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FreelFanatic
02-05-2008, 05:26 PM
Interesting, but not too far from the consensus, I don't think.


Projecting the 25-man

I'm sitting in the office today working on our spring training preview package. One of the things I do annually is project the 25-man roster. I went 20-for-25 in '06. The Arroyo-Pena trade cost me two spots.

Last year, I went 22-for-25. I would have gone 24-for-25 if Eric Milton and Bill Bray hadn't been on the DL. Anyway, enough with my excuses, here's this year's projection:

Starting eight
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
CF Jay Bruce
LF Adam Dunn
C David Ross


Bench:
OF/INF Jeff Keppinger
OF/INF Ryan Freel
OF Norris Hopper
C Javier Valentin
1B Scott Hatteberg

Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Jeremy Affeldt
Homer Bailey


Bullpen:
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Mike Stanton
Todd Coffey
Edinson Volquez

The bold prediction is Bruce making it. I'm just guessing on Volquez-Bailey. I think if Bailey gets the nod as far as the rotation, Volquez will make it was a reliever because his arm is that good. I don't think Coffey's spot is secure. And I'm also guessing that Juan Castro starts the year on the DL.

What do you think?

Lockdwn11
02-05-2008, 05:31 PM
Switch Jeremy Affeldt and Edinson Volquez and I would take it.

muethibp
02-05-2008, 05:32 PM
I don't mind going to war with that team, except for the small detail that the rotation isn't nearly good enough to win.

Bip Roberts
02-05-2008, 05:41 PM
I wish my job was as simple as his.

Lockdwn11
02-05-2008, 05:45 PM
The thing is we don't know how good this rotation is if Matt Belisle improves (witch he will) ,Homer & Volquez start to realize thier potental (witch they should) and Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo do what they do this rotation could be very good.One of if not the best rotation in the central.

kbrake
02-05-2008, 05:58 PM
The Cubs rotation is far ahead of ours make no mistake. As for Fay's predictions I would say they look pretty accurate. Not sure about the back end of the rotation going exactly the way he has it (I'm thinking switch Volquez and Affeldt) but its close enough.

Lockdwn11
02-05-2008, 06:01 PM
I agree the Cubs rotation is better then ours today but lets wait until July and see

Nasty_Boy
02-05-2008, 06:09 PM
This may be a pipe dream but I hope that Adam Rosales has a spring to make things tough on the Reds. I would love to see him make the team and Freel get moved for whatever they can get. I'm also keeping my fingers crossed (like the rest of Reds nation) that the young guys, especially pitchers are all they're cracked up to be. I haven't been this excited for a season in a very long time and most of the reason is the amount of young talent... let's just hope they all realize their potential.

scuba17
02-05-2008, 06:34 PM
I agree the Cubs rotation is better then ours today but lets wait until July and see

If the Cubs rotation is better now it is likely to stay that way in July. Does that not mean the Reds couldn't have a decent one? Of course not.

If you assume the Reds rotation will improve throughout the year you have to assume the same for the Cubs.

If you could combine the two rotations the Cubs would have three of the top four. I'd obviously take Harang, but after that I would have to go with Zambrano, Hill, and Lilly before anyone else form the reds projected rotation.

Lockdwn11
02-05-2008, 07:03 PM
If the Cubs rotation is better now it is likely to stay that way in July. Does that not mean the Reds couldn't have a decent one? Of course not.

If you assume the Reds rotation will improve throughout the year you have to assume the same for the Cubs.

If you could combine the two rotations the Cubs would have three of the top four. I'd obviously take Harang, but after that I would have to go with Zambrano, Hill, and Lilly before anyone else form the reds projected rotation.

I disagree, I think the cubs rotation is a finished product as far as improvement goes save one Rich Hill. What I mean by that is Zambrano and Lilly are as good as they are going to get infact I think Lilly will take a step back this year and I would take Arroyo over him .

The Red rotation is younger with alot more upside and room to improve this year .I may be wrong but that is just my opinion.I'm not saying the Reds will have a better rotation come July but I am saying they COULD be just as good.

jmac
02-05-2008, 08:46 PM
The problem with this team in my eyes is the bench.
If a lefty starts and say Baker starts Hopper/Freel and Kepp at first as platoon which Krivs mentioned, there is no RH pop coming off bench.
Even if the above mentioned arent in the starting lineup, they still dont qualify as pop.
Otherwise, I like alot of the projections.

scuba17
02-05-2008, 08:48 PM
I disagree, I think the cubs rotation is a finished product as far as improvement goes save one Rich Hill. What I mean by that is Zambrano and Lilly are as good as they are going to get infact I think Lilly will take a step back this year and I would take Arroyo over him .

The Red rotation is younger with alot more upside and room to improve this year .I may be wrong but that is just my opinion.I'm not saying the Reds will have a better rotation come July but I am saying they COULD be just as good.

The Reds and Cubs rotation is about the same average age overall. That is considering Affeldt and Bailey who aren't sure fire candidates at this point.

Harang 29
Arroyo 30
Belisle 27
Affeldt 28
Bailey 22

Zambrano 26
Lilly 32
Hill 27
Marshall 25
Marquis 29

Again, if the Reds can improve over the course of the year so can the Cubs. There is plenty of young talent in both rotations. Also, Wrigley over the recent years has played much more like a pitcher's park, so that is another adavantage in Chicago's favor.

The Cubs were #2 in the NL in team pitching last year, the Reds were #15. That is a lot of ground to make up in just one year.

Bip Roberts
02-05-2008, 09:05 PM
The Reds and Cubs rotation is about the same average age overall. That is considering Affeldt and Bailey who aren't sure fire candidates at this point.

Harang 29
Arroyo 30
Belisle 27
Affeldt 28
Bailey 22

Zambrano 26
Lilly 32
Hill 27
Marshall 25
Marquis 29

Again, if the Reds can improve over the course of the year so can the Cubs. There is plenty of young talent in both rotations. Also, Wrigley over the recent years has played much more like a pitcher's park, so that is another adavantage in Chicago's favor.

The Cubs were #2 in the NL in team pitching last year, the Reds were #15. That is a lot of ground to make up in just one year.

Where is Jon Leiber

Chris Sabowned
02-05-2008, 09:12 PM
John Leiber should be in that rotation somewhere.


The thing that bothers me about our roster is that we have very little pop off of our bench. We have some great contact hitters but Javie is our only power hitter, and he's not even a big homerun threat. I think we need to get one more in here somehow.

Bip Roberts
02-05-2008, 09:16 PM
John Leiber should be in that rotation somewhere.


The thing that bothers me about our roster is that we have very little pop off of our bench. We have some great contact hitters but Javie is our only power hitter, and he's not even a big homerun threat. I think we need to get one more in here somehow.

Id agree if our line up wasnt already full of the power hitters. Sure one off the bench would be nice but I dont know how often you really need that homer when a double or a single wouldnt work.

scuba17
02-05-2008, 09:38 PM
Yep...my bad on Lieber.

Probably easier to compare this closer to the start of the season.

Betterread
02-05-2008, 11:19 PM
I agree with 22 of 25. And Volquez will be in the rotation and Affeldt will be in the 'pen.
I think that Bruce will start in AAA - and he's not ready to play CF in the majors, its not even a discussion. We need a decent CFer - maybe Dickerson? Fiorentina?
Coffey and Stanton better not be in the bullpen - We don't need that many pitchers early in the year - why not reward a good spring training performer (whoever it is - let's say MacBeth) and then bring a defensive IFer instead of a 2nd Bullpen pitcher. (Castro?)

Lockdwn11
02-05-2008, 11:38 PM
The Reds and Cubs rotation is about the same average age overall. That is considering Affeldt and Bailey who aren't sure fire candidates at this point.

Harang 29
Arroyo 30
Belisle 27
Affeldt 28
Bailey 22

Zambrano 26
Lilly 32
Hill 27
Marshall 25
Marquis 29

Again, if the Reds can improve over the course of the year so can the Cubs. There is plenty of young talent in both rotations. Also, Wrigley over the recent years has played much more like a pitcher's park, so that is another adavantage in Chicago's favor.

The Cubs were #2 in the NL in team pitching last year, the Reds were #15. That is a lot of ground to make up in just one year.


Actualy there was more runs scored a game at Wrigley last year than in the GABP. As I stated in my first post I think it will be Edinson Volquez in the rotation and not Affeldt and as it was pointed out you left 36 year old Jon Lieber out of your rotation , so even if Affeldt is in there the REDs rotation is younger with more upside

But you are right it would be better to wait untill the rotations are set to debate this.

Blue
02-05-2008, 11:39 PM
There's no way that Edinson Volquez won't start the season in the rotation.

fewfirstchoice
02-05-2008, 11:41 PM
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B EE
SS Gonzo
C Ross
RF JR
CF Crisp
LF Dunn

IN/OF Keppinger
C Valentin
OF Hopper
OF Dickerson
IN Castro

1) Harang
2) Arroyo
3) Belisle
4) Bailey
5) Volquez

CL Cordero
Weathers
Burton
McBeth
Bray
Affeltd
Salmon

Thats what I would like to see on opening day.I think Bruce start out in AAA no matter what.Thats why I would like to see a Crisp trade happen.

kbrake
02-06-2008, 10:52 AM
Juan Castro should never have a spot on any Major League roster.

CySeymour
02-06-2008, 10:59 AM
Juan Castro should never have a spot on any Major League roster.

Ditto

Red Rover
02-06-2008, 12:17 PM
Will Bray be ready for opening day? I say Jon Coutlangus takes his spot. What if Bruce and/or Cuteo make the team, who will be taken off the 40 man roster?

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 12:29 PM
Will Bray be ready for opening day? I say Jon Coutlangus takes his spot. What if Bruce and/or Cuteo make the team, who will be taken off the 40 man roster?

Unless he gets hurt again I dont see why Bray wont be ready.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-06-2008, 12:40 PM
Being a rule 5 selection, i would have to guess that Sergio Valenzuela will get every chance to make the opening day roster. Maybe he gets "hurt" prior to that but I can't see WK just letting him go back to the Braves.

NorrisHopper30
02-06-2008, 02:08 PM
If the rule 5 guy doesn't make the opening day roster does he have to be cut?

kbrake
02-06-2008, 02:24 PM
I believe he goes back to Atlanta.

RSNtransplant
02-06-2008, 02:29 PM
If the rule 5 guy doesn't make the opening day roster does he have to be cut?

Rule 5 guys have to be kept on the roster all year(includes major league DL) o/w player is returned to originating team, but you get half your rule 5 money back in return. 50k/25k.

BLEEDS
02-06-2008, 02:41 PM
The thing is we don't know how good this rotation is if Matt Belisle improves (witch he will) ,Homer & Volquez start to realize thier potental (witch they should) and Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo do what they do this rotation could be very good.One of if not the best rotation in the central.

We are going to need some Witches in order for ALL of those Wishes to come true...


PEACE

-BLEEDS

AmarilloRed
02-06-2008, 02:44 PM
I think McBeth and Salmon make the roster over Coffey and Bray. Sadly, Stanton will stay on the roster because we will be unable to trade him.

BLEEDS
02-06-2008, 02:46 PM
I don't mind going to war with that team, except for the small detail that the rotation isn't nearly good enough to win.

Yep, other than that, we're Golden.

Volquez will be in the rotation. Mark it down. We didn't trade our power starting CF-er to put a guy in the pen. Kriv won't live the cries from the fans on that one.

Better him than Affeldt. Affeldt has to beat out Homer. That's the race to watch.

At this point, barring another move or two, there is NO REASON to start our season with Bruce OR Homer in the lineup. We aren't poised to compete this year, as is, so we might as well avoid starting these guys' Arbitration clocks.

Start them in AAA, and make them "Beat Down the Door" to the Bigs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
02-06-2008, 02:50 PM
I think McBeth and Salmon make the roster over Coffey and Bray. Sadly, Stanton will stay on the roster because we will be unable to trade him.

I hope the FO understands the idea of "sunken cost" when it comes to Stanton. They should play him enough in ST to let guys destroy him, hoping he'll take the initiative to retire.

It would only cost us $400k more to start a rookie over Stanton.

IFF Stanton gets enough appearances in 2008 to guarantee his 2009 option, I may have to boycott watching baseball for the season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 02:58 PM
Yea there is no reason why Stanton should get that option.

Red Rover
02-06-2008, 03:06 PM
Unless he gets hurt again I dont see why Bray wont be ready.

Has he began throwing since his appendectomy? What's the latest word?

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 03:07 PM
Has he began throwing since his appendectomy? What's the latest word?

I dont know what the latest word is but they appendectomies that big of a deal.

kbrake
02-06-2008, 03:13 PM
Yep, other than that, we're Golden.

Volquez will be in the rotation. Mark it down. We didn't trade our power starting CF-er to put a guy in the pen. Kriv won't live the cries from the fans on that one.

Better him than Affeldt. Affeldt has to beat out Homer. That's the race to watch.

At this point, barring another move or two, there is NO REASON to start our season with Bruce OR Homer in the lineup. We aren't poised to compete this year, as is, so we might as well avoid starting these guys' Arbitration clocks.

Start them in AAA, and make them "Beat Down the Door" to the Bigs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


This team has a chance to compete this year. I understand your point but this division is terrible. Why not let Bruce, Bailey, and company learn at the major league level? Let the future get some experience, instead of giving more playing time to guys who will lead us no where.

As for Stanton I don't think he will be as bad as next year and if he is he will be released. Everyone already hates Stanton and if he sucks that bad again the fans will be going crazy.

Nasty_Boy
02-06-2008, 03:15 PM
Has he began throwing since his appendectomy? What's the latest word?

I remember reading that Bray would be able to workout and throw 1-2 weeks after his surgery. I don't think appendectomy's are a big deal anymore. I had a buddy play in a HS basketball game about 10 days after his operation.

BLEEDS
02-06-2008, 03:28 PM
This team has a chance to compete this year. I understand your point but this division is terrible. Why not let Bruce, Bailey, and company learn at the major league level? Let the future get some experience, instead of giving more playing time to guys who will lead us no where.

Because outside of Bruce, the "company" hasn't proven itself dominant in AAA yet.

Why waste $$ and Arb clock on "learning" when they can continue to polish their skills for cheap - since everyone says 2009 is our year anyway (I disagree, but that's another discussion).

The team HAD a chance to compete in 2008, if it would have Solidified itself with better SP. They moved Belisle up a spot in the rotation and put TWO question marks in there. That is not an upgrade, just HOPES and PRAYERS. We are hoping for a Detroit Tigers alignment of all the stars and heavens to align right, career years and breakthrough rookies. Can it happen? Yes. But the odds have it at it being more likely that I will get ran over by an elephant on my way home from work tonight.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 03:31 PM
Where was the better SP coming from?

AmarilloRed
02-07-2008, 02:01 AM
I suggested we will be stuck with Stanton unless he is traded for this reason: If Stanton is traded, his contract and the option year become the responsibility of the team that traded for him.However, if the Reds cut him, and another team signs him, we will be responsible for paying for the option year if he gets over the 80+ appearances. I suppose it all boils down to whether the Reds want to keep him on the roster this year, and cut him in the off-season after limiting his appearances, or we can cut him now and pay for both this year and his option year. I don't think either is a good alternative, so we might have to just accept his presence on the roster this year.

Degenerate39
02-07-2008, 02:00 PM
I'd rather see Volquez in the rotation rather than the bullpen. Switch him and Affeldt around for me. But I agree with everything else John Fay said.