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View Full Version : Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF



dougdirt
01-21-2008, 11:16 PM
Vote between these two players only

*BaseClogger*
01-21-2008, 11:38 PM
classic upside vs. safe bet

mth123
01-22-2008, 05:11 AM
I think there are a few better choices at this point than either of these guys, but I'll vote for Reed in a "say no to Janish" type of a way.

M2
01-22-2008, 09:20 AM
Janish got thoroughly exposed in the upper minors last year (he currently owns a .325 SLG in AA and AAA). Juan Castro might be able to take his lunch money.

Meanwhile Reed made the Pioneer League top 20, not a bad accomplishment given that it's a league usually dominated by college talents.

Danny Serafini
01-22-2008, 09:26 AM
I know Janish will play in the Major Leagues at some point, very likely this year. I don't know that Reed will. That's the difference for me.

kheidg-
01-22-2008, 09:32 AM
I know Janish will play in the Major Leagues at some point, very likely this year. I don't know that Reed will. That's the difference for me.

My thoughts exactly.

camisadelgolf
01-22-2008, 09:57 AM
Justin Reed has the potential to be a star, and Paul Janish has the potential to be average. Average Major Leaguers are everywhere and can be had cheaply, relatively speaking. Personally, I'd rather have Torii Hunter + Reggie Abercrombie instead of Tad Iguchi + Melvin Mora. Granted, having Iguchi and Mora makes you average at two positions (imo), but Hunter and Abercrombie give you a star and AAA fodder.

It's doubtful that Reed will become a star, but it's not impossible, and unlike Janish, he has a chance to become one. If Reed blossoms into a Torii Hunter- or even a Carl Everett-type, there is a very slim few who could replace him at the same level. If Janish "blossoms" into a Mickey Morandini-type, well, there are many more players of equal value available for practically nothing in trade or just a little money in free agency.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that very few teams have a lack of average players, but almost every team has a lack of stars, and that's why I put so much emphasis on high-ceiling prospects. For that reason, Justin Reed was a fairly easy choice for me.

M2
01-22-2008, 10:37 AM
I know Janish will play in the Major Leagues at some point, very likely this year. I don't know that Reed will. That's the difference for me.

I'm not so sure about that. Janish was horrific in AA and AAA last year. He profiles as a guy who won't be able to hold down any sort of job in the bigs (as opposed to Chris Dickerson who very well could be a 5th OF type).

Janish, given what he's done to date, would be lucky to have as much of a major league career as Gookie Dawkins, with Rainer Olmedo's major league service time a seemingly unapproachable goal.

Reed may not do any better in the coming years, but he put some considerable tools into action in 2007 as a 19-year-old kid. A good year in Dayton and he'll have gained some serious prospect status.

lollipopcurve
01-22-2008, 10:51 AM
Nice duel here. Across the prospect spectrum, I think it's important to have both kinds of players -- the "baseball players," to use a George Grandism, and the "tools" guys.

I took Janish here because I think his plate discipline will allow him to improve some as a hitter. But M2 makes a good case for Reed, and I agree that a standout year in Dayton could get him to the top ten next year. To be an everyday player he's going to have to go the OBP route, and he's got some work to do there, but as a kid who didn't play a lot of baseball growing up, you have to think he's got a chance to make important strides. Right now I'm suffering from a little Kenny Lewis hangover with this kind of player, so I still fear he could hit a wall at any time, especially with that K rate.

Danny Serafini
01-22-2008, 11:30 AM
I'm not so sure about that. Janish was horrific in AA and AAA last year. He profiles as a guy who won't be able to hold down any sort of job in the bigs (as opposed to Chris Dickerson who very well could be a 5th OF type).

Janish, given what he's done to date, would be lucky to have as much of a major league career as Gookie Dawkins, with Rainer Olmedo's major league service time a seemingly unapproachable goal.

Reed may not do any better in the coming years, but he put some considerable tools into action in 2007 as a 19-year-old kid. A good year in Dayton and he'll have gained some serious prospect status.

I don't expect Janish to ever hit. He may be Juan Castro lite. But his glove will get him some Major League time. If any infielder gets hurt in Cincinnati this year, Janish is getting the call.

Justin Reed may develop into something better. He's got the higher ceiling with the bat, I don't think that's in question. But the percentages also say most minor leaguers don't make it to the Majors, and he's a long ways away. Since the point of the minor leagues is to produce Major Leaguers, at this point in the rankings my personal stance is to go with the guy most likely to make it.

camisadelgolf
01-22-2008, 12:15 PM
Personally, I like Justin Reed more, but I can certainly understand why someone would go with Janish. I wouldn't be disappointed with either prospect being #29 (although there are probably a dozen prospects or so I'd rank ahead of those two).

Patrick Bateman
01-22-2008, 12:19 PM
I don't expect Janish to ever hit. He may be Juan Castro lite. But his glove will get him some Major League time. If any infielder gets hurt in Cincinnati this year, Janish is getting the call.

Justin Reed may develop into something better. He's got the higher ceiling with the bat, I don't think that's in question. But the percentages also say most minor leaguers don't make it to the Majors, and he's a long ways away. Since the point of the minor leagues is to produce Major Leaguers, at this point in the rankings my personal stance is to go with the guy most likely to make it.

I think of the rankings as "who would I rather have in my farm system". In this case, Janish at best offers nothing that a minor league free agent can't offer. I know that people here can't wait to get Juan Castro off the roster, and always have, and to me, that's basically Janish's upside. IMO, he is without value, in that a replacement for Janish could be had for basically nothing.

As for Reed, he could become a valuable commodity. I have serious reservations about him (ie. contact rate), but he can field (likely in a skill position), speed, and has a touch of patience at the plate. That type of package could make him a nice starting CF if he comes together. Those types of guys have some value and could not be acquired simply for nothing. Janish may be more likely to make the majors, but that's mainly due to lack of infield depth on the Reds part than any discernable skill that Janish has. Not to mention that you could find a dozen guys that could do what Janish will for zip.

Kc61
01-22-2008, 12:21 PM
Reed is apparently a great athlete. That doesn't mean he will be a great player, but other than Chris Dickerson I don't know how many such athletes the Reds have in the system. If he learns to hit, an athlete like this can also have a real impact defensively and on the bases. He had a .371 OBP in rookie ball which shows that he has some idea up there and doesn't just hack.

I have Reed over Janish, but Janish hit decently (.358 OBP) at AA, just not in AAA. He could adjust and hit better at AAA next year. He'll never be a great hitter, but he has had passable hitting years at some levels.

I think Reed rates higher for sure, but both are ok as top 30 picks.

After Reed comes off the board, I'm advocating Jordan Smith. Doesn't get the hype, but good prospect.

RedsManRick
01-22-2008, 01:15 PM
Janish. He's a defensive whiz who can take a wal Sure he's a backup IF who might luck in to a starting gig for a season sometime once. But Reed hasn't played a game above rookie ball and has a lot of hurdles to climb over. And while he did well, it's not like he was destroying the league or anything.

I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.

camisadelgolf
01-22-2008, 01:57 PM
Reed is apparently a great athlete. That doesn't mean he will be a great player, but other than Chris Dickerson I don't know how many such athletes the Reds have in the system.

Here is a list of some other athletic outfield prospects in the Reds' system:

Jay Bruce
Drew Stubbs
Sean Henry
Brandon Menchaca
Shaun Cumberland
Chris Heisey
Jerry Gil
Cody Strait
Denis Phipps
B.J. Szymanski

Kc61
01-22-2008, 02:11 PM
Here is a list of some other athletic outfield prospects in the Reds' system:

Jay Bruce
Drew Stubbs
Sean Henry
Brandon Menchaca
Shaun Cumberland
Chris Heisey
Jerry Gil
Cody Strait
Denis Phipps
B.J. Szymanski

These guys may be athletic players, but Reed is reputedly a truly superior athlete. He was a high school running back with football scholarship offers. Dickerson is also a truly superior athlete, already taken in this "draft."

dougdirt
01-22-2008, 02:51 PM
I would say that Dickerson and Stubbs are the best athletes in the system. Reed would probably be near the top of the next group.

BRM
01-22-2008, 02:56 PM
Janish. He's a defensive whiz who can take a wal Sure he's a backup IF who might luck in to a starting gig for a season sometime once. But Reed hasn't played a game above rookie ball and has a lot of hurdles to climb over. And while he did well, it's not like he was destroying the league or anything.

I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.

So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.

dougdirt
01-22-2008, 03:08 PM
So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.

I think in the Lotzkar/Mesoraco thing, the potential alone gets them ranked where they are and Soto has shown the ability to hit quite well, albeit in limited time. Reed struggled big time (although he certainly was quite unlucky in 2006) his first season and while he rebounded pretty well, there are still some lingering questions with him.

BRM
01-22-2008, 03:13 PM
I think in the Lotzkar/Mesoraco thing, the potential alone gets them ranked where they are and Soto has shown the ability to hit quite well, albeit in limited time. Reed struggled big time (although he certainly was quite unlucky in 2006) his first season and while he rebounded pretty well, there are still some lingering questions with him.

Now that argument I can buy and it's probably where RMR was coming from.

AmarilloRed
01-22-2008, 03:26 PM
I voted for Reed because of Janish's underwhelming numbers at AAA. It was his first year, but he will have to hit better to make the majors.

RedsManRick
01-22-2008, 03:48 PM
So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.

Well, not to be obtuse, but what makes those guys 10, 11, and 16 but Reed 29 at best?

I'd say at that very low level, performance is less important than scouting report.

I see a 4th round pick out of High School who has played two years in Rookie ball. Outside of a decent walk rate, nothing jumps out at me in the stats. I don't see anybody talking about how slick a fielder is, how nice his swing is, or even what a great frame he's got. He just gets the athlete tag. I'm sure Reed is a great athlete, but as others have pointed out, being a great athlete and being a great baseball player are two very different things.

Maybe if I was hearing more about why he's a good baseball player I'd have more confidence in taking him over a guy who at least can play major league defense, if nothing else.

Kc61
01-22-2008, 04:36 PM
Outside of a decent walk rate, nothing jumps out at me in the stats.

Maybe if I was hearing more about why he's a good baseball player I'd have more confidence in taking him over a guy who at least can play major league defense, if nothing else.

When an athlete like this has a .371 OBP and .799 OPS at age 19, he shows a lot of promise. This kid just turned twenty in November and has already put up those numbers -- showing marked improvement from his first year.

There are 22 and 23 year old prospects rated much higher because of performances at Billings or, in somecases, Dayton. Reed's a kid who played at 19 and was pretty successful at the two Rookie ball levels and appears ready to play at Dayton as a very young prospect.

RedsManRick
01-22-2008, 06:12 PM
When an athlete like this has a .371 OBP and .799 OPS at age 19, he shows a lot of promise. This kid just turned twenty in November and has already put up those numbers -- showing marked improvement from his first year.

There are 22 and 23 year old prospects rated much higher because of performances at Billings or, in somecases, Dayton. Reed's a kid who played at 19 and was pretty successful at the two Rookie ball levels and appears ready to play at Dayton as a very young prospect.

So why is he all they way down at 29? Shouldn't he be up in the teens with the rest of the Rookie ball crowd?

Kc61
01-22-2008, 07:41 PM
So why is he all they way down at 29? Shouldn't he be up in the teens with the rest of the Rookie ball crowd?


Probably because his first year, 2006, when he was 18, was not good offensively. But Reed improved much in 2007.

Superdude
01-22-2008, 08:03 PM
Reed isn't all that big. Apparently he's got some speed, but as far as offensive production goes, I'm not one to put much stock at all into speed unless the guy is absurdly fast and capable of being a major stolen base threat. I just think people are falsely assuming "star potential" from the guy just because he was labeled as a good "athlete". Norris Hopper seems like a pretty good athlete too. That doesn't mean he has great tools when it comes to baseball though.

mth123
01-22-2008, 08:24 PM
IMO Reed hasn't done anything to show that he is a future major leaguer. Which is greater than Janish who has enough of a track record to show that he isn't really. Janish probably has a career as a AAA MI who will probably see some big league time occasionally when his organization is decimated by MI injuries and hopelessly out of it or dumps many of its players in a rebuild move. But I don't see him ever having a role in a "we want him on our major league team" kind of a way.

NC Reds
01-22-2008, 10:00 PM
Janish has two MLB-plus tools now - glove and arm. That places him ahead of Reed for me.

His bat was poor in 2007, but he did hit OK in 2006 (.304 BA, .830 OPS between low A, high A, and AA).

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Paul%20Janish&pos=&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=457926

I am not convinced that 2007 is his offensive ceiling.

M2
01-23-2008, 08:23 AM
I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.

Looks to me like Janish got weeded out in AA and AAA last season. He all but proved he's got no major league future (there is no team that wants Juan Castro Lite).

Reed may get weeded out in the future, but he could also flourish before that, something I don't think anyone reasonably expects from Janish. My take is that, of the two, Reed's the one who profiles better when it comes to having some sort of future value.

camisadelgolf
01-23-2008, 03:50 PM
Well, not to be obtuse, but what makes those guys 10, 11, and 16 but Reed 29 at best?

Devin Mesoraco, Kyle Lotzkar, and Todd Frazier were first round draft picks, and unless an organization's farm system is stacked (as it is in the Reds' case), they shouldn't have much trouble cracking an organization's top-ten prospects list. Neftali Soto was a third-round pick, which usually means he would need at least a full year of professional baseball before being considered a top-ten prospect, but scouts have been raving about his talent and he has had good numbers to match.

Justin Reed, however, hasn't yet had those numbers. Supposedly, he got a late start to baseball (from what I've heard, he didn't start playing baseball until his mid-teens) and his biggest knock has always been that he may be too raw and will possibly never make up for his late start.

Being athletic raises hype while having a lack of success and/or experience brings it down. To this point, being a fourth-rounder with very limited success, Justin Reed has had little hype.

Last year, Juan Francisco probably would have ranked somewhat similarly to Justin Reed, but Francisco busted out in a big way in 2007 while Reed advanced only a little. Unless Reed does something great, he will always be considered a lower prospect because he wasn't signed with the hype of a first round talent, and the more time that passes without encouraging numbers, the lower down the list Reed will fall.

RedsManRick
01-23-2008, 03:55 PM
Looks to me like Janish got weeded out in AA and AAA last season. He all but proved he's got no major league future (there is no team that wants Juan Castro Lite).

Reed may get weeded out in the future, but he could also flourish before that, something I don't think anyone reasonably expects from Janish. My take is that, of the two, Reed's the one who profiles better when it comes to having some sort of future value.

Janish had a .358 OBP in AA. Yes, he's got no power to speak of, but that's hardly being weeded out.

In AAA, he had a BABIP of .248. I'll be the first to admit that that's likely not all bad luck and partially the result of a deserved low LD%. However, bump it up to just .280 and that .221/.278/.318 line becomes .251/.308/.350. Yes, that's not good either, but it's better and that's for his first time in Louisville.

I have no illusions that he'd ever be anything more than a backup up utility IF with a slick glove; the next Juan Castro. But this is a Juan Castro who can take a walk, meaning he might not be completely useless at the plate.

All that said, I still don't understand why Reed is a guy around #30 while Soto and Moreseco are so much higher.

Superdude
01-23-2008, 04:08 PM
All that said, I still don't understand why Reed is a guy around #30 while Soto and Moreseco are so much higher.


Some good prospects, like Dorn for example, get love from the stat guys. Other good prospects like Soto and Mesoraco get love from the scouts. Great prospects like Bruce get drooled over by both. While you can find postive things in his scouting report and stat line, nothing about Reed really pops out at this point to make him a top prospect.

*BaseClogger*
01-23-2008, 11:13 PM
I'd say Reed took this one :(