these ranking websites are too easily influenced by the most recent stats with little or no differentiation due to other factors. Bailey is a 21 year old kid who had some bad outings in the big leagues at a young age.So what? Real baseball men and good evaluators can tell the difference between that and real decline. Many seem to be saying that Bailey has lost a lot of value since last spring, but I don't believe it for a minute. The rush to dump him by many is kind of amazing to me.

I think the same phenomenon has elevated Cueto to levels beyond realistic to fill "the void" left by Bailey's "fall." Cueto is rated as a 4 star prospect with a projection to become a solid number 3 and that is very good. The Reds have been searching high and low in vain to acquire a solid number 3. Goldstein rightfully did not elevate him above Bailey at this point. Another season with Bailey struggling and Cueto excelling could change things, but flip flopping them now is a knee jerk reaction IMO.

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 12:26 AM
If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average? That seems kinda low to me...

Superdude
01-21-2008, 12:55 AM
If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average?

A 4.50 ERA would ideally come out of the #4-5 spot. I honestly don't think anyone quite knows how to project Cueto yet. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this guy just judged Cueto and then dropped him back on the theoretical rotation due to height. His stuff, command, and performance have all been very ace like, so I don't see why we should rule out anything for Cueto yet. Even Goldstein said he could be a bit more than a #3, so my guess is that Cueto is a bit of a wait and see type of guy.

bucksfan2
01-21-2008, 11:33 AM
If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average? That seems kinda low to me...

I think people have become too enamored with placing #'s on starting pitchers. A #1-5 pitcher really depends on each individual team rather than a broader ranking. If Cueto becomes a very good pitcher but there are two better pitchers above him then that is a very good thing. But if Cueto doesn't devlop into what we all hope he does but he is the 3rd best pitcher on the staff then that is a bad thing.

11larkin11
01-21-2008, 01:51 PM
I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

I'm guessing its probably his abysmal lefty-righty splits. I know he hit .100 against lefties in AA, I think it was quite bad in A+ too.