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View Full Version : I'm glad the Reds didn't sell low on Bailey



The Snow Chief
01-28-2008, 04:23 PM
If the Ms and Os trade goes through (who knows), it will mean that the Reds did not sell low on Bailey (at least for now). In early last season, Bailey was as untouchable as Bruce, maybe more so. The guy has 9 starts, some of them while injured, and all of a sudden he has all kinds of question marks. There are plenty of great pitchers who struggled in their first few starts. They also had things the scouts said needed to improve.

I don't claim to follow or know baseball as much as some people on this site, but from what I have seen and read about Bailey, he has the fastball and the breaking ball to be a #1 or #2 starter. It would not surprise me to see him have a breakout 2008 and pitch around league average ERA for his first full season. That may not seem like turning the corner, but in Aaron Harang's first full season, he put up an ERA of about 5.30 and there are very few I would trade Aaron Harang for. If Bailey can have that breakout year and Arroyo does not return to 2006 form, I think you could see him challenging for the #2 spot in 2009.

Of course, you never know with pitchers. However, I think Bailey will be a good one and that we will be glad we hung onto him.

AmarilloRed
01-28-2008, 04:31 PM
He has 2 plus pitches(fastball and curve) and an average changeup. His stuff is good enough to be a #1 or #2; he simply has to work on his command of those pitches and his control. This upcoming year will tell the tale.

kbrake
01-28-2008, 04:33 PM
I think command is an issue but I think way too many people are forgetting that Bailey struggled with a groin injury for most of 2007. If Bailey stays healthy in 2008, and I see no indication why he wouldn't, I think we will see a much improved Homer Bailey.

Bip Roberts
01-28-2008, 04:34 PM
Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.

AmarilloRed
01-28-2008, 04:49 PM
I think command is an issue but I think way too many people are forgetting that Bailey struggled with a groin injury for most of 2007. If Bailey stays healthy in 2008, and I see no indication why he wouldn't, I think we will see a much improved Homer Bailey.

A comparison of how Bailey pitched when he was healthy vs. injured:


Status IP H K BB ERA WHIP
Healthy 93.3 67 71 42 2.89 1.17
Injured 19.3 25 16 18 10.24 2.24

kbrake
01-28-2008, 04:52 PM
Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.

I agree with your thoughts but I still have lots of fear that we will come north with Freel in center, Affeldt in the rotation, Hatteberg at first base and Mike Stanton and Juan Castro will still have jobs.

Those things don't happen and win or lose its still going to be worth watching to at least see what Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Votto can do.

The Snow Chief
01-28-2008, 04:57 PM
Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.


I'm with you. I understand the desire to get much better right away. However, sometimes the price is just too high. People say we have been rebuilding for years. I don't think so. We have sucked for years. There is a difference between sucking and rebuilding.

BLEEDS
01-28-2008, 04:59 PM
I think he really did well when he came back after his injury.

However, his best games came against Oakland and SFO, two teams that at the time had an offense not any better than those he faced in Louisville...

I like his stuff, but it's still not near consistent enough. Hopefully he pitches himself into the rotation, but he's still got a lot of learning to do. HOPEFULLY he learned he can't just shake off the catcher to get to his fastball everytime he gets behind, that was a formula for disaster in the limited time he had in the BIGS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

chettt
01-28-2008, 05:00 PM
It wasn't that long ago - Brandon Claussen was our " Young Gun". Now, we have a corral full of "Young Guns" - Bailey, Cueto, Valquez, Livingston, Maloney, Bray - the list goes on & on. What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

podgejeff_
01-28-2008, 05:08 PM
I think the consensus was that he never regained his stuff after a surgery he had. So you could probably put it down as injury.

BLEEDS
01-28-2008, 05:12 PM
A comparison of how Bailey pitched when he was healthy vs. injured:


Status IP H K BB ERA WHIP
Healthy 93.3 67 71 42 2.89 1.17
Injured 19.3 25 16 18 10.24 2.24

Where did you accumulate those from? Combining Minor league innings?

He pitched 45.3 innings over 9 games in the Majors in 2007.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
01-28-2008, 05:13 PM
It wasn't that long ago - Brandon Claussen was our " Young Gun". Now, we have a corral full of "Young Guns" - Bailey, Cueto, Valquez, Livingston, Maloney, Bray - the list goes on & on. What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

Not sure, I know he had that rotator cuff problem in AAA. I don't know if it was that he never was able to come back from that/ However, I don't think he was ever projected to be in Bailey's league. I think many thought he would be an mlb starting pitcher, but I don't recall him being discussed as a future #1 starter. We just had so few SP prospects at the time, he looked like the class of the group.

The Snow Chief
01-28-2008, 05:17 PM
I guess the other thing is that besides the injury question, 9 games is just not a very significant sample size. Harang had an ERA of 5.04 after 8 games this season and went on to have a top 5 season among NL starters IMO.

kbrake
01-28-2008, 05:21 PM
I believe Claussen had Tommy John while still with the Yankees and I think after that he was never projected the way Bailey has been. Maybe before the surgery but pretty sure not nearly the expectations afterwards.

jimbo
01-28-2008, 05:38 PM
What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

I always though Claussen had decent stuff, he just didn't have the mental game needed to succeed in the majors. He pitched too "soft," IMO.

Bigredfan#1
01-28-2008, 06:02 PM
I felt all along it would have been a big mistake to trade Bailey and other prospects for Bedard. I know it had to be tempting to do so and maybe the O's would not take Bailey and would take a BRUCE package, I am glad we did not trade him and hope we don't trade him!

Claussen was a prospect but never in the category of Bailey! He was rated 37th by BA in 2002. I liked im and hated he did not pan out.

gedred69
01-28-2008, 07:39 PM
I think he really did well when he came back after his injury.

However, his best games came against Oakland and SFO, two teams that at the time had an offense not any better than those he faced in Louisville...

I like his stuff, but it's still not near consistent enough. Hopefully he pitches himself into the rotation, but he's still got a lot of learning to do. HOPEFULLY he learned he can't just shake off the catcher to get to his fastball everytime he gets behind, that was a formula for disaster in the limited time he had in the BIGS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I agree. He better learn to listen to his catcher. Don't remember which game, but it was when the wheels fell off, Ross came to the mound to say something and Homer blew him off, turning his back. Listening to Brantley, and a bud' who pitched in the minors, both guys said of his curve, "he better not throw it for a strike". Keep it out of the hitters' range and it is a serviceable pitch they said. (Hope his change develops). Mario Soto did well w/ fastball and change.

crazybob60
01-28-2008, 07:42 PM
Its also great to see that the Reds didn't sell out on Bailey as well. Lets see what he can do with at the very least one year or at least close to a year in the league being completely healthy, because we all know last year he wasn't and he is still very, very, very young!

*BaseClogger*
01-28-2008, 08:14 PM
The main thing that really worried me about Bailey last year was that even when he was healthy in AAA he was not striking very many hitters out. I don't mind the control problems, as I expect them from 21 year old flamethrowers, but the lack of nastiness from him against minor leaguers when healthy really bothers me. This leads me to prefer Johnny Cueto, but that is an arguement for another thread on another day...

redhawk61
01-28-2008, 08:20 PM
The main thing that really worried me about Bailey last year was that even when he was healthy in AAA he was not striking very many hitters out. I don't mind the control problems, as I expect them from 21 year old flamethrowers, but the lack of nastiness from him against minor leaguers when healthy really bothers me. This leads me to prefer Johnny Cueto, but that is an arguement for another thread on another day...

"Nobody likes strike outs, they're boring and Facist"

AmarilloRed
01-28-2008, 09:55 PM
Where did you accumulate those from? Combining Minor league innings?

He pitched 45.3 innings over 9 games in the Majors in 2007.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

This is from an article by Doug Gray, otherwise known as Dougdirt:

Today I was writing an article on Reds prospects for another site and while doing my research I decided to take a look at some of the numbers. Lets note that Bailey first hurt his groin June 26th in Philadelphia in the bullpen session before the game. Using the games he pitched from that point forward until he went on the DL versus all other games this year he put up these numbers between AAA and Cincinnati during those differing time periods.

I really think that if we want to look to what Bailey may do next year we need to really focus on the top line. Sure, he won’t put up that kind of line in Cincinnati next year but we shouldn’t try to project his 2008 off of what his overall numbers looked like last year when there obviously was a stretch of injured games that influenced his numbers big time that were clearly unlike the rest of his season.

BLEEDS
01-29-2008, 10:35 AM
This is from an article by Doug Gray, otherwise known as Dougdirt:

Today I was writing an article on Reds prospects for another site and while doing my research I decided to take a look at some of the numbers. Lets note that Bailey first hurt his groin June 26th in Philadelphia in the bullpen session before the game. Using the games he pitched from that point forward until he went on the DL versus all other games this year he put up these numbers between AAA and Cincinnati during those differing time periods.

I really think that if we want to look to what Bailey may do next year we need to really focus on the top line. Sure, he won’t put up that kind of line in Cincinnati next year but we shouldn’t try to project his 2008 off of what his overall numbers looked like last year when there obviously was a stretch of injured games that influenced his numbers big time that were clearly unlike the rest of his season.

So, all of that, when a "YES" would have been sufficient... ;)

I don't care if he dominates AAA pitching, what can he do against Major Leaguers. So far, not too much.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
01-29-2008, 11:22 AM
So, all of that, when a "YES" would have been sufficient... ;)

I don't care if he dominates AAA pitching, what can he do against Major Leaguers. So far, not too much.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I would put more stock in a young pitcher's first three years in the minors than in his first nine starts in the bigs. If after a full healthy season in the bigs, he is still struggling, then I think you can legitimately start to be concerned. Nine starts, even when healthy, is much too small a sample size and for most pitchers, even those that go on to be aces, there is an adjustment period.

It's been so long since the Reds have developed a good starting pitching prospect that many fans unfairly expect him to come in and dominate in the first handful of starts.

*BaseClogger*
01-29-2008, 02:11 PM
I would put more stock in a young pitcher's first three years in the minors than in his first nine starts in the bigs. If after a full healthy season in the bigs, he is still struggling, then I think you can legitimately start to be concerned. Nine starts, even when healthy, is much too small a sample size and for most pitchers, even those that go on to be aces, there is an adjustment period.

It's been so long since the Reds have developed a good starting pitching prospect that many fans unfairly expect him to come in and dominate in the first handful of starts.

what about the lack of strikeouts he was accumulating in AAA at the beginning of the year before the injury?

BLEEDS
01-29-2008, 02:43 PM
what about the lack of strikeouts he was accumulating in AAA at the beginning of the year before the injury?

yeah, THAT I care about - unless he was working on a complementary pitch or two, which by all accounts, he wasn't or at least hasn't developed yet.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
01-29-2008, 03:48 PM
what about the lack of strikeouts he was accumulating in AAA at the beginning of the year before the injury?

Well, I think it's important and much more so than 9 starts in the bigs. We'll see if it's an abberation or a sign of things to come. Last season he was still basically a kid, even compared to most AAA hitters. He's having to learn how to strike out AAA and MLBers who have much more experience hitting good pitching than he has pitching to good hitters.

I still don't think it made sense to move Bailey after this year. After 2006 when he has value off the charts, maybe. I just don't see teams giving up value commensurate to his potential this off-season. If that is the case, I'd rather try to develop the potential into results here than sell him at a huge discount at the first time his crap begins to stink.

namichael
01-30-2008, 10:11 AM
With this great group of up and comers in our organization, I can see the beginning of a new era for the Reds. An era of winning and the development of a championship ball club. There are still a few pieces of the yet to fall into place. But when they do, I think the Reds will once again be a major force in baseball.

UPRedsFan
01-30-2008, 11:24 AM
I think Bailey will be fine in '08. If you look closely at his performance last year and remove the 2 bad games when he was obviously hurt and shouldn't have been out there trying to pitch, his line would have been:

40 IP 30 hits 20 BB 3.6 ERA 1.25 WHIP

I think by seasons end Arroyo could be our 3rd or 4th best starter

kentjett
01-30-2008, 12:03 PM
I watched a couple of games that he pitched when he was injured and he was only throwing between 88-91 mph. He knew he didn't have the velocity to throw by ML batters and started trying to place it too much. After he came back from injury he was hitting 94-95 mph and his #'s drastically dropped. He'll be in our line-up this year and if he keeps his ERA below 5, it would be a successful year.

wlf WV
01-30-2008, 12:24 PM
The least Bailey will be careerwise is a #3,barring injury.His maturity level woories me somewhat,although he young.His delivery is repeatable,therefore control should come.Cueto seems poised already.I'm excited for the competition of starters.The odds are more in our favor this spring,because of numbers.

Bip Roberts
01-30-2008, 12:25 PM
Why do people worry about his maturity level? Is there something I just haven't heard?