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View Full Version : Talent to win in '08?



UPRedsFan
01-20-2008, 01:35 PM
How many believe the Reds have the talent to make the playoffs in '08?

With the addition of Affeldt, Cordero, Volquez, and another year of maturity for Belisle and Bailey, and a healthy Bray, I think the talent is there.

It's not unrealistic to imagine one of Volquez or Bailey breaking out this year, or to imagine Belisle improving, or to imagine Bray and Burton locking down the 8th inning every night.

I believe the potential is there for this team, as is, to have the best rotation and strongest pen in the Central. Am I just wearing Rosy Red colored glasses?

Degenerate39
01-20-2008, 01:52 PM
My opinion is pretty biased but I really think the Reds have the talent to win the division this year. I think the only problem with the Reds is the starting rotation and a few bad eggs on the team (Stanton and Castro).

They've got a good infield with Votto, Phillips, Gonzo, and Edwin but the guys behind the plate are a problem. If David Ross can return to his 2006 form then the Reds will be fine.

The outfield will be fine offensively but defensively not so much. Dunn, Griffey, and possibly Bruce will be a feared outfield at the plate. Defense is a problem here though.

The rotation on the other hand is a big question mark behind Harang and Arroyo. My guess is Belisle or Affedlt will be the 3rd starter and the other will be the 4th. Then one of the young guns will be the 5th.

The bullpen looks pretty good with the addition of Cordero. So the Reds have a legit closer now and a good experienced Set-up man. Hopefully Burton continues doing what he was doing in the 2nd half of the season. Coffey has been working hard in the offseason from what I've read so he could be back to 2006 form. Bray is a good lefty to have in the pen. They've got some young bullpen arms that could make an impact this year like Burton, Coutlangus, Bray, Coffey, McBeth and a few others.

So the Reds are probably one starter away from going to the playoffs in 2008. They have a good mix of young guys and some veterans.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2008, 01:55 PM
We have the talent its just a matter as if they perform like it.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 02:07 PM
We DEFINATELY have the talent, but I wouldn't put our chances too high- maybe 15%?

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 02:09 PM
I don't want to get this thread off-topic, but catcher isn't a problem and I wouldn't say that it is a concern going in to 2008...

SMcGavin
01-20-2008, 02:43 PM
I don't want to get this thread off-topic, but catcher isn't a problem and I wouldn't way that it is a concern going in to 2008...

Ross 07: .203/.271/.399 (670 OPS)
Average MLB starter at catcher: .285/.342/.435 (777 OPS)

Ross might be solid defensively but he is WAY below average at the plate, catcher is definitely a weak spot. I don't think it is our biggest problem right now, not at least until we get the pitching straightened out. But it is a problem.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2008, 03:11 PM
Ross 07: .203/.271/.399 (670 OPS)
Average MLB starter at catcher: .285/.342/.435 (777 OPS)

Ross might be solid defensively but he is WAY below average at the plate, catcher is definitely a weak spot. I don't think it is our biggest problem right now, not at least until we get the pitching straightened out. But it is a problem.

Those numbers for the average catcher seem WAY too high. That is more like an all-star catcher. I'm not sure where to find the line for a league average catcher, but ZiPS has the projected average catcher for 2008 at .258/.328/.403. The only place Ross comes up short is batting average, and I would expect that to come up thanks to his microscopic .226 BABIP last year. With a .235 average and his excellent power/defense, Ross is easily league average...

UPRedsFan
01-20-2008, 05:25 PM
We have the talent its just a matter as if they perform like it.

Yeah that's my point. For the first time in a long time we have the talent on the roster needed to make the playoffs. If they're ready, if they perform we won't be talking about '09 this summer.

scuba17
01-20-2008, 05:27 PM
I am a Cubs fan, so obvioulsy I like their chances still. Live closer to Cincy though so I naturally follow the Reds even though I am not a fan.

The Reds definitely have some good young talent on the way, but I think things would have to go REALLY wrong with the Cubs and Brewers for the Reds to compete for the division next year. I think the future is looking up, but 2008 may be a bit too early.

SoTxRedsFan
01-20-2008, 05:28 PM
The tools are there. Though I'd be much more confident with one less ? in the rotation.

tomd63
01-20-2008, 07:03 PM
Those numbers for the average catcher seem WAY too high. That is more like an all-star catcher. I'm not sure where to find the line for a league average catcher, but ZiPS has the projected average catcher for 2008 at .258/.328/.403. The only place Ross comes up short is batting average, and I would expect that to come up thanks to his microscopic .226 BABIP last year. With a .235 average and his excellent power/defense, Ross is easily league average...

Go to ESPN team sortable stats and select "As C" as the split, then look at the bottom to find:


LEAGUE AVERAGES BA OBP SLG OPS
American League .252 .317 .393 .710
National League .256 .318 .393 .711
MLB .254 .317 .393 .711

We'll be fine if Ross can find the happy medium between his last two seasons and put up about a .750 OPS. It will be slugging heavy as always though. :)

AmarilloRed
01-20-2008, 07:11 PM
The main key will be the pitching. The bullpen seems to be improved, and we seem to have improved depth in the starting rotation. It is very important that the young starters keep us competitive, however.

XU Lou
01-20-2008, 07:36 PM
Yes the Reds have the talent but I don't think that talent will ferment until 2009.

Vada Pinson Fan
01-20-2008, 11:41 PM
The Cubs have too much talent for the current Reds of today to overtake. I do believe the Reds can move ahead of the Brewers in '08 if the Reds stay healthy and have some clutch hitting and pitching.

My prediction for order of finish in the NL Central 2008:
1- Chicago Cubs 92-70
2-Cincinnati Reds 8GB
3-Milwaukee Brewers 9 1/2 GB
4-Houston Astros 14 GB
5-St. Louis Cardinals 16 1/2 GB
6-Pittsburgh Pirates 24 GB

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 12:15 AM
Go to ESPN team sortable stats and select "As C" as the split, then look at the bottom to find:


LEAGUE AVERAGES BA OBP SLG OPS
American League .252 .317 .393 .710
National League .256 .318 .393 .711
MLB .254 .317 .393 .711

thanks. Those numbers look much closer to my ZiPS projections and Ross can easily put up that OPS with a little more luck and a batting average around .235...


We'll be fine if Ross can find the happy medium between his last two seasons and put up about a .750 OPS. It will be slugging heavy as always though. :)

Yeah, even if the OPS is a little lower than league average he is great defensively... so not a problem! :thumbup:

roby
01-21-2008, 01:47 AM
I am a Cubs fan, so obvioulsy I like their chances still. Live closer to Cincy though so I naturally follow the Reds even though I am not a fan.

The Reds definitely have some good young talent on the way, but I think things would have to go REALLY wrong with the Cubs and Brewers for the Reds to compete for the division next year. I think the future is looking up, but 2008 may be a bit too early.

Scoob: As a Cubs fan, you know that things ALWAYS go REALLY wrong for the Cubs! If you want to back a winner this year, you need to convert to the Reds. :D

Bip Roberts
01-21-2008, 01:51 AM
Cubs make the playoffs and never win the WS
Reds never make the playoffs but when they do they win the WS

Newman4
01-21-2008, 03:22 AM
Reds are solidly #2 behind the Cubs on paper. Another option at SP (Marquis, Marshall, Capuano, Zach Minor?) , RH outfield bat (Mench, Kearns?) to spell Jr. occasionally against LH and maybe another BP arm (assuming they're going to give Affeldt a chance at starting) would make them close to the Cubs. Of course, much of the key to the season is how the young players develop.....Edwin, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, Votto, Maloney, etc. If the Dominican League is any indication, EE has a chance to break out huge. His pop from the right side is vital.

I(heart)Freel
01-21-2008, 10:58 AM
I think you can look up and down the lineups in the division and see at least 1 (more likely 2) players who are starting more for their defense than their bat. I got no problem if Ross is that guy for us, seeing as how key backstop defense is.

Of course, this is assuming that AGon continues his decent hitting - thank you GABP - and doesn't turn into a liability at the plate.

But as 7-8 hitters go, I like ours as much as anyone's.

Man, I would feel soooooo much better with someone solid as our third starter. Pushes Affeldt into a role he excelled at last season and makes our bullpen one of the best in the division. With a solid 1-2-3 roto and a young (high ceiling) 4-5, I just think we could be a force both in the regular season AND in a short-series playoff.

Since FA starters are underwhelming and since the trade price for a third starter is inflated right now, maybe the thought is to see how we start the season and then go get one when your Orioles, A's, Devil Rays etc. fall hopelessly out of contention by July?

AmarilloRed
01-21-2008, 11:14 AM
Man, I would feel soooooo much better with someone solid as our third starter. Pushes Affeldt into a role he excelled at last season and makes our bullpen one of the best in the division. With a solid 1-2-3 roto and a young (high ceiling) 4-5, I just think we could be a force both in the regular season AND in a short-series playoff.

Since FA starters are underwhelming and since the trade price for a third starter is inflated right now, maybe the thought is to see how we start the season and then go get one when your Orioles, A's, Devil Rays etc. fall hopelessly out of contention by July?

The only problem with that is that Affeldt signed with the Reds with the provision he would be a starter. I think the Reds would like to buy some time for some of their young starters, and have Affeldt as the fifth starter. I think we will see Belisle and one of Bailey/Cueto/Vasquez/ in the rotation; the rest will be in AAA

UPRedsFan
01-21-2008, 11:29 AM
The Brewers have question marks in their rotation.

Sheets - is he healthy?
Bush - 5 ERA
Suppan - solid #3
Capuano - is he healthy?
Vargas - 5 ERA
Gallardo - potential but young 22
Villanueva - potential

And their pen won't be as strong without Cordero and Linebrink.

The race should be with the Cubs. All depends on our young starters I think.

scuba17
01-21-2008, 11:42 AM
Scoob: As a Cubs fan, you know that things ALWAYS go REALLY wrong for the Cubs! If you want to back a winner this year, you need to convert to the Reds. :D


Hehe...you must be one of my Reds fan friends. Never heard that before. :)

This year is the 100 anniversary party, hop on board!

I don't wish the Reds any ill will, but the Cubs are better this year.

Degenerate39
01-21-2008, 11:42 AM
I think you can look up and down the lineups in the division and see at least 1 (more likely 2) players who are starting more for their defense than their bat. I got no problem if Ross is that guy for us, seeing as how key backstop defense is.

Of course, this is assuming that AGon continues his decent hitting - thank you GABP - and doesn't turn into a liability at the plate.

But as 7-8 hitters go, I like ours as much as anyone's.

I agree with this. Gonzo did pretty good at the plate in 2007 but his son's illness hurt his preformance later in the year. Hopefully his son is healthy and Gonzo will have peace at mind. I can see Gonzo hitting 20 plus homers in GABP and play Gold Glove defense at shortstop. He'll be a good 7th or 8th hitter this year.

SMcGavin
01-21-2008, 12:16 PM
Those numbers for the average catcher seem WAY too high. That is more like an all-star catcher. I'm not sure where to find the line for a league average catcher, but ZiPS has the projected average catcher for 2008 at .258/.328/.403. The only place Ross comes up short is batting average, and I would expect that to come up thanks to his microscopic .226 BABIP last year. With a .235 average and his excellent power/defense, Ross is easily league average...

League average catcher includes all of the ABs made by a catcher, including the backup no-hit guys like Chad Moeller. The line I posted is the average STARTING catcher. And David Ross is way worse than the average starting catcher. The debate about what is average aside, a .271 OBP is a disaster and a huge drag on our offense.

Here's the data for all positions if anyone's interested:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/average-is-as-average-does/

Blue
01-21-2008, 05:00 PM
This year is the 100 anniversary party, hop on board!

I can't wait for that special moment when the team is reunited on the infield.:bowrofl:

mlbfan30
01-21-2008, 07:11 PM
League average catcher includes all of the ABs made by a catcher, including the backup no-hit guys like Chad Moeller. The line I posted is the average STARTING catcher. And David Ross is way worse than the average starting catcher. The debate about what is average aside, a .271 OBP is a disaster and a huge drag on our offense.

Here's the data for all positions if anyone's interested:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/average-is-as-average-does/

The thing is great defensive catchers are hard to get. Usually the better a catcher hits, the worse they field (with some exceptions). So while Ross did horrible at hitting, it evens out due to his defense, making him about an average catcher. Some of you may think there's no way his defense makes up for his offense, but he's shown he handles the staff very well (which is very hard to objectivlely measure). He also was on the best catchers at preventing stolen bases, and that helps with the entire staff, and especially Bailey. As much as fans complain about Ross, he's worth what he's being paid. Another thing is that you have to consider that his BABIP should increase by at least 20 and that will bump his overall numbers up. Last year his BABIP decreased by 50, and his LD rate went up by 2% over 2006.

Carolina Red
01-21-2008, 07:52 PM
I think the Reds are talented enough to contend for the Central Division as is. I think they will have to play much better defense than the last couple of years to do so. I really think last year's team wasn't nearly as bad as they looked. I think the turmoil of the managerial situation along with the heartbreaking games given up by the pen in the so many 8th innings killed the team early on. I still have some concerns though, here are a few:

My biggest concern is still the bullpen. It really hasn't changed much from last year. We have added a closer but the closer wasn't what killed us last year. Now that we can use Weathers in the 8th is a big plus. How we choose to use Affeldt will be interesting. In my opinion we need to get rid of Coffey. If Stanton has a rough start then he needs to go too. Maybe a Cueto or a Shearn in the pen for now could help.

Griffey's health is always a concern. If he goes down I worry that we have left ourselves short on outfielders that can produce enough runs now that Hamilton is gone. I personally think Hamilton would have improved this year over last. Bruce is still a possibility but I really think you will see Dunn traded this summer and that's when Bruce will come up. I don't see us spending 15-20 million a year on Adam Dunn unless we move him to 1B.

The starting rotation. Who will it be. How well will this new kid from Texas pitch. I really expect Volquez this year to be a lot like Kyle Lohse. Up and down with a few flashes of brilliance every now and then. That doesn't mean he won't get better down the road. I'm just going on what he has done in the past. I don't think a trade to Cincy is going to turn him into Tom Seaver. I think health is another issue with the starters. You have to be really lucky to get through a season without a starter getting hurt. Let's keep our fingers crossed because we don't have a lot of depth there but we are a lot better off than last season.

All those things said I'm really optimistic about the Red's future in general. The ownership really wants to win and it shows. For that I'm grateful.

SMcGavin
01-23-2008, 12:18 PM
The thing is great defensive catchers are hard to get. Usually the better a catcher hits, the worse they field (with some exceptions). So while Ross did horrible at hitting, it evens out due to his defense, making him about an average catcher. Some of you may think there's no way his defense makes up for his offense, but he's shown he handles the staff very well (which is very hard to objectivlely measure). He also was on the best catchers at preventing stolen bases, and that helps with the entire staff, and especially Bailey. As much as fans complain about Ross, he's worth what he's being paid. Another thing is that you have to consider that his BABIP should increase by at least 20 and that will bump his overall numbers up. Last year his BABIP decreased by 50, and his LD rate went up by 2% over 2006.

There is absolutely no way his defense made him an average catcher in 2007. The man was 100 points below the average OPS for a starting catcher. That is what I'm saying, it doesn't matter how good you are defensively when you have a .271 OBP. Even his supposed strong suit, power, he was below the average catcher SLG. Maybe if he was like 25 points below average on OPS but played good defense, you could make the argument he was average.

You are right that his numbers might improve in 2008 and he might get closer to being average, but he was well below average last season.

muethibp
01-23-2008, 01:00 PM
My guess is Belisle or Affedlt will be the 3rd starter and the other will be the 4th.

Whenever this statement is being made and might be the truth, the answer to the question in your subject is "No, no, a million times no."

BLEEDS
01-23-2008, 01:16 PM
On paper, and for those under contract currently:

The Reds have the Offense to win in 2008, but not the pitching.

The Reds MIGHT have the Pitching to win in 2009, but not the hitting.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
01-23-2008, 01:20 PM
League average catcher includes all of the ABs made by a catcher, including the backup no-hit guys like Chad Moeller. The line I posted is the average STARTING catcher. And David Ross is way worse than the average starting catcher. The debate about what is average aside, a .271 OBP is a disaster and a huge drag on our offense.

Here's the data for all positions if anyone's interested:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/average-is-as-average-does/

If you think those stats aren't skewed a bit, time to put down the bottle.

Took the top 25 guys with the most playing time at each position?!?!

Yep, we ALL KNOW that Catcher is ear-marked to have the 2nd best Batting Average on your team - behind your First Baseman.

:thumbdown:bash::nono::all_cohol

PEACE

-BLEEDS

SMcGavin
01-27-2008, 08:02 PM
If you think those stats aren't skewed a bit, time to put down the bottle.

Took the top 25 guys with the most playing time at each position?!?!

Yep, we ALL KNOW that Catcher is ear-marked to have the 2nd best Batting Average on your team - behind your First Baseman.

:thumbdown:bash::nono::all_cohol

PEACE

-BLEEDS

What, you think The Hardball Times is making up data? It's not like a .777 OPS is otherwordly. I don't think I'm the one who needs to put down the bottle.

namichael
01-29-2008, 09:19 PM
I think the Reds are talented enough to contend for the Central Division as is. I think they will have to play much better defense than the last couple of years to do so. I really think last year's team wasn't nearly as bad as they looked. I think the turmoil of the managerial situation along with the heartbreaking games given up by the pen in the so many 8th innings killed the team early on.

I had the opportunity to interview Jeff Brantley last week and He shares your thoughts on the Reds being ready to contend in the NL central. He doesn't see the need for anymore moves as far as trades go.

He thinks that the addition of Cordero will have a positive effect on the bullpen. Brantley's last year pitching was Cordero's first and he says that Cordero has the mentality of a closer which is something that the Reds have lacked in the recent past. He wasn't knocking Weathers, he was just stating that Cordero IS a closer and Weathers, though he did a great job, was just filling the spot.

With the emergence of Burton in the second half of the season last year, adding Cordero in the ninth could, and Weathers in the 8th I feel that I won't be going to bed and waking up ranting about as many 7th and 8th inning blowups.

kentjett
01-29-2008, 10:31 PM
We need a player that hits for average before we can make a run. We need to find a spot for Keppinger or Hopper. We have plenty of power to hit them in.