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View Full Version : Reds break out players and biggest bust of 08



Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 12:40 AM
I figured since they are doing it in the ORG we can do it down here. Who are you reds players to break out this year or flat out have monster years and which ones do you think decline or regress from performance last year. I guess naming 3 would probably just make it easiest for everyone. List your reasons why for each player if you feel like it

My 3 improved players for 08:
Edwin Encarnacion - Hes been on the brink for a few years now, terrible start to last season with a very solid finish. I think Baker could make the guy feel a lot more comfortable in his role on the team as long as he starts off solid. Guy could be a big time player for this team in much need of a right handed stud bat.

Edinson Volquez - Hes put in the time in the minors to improve his pitches, been up and down and up and down again and seemed to put together some really solid starts towards the end of the season last year after posting ridiculously high K rates and low walk rates in AAA. Think we could be looking at a ERA around 4 at the end of the season. Guys with arms like him dont come along often. 97 MPH heater and a change he can cut almost 20 mph off of is deadly.

Bill Bray - Guy cant stay injured for ever can he? Already off to a bad start with his appendectomy but he should be back throwing soon if he already hasnt started. Very solid stuff from this kid with a very quirky delivery that I honestly think that will cause a lot of problems for batters to pick up the spin of his pitches. Guy has a filthy K/9 rate in the minors and a pretty solid one when up in the majors. I look for him to have a healthy season and finally show us the type of pitcher he should become.

My Bust for 08:

David Weathers - Guy had a great season last year closing for us but I think the switch to 8th or 7th inning is going to hurt him due to the pressure of the last at bat for the hitter isnt going to be there so much. Hes getting older and unless hes getting the Mike Stanton circa New York era treatment he has to slow down at some point. Lazy reasoning for me but not unfair to say.

Todd Coffey - Supposedly has worked really hard on his weight all offseason fixed his mechanics with his high school pitching coach since Dick Pole is worthless, but still I dont think he puts it together. I think his problem is going to be mental mistakes and I think hes beyond repair in that category. I think he is almost up there trying too hard at times. Part of me is pulling for him but I just dont see it happening until he gets to another team with a fresh start. I can see him getting moved also.

Adam Dunn - This is not so much of a bust for him because I think he will put up solid numbers but I think he got a lot of our hopes up with his strong finish to last year. His knee surgery scares me kinda as well. I think the contract year will be quite interesting for him. I dont know him personally and never talked to him but ive always got a vibe that winning isnt the biggest thing for him. While I still say he puts numbers similar to his career averages I expect a little drop off with maybe even some missed games due to injuries. Hes a big guy and he needs handle it before he ends up getting busted up way earlier than he should.

I'm adding another category to the thread as well before I finish my post.

The guys who could go either way in 08 quick hit style

Ryan Freel - Does he come back from his knee and post his .360 obp?

Jared Burton - Does the 2nd time through the league hurt him?

Joey Votto - Was his LH problems in the minors his eye sight or is is really a problem for him that we should be worried about.

gedred69
02-09-2008, 01:16 AM
It isn't often I agree with your posts, but I do as far as Coffey goes, for one. He should be a lights out closer, but his mind is broken. I hope it heals, but...... I also have at least a feeling that EE has so much talent waiting to explode, I just hope he isn't another Danny Driessen. (You're probably too young to remember the dynamics of that). Bray is a guy who the Reds Med Staff totally mis-diagnosed the injury of in ST, thus eliminating him from being able to help the BP last year. What a shame, he has shown signs of quality. I think Votto just needs to play. He will boom or flounder against LH'ers. I hope, ---and think,--- Burton is for real. If Freel shows well in ST, there are teams that will want him, if so he gets traded. I hope you are right on Volquez, and I'm sure WK does too.

Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 02:00 AM
Who would you list as your surprising and disappointing guys?

Oh and its a message board, if everyone agreed then it would pretty much defeat the purpose of it :)

ChatterRed
02-09-2008, 07:52 AM
The guys who could go either way in 08 quick hit style

Ryan Freel - Does he come back from his knee and post his .360 obp?

Jared Burton - Does the 2nd time through the league hurt him?

Joey Votto - Was his LH problems in the minors his eye sight or is is really a problem for him that we should be worried about.


Not to be mean or insulting, but I think every player could go either way. It's up to them.

UPRedsFan
02-09-2008, 11:34 AM
Breakout:

Belisle: He has the talent just needs the consistency. A year of 30 starts under his belt should help him. He should be a legitimate #3 with an ERA in the 4.5 range

Volquez: I agree. He'll make everyone forget about Hamilton. He's ready and showed signs last year.

Bray: All he needs is to be healthy. This is his year

Bust:
Encarnacion: Not really a bust, but I think we've seen his best. It's a bust in terms of everyone waiting for him to break out. He's destined to be a .280/.360/.470 type player. A good player, but not an all star. Count on him for 15 or 16 homeruns and 80 - 90 RBI.

Bruce: I just don't think he's ready to handle ML pitching at so young an age. I know Griffey did it that young, but is he really another Griffey? I guess we'll find out.

Affeldt: I doubt he'll be the starter the Reds are hoping for. He should be kept in the pen where he had success. Can he really learn a change up this late in the game?

Could go either way:

Votto - Was Sept a good indication of what he can do up here?
Bailey - is he ready or not? There were signs last year late in the season.
Griffey - if he's healthy a monster year in his last as a Red, or has old age caught up with him?

Bip Roberts
02-09-2008, 01:27 PM
Not to be mean or insulting, but I think every player could go either way. It's up to them.

Yea but I could make a case for those 3 pretty solidly either way. I think those 3 could have very surprising seasons and also could have very disappointing ones. I dont see them having middle of the road years. The 3 guys I listed felt close to being on either list.

Id have a hard time making a case for both sides for guys like Cordero, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and other guys.

GoReds33
02-09-2008, 01:30 PM
Yea but I could make a case for those 3 pretty solidly either way. I think those 3 could have very surprising seasons and also could have very disappointing ones. I dont see them having middle of the road years. The 3 guys I listed felt close to being on either list.

Id have a hard time making a case for both sides for guys like Cordero, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and other guys.I like how you did that. I agree that those three could be on either of the first two lists.

captainmorgan07
02-09-2008, 06:05 PM
Breakout years
1.Homer Bailey He'll put it all together and become the third starter we need behind Harang and Bronson. He'll work on his changeup during spring training and really have it working well by the all star break. He needs to be consistent with his mechanics keep his legs healthy.

2.Gary Majewski Majewski finally returns to the form he had when we traded for him. His arm should be fully recovered from the surgery 2 years ago. He will get the sinker working and being to throw more ground balls.

3.Jay Bruce Jay Bruce will burst onto the scene and win the Rookie of the year award unanimously. He will hit around .285 and play solid defense in CF. He might not make the start on opening day but his play will force Dusty to put him in the lineup everyday.

Betterread
02-10-2008, 12:09 PM
Breakout players: Homer Bailey and Bill Bray
Bust: Its not really a bust prediction but...I know how much the Reds need a good 3b and I love his swing, but I don't believe Encarnacion will ever be an above average ML 3B. I think he will be what we have seen - an average 3B with the ability to get hot with the bat but just not enough of a consistent power hitter or run producer to be above average.

TC81190
02-10-2008, 01:32 PM
Breakout:
1) Edinson Volquez - I was iffy on this kid, until I watched videos of him pitching last night. He's got devastating movement on his pitches and can bring just pure heat. He realy could post an ERA in the low 4s or maybe even high 3s.

2) Jay Bruce - Kind of an easy pick, I suppose. I think he comes up and just lights it up right out of the gate, a la Ryan Braun of last year. Actually, that's probably a good comp' for him. I expect about same numbers in terms of AVG and walks, maybe 5 or 10 less HR though.

3) Homer Bailey - I think he gets his control issues in check and starts hitting the strike zone with his killer curveball. That's really all he needs to do to get on a roll in the majors.

Bust:
1) Edwin Encarnacion - I really don't like having to predict this one. But I think he kind of repeats last year in the sense that he has a horrible first couple months or so and kind of turns it on. Which might be satisfactory to some; but Edwin really was an out machine during that cold streak he hit. And some have already observed from videos of him playing in the winter leagues that it looks like he's trying to pull everything, again.

2) Bronson Arroyo - I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say that Bronson declines a little more in his 3rd year with us. He was effective last year when he wasn't injured, but that's the thing; Dusty is going to let Bronson rack up high pitch counts, which really seemed to hurt him last year. After that 120-130 pitch outing in San Diego last year, Bronson was terrible for his next 6 or 7 starts. I think we could see similar results this year, and maybe even a 15-day DL stint at some point.

3) Ken Griffey Jr. - Jr. has been productive when healthy with the Reds. But I think even that won't ring true this year. He started out with a torrid first half to last year, then saw a noticeable decline in bat speed (and production) as the year closed. I think Jr. kind of does a bit of a repeat of 06': solid, but nothing spectacular.

SMcGavin
02-10-2008, 08:16 PM
Breakout:
1. Matt Belisle. The stuff is there, the peripherals are there. He steps up to a solid league average starter - think 200 innings and 4.40 ERA.
2. Bill Bray. I've loved this guy ever since we picked him up. Nearly 8 K/9 in a Reds uniform and he's got decent enough control too. In 2008 Bray is the best Reds reliever not named Cordero.
3. Johnny Cueto. His production has matched (or surpassed) that of Homer Bailey, but without the hype. He makes his ML debut in 2008 and is very impressive. We go into 2009 with Cueto as part of the rotation and Bailey still a question mark with great potential.

Bust:
1. Brandon Phillips. After a very good 2007 people crowned him the Reds' best player. He'll be a valuable player in 2008 but don't expect a repeat of that .485 slugging percentage or 30 more homers. A plus defender with an average bat, but nothing more.
2. Joey Votto. I like the kid and don't think he's gonna have a bad year or anything, but I think his awesome September set the bar a little high. We should be thrilled if he matches the production of Hatteberg's 2007.
3. Norris Hopper. Maybe it's not really a bust since a lot of people are expecting it. I wouldn't be shocked to see him back in AAA before 2008 is through.

smoke6
02-10-2008, 09:30 PM
Breakout: Jay Bruce
Bust: EE

NorrisHopper30
02-10-2008, 09:43 PM
My breakout players are:

EdE
Coffey
Bailey

My bust is Gonzo

Ahhhorsepoo
02-11-2008, 11:36 AM
Adam Dunn can't be a bust for me.. as he was never great.. he will continue to be above average.. and with a tore up knee his speed in the field will be even worse..

Degenerate39
02-11-2008, 12:52 PM
Adam Dunn can't be a bust for me.. as he was never great.. he will continue to be above average.. and with a tore up knee his speed in the field will be even worse..

He had surgery to fix his torn up knee. His knee will be healthy this season.

flash
02-11-2008, 02:29 PM
breakout- C Ryan Hannigan- Whenever he has regular playing time he has batted around .300 in the minors.

Bust David Ross

Redlegs
02-11-2008, 05:33 PM
For the sake of the club, I truly hope Homer Bailey has the biggest breakout season. If he pitches well, I think this team can contend for the division title.

Redlegs
02-11-2008, 05:34 PM
Bust David RossDon't forget, the position of catcher is more than just swingin' the wood.

mlbfan30
02-11-2008, 07:11 PM
I'm going to give a great argument why Belisle could be on the verge of a breakout season. I'm going to compare Players X and Belisle (2007) 1st years as full time starters. I'm not going to say who is who because they are so close. Player X is now considered a big time ace.

First, let's compare age / innings going into the season
26 - 154.666
27 - 134.333
Player A is 1 year younger and pitched a little more, but it's very close.

Next we look at
GS/Innings/IP per Start/CG during that season
28 - 161 - 5.75 - 1
30 - 177.6 - 5.92 1
Player A pitched less and didn't go as deep into games. Player B does better

Now we'll look at
K/9 - BB/9 - K/BB - HR/9
6.99 2.96 2.36 1.45
6.33 2.18 2.91 1.32
Player A will strike more people out, but has worse control. Player A is also more prone to giving up the HR. It's a slight edge to player B.

Next we'll do
BA OBP SLG OPS
.280 .337 .483 .820
.301 .343 .482 .825
A gives up less hits, but the OBP/SLG/OPS are all fairly close. A has the edge.

How about some sabermetrics.
NRA / RAA / PRAA / PRAR / DERA
4.85 / -6 / -4 / 40 / 4.73
5.01 / -9 / -6 / 37 / 4.84
You might not know these, but it's close either way. These mostly compare players to replacement level, or adjusted against the league. Player A has the slight edge.

Or for you really old fashion people.
W L ERA *ERA+ WHIP
10 9 4.86 88 1.429
8 9 5.32 88 1.435
W/L is very close. You might think the ERA is very different, but the ERA+ is exactly the same, which adjusts for league average ERA and ballpark. The WHIP is also the same. It's even

How about what hitters do off them
GB/FB LD% GB% FB%
1.09 19.6 % 41.9 % 38.5 %
1.15 22.0 % 41.8 % 36.3 %
Player A gives up less line drives, but more fly balls. It's very close depending what you want in a pitcher. Player A might have a slight edge.

More sabermetrics
*PRC FIP xFIP Win Shares
57 4.48 4.38 4
60 4.54 4.32 4
PRC is pitching runs created, in the same context as the hitting RC stat. FIP and xFIP are fielding and expected fielding independent ERAs. These are very close overall, I'd call it even.

How about what they throw. (From Data 2007)
Pitch / Speed (A - B)
Fastball - 90.73 - 92.2
Curveball - 73.79 - 75.23
Slider - 83.15 - 83.98
Splitter - N/A - 87.82
Player A doesn't throw as hard, and only has 3 pitches. The pitch selection and speeds are almost identical. Player B does better.


Basically, any single stat I could possibly use, they come out to be even. It's so close its indistinguishable as to who is who. Player A may or may not be Belisle. They both started late, and both had exactly the same season. This X player is considered one of the best starting pitchers in baseball right now. Every stat and peripheral, from tradition to sabermetrics are the same, even the types pitches they throw.

Now... who want's to tell me who this player X is. And once player X is found, what makes him so different from Belisle that makes you think Belisle has no shot of becoming a top tier starter.

CRedsLarkin11
02-11-2008, 08:16 PM
Breakout players:

Bronson Arroyo With an improved bullpen(albeit slightly) and the addition of Cordero I see less blown opportunities for Arroyo. His record will look much better and his numbers should improve as well. He pitched really well down the stretch last season.

Homer Bailey This really is just a hunch pick but I think he has to have a breakout year for this team to succeed. He showed some flashes of brilliance, hopefully he puts it together this year.

Joey Votto Of course, this is if he is not traded beforehand but he really played well when called upon late last season and I think his time to shine is now.

Busts:

Brandon Phillips This really pains me to say but I think it will be hard for him to put the same type of numbers up. He will still play well but I'm not sure it will be to the same standard.

Matt Belisle He's going to have to be decent or this team will be seriously hurting. I hope he improves but since I had to pick 3 busts I really see him putting up similar numbers to last season.

David Weathers I don't like putting him on here at all but it would almost be the Reds luck that he would fall off after the acquisition of a real closer.

Here's to '08 and hoping I'm eating crow on all my "busts"

donnelly_31
02-11-2008, 08:37 PM
Breakout- edinson volquez

Bust- Juan Castro- this guy has no business being on a major league roster I'd rather have fidel castro

mlbfan30
02-11-2008, 08:43 PM
Breakout- edinson volquez

Bust- Juan Castro- this guy has no business being on a major league roster I'd rather have fidel castro

Bust assumes he has done something in the past.

OUReds
02-11-2008, 09:30 PM
I'm going to give a great argument why Belisle could be on the verge of a breakout season. I'm going to compare Players X and Belisle (2007) 1st years as full time starters. I'm not going to say who is who because they are so close. Player X is now considered a big time ace.

Aaron Harang made tremendous strides the next two years, decreasing his WHIP by .2 in 2005, then increasing his k/9 by 1.4 in 2006 to become the pitcher we all know and love. I'm not sure such improvement is typical/can be expected for Belisle. What if he regresses?

I believe Belisle was a year older then Harang while posting these numbers as well, not a huge deal perhaps, but a factor.

I know all the data says Belisle was unlucky last year, but if he's a solid number 4 next year I'll be thrilled. Love to be proved wrong of course.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 10:15 PM
I dont know why so many people are down on Matt. He pitched lots of IP, had solid K/bb ratio, and has quality pitches. I give him a solid amount of slack because of hes had 1 year as a starter and with out his July blow up he posted a era 4.99 with a 1.38 whip.

Maybe im just picking stats to support my claim but he did have his 3 shortest starts last year in a 4 game stretch.

Do what you will with that.

OUReds
02-11-2008, 11:44 PM
I'm not down on Matt. He is what he is, a young pitcher with the peripherals of a #4 starter, the results of a #5, and the hope of getting better.

What I'm wary of is projecting him as a top of the rotation starter. He may comp well with a developing Harang (though at an older age), but Harang's improvement is not typical. I think you're setting yourself up for disapointment if you expect him to be a solid number 3 next year.

If Belisle can turn in an average back of the rotation starter type season, that would be an improvement over last year in actual results, and a more realistic expectation.

And yes, you are cherry picking your stats here. If you discard his worst month, are you going to throw out his best also? Lots of pitchers look better if you start ignoring their worst starts.

AmarilloRed
02-11-2008, 11:54 PM
Breakout- Homer Bailey. A healthy Homer has a good chance to reach 150 IP, a 4.50 ERA, and 10-12 wins.

Matt Belisle. He will never be a top of the rotation starter, but he can be a successful #4 this year.

Bust- Gary Majewski- This will be Gary's last year in Cincinnati.

Bip Roberts
02-11-2008, 11:59 PM
I'm not down on Matt. He is what he is, a young pitcher with the peripherals of a #4 starter, the results of a #5, and the hope of getting better.

What I'm wary of is projecting him as a top of the rotation starter. He may comp well with a developing Harang (though at an older age), but Harang's improvement is not typical. I think you're setting yourself up for disapointment if you expect him to be a solid number 3 next year.

If Belisle can turn in an average back of the rotation starter type season, that would be an improvement over last year in actual results, and a more realistic expectation.

And yes, you are cherry picking your stats here. If you discard his worst month, are you going to throw out his best also? Lots of pitchers look better if you start ignoring their worst starts.

If those starts were during random parts of the season I wouldn't cherry pick them out honestly. His worst month was actually June. His shortest outings were in July. Hes not Kyle Lohse out there that any given night could throw a gem or get "blowed out" as Emmit Smith would say.

Belisle probably wont become top of the rotation guy and I dont expect it but hes had 1 year of experiance as a starter and should be expected to improve even if its to just a #3

mlbfan30
02-12-2008, 12:38 AM
You might want to say Belisle can't become like Harang, but it's entirely possibly.

The key thing is their similar pitching styles. Both have very good BB rates and control. They have the same pitch selection with pretty much the same speeds. Belisle has more horizontal movement, while Harang vertical movement, but it's relatively close. The 1 year age difference into their 1st full season isn't a big deal. It might be if they both were younger, but once you get past 25 the pitcher doesn't have anything left to prove and is up to the team to give them a chance. By that time an extra year of development means very little. It basically all comes down to limiting the big inning. Harang has been very good at that, while Belisle hasn't yet. But another year of experience should help.

I think Belisle can be just as much of a innings eater type that Harang is because of his excellent control. Belisle throws less pitches per PA, and only .2 pitches more per IP. However he threw 12 less pitches per game. (all 2007). The big component is that Belisle was a relief pitcher in 2005 and 2006, so it's reasonable that he won't throw 100+ pitches a game everytime. But next year he'll have another full season of so fatigue shouldnt be as much of an issue. He will go deeper into games, guaranteed.

Bip Roberts
02-12-2008, 12:44 AM
Harang has always put up better numbers than Belisle though. I mean its possible I just dont think its very possible.

Belisle is fairly consistent and should improve his ip, which should drop his ERA down.

I wonder how many homers Belisle gave up higher in the pitch counts compared to other starters.