Redszone Community Prospect Vote #33

[dougdirt]

Vote for the player who you think is the Reds #33 prospect (the best prospect who is not yet on the list). We will go with this as far as you guys want to take it.

I will post a new list every 2 days with 10-15 options to vote on.

If you feel like making an argument on why a guy should be voted here, feel free to vote and state why you voted for that player.

If there is someone that is not currently listed as an option to vote on, vote for 'other' then just state who you want to vote for in the thread.

If there is anyone you would like to see as an option on the next poll, just say so and if they garner enough support, they will be placed on the next poll. Guys with the lowest amount of votes will usually be removed for the next few guys who were talked about in the previous thread.


Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier
Prospect 6 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect 7 - Matt Maloney
Prospect 8 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect 9 - Travis Wood
Prospect 10 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect 11 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect 12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect 13 - Sean Watson
Prospect 14 - Carlos Fisher
Prospect 15 - Juan Francisco
Prospect 16 - Neftali Soto
Prospect 17 - Brandon Waring
Prospect 18 - Adam Rosales
Prospect 19 - Tyler Pelland
Prospect 20 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect 21 - Pedro Viola
Prospect 22 - Chris Valaika
Prospect 23 - Sam Lecure
Prospect 24 - Marcus McBeth
Prospect 25 - Justin Turner
Prospect 26 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect 27 - Scott Carroll
Prospect 28 - Richie Gardner
Prospect 29 - Justin Reed
Prospect 30 - Paul Janish
Prospect 31 - Alexander Smit
Prospect 32 - Danny Herrera

[camisadelgolf]

I'm going with the Zack Attack. Coming out of the draft, his ceiling was questioned a bit, but his floor has always been as a MLB backup (which is widely considered to be the ceiling of some of the previously-elected prospects, such as Paul Janish).

Doug, speaking of Janish, you have him as an option in the poll, but he was already selected as the #30 prospect.

[M2]

Chiu was 19 last season. He was the ace of the Reds GCL rotation. He allowed a 1.08 WHIP, had a 1.35 G/F ratio, posted a 8.03 K/9 and had a 5.88 K/BB.

[lollipopcurve]

Tatum

Plays catcher.

[RedsManRick]

I went with Chiu. Very unheralded, but is young and could be top 15 in the system next season if he repeats his performance in A ball.

52.2 IP, 47 K, 8 BB, 3 HR. That's really good.

[dougdirt]

Doug, speaking of Janish, you have him as an option in the poll, but he was already selected as the #30 prospect.

I am slacking big time on this the past few days.

[RedsManRick]

I am slacking big time on this the past few days.

So it's not a good time to correct the spelling of Chui to Chiu? :p:

[BoydsOfSummer]

Well, we know Cozart and Tatum can play defense in the Show at least.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ramon Ramirez again.

[Superdude]

Can anyone give a scouting report on Ramirez?

[Redman15]

I went with Chris Heisey. I'm picking him as my 2008 sleeper. He could have a better year than most of the OF prospects ranked ahead of him. I love his make up. He's tough and plays the game a lot like Freel.

[dougdirt]

So it's not a good time to correct the spelling of Chui to Chiu? :p:

Exactly! :thumbup:

[Red Daddy]

Valiquette is ready for a BIG year. He's getting it together. The Razor Ramirez scouting report??? His underhand speedball clocks in at 53 mph. His curve is that high underhand pitch you see in church leagues!!!! Vote for Valiquette.

[AdamDunn]

I went with Chiu. Very unheralded, but is young and could be top 15 in the system next season if he repeats his performance in A ball.

52.2 IP, 47 K, 8 BB, 3 HR. That's really good.

But then again, he throws a fastball in the low to mid 80's. Not quite liking that.

[M2]

One sleeper who's gotten no mention yet is Travis Webb.

[texasdave]

One sleeper who's gotten no mention yet is Travis Webb.

At # 33 aren't they all pretty much sleepers? I will offer up another one. Charles Snowden. He was the 499th player taken in the 07 Amateur Draft (picked in the 16th round by Cincinnati). They list him at 6'1" and just 150 lbs at baseball-reference.com, so he has no choice but to fill out a little. (Charles Snowden - the anti-Coffey) He pitched in the GCL as an 18 year old. He is a lefty who showed good control - 5 BB in 25.2 IP. He struck people out - 30 K in those same 25.2 IP. His WHIP was 1.13, and he kept the ball from leaving the yard - only 1 HR given up all year. I really don't know anything about him other than his stats. Scouting report, anyone?

[dougdirt]

I haven't seen anything on Snowden other than his stats, but they are intriguing enough that he certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

Someone I really like at this point, but isn't getting much backing is Derrik Lutz.
Reliever, big groundball guy (60% of the balls in play last year were GBs) and still gets a decent number of strikeouts while doing so.

[texasdave]

But then again, he throws a fastball in the low to mid 80's. Not quite liking that.

Achtung BabyJul 15 2007, 12:04 PM
The above one was from June, these next few are from March and may be old news:

The Cincinnati Reds were able to break into the Taiwanese market by signing 19 year LHP Tzu-Kai Chiu. Chiu received an estimated $200,000 signing bonus + additional money for his education. Chiu stands around 6'0" tall and weighs close to 200 pounds. Chiu has been on the MLB radar for quite some time now - refer to this Jan. '06 post to read more about Chiu. Chiu is currently in his first year of college but will be heading to the US shortly for a physical. Chiu throws comfortably in the 85 to 87 mph range with touches of 89 mph on his fastball - Chiu's best pitch is his curveball. Congrats to Chiu!

LHP Chiu-86-89mph but very good delivery, polished control and command, plus curveball, above average splitter, also throws slider and changeup.

Take these press clippings for what they are worth. I have never seen Chiu pitch live. He seems to sit in the mid to upper 80's. He was just 19 this year so maybe he can add a click or two to his fastballin the years to come. Add that to his excellent control and wide variety of pitches and it would not be overly surprising to find him pitching in the majors somewhere down the line.

[RedsManRick]

LHP Chiu-86-89mph but very good delivery, polished control and command, plus curveball, above average splitter, also throws slider and changeup.

Take these press clippings for what they are worth. I have never seen Chiu pitch live. He seems to sit in the mid to upper 80's. He was just 19 this year so maybe he can add a click or two to his fastballin the years to come. Add that to his excellent control and wide variety of pitches and it would not be overly surprising to find him pitching in the majors somewhere down the line.

Good and bad. Nice to see a guy who sounds so polished, so young. However, polish and mediocre stuff can take the same statistical form as dominating in the low minors. Put it in the upper minors and it often doesn't translate so well. Perhaps a right handed Matt Maloney?

[OnBaseMachine]

Good and bad. Nice to see a guy who sounds so polished, so young. However, polish and mediocre stuff can take the same statistical form as dominating in the low minors. Put it in the upper minors and it often doesn't translate so well. Perhaps a right handed Matt Maloney?

Chiu is left handed.

[HokieRed]

Want a right-handed power pitcher who's only 18--Evan Hildenbrandt. I'm amazed at how much people discount him because he didn't sign and pitch 15 innings or so in the GCL. We've got 20 votes for a combination of Tatum, Valiquette, and Ramirez and 6 for Hildenbrandt. Doesn't show a lot of faith in our current GM.

[texasdave]

Good and bad. Nice to see a guy who sounds so polished, so young. However, polish and mediocre stuff can take the same statistical form as dominating in the low minors. Put it in the upper minors and it often doesn't translate so well. Perhaps a right handed Matt Maloney?

I wonder if research would show there is a correlation between at what speed your fastball has to sit, combined with how many other major league quality pitches you have, for a pitcher to be successful? Something along the lines of.....




# of other ML quality pitches fastball must sit at
0 95
1 93
2 91
3 89



....and so on.

[chicoruiz]

I went Jukich, but let's face it, we're throwing darts by now.

[camisadelgolf]

Here's my top-ten of who's left:
1. Zach Cozart
reportedly plays excellent defense and the only question is whether he can hit enough to be a starter in MLB
2. Evan Hildebrandt
has yet to throw a professional inning, but the Reds were willing to pay above-slot money to sign him
3. Ruben Medina
his stats make it look like the hitters were swinging at Billiards balls instead of baseballs
4. Tzu-Kai Chiu
has shown excellent polish but lacks velocity
5. Jordan Smith
has the potential to be a solid back-of-the-rotation innings-eater
6. Sean Henry
if not for his small frame, he would be a highly-touted prospect
7. Jamie Gianchou
the Reds paid him the highest signing bonus for an Australian ever; it's yet to be seen if he will be the best Australian baseball player ever, though
8. Chris Heisey
a somewhat-late draft pick who has surprised people with his skills; I think Danny Dorn stole all his thunder, but he's almost just as worthy of the praise
9. Ryan Hanigan
he's a singles-hitter, but he's a catcher who walks more than he strikes out, which can be very valuable
10. Ramon Ramirez
he blossomed late in his minor league career, and the Reds thought enough of him to put him on the 40-man roster; his ceiling is probably as a middle reliever, but his floor is probably getting a cup of coffee in the Majors

[M2]

Forget about whether Cozart can hit in the majors. It's an open question if he can even hit in the low minors. He's at least two standard deviations behind even matching Paul Janish's paltry offense.

[kheidg-]

Forget about whether Cozart can hit in the majors. It's an open question if he can even hit in the low minors. He's at least two standard deviations behind even matching Paul Janish's paltry offense.

My exact thoughts. How is this guy getting so many votes even at #33 hitting as bad as he did in low A. Jose Castro should be well ahead of Cozart, no matter how good of a fielder Cozart is.

[dougdirt]

Right.... Castro is no slouch in the field, and he has shown that he can at least hit for an average (although walking and slugging are rare things to him).

[AdamDunn]

Here's my top-ten of who's left:
1. Zach Cozart
reportedly plays excellent defense and the only question is whether he can hit enough to be a starter in MLB
2. Evan Hildebrandt
has yet to throw a professional inning, but the Reds were willing to pay above-slot money to sign him
3. Ruben Medina
his stats make it look like the hitters were swinging at Billiards balls instead of baseballs
4. Tzu-Kai Chiu
has shown excellent polish but lacks velocity
5. Jordan Smith
has the potential to be a solid back-of-the-rotation innings-eater
6. Sean Henry
if not for his small frame, he would be a highly-touted prospect
7. Jamie Gianchou
the Reds paid him the highest signing bonus for an Australian ever; it's yet to be seen if he will be the best Australian baseball player ever, though
8. Chris Heisey
a somewhat-late draft pick who has surprised people with his skills; I think Danny Dorn stole all his thunder, but he's almost just as worthy of the praise
9. Ryan Hanigan
he's a singles-hitter, but he's a catcher who walks more than he strikes out, which can be very valuable
10. Ramon Ramirez
he blossomed late in his minor league career, and the Reds thought enough of him to put him on the 40-man roster; his ceiling is probably as a middle reliever, but his floor is probably getting a cup of coffee in the Majors

No Derrik Lutz?

[camisadelgolf]

My exact thoughts. How is this guy getting so many votes even at #33 hitting as bad as he did in low A. Jose Castro should be well ahead of Cozart, no matter how good of a fielder Cozart is.

First of all, Cozart skipped rookie ball and has had only 200 at-bats or so. For all we know, if he had started out in a weaker league, his offensive stats could look much better.

Second of all, scouts say (and what scouts say is arguably the biggest reason most of these prospects are ranked as high as they are) that Cozart's bat is good enough for him to ultimately end up as a utility player and possibly as a starting shortstop.

Third of all, it's not like he was striking out every other at-bat. Granted, he didn't drive the ball well, but at least he made contact.

Fourthly, and most importantly, he wasn't drafted by Jim Bowden.

[M2]

First of all, Cozart skipped rookie ball and has had only 200 at-bats or so. For all we know, if he had started out in a weaker league, his offensive stats could look much better.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. He had a .239/.288/.332 line in Dayton. That's pathetic. There was more than a little concern that he wouldn't be able to hit with a wood bat and the early returns are that was correct.


Second of all, scouts say (and what scouts say is arguably the biggest reason most of these prospects are ranked as high as they are) that Cozart's bat is good enough for him to ultimately end up as a utility player and possibly as a starting shortstop.

Scouts say that about hundreds of kids every year who never make a dent in the majors. In Cozart's case, it's just been easier to spot how wrong they likely were on a quicker timetable.


Third of all, it's not like he was striking out every other at-bat. Granted, he didn't drive the ball well, but at least he made contact.

IMO, nothing's scarier than feckless contact. With a guy like Drew Stubbs you can at least postulate that more contact will net better results. What's the argument for Cozart? That he'll get an HGH prescription?

[OnBaseMachine]

I was baffled on draft day when the Reds chose Cozart with that high of a draft pick and I remain baffled to this day. That was a waste of a pick IMO.

[GoReds33]

I really like Castro. He had some good statistics before he was traded here. Even with his promotion to AA last year, he still put up solid numbers. From his MILB stats, he seems like he has an adjustment period between levels. I look for him to have a good year next year between AA and AAA.