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BLEEDS
01-31-2008, 04:00 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-reds-belisle&prov=ap&type=lgns

Reds RHP Belisle gets $1.25 million deal, avoids arbitration

January 31, 2008

CINCINNATI (AP) -- Right-hander Matt Belisle agreed to a one-year, $1.25 million contract Thursday, leaving the Cincinnati Reds with one player left in arbitration.

The 27-year-old Belisle went 8-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 30 starts last season. He is one of several pitchers who will compete for a spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

Belisle made $390,000 last season and was eligible for arbitration for the first time. He asked for $1.65 million, and the club offered $1 million. His deal includes a chance to make up to $100,000 in bonuses for innings pitched.

Belisle pitched a career-high 177 2-3 innings last season. He would get paid an additional $25,000 bonus for reaching 175, 185, 200 and 210 innings.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips is the only Reds player left in arbitration. Phillips asked for $4.2 million, and the Reds countered with a $2.7 million offer.

*BaseClogger*
01-31-2008, 04:03 PM
He is one of several pitchers who will compete for a spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

At this point, he is pretty much assured the #3 (as it should be)...

Bip Roberts
01-31-2008, 04:03 PM
I expect a very solid year from Matt.

bounty37h
01-31-2008, 04:12 PM
Indeed. A steal considering what the other threads are predicting Lohse will ask for for one year (haha, sorry, couldnt resist seeing that Bip and Base both posted on this one :))

Stephenk29
01-31-2008, 04:13 PM
agreed with all of the above posts. Unless his spring is something horrendous how can he not be in the rotation?

Bip Roberts
01-31-2008, 04:18 PM
I understand the hate towards Belisle a little, but what I dont understand is how people think he is only going to get worse. He had a pretty solid year for a guy making his 1st attempt at starting.

BLEEDS
01-31-2008, 05:06 PM
Heck, he might even approach League Average this year, if we're lucky.

Now all we have to do is hope Volquez/Bailey/Affeldt can approach Belisle's numbers from last year, and we can maybe approach the same level of SUCK in the starting rotation we had in 2007.

Right now, the only improved SP position seems to be the #5. Start printing off your playoff tickets!!
:lastyear:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
01-31-2008, 05:14 PM
:rolleyes:

redsfanmia
01-31-2008, 05:46 PM
At this point, he is pretty much assured the #3 (as it should be)...

If he is our #3 the Reds are in for yet another long season. Belisle should be a long man/spot starter at best.

BEETTLEBUG
01-31-2008, 06:01 PM
I AGREE.

Stephenk29
01-31-2008, 06:08 PM
and we will have a long season.

who else you gonna throw out there though? 2 rookies, 3 rookies?

Degenerate39
01-31-2008, 06:18 PM
Not a bad deal for a young up and comer. I can't wait till he proves everyone wrong this season. I can see him having an improved season. The only thing that's going to hurt him is him pitching in the third spot.

BLEEDS
01-31-2008, 06:56 PM
If he is our #3 the Reds are in for yet another long season. Belisle should be a long man/spot starter at best.

Come on, don't you know moving Belisle's 5.26 ERA from #4 to #3 in the rotation, and leaving 4 "rookies" to battle for the #4 and #5 is the "BESTEST" off-season moves in the History of the Reds?!?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
01-31-2008, 07:01 PM
Bleeds is full of misquotes, and lets not forget insults, advice, and capital letters.

kbrake
01-31-2008, 07:26 PM
Belisle will have an ERA better than league average in 2008. I have no idea how some of you can be so down on the guy. He misses bats and has good command. For 1.25 Belisle is a steal and will be one of the few Reds that will be worth far more than his salary.

jmac
01-31-2008, 08:19 PM
At this point, he is pretty much assured the #3 (as it should be)...

I just dont understand how a guy with a 5.32 ERA can be assured a #3 spot in the rotation.
As a Reds fan I hope Belisle has a terrific season but I'm just not as sold on him as everyone else seems to be.
In fact it wouldnt surprise me a bit for Bailey to have a better season than Matt.
I feel like Harang and BA line up nicely against other teams #1 and #2 but when Belisle starts facing the #3 then we are at a distinct disadvantage. Hopefully he has a great season though.

*BaseClogger*
01-31-2008, 08:23 PM
I don't feel like going through these motions again, so I'll just copy and paste a similar post as to how I feel, from the ORG:


People continue to overestimate the control that Belisle had on those hit rates.

His 6.33 K/9 may not be great, but it is acceptable, meaning that he shouldn't continue to be a hitting tee out there. The main reason for the problems was his .331 BAPIP, mainly a result of poor fielding, and just flat out bad luck.

Now many posters here have continued to argue that the bad BAPIP is not due to luck, but instead it's a Belisle problem. A problem resulting from a straight fastball and predictable offerings.

However, there is a problem here. Firstly, history has suggested that pitchers have at most, a very minor ability to control BAPIP. Even the worst guys here wont be continuously sporting more than a .310 BAPIP each season. So even if it's something Belisle is bad at, it's still destined to decrease by a wide margin.

Secondly, Belisle's line drive rates are not in proportion with what should result in a high BAPIP. His LD% last year was 22%, career 21.6%. By comparison, Pedro Martinez' career LD% is around 20%, Randy Johnson 19%, Maddux 21%, Glavine 21.5%, Clemens 20%, Oswalt 21%. (Note these were just the first names I could think of to illustrate the point, no cherrypicking here).

So the point here is that Belisle's LD% is right in the ballpark with some of the greatest pitchers of our era. So with that being true, then how come so many of the batted balls are turning into hits. They aren't hit any harder than for a normal pitcher. It's not a question of opposing hitters teeing off on him. It's a matter of normally hit balls finding holes. Why is that Belisle's fault?

With normal fielding/luck that the average pitcher gets, Belisle's hit rates would decrease dramatically through no skill of his own. It's something that he has very little control over. That type of thing should not be continually used against him.

Belisle's control should continue making him an enticing back of the rotation option while he's on the cheap. he wont overpower you, but he wont make his own problems. His peripherals suggest that Belisle is a slightly above average national league starter making him an asset out of the number 4 slot in the rotation. At his current price tag, I see no reason to point fingers at him. Blame the guys that make his hit rate look worse than they rightfully should be.

mlbfan30
01-31-2008, 09:32 PM
From RotoWorld

Reds agreed to terms with RHP Matt Belisle on a one-year, $1.25 million contract.
Belisle asked for $1.65 million and was offered $1 million in arbitration. He might have been knocked out of Cincinnati's rotation by the Jeremy Affeldt signing, though he'll still get a chance to compete with Homer Bailey and others, barring additional moves. He'd be more useful in middle relief.

I just don't see how ANYONE could realistically say that Affeldt is a better option than Belisle as a SP.

Also You people need to realize Belisle is going into his 1st arbitration year. That means his salery will be lower than a FA. 1st year arb is about 40% of FA. So 1M is more like 3M in FA.

Bip Roberts
01-31-2008, 09:37 PM
Rotoworld says a lot of dumb things. They bashed the reds all last year for sending Coffey down to the minors. saying how we are a terrible franchise and sending him down proves that we have no hope to ever get better.

some times they just get their panties in a bunch over there or something.

Handofdeath
02-01-2008, 12:16 AM
I don't feel like going through these motions again, so I'll just copy and paste a similar post as to how I feel, from the ORG:

I'll simplify it even more. If you look at the teams who finished at .500 and above in the NL, many of their #3's had seasons very similar or even worse than Belisle.

AmarilloRed
02-01-2008, 12:56 AM
It seems like Krivsky has decided that the back end of the rotation will be determined by trying out in spring training. Belisle, Affeldt, Velasquez, Bailey, and Cueto will all get a number of starts, and whoever does best will be put in the starting rotation. It does not matter what we think, but Krivsky has suggested that Belisle has a starting spot assured. The fact that he threw 177 innings last year leads us to think that might be a wise decision on Krivsy's part. I certainly would much rather have a pitcher with 1 year of major league experience in the rotation, and let the kids compete for the remaining rotation spots.

foltza
02-01-2008, 12:50 PM
the reds record in games he started last year was 12-18. his era was 5.32. 5.32!!! that is not too good.

compare with: in 2006, eric milton's last full season with the reds, the team went 12-14 in games he started and his era was 5.19.

i can not understand at all why people like this guy so much.

BLEEDS
02-01-2008, 01:11 PM
the reds record in games he started last year was 12-18. his era was 5.32. 5.32!!! that is not too good.

compare with: in 2006, eric milton's last full season with the reds, the team went 12-14 in games he started and his era was 5.19.

i can not understand at all why people like this guy so much.

Because he had "Bad Luck" and his Defense-Independent ERA is much better. Unfortunately his Defense is NOT Independent, it will be the SAME AS LAST YEAR.

But hey, he should be automatically assumed to improve in 2008, and Homer Bailey should be automatically assumed to improve to better than Belisle was last year, and monkeys will be assumed to be flying out of my butt.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Handofdeath
02-01-2008, 02:11 PM
the reds record in games he started last year was 12-18. his era was 5.32. 5.32!!! that is not too good.

compare with: in 2006, eric milton's last full season with the reds, the team went 12-14 in games he started and his era was 5.19.

i can not understand at all why people like this guy so much.

In Milton's last season with the Reds how many years had he been a starter? Last year was Belisle's 1st in the Majors.

redsfanmia
02-01-2008, 04:06 PM
Seriously how could anyone who watched Belisle pitch last season want him as a #3 starter? I am not saying he is terrible or worthless I just think he would be better suited as a longman/spot starter.

kbrake
02-01-2008, 06:53 PM
He has had exactly ONE season of starting in the majors. He has good stuff and if you watched the games last year since thats all you guys ever want to talk about I think you would be able to tell that he is going to improve.

redsupport
02-01-2008, 10:02 PM
not with griffey in the field

BUTLER REDSFAN
02-02-2008, 12:08 AM
I just never understand the arbitration process or these players. He has a losing record and a very high ERA but he asks for bascially a 1.3 mill raise!?!?!?!?!?How do these players who have crappy years get the stones to even ask for more $$ ?? And then we bascially give it to him anyway???Yeah boss I know that I didn't hit my goals 7 months out of 12 last year but can i get an extra mill??? Where do I sign up??

*BaseClogger*
02-02-2008, 12:21 AM
I just never understand the arbitration process or these players. He has a losing record and a very high ERA but he asks for bascially a 1.3 mill raise!?!?!?!?!?How do these players who have crappy years get the stones to even ask for more $$ ?? And then we bascially give it to him anyway???Yeah boss I know that I didn't hit my goals 7 months out of 12 last year but can i get an extra mill??? Where do I sign up??

market value: he would have gotten much more as a free agent.

mlbfan30
02-02-2008, 12:24 AM
I just never understand the arbitration process or these players. He has a losing record and a very high ERA but he asks for bascially a 1.3 mill raise!?!?!?!?!?How do these players who have crappy years get the stones to even ask for more $$ ?? And then we bascially give it to him anyway???Yeah boss I know that I didn't hit my goals 7 months out of 12 last year but can i get an extra mill??? Where do I sign up??

Wow you are ignorant. Maybe spend 30 min and a little research. That's all I have to say.

mlbfan30
02-02-2008, 12:37 AM
the reds record in games he started last year was 12-18. his era was 5.32. 5.32!!! that is not too good.

compare with: in 2006, eric milton's last full season with the reds, the team went 12-14 in games he started and his era was 5.19.

i can not understand at all why people like this guy so much.

You can't use ERA and Team W-L record as a measurement for true effectiveness. Team W-L is entirely dependent on Run support, and also bullpen. The SP pitched on average 2/3 of the game, and has little control over what the offense produces.

ERA is also flawed in that it's a measurement that is no adjusted for anything. Stats should be adjusted for ballpark, team's faced quality, league, year, etc. ERA is also influenced with bad/good bullpen support. In general ERA is a quick way to rank pitchers, but just as an initial guide. It doesn't show the real quality of pitchers, such as SO/BB, GB/FB, IP/Start, etc.

Now for Milton. Your arguing the difference between Milton and Belisle is so small, why are people backing Belisle but ridiculed Milton. The difference is simple money. Milton was brought in on a big contract (at the time) and was being paid as a #2 type starter. He performed more like a #4, #5 in 2006. You forget to mention that his ERA was 6.47! in 2005 while pitching in 186 innings. In 2007 he pitched only 31 innings. Milton had 1 season equal to Belisle, and was replacement level in the others, yet was paid 27 M. Belisle will now be paid 1.5M. That's the difference.

BUTLER REDSFAN
02-02-2008, 12:39 AM
Wow you are ignorant. Maybe spend 30 min and a little research. That's all I have to say.

Lose the attitude...I wasn't coming from the statfreak side of this..I am simply saying these players who have bad years have the gall to turn around and ask for huge raises when what they have just done the year before does nothing to warrant it.

mlbfan30
02-02-2008, 01:45 AM
So you are really saying a near league average pitcher doesn't warrant 1.25 Mil? Are you one of those people who think anything above 5 Mil for any player is too much? Are you one of those people who think AROD isn't worth even 15M?, and Santana should be 10M?

Seriously, the minimum is almost 500k. After 3 years of making minimum players go through arbitration, which are "raises" for the player. This arbitration isn't as much as free agency, but it incrementally gets larger each year. Players have a cap as to how much they can ask for. Was it such a crime to ask 1.5M when similar players on the open market make around 8-9M. I'm sure if you started a new job, and you were being paid minimum wage for 3 years, you would ask for a raise.

kbrake
02-02-2008, 09:24 AM
Lose the attitude...I wasn't coming from the statfreak side of this..I am simply saying these players who have bad years have the gall to turn around and ask for huge raises when what they have just done the year before does nothing to warrant it.

You cant really get upset with other people when you go on a rant like the one you did. It doesnt take someone from the "statfreak" side of things to know that Belisle is worth the raise. Just happy that the people who run this team pay at least some attention to the "statfreak" side of things.

foltza
02-02-2008, 03:04 PM
why wouldn't you use era as a measure of effectiveness? how many runs the other team scores while he is pitching is the ONLY measurement i care about. i realize there are other factors in play, but over time it's all about the runs scored by the good guys vs. the runs scored by the bad guys. simply put, when belisle is pitching the bad guys are scoring too many and the team is losing more than they win.

that's a fair point about the money, and others have stated that he will, for lack of a better phrase, figure out how to be a better starting pitcher with more experience. he's still pretty young and the other stats you mention may translate into an improved bottom line.

mlbfan30
02-02-2008, 03:29 PM
why wouldn't you use era as a measure of effectiveness? how many runs the other team scores while he is pitching is the ONLY measurement i care about. i realize there are other factors in play, but over time it's all about the runs scored by the good guys vs. the runs scored by the bad guys. simply put, when belisle is pitching the bad guys are scoring too many and the team is losing more than they win.

that's a fair point about the money, and others have stated that he will, for lack of a better phrase, figure out how to be a better starting pitcher with more experience. he's still pretty young and the other stats you mention may translate into an improved bottom line.

When using ERA, it's just a simple equation that doesn't completely measure effectiveness. It's not adjusted for anything.

Are you saying a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA in Petco is better than a 3.75 ERA in Colorado?
Are you saying a 3.50 ERA in the NL is better than a 3.75 ERA in the AL?
Are you saying a 3.50 ERA w/ 240 IP in 35 starts is better than a 3.75 ERA w/185 IP in 35 starts?
Are you saying a 3.50 ERA in 1990 is better than a 3.75 ERA in 2000?
Are you saying a 3.50 ERA with 35 extra unearned runs is better than a 3.75 with 10 extra unearned runs?

Do you get what I'm saying? ERA is just a rough quick way to get a general idea of how to rank pitchers. It's something used because everyone knows it and it's been around for so long. But the stat is enormously flawed when determining the quality of the pitcher.

You say the only thing that matters is how many runs the opponent scores, but the environment (factors that affects ERA) really determines what the ERA is.

XU Lou
02-02-2008, 03:33 PM
IMHO I think the venom for Milton existed partially because of his salary but mainly because of expectations. These lofty expectations were as a result of his being a big free agent signing and his several years of experience.

Belisle is getting a break because his expectations are considerably lower even though the perfomance is fairly equivalent to Milton. Hope springs eternal for young players but not for veterans.

True, he should improve, the question is to what level. Average 3rd, 4th or 5th SP? Personally, I believe he has a better than fair shot of ending up an average 4th SP, if he isn't there by July of this year than I doubt he will ever do so.

gedred69
02-03-2008, 03:12 PM
IMHO I think the venom for Milton existed partially because of his salary but mainly because of expectations. These lofty expectations were as a result of his being a big free agent signing and his several years of experience.

Belisle is getting a break because his expectations are considerably lower even though the perfomance is fairly equivalent to Milton. Hope springs eternal for young players but not for veterans.

True, he should improve, the question is to what level. Average 3rd, 4th or 5th SP? Personally, I believe he has a better than fair shot of ending up an average 4th SP, if he isn't there by July of this year than I doubt he will ever do so.

Good view on the Milton thing. Thing is Belisle has good enough stuff so that it isn't a stretch to think he can be significantly better this year. This is an important season for him to show all that he can be.

XU Lou
02-03-2008, 03:33 PM
Good view on the Milton thing. Thing is Belisle has good enough stuff so that it isn't a stretch to think he can be significantly better this year. This is an important season for him to show all that he can be.

Agreed, this is his season or he will be a reliever.