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View Full Version : Reds acquire FA Pitcher Affeldt



cReds1
01-19-2008, 03:22 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7695584

TC81190
01-19-2008, 03:23 PM
Hey, not bad. Affeldt has pitched well before, and hasn't been injured, so there's no reason to believe he couldn't do it again.

REDblooded
01-19-2008, 03:23 PM
i'm ok with this

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 03:25 PM
gonna be interesting to see how they use him

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 03:36 PM
gonna be interesting to see how they use him

I kind of expect him to battle for a spot in the rotation. We have plenty of lefties in the bullpen and "need" a left-handed starting pitcher...

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 03:38 PM
I kind of expect him to battle for a spot in the rotation. We have plenty of lefties in the bullpen and "need" a left-handed starting pitcher...

Yep should be interesting. 1 year deal is hard to complain about no matter what the case.

kaldaniels
01-19-2008, 03:38 PM
WK does one thing outstanding that no one can argue with. He keeps deals under the radar until they are announced...no one saw this one coming, as most of his moves.

I(heart)Freel
01-19-2008, 03:43 PM
One year, $3 mill after the season he had? Wow. Guess he wanted to go to team with the most chance of cracking the rotation, so he can go get a decent pay day as a starter (where the real money is).

Me likey. Nice hustle Reds (Wayne and/or Walt).

TC81190
01-19-2008, 03:43 PM
Affeldt - 2007, neutralized to 750 run park:
3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 60.2 IP/44 H, 3 HR, 47 K

redhawk61
01-19-2008, 03:47 PM
I can live with this a chance to have a lefty in the opening day rotation

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 03:50 PM
This was NOT a Jocketty move, it was a Krivsky move. Krivdawg is still the GM, not Jocketty. Jocketty is just an advisor. Give Krivdawg his due credit on this one...

HBP
01-19-2008, 03:51 PM
Low risk. If he puts up decent #'s in '08, he may be an option going forward as well.

redhawk61
01-19-2008, 03:52 PM
...or this could be a way to boot Stanton. We can only hope

NorrisHopper30
01-19-2008, 03:55 PM
Solid, cheap pick-up, IMO.

crazybob60
01-19-2008, 04:08 PM
I actually like this move and haven't we had Affeldt on our radars before? Well if the FO hasn't, I know that some people here on the boards have mentioned his name several times over for a possible spot. Now i wonder if this was one of WK moves that he was so tight lipped about saying that they aren't done yet....now I wonder if he will say they are done are what? And as stated by someone earlier, it will be interesting to see how he is used because he could be used in any number of roles like pushing the youngsters for one of those final 1-2 spots in the rotation in the spring and then also as a long reliever as well....

HalMorrisRules
01-19-2008, 04:13 PM
FWIW, Affeldt was ESPN's #40 Free Agent this offseason and they and they did not envision anyone using him as a starter.

"Affeldt has become a capable middle reliever after various aborted experiments in the rotation and in the closer's role; he'll never be more than a sixth- or seventh-inning guy if he doesn't throw more strikes. He succeeds because of the movement on his pitches -- a 90-92 mph fastball with natural cut and a 76-78 mph slurve that breaks in toward righties and down enough to fool them, plus an occasional hard changeup around 86 mph with some fading action. He doesn't show a typical left-hander's platoon split because his fastball moves so much and his breaking ball isn't that plus, so he's miscast in a specialist's role but can be valuable as a middle guy with a touch of upside if a different pitching coach can get him to improve his control."

Edd Roush
01-19-2008, 04:16 PM
I actually like this move and haven't we had Affeldt on our radars before? Well if the FO hasn't, I know that some people here on the boards have mentioned his name several times over for a possible spot. Now i wonder if this was one of WK moves that he was so tight lipped about saying that they aren't done yet....now I wonder if he will say they are done are what? And as stated by someone earlier, it will be interesting to see how he is used because he could be used in any number of roles like pushing the youngsters for one of those final 1-2 spots in the rotation in the spring and then also as a long reliever as well....


I think I recall that too, Bob. I don't know how much stamina he has, but I would like to see him crack the rotation and produce well in the #3 or #4 spot. I like the velocity he has, but I certainly do not like the walks. Certainly seems like a better option than Livan or Fogg. For the record, I still wouldn't mind picking up Tomko on the cheap. I want as much competition as possible for this rotation.

I(heart)Freel
01-19-2008, 04:18 PM
Also trends as a groundball guy. Here are some stats for the past 3 years.


Year W L ERA GS CG SO INN HA HRA BBI K GdAO WHIP OBA QS
2007 4 3 3.509 0 0 0 59 47 3 33 46 1.7 1.356 0.3281 0
2006 8 8 6.195 9 0 0 97.3 102 13 55 48 1.4 1.613 0.3549 1
2005 0 2 5.255 0 0 0 49.7 56 3 29 39 1.3 1.711 0.3664 0

Nothing dominating, but here's hoping he turned a corner last year in learning *how* to pitch. See if we make that translate to the rotation.

crazybob60
01-19-2008, 04:21 PM
I think I recall that too, Bob. I don't know how much stamina he has, but I would like to see him crack the rotation and produce well in the #3 or #4 spot. I like the velocity he has, but I certainly do not like the walks. Certainly seems like a better option than Livan or Fogg. For the record, I still wouldn't mind picking up Tomko on the cheap. I want as much competition as possible for this rotation.

Yeah, although of the three you mentioned, I just hope we go after one more guy as I think we need one more solid arm as Affeldt can be very versatile and although he isn't the best fit for Great American, Livan Hernandez is number one on my list because I think the fact he eats innings would be beneficial. Then I think you could toss a coin on Fogg or Tomko...maybe Tomko because as you said he would be cheaper...but i just hope we aren't done.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 04:23 PM
I see this pushing one of our young relievers out of the bullpen more than him being a starter.

Well of course if we get rid of stanton that would be excellent but lets get real here.

schmidty622
01-19-2008, 04:26 PM
I’ve been thinking about Affeldt for awhile as a solid addition to the Reds Pen. If nothing else he provides a guy that can shorten a game for some of our young starters by coming in and giving the Reds quality innings in the 6th and the 7th.

I hope he pushes Stanton out the door and joins Coutlangous and Bray as the lefties out of the bullpen.

I also hope he doesn't crack the rotation because his numbers have been pretty awful as a starter.

Edd Roush
01-19-2008, 04:27 PM
Yeah, although of the three you mentioned, I just hope we go after one more guy as I think we need one more solid arm as Affeldt can be very versatile and although he isn't the best fit for Great American, Livan Hernandez is number one on my list because I think the fact he eats innings would be beneficial. Then I think you could toss a coin on Fogg or Tomko...maybe Tomko because as you said he would be cheaper...but i just hope we aren't done.

I completely disagree about Livan. I don't want him "eating innings" if they are going to be below average innings. There is a difference between Harang "eating innings" and Livan Hernandez "eating innings." I want to see a guy who can keep guys off of the basepaths and a guy who keeps the ball on the ground and let's his defense make some plays.

Livan walks a bunch of guys and his arm is showing trends of deteriorating. But, the one thing going for him, as stated on the ORG, is that twice before in his career, he has looked like he was done and produced an above average year. I would love to get "lucky" with Livan, but it seems to be a much more expensive gamble than Affeldt and Tomko combined.

Edd Roush
01-19-2008, 04:36 PM
Just checked out his game log from 2006 (his last year with any starts) at http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=affelje01&t=p&year=2006 and saw that he didn't make it more than 6 innings in any start. I'm starting to believe that he'll be of more benefit to our bullpen than he will to our rotation. I'm really starting to hope that he takes Stanton's spot in the pen and we can go out and acquire some one else for the rotation. If he can't make it 6 innings consistently, he's going to kill our bullpen.

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 04:42 PM
Just checked out his game log from 2006 (his last year with any starts) at http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=affelje01&t=p&year=2006 and saw that he didn't make it more than 6 innings in any start. I'm starting to believe that he'll be of more benefit to our bullpen than he will to our rotation. I'm really starting to hope that he takes Stanton's spot in the pen and we can go out and acquire some one else for the rotation. If he can't make it 6 innings consistently, he's going to kill our bullpen.

Yeah career 5.15 IPS is a little discouraging, although he's just keeping a spot warm for Cueto or Maloney ;)

AdamDunn
01-19-2008, 04:48 PM
3 lefties in our bullpen? what the?

Stephenk29
01-19-2008, 04:50 PM
nice signing. Krivsky has had a very good off season.

*BaseClogger*
01-19-2008, 04:50 PM
3 lefties in our bullpen? what the?

Affeldt doesn't have much of a platoon split so if you want you can think of him as a righty...

Edd Roush
01-19-2008, 04:53 PM
Affeldt doesn't have much of a platoon split so if you want you can think of him as a righty...

Or more importantly, as a league average reliever who is coming off of an above-average season with an ERA+ of 137 for only a one-year commitment of 3 million. Good job FO.

AccordinglyReds
01-19-2008, 04:54 PM
I really like this signing. Good pitcher for cheap and a one-year deal. I can understand why they would try him in the rotation if none of the young pitchers do well in Spring Training, but I'd like to see him in the bullpen beyond that. :)

fadetoblack2880
01-19-2008, 04:59 PM
No complaints from me, I just hope they don't stop with this move.

crazybob60
01-19-2008, 05:07 PM
I completely disagree about Livan. I don't want him "eating innings" if they are going to be below average innings. There is a difference between Harang "eating innings" and Livan Hernandez "eating innings." I want to see a guy who can keep guys off of the basepaths and a guy who keeps the ball on the ground and let's his defense make some plays.

Livan walks a bunch of guys and his arm is showing trends of deteriorating. But, the one thing going for him, as stated on the ORG, is that twice before in his career, he has looked like he was done and produced an above average year. I would love to get "lucky" with Livan, but it seems to be a much more expensive gamble than Affeldt and Tomko combined.

I totally see where you are coming from and again, I just hope we are not done with just the Affeldt signing and we sign at least one more. And although I would love for that to be Livan Hernandez, I actually wouldn't mind it being Tomko or even Fogg. For some reason I just like Livan a tad better but it is just a tad, and I wouldn't be heartbroken with a Tomko or Fogg.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 05:11 PM
If you expect them to be any better than our current options expect to be heart broken.

Tomko couldnt cut it even pitching in LA

captainmorgan07
01-19-2008, 05:35 PM
good move by front office. if he doesn't beat out the kids for the back of the rotation u can stick him in the bullpen and know he's made it happen in the bullpen before.

wlf WV
01-19-2008, 05:51 PM
Just listened to His interview with MLB following NLLC win. He said liked His role because of success at ML level,but did'nt feel He was given enough time to succeed as a starter.

Chi-Town Red
01-19-2008, 05:55 PM
solid move...

schmidty622
01-19-2008, 06:16 PM
I never understand why guys think they have the ability to be a starter when they have not performed well in the role in the past. Accept your role as a reliever and STFU.

I hope he doesnt whine when the Reds do the right thing and move him into the Pen.

BEETTLEBUG
01-19-2008, 06:19 PM
WHO IS THE CHOICE OF DROPPING OFF THE 40 WHEN JEREMY IS PUT ON NEXT WEEK. People keep saying Stanton but he can't be DFA cause if he gets innings somewhere else they still have to pay his option for 2009.

ED44
01-19-2008, 06:53 PM
I really like this pickup! I've been a fan of his for quite sometime.

AmarilloRed
01-19-2008, 06:55 PM
We will also have to drop someone else off the roster if we add someone else besides Affeldt. I expect this was the last move by the Reds this off-season.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 07:17 PM
40 man is full but the ideal 25 man is 1 man over also.

Stanton DFA or there is a trade some where

Stephenk29
01-19-2008, 07:28 PM
If we DFA Castor, how much money would we have to eat?

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 07:39 PM
If we DFA Castor, how much money would we have to eat?

All that hes scheduled to make

Old NDN
01-19-2008, 07:54 PM
Maybe this acquisition is a prelude to other moves. It gives the Reds a little flexibility in including some of the youngsters (middle relievers or starters) in other deals.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 07:56 PM
Someone on the 25 man has to be moved off it unless im wrong. Then if bruce makes the team out of spring training or even Cueto thats another spot or two thats gonna have to be cleared.

Stephenk29
01-19-2008, 08:35 PM
I guess its better to have this problem then put a team together with a bunch of 'filler'. Inevitably we're gonna have to eat some money somewhere. Especially if Bruce and Cueto make the 25 man roster. I don't think its to likely they both do though.

jmac
01-19-2008, 08:35 PM
I like this. Whether a starter or bp, I still like this better than a Fogg or Tomko signing.
With this cold weather and the reds offseason, I am about ready for ST.

Vada Pinson Fan
01-19-2008, 09:13 PM
Have to give credit to Wayne Krivsky. A nice move to acquire Affeldt. It will be interesting to hear the Brennaman's spin on the acquisition Wednesday on the Hot Stove League. Quite a few lefties in the pen now. Hopefully it pushes Stanton to retirement.

With adding Jeremy Affeldt and after the arbitration numbers are settled between the Reds and Brandon Phillips along with Matt Belisle, I wonder where the Reds payroll will stand at going in to spring training. I really like the job Krivsky and Castellini have done so far and I'm sure Jocketty had input on Affeldt coming here. Nice job but not done yet....hopefully.

Hey Meat
01-19-2008, 09:47 PM
Looks like a good move now. Hopefully Affeldt is able to pitch at GABP. I will postpone my ruling on this acquisition until later.

mlbfan30
01-19-2008, 09:52 PM
I'm fine with the move, but I really don't understand why people think he's even an option for the rotation.

His career line in the rotation is a 5.41 ERA with .372 OBPa.

So this might not be too bad, right? You might think this a Belisle type starter, but he's much worse. He averaged less than 5 innings, 1 out. That's pathetic for a starter and would really create a burdon on the bullpen.

In 216 IP as a starter, he has 96BB and 127K. The BB rate is really bad, especially for playing in the GABP where he might give up some extra HRs.

This guy is not a starter, and should only be used in the bullpen. I have a feeling he'll get the 5th spot, and that would really hurt the team until Bailey gets his spot back. I'd rather have Maloney starting over Affeldt.

As a reliever, who hopefully pushes Stanton off the team, this is a good move. He's not a LOOGY type, and his numbers against LH and RH are better than Stanton against LH alone. Affeldt should be an above average 1 IP type guy. He should not be used to get out of jams because of his horrible BB rate. He also has the ability become a spot starter, but thats all he should be in terms of starting.

This brings better depth as an emergency situation but it would be a horrible idea to overstate his abilities.

SMcGavin
01-19-2008, 09:54 PM
He's OK. This doesn't get me excited but I'm not upset about it or anything. I really hope they don't consider him a rotation option though. He's an average reliever, nothing more. Even as a RP he can't find the strike zone. 5.1 BB/9, wow. I guess he still might be better than what we had last year.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2008, 10:03 PM
The fact is its hard to complain about 1 year deals given the market.

757690
01-19-2008, 10:36 PM
The Reds needed depth at starting pitching, so while Affeldt definitely is best suited to relieve, I think he needs to be considered for the #4 or 5 starter. He was 23-25 when he got the bulk of his starts, which explains why he rarely went more than 5 innings. He has great stuff, throws around 93-95 and has a sharp curve. He is worth trying at SP, to see if he has matured at all. 28 is a good age for pitchers to turn the corner. If not, he becomes the long man that the team was without.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 12:14 AM
Amazing quote from the ORG


Step in the right direction? Sure, I guess. It isn't a bad move. But it's the kind of move that most likely keeps you mediocre. I'm not a huge fan of mediocre.

:bowrofl:

reds2221
01-20-2008, 12:34 AM
like many have said, this an OK move. I really don't feel like he's going to be great, but he'll probably do some good for the team. As long as he's better than stanton

757690
01-20-2008, 12:45 AM
"Step in the right direction? Sure, I guess. It isn't a bad move. But it's the kind of move that most likely keeps you mediocre. I'm not a huge fan of mediocre."

The main reason why this is a necessary move that significantly improves the team is not how good Affeldt is, but the simple fact that the Reds needed experienced arms, especially ones that can start or fill in at long relief.
Affeldt is now the only Reds potential long reliever. Usually the long reliever is the loser of the rotation competition, but with all youngsters competing, the losers will likely go to AAA. Also, since it is likely the Reds will have at least one starter who can only go 5 innings a game, the bullpen really needs a long reliever.

AmarilloRed
01-20-2008, 12:46 AM
A lot of people keep mentioning Stanton. I know this is going to break a lot of hearts, but Stanton will be on the 25-man roster this year. I can't see any other team accepting Stanton in a trade, and the Reds can't DFA him for fear another team will give him the appearances and activate the 2009 option. I expect the best the Reds can do is keep Stanton on the roster this year, and make sure he gets under the minimum number of appearances.

Newman4
01-20-2008, 01:21 AM
If Affeldt can replicate last year, of course this is a steal. If he regresses to 2006 then.... well it's still only 3 million. Then again, unlike many FAs, he has had success sooner rather than later. Leave him in the pen. I like the way the pen is looking: Cordero, Burton, Weathers, Bray and now Affeldt is pretty formidable. One more starter and things get interesting.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 01:30 AM
At some point you have to start believing in our prospects. Belisle isnt going anywhere and there are no obvious improvements over him on the free agent market.

mlbfan30
01-20-2008, 02:39 AM
Just trade Stanton and cash for a PTBNL. At least 1 team might do that.

BearcatShane
01-20-2008, 03:07 AM
This is a sensational deal even if it doesn't pan out. We got a left handed picther coming off a solid year for a 1 year 3 million dollar deal! In this market that is amazing. Maybe 2007 was his breakout year and he's going to be a solid picther from here on out. Maybe not. But for 1 year and 3 million I'm gald were getting the chance to find out if he's the real deal or not in a Reds uniform. And I could be wrong but doesn't he throw like 96?

BEETTLEBUG
01-20-2008, 04:56 AM
What 1 team would take Stanton and cash for PTBNL?

BoldOD
01-20-2008, 10:26 AM
I like this move. We'll see where they place him.

jmac
01-20-2008, 11:00 AM
This is a sensational deal even if it doesn't pan out. We got a left handed picther coming off a solid year for a 1 year 3 million dollar deal! In this market that is amazing. Maybe 2007 was his breakout year and he's going to be a solid picther from here on out. Maybe not. But for 1 year and 3 million I'm gald were getting the chance to find out if he's the real deal or not in a Reds uniform. And I could be wrong but doesn't he throw like 96?

One report I seen on him prior to last season had him at 95.

Newman4
01-20-2008, 11:11 AM
" Amazing quote from the ORG


Quote:
Step in the right direction? Sure, I guess. It isn't a bad move. But it's the kind of move that most likely keeps you mediocre. I'm not a huge fan of mediocre. "

If he's anywhere near 2007 (which was in Coor's for half his games I might add) then he's not mediocre.

jmac
01-20-2008, 11:38 AM
" Amazing quote from the ORG


Quote:
Step in the right direction? Sure, I guess. It isn't a bad move. But it's the kind of move that most likely keeps you mediocre. I'm not a huge fan of mediocre. "

If he's anywhere near 2007 (which was in Coor's for half his games I might add) then he's not mediocre.
Plus some times it is one huge move that gets you out of being "mediocre" and other times , it is sveral smaller type moves that when blended together does the trick.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 01:17 PM
And I could be wrong but doesn't he throw like 96?

Consistently between 90 to 92 on his cutter and can move it up to about 94, maybe 95. Becuase the cutter breaks so far in on righties, he does not have significant platoon splits...

Degenerate39
01-20-2008, 02:25 PM
I wonder where they'll put him in the rotation. My guess the rotation will look something like this:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Bailey

I like this signing because it keeps one of the young guys in the minors for a little longer. Not to mention they got this guy pretty cheap and he did decently well in a hitter's park. Good move IMO by Wayne.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 02:49 PM
I wonder where they'll put him in the rotation. My guess the rotation will look something like this:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Bailey

I like this signing because it keeps one of the young guys in the minors for a little longer. Not to mention they got this guy pretty cheap and he did decently well in a hitter's park. Good move IMO by Wayne.

I think you are spot on with that rotation. If possible, Bailey will definitely be the #5 so we can skip his spot in the rotation and control his innings...

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 03:10 PM
Oops, I forgot about Volquez... maybe Bailey in AAA and Volquez the #5? Affeldt the #5 and Volquez the #4?

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 03:28 PM
I cant think of a single reason of why Bailey would start in AAA

SMcGavin
01-20-2008, 03:34 PM
I cant think of a single reason of why Bailey would start in AAA

I can, here's a couple:

He's 21 years old
When he was up here last season, he was really bad

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 03:44 PM
I can, here's a couple:

He's 21 years old
When he was up here last season, he was really bad

He also was injured and has nothing left to prove in the minors

gedred69
01-20-2008, 03:54 PM
Bailey will have to stink up ST to not be part of the Reds. Just a musing, but what could he be other than part of the rotation out of the gate? I consider the same question of Volquez. I expect to see 3 guys battling for #4 and 5. The good thing I think, is that Cueto gets a little more time to hone at AAA.

Well, got my airline ticket, and tickets to 4 games in Fla. It won't be long until we know a whole lot more! (I am 10,000 children on Xmas eve for 3/14 vs. Yanks in Sarasota):D

SMcGavin
01-20-2008, 03:59 PM
He also was injured and has nothing left to prove in the minors

He wasn't injured the whole time here. Also, he pitched fewer than 70 innings in AA and AAA. He's never shown the ability to stay in a league and dominate it once hitters have seen him a couple of times. He's also never shown the ability to consistently locate the curveball.

I wouldn't be upset if Bailey started the season in the majors, but to act like there's no reason to start him in AAA is wrong. Last year he had the same amount of strikeouts and walks while up here. That is awful. Honestly, If Bailey can put up a 4.85 ERA this year in the bigs, I'll be thrilled.

That being said, with our current roster, I probably start Bailey in the rotation. Affeldt is not a starter, and we really don't have anyone else. Hopefully WK can add somebody before spring.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 04:12 PM
He also was injured and has nothing left to prove in the minors

control? changeup?

tbball10
01-20-2008, 04:34 PM
the enquirer reports that his fastball gets up to 93... but when i watched him with KC he was a high 90's guy. has he sacrificed some speed to add control?

also, i think belisle, bailey, volquez, and affeldy should be challenging for 3 spots, and belisle should not have a spot given to him..

redsfanmia
01-20-2008, 04:46 PM
Got to love the fact that the Reds have added 3 power arms to the team this off season.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 05:41 PM
I'm on the record as saying that I would give Affeldt a shot as the #4 in the rotation... if he is really bad we put him in the bullpen and call up Cueto/Maloney. I'm not saying he is a season long fixture...

TheBigLebowski
01-20-2008, 05:48 PM
I like this signing a lot. Nice.

AmarilloRed
01-20-2008, 07:07 PM
We got Affeldt because he wanted to be in the rotation, but he will have to prove it in spring training like anyone else. If Cueto, Bailey, and Vasquez pitch better than him in spring training, they will be in the rotation and he will move to the bullpen

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 07:19 PM
The Royals and Brett Tomko have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $3 million contract.

Now someone tell me we made a bad move?

XU Lou
01-20-2008, 08:25 PM
Oops, I forgot about Volquez... maybe Bailey in AAA and Volquez the #5? Affeldt the #5 and Volquez the #4?

Now when was the last time you forgot a pitcher of note in the Reds rotation? That's a decent indicator that things are looking up for this staff.

I love the move. It isn't sexy and it isn't going to make the Cubs shake in their cleats. However, this is one of those small moves that pay big dividends later in the year.

SMcGavin
01-20-2008, 09:57 PM
The Royals and Brett Tomko have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $3 million contract.

Now someone tell me we made a bad move?

Tomko has shown the ability to be a starter. Not a particularly good one, but he's depth there.

Affeldt, I am not convinced he can be a serviceable starter. He has not shown that. He has better stuff, yes. Comparing the two is kind of apples/oranges. I still hope we put Affeldt in the bullpen and get a real starter for the rotation.

jmac
01-20-2008, 10:35 PM
the enquirer reports that his fastball gets up to 93... but when i watched him with KC he was a high 90's guy. has he sacrificed some speed to add control?

also, i think belisle, bailey, volquez, and affeldy should be challenging for 3 spots, and belisle should not have a spot given to him..

Your opinion of Belisle is what I have been saying as well.
I hope Matt does well but , it should not be handed to him as WK seems to indicate in some interviews. If he gets knocked around in ST, is he still the #3?

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 11:14 PM
Tomko has shown the ability to be a starter. Not a particularly good one, but he's depth there.

Affeldt, I am not convinced he can be a serviceable starter. He has not shown that. He has better stuff, yes. Comparing the two is kind of apples/oranges. I still hope we put Affeldt in the bullpen and get a real starter for the rotation.

Hes shown the ability to be a terrible starter in some of the NLs biggest parks

tomd63
01-20-2008, 11:41 PM
It finally dawned on me who Affeldt reminds me of. Affeldt's numbers are doubled below to somewhat even out playing time:


Name W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
Affeldt 50 54 4.74 572 84 36 972.0 1014 566 512 90 448 694 9.4 0.8 4.2 6.4 1.50
Villone 55 57 4.76 580 93 6 1069.1 1016 613 565 126 571 842 8.6 1.1 4.8 7.1 1.48

Interestingly enough, the Reds turned Villone back into a starter in 1999 after not being primarily a starter since his first year in pro ball in 1993.

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 01:05 AM
It finally dawned on me who Affeldt reminds me of. Affeldt's numbers are doubled below to somewhat even out playing time:


Name W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
Affeldt 50 54 4.74 572 84 36 972.0 1014 566 512 90 448 694 9.4 0.8 4.2 6.4 1.50
Villone 55 57 4.76 580 93 6 1069.1 1016 613 565 126 571 842 8.6 1.1 4.8 7.1 1.48

Interestingly enough, the Reds turned Villone back into a starter in 1999 after not being primarily a starter since his first year in pro ball in 1993.

excellent comp

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 01:06 AM
Now when was the last time you forgot a pitcher of note in the Reds rotation? That's a decent indicator that things are looking up for this staff.

I love the move. It isn't sexy and it isn't going to make the Cubs shake in their cleats. However, this is one of those small moves that pay big dividends later in the year.

Feels good! :thumbup:

Another possibility with Affeldt is if he pitches well we can swing him for a decent prospect midseason (if we are out of it)...

Edd Roush
01-21-2008, 01:38 PM
It finally dawned on me who Affeldt reminds me of. Affeldt's numbers are doubled below to somewhat even out playing time:


Name W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
Affeldt 50 54 4.74 572 84 36 972.0 1014 566 512 90 448 694 9.4 0.8 4.2 6.4 1.50
Villone 55 57 4.76 580 93 6 1069.1 1016 613 565 126 571 842 8.6 1.1 4.8 7.1 1.48

Interestingly enough, the Reds turned Villone back into a starter in 1999 after not being primarily a starter since his first year in pro ball in 1993.

Thanks for that tom. I always loved "Bulldog", as me and my dad called him. Villone was a really nice guy and a pretty solid pitcher, I guess you don't remember all the walks when you are a younger kid. But, I will always remember the day when Ron Villone outdueled Randy Johnson at Riverfront. Ahh, the good old days. For the record, if Affeldt can pitch anything like Villone circa 1999, the Reds will be seeing themselves in the playoffs.

Bip Roberts
01-21-2008, 01:47 PM
now we need to get Khalil Greene

AmarilloRed
01-21-2008, 01:54 PM
now we need to get Khalil Greene

Plenty of teams could use a shortstop like Greene: the Orioles, Royals, Angels, Nationals, Cubs, and Cardinals come to mind. However the Padres have no replacement for him. Erick Aybar, Felipe Lopez, and Ronny Cedeno are three possibilities where Towers could get a young shortstop in return (Lopez, less so). Are any of those three a sufficient bounty for two years of Greene? Pitching might have to be added to make it viable for San Diego. Towers will be a lot less limited if he can acquire a good young shortstop in a separate deal.



In other words, we would need to trade both a good young shortstop and a starting pitcher to get Khalil Greene. We simply don't have a good young shortstop available to trade.

Bip Roberts
01-21-2008, 01:59 PM
Yea well those names listed there arent good young short stops either

Newman4
01-21-2008, 02:40 PM
Why again do we need Khalil Greene?

Bip Roberts
01-21-2008, 02:44 PM
Why again do we need Khalil Greene?

because stone cold said so?

Really we probably dont considering the price

roby
01-21-2008, 03:05 PM
Oops, I forgot about Volquez... maybe Bailey in AAA and Volquez the #5? Affeldt the #5 and Volquez the #4?

How about Volquez in the bullpen?

Degenerate39
01-21-2008, 03:30 PM
How about Volquez in the bullpen?

I'd rather see what Volquez can do in the rotation before the Reds put him in the pen. I'd hate to trade a guy like Hamilton for two bullpen arms.

fewfirstchoice
01-21-2008, 05:13 PM
How about Gonzo and Belisle for Greene?Would you do it.

Bip Roberts
01-21-2008, 05:17 PM
How about Gonzo and Belisle for Greene?Would you do it.

They wouldnt

AmarilloRed
01-21-2008, 05:17 PM
How about Gonzo and Belisle for Greene?Would you do it.

I would, but the Padres probably won't. They are looking for a young shortstop.

fewfirstchoice
01-21-2008, 05:31 PM
Im not sure if they would do it either but it would be worth a shot.Gonzo would give them a somwhat cheap SS for 2 more years with great D.Belisle gives them a young SP with alot of upside.So if we maybe throw in Valalika(sp) or Wood type and they send us back a B prospect we could get it to work.Just a deal to think about.

Blue
01-21-2008, 05:52 PM
I don't think there is any way that Bailey and Volquez will not be in the starting rotation coming out of Spring Training. Hopefully Belisle won't be in the rotation and Affeldt will be in the bullpen. I'd give the last spot to Cueto or Maloney, if they pitch well in ST.

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 08:51 PM
How about Volquez in the bullpen?

Volquez may indeed end up in the bullpen, but as someone else said we have to try him in the rotation first. He would be a dynamite reliever but a good starting pitcher is much more valueable because of the innings difference...

wlf WV
01-21-2008, 09:15 PM
reds classics rewind on fox cin.

Dracodave
01-22-2008, 08:13 AM
1) Affeldt is a good signing. He improves the bullpen with a power lefty..a decent lefty and a decent pitcher.

2)Khalil Greene is a defensive wiz with pop. He lacks batting average and OBP. I'd happen to think we could get a player from our minors worth the same as him. I wouldnt trade anything of substance for him as he's making 4/5 million now, and likely 8/9 next season if not more due to richer teams needing SS's.

BLEEDS
01-23-2008, 06:23 PM
By all accounts and reports, he will be competing for a starting job.

Given that we have Harang, Arroyo, and 5 guys ready to "Break Out", adding a guy who's actually started 40+ games in his career can't be a bad thing.

Aside from blisters, he really has no real injury risk, and he's left-handed which is always a plus.

I'd be really surprised if Affeldt doesn't start at least 15 games.

If I had to put my money on the starting rotation for April, it would be:

1 - Harang
2 - Arroyo
(DUH!)

3 - Belisle
4 - Affeldt
5 - Bailey

Cueto and Volquez have options and would most benefit from starting the year in AAA.

Cueto needs to pitch every 5th day, and wouldn't get that chance in the Bigs. He should dominate AAA for about 2-3 looks at teams before he's deemed ready.
In a perfect world, Cueto spends the entire 2008 season in AAA - MAYBE getting a September call-up. No reason to start his clock, especially since we are playing for 2009 and beyond, and not 2008. </enter sarcasm smiley here>

Volquez should spend some time getting the ball every 5th day as well, prepping for a spot in the rotation.

Putting Affeldt in the 5 spot is another consideration, which would give him some rest early in April (where you don't have to use #5 starters too often) - "easing" him into the rotation to possibly help prevent any blister issues. He could also be used as a long reliever/situational lefty from the bullpen during those early rotations.

If that was the case, I'd actually move Bailey up to #3 and let him continue his trail-by-fire, since we all want him to be a #3 anyhow - might as well put him in those match-ups. He's got #3 stuff now, even if he only went with two pitches.

That leaves Belisle at #4, where he might actually be ABOVE AVERAGE to start the year out, versus being overmatched at the #3 week-in and week-out.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 12:08 AM
Bailey needs to be the #5 so that we can control his innings- I can't see him pitching more than 150 innings this year. He only threw 121 innings last year, and I don't want to see more than a 30 inning bump on his 22 year old arm...

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 12:14 AM
Honestly its more about his pitch counts to me than his innings.

BLEEDS
01-24-2008, 12:15 AM
Bailey needs to be the #5 so that we can control his innings- I can't see him pitching more than 150 innings this year. He only threw 121 innings last year, and I don't want to see more than a 30 inning bump on his 22 year old arm...

Agreed, that's why I put him in the 5 spot to begin with. We do have Dusty Baker as the coach, so limiting him is going to be a challenge all around. ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 12:21 AM
Honestly its more about his pitch counts to me than his innings.

sure, but skipping his spot in the rotation from time to time can help control arm fatigue as well...

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 12:28 AM
sure, but skipping his spot in the rotation from time to time can help control arm fatigue as well...

After the 1st month of the season you dont really skip starts.

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 12:31 AM
After the 1st month of the season you dont really skip starts.

really? no more offdays the rest of the season?

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 12:33 AM
really? no more offdays the rest of the season?

You get off days but skipping rotation spots is rare...

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 12:35 AM
You get off days but skipping rotation spots is rare...

are you saying Trusty Dusty won't want to skip the rotation spot of a tremendously talented young pitcher? :cool:

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 12:38 AM
are you saying Trusty Dusty won't want to skip the rotation spot of a tremendously talented young pitcher? :cool:

Not a lot of managers are going to...

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 12:41 AM
Not a lot of managers are going to...

It sounds like what the Red Sox are going to do with Buchholtz...

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 12:44 AM
It sounds like what the Red Sox are going to do with Buchholtz...

Good for them

AmarilloRed
01-24-2008, 02:01 AM
I believe Volquez has no options left, and cannot be sent to AAA.

Z-Fly
01-24-2008, 07:46 AM
I believe Volquez has no options left, and cannot be sent to AAA.

This is the first I have heard of this. Do you have any proof of this? If so, that could be interesting.

BLEEDS
01-24-2008, 10:22 AM
I believe Volquez has no options left, and cannot be sent to AAA.

Wrong again. It's been reported that he does have options. I believe Fay's mentioned it numerous times.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Edd Roush
01-24-2008, 12:25 PM
By all accounts and reports, he will be competing for a starting job.

Given that we have Harang, Arroyo, and 5 guys ready to "Break Out", adding a guy who's actually started 40+ games in his career can't be a bad thing.

Aside from blisters, he really has no real injury risk, and he's left-handed which is always a plus.

I'd be really surprised if Affeldt doesn't start at least 15 games.

If I had to put my money on the starting rotation for April, it would be:

1 - Harang
2 - Arroyo
(DUH!)

3 - Belisle
4 - Affeldt
5 - Bailey

Cueto and Volquez have options and would most benefit from starting the year in AAA.

Cueto needs to pitch every 5th day, and wouldn't get that chance in the Bigs. He should dominate AAA for about 2-3 looks at teams before he's deemed ready.
In a perfect world, Cueto spends the entire 2008 season in AAA - MAYBE getting a September call-up. No reason to start his clock, especially since we are playing for 2009 and beyond, and not 2008. </enter sarcasm smiley here>

Volquez should spend some time getting the ball every 5th day as well, prepping for a spot in the rotation.

Putting Affeldt in the 5 spot is another consideration, which would give him some rest early in April (where you don't have to use #5 starters too often) - "easing" him into the rotation to possibly help prevent any blister issues. He could also be used as a long reliever/situational lefty from the bullpen during those early rotations.

If that was the case, I'd actually move Bailey up to #3 and let him continue his trail-by-fire, since we all want him to be a #3 anyhow - might as well put him in those match-ups. He's got #3 stuff now, even if he only went with two pitches.

That leaves Belisle at #4, where he might actually be ABOVE AVERAGE to start the year out, versus being overmatched at the #3 week-in and week-out.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

IMO, Volquez is more major league ready than Bailey. Volquez was much more ready for the bigs last year than Bailey was. If you substitute Volquez' changeup for Bailey's curveball, Volquez reminds me exactly of Bailey with two more years of experience. Give Bailey the time to get ready for the bigs and give Volquez every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation.

Perfect situation in my mind
Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Volquez
This rotation breaks spring training and heads to Cincinnati.

Then Bailey and Cueto anchor the staff in Louisville and unless one of the 5 starters really implode, you reassess the rotation around early July. Let Bailey and Cueto work out their kinks in AAA and let's see what we've got in Belisle, Affeldt and Volquez. They don't need any more time in AAA. This is all subject to what happens in Spring Training, though. If Cueto comes in looking in like Pedro Martinez and Homer Bailey pitches like Nolan Ryan, by any means hand them a spot in the rotation. But if they are pitching anything similar to Affeldt, Belisle and Volquez, get them ready to dominate in AAA.

BLEEDS
01-24-2008, 12:35 PM
IMO, Volquez is more major league ready than Bailey. Volquez was much more ready for the bigs last year than Bailey was. If you substitute Volquez' changeup for Bailey's curveball, Volquez reminds me exactly of Bailey with two more years of experience. Give Bailey the time to get ready for the bigs and give Volquez every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation.

Perfect situation in my mind
Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Volquez
This rotation breaks spring training and heads to Cincinnati.

Then Bailey and Cueto anchor the staff in Louisville and unless one of the 5 starters really implode, you reassess the rotation around early July. Let Bailey and Cueto work out their kinks in AAA and let's see what we've got in Belisle, Affeldt and Volquez. They don't need any more time in AAA. This is all subject to what happens in Spring Training, though. If Cueto comes in looking in like Pedro Martinez and Homer Bailey pitches like Nolan Ryan, by any means hand them a spot in the rotation. But if they are pitching anything similar to Affeldt, Belisle and Volquez, get them ready to dominate in AAA.


I'd have absolutely 0 problem with that. IMO, neither Bailey and especially Cueto have yet to DOMINATE AAA.

Cueto is the odd man out for sure IMO, as he has BARELY even pitched in AAA, and only 14 starts above A+ ball. He would benefit the most from starting in AAA. Bailey needs to develop a consistent 3rd pitch, and gain some confidence - but if he shows the control to go along with his velocity, it will be hard not to give him a spot in the rotation coming out of Spring Training.

What Volquez and Affeldt do is add more arms to the arsenal. They've started before and have ML-proven stuff, Bailey and Cueto don't yet. However they are no locks, as they really only have 2 plus pitches, and lack a third, and there's the blister concern for Affeldt, plus he hasn't started in 18 months, although he's saying the right things.

IMO, Affeldt and Belise are penciled in right now, and the 5th spot is up for grabs between Bailey and Volquez.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
01-24-2008, 01:28 PM
Wrong again. It's been reported that he does have options. I believe Fay's mentioned it numerous times.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Could I have a quote. I did hear that the Rangers used up all of his options, and that was one of the reasons they traded him.

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 01:33 PM
Could I have a quote. I did hear that the Rangers used up all of his options, and that was one of the reasons they traded him.


One other note on something lot of you have been asking about: Edinson Volquez does have options. That means all the young pitchers competing for spots in the rotation -- Volquez, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Matt Maloney -- have options.

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2008, 01:35 PM
The Reds designated outfielder Jeff Fiorentino for assignment to make room for Affeldt on the 40-man roster.

Don't know if someone else posted this...

AmarilloRed
01-24-2008, 01:44 PM
Affeldt has a 92-94 mph fastball and a curveball in his repertoire, but since he's been a reliever, he lacks the third pitch most starters desire. He already has talked with pitching coach Dick Pole and hopes to add a changeup after camp opens next month.



I would expect it difficult for him to make the rotation with two pitches, and I don't know if a changeup can be successfully worked on in spring training. I think Bailey and Volquez both make the rotation, unless they prove they really are not ready in spring training.

Bip Roberts
01-24-2008, 01:47 PM
Affeldt cant hit the strike zone with 2 plus pitches, i doubt hes going to be able to hit it while trying to learn another