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AmarilloRed
01-18-2008, 07:25 PM
Arbitration numbers for Belisle, Phillips

Today was the day arbitration numbers were filed:

The Reds filed $1 million for Matt Belisle. He countered at $1.65 million.

The Reds filed $2.7 million for Brandon Phillips. He countered at $4.2 million.

Belisle made $390,000 last year; Phillips $407,000. Arbitration is baseball's form of the lottery -- expect every player who is offered it hits the jackpot.



Philips will now be paid more equitably for his services last year. Belisle will be paid what a back-end starter should be paid.

Z-Fly
01-18-2008, 09:22 PM
Arbitration numbers for Belisle, Phillips

Today was the day arbitration numbers were filed:

The Reds filed $1 million for Matt Belisle. He countered at $1.65 million.

The Reds filed $2.7 million for Brandon Phillips. He countered at $4.2 million.

Belisle made $390,000 last year; Phillips $407,000. Arbitration is baseball's form of the lottery -- expect every player who is offered it hits the jackpot.

They are still not getting paid anywear near what they would get on the free agent market so it is well worth it.


Philips will now be paid more equitably for his services last year. Belisle will be paid what a back-end starter should be paid.

They are still not getting paid anywear near what they would get on the free agent market so it is well worth it.

reds2221
01-18-2008, 10:35 PM
even if the reds win, the players still make MUCH more money than last year

Bip Roberts
01-18-2008, 10:44 PM
Belisle at 1.65 million isnt bad and the reds are signing phillips to a long term deal after next season no doubt about it.... i think

DannyB
01-18-2008, 11:43 PM
I bet both will have contracts before their respective hearings.

GoReds33
01-19-2008, 12:20 AM
Phillips would defenitly win if it goes to a hearing. He's worth more probably. I don't know where to stand on Belisle. He's a good young pitcher, but I don't see the potential. This should be his last year if he doesn't straighten out. Besides, he stiffed me for an autograph at RedsFest. That really made me mad.

JinAZ
01-19-2008, 12:24 AM
If my numbers (http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/01/arbitration-battles-phillips-and.html) are right, both players should win their hearings if they have decent representation.

But who knows? Krivsky's supposed to be pretty good with these kinds of negotiations, right?
-j

gedred69
01-19-2008, 02:12 AM
I would counter Phillips with more than he is asking for, with the stipulation of a parley for a long term contract. Yeah, he's that good. Belisle, give him what he wants now, and if he somehow turns into the pitcher he has sometimes shown the brillance of being, sign him again. Keep it at home...

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 01:48 PM
I would counter Phillips with more than he is asking for, with the stipulation of a parley for a long term contract. Yeah, he's that good. Belisle, give him what he wants now, and if he somehow turns into the pitcher he has sometimes shown the brillance of being, sign him again. Keep it at home...

We still have Phillips under control for another three years, and when his FA year comes up he will be going on 30 years old and leaving his prime. I see no need for a long-term contract for Phillips knowing that he will be given a contract that much overrates his value. At the very least, lets wait and see. I would rather see the extra money you propose giving him now to Derek Lowe next offseason...

mroby85
01-19-2008, 02:16 PM
give phillips the LTC, 30 is no where near out of the prime, thats just beginning it for a lot of players.

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 02:20 PM
give phillips the LTC, 30 is no where near out of the prime, thats just beginning it for a lot of players.

I'm going to have to disagree that 30 is the beginning of a prime for a lot of players. How did you come to that conclusion?

Vada Pinson Fan
01-19-2008, 03:31 PM
We still have Phillips under control for another three years, and when his FA year comes up he will be going on 30 years old and leaving his prime. I see no need for a long-term contract for Phillips knowing that he will be given a contract that much overrates his value. At the very least, lets wait and see. I would rather see the extra money you propose giving him now to Derek Lowe next offseason...


At this point, Derrek Lowe is the pitcher I'm hoping the Reds flat out target after the '08 season. So saving the money this year from signing Brandon Phillips longterm is reasonable, I think the Reds would save more in the long run if you sign Phillips to "today's" prices/contracts perhaps for 5 -6years. Sure it's a risk but Phillips is one player I take that risk on. Being one of only two 2nd basemen (Soriano the other) to ever be a 30-30 guy, I definitely don't wait for him to break the bank- even while in his arbitration years.

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 03:35 PM
At this point, Derrek Lowe is the pitcher I'm hoping the Reds flat out target after the '08 season. So saving the money this year from signing Brandon Phillips longterm is reasonable, I think the Reds would save more in the long run if you sign Phillips to "today's" prices/contracts perhaps for 5 -6years. Sure it's a risk but Phillips is one player I take that risk on. Being one of only two 2nd basemen (Soriano the other) to ever be a 30-30 guy, I definitely don't wait for him to break the bank- even while in his arbitration years.

I put Phillip's value at about $8 million. If we can sign him to a 5 yr/$40 million contract right now I guess I'd do it, because that would only buy out 2 FA years, and he would be about 32 when the contract runs up...

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 03:39 PM
I think Phillips has too big of an ego to accept a lot of deals he would be presented with

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 03:40 PM
I think Phillips has too big of an ego to accept a lot of deals he would be presented with

well then tell him to shove it and wait three years until he is FA eliglible

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 03:44 PM
well then tell him to shove it and wait three years until he is FA eliglible

Yea listening to him on his radio parade around Redsfest with him saying if they dont offer me a long term deal ill feel like its a slap in the face kinda rubbed me the wrong way.

He has an ego that might get in the way.

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 03:48 PM
Yea listening to him on his radio parade around Redsfest with him saying if they dont offer me a long term deal ill feel like its a slap in the face kinda rubbed me the wrong way.

He has an ego that might get in the way.

He's 27, and his career was over until we gave him a second chance. I think the Reds FO deserves his respect and he should go out and produce a little longer before we give him a LTC...

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 03:55 PM
He's 27, and his career was over until we gave him a second chance. I think the Reds FO deserves his respect and he should go out and produce a little longer before we give him a LTC...

Yep totally agree. Have another nice season being a gold glover stealing bases and having a season even remotely like last year at the plate and I'm sure the FO will be giving the LTC a major look.

FlightRick
01-19-2008, 07:23 PM
I put Phillip's value at about $8 million.

Just out of curiousity, what's the process used to arrive at that? Not trying to be a jerk, just an honest query....

And it bears remembering that "value" does not always equal "price," and the Reds are in a situation where it behooves them to be smart shoppers. Let's say Phillips "value" really is "$8 million" (I'm not agreeing, necessarily, but let's take it for granted).... what's wrong with paying $4 million (or probably less) for one year? Not only is it a bargain, but you get to find out if he has any more $8 million years in him.

If he does, and his performance repeats? Great, you can become more confident of that valuation and act accordingly. If his performance even IMPROVES, and his value goes up, the economics of baseball still dictate that his PRICE will not rise at the same level (2008's $3-4 million contract would only realistically become a $6-7 million contract in 2009, short of a unanimous MVP season by Phillips). And if performance levels off or declines? Price will still inch upward as value comes down, still giving the team and player mutually equitable deals in much arb-year wrangling.

And a point of comparison:

Robinson Cano asked for basically the same amount in arbitration as Phillips did. And I hope it's not blasphemy to say, but I'd rather have Cano on my team six days a week and twice on Sundays. Then again: I guess he is on "my team," since I'm almost as big a Yanks fan as Reds fan...

I digress. Point is, if I were to launch into an investigation of Phillips' "value," I'd value him less than Cano (Phillips' defense and speed are superior, but Cano has three consistent years of above-average offense and a career 120 OPS+ to Phillips four years of partial year struggles, 1 average year, 1 above average offensive year for a career 85 OPS+). Yet, whoever is advising them heading into arbitration has them going for the same basic payday. That seems a bit odd to me, and possibly a sign of skewed/inaccurate valuations of one or both players.



Rick

Stephenk29
01-19-2008, 08:28 PM
LTC don't seem like a good idea sometimes. In certain players cases I like them, but when a guy like Bill Hall for example breaks out a career year then gets a LTC I get a little worried. I'd agree we should just wait another 3 years before we address the Phillips contract issue. I hope this is resemblance of an ego we get from him.

AmarilloRed
01-20-2008, 12:06 AM
I think Brandon Philips should do it over a period of years before we begin discussing a LTC. Adam Dunn has demonstrated a certain level of production for 4-5 years, so a LTC makes sense in his case.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 12:12 AM
LTC just because there is no other options for Dunn. I'm scared of a long term deal with Dunn because of his size and afraid of a quick decline once he hits his wall.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 02:53 AM
Just out of curiousity, what's the process used to arrive at that? Not trying to be a jerk, just an honest query....

And it bears remembering that "value" does not always equal "price," and the Reds are in a situation where it behooves them to be smart shoppers. Let's say Phillips "value" really is "$8 million" (I'm not agreeing, necessarily, but let's take it for granted).... what's wrong with paying $4 million (or probably less) for one year? Not only is it a bargain, but you get to find out if he has any more $8 million years in him.

If he does, and his performance repeats? Great, you can become more confident of that valuation and act accordingly. If his performance even IMPROVES, and his value goes up, the economics of baseball still dictate that his PRICE will not rise at the same level (2008's $3-4 million contract would only realistically become a $6-7 million contract in 2009, short of a unanimous MVP season by Phillips). And if performance levels off or declines? Price will still inch upward as value comes down, still giving the team and player mutually equitable deals in much arb-year wrangling.

And a point of comparison:

Robinson Cano asked for basically the same amount in arbitration as Phillips did. And I hope it's not blasphemy to say, but I'd rather have Cano on my team six days a week and twice on Sundays. Then again: I guess he is on "my team," since I'm almost as big a Yanks fan as Reds fan...

I digress. Point is, if I were to launch into an investigation of Phillips' "value," I'd value him less than Cano (Phillips' defense and speed are superior, but Cano has three consistent years of above-average offense and a career 120 OPS+ to Phillips four years of partial year struggles, 1 average year, 1 above average offensive year for a career 85 OPS+). Yet, whoever is advising them heading into arbitration has them going for the same basic payday. That seems a bit odd to me, and possibly a sign of skewed/inaccurate valuations of one or both players.



Rick

$8 million is per year value of him if we signed him to a five year contract TODAY- not what I would offer him on a one year deal for this year. I came up with $8 million without even doing any research- just off the top of my head...

Vada Pinson Fan
01-21-2008, 12:25 AM
Brandon knows being in Cincinnati has resurrected his career. When BP makes statements like the one attributed to him above, he's just posturing for his big pay-day.