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BUTLER REDSFAN
02-06-2008, 10:30 PM
Didn't see it listed elsewhere but FWIW--Paul Daugherty on WLW said about an hour ago his sources are telling him the Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 10:36 PM
I dont know if I believe much out of Pauls mouth to be true.

fewfirstchoice
02-06-2008, 10:36 PM
This is great news if true.He is a young stud that would be the #2 guy here pushing Arroyo to #3.He is a local guy who played for UK and is a great pitcher.I know some here will say they hate it but I love it.I know his roads splits arent great but he is a good pitcher no matter what his splits say.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 10:38 PM
I think saying Blanton would be a 2 here might be pushing it.

I dont even know if I would consider him a stud. Hes a quality pitcher but he also could be eaten alive moving away from Oaklnad.

BearcatShane
02-06-2008, 10:38 PM
Sam Lecure, Chris Dickerson, and Carlos Fisher or a deal involving similar prospects would make me happy.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 10:43 PM
What were his exact words?

BEETTLEBUG
02-06-2008, 10:47 PM
I would like a deal like that but don't give up the big FIVE.

BUTLER REDSFAN
02-06-2008, 10:55 PM
No specifics other than basically what I said before..just that his sources say the Reds are pursuing Blanton--no other names mentioned

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 10:58 PM
I see him as a more experienced Matt Belisle.

BearcatShane
02-06-2008, 10:59 PM
Jeff Keppinger seems like a Billy Beane type player. Maybe he could be part of a deal.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 10:59 PM
No specifics other than basically what I said before..just that his sources say the Reds are pursuing Blanton--no other names mentioned

I only ask because with Doc he tends to say things then retract them by saying he was just speculating

RSNtransplant
02-06-2008, 11:01 PM
Blanton would be another starter that can throw 200 innings, which is a must if Reds want to contend this year. Doesn't walk a bunch of guys, which seems to be a good attribute for a pitcher in a HR park. GB to FB ratio looks much better than other Reds starters, another plus in HR park. Entering Prime age for pitchers. Assuming Bedard goes to Seattle, Blanton looks like next best option.

Newman4
02-06-2008, 11:12 PM
I would like a deal like that but don't give up the big FIVE.

Who is the fifth player of the 5? I know who the big four are.

fewfirstchoice
02-06-2008, 11:13 PM
I could see something like Belisle, Dickerson, Stubbs, and Valika(sp) getting the trade done.I would make that trade everyday of the week.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 11:13 PM
Probably including Volquez

BLEEDS
02-06-2008, 11:14 PM
I'll be waiting anxiously...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 11:40 PM
It scares me to think what Oakland would demand for Blanton.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-06-2008, 11:41 PM
Someone who never pops there head away from the ORG has already posted that there is no point going after Blanton because, if the Cubs land Roberts they will be way too far in front for Blanton to matter. Sorry to bring this to the sun deck but honestly I am tired of reading all of the negative comments and not being able to comment on them. I have noticed that this person seems to care more about flashing their knowledge about stat calculation than their devotion to the Reds as a franchise. I personally have had conflicts about how this team has been constructed in the past, but by reading this persons posts over the last year I would not be suprised to find that they are a fan of another team all together that chooses to post here because of the high quality baseball descussion that this board has available to fans not just of the Reds but all fans of MLB.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 11:48 PM
Does anyone think Blanton would put up an ERA under 4.50 in GABP?

redhawk61
02-06-2008, 11:49 PM
It scares me to think what Oakland would demand for Blanton.

A lot less than what you would think probably with what they accept for Haran (one guy who will be a productive outfielder plus 5 other players who will probably be solid maybe not but nothing to get excited about. Plus the A's threw in an extra player. And with the Santana deal with how weak it was I think it is safe to say the big 5 will be fine and all wear red at somepoint this year.

fewfirstchoice
02-06-2008, 11:49 PM
I agree with ya man.

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 11:51 PM
A lot less than what you would think probably with what they accept for Haran (one guy who will be a productive outfielder plus 5 other players who will probably be solid maybe not but nothing to get excited about. Plus the A's threw in an extra player. And with the Santana deal with how weak it was I think it is safe to say the big 5 will be fine and all wear red at somepoint this year.

If it takes guys out of the top 5 great id explore the trade even more. I might even be skeptical trading guys like Frazier.

The A's normally target MLB ready talent and I dont think the Reds have much to offer in that besides our top 5 or so.

redhawk61
02-06-2008, 11:56 PM
If it takes guys out of the top 5 great id explore the trade even more. I might even be skeptical trading guys like Frazier.

The A's normally target MLB ready talent and I dont think the Reds have much to offer in that besides our top 5 or so.

Well we have plenty of ML ready BP arms and I could see a deal with Pelland in it

Bip Roberts
02-06-2008, 11:59 PM
Well we have plenty of ML ready BP arms and I could see a deal with Pelland in it

I dont think Beane would go for something like that. Thats just speculation I cant back up with any facts though.

Nasty_Boy
02-07-2008, 12:35 AM
If it takes guys out of the top 5 great id explore the trade even more. I might even be skeptical trading guys like Frazier.

The A's normally target MLB ready talent and I dont think the Reds have much to offer in that besides our top 5 or so.

The A's didn't acquire that much MLB ready talent from Arizona. From everything I read only 1 of the 5 is ready. Who knows what Billy is thinking?

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 12:37 AM
The A's didn't acquire that much MLB ready talent from Arizona. From everything I read only 1 of the 5 is ready. Who knows what Billy is thinking?

Beane did take quantity over quality from the Dbacks. So yea who does really know what he takes.

I(heart)Freel
02-07-2008, 12:42 AM
This would please me quite a bit. I'd begun to think that maybe the club would wait til June to go get that vet starter we need in the 3-hole. It would be nice - and better assure that April doesn't suck - if it happened now.

Fingers crossed.

AmarilloRed
02-07-2008, 01:35 AM
Here is the last news I have heard about Blanton: Jan 14,2008

Athletics: While Kotsay was in Atlanta for a physical Monday in the final step to complete the trade with the Braves, an A's source said Monday he's expecting right-hander Blanton to not be traded. The source also expects Blanton to open the season as Oakland's ace, drawing the Opening Day assignment in Japan against the Red Sox.

Blanton's name has surfaced in many rumors since last July, but he's not going to cost the A's much in 2008 because he's arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. The source said the team would have to get a lot more than what it's been offered thus far to part with its only returning starter without recent significant health issues.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080114&content_id=2345442&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

In other words, I would expect the Reds to have to offer more now than they did back then, or the A's will not trade Blanton.

SMcGavin
02-07-2008, 01:44 AM
Does anyone think Blanton would put up an ERA under 4.50 in GABP?

I do. First of all he's got some solid ground ball tendencies and doesn't give up many homers. Secondly he has developed great control: only 1.6 BB/9 last season. If you can keep them off the bases, the homers he does allow won't be as damaging. You'd like to see more strikeouts but he Ks enough to be effective, especially with that control.

I don't think he's gonna set the world on fire but an ERA in the 4.00-4.50 seems like a reasonable guess. Of course it depends on what the A's are asking for but IMO Blanton would make us a significantly better team in 08.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 02:47 AM
I do. First of all he's got some solid ground ball tendencies and doesn't give up many homers. Secondly he has developed great control: only 1.6 BB/9 last season. If you can keep them off the bases, the homers he does allow won't be as damaging. You'd like to see more strikeouts but he Ks enough to be effective, especially with that control.

I don't think he's gonna set the world on fire but an ERA in the 4.00-4.50 seems like a reasonable guess. Of course it depends on what the A's are asking for but IMO Blanton would make us a significantly better team in 08.

What scares me about Blanton his away era is over 5 the last 2 years, and his career road is over 4.50 while his home is 3.55. Thats quite a large split.

I think hes a decent pitcher but call me crazy if I'm not jumping for joy if he takes any of our top guys. His numbers are very similar to Belisle and I cant imagine many people on this board being happy if we traded anyone of our prospects for another Matt.

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2008, 11:09 AM
Everyone on the ORG is suggesting Joey Votto (and others) in a deal for Blanton. And then the deal (proposed) for Bedard was also all around Votto.

Why have all the fans gone sour on Joey Votto?!? I firmly include him in the top 4 that you simply DO NOT DEAL! Who else do we have to play 1B? Keppinger? Nah, I like him better in the other 3 infield spots.

I'm just kinda sick of the fans here offering up Votto to the trading rumor gods. All the kid has done is put up sick numbers in the minors. He finally makes it to the bigs late last year and puts up STELLAR numbers. Let's see what Joey can do in a full big league season before we even think about pulling the rug out from under him.

With that being said...I'm not against going after Blanton. But as I said...NOT if it includes any of the big 4. A decent number of lower prospects, maybe a Freel/Stanton and I'd certainly look into it. But all Blanton gets us is an innings eater for this year (isn't he only signed for this year?). And this year, we're simply NOT going anywhere. Our real window of opportunity doesn't begin until 2009. But that window is a pretty darned BIG window right now. Dealing the youth will close it considerably rather quickly. And Votto is a big part of that youth. We simply can't afford to be dealing offense right now. We dealt enough of it already with the Hamilton deal. Reds fans seem to be delusional in thinking that our offense is "potent". It's not. It's middle of the road right now.

BEETTLEBUG
02-07-2008, 11:15 AM
I am not for TRADING Votto but we have ex- Yankee Andy Phillips to play first.

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2008, 11:28 AM
Phillips? Are you serious? No thanks. He doesn't have anywhere CLOSE to the upside that Joey's got. Right now we need hitters for our position players. And Andy has not done much up to now.

In 4 years, 203 ab's, 11 hr's, 60 rbi's, 3 sb's, 96 k's!!!, and a paltry .253 average. A first baseman who hits for a low average and strikes out HALF the time is not what we need in our lineup. Stick him in the minors and see if he can reclaim his swing....or deal him for someone who CAN help us. The .292 average last year looks like an aberation in a small sample. I'll pass.

mlbfan30
02-07-2008, 12:24 PM
Phillips? Are you serious? No thanks. He doesn't have anywhere CLOSE to the upside that Joey's got. Right now we need hitters for our position players. And Andy has not done much up to now.

In 4 years, 203 ab's, 11 hr's, 60 rbi's, 3 sb's, 96 k's!!!, and a paltry .253 average. A first baseman who hits for a low average and strikes out HALF the time is not what we need in our lineup. Stick him in the minors and see if he can reclaim his swing....or deal him for someone who CAN help us. The .292 average last year looks like an aberation in a small sample. I'll pass.

Because I'm sure Phillips is better than Hatty and Votto. That's why he should start. Also Affeldt is better than Belisle and Bailey. And Valentine is better than Ross. Hopper is better than Bruce. Stanton is better than me. All these are great ideas to run a team straight into last place.

BEETTLEBUG
02-07-2008, 12:49 PM
Stanton may be better than you I don't know you. What about Craig Wilson?

BLEEDS
02-07-2008, 01:14 PM
If it takes guys out of the top 5 great id explore the trade even more. I might even be skeptical trading guys like Frazier.

The A's normally target MLB ready talent and I dont think the Reds have much to offer in that besides our top 5 or so.

I don't think we can even trade Frazier (I believe dougd stated this).

I wouldn't trade Votto either. His power translates too well for us to trade him in a position of non-depth.

Cueto - is probably a guy who translates to be Blanton in 2-3+ years. I'd trade him for Blanton so we can use him NOW.

Bailey - probably not.

As was argued over in the ORG, "to say that our 5+ ERA rotation has no place for Blanton", is downright ludicrous.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

HBP
02-07-2008, 01:26 PM
I don't think we can even trade Frazier (I believe dougd stated this).



Correct. Can't trade a player until a year after his signing date of first pro contract.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 01:41 PM
I don't think we can even trade Frazier (I believe dougd stated this).

I wouldn't trade Votto either. His power translates too well for us to trade him in a position of non-depth.

Cueto - is probably a guy who translates to be Blanton in 2-3+ years. I'd trade him for Blanton so we can use him NOW.

Bailey - probably not.

As was argued over in the ORG, "to say that our 5+ ERA rotation has no place for Blanton", is downright ludicrous.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
So you in fact would trade Cueto for a guy very similar to Belisle?

AmarilloRed
02-07-2008, 02:43 PM
Both Daugherty and Ken Rosenthal are suggesting the Reds are now talking to Oakland about Joe Blanton, so I suggest there may be some validity to this rumor. It would be a risk to trade Votto however, as there is no one comparable in the minor league system to take over for Votto.

NorrisHopper30
02-07-2008, 02:50 PM
Why would the A's want Votto? They are already trying to get rid of Johnson, and Barton is solid.

BLEEDS
02-07-2008, 03:18 PM
So you in fact would trade Cueto for a guy very similar to Belisle?

That is your opinion.
Belisle can only DREAM of becoming Blanton.
It is yet to be proven that Belisle is anything other than a 5.32 ERA pitcher over 30 starts. It's always fascinating that people think their OWN players will somehow translate to shaving .75+ off their ERA's, but that other pitchers can only do worse.

I would take Blanton and put him in the #3, and push Belisle to the #4. Then let Affeldt/Volquez/Bailey battle over the #5 spot - and more than likely let Homer start the year in AAA.

Again it's popular opinion, shared by many on this board, so I don't expect you to understand or agree.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 03:29 PM
That is your opinion.
Belisle can only DREAM of becoming Blanton.
It is yet to be proven that Belisle is anything other than a 5.32 ERA pitcher over 30 starts. It's always fascinating that people think their OWN players will somehow translate to shaving .75+ off their ERA's, but that other pitchers can only do worse.

I would take Blanton and put him in the #3, and push Belisle to the #4. Then let Affeldt/Volquez/Bailey battle over the #5 spot - and more than likely let Homer start the year in AAA.

Again it's popular opinion, shared by many on this board, so I don't expect you to understand or agree.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Many people share my opinion that Blanton is a slightly better version of Belisle, and the stats actually back it up.

Stephenk29
02-07-2008, 04:18 PM
Blanton > Belisle

by a lot.

Make the trade

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 04:19 PM
Blanton > Belisle

by a lot.

Make the trade

Why do you think its by a lot? Yes Blanton is better than Belisle but I would very much disagree its by a lot.

jmac
02-07-2008, 04:28 PM
That is your opinion.
Belisle can only DREAM of becoming Blanton.
It is yet to be proven that Belisle is anything other than a 5.32 ERA pitcher over 30 starts. It's always fascinating that people think their OWN players will somehow translate to shaving .75+ off their ERA's, but that other pitchers can only do worse.

I would take Blanton and put him in the #3, and push Belisle to the #4. Then let Affeldt/Volquez/Bailey battle over the #5 spot - and more than likely let Homer start the year in AAA.

Again it's popular opinion, shared by many on this board, so I don't expect you to understand or agree.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Actually today I was thinking almost similar to this except let : belisle, bailey, volquez,affeldt battle for final 2 spots.
To me, Belisle should have to earn it in ST.

Stephenk29
02-07-2008, 04:31 PM
Well Blanton has been in the league 3 full years as a starter. Ever year has been much better than Belisle's single season. In Blanton's worst year his era was 4.83. Belisle's was a hefty 5.32 last year. Some on this board will even argue that Belisle's not even going to improve, that we should just banish him form the rotation. I for one think he will have a much better year, but dropping his era a full .5 would be a pretty big push. Blanton has consistently been a productive pitcher, in the AL for what its worth. Blanton would make a solid #3 and Belisle would be a decent 5 maybe 4.

Ok lets just say I take your view for a second. Blanton is still better than Belisle right? Therefore like Bleeds said Blanton would probably be our #3 starter. That makes our rotation a lot better right now. Blanton is better than than any other starter we have (other than Harang and Arroyo). How can you not want to improve the rotation?

I'd do a Cueto and change for Blanton. Yeah Cueto is a big prospect, but so was Willie Greene and John Roper at one point. Willie Green was ranked #24 prospect in the bigs back in the day. That's higher than Cueto and Votto have ever been. We all have a man crush on Cueto but the thing is he's still just a prospect. Willie Greene never amounted to much. Can you be so sure Cueto will be? Blanton will help now and for a couple years down the road. It's going to take Cueto at least (realistically) two years to see any significant time.

RSNtransplant
02-07-2008, 04:35 PM
Well Blanton has been in the league 3 full years as a starter. Ever year has been much better than Belisle's single season. In Blanton's worst year his era was 4.83. Belisle's was a hefty 5.32 last year. Some on this board will even argue that Belisle's not even going to improve, that we should just banish him form the rotation. I for one think he will have a much better year, but dropping his era a full .5 would be a pretty big push. Blanton has consistently been a productive pitcher, in the AL for what its worth. Blanton would make a solid #3 and Belisle would be a decent 5 maybe 4.

Ok lets just say I take your view for a second. Blanton is still better than Belisle right? Therefore like Bleeds said Blanton would probably be our #3 starter. That makes our rotation a lot better right now. Blanton is better than than any other starter we have (other than Harang and Arroyo). How can you not want to improve the rotation?

I'd do a Cueto and change for Blanton. Yeah Cueto is a big prospect, but so was Willie Greene and John Roper at one point. Willie Green was ranked #24 prospect in the bigs back in the day. That's higher than Cueto and Votto have ever been. We all have a man crush on Cueto but the thing is he's still just a prospect. Willie Greene never amounted to much. Can you be so sure Cueto will be? Blanton will help now and for a couple years down the road. It's going to take Cueto at least (realistically) two years to see any significant time.

= smart.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 04:46 PM
Blantons Career MLB Numbers
h/9: 9.45
HR/9: 0.81
BB/9: 2.37
k/9: 5.24
Whip: 1.31
GB/FB: 45%

Belisle 1 year of MLB starting experiance
h/9: 10.74
HR/9: 1.32
BB/9: 2.18
K/9: 6.33
whip:1.44
GB/FB: isnt given but has a Career of a 54%

While Blanton is a better pitcher I dont think hes the guy you would give up one of your prospects for. Most think Belisle sucks and shouldnt be in the majors but I dont understand the total fascination with Blanton being some stud thats that much better. Hes better yes but not for the price of our 4 top guys. Remember Blanton gets to pitch in the biggest pitcher friendly park in the majors. I see his H/9 going up, his HR/9 going up a little bit and his inning pitch going down also while making the switch over here. I think a 4.50-5.00 era is what we would get out of Blanton. Its not about me saying no to adding blanton its me saying no to the price.

Stephenk29
02-07-2008, 04:54 PM
I'm not trying to say Blanton is some super stud either, but he would be a great addition to the team. I think everyone has way to big of an opinion on our prospects (maybe because their are only hope?). Trading Cueto wouldn't be that big of a deal I wouldn't think. We still have Bailey and Volquez. Cueto has the lowest ceiling. He's seem the most logical of a pitcher to trade. Blanton has been fairly consistant over his short career. We at least have a pretty good idea of how he's going to work out. Cueto is a giant question mark. To me centering a package around Cueto means we plan for the future as well as competing now. Bailey and Volquez are certainly higher on the radar in our minds I would think.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 04:59 PM
I'm not trying to say Blanton is some super stud either, but he would be a great addition to the team. I think everyone has way to big of an opinion on our prospects (maybe because their are only hope?). Trading Cueto wouldn't be that big of a deal I wouldn't think. We still have Bailey and Volquez. Cueto has the lowest ceiling. He's seem the most logical of a pitcher to trade. Blanton has been fairly consistant over his short career. We at least have a pretty good idea of how he's going to work out. Cueto is a giant question mark. To me centering a package around Cueto means we plan for the future as well as competing now. Bailey and Volquez are certainly higher on the radar in our minds I would think.

I respect your opinion a ton actually because you seem like the type of guy that understands the need of keeping the prospects, but I still stand by that Cueto is still a high price to pay for a guy with the pitching style of Blanton.

Stephenk29
02-07-2008, 05:03 PM
Trust me I am all about our prospects and trying to keep them, but truth be told we do have decent amount of quality prospects. Why not use that advantage to help us now? Prospects are such a crap shoot. Cueto might be the only one to pan out in the end, but who really knows?

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 05:05 PM
Trust me I am all about our prospects and trying to keep them, but truth be told we do have decent amount of quality prospects. Why not use that advantage to help us now? Prospects are such a crap shoot. Cueto might be the only one to pan out in the end, but who really knows?

I agree its just I think Blanton is the wrong target.

Unless the asking price is cheaper.

Stephenk29
02-07-2008, 05:07 PM
Well Bedard would be awesome, but that ship has sailed. Peter Angelos is a moron. I'm tired of reading about the "upcoming" trade that will be finalized by Monday, or Tuesday, I mean next Saturday.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 05:12 PM
Well Bedard would be awesome, but that ship has sailed. Peter Angelos is a moron. I'm tired of reading about the "upcoming" trade that will be finalized by Monday, or Tuesday, I mean next Saturday.

If Blanton was a left hander I might be a little more interested in trading maybe Cueto for but honestly its not even that Im over valuing the prospects its that I just dont think hes going to translate into what everyone wishes he would for us.

FreelFanatic
02-07-2008, 05:38 PM
While Blanton is a better pitcher I dont think hes the guy you would give up one of your prospects for. Most think Belisle sucks and shouldnt be in the majors but I dont understand the total fascination with Blanton being some stud thats that much better. Hes better yes but not for the price of our 4 top guys. Remember Blanton gets to pitch in the biggest pitcher friendly park in the majors. I see his H/9 going up, his HR/9 going up a little bit and his inning pitch going down also while making the switch over here. I think a 4.50-5.00 era is what we would get out of Blanton. Its not about me saying no to adding blanton its me saying no to the price.

I think this is the arm-chair GM's biggest problem. We can't separate being a Reds fan from the larger picture. Yes, these are our top four guys. But it's like owning baseball cards. They're not worth the cardboard they're printed on unless someone else wants them, and is willing to give up something for them. And I'll agree with Stephenk29, now that we have a surplus of "prospects," use that to our advantage. We haven't had that option in the (recent) past. You have to give up something to get something. And if everyone here can believe Blanton is a better #3 option than Belisle (which is what I keep reading, on both boards), then yes, Blanton is something.

BLEEDS
02-07-2008, 05:46 PM
If Blanton was a left hander I might be a little more interested in trading maybe Cueto for but honestly its not even that Im over valuing the prospects its that I just dont think hes going to translate into what everyone wishes he would for us.

Yes, but a 5.32 ERA pitcher, and 3-4 unknown prospects will, that's what I referred to earlier. Remarkable.

You know, ONE of the reasons you invest in your Farm system, is so you can TRADE some of those Prospects for Proven ML value. Otherwise, you end up being in rebuilding mode, forever, if everyone doesn't pan out.

Otherwise, the only way you EVER win, is if ALL of your prospects work out, all at the same time. Hence, my sig quote (taken from jojo).

Look at the Boston Celtics, circa 2006. FULL of "Prospects", but you can only keep at the bottom of the standings so long before you figure out that 15 prospects aren't = 2 proven Vets.

Since we aren't trading 6 of our prospects for Bedard/Santana (KG), we are now looking at trading some lower level guys and ONE number one pick (Cueto) for Ray Allen, and keeping MOST of our other prospects so we can continue to build around Paul Pierce (Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, BP)...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 05:47 PM
Well our top 2 guys are better and ranked higher than a large portion of some teams number 1 ranked guys ans our 3 and 4 are ranked higher than a lot of teams 2s. So yes they are our guys but just because we have build up a surplus doesnt mean we should sell them at discount. Im not against trading prospects im just against trading ones ranked as high as ours for a guy whos numbers outside of his home pitcher friendly park arent all that good.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 05:51 PM
Yes, but a 5.32 ERA pitcher, and 3-4 unknown prospects will, that's what I referred to earlier. Remarkable.

You know, ONE of the reasons you invest in your Farm system, is so you can TRADE some of those Prospects for Proven ML value. Otherwise, you end up being in rebuilding mode, forever, if everyone doesn't pan out.

Otherwise, the only way you EVER win, is if ALL of your prospects work out, all at the same time. Hence, my sig quote (taken from jojo).

Look at the Boston Celtics, circa 2006. FULL of "Prospects", but you can only keep at the bottom of the standings so long before you figure out that 15 prospects aren't = 2 proven Vets.

Since we aren't trading 6 of our prospects for Bedard/Santana (KG), we are now looking at trading some lower level guys and ONE number one pick (Cueto) for Ray Allen, and keeping MOST of our other prospects so we can continue to build around Paul Pierce (Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, BP)...

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Every pitcher is a unknown at some point in their career. I would trade some prospects for Blanton but im not dealing any in our top 4 for him.

Blantons career era away from oakland is 4.66... Do you think thats going to magically drop once he gets to GABP?

FreelFanatic
02-07-2008, 05:55 PM
C.Trent gets in his two cents:

http://www.1530homer.com/pages/ctrent.html


Blanton to the Reds?
Thursday 02-07-2008 4:40pm ET
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal is reporting it's a 50-50 chance that the A's trade pitcher Joe Blanton and the Reds and Dodgers are the two serious contenders to land the right-hander, who just turned 27.

I'm not sure what the A's are looking for, but expect Joey Votto to be one piece. The team would probably need to throw in another top prospect, be it Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto. If you can get Blanton for Votto and Bailey/Cueto, it may be tough to pull the trigger on it, but it could be a good deal for both sides. I think I'd do it. It's also much less than the Orioles were asking for Erik Bedard -- and a whole lot less than the Mariners gave up. This one is realistic. Oakland knows not to even mention Jay Bruce as anything more than a punchline.

Another factor to consider is that Krivsky has traded quite a bit already with Billy Beane. Last year Cincinnati traded outfielder Chris Denorfia to Oakland for Marcus McBeth and Ben Jukich. Before last season, Krivsky traded for right-hander Kirk Saarloos and a player to be named (RHP Daniel Denham) for RHP David Shafer and a player to be named (RHP Julio Manon).

All of a sudden, your top of the rotation would be:
Harang
Arroyo
Blanton (who could be a 2)
and then pick two: Homer Bailey/Johnny Cueto (whichever is left), Matt Belisle, Jeremy Affeldt, Matt Maloney, Edinson Volquez

All of a sudden, you're a contender in the NL Central. That could be a heck of a deal. You also have Hatteberg/Keppinger at first to take up Votto's spot.

BLEEDS
02-07-2008, 06:02 PM
Blantons career era away from oakland is 4.66... Do you think thats going to magically drop once he gets to GABP?

AL to NL, don't know if you are aware of this, but there's this little thing called the "Designated Hitter" that we don't have here in the National League.

Did you see what Bronson Arroyo did in his first year switching leagues? I'm more expecting that than anything else, and perhaps a 2009 bounce similar once hitters get used to him.

Argue all the metrics you want - but his numbers translate WELL to GABP, because he doesn't give up many HR's and he has groundball tendencies.

Hilarious is that you EXPECT Belisle to cut his ERA .75, but this guy, who you think is on the same level/metrics/etc. you expect it to go up.

If Matt Belisle played in the AL and posted a 5.32 ERA and Joe Blanton played for the Reds, I wonder what your contention would be...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2008, 06:04 PM
Blanton > Belisle

by a lot.

Make the trade

Be that as it may. But doesn't it still rest upon WHAT that trade would be?

Let's look at it this way. Where do the reds have an overabundance of talent? 1B? I don't think so. OF's? Nope, not since Josh left. Offense? Nope. Defense? *laughs* Young pitching prospects....yep. But here's the thing, and there's just no getting around this, does bringing Blanton in THIS YEAR get us to the playoffs if we trade away one of the trio (Bailey, Cueto & Volquez)? Well, if you live in fantasyland...sure. But for a dose of reality...no, not a chance. Adding a number 3 starter to a 90 loss team does not translate into a playoff run. So, if we can land Blanton with minor league prospects (outside of our prized studs) then I say we give it a go, if not...leave him be. The goal here is not to get Blanton to take us to the next level. It's to get Blanton to help us ease the rook's into the bigs. 2009 and on are our target zones. Don't scrap the young talent for a ill-advised shot at the playoffs this year. 'Nuff said.

SMcGavin
02-07-2008, 06:07 PM
I would love to add Blanton, but I'm hestitant to trade Cueto for him. I'm not so sure Cueto isn't a surer bet to be a solid MLB starter than Bailey. These are Johnny's K:BB numbers for his 3 seasons of pro ball:

Age 19 (Rookie/A+): 44 K, 10 BB
Age 20 (A/A+): 143 K, 38 BB
Age 21 (A+/AA/AAA): 170 K, 34 BB

That is dominant. Sure prospects fail sometimes. But Cueto has never struggled and has experienced success at pretty high levels. He threw 160 innings last year, plus whatever he threw in winter league. He seems like a guy who is a pretty sure bet to be an MLB contributer at some point, and we'd have him cheap for six years. I can see both sides of this argument but I think I'd hold on to Cueto, as I don't think this team is good enough that the addition of Blanton is going to push it over the top.

SMcGavin
02-07-2008, 06:11 PM
What scares me about Blanton his away era is over 5 the last 2 years, and his career road is over 4.50 while his home is 3.55. Thats quite a large split.

You're right on the split but I think it's mainly luck. Check out the career #s:

Home (319 IP): 181 K, 79 BB, 28 HR allowed
Road (314 IP): 188 K, 88 BB, 29 HR allowed

Seems awfully consistent to me. His home BABIP is .273, road BABIP .318. So I wouldn't worry too much about his home/road splits.

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 06:33 PM
AL to NL, don't know if you are aware of this, but there's this little thing called the "Designated Hitter" that we don't have here in the National League. Did you see what Bronson Arroyo did in his first year switching leagues? I'm more expecting that than anything else, and perhaps a 2009 bounce similar once hitters get used to him.
Arroyo was coming from the AL east not the AL west. Bronson also pitched in Boston. The AL west isnt the greatest of hitting divisions and hit on average less homers per team than the NL central. Im also not figuring in the D that the reds lack over Oakland.

Argue all the metrics you want - but his numbers translate WELL to GABP, because he doesn't give up many HR's and he has groundball tendencies.

You didnt just say a low strike out high hits pitcher translates well to GABP did you?

Hilarious is that you EXPECT Belisle to cut his ERA .75, but this guy, who you think is on the same level/metrics/etc. you expect it to go up.
I dont think its unreasonable to expect Blantons numbers to raise and Belisle to drop. I dont expect his number to drop .75 runs and have never said I expected them. I find it hilarious that you think Belisle cant improve while Blanton cant get worse. Blanton right now is better than Belisle no doubt about it. Its not all that much better though. If we can get Blanton for the right price Id love to do it, but if that price includes our studs then Im very much against it.

If Matt Belisle played in the AL and posted a 5.32 ERA and Joe Blanton played for the Reds, I wonder what your contention would be...

:confused:

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 06:35 PM
You're right on the split but I think it's mainly luck. Check out the career #s:

Home (319 IP): 181 K, 79 BB, 28 HR allowed
Road (314 IP): 188 K, 88 BB, 29 HR allowed

Seems awfully consistent to me. His home BABIP is .273, road BABIP .318. So I wouldn't worry too much about his home/road splits.

I dont think its luck when you consider the park he pitches in.

BLEEDS
02-07-2008, 07:19 PM
You didnt just say a low strike out high hits pitcher translates well to GABP did you?

He misses enough bats. It's his K/BB and his GB tendencies that translate well to GABP>



I dont expect his number to drop .75 runs and have never said I expected them.

You've said everything from you are fine with Belisle as long as he's our #5, to you expect him to pitch just like Arroyo - because his FIP is 4.50. You ignore things such as his very hittable flat fastball, which greatly contributes to his "unluckiness" and his BABIP.



:confused:

Yes, you are.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-07-2008, 07:25 PM
He misses enough bats. It's his K/BB and his GB tendencies that translate well to GABP>



You've said everything from you are fine with Belisle as long as he's our #5, to you expect him to pitch just like Arroyo - because his FIP is 4.50. You ignore things such as his very hittable flat fastball, which greatly contributes to his "unluckiness" and his BABIP.



Yes, you are.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

You asked if Blanton pitched for the reds and Belisle pitched for oakland and had a 5.23 ERA what would i say bad about blanton? What please explain what you are even asking. Im sorry I cant understand your weird question.

I said I expect Belisle to be as good as Arroyo? Huh? You are flat out making stuff up. I would never say such a thing.

Blanton misses enough bats... compared to who?

fewfirstchoice
02-07-2008, 07:34 PM
After thinking about I think I may have a slight idea what it would take to get Blanton.The A's would want a young prospect in return, Votto is that. They would also probably want another pitcher to plug into the rotation to take JB place,that could be Belisle or Maloney.Then they would probably ask for another B prospect, maybe Stubbs or Wood.I would trade any of those 3 for Blanton.

redsupport
02-07-2008, 09:41 PM
Trade Bailey post haste

AmarilloRed
02-08-2008, 01:39 AM
Here is what the A's are asking:

Blanton update

The Reds and A's definitely have talked. But the A's are asking a lot for Joe Blanton -- probably Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, plus Joey Votto and a third player. I thought the A's would want Bailey badly based on his start in Oakland -- 7 innings, two hits, one run in a 4-2 win -- but then I remembered Billy Beane doesn't watch games.

The deal could happen if the A's back off the price a bit.

posted by John Fay at 8:25 PM

That is quite a bit to ask for, especially given what the A's got for Haren. I am beginning to wonder how serious the A's really are about trading Blanton.

Bip Roberts
02-08-2008, 01:40 AM
9:14pm: Fay suggests the A's would want Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and a third player for Blanton.

:ughmamoru What a joke.

SMcGavin
02-08-2008, 01:54 AM
Here is what the A's are asking:

Blanton update

The Reds and A's definitely have talked. But the A's are asking a lot for Joe Blanton -- probably Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, plus Joey Votto and a third player. I thought the A's would want Bailey badly based on his start in Oakland -- 7 innings, two hits, one run in a 4-2 win -- but then I remembered Billy Beane doesn't watch games.

The deal could happen if the A's back off the price a bit.

posted by John Fay at 8:25 PM

That is quite a bit to ask for, especially given what the A's got for Haren. I am beginning to wonder how serious the A's really are about trading Blanton.

Wow, Bailey + Votto AND a third player? WK is a smart guy, there's no way he's seriously considering that type of trade.

Stephenk29
02-08-2008, 09:02 AM
Yeah can't see him doing that. That is WAAAY to much for Blanton.

minus5
02-08-2008, 10:19 AM
Yeah can't see him doing that. That is WAAAY to much for Blanton.

That was Fay completely speculating...he also speculated a deal for Bedard being done at the end of the week......6 weeks ago or so. Fay's just talking to talk. I can't see them giving that much up for Blanton....but, who knows.

_Sir_Charles_
02-08-2008, 10:49 AM
I agree, Fay is just speculating. But regardless, that's WAAAAAAY too much for a pitcher of Blanton's caliber. To be honest, I'm not sure I would've done that for Bedard. Simply put, we can't afford to lose more offense. Now if we hadn't done the Hamilton trade...then I'd consider moving Votto...but it would have to be a VERY good deal for us. Because we simply don't have many solid options for 1B coming up that I see. I don't see Hatteberg replicating his numbers from last year and Keppinger is better suited at other positions. I vote that we stand pat with what we currently have. Let's see how the young'uns develop.

Bip Roberts
02-08-2008, 10:57 AM
Joe Blanton !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Give up Votto right now. I like Votto. You have to give to get. Blanton gives you 200 innings a year. Makes less than 4 million this year. Gets a huge raise next year. Junior is off the books next year if the Reds want. Get Blanton and not only is he your number 2 starter, but that makes the REDS the favorite in the division.....Seriously !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Alan Cutler chiming in. This is why our sports talk shows are so terrible in this town.

Nasty_Boy
02-08-2008, 11:08 AM
Alan Cutler chiming in. This is why our sports talk show are so terrible in this town.


Blanton is a Kentucky boy and Cutler loves his boys from the bluegrass state.

I also love how people are comparing our prospects to John Roper and Willie Greene. Those guys were big players in the Reds minor league system, but they weren't considered the best prospects in baseball. And I like how some of you want to use our major league ready prospects for an average pitcher that doesn't translate well to GABP. For the 1st time since I've been alive the Reds are finally building a team the right way with scouting and player development. Bailey and Cueto are under the Reds control for 6 years once they begin their service time. Baseball economics 101 says you don't trade these guys. The Reds can possibly have 2 top end pitchers and barely have any money invested in them. Of course they may not pan out, but I would rather take my chances with guys that scouts are drooling over that trade them for an overweight pitcher that won't get the Reds over the top.

RadioWink
02-08-2008, 11:58 AM
Am I the only one who feels MUCH better about these type negotiations with Jocketty in the mix?!?

Bip Roberts
02-08-2008, 12:00 PM
Am I the only one who feels MUCH better about these type negotiations with Jocketty in the mix?!?

Not because its Jocketty but just because its more people in the front office.

BLEEDS
02-08-2008, 12:03 PM
Someone mentioned Jockety got fleeced the last time he dealt with Beane.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

ChatterRed
02-08-2008, 12:04 PM
I have not read this entire thread, but there seems to be alot of negativity about Blanton.

I am looking at his stats right now and honestly, to have an era under 4.00 in the AL is pretty good.

He came up in 2004 but only pitched in 8 games.
He had sub 4.00 e.r.a.'s in 2005 and 2007. He had an off year with an e.r.a. of 4.85 in 2006. This past year was his best season to date. And in 2005 and 2007 his WHIP was 1.22 in each (pretty good). He's only 28 years old and eats up 200 plus innings a year.

I'm not a big fan of Bailey. Bailey reaks of a primadonna that does not take instruction well based on comments I've heard coming straight from the horse's mouth (his). He has two pitches and that's it. He can blow people away in the minors but can't overpower the major league hitters. I was expecting alot more K's from him and he isn't striking out hardly anyone. I think Bailey will turn out to be more like a 4 or 5 pitcher, rather than a 1, 2, or 3.

Therefore, if they want Bailey, I do it in a heartbeat for Blanton.

I have more faith in Cueto than Bailey. Cueto has earned the attention he has by producing. Bailey has been hyped from day one............and has produced at times in the minor leagues, but I think his pitches limit him.

Just my opinion.

Bip Roberts
02-08-2008, 12:09 PM
What things have you heard out of Baileys mouth if you dont mind me asking.

BLEEDS
02-08-2008, 12:39 PM
Blanton is a lot closer to a 2 than Bailey is right now, that is for sure.

Something tells me Beane knows this, and is why he (was rumored) asking for Cueto instead of Bailey in other talks.

I'd still keep Bailey over Cueto because he has more upside/ceiling than Cueto, and will grow into his body. Cueto has a much lower ceiling, and is closer to it.

I'd be happy giving up either ONE of them for a proven guy like Blanton. I would NOT throw Votto in the mix. You'll find me in the group that thinks we can't afford to give up that type of offense, especially at that position. Send them Stubbs and other AA/AAA fodder along with one of our young pitchers.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Newman4
02-08-2008, 01:25 PM
I wouldn't trade either Bailey or Cueto. Bailey or Cueto plus anything is better than what they received for Haren.

Stephenk29
02-08-2008, 01:45 PM
I also love how people are comparing our prospects to John Roper and Willie Greene. Those guys were big players in the Reds minor league system, but they weren't considered the best prospects in baseball.

Green was ranked higher than Troy Percival, Phil Nevin, Todd Jones, Derek Jeter, Pokey Reese, Edgar Renteria, and Carl Everett just to name a few. He was definitely a big time prospect.

1993 Top Baseball Prospects
1. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
2. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
3. Cliff Floyd, of, Expos
4. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays
5. Tim Salmon, of, Angels
6. Wil Cordero, ss, Expos
7. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
8. Jason Bere, rhp, White Sox
9. Allen Watson, lhp, Cardinals
10. Tyrone Hill, lhp, Brewers
11. Kurt Miller, rhp, Rangers
12. Dmitri Young, 3b, Cardinals
13. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
14. Ray McDavid, of, Padres
15. Rondell White, of, Expos
16. David McCarty, 1b-of, Twins
17. Tavo Alvarez, rhp, Expos
18. Brad Pennington, lhp, Orioles
19. Jeffrey Hammonds, of, Orioles
20. Javy Lopez, c, Braves
21. Benji Gil, ss, Rangers
22. Johnny Damon, of, Royals
23. David Nied, rhp, Rockies
24. Willie Greene, 3b, Reds
25. Frank Rodriguez, rhp, Red Sox
26. Ryan Klesko, 1b, Braves
27. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays
28. Bobby Jones, rhp, Mets
29. Troy Percival, rhp, Angels
30. Phil Nevin, 3b, Astros
31. Tyler Green, rhp, Phillies
32. Jim Pittsley, rhp, Royals
33. Calvin Murray, of, Giants
34. Mike Kelly, of, Braves
35. Kevin Young, 3b-1b, Pirates
36. John Roper, rhp, Reds

Stephenk29
02-08-2008, 02:05 PM
I'd be happy giving up either ONE of them for a proven guy like Blanton. I would NOT throw Votto in the mix. You'll find me in the group that thinks we can't afford to give up that type of offense, especially at that position. Send them Stubbs and other AA/AAA fodder along with one of our young pitchers.



That's my line of thinking as well. I bet Beane has a ridiculous asking price though. I could definitely live with the situation above.

_Sir_Charles_
02-08-2008, 02:18 PM
Scouts are quite often wrong on how prospects will pan out. But they're RARELY wrong about prospects in the top 10 of all of the minor leagues. The odds of Bailey becoming a legitimate ACE are still VERY good. Add in the fact that we've got him under control for 6 (?) years and he should have a higher priority than Joe Blanton. Blanton has been in the bigs now for 4 (?) years and all he's proven to be is an innings eater. An upper 4 era and inconsistant as hell. Look at his splits from month to month. 2-3 era one month, 4-6 the next, and on and on. Home and away are pretty far apart as well. Those career numbers are obviously inflated due to his home park. I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher or that I don't want him. He is, and I do. But he's not worth scrapping the future for. Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Cueto should be untouchable (or at least pretty darned close to that). We've got more than enough talent below the top 4 to still pull in a good player when we need one. Since we're not winning it this year, we don't NEED a player right now. Especially not a rental like most of the FA's out there. So if we can snag Blanton for lower minor leaguers or players we have quality subs for...then go for it. But not the top 4 rooks. That's overpaying for something that won't solve a problem.

smoke6
02-08-2008, 09:33 PM
Green was ranked higher than Troy Percival, Phil Nevin, Todd Jones, Derek Jeter, Pokey Reese, Edgar Renteria, and Carl Everett just to name a few. He was definitely a big time prospect.

1993 Top Baseball Prospects
1. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
2. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
3. Cliff Floyd, of, Expos
4. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays
5. Tim Salmon, of, Angels
6. Wil Cordero, ss, Expos
7. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
8. Jason Bere, rhp, White Sox
9. Allen Watson, lhp, Cardinals
10. Tyrone Hill, lhp, Brewers
11. Kurt Miller, rhp, Rangers
12. Dmitri Young, 3b, Cardinals
13. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
14. Ray McDavid, of, Padres
15. Rondell White, of, Expos
16. David McCarty, 1b-of, Twins
17. Tavo Alvarez, rhp, Expos
18. Brad Pennington, lhp, Orioles
19. Jeffrey Hammonds, of, Orioles
20. Javy Lopez, c, Braves
21. Benji Gil, ss, Rangers
22. Johnny Damon, of, Royals
23. David Nied, rhp, Rockies
24. Willie Greene, 3b, Reds
25. Frank Rodriguez, rhp, Red Sox
26. Ryan Klesko, 1b, Braves
27. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays
28. Bobby Jones, rhp, Mets
29. Troy Percival, rhp, Angels
30. Phil Nevin, 3b, Astros
31. Tyler Green, rhp, Phillies
32. Jim Pittsley, rhp, Royals
33. Calvin Murray, of, Giants
34. Mike Kelly, of, Braves
35. Kevin Young, 3b-1b, Pirates
36. John Roper, rhp, Reds

OMG, I remember this guy. He was supposed to the second coming. What ever happened to him?

SMcGavin
02-08-2008, 09:49 PM
The odds of Bailey becoming a legitimate ACE are still VERY good.

While I agree with the general sentiment about keeping our prospects, this is not even close to being true. All you need to do is look at that prospect list from 1993 to see that.

757690
02-08-2008, 10:23 PM
While I agree with the general sentiment about keeping our prospects, this is not even close to being true. All you need to do is look at that prospect list from 1993 to see that.

Scouting has gone a long way since 1993. If you look at the last few years, the top prospects list have been very accurate. Here is the list of pitchers who were on the top 10 lists (like Bailey) from 2003-2006.

Francisco Rodriguez,
Scott Kazmir
Cole Hammels
Adam Miller
Felix Hernandez,
Jeff Francis
Chad Billingsley
Francisco Liriano.


7 out of 8 have become major contributors, if not all-stars. Adam Miller has been injured, but is still considered the 10th best prospect going into this year, so it could be 8 for 8.

I would say that barring an injury, Bailey will be a solid major league starter, probably a #1 or 2.

AmarilloRed
02-08-2008, 11:34 PM
The Red Sox may now be interested in Joe Blanton:

Epstein has already laid some groundwork with the Oakland Athletics Billy Beane for a deal involving Joe Blanton, remnants of discussions the clubs had about Dan Haren before Haren was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

(That could have implications for Etobicoke, Ont.'s, Joey Votto. How? The Cincinnati Reds have been talking about Blanton, too, and Votto is a batter who is high on the Athletics list.)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080208.WBbaseball20080208132433/WBStory/WBbaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080208.WBbaseball20080208132433


It will be difficult to make a trade if the Reds get involved in a bidding war with Boston.

Carin4Narron
02-09-2008, 10:41 AM
Isn't it interesting,when the rumors were hot about Blanton, the Reds came out and signed Mercker to a minor league deal? What a response!!!!!!!!! They aren't getting Blanton.

jmac
02-09-2008, 11:06 AM
Isn't it interesting,when the rumors were hot about Blanton, the Reds came out and signed Mercker to a minor league deal? What a response!!!!!!!!! They aren't getting Blanton.

I dont think signing a veteran lefty who didnt pitch last year to a minor league deal is any kind of answer to the need for another starter problem.
Two totally seperate issues.

Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 02:30 PM
Isn't it interesting,when the rumors were hot about Blanton, the Reds came out and signed Mercker to a minor league deal? What a response!!!!!!!!! They aren't getting Blanton.
That really has nothing to do with it. Merker was just a spring training invite.

GoReds33
02-09-2008, 02:35 PM
Joe Blanton would IMO put us over the hump next year. Sure, he's not that ace that we wanted, but he'd give us solid innings, and is a good groundball pitcher. I can see why Krivsky wants this guy. Personally, I think he could end up being as valuable to the Reds as Bedard could have been.

Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 03:00 PM
Joe Blanton would IMO put us over the hump next year. Sure, he's not that ace that we wanted, but he'd give us solid innings, and is a good groundball pitcher. I can see why Krivsky wants this guy. Personally, I think he could end up being as valuable to the Reds as Bedard could have been.

I strongly disagree with this especially the last comment.

Blanton is a innings eater would be a 3 in our rotation but more likely a 4 in a lot of rotations. I dont know if adding a guy who most think he would have to pitch a great year to put up a era under 4.40 is a guy that puts us over the hump. Hes could also could pitch with a 5.00 era. Blanton is solid but for the price being floated and the quality of a guy we are getting in return I just dont think its that great of a pick up. I like the odds that someone in our rotation 3-5 spots end up out pitching him next year anyways.

Bedard was a cy young candidate last year lead the league in strike outs, had a huge K/9 rate and if a lefty. All signs are hes a huge improvement over Blanton.

757690
02-09-2008, 03:02 PM
Joe Blanton would IMO put us over the hump next year. Sure, he's not that ace that we wanted, but he'd give us solid innings, and is a good groundball pitcher. I can see why Krivsky wants this guy. Personally, I think he could end up being as valuable to the Reds as Bedard could have been.

Bedard is a dominant lefty strikeout king, and Blanton is soft tossing righty who gives up a ton of hits and barely strikes anyone out.
Bedard is consistent, pitching well at home, on the road, against lefties, righties, big ballparks, small ballparks...
Blanton only pitches well in big ball parks. His road ERA last year was 5.17 an his career ERA outside of the AL West is 5.71.
Bedard is a solid #1 for nearly any team while Blanton is a #3 or 4 at best for any team that does not play in a big ball park.

I agree that Blanton would help the Reds, but is no where near as helpful as Bedard.

GoReds33
02-09-2008, 03:23 PM
The reason that Blanton could be more valuable than Bedard is that we would have him for a longer period. Bedard becomes a free agent before Blanton does. Also, Bedard gets hurt a lot, while Blanton doesn't. I just said that I think he could be more valuable. You have to factor in that we may only have gotten two years out of Bedard. Also, Blanton is cheaper to have than Bedard. Let's say Bedard gets injured, and misses half the year. That right there would be devistating, while Blanton likely wouldn't miss time, because he's not as proned to injury.

Caveman Techie
02-09-2008, 03:57 PM
Isn't it interesting,when the rumors were hot about Blanton, the Reds came out and signed Mercker to a minor league deal? What a response!!!!!!!!! They aren't getting Blanton.

Poor use of logic there. One does not have anything to do with the other. Mercker is a long-shot to even make the team.

757690
02-09-2008, 04:04 PM
The reason that Blanton could be more valuable than Bedard is that we would have him for a longer period. Bedard becomes a free agent before Blanton does. Also, Bedard gets hurt a lot, while Blanton doesn't. I just said that I think he could be more valuable. You have to factor in that we may only have gotten two years out of Bedard. Also, Blanton is cheaper to have than Bedard. Let's say Bedard gets injured, and misses half the year. That right there would be devistating, while Blanton likely wouldn't miss time, because he's not as proned to injury.

Blanton gives you one extra year. Would you rather have two years of Steve Carlton in his prime or three years of Larry Christenson?

Injuries are always a risk with every pitcher. Blanton is young enough to become injury prone at some point in his career.

Blanton would be cheaper than Bedard in terms of salary, but as my grandfather always says, "you get what you pay for" and "Cheap is cheap."

Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 04:13 PM
Keeping Votto, Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez combined is also cheaper than Blanton :o

kentjett
02-09-2008, 04:56 PM
I don't mind trading minor league players for major league proven players but at a certain price. It would be stupid to trade major league ready top prospects for average MLB players. If Votto and Bailey were a few years away from the Majors then this would be a fair trade but it is safe to say that Votto and Bailey both have the inside track to starting positions. Cueto would make a little more since but I don't think that you'll see any of these guys get traded.

jmac
02-09-2008, 05:55 PM
Blanton gives you one extra year. Would you rather have two years of Steve Carlton in his prime or three years of Larry Christenson?


Blanton is originally from Edmonson county in KY so there is an excellent chance he would be with reds longer than current contract.

757690
02-09-2008, 09:37 PM
On the ORG, there are two posts that need to be replied to, but since I am a peon, I can only reply to them here.

This is from DougDirt.

"Just throwing this out there.... but the AL West is full of non HR parks that tend to lean toward pitching.

Code:
Joe Blanton for his career

Split IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP K/BB
Non AL West 405 4.33 9.51 0.82 2.58 5.31 1.34 2.06
AL West 228.67 3.70 9.32 0.79 2.01 5.12 1.26 2.55"

The that includes him pitching in Oakland in both categories. The best way to break this down is how he does in AL West parks Vs. all other parks.

He has a 5.71 career ERA outside of the AL West. That is very scary. Does not translate well for him in GABP.

This is from RedLegSuperStar:

"Joe Blanton Vs. NL opponents (If someone could code this I'd appreciate it):

I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP
+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+
Inter-League 12 12 0 6 3 0 0 0 78.1 2.99 75 30 26 4 21 1 48 2

Joe Blanton Career Splits: Inter-League

I Year G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP Year
+-+-------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+----+
2005 5 5 0 3 1 0 0 0 33.1 2.43 27 12 9 2 11 0 20 1
2006 4 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 22 5.32 28 14 13 2 8 1 14 1
2007 3 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 23 1.57 20 4 4 0 2 0 14 0"

He does do well against NL teams, but half (6) of those have been in Oakland. He has a 4.11 ERA against NL teams in NL stadiums and four of those were in big ballparks, SD, SF and Wash.

IMO, everything points to Blanton having a 4.50 or higher ERA if he were to play for the Reds next year.

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 12:56 AM
Age VORP xFIP ERA+ DER
Blanton 26 46.3 4.13 106 0.701

AmarilloRed
02-10-2008, 01:02 AM
Let's not forget they have the DH in the American League. That would counter-balance any rise in his ERA we might expect to see by playing in GABP.

757690
02-10-2008, 01:16 AM
Let's not forget they have the DH in the American League. That would counter-balance any rise in his ERA we might expect to see by playing in GABP.

Good point. It does lower it a bit, but still in a very small sample size, six games, his ERA in games without a DH is 4.11, and most of those were in big ballparks.

Who knows how he will do, but I think basically, at best, you are looking at acquiring another Bronson, which is not a bad thing, just not worth a top prospect like Votto and definitely not a Bailey or Cueto.

One other thing, comments on Fay's blog have hinted that the deal will be Bailey and Votto for Blanton and Dan Johnson. I really hope that is not the case. Johnson is a downgrade from Votto, and would only be helpful if he hit RH.

redsfanmia
02-10-2008, 11:57 AM
This trade rumor reeks of Jocketty and is the main reason I was not happy when he came aboard. Look at the deals he made when he was with the Cardinals IE Dan Haren+ for a broken down Mulder. If they trade both Homer Bailey and Joe Votto for a 3 or 4 starter at best they are killing their future to finish second this season. Homer is a big time prospect he will come close to producing what Blanton can this season for 1/100 of the salary.

Bip Roberts
02-10-2008, 12:04 PM
I like our chances that one of our young pitchers put up a better season or similar season than what most feel Blanton would do in our park.

Bip Roberts
02-10-2008, 12:08 PM
The Denver Post reports that the Athletics want Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche and a prospect from the Dodgers in exchange for Joe Blanton.
Billy Beane is really working the "best available arm" angle to drive up Blanton's price, but it's doubtful the Dodgers would give up both Ethier and LaRoche for him.

Billy Beane wants more for Blanton than any other pitcher this offseason apparently.

MotownRed
02-10-2008, 12:32 PM
Why not Belisle and Votto plus a minor leaguer?

kbrake
02-10-2008, 12:40 PM
It seems like Beane is just set on driving up the cost as much as he can so I say fine let him hold onto Blanton. If the Reds were going to overpay for someone this offseason it should have been Bedard, not Blanton. I am fine with the way the offseason has gone though, even if we struggle this year at least we will be able to watch some real talent develop in front of us. Beats losing with old washed up veterans.

Caveman Techie
02-10-2008, 01:07 PM
, even if we struggle this year at least we will be able to watch some real talent develop in front of us. Beats losing with old washed up veterans.


Absolutely, this is the first time in my life the Red's have actually been stocked in the farm system with legitimate pitching prospects. I'm more than happy to see what they can do.

:beerme:

TheBigLebowski
02-10-2008, 01:08 PM
The fact that Beane's asking for LaRoche, Ethier, PLUS a prospect should have every Redszoner screaming for WK to stay away. What a colossal failure that'd be.

If we acquire Blanton, we'll likely have to pay the same price we were unwilling to pay for Bedard or Haren (except there is no mention of Bruce).

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 02:41 PM
From a prospect expert who reports for scout.com:

"Bedard to the Mariners was just finalized. If he is worth Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, George Sherrill and Kam Mickolio, Blanton is worth two of the Cueto, Bailey, Votto trio. Most of what Blanton gives up to Bedard in stuff and K rate he makes up in age, durability and command.

I know Reds fans won't like hearing it, but Beane's asking price looks pretty reasonable"

757690
02-10-2008, 02:47 PM
This trade rumor reeks of Jocketty and is the main reason I was not happy when he came aboard. Look at the deals he made when he was with the Cardinals IE Dan Haren+ for a broken down Mulder. If they trade both Homer Bailey and Joe Votto for a 3 or 4 starter at best they are killing their future to finish second this season. Homer is a big time prospect he will come close to producing what Blanton can this season for 1/100 of the salary.


While i agree with the second part, the first part is just not accurate.

The Mulder trade was the only trade in Jocketty's 14 year career that I can think of in which he traded away top prospects. His M.O. is to trade a combination of role players and second level prospects for undervalued talent or salary dumps.

Besides the Mulder trade, the only two players that I can think of that Jocketty traded away that became everyday players are Adam Kennedy and Placido Polanco, and he got Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolan for them.

757690
02-10-2008, 02:57 PM
From a prospect expert who reports for scout.com:

"Bedard to the Mariners was just finalized. If he is worth Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, George Sherrill and Kam Mickolio, Blanton is worth two of the Cueto, Bailey, Votto trio. Most of what Blanton gives up to Bedard in stuff and K rate he makes up in age, durability and command.

I know Reds fans won't like hearing it, but Beane's asking price looks pretty reasonable"

Thanks for the quote.

Who is this guy? I just want to know so that I make sure to never read anything he writes.
That is pure poppycock. Blanton is a #3 or 4 at best outside of Oakland or big ballparks, and Bedard is a perennial CY Young candidate.
It is like saying Mike Morgan is as valuable as Jose Rijo. what a joke.

Beane's asking price is not reasonable and he knows it. This is the first person I have heard who says that it is reasonable. He is playing on other teams desperation for not acquiring Santana, Bedard or Haren.

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 04:02 PM
double

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 04:06 PM
Thanks for the quote.

Who is this guy? I just want to know so that I make sure to never read anything he writes.
That is pure poppycock. Blanton is a #3 or 4 at best outside of Oakland or big ballparks, and Bedard is a perennial CY Young candidate.
It is like saying Mike Morgan is as valuable as Jose Rijo. what a joke.

Beane's asking price is not reasonable and he knows it. This is the first person I have heard who says that it is reasonable. He is playing on other teams desperation for not acquiring Santana, Bedard or Haren.

I asked him to comment on the potential trade, and he responded in a private message. It would be unfair of me to reveal his name without his permission.

Bip Roberts
02-10-2008, 04:06 PM
From a prospect expert who reports for scout.com:

"Bedard to the Mariners was just finalized. If he is worth Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, George Sherrill and Kam Mickolio, Blanton is worth two of the Cueto, Bailey, Votto trio. Most of what Blanton gives up to Bedard in stuff and K rate he makes up in age, durability and command.

I know Reds fans won't like hearing it, but Beane's asking price looks pretty reasonable"

That guy is out of his mind nuts. If thats true we should go on a firesale. Arroyo, Harang, heck even Matt Belisle should net us like 5 top 25 prospects and a few top 50s

redsfanmia
02-10-2008, 04:24 PM
While i agree with the second part, the first part is just not accurate.

The Mulder trade was the only trade in Jocketty's 14 year career that I can think of in which he traded away top prospects. His M.O. is to trade a combination of role players and second level prospects for undervalued talent or salary dumps.

Besides the Mulder trade, the only two players that I can think of that Jocketty traded away that became everyday players are Adam Kennedy and Placido Polanco, and he got Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolan for them.

Yeah your right I didnt do any research just went from memory. How many guys did they have reach the majors during his tenure that were everyday productive players or average pitchers? I honestly dont know of many. I just think that Jocketty is vastly overrated as a GM.

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 04:50 PM
All of the below statistics try to summarize a pitchers performance (just like ERA) but in a way that reflects on a pitchers individual ability/skill level.

VORP is league and ballpark neutralized. (nobody gets a boost for playing in a better ballpark) This stat puts into context the value of a durable/healthy pitcher who puts up above average numbers for many innings. (Harang & Blanton are both VORP stars in 2007, Arroyo was a VORP star in 2006)

xFIP is defense independent and normalizes home run rate under the assumption that pitchers only have control over GB/FB rate, not HR rate. (it eliminates any "boost" a pitcher might get from pitching in front of a good defense)

ERA+ puts into context how much better than average (if 100 was average) a pitcher is. This metric is also adjusted for park factors.

Age is very important. A pitcher who is 26 is just entering his peak years (age: 27-28) before the window the average players skills began to decline (age: 29-retire)

Contract is also very important. Blanton will make $3.8 million in 2008 and is expected to make another $15 million or so in the final 2 years of arbitration. Blanton would come at below market rate for the final 3 years he's under Reds control. Freeing up budget and resources that can be more efficiently spent in other areas of the franchise.

Here's some important numbers to look at from last season:

Player | Age | xFIP | VORP |ERA+ |Contract
Harang | 29 | 3.81 | 53.8 | 125 | 4/$36
Arroyo | 30 | 4.76 | 30.7 | 110 | 3/$29
Blanton | 26 | 4.13 | 46.3 | 106 | 3/$18

Given the combination of age, and production, a good argument can be made that going forward Blanton is a good bet to out produce Arroyo and be the Reds #2 SP. When you add their contracts to the equation, Blanton clearly becomes an even more valuable piece to the Reds franchise.

Also, i don't know if you guys heard of the injury nexus or not. BP and other progressive statistical websites have done studies using the entire data pool of major league baseball. These studies showed a very high flame out rate for major league pitching prospects.

Pitching is a very unnatural motion on the human body and arm. Regardless of how much talent a player has, getting past the injury nexus, and being able to take the mound every 5th day; for 180+ innings a season, is a massive skill in its own right. This is a barrier all pitching prospects have to overcome at a young age.

Cueto, Bailey, (add any big name pitching prospect here) comes with a large risk that they never get past that injury nexus.

Many teams (depending on the direction of the organization) are willing to cash in on their potential (their prospects) to eliminate risk associated with babying/growing those prospects. (Blanton/A's provide that market)

Votto, Cueto, Bailey are all very talented prospects, but risk needs to be considered into the equation.

The A's want upside at the expense of risk (given the direction of the organization: rebuild)

The Reds might be looking to take advantage of one last season of Griffey & Dunn and try to make a run at the NL Central while there's limited competition in the division this season. Blanton provides the Reds a more certain opportunity of competing.

757690
02-10-2008, 05:58 PM
All of the below statistics try to summarize a pitchers performance (just like ERA) but in a way that reflects on a pitchers individual ability/skill level.

VORP is league and ballpark neutralized. (nobody gets a boost for playing in a better ballpark) This stat puts into context the value of a durable/healthy pitcher who puts up above average numbers for many innings. (Harang & Blanton are both VORP stars in 2007, Arroyo was a VORP star in 2006)

xFIP is defense independent and normalizes home run rate under the assumption that pitchers only have control over GB/FB rate, not HR rate. (it eliminates any "boost" a pitcher might get from pitching in front of a good defense)

ERA+ puts into context how much better than average (if 100 was average) a pitcher is. This metric is also adjusted for park factors.

Age is very important. A pitcher who is 26 is just entering his peak years (age: 27-28) before the window the average players skills began to decline (age: 29-retire)

Contract is also very important. Blanton will make $3.8 million in 2008 and is expected to make another $15 million or so in the final 2 years of arbitration. Blanton would come at below market rate for the final 3 years he's under Reds control. Freeing up budget and resources that can be more efficiently spent in other areas of the franchise.

Here's some important numbers to look at from last season:

Player | Age | xFIP | VORP |ERA+ |Contract
Harang | 29 | 3.81 | 53.8 | 125 | 4/$36
Arroyo | 30 | 4.76 | 30.7 | 110 | 3/$29
Blanton | 26 | 4.13 | 46.3 | 106 | 3/$18

Given the combination of age, and production, a good argument can be made that going forward Blanton is a good bet to out produce Arroyo and be the Reds #2 SP. When you add their contracts to the equation, Blanton clearly becomes an even more valuable piece to the Reds franchise.

Also, i don't know if you guys heard of the injury nexus or not. BP and other progressive statistical websites have done studies using the entire data pool of major league baseball. These studies showed a very high flame out rate for major league pitching prospects.

Pitching is a very unnatural motion on the human body and arm. Regardless of how much talent a player has, getting past the injury nexus, and being able to take the mound every 5th day; for 180+ innings a season, is a massive skill in its own right. This is a barrier all pitching prospects have to overcome at a young age.

Cueto, Bailey, (add any big name pitching prospect here) comes with a large risk that they never get past that injury nexus.

Many teams (depending on the direction of the organization) are willing to cash in on their potential (their prospects) to eliminate risk associated with babying/growing those prospects. (Blanton/A's provide that market)

Votto, Cueto, Bailey are all very talented prospects, but risk needs to be considered into the equation.

The A's want upside at the expense of risk (given the direction of the organization: rebuild)

The Reds might be looking to take advantage of one last season of Griffey & Dunn and try to make a run at the NL Central while there's limited competition in the division this season. Blanton provides the Reds a more certain opportunity of competing.

First concerning injury nexus. Bailey and Cueto are injury risks, but they are at the very end of that nexus. They seem to be ready to pitch everyday in 2008, so it is very low risk compared to other prospects.

Second, VORP and xFIP are highly controversial stats. Just spend a month on this or any baseball discussion site and you will see how opinions differ on them.
Even fans of Sabrmetrics argue all day about how to best calculate sabr stats like xFIP and VORP.

For instance, you say that VORP is park neutral, but just go to page 26-27 of the ORG's thread on Blanton and you will see there are many ways to figure out park factors.

But more importantly, VORP, park factors and xFIP are not universally accepted, and for good reason. They are very new stats, that have not been tested over time to see how accurate or effective they are. Also the methodology for calculating them has not been vetted.

With VORP, there is a problem with deciding what an average replacement level player is. With park factors, it does not factor in that some teams just have more talented pitching staffs, or that some teams have pitching staffs that are able to adjust to their home stadiums better than others.

XFIP is perhaps the most controversial and one I trust the least. First, the formula appears very random, and I have yet had anyone explain to me why it uses the numbers it does. Why are homers multiplied by 13 and walks by 3? I would love it if someone would tell me. If you changed the 13 to 10 and the 3 to 4, you would come up with completely different numbers.
But more importantly, xFIP has not proven to be very accurate in projecting pitching stats. It hasn't been around long enough to draw any conclusions, but I checked to see how it did with the top 50 pitchers in innings pitched from 2005. xFIP was accurate within .50 ERA around 40% of the time. That is just terrible for a predicting stat. A predicting stat that is accurate less than 50% of the time, is just guessing.

This post has provided a reader with many stats concerning Blanton and how he might perform in GABP. Who knows how he will do, but the key stats all point to him having at least a 4.25 ERA and more likely closer to a 5.00 ERA. His innings are valuable, and he would improve the team, but he just is not worth any top prospects.

And Bip makes a great point, that if Blanton is worth what Beane is asking, it makes sense to trade Harang and Arroyo. Arroyo might not get as much, but Harang should get much more than Blanton. The Reds could fill their system with 7-10 great young players for those two, which when added to Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Votto et all, would have them dominate in 2010 and beyond.

757690
02-10-2008, 06:42 PM
Here is a perfect example of the controversy surrounding SABR stats (especially FIP and xFIP). Most of them are based on Voros McCracken article that said that BABIP was mostly due to luck.
After examining the methodology used, Tom Tippet discovered that McCracken was inaccurate at best, and just dead wrong at worst. Here is the article.

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 07:36 PM
I don't have the time to educate you about progressive baseball statistics. There's so many holes in your argument I wouldn't even know where to began.

You're simply speaking on things you don't have a fundamental knowledge of. I'd challenge you to check out tango's sabermetric wiki: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki, then come back and argue these points with me if you find an opportunity to do so.

757690
02-10-2008, 09:47 PM
I don't have the time to educate you about progressive baseball statistics. There's so many holes in your argument I wouldn't even know where to began.

You're simply speaking on things you don't have a fundamental knowledge of. I'd challenge you to check out tango's sabermetric wiki: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki, then come back and argue these points with me if you find an opportunity to do so.

First you must know that I am very pro progressive stats. I love Bill James. But he made a very important point when he started doing this in the 80's. He said that we are the very beginning of understanding stats, and that the process will evolve as we learn more, and investigate more. James has changed his mind many times as new data comes in and as he gains a better understanding of methodology and how stats work.
My objection to stats like xFIP and park factors, is that they are so new that we should not accept them as the best method without testing them first, and seriously examining their methodology. I am not saying that they are faulty, just that they should not be accepted as gospel.

Second, went to the site and learned nothing I didn't already know. I have read tons about this, I am not a novice to progressive stats.

Since I am so ignorant, please educate me. You can do this one point at a time.
Please point out the most egregious error that I made or the three most or whatever you have time for and I will gladly look it over and respond. thank you

757690
02-10-2008, 09:53 PM
I don't have the time to educate you about progressive baseball statistics. There's so many holes in your argument I wouldn't even know where to began.

You're simply speaking on things you don't have a fundamental knowledge of. I'd challenge you to check out tango's sabermetric wiki: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki, then come back and argue these points with me if you find an opportunity to do so.

Went to the site again, and noticed that he does not have a post for FIP or xFIP. This is from the guy who created it. If he does have something on it, please point it out to me, I would love to read it.

He does have a post on BABIP and he says the same thing I said, that the idea that BABIP is due to luck is a myth.

Still haven't found anything on that site that contradicts what I said in my post.

AmarilloRed
02-10-2008, 11:07 PM
I don't have the time to educate you about progressive baseball statistics. There's so many holes in your argument I wouldn't even know where to began.

You're simply speaking on things you don't have a fundamental knowledge of. I'd challenge you to check out tango's sabermetric wiki: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki, then come back and argue these points with me if you find an opportunity to do so.

We have many members in both forums who are fans of using advanced baseball statistics to prove a point, and there are other members such as myself who are more inclined to use older statistics such as IP and ERA. A good member should show appreciation for both types of statistics.

Bip Roberts
02-10-2008, 11:11 PM
I count wins!

idriveabucket
02-10-2008, 11:28 PM
There's many different ways to enjoy the game of baseball.

I only had an issue with the way Blanton is being perceived here. The combination of his age, contract, & production level make him one of the more valuable commodities in the league.

I'm a big fan of his, and would be very excited if the Reds acquired him.

mlbfan30
02-11-2008, 01:47 AM
Went to the site again, and noticed that he does not have a post for FIP or xFIP. This is from the guy who created it. If he does have something on it, please point it out to me, I would love to read it.

He does have a post on BABIP and he says the same thing I said, that the idea that BABIP is due to luck is a myth.

Still haven't found anything on that site that contradicts what I said in my post.

I use BABIP sometimes for guys like Hopper(.369) and Ross (.228) to show why they should get worse or improve. .300 is just roughly an average to the mean, but players can sustain high or low BABIPs. Jeter has a career .364 BABIP, while Andruw Jones is .283.

All it does is give an idea for future predictions. A BABIP above .400 won't be sustained for long, so that person should do worse eventually. Some players have a skill to keep high BABIPs, but its the type of hitter they are. All these stats do, and many others is help predict future performance.

As for xFIP, I believe that these "random" coefficients are assigned to fit the model into an eqaution.

Linear Weights is a very nice stat that rarely gets looked at, but it might be the best stat out there. It uses modelling based on each season to figure out how much each 1B/HR/BB/Out/K/etc is worth in terms of runs.

The Newer Fielding Data like Dan Fox's SFR might become the best fielding data out there in terms of practicality. He's using play by play data that goes back to the 60s. His system (alone with Chone Smith) is revolutionary in terms of fielding metrics. He could eventually include every aspect of fielding from a simply play by play sheet.

The days a Fielding Percentage and Errors having any meaning should almost be over. Fielding data is getting better almost everyday. At the point where all systems give roughly equal ranking is when you could 100% trust them (even though you should now). And these systems are very different in how they get their numbers.

Just because its new doesnt mean it's bad or unproven. Especially when you model an equation to fit the system. Those are really the most accurate ways to figure out the worth of a player. Tango's work is mostly dealing with finding out what a players worth is, and it's very good.

757690
02-11-2008, 02:04 AM
I use BABIP sometimes for guys like Hopper(.369) and Ross (.228) to show why they should get worse or improve. .300 is just roughly an average to the mean, but players can sustain high or low BABIPs. Jeter has a career .364 BABIP, while Andruw Jones is .283.

All it does is give an idea for future predictions. A BABIP above .400 won't be sustained for long, so that person should do worse eventually. Some players have a skill to keep high BABIPs, but its the type of hitter they are. All these stats do, and many others is help predict future performance.

As for xFIP, I believe that these "random" coefficients are assigned to fit the model into an eqaution.

Linear Weights is a very nice stat that rarely gets looked at, but it might be the best stat out there. It uses modelling based on each season to figure out how much each 1B/HR/BB/Out/K/etc is worth in terms of runs.

The Newer Fielding Data like Dan Fox's SFR might become the best fielding data out there in terms of practicality. He's using play by play data that goes back to the 60s. His system (alone with Chone Smith) is revolutionary in terms of fielding metrics. He could eventually include every aspect of fielding from a simply play by play sheet.

The days a Fielding Percentage and Errors having any meaning should almost be over. Fielding data is getting better almost everyday. At the point where all systems give roughly equal ranking is when you could 100% trust them (even though you should now). And these systems are very different in how they get their numbers.

Just because its new doesnt mean it's bad or unproven. Especially when you model an equation to fit the system. Those are really the most accurate ways to figure out the worth of a player. Tango's work is mostly dealing with finding out what a players worth is, and it's very good.


Thanks, I appreciate the info. All very helpful. I agree with pretty much everything you said. I will look into linear weights and SFR, they seem intriguing. And btw, I like Tango's work too, he is very good at what he does and very honest about it.

757690
02-11-2008, 02:08 AM
I count wins!

Don't you know that stat is outdated and meaningless? On base percentage is much more important! :D

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:16 AM
Don't you know that stat is outdated and meaningless? On base percentage is much more important! :D

I really dont count wins :(

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 02:24 AM
I think we all understood your sarcasm when you initially claimed too. ;)

7,
As far as our discussion about the injury nexus, Cueto and Bailey are 21, & 22 respectively. Any pitcher--up until the age of 24--is considered to be in the "injury nexus".

If a pitcher proves he can sustain added workload past that age, the propensity for injury drops dramatically. Until then, there's a high risk of injury involved.

maniem
02-11-2008, 02:28 AM
Oakland just signed Mike Sweeney to a minor league deal, which adds yet another bat to their DH/1B depth chart along with Barton, Cust, etc. I would think that this lessens the chance that they'd still want Votto in a potential trade for Blanton. Beane will probably focus on either Bailey/Cueto or both now. Question is, should the Reds still be interested?

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:37 AM
Maybe some nutty deal goes down.

The less likely this deal is to happen the happier I am for sure though.

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 02:40 AM
You don't want a bona fide #2/#3 pitcher and a chance to compete while Griffey and Dunn are signed for one last season?

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:41 AM
According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Red Sox are among the teams interested in Joe Blanton.
The Dodgers and Reds have also been linked to Blanton, but the A's demands are said to be extremely high and a midseason deal might be more likely. The A's are also reportedly shopping Alan Embree, who could be of interest to contending teams as a situational left-hander.

Newest update Ive seen. I dont know if I really believe boston is interested all that much though.

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 02:42 AM
I think its a typo at Rotoworld. If you click the source link, Rosenthal says the exact opposite:

Here's Rosenthal's statement:

* Add the Red Sox to the list of teams not pursuing Blanton. The A's remain in listening mode, but are being more aggressive trying to send left-handed reliever Alan Embree to a contender.

* If the A's don't get the deal they want for Blanton, they could always move him before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, when the demand likely will be higher.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:44 AM
You don't want a bona fide #2/#3 pitcher and a chance to compete while Griffey and Dunn are signed for one last season?

Not for the asking price being floated, but I also dont view Blanton as a #2.

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 02:50 AM
Wouldn't #2 be relative to the quality of pitchers on the rotation in context?

I think going forward (given their age) Blanton is a better bet to match previous season production levels.

Harang is clearly #1, I think its a toss up who would be #2 if Blanton is acquired.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:58 AM
Im just not as high on him as some others. I think he would have to really surprise my expectations to end up being this teams 2. To me its just more likely he is a 3. I cant see him putting a ERA up over 4.40.

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 03:06 AM
Thats what makes this game so fun. There's so many varying viewpoints, and it turns into an endless discussion. At the end of the day we both want the same thing: our team to do well.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 03:08 AM
Thats what makes this game so fun. There's so many varying viewpoints, and it turns into an endless discussion. At the end of the day we both want the same thing: our team to do well.

Yea I respect everyones opinion, in most cases, and in the end I hope the people making decisions are smarter than me.

Which should be the case almost 100% of the time. :laugh:

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:00 PM
Bring Joe Blanton to town and the Reds have to be in any conversation about being the favorite to win the division. No, I don't want to give up the farm....but, remember, the A's can't keep him. If he pitches next year like this year, he could make 10 million a season.

He eats innings. He's a horse. He gives the Reds '3' starters who could all top 200 innings, which is the best friend of any bullpen.

Get Blanton and someone moves to the bullpen to help the bullpen even more.



Alan Cutler has sold me

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 02:10 PM
Olney doesn't believe Billy Beane would demand MLB-ready talent.

Now that I would accept unless they are thinking Cueto isnt MLB ready talent.

mlbfan30
02-11-2008, 04:59 PM
but, remember, the A's can't keep him. If he pitches next year like this year, he could make 10 million a season.


He's not going to make 10M. He's arbitration eligible for 3 more years. He might make 10M in the last year, but even then it's not reasonable. Usually only the top tier, MVP type players make 10M+ in arbitration.

Also what does he mean the A's can't keep him? He's cheap and in their control for 3 years. Cutler has no idea what he's talking about

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 05:00 PM
but, remember, the A's can't keep him. If he pitches next year like this year, he could make 10 million a season.


He's not going to make 10M. He's arbitration eligible for 3 more years. He might make 10M in the last year, but even then it's not reasonable. Usually only the top tier, MVP type players make 10M+ in arbitration.

Also what does he mean the A's can't keep him? He's cheap and in their control for 3 years. Cutler has no idea what he's talking about
He never does

idriveabucket
02-11-2008, 05:07 PM
If Blanton continues to produce at his current level, he's likely to make $15 million altogether in his final 2 seasons of arbitration. (2/$15) after '08. In comparison, Silva just signed a 4/$44 for his age 29-32 seasons and Blanton has been the better pitcher over the last 3 seasons.

757690
02-11-2008, 05:26 PM
I really dont count wins :(

To be clear, I thought you were referring to team wins, which is why I was being sarcastic.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 05:29 PM
To be clear, I thought you were referring to team wins, which is why I was being sarcastic.

Oh no I meant win loss records of a pitcher

AmarilloRed
02-11-2008, 05:39 PM
The days a Fielding Percentage and Errors having any meaning should almost be over. Fielding data is getting better almost everyday. At the point where all systems give roughly equal ranking is when you could 100% trust them (even though you should now). And these systems are very different in how they get their numbers.

I am one of those who still believes heavily in using errors and fielding percentage to evaluate a player's defense. The new defensive statistics may have merit, but I am not sure they are necessarily better than the old statistics.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 05:41 PM
Errors and Fielding Percentage can be skewed because a player with more range can get to more balls.

tangotiger
02-12-2008, 04:12 PM
I just came across this thread. If there's something that I can contribute toward, please provide a summary description of the issue, and I'll do my best to respond

Stephenk29
02-12-2008, 04:25 PM
basically, what do you think about trading for Blanton, and for who

tangotiger
02-12-2008, 05:16 PM
From 2008-2010, he'll cost you about 20MM to 25MM in salary, whereas a free agent pitcher of that quality would cost you double that. So, that's how much surplus value he gives you. That's similar to Bedard. Mariners definitely overpaid with Adam Jones, nevermind the other players they also "threw" in.

What were the Reds thinking of giving up?

idriveabucket
02-12-2008, 05:40 PM
Blanton is signed for $3.8MM this season.

You think his arbitration cost will inflate to over 20 million in his final 2 seasons? I don't disagree, just wanted your input.

This is brockforbroglio btw. As you already know, I'm a big fan of your work and research. Thanks for adding to the conversation.

tangotiger
02-13-2008, 12:37 PM
He should get at least 16MM (7MM and 9MM in his next two years).

757690
02-13-2008, 05:15 PM
From 2008-2010, he'll cost you about 20MM to 25MM in salary, whereas a free agent pitcher of that quality would cost you double that. So, that's how much surplus value he gives you. That's similar to Bedard. Mariners definitely overpaid with Adam Jones, nevermind the other players they also "threw" in.

What were the Reds thinking of giving up?

Obviously, no one knows for sure, but the reports were that the Orioles wanted Bruce and when the Reds said no, that ended the discussion.

The main rumor floated out there was Bailey or Cueto, Votto, plus two lower level prospects. The only report I saw on what the Reds counter-offered, was Votto, plus a bunch of lower level prospects. I never heard that the Reds offered Bailey or Cueto.

BTW, big fan, keep up the great work.

arly2380
02-15-2008, 07:17 PM
i'm reading on the other board that Maloney should be traded. i dont think A's need another lefty. they have dallas braden/dan meyer. traded for gio gonzalez/dana eveland/greg smith. all are in AAA/mlb ready. A's are overloaded in lefties at the moment, so i dont think maloney fits

ugh this is getting old, basically every other columnists repeat what we've already heard..not really an update at all

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/02/15/heyman.offgrades/1.html
Reds may lead for Blanton

The Reds appear to be the favorite right now to land righty starter Joe Blanton from the A's. Reds GM Wayne Krivsky has been trying hard to land a third solid rotation member and has some very good pieces with which to tempt the A's. The Dodgers have never shown any sort of willingness to deal prospects, and while the Yankees have checked in, they have also become reticent to trade their bona fide prospects. The Red Sox must be serious about their own youth movement, because apparently they have shown surprisingly little interest in Blanton so far.

Oakland GM Billy Beane isn't afraid to make a trade, and he's very reasonable in his requests. He didn't waste his breath insisting Justin Upton or his ilk from the D-backs in the Dan Haren deal, and he won't insist on outfielder Jay Bruce, perhaps baseball's best positional prospect, from Cincinnati. Even so, the Reds have the type of talent to do a deal. Pitchers Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Maloney and Edinson Volquez should give them and the A's something to discuss.

fewfirstchoice
02-15-2008, 08:30 PM
Hopefully they can get something worked out that doesnt invlove Bruce.Which I dont think WK has thought about dealing Bruce any this odd season he is just to important to trade away.But if Blanton can be had for one of Bailey, Cueto, Votto, or Volquez with Maloney or Stubbs being the second I would be all for it.I believe all this quite time is a sign that they are most defently talking about a deal very seriously.

Stephenk29
02-16-2008, 01:48 AM
I can't see Blanton moving now. Might as well wait till the trade deadline