An extension for Brandon Philips?

[AmarilloRed]

The latest from John Fay:

The Reds will sign Brandon Phillips to a long-term deal before he gets close to his arbitration hearing.

It just makes too much sense not to. Players like Phillips will almost always take a lot of security for less money up front. (Aaron Harang and Adam Dunn did.)

That means the Reds probably could get Phillips for closer to the $2.7 million they're offering than the $4.2 million he's asking for this season. So don't be surprised if a three-year contract for, say, $20 million or so gets done before the Reds head south. The breakdown would be something along the lines of $3 million, $6 million and $10 million per year with $1 million to sign.

Phillips is very happy in Redsland. Remember how well he took it when the Reds renewed his contract last March?

Phillips is a guy the Reds definitely want around long-term. One of their marketing people told me he's the best guy they've ever worked with. The fact that he's on the Reds Caravan speaks to that.

Hitting .288 with 30 homers, 94 RBI and 32 steals isn't bad, either.


I was surprised to read this. I figured the Reds would take it year by year in arbitration, but it now seems they might be considering a short-term extension.

[AdamDunn]

I'd give him a four year . $3 million, $5.5 million, $8.5 million, and $10 million, plus a $12 million option for the fifth year with a $1 million buyout. Totaling $28 million over four years.

[XU Lou]

Remember this is just Fay postulating. I think a 4 year lock up of BP would be a great idea though.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

My thoughts on Brandon Phillips from another Phillips related thread:

Re: Arbitration numbers for Belisle, Philips

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*
We still have Phillips under control for another three years, and when his FA year comes up he will be going on 30 years old and leaving his prime. I see no need for a long-term contract for Phillips knowing that he will be given a contract that much overrates his value. At the very least, lets wait and see. I would rather see the extra money you propose giving him now to Derek Lowe next offseason...


At this point, Derrek Lowe is the pitcher I'm hoping the Reds flat out target after the '08 season. So saving the money this year from signing Brandon Phillips longterm is reasonable, I think the Reds would save more in the long run if you sign Phillips to "today's" prices/contracts perhaps for 5 -6years. Sure it's a risk but Phillips is one player I take that risk on. Being one of only two 2nd basemen (Soriano the other) to ever be a 30-30 guy, I definitely don't wait for him to break the bank- even while in his arbitration years.

[*BaseClogger*]

4 years for not much more than what he will get in arby is fine by me, especially if it will save us money down the road and just cost us more this season...

[Edd Roush]

Remember this is just Fay postulating. I think a 4 year lock up of BP would be a great idea though.

I hate to completely agree with a Xavier fan, the week of UD/X on anything, but Lou hits the nail right on the head.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

The Rockies signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki Sunday, agreeing to six years at $30 million total for the contract extension. At 5 million per year, I'd love to have the Reds sign Brandon Phillips to such a contract.

[dthomas24]

The Rockies signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki Sunday, agreeing to six years at $30 million total for the contract extension. At 5 million per year, I'd love to have the Reds sign Brandon Phillips to such a contract.

I'd do this in a heartbeat. BP's glove alone is worth close to this.

[jnwohio]

Remember this is just Fay postulating........


I also remember that all through August amd September and right on up until Dusty Baker was officially announced as Reds manager, Mr Fay kept telling us Dusty was right in the middle of the mix; and I think most of us thought he was just postulating then too.

He was not my favorite among the writers this past year but I think he does have some good sources. I believe he sometimes shields his sources by making things sound like speculation when actually he has more than just instinct to go by. He does this especially in the blog which by nature can be more hypothetical than a piece run as a story or feature.

[SMcGavin]

The Rockies signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki Sunday, agreeing to six years at $30 million total for the contract extension. At 5 million per year, I'd love to have the Reds sign Brandon Phillips to such a contract.

Saw that, thought it was pretty crazy. They control Tulo now for one more year than they would have. These are the years they locked up:

08: like 400K
09: like 400K
10: 4-5 mil?
11: 7 mil?
12: 10 mil?
13: free agent

(Those are just my guesses for his arb years)

That's assuming he is actually, you know, good this whole time and would end up earning those big arb paychecks. Personally I wouldn't have made the deal the Rockies did. Seems like they gave him some money they didn't have to.

[*BaseClogger*]

Saw that, thought it was pretty crazy. They control Tulo now for one more year than they would have. These are the years they locked up:

08: like 400K
09: like 400K
10: 4-5 mil?
11: 7 mil?
12: 10 mil?
13: free agent

(Those are just my guesses for his arb years)

That's assuming he is actually, you know, good this whole time and would end up earning those big arb paychecks. Personally I wouldn't have made the deal the Rockies did. Seems like they gave him some money they didn't have to.

Well, in the five years they would have already controlled him they would have paid him on average about $4.5 million. Now they pay him $5 million for each of those years (costing them a total of $2.5 million), however they get a FA year that would certainly cost more than $5 million, and they get to spread the payments out more so that it will fit into their budget better. Oh, and don't forget that there is a seventh option year...

[Dracodave]

Saw that, thought it was pretty crazy. They control Tulo now for one more year than they would have. That's assuming he is actually, you know, good this whole time and would end up earning those big arb paychecks. Personally I wouldn't have made the deal the Rockies did. Seems like they gave him some money they didn't have to.


Troy will earn that pay check with his defense alone, anything more that he can do with the bat..is a plus. Troy is simply put a defensive master. I would love to have Tulo on this team instead of Gonzo and I would pay him 5 mill a year for it. He can only get better, even if he does see some set backs.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

I'm sure the Reds realize how Tulowitzki's contract "slots" (if I can borrow that term from pro football) in the determination of what BP may receive from Cincinnati. Tulowitzki had a fine year in 2007 w/ 24hr's and 99 rbi's, however Brandon has had back to back seasons of very good numbers and likely will command more than Tulowitzki over the same period. Both players are great defensively as well.

[XU Lou]

I hate to completely agree with a Xavier fan, the week of UD/X on anything, but Lou hits the nail right on the head.

Sorry to make it so difficult for you Edd. Good luck to the Flyers I understand they will not be at full strength but it is always an exciting game.:thumbup:

[Ahhhorsepoo]

BP 7 years 52 mil i what i would sign for.. but thats just a guy who likes good hard working fun loving defensive minded baseball players..

[Bip Roberts]

7 years is a bit much id say

[AmarilloRed]

We do not know yet whether 2007 was a career year, or simply a sustained level of excellence. I would like him to do it on a regular basis before I give him a LTC that long.

[Dracodave]

We do not know yet whether 2007 was a career year, or simply a sustained level of excellence. I would like him to do it on a regular basis before I give him a LTC that long.


I would like to see OBP that is constistently higher than his average as well...due to him learning how to take walks.

[SMcGavin]

Well, in the five years they would have already controlled him they would have paid him on average about $4.5 million. Now they pay him $5 million for each of those years (costing them a total of $2.5 million), however they get a FA year that would certainly cost more than $5 million, and they get to spread the payments out more so that it will fit into their budget better. Oh, and don't forget that there is a seventh option year...

They would have paid him $4.5 mil average over the years they control if he turns out to be completely awesome. That's the most they could possibly pay. If he does turn out to be completely awesome, then you are right: the contract they signed will look pretty good because they are just barely overpaying the first five years to get that cheap year that would be in free agency. If he doesn't end up being awesome, the would-be arb numbers will be much lower, and the contract suddenly doesn't look so great. Even if he turns out to just be pretty good, maybe the arb numbers are 3-5-7. Now they overpaid those years by a lot.

This might work out OK for the Rockies, it's just a risk I wouldn't have taken. The best-case scenario for them don't even save that much money, while the worst case scenario (he ends up being bad or gets hurt) costs them a ton.

[SMcGavin]

BP 7 years 52 mil i what i would sign for.. but thats just a guy who likes good hard working fun loving defensive minded baseball players..

52 million for a guy with a career .306 OBP, for a guy whose value is largely based on athleticism and would be 34 years old at the end of that contract... sure why not?

[gedred69]

Wow! On an earlier post, I proposed the reds offer BP more than his arby # for a long term. I wasn't thinking beyond 5 years, but somebody attacked me as to why, when they already had BP for the next 3 years anyway! (Glad to see so many agree now). Seems to me if a team shows a player they want him around for a while he is a happy guy, and probably gives everything he's got. I remember Phillips stating he wanted to be to the Reds what Morgan was. Anybody got a problem with that prospect? (HOF, MVP, the hit that won game 7 in '75, and the famous SI quote, "little Joe makes Big Reds go"). BP got my attention when he said that. Not too many redszone posters old enough to remember what it felt like back then. This old man wouldn't mind that feeling again.

[*BaseClogger*]

They would have paid him $4.5 mil average over the years they control if he turns out to be completely awesome. That's the most they could possibly pay. If he does turn out to be completely awesome, then you are right: the contract they signed will look pretty good because they are just barely overpaying the first five years to get that cheap year that would be in free agency. If he doesn't end up being awesome, the would-be arb numbers will be much lower, and the contract suddenly doesn't look so great. Even if he turns out to just be pretty good, maybe the arb numbers are 3-5-7. Now they overpaid those years by a lot.

This might work out OK for the Rockies, it's just a risk I wouldn't have taken. The best-case scenario for them don't even save that much money, while the worst case scenario (he ends up being bad or gets hurt) costs them a ton.

Yeah, waiting another year would have been the more prudent decision, but as I stated before, don't forget about that seventh option year. That would mean buying out two years of free agency for below market value...

[Ahhhorsepoo]

instead the other posters here want to lock up a defenseless, and terrible situational hitter Dunn to a LTC, where he is already at the age where he starts to decline.. pretty sure its impossible to decline from zero defense though.. soo thats always a good thing.. you all would offer dunn a 5+ year contract and not BP.. its that mentality that will keep the reds watching on their couches for years late into october..

[SMcGavin]

Yeah, waiting another year would have been the more prudent decision, but as I stated before, don't forget about that seventh option year. That would mean buying out two years of free agency for below market value...

How much is that option year, and what kind of option is it? I didn't know there was an option on the deal.

[SMcGavin]

instead the other posters here want to lock up a defenseless, and terrible situational hitter Dunn to a LTC, where he is already at the age where he starts to decline.. pretty sure its impossible to decline from zero defense though.. soo thats always a good thing.. you all would offer dunn a 5+ year contract and not BP.. its that mentality that will keep the reds watching on their couches for years late into october..

1. Nobody wants to sign Dunn to a 7 year contract.
2. Dunn is 18 months older than Phillips. If Dunn is at the age where he starts to decline, guess where BP is gonna be after this season?

[Bip Roberts]

1. Nobody wants to sign Dunn to a 7 year contract.
2. Dunn is 18 months older than Phillips. If Dunn is at the age where he starts to decline, guess where BP is gonna be after this season?

Completely different body types. Dunn is primed to break down way before Phillips physically regardless of age

[AmarilloRed]

Dunn and Phillips are in different situations. Dunn has had about 4-5 years of 40 HR and 90 RBIs, and is a proven run producer. Brandon Phillips has just finished one very good year. You give LTCs to players who consistantly produce on the field over a period of time, and you can not say that about Philips yet. Still, there is every reason to believe Brandon will produce at a higher level than most second baseman, and for that reason a LTC should certainly be considered.

[BLEEDS]

I don't understand the rush to sign a guy who just had his FIRST breakout season, when we Already control him for 4 years?!?!

Why give a guy a $10M salary - GUARANTEED - 3 years from now, when you have no idea what he might be next year, let alone in 3 years, other than he will FOR SURE be on the wrong side of 30 then. Meanwhile, Dunn you can pencil in for 40/100 with ~100 walks and a .400 OBP and .850+ OPS, and you don't think he deserves $15M.

I'd go 2 years with a 3rd team option, that's it. and DEFINITELY not $20M like what Fay suggested.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Ahhhorsepoo]

Brandon Phillips offers more than offense people.. we as a fan base need to no longer accept mediocrity in the field.. Brandon Phillips is a top notch player.. and just because we have him for "4 years" doesn't mean you shouldn't sign him for a 3 year extension onto that..

As said before Dunns body will breakdown far before B-Phills barring a horrible accident..

Also except for the beginning of the year 2 years ago really b-Phill has been exceptional since he came to Cincy.. If you honestly think locking dunn up to a LTC is more important then B-Phill is.. then you have serious problems... It has been widley known that Dunn has more value here than anywhere else because the fools that go down and cheer for him, make our stupid front office people think he is worth something.. it should tell you something when NOONE in the country is willing to give up anything, for him.. We have tried to trad ehim the last 3 years, and get real takers..

[*BaseClogger*]

do we have a place where we have the Dunn controversy archived?

[Ahhhorsepoo]

which controversy is that?

[Bip Roberts]

Dunn is a controversy on pretty much every subject. Neither side listens to each other on the debate and it just becomes a cat fight

[Ahhhorsepoo]

I think it is more some people place more emphasis on defense than others, and others like to see a high BA, while others like to see monster home runs.. just depends on what kind of ball you like.. or what you think works..

[Bip Roberts]

I think it is more some people place more emphasis on defense than others, and others like to see a high BA, while others like to see monster home runs.. just depends on what kind of ball you like.. or what you think works..

Stop before it gets started. Like i said neither side will listen and when they do they just start ignoring anything and blowing every comment out of proportion.

[Ahhhorsepoo]

thats why i didn't go into detail about how i feel, i was just stating it is isn't people not listening.. because both side probably know the stats and everything.. just some people place emphasis on different points..

[BLEEDS]

I think that most people would rather give an extension to Dunn than to BP.

Dunn has at least proven what he can do for the last 4-5 years, while BP has done it exactly once.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[SMcGavin]

I think that most people would rather give an extension to Dunn than to BP.

Dunn has at least proven what he can do for the last 4-5 years, while BP has done it exactly once.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I think that's a succinct way of putting it without getting into a the numbers or a huge debate. Nicely said.

[Bip Roberts]

I think that most people would rather give an extension to Dunn than to BP.

Dunn has at least proven what he can do for the last 4-5 years, while BP has done it exactly once.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kinda like how you would rather us go get Jon Leiber than giving our young guys starts? More predictable YAY!

[BLEEDS]

Kinda like how you would rather us go get Jon Leiber than giving our young guys starts? More predictable YAY!

Looks like WK decided he'd like to give those starts to Affeldt instead, but I guess that's 1/2 a dozen of one, 6 of the other...

:pimp:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

Looks like WK decided he'd like to give those starts to Affeldt instead, but I guess that's 1/2 a dozen of one, 6 of the other...

:pimp:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Yea instead of an old guy who is injury prone and is terrible we got a young guy who is coming off a decent year who might last more than 3 starts

[BLEEDS]

Yea instead of an old guy who is injury prone and is terrible we got a young guy who is coming off a decent year who might last more than 3 starts

Agreed. Try not to hijack the thread.

Move on Francis.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

Agreed. Try not to hijack the thread.

Move on Francis.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Explain this Francis comment to me...

[BLEEDS]

Explain this Francis comment to me...

You've never heard the quote "Calm down Francis" ?!?!

How old are you?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

You've never heard the quote "Calm down Francis" ?!?!

How old are you?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

im 24 and no I havent ever heard the quote.

[BLEEDS]

im 24 and no I havent ever heard the quote.

It's actually "Lighten up Francis", it's from the movie "Stripes" with Bill Murray.

1981, so before you were born...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

It's actually "Lighten up Francis", it's from the movie "Stripes" with Bill Murray.

1981, so before you were born...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ive seen stripes, i guess i just dont remember the line. It has been a few years though.

[BLEEDS]

ive seen stripes, i guess i just dont remember the line. It has been a few years though.

Psycho: The name's Francis Sawyer, but everybody calls me Psycho. Any of you guys call me Francis, and I'll kill you.
Leon: Ooooooh.
Psycho: You just made the list, buddy. Also, I don't like no one touching my stuff. So just keep your meat-hooks off. If I catch any of you guys in my stuff, I'll kill you. And I don't like nobody touching me. Any of you homos touch me, and I'll kill you.
Sergeant Hulka: Lighten up, Francis.

[Bip Roberts]

Ah now i remember

[Vada Pinson Fan]

Man, I loved Stripes!!! Probably my second favorite comedy of all time behind only Animal House. Bill Murray, Harold Ramis, John Candy and Warren Oates-(Sgt. Hulka) were awesome!!! Sorry for being off-topic.

[BLEEDS]

If you want to see a contract for comps, let's look at Robinson Cano:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-yankees-cano&prov=ap&type=lgns

Cano and Yankees close to $30 million, 4-year contract

includes two option years.


Cano is a bit more "proven" than BP, and is much better hitter for power, average, and OBP/OPS.

Fay threw out 3 years $20M which is highway robbery compared to what the Yankees - yes I said YANKEES - are giving to Cano.

I'd be all about the Option years for Brandon. He could easily go back to slugging .~420 (his average and 2006 number).

PEACE

-BLEEDS